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Democrats Republicans 40 60 V18, N14 Monday, Nov. 5, 2012 Final HPI Forecast: Donnelly, Pence Mourdock disaster shows signs of impacting races down ballot By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Howey Politics Indiana is forecasting a Democratic U.S. Senate seat pickup in Indiana as Joe Donnel- ly is likely to defeat Republican Richard Mourdock, probably in the 7 to 9% plurality range. The most fascinating 11th hour dynamic is the RMDE - the Richard Mourdock Disaster Effect - that is impacting the Indiana gubernatorial and other down ballot races. The impact is that Mourdock’s “God intends” ated independent and female voters. rape remark is likely to devour any notion of a GOP “wave” Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground pollsters in the gubernatorial and Indiana House races. Christine Matthews, a Republican, and Fred Yang, a Demo- It could also impact the 2nd CD race where Demo- crat, both believe the Senate race will tighten up from the cratic Party tracking had Donnelly winning big and Brendan Oct. 28-30 survey that had Donnelly leading 47-36%. HPI Mullen within 2% of Republican favorite Jackie Walorski. believes that some of the undecided GOP voters will return While the pro-life and evangelical movements have embraced Mourdock, we believe that Mourdock has alien- Continued on page 4 A teachable moment in polling By BRIAN A. HOWEY NASHVILLE, Ind. – When you have $25 million of mostly outside, special interest money spilling into a U.S. Senate race, it isn’t surprising that emotions run high with the investment, particularly when one ‘‘Obama has temporarily been a campaign realizes it is about to lose. bipartisan figure this week. He On Friday, we watched the cam- paign of Republican U.S. Senate has been comforter-in-chief and nominee Richard Mourdock, wobbling that helps.” like an Iranian centrifuge, take shots at the credibility of our fourth poll of - Karl Rove this cycle, the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll. Our complete analy- sis of this polling data and our survey HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012 top lines can be found at the top of poll showed Lugar trailing Mourdock this homepage under the “Howey/De- 48-38%. With that data, I forecast Pauw” tab at www.howeypolitics.com. that Mourdock would not only win, but The Mourdock campaign probably in landslide fashion. And he suggested we were “backtracking” on did, 61-39%. But Howey Politics Indi- www.HoweyPolitics.com the results that showed Democrat Joe ana subscribers had the most accurate Donnelly leading 47-36%. They de- forecast in Indiana. I work for my sub- manded we release our cross tabula- scribers. I am a capitalist journalist. Howey Politics tions, the data set that represents the 3. In order to provide Indiana statistical underpinnings of any poll. the best data set I could, I put is a non-partisan newsletter I find no necessity to defend together a polling team of Mat- based in Indianapolis and this poll or any of the three others we thews and Yang. Matthews was the Nashville, Ind. It was founded conducted this year. Nor do I have pollster for Gov. Mitch Daniels and to defend the integrity of our polling she has also polled for the Indiana in 1994 in Fort Wayne. team, Republican Christine Matthews Republican Party and Chairman Eric It is published by and Democrat pollster Fred Yang. Holcomb. I am confident that both WWWHowey Media, LLC Instead, I view this as a Daniels and Holcomb would confirm “teachable moment.” It’s a good op- what I will say now, that Christine Brian A. Howey, Publisher portunity to talk about polling in the Matthews is a consummate profession- context of an intense political race. al. Fred Yang has polled for Indiana Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Here are some things I believe Democrats, Gov. Frank O’Bannon, Jack E. Howey, editor you should know. Mayor Bart Peterson and Indiana 1. I am in the information House Democrats. In my view as a Subscriptions business, not the propaganda political analyst, Fred Yang is one of business. I have published Howey the best pollsters there is. He is smart, $350 annually HPI Weekly Politics Indiana since 1994. My sub- sharp and has wonderful insights. The $550 annually HPI Weekly and scribers pay good money to read intriguing part about this team was HPI Daily Wire. analysis, commentary and accurate that Christine and Fred had wanted to 'Call Adrian France election forecasts. If I were to go into work on a project together and saw 812.455.4070 or email the propaganda business, I would end this as a unique opportunity to do so. up going out of business. HPI readers are the beneficiaries of [email protected] 2. I actually wear several this extraordinary union. hats. In addition to publishing Howey 4. Battleground polling is Contact HPI Politics Indiana, a bipartisan newslet- a great concept. Not that there were Howey Politics Indiana ter and website, I also write a news- trust issues, but when you write a poll, paper column that appears on opinion the wording, sequence and then de- www.howeypolitics.com pages and reaches 300,000 readers velop the data receiving after the sur- [email protected] weekly. Since it is published on opinion vey, it adds integrity when you have a pages, I have the opportunity to ex- Republican and Democrat working in 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 press, though not inflict, my opinion. tandem. There are a number of these 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 In 2011 and through the May primary “battleground polls” where we find this year, my newspaper readers knew pollsters like Bill McInturff and Stan 'Washington: 703.248.0909 that I supported the reelection of U.S. Greenburg, or Ed Goeas and Celinda 'Business Office:812.455.4070 Sen. Dick Lugar. I explained why on Lake working together. When HPI a number of occasions. In April and brought Matthews and Yang together, © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. again in May of this year, I published it was the first time in Indiana that the All rights reserved. Photocopy- the first two Howey/DePauw polls. “battleground” concept has been used. The first one showed Lugar leading 5. We had an informal ing, Internet forwarding, fax- Richard Mourdock 42-35%. With that oversight board in conjunction ing or reproducing in any form, data, I moved the Senate race from with DePauw University. On this whole or part, is a violation of “leans Lugar” to “tossup.” An incum- board are John Hammond III, who federal law without permission bent at 42% reveals his vulnerability. is a Republican National Committee- from the publisher. v In May, the second Howey/DePauw man and 7th CD chairman, and Dave HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012 Bohmer, who heads the DePauw University Pulliam Center achieve a propaganda purpose. I guess we’ll just have to of Contemporary Media and is also Putnam County Demo- wait until Tuesday evening to see how things settle. I will cratic chairman. Another part of our oversight team is John say that the Howey/DePauw data corresponds with the Willey of Anthem, one of our corporate sponsors. Willey events on and after the Oct. 23 debate, what we hear from is a former Hancock County Republican chairman. I can Republicans, voters, as well as the conduct of both the guarantee you HPI, our sponsors and our DePauw affilia- Donnelly and Mourdock campaigns. tion would never give the imprimatur 9. The Mourdock campaign demanded of fixing the numbers or cooking the HPI release our cross-tabulations. books to achieve a partisan outcome. We never do. They are worth a lot of As you can see, there are a series of dough. Hey, Mourdock, go get your own checks and balances associated with cross tabs. Or have Chris Chocola do it the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battle- for you. Nor did the Indianapolis Star, ground Poll. WTHR-TV, WISH-TV, WSBT-TV and the 6. Polling is a “snap- South Bend Tribune release cross tabs shot in time.” It reflects what is when they polled. The cross tabulations going on with likely voters for the are proprietary. They allow our analysts to time period our pollsters are in the see why a head-to-head number occurs. field. In the case of our latest poll, When we see Richard Mourdock attracting we were in the field Oct. 28-30. only 17% of independents and only 70% What we published on Friday was of Republicans, that gives us a statisti- a “snapshot.” But after we finished cal understanding of how Joe Donnelly polling, the electorate still evolves. In had jetted out between Oct. 28-30 to an the Senate race, for instance, there 11% lead. Will he have an 11% lead on were 11% undecided. They won’t Saturday? Or Tuesday? No one can know, stay undecided. So while we have unless you do daily tracking, which I can’t Donnelly leading Mourdock 47-36%, afford. We won’t have a reliable outcome none of us believe that will be the until Tuesday night, when the actual votes final outcome. The race will continue are counted. To release cross tabulations Howey/DePauw pollsters Christine Mat- to evolve. What this snapshot did for into an active political environment is to thews and Fred Yang at DePauw Univer- me, a political analyst, was to give transform our data from informational to sity on Super Tuesday last March. me a look at trends involving likely propaganda. Howey/DePauw is not into voters, and I will make a forecast for funding political campaigns.
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