V18, N14 Monday, Nov. 5, 2012 Final HPI Forecast: Donnelly, Pence Mourdock disaster shows signs of impacting races down ballot By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Howey Politics Indiana is forecasting a Democratic U.S. Senate seat pickup in Indiana as Joe Donnel- ly is likely to defeat Republican Richard Mourdock, probably in the 7 to 9% plurality range. The most fascinating 11th hour dynamic is the RMDE - the Richard Mourdock Disaster Effect - that is impacting the Indiana gubernatorial and other down ballot races. The impact is that Mourdock’s “God intends” ated independent and female voters. rape remark is likely to devour any notion of a GOP “wave” Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground pollsters in the gubernatorial and Indiana House races. Christine Matthews, a Republican, and Fred Yang, a Demo- It could also impact the 2nd CD race where Demo- crat, both believe the Senate race will tighten up from the cratic Party tracking had Donnelly winning big and Brendan Oct. 28-30 survey that had Donnelly leading 47-36%. HPI Mullen within 2% of Republican favorite Jackie Walorski. believes that some of the undecided GOP voters will return While the pro-life and evangelical movements have embraced Mourdock, we believe that Mourdock has alien- Continued on page 4 A teachable moment in polling

By BRIAN A. HOWEY NASHVILLE, Ind. – When you have $25 million of mostly outside, special interest money spilling into a U.S. Senate race, it isn’t surprising that emotions run high with the investment, particularly when one ‘‘Obama has temporarily been a campaign realizes it is about to lose. bipartisan figure this week. He On Friday, we watched the cam- paign of Republican U.S. Senate has been comforter-in-chief and nominee Richard Mourdock, wobbling that helps.” like an Iranian centrifuge, take shots at the credibility of our fourth poll of - Karl Rove this cycle, the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll. Our complete analy- sis of this polling data and our survey HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

top lines can be found at the top of poll showed Lugar trailing Mourdock this homepage under the “Howey/De- 48-38%. With that data, I forecast Pauw” tab at www.howeypolitics.com. that Mourdock would not only win, but The Mourdock campaign probably in landslide fashion. And he suggested we were “backtracking” on did, 61-39%. But Howey Politics Indi- www.HoweyPolitics.com the results that showed Democrat Joe ana subscribers had the most accurate Donnelly leading 47-36%. They de- forecast in Indiana. I work for my sub- manded we release our cross tabula- scribers. I am a capitalist journalist. Howey Politics tions, the data set that represents the 3. In order to provide Indiana statistical underpinnings of any poll. the best data set I could, I put is a non-partisan newsletter I find no necessity to defend together a polling team of Mat- based in Indianapolis and this poll or any of the three others we thews and Yang. Matthews was the Nashville, Ind. It was founded conducted this year. Nor do I have pollster for Gov. Mitch Daniels and to defend the integrity of our polling she has also polled for the Indiana in 1994 in Fort Wayne. team, Republican Christine Matthews Republican Party and Chairman Eric It is published by and Democrat pollster Fred Yang. Holcomb. I am confident that both WWWHowey Media, LLC Instead, I view this as a Daniels and Holcomb would confirm “teachable moment.” It’s a good op- what I will say now, that Christine Brian A. Howey, Publisher portunity to talk about polling in the Matthews is a consummate profession- context of an intense political race. al. Fred Yang has polled for Indiana Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Here are some things I believe Democrats, Gov. Frank O’Bannon, Jack E. Howey, editor you should know. Mayor Bart Peterson and Indiana 1. I am in the information House Democrats. In my view as a Subscriptions business, not the propaganda political analyst, Fred Yang is one of business. I have published Howey the best pollsters there is. He is smart, $350 annually HPI Weekly Politics Indiana since 1994. My sub- sharp and has wonderful insights. The $550 annually HPI Weekly and scribers pay good money to read intriguing part about this team was HPI Daily Wire. analysis, commentary and accurate that Christine and Fred had wanted to 'Call Adrian France election forecasts. If I were to go into work on a project together and saw 812.455.4070 or email the propaganda business, I would end this as a unique opportunity to do so. up going out of business. HPI readers are the beneficiaries of [email protected] 2. I actually wear several this extraordinary union. hats. In addition to publishing Howey 4. Battleground polling is Contact HPI Politics Indiana, a bipartisan newslet- a great concept. Not that there were Howey Politics Indiana ter and website, I also write a news- trust issues, but when you write a poll, paper column that appears on opinion the wording, sequence and then de- www.howeypolitics.com pages and reaches 300,000 readers velop the data receiving after the sur- [email protected] weekly. Since it is published on opinion vey, it adds integrity when you have a pages, I have the opportunity to ex- Republican and Democrat working in 'Howey’s Cabin: 812.988.6520 press, though not inflict, my opinion. tandem. There are a number of these 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 In 2011 and through the May primary “battleground polls” where we find this year, my newspaper readers knew pollsters like Bill McInturff and Stan 'Washington: 703.248.0909 that I supported the reelection of U.S. Greenburg, or Ed Goeas and Celinda 'Business Office:812.455.4070 Sen. Dick Lugar. I explained why on Lake working together. When HPI a number of occasions. In April and brought Matthews and Yang together, © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. again in May of this year, I published it was the first time in Indiana that the All rights reserved. Photocopy- the first two Howey/DePauw polls. “battleground” concept has been used. The first one showed Lugar leading 5. We had an informal ing, Internet forwarding, fax- Richard Mourdock 42-35%. With that oversight board in conjunction ing or reproducing in any form, data, I moved the Senate race from with DePauw University. On this whole or part, is a violation of “leans Lugar” to “tossup.” An incum- board are John Hammond III, who federal law without permission bent at 42% reveals his vulnerability. is a Republican National Committee- from the publisher. v In May, the second Howey/DePauw man and 7th CD chairman, and Dave HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

Bohmer, who heads the DePauw University Pulliam Center achieve a propaganda purpose. I guess we’ll just have to of Contemporary Media and is also Putnam County Demo- wait until Tuesday evening to see how things settle. I will cratic chairman. Another part of our oversight team is John say that the Howey/DePauw data corresponds with the Willey of Anthem, one of our corporate sponsors. Willey events on and after the Oct. 23 debate, what we hear from is a former Hancock County Republican chairman. I can Republicans, voters, as well as the conduct of both the guarantee you HPI, our sponsors and our DePauw affilia- Donnelly and Mourdock campaigns. tion would never give the imprimatur 9. The Mourdock campaign demanded of fixing the numbers or cooking the HPI release our cross-tabulations. books to achieve a partisan outcome. We never do. They are worth a lot of As you can see, there are a series of dough. Hey, Mourdock, go get your own checks and balances associated with cross tabs. Or have Chris Chocola do it the Howey/DePauw Indiana Battle- for you. Nor did the Indianapolis Star, ground Poll. WTHR-TV, WISH-TV, WSBT-TV and the 6. Polling is a “snap- South Bend Tribune release cross tabs shot in time.” It reflects what is when they polled. The cross tabulations going on with likely voters for the are proprietary. They allow our analysts to time period our pollsters are in the see why a head-to-head number occurs. field. In the case of our latest poll, When we see Richard Mourdock attracting we were in the field Oct. 28-30. only 17% of independents and only 70% What we published on Friday was of Republicans, that gives us a statisti- a “snapshot.” But after we finished cal understanding of how Joe Donnelly polling, the electorate still evolves. In had jetted out between Oct. 28-30 to an the Senate race, for instance, there 11% lead. Will he have an 11% lead on were 11% undecided. They won’t Saturday? Or Tuesday? No one can know, stay undecided. So while we have unless you do daily tracking, which I can’t Donnelly leading Mourdock 47-36%, afford. We won’t have a reliable outcome none of us believe that will be the until Tuesday night, when the actual votes final outcome. The race will continue are counted. To release cross tabulations Howey/DePauw pollsters Christine Mat- to evolve. What this snapshot did for into an active political environment is to thews and Fred Yang at DePauw Univer- me, a political analyst, was to give transform our data from informational to sity on Super Tuesday last March. me a look at trends involving likely propaganda. Howey/DePauw is not into voters, and I will make a forecast for funding political campaigns. The data will my readers based partially on this data. be used for research and forecasting purposes. 7. Races do evolve. On Friday, the Mourdock 10. Why do we poll? Again, to give my paid campaign pointed to our May survey in which we had him subscribers a trending analysis on what is likely to happen. leading Lugar 48-38%. But he won by 61-39%. They said Howey Politics Indiana is one of the smallest media enti- this proves our poll was inaccurate. C’mon, man. In our ties in this state, but we were the only ones with a credible forecasting analysis, we told HPI subscribers that Mourdock polling program for the cycle. I like sharing the data with was likely on his way to a landslide. And he was. No one the masses. Most of the time, it allows us to make accu- on our team expected the race to remain at 48-38%. rate predictions. Every once in a while, a political race will 8. We release survey top lines. The top lines evolve in the intervening time and the outcome will differ are the sequence of questions that are asked, how they from the polling snapshot. That is what we call an “upset.” are worded, and the demographic nature of the poll We hope that doesn’t happen, though occasionally even respondents including party affiliation, race, age, gender, the best pollsters will experience such a scenario. And geography. Top lines also allow readers to discern whether that’s the beauty of human nature. No one can ever predict this is a credible poll, or whether it was “pushed,” that is, human nature every time. when a leading and controversial question is asked before Am I backing away from the Howey/DePauw Poll we ask the head-to-head “who are you going to vote for?” we released on Friday? No way. Or, perhaps more emphati- Pushed polls are for propaganda, designed to achieve an cally stated, hell no! It is a vital part of the process. It’s a artificial outcome as opposed to providing snapshot infor- fascinating view into the evolving human condition when mation. Some observers will look at the McLaughlin survey we survey, and when people, sometimes emotionally, react. the Mourdock campaign released on Friday showing the v Republican leading and surmise that it was “pushed” to HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

favorable to 42% unfavorable. Forecast, from page 1 In the superintendent of public instruction race, Republican incumbent Tony Bennett had a mere 40-36% to the fold. lead over Democrat Glenda Ritz, whose campaign reported However, anectdotally we continue to hear stories a vigorous reaction over the weekend to those polling of GOP voters planning to “scratch” on the race or vote for numbers. And while some observers see a potential upset, Libertarian Andrew Horning. We’ve heard stories of callers high ranking sources in both parties believe that Pence will at the Indiana GOP “Victory Centers” spending much time ultimately pull Bennett in, just as Gov. Mitch Daniels did in dealing with the Mourdock fallout as the push the state 2008. ticket. However, keep in mind that while Daniels had a HPI believes that Mourdock also alientated women 18% plurality in 2008 and Bennett’s was just 2%, Pence is with the debate rape remark, and the October survey bears likely not to have the double digit coattails. But Bennett will that out. In the September poll, Donnelly not be fighting the headwind had a 6% point lead among women, bal- that he had in 2008. looning to 18% - 50-32% - in the survey released last week. HPI is still forecasting a Mike U.S. Senate: Record Pence gubernatorial victory, but the likeli- money continues hood is that his triumph will be more in the The life movement and Republican Super 50-45% range than in the double digits, PACs, already having invested heavily in which was conventional wisdom throughout the self-destructing Mourdock, poured more the summer and early fall. Last week, we money in the final days. Evansville Courier were struck by the fact that in the Howey/ & Press reporter Eric Bradner reported: On DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll and in the airwaves over the last week, American Pence’s internal poll, he never topped out Crossroads - former President George W. over 47%. Bush aide Karl Rove’s group - is spending Since Pence called for Mourdock to the most, at $1.53 million. Combined with apologize on Oct. 24 after the debate rape Rove’s sister group, Crossroads GPS, the fisaco, the congressman has backtracked two are spending $5.3 million on Indiana’s and last week was actually embracing the Senate race. The second-biggest spender in controversial Senate nominee. He may take the final week will be the National Republi- a political hit for doing so. can Senatorial Committee, which is invest- Democrat John Gregg may have ing $1.5 million. A close third and fourth waited too long to break out of his Sand- are two Democratic groups - the Senate born TV ad format and go into Majority PAC, the supergroup run the attack contrasting ads that we by a former Senate Majority Leader believe have tightened this race, Harry Reid aide, with $1.3 mil- though probably not into the upset lion, and the Democratic Senato- zone. rial Campaign Committee, at $1.2 “If I were Mike Pence, I million. Those two groups have would worry about my margin,” topped $4 million each on the race said Indiana Democratic Chairman so far. One huge Republican group Dan Parker. that bolstered Mourdock in the Pence has not responded primary, the Club for Growth, has in kind to two Gregg assaults: one spent more than $5 million on the TV ad tying Pence to Mourdock, race, but is trailing other groups and another to the Tea Party. with $383,000 on the air in the last Parker said this morning, “Pence week. not responding to the Tea Party On Saturday and Sunday, Fort and Mourdock ads was very dan- Wayne businessman and philan- gerous.” thropist Daryle Doden ran full-page Howey/DePauw polling newspaper ads in 11 publica- showed the Tea Party unpopular tions - the Indianapolis Star, South with Hoosier voters with a 27% Bend Tribune, Fort Wayne Journal HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

Gazette, Post-Tribune, Times of Northwest Indiana, Evans- wrongs do not make a right. Each life is sacred. If an un- ville Courier & Press, Terre Haute Tribune-Star, Blooming- born life has no value, then neither your life nor mine has ton Herald-Times, Columbus Republic, Marion Chronicle- value. We the people should support those candidates for Tribune, Kokomo Tribune and the Jeffersonville Evening office who declare they will serve to protect and preserve News/Tribune. these God-given rights, chief among them the right to life.” Doden’s ad urged more than 850,000 households But by this morning, some Republicans were con- receiving those newspapers to “vote morally on Tuesday.” cerned about the newspaper ad’s impact on female voters Doden explained, “Mr. Mourdock, with courage and com- and independents. passion, reminded us that . . . We are a moral people. Two On Saturday, Mourdock attended a “laying on of HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday Nov. 5, 2012

the hands” revival in Selma, Ind., attended by 200 and But if there’s a John Gregg surge in the gubernatorial race, conducted by Muncie evangelist Andrew Phipps, according Battles could benefit. to Rick Yencer of the Muncie Free Press. The media was House Republicans believe that Hal Schlager in banned from the event, with a Mourdock supporter telling HD15 and Martin Carbaugh in HD81 against State Rep. Win Yencer, “You are trouble.” Moses are moving in the right direction, but we still view Moses and Tommuy O’Donnell in HD15 as strong candi- Indiana House Races dates both working hard. They both get a slight edge. We believe the Richard Mourdock impact is now We see State Reps. Jack Lutz and Cindy Noe as being felt in down ballot races, essentially taking the Re- potential upset victims susceptible to the “Mourdock disas- publican “wave” away. ter.” Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker said, “The The State Democratic Party and the House Demo- Mourdock effect will be felt heavyist in Marion County.” cratic Caucus sent out a total Republicans believe that Bill Fine in HD12 of more than $250,000 to Tom is coming on strong, but unsure whether he O’Donnell (HD15), Shelli Van- can get over the hump. Denburgh (HD19), Katie Morgan Republicans believe that Peggy Mayfield (HD31), Phil Pflum (HD56), Jim is poised for victory over State Rep. Peggy McCormick (HD69), Mike Schrief- Welch, in part because of a huge Morgan er (HD74), and Trent VanHaaften County early vote. But Parker believes that (HD76). Welch might pull off the “upset of the night.” HPI is forecasting a Re- Democrat tracking there had Welch up 1%. publican majority of between 60 HRCC also believes that State Rep. Wendy and 63 seats. McNamara has maintained her polling lead It goes beyond Mour- over Trent Van Haaften. dock. Pence not pushing back at In HD92, Democrats sent mailers out tying the Gregg campaign’s tying the Republican to Mourdock - Republican Tim Motsinger to convicted busi- honoring a long-standing pledge not to go negative - also nessman Tim Durham, who has been in the news lately as has the potential of impacting down ballot races. his attorneys object to a proposed 225 year sentence. We Indiana Democrats began running “two peas in a see Macer as a very slight favorite. pod” ads and mailers against Republicans like Cindy Noe and Jack Lutz featuring those legislators and Mourdock. Indiana Senate We have taken the six tossup races from last week Again, the Mourdock Disaster impact is poised to and created “Tossup Leans R” and “Tossup Lean D” for have a bearing on two Marion County Senate races involv- forecasting purposes, but keep in mind that these races are ing State Sens. Scott Schneider and Brent Waltz. all close and could go either way. Of the two, Schneider may be more vulnerable We believe that State Rep. Bruce Borders has a because he was appointed to the Senate seat, while Waltz slight edge over State Rep. Kreg Battles in HD45. The has more ballot familiarity. Democrats have had a provisional TV ad buy they have not HPI lists the Schneider-Tim DeLaney race “Leans acted on. Borders is polling very well in Sullivan County. DeLaney” and the Waltz/Sullivan race “Tossup.” v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

Indiana House Races Democrats Republicans 40 60

Pure Tossup HD42: Alan Morrison (R) v. Mark Spelbring (D)

Tossup Leans R HD45: Rep. B. Borders (R) v. Rep. K. Battles (D) HD60: Rep. P. Welch (D) v. Peggy Mayfield (R)

Tossup Leans D HD15: Tommy O’Donnell (D) v. Hal Schlager (R) HD35: Rep. Jack Lutz (R) v. Melanie Wright(D) HD81: Rep. W. Moses (D) v. Martin Carbaugh HD87: Rep. Cindy Noe (R) v. Christina Hale (D) HD92: Karlee Macer (D) v. Tim Motsinger (R)

Leans D HD12: Rep. M. Reardon (D) v. Bill Fine (R) HD19: Ron Johnson (R) v. Rep. S.VanDenBurghD) HD66: Rep. Terry Goodin (D) v..Justin Stevens (R) HD74: Mike Schriefer (D) v. Lloyd Arnold (R)

Leans R HD5: Dale DeVon (R) v. Jerod Warrnock (D) HD69: Jim McCormick (D) v. Jim Lucas (R) HD76: T. Van Haaften (D) v. W. McNamara (R)

Likely D HD34: Sue Erringon (D) vs. Brad Oliver (R) HD56: Rep. Phil Pflum (D) v. Dick Hamm (R) HD100: Dan Forestal (D) vs. Scott Keller (R)

Likely R HD31: Rep. Kevin Mahan (R) vs. Katie Morgan (D) Safe Democrats (23): Austin, DeLaney, Klinker, Lawson, Harris, C. Brown, Bauer, Niezgodski, Dvorak, Pelath, V. Smith, Moseley, Kersey, Pierce, Stemler, GiaQuinta, Pryor, Bartlett, Porter, Reicken, Summers. Incoming freshman: Justin Moed, Robin Shackelford

Republicans (60): Dermody, Clere. Heaton, Davisson, Karickhoff, Rhoads, Lehe, Kirchhofer, Baird, Ubel- hoer, McMillan, Bacon, Truitt, Morris, Heuer, Kubacki, Van Natter, Frye, Speedy, Messmer, Neese, Gutwein, Wolkins, Friend, J. Thompson, Richardson, Turner, Davis, Lutz, Torr, Steuerwald, T. Brown, Culver, Leonard, Cherry, Saunders, Soliday, Eberhart, Burton, M.Smith, Koch, Crouch, Lehman, Pond, Wesco, Bosma, Behning, Frizzell. Incoming freshmen: John Price, Todd Huston, Steven Braun, Timothy Harman, Rick Niemeyer, Sha- ron Negele, Dennis Zent, Ben Smaltz, Cindy Meyer Ziemke, Thomas Washburne, David Ober,

Bold faced races denote status change. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

Obama would be the first president ever who failed to win Three takes on the Obama an additional state in his successful reelection bid that he did not win in his initial victory. (We are not counting FDR’s third and fourth elections.) Meanwhile, after having placed Romney presidential race North Carolina in the Republican column for more than a Here are three takes on the presidential race: year, we have seen no indication that Obama really has a chance there, even though Romney’s margin of victory is Prof. Larry Sabato, University of Virgnia unlikely to be huge. We feel less confident about Florida, which teeters between Romney and toss-up status. Obama With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane could steal the Sunshine State from Romney if the Demo- Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack crat has an unexpectedly strong night. Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. With two-thirds of the votes likely already cast in Our final Electoral College projection has the president win- Nevada, Obama appears to have a solid lead in the Silver ning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New State. Our decision to move Nevada even more strongly Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping , into Obama’s column is bolstered by the state’s political with 290 electoral votes. guru Jon Ralston, who picked Obama to win his state on This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though Sunday. very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama Iowa and Wisconsin may very well be tight, as they in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a chal- were in 2000 and 2004. But these states have a Democratic lenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with lean (even Michael Dukakis won them in 1988), and ac- the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined cording to the poll averages, Obama has never trailed in ei- that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the ther state during this campaign. Recent surveys from cred- Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage ible, state-level pollsters (Ann Selzer in Iowa and Charles for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while Franklin in Wisconsin) show Obama with solid leads in both enabling Obama to dominate as states, and these results have presidential comforter-in-chief, reinforced our inclinations. assisted by his new bipartisan We have had Ohio in best friend, Gov. Obama’s column since late (R)? September, and nothing we Adding to the presi- have heard from our sources dent’s good fortune was a final in the Buckeye State has jobs report that was basically caused us to move it any- helpful because it wasn’t disas- where else. Like Iowa and trously bad -- that is, the un- Wisconsin, it may be excru- employment rate failed to jump ciatingly close, but we favor back above the psychologically Obama in all three. damaging level of 8%. Romney We believe the three clos- could have used that number to est states are Virginia, Colo- build a crescendo for change. rado and New Hampshire; in Instead, the final potential reality, all three are toss-ups, obstacle to Obama’s reelection but because we feel obligated passed by as a one-day story. to pick every state, we’re While Romney surged after splitting these 26 combined the first debate, he never quite electoral votes right down the closed the deal in the key swing middle -- 13 for Obama (nine states. And now, we believe he from Colorado and four from has run out of time. New Hampshire) and 13 for First, the easy ones. Romney from Virginia. It’s not Obama has no chance in Indiana very scientific, but in these and Missouri (the former he won three states the polling aver- and the latter he nearly cap- ages and our sources aren’t tured in 2008), nor in Arizona. giving us enough to work This guarantees that a victorious with. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

If Obama vantage reversed itself. In sweeps all three recent Washington Post/ of these very close ABC News tracking polls, states, he will win Obama has trailed Rom- 303 electoral votes. If ney among independent that number sounds voters by 16 to 20 per- familiar, it’s because centage points. Recent both Harry Truman in CBS polls also reported 1948 and John F. Ken- that Romney has led nedy in 1960 achieved Obama among indepen- the same total in the dents by 5% in Ohio, 6% Electoral College. In in Florida and a massive other words, it’s a lucky 21% in Virginia. number for Democratic If this lead presidential nominees. among independents held A footnote: through Election Day, Maine and Nebraska Romney would win these award their electoral states. Post-Sandy survey votes by congressional data, however, indicates district, and Romney the storm may have blown has an outside shot at away Romney’s advantage grabbing Maine’s Second with independents, at least District, just like Obama has an outside shot at Nebraska’s temporarily. Second (which he won in 2008). We don’t foresee an elec- The /GW Battleground Poll has the president toral vote split in either state this year, but these are worth pulling within 1 point among independent voters, 43% to watching Tuesday night for a possible surprise. 44%. Our own PurplePoll of swing states has the president taking a one point lead among purple state independents, Alex Castellanos, CNN 45% to 44%. However, the final NBC/WSJ national poll So it comes down to this: On Tuesday, the presi- reports that Romney is winning independents by 7 points. dent who can’t possibly win re-election confronts the chal- And the new CNN/ORC poll gives Romney a 22% lead with lenger who can’t possibly beat him. independents. Licensed, as I am, to pump gas and commit Who wins independents might depend upon punditry in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, I am whether Obama’s “Sandy bounce” was a real change or obligated to make a prediction. a temporary bump in the president’s fortunes. If voters Or, in other words: It’s time to guess. believe the president’s energetic response indicates he has Three weeks ago, on NBC’s “,” I learned a lesson and will be more responsive to them in a ventured that something happened at that Denver debate second term, this election could break Obama’s way. beyond President Barack Obama not showing up for work. Second, to identify the winner, we’d have to see The president, I noted, had never run a campaign whether Romney has closed the gender gap. to get re-elected, just a campaign to stop the other guy, The latest poll has Romney eras- Mitt Romney, from getting elected. When the Romney who ing a 16-point gender gap in the past month. Pew Research arrived to debate was not the sulfur-breathing demon the tells us Romney’s and Obama’s favorability ratings among president had led us to expect, Obama was left with no women voters are now nearly equal. Pew analyst Michael campaign at all. “This is a man with two empty holsters,” I Dimock expects the gender gap “to look very similar to the noted. “His campaign could collapse.” last few election cycles, with women somewhere between I think it did. 6 and 8 points to favor Obama, and fairly consistent Then an unexpected voter named Sandy resuscitat- with where we’ve been since 1980.” Our own post-Sandy ed Obama’s campaign. What factors must we understand in PurplePoll has Romney closing the gender gap to 7 points, these final hours to identify the winner of this election? enough for him to win. First, we’d have to understand who is going to win Third, to call the election for Obama, I’d have to independents. believe he doesn’t hit his head on the ceiling every time he Four years ago, Obama won independents by 8 stands, but he does. The president’s percentage number is points over John McCain. After the Denver debate, that ad- stuck some 2% or 3% short of the 50% mark. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Monday, Nov. 5, 2012

The Real Clear Politics national average has Obama played by Hurricane Sandy. stuck at 47.8% with Romney tight on his heels at 47.3%. Already, some analysts are describing the storm as Our last two PurplePolls of likely voters in swing states an “October surprise” that allowed Mr. Obama to regain his have Obama at 47% to 48%. footing after stumbling badly in the first presidential debate What else would we have to understand to identify and struggling to get back on course. Some Republicans the likely winner? seem prepared to blame a potential defeat for Mitt Rom- Fourth, we’d have to see who has captured the ney on the storm, and the embrace of Mr. Obama by New powerful remnants of the 2010 surge that renewed the Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and other public officials. “silent majority’s” voice and secured GOP control of the The theory has some appeal. The last three days of House of Representatives. polling have brought what is almost certainly Mr. Obama’s Fifth, to identify our next president, we would have strongest run of polling since the first presidential debate in to understand who has the edge, compared with ‘08, in Denver. Mr. Obama led in the vast majority of battleground- early and absentee voting. state polls over the weekend. And increasingly, it is hard to GOP sources tell me that in Ohio, for example, find leads for Mr. Romney in national surveys — although Republicans have increased their early turnout by more several of them show a tie. than 100,000 from 2008 while Democrat turnout is down When the hurricane made landfall in New Jersey on 150,000. That is a 250,000-vote swing in a state Obama Oct. 29, Mr. Obama’s chances of winning re-election were only won by 260,000 votes at the apogee of his popularity. 73 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. Since then, his This pattern, I’m informed, holds in other swing states. chances have risen to 86 percent, close to his highs on the Sixth, we have to examine whether the Obama year. campaign can compensate for dimming passion among its But, while the storm and the response to it may ac- supporters with a more energetic turn-out-the-vote ma- count for some of Mr. Obama’s gains, it assuredly does not chine on Election Day. reflect the whole Add it all up, and of the story. Read this is a close call. Perhaps more… it is best made both with my It appears heart and my head. that President Four years ago, Obama is likely Obama’s campaign claimed a to go into Elec- unique energy. Electing the tion Day with a first black president of the very modest lead United States was a singular in the average of moment of national pride. national polls. Now the Obama campaign As of pretends the opposite: They this writing, on tell us that history-making Sunday evening, event was ordinary. Team Mr. Obama led by Obama and many others an average of 1.3 model their turnout predictions and surveys upon 2008, percentage points across 12 national polls that had been overloading them with Democrats. They would have us published over the course of the prior 24 hours. The range think that the electoral cosmos has been realigned in a was quite tight, running from a tied race in the polls issued stable and permanent way. by Rasmussen Reports, CNN and Politico, to a three-point In the end, I cannot embrace as common the lead in three other surveys. rarest of political astronomies. I do not believe Obama’s This happens to be a reasonably friendly group of comet comes around every day. polls for Mr. Obama, and it’s more likely than not that at That leaves Mitt Romney as the next president of least some national polls published late Sunday or on Mon- the United States. day will still show Mitt Romney ahead. Nevertheless, there is enough data to conclude , Fivethirtyeight, that Mr. Obama probably has a slight edge from national New York Times surveys, which until recently had pointed toward a tie — or If President Obama wins re-election on Tuesday, perhaps a modest advantage for Mr. Romney in the imme- v the historical memory of the race might turn on the role diate aftermath of the Denver debate.