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Countering Terrorism SOMALIA: COUNTERING TERRORISM IN A FAILED STATE 23 May 2002 Africa Report N° 45 Nairobi/Brussels TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................. i I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................1 II. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC TRENDS...............................................................................2 A. 1995 TO 1999 ...............................................................................................................................2 B. THE CURRENT DYNAMIC ..............................................................................................................5 III. THE REGIONAL PICTURE......................................................................................................8 A. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND...........................................................................................................8 B. EGYPT AND THE ARAB STATES .....................................................................................................9 C. ETHIOPIA ......................................................................................................................................9 D. DJIBOUTI.....................................................................................................................................10 E. ERITREA .....................................................................................................................................10 F. KENYA........................................................................................................................................11 IV. ISLAMISM AND TERRORISM ..............................................................................................11 A. ISLAMIC CHARITIES AND RELIGIOUS MOVEMENTS .....................................................................12 B. FOREIGN FUNDING......................................................................................................................13 C. AL-QAEDA ..................................................................................................................................14 D. AL-ITIHAAD ................................................................................................................................15 E. ENHANCING COUNTER-TERRORISM............................................................................................19 V. SCENARIOS OF INTENSIFIED CONFLICT .......................................................................20 VI. A FRESH APPROACH TO STATE RECONSTRUCTION .................................................23 A. KICKSTARTING DIPLOMACY .......................................................................................................23 B. DIPLOMACY WITH THE SOMALIS.................................................................................................24 C. THE IMPORTANCE OF A REGIONAL APPROACH ...........................................................................26 D. INCENTIVES AND LEVERAGE.......................................................................................................26 E. RETHINKING THE PROCESS .........................................................................................................27 VII. CONCLUSION............................................................................................................................28 APPENDICES A. MAP OF SOMALIA .......................................................................................................................30 B. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP...............................................................................31 C. ICG REPORTS AND BRIEFING PAPERS.........................................................................................32 D. ICG BOARD MEMBERS...............................................................................................................36 ICG Africa Report N° 45 23 May 2002 SOMALIA: COUNTERING TERRORISM IN A FAILED STATE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS For the first time since the last UN mission left the unpredictable conflicts between smaller clan-based country in 1995, there is considerable international factions and warlord militia groups. Limited local interest in Somalia, centred on the possibility that attempts at economic recovery and restoration of the country may become part of the global war the rule of law have been put at risk by the recent against terrorism. The U.S. government suspects escalation between opposing factions backed by that al-Qaeda may have used Somalia as a staging regional benefactors. There are great local area or safe haven in the past and remains disparities. The self-declared and unrecognised concerned – though less than in the immediate Republic of Somaliland provides significant aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attacks – that governance and security in the Northwest, though it could do so again because of the country's highly its stability is fragile and threatened by recent fragmented internal security situation. political developments, including the death in May 2002 of its President, Mohamed Ibrahim Egal. The U.S. and its allies have already taken some Parts of southern Somalia and the Northeast, steps to counter the possible use of Somalia by including the autonomous region of Puntland, international terrorists, including increased remain embroiled in destabilising armed conflict. surveillance, the closing down of terrorist- connected financial institutions and the threat of The so-called Transitional National Government, military action. Having high-ranking U.S. officials formed in 1999 at the Arta conference in Djibouti warn about the threat and possible military sponsored by the regional Intergovernmental response has helped deter the use by fleeing al- Authority on Development (IGAD), is not Qaeda members of Somali territory as a temporary sufficiently representative and controls little more safe haven. However, while these measures may than part of the capital, Mogadishu. Supported by a have kept terrorists from operating out of Somalia loose coalition of Arab and African countries, in the short-term, it is the instability and power including Egypt, Libya, Djibouti, Eritrea and a vacuum emerging from the collapse of the Somali number of Gulf states, and in alliance with militia state that poses the greatest danger both to the groups, it is engaged in a tense and occasionally outside world and to Somalis. Strong international violent stand-off with an opposition coalition, the engagement to bring peace internally and to Ethiopia-backed Somalia Reconciliation and reconstruct the failed state is required now if Restoration Council. The polarisation between longer-term counter-terrorism objectives are to be these two sets of loose alliances is increasing, and achieved. a more direct showdown is highly likely in the absence of any serious regional or international Left essentially to its own devices over the past effort at conflict prevention. seven years, Somalia has seen destructive civil war and lawless banditry give way to more localised, Somalia: Countering Terrorism in a Failed State ICG Africa Report N° 45, 23 May 2002 Page ii Islamist organisations have become more terrorism objectives, it is necessary for key states prominent in the past decade. The most important, outside the region to re-engage politically. Efforts the indigenous al-Itihaad al-Islami, aims to by the regional organisation IGAD to hold a peace establish an Islamic state in Somalia and in the conference for all Somali stakeholders risk Somali-inhabited region of eastern Ethiopia (the collapse, with regional divisions and an uncertain Ogaden). In the early to mid 1990s, it organised agenda leaving even a date for its convening militias in attempts to gain control of several key uncertain. Somali towns. It committed several acts of terrorism against Ethiopian government targets in Diplomatic efforts should have two objectives: 1995. While its goals have focused relatively first, to defuse the immediate tensions (both inside narrowly on Somalia and Ethiopia, it has had links Somalia and among competing regional states) that with international Islamist terrorists in the past, threaten to draw sections of the country into wider including al-Qaeda. The possibility of continued or armed conflict; and secondly, to create the broader renewed ties should be closely monitored. support structures and favourable conditions for IGAD to help lead a wider reconciliation and Despite repeated calamities, there is strong Somali reconstruction process. interest in finding a way to stable governance. Virtually all political and civil society leaders Subsequent ICG reporting will address in greater interviewed by ICG expressed a firm desire for the detail both the process and the substance of international community, particularly the U.S., to advancing that political reconciliation and reengage to promote reconciliation and reconstruction.. reconstruction of the state. If the international community is to do this, its RECOMMENDATIONS perspective should be wider than terrorism. Countering that phenomenon is critical, but ON FIGHTING TERRORISM Somalia is not Afghanistan. Local administrative structures are already in place in many areas of the To The U.S. And Other Members Of The country. The most worrisome political movement, International Coalition: al-Itihaad, does not control
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