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Geraszimov-Doktrína – Egy Másik Megvilágításban

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Geraszimov-Doktrína – Egy Másik Megvilágításban KATONAI NEMZETBIZTONSÁGI SZOLGÁLAT XVI. évfolyam 3–4. szám FELDERÍTŐ SZEMLE ALAPÍTVA: 2002 BUDAPEST 2017 A Katonai Nemzetbiztonsági Szolgálat tudományos-szakmai folyóirata Felelős kiadó Kovács József altábornagy, főigazgató Szerkesztőbizottság Elnök: Dr. Béres János vezérőrnagy Tagok: Dezső Sándor vezérőrnagy Dr. Magyar István ny. dandártábornok Dr. Tömösváry Zsigmond ny. dandártábornok Deák Anita alezredes Dr. Fürjes János alezredes Háry Szabolcs ezredes Dr. Magyar Sándor ezredes Dr. Tóth Sándor alezredes Dr. Vida Csaba alezredes Felelős szerkesztő: Deák Anita alezredes Olvasószerkesztő: Gál Csaba ny. ezredes Tördelőszerkesztő: Tóth Krisztina tzls. HU ISSN 1588-242X TARTALOM BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA HOLECZ JÓZSEF ALEZREDES A GERASZIMOV-DOKTRÍNA – EGY MÁSIK MEGVILÁGÍTÁSBAN ...................................................... 5 BERTALAN DÁVID OGY. ALEZREDES A BIZTONSÁGI SZEKTOR SPECIÁLIS VONÁSAI .......................... 28 MEZŐ ANDRÁS ALEZREDES A DOKTRÍNAFEJLESZTÉS NEMZETKÖZI TAPASZTALATAI ... 45 HEGYI ÁGNES SZÁZADOS TERRORIZMUS A SZÁHEL-ÖVEZETBEN ....................................... 74 DR. GERENCSÉR ÁRPÁD KÖZÉP-ÁZSIAI SZÉLSŐSÉGES MOZGALMAK MEGJELENÉSI FORMÁI ÉS JELENTŐSÉGE .................................. 87 HÍRSZERZÉS – FELDERÍTÉS KOÓS GÁBOR NY. ALEZREDES – PROF. DR. SZTERNÁK GYÖRGY NY. EZREDES A FEGYVERES KÜZDELEM JELLEMZŐI KUTATÁSÁNAK FONTOSSÁGA, A HÍRSZERZÉS ÉS A FELDERÍTÉS JELENTŐSÉGE ..................... 97 DR. VIDA CSABA ALEZREDES AZ ELEMZŐ-ÉRTÉKELŐ MUNKA TERMÉKEI – NEMZETBIZTONSÁGI TÁJÉKOZTATÓK KÉSZÍTÉSE .............. 112 DR. MARTON PÉTER A FELDERÍTŐ ÚJSÁGÍRÁS STRATÉGIAI IMPLIKÁCIÓI, KÜLÖNÖS TEKINTETTEL A TERRORIZMUS ELLENI HÁBORÚRA ........................................................................................... 129 ORSZÁGISMERTETŐ KŐVÁRI LÁSZLÓ ALEZREDES OROSZ ÉSZAKI IRÁNYÚ TERJESZKEDÉS ÉS AZ OROSZ ÉSZAKI FLOTTA ......................................................... 138 NOVÁK-VARRÓ VIRÁG AFGANISZTÁN – A 2017-ES ÉV ÉRTÉKELÉSE ................................ 159 FÓRUM FODOR DÓRA A HEZBOLLAH MINT NEGYEDIK GENERÁCIÓS HADVISELŐ FÉL .................................................................................. 176 ZSOLT MELINDA A VÉDELMI SZFÉRA ZÖLDÍTÉSE – NEMZETKÖZI KITEKINTÉS ............................................................. 188 ÜVEGES ANDRÁS JÓZSEF FŐHADNAGY A KRIPTOPÉNZEK HAJNALA .......................................................... 202 AZ OLVASÓHOZ DR. MAGYAR ISTVÁN NY. DANDÁRTÁBORNOK A HAGYMAKUPOLÁK ÁRNYÉKÁBAN – KÖNYVISMERTETŐ............................................................................ 210 E SZÁMUNK TARTALMA .................................................................. 212 A KÖTET SZERZŐI .............................................................................. 222 A FELDERÍTŐ SZEMLÉBEN TÖRTÉNŐ PUBLIKÁLÁS FELTÉTELEI ......................................................................................... 225 HOLECZ JÓZSEF ALEZREDES A GERASZIMOV-DOKTRÍNA – EGY MÁSIK MEGVILÁGÍTÁSBAN „A hadtudománynak szintetizálni kell azt az óriási mennyiségű szakirodalmat, amely a jövő háborúival, konfliktusaival, hadviselésével foglalkozik. A következtetéseket össze kell vetni az újabb és újabb, hagyományos és nem hagyományos konfliktusok változó világával, és előremutató javaslatokat kell kidolgozni.” Szenes Zoltán1 Bevezetés A 2014-ben bekövetkezett ukrajnai események és az ahhoz vezető okok vizsgálatának eredményeként a nyugati szakértők „ráleltek” egy addig ismeretlen, de másfél évvel korábban publikált újságcikkre, amely új megvilágításba helyezte a krími, majd a kelet-ukrajnai eseményeket, és nem kevésbé az orosz katonai gondolkodás megítélését. A cikk szerzője Valerij Geraszimov hadseregtábornok, az orosz fegyveres erők vezérkari főnöke, védelmi miniszterhelyettes volt, aki 2013. február 27-én2 megjelent cikkében3 röviden összefoglalta a jövő háborúinak, hadviselésének jellemzőit, új jellegzetességeit. Az orosz tábornok által írt – a nyugati publikációkban „doktrína”-ként megjelent – írást – köszönhetően Robert Coalson 2014. június 21-én megjelent angol fordításának – gyakorlatilag minden jelentős nyugati szakértő átvette és publikációiban felhasználta. A Geraszimov tábornok által leírtak, valamint elsősorban annak elején megfogalmazott gondolatai ettől a pillanattól kezdve összemosódtak azon orosz publikációkkal, amelyek a cikk megjelenését követően láttak napvilágot, és ahhoz hasonlóan napjaink hadviselésének a jellemzőit boncolgatták. Ugyanennek a folyamatnak lett eredménye a „doktrína” elnevezés is. A cikk a médiának köszönhetően került a köztudatba „doktrína”-ként, miközben „csupán” az orosz vezérkari főnök publikációja. Az ok két dologra vezethető vissza: egyrészt a doktrína kifejezés az orosz szóhasználatban stratégiai dokumentumot jelent, azaz valamilyen terület átfogó, felsőszintű leírását takarja. Másrészt a szó tudományos értelemben latin eredetű szóként többnyire tan, tétel, tudományos elméletek és nézetek rendszerét jelenti.4 Ilyen értelemben a cikk elején megfogalmazott, 1 SZENES Zoltán: Katonai kihívások a 21. század elején. Hadtudomány, 2005/4. p. 30. http://www.zmne.hu/kulso/mhtt/hadtudomany/2005/4/2005_4_5.html; letöltés: 2017.06.11. 2 A megjelenés pontos időpontját tekintve megoszlanak az angol nyelvű források. Az elektronikus megjelentetés már 2013. február 26-án megtörtént, de az orosz újság pdf-es formában is fellelhető cikkén a 2013. február 27-i dátum olvasható. ГЕРАСИМОВ, Валерий: Ценность науки в предвидении. Военно-Промышленный Курьер, 2013/8. szám. pp. 2–3. http://vpk-news.ru/articles/14632/; letöltés: 2017.03.31. 3 A cikk a Vojenno-Promislennij Kurjer – egy katonai fejlesztésekkel foglalkozó szaklap – 2013/8. számában jelent meg. 4 SZABÓ József (főszerk.): Hadtudományi Lexikon I. kötet. Magyar Hadtudományi Társaság, Budapest, 1995. ISBN 963 04 5226 x (I–II. kötet), ISBN 963 04 5227 8 (I. kötet) pp. 214–215. BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA 5 a kor hadviselésének általános jellemzőit kiemelő, azt számos publikációban megjelentető nyugati sajtó logikusan keresztelte el „doktrínának”. A NATO terminológiai meghatározása sem fogalmaz másként: „Katonai erőket célkitűzéseik elérésében irányító alapelvek. Mérvadó dokumentum, de alkalmazásához ítélőképesség szükséges.”5 Ez alapján nyugodtan állíthatjuk, hogy a Geraszimov- publikáció eleje nyugodtan tekinthető doktrínának. Az elnevezés köztudatba kerülése mellett egy másik szókapcsolat is elhíresült Geraszimov orosz vezérkari főnökkel kapcsolatban: a hibrid hadviselés jelensége. Már fél évvel a krími annexiót követően egy csodamódszerről, az „orosz hibrid hadviselés”-ről kezdett cikkezni a nyugati szaksajtó, és gyakorlatilag ezt követően sokan azonosították a gyakorlatot a tábornok által elmondottakkal. Az elnevezés – Geraszimov-doktrína – egyrészt a témában azóta megjelent orosz szakcikkek, a közben folyamatosan alakuló biztonsági környezet, a folyamatosan megjelenő elemzések, másrészt az elsősorban geopolitikai indíttatású viták kereszttűzében formálódott, de három évvel az események után a hibrid hadviselésnek még mindig nincs egyértelmű, általánosan elfogadott terminológiai meghatározása. Ugyan azóta már mindenki számára egyértelművé vált, hogy maga az elnevezés és a mögötte húzódó tartalom amerikai kutatási eredmény, ám arra is rá kellett jönniük a témát kutató szakembereknek, hogy ez a terület alig tartalmaz egzakt elemeket és folyamatokat, azaz nehezen körülírható, ráadásul nem csupán az amerikaiak, de a kínaiak, és így 2013-ra tekintve az oroszok is kutatták a hadviselés paradigmaváltozással járó alkalmazását.6 Jelen tanulmánynak nem célja a fenti kérdések és a mögöttük húzódó geopolitikai-geostratégiai, illetve hadtudományi (mind elméleti, mind gyakorlati) – sok esetben megválaszolatlan – kérdésekre adandó válaszok keresése. Ezen tanulmánnyal a következő célokat tűzöm ki, amelyek remélhetőleg a témát kutató vagy az iránt érdeklődő szakembereket arra sarkallja, hogy a fenti kérdések megválaszolásában előrébb jussunk: – Mindenekelőtt be kívánom mutatni az orosz vezérkari főnök teljes tanulmányának magyar nyelvű fordítását. Magyarul eddig nem került lefordításra, sőt sok publikáció az angol nyelvű változatából is elsősorban csak a hibrid hadviselés szempontjából releváns részeket emelte ki. A teljes cikk – megítélésem szerint – tartogat még olyan érdekességeket és említésre méltó információkat, amelyeket a következőkben – a teljes cikk magyar nyelvű megjelentetésével és saját gondolataimmal történt kiegészítésekkel – kívánom az olvasó számára bemutatni. 5 MEZŐ András: Doktrínafejlesztés a Magyar Honvédségben. Honvédségi Szemle, 2017/4. szám. p. 149. http://www.honvedelem.hu/container/files/attachments/64203/hsz_2017_4_beliv_148_166.pdf; letöltés: 2017.11.01. 6 A témát kutató amerikai szakértők névsorát hosszadalmas lenne most felsorolni, csak a teljességre törekvés nélkül azokat, akik gyakorlatilag az 1990-es évektől napjainkig kutatásaikkal segítették a hibrid hadviseléssel kapcsolatos amerikai megközelítés kialakulását: Thomas Huber, William J. Nemeth, James N. Mattis, Frank G. Hoffman, Nathan Freier, Margaret S. Bond, Brian P. Fleming, David Kilcullen, John J. McCuen és Russel W. Glenn. 6 BIZTONSÁGPOLITIKA – Igyekszem cáfolni, de legalábbis más megvilágításba kívánom helyezni azt a közismert állítást, miszerint az orosz vezérkari főnök már a cikk megírásakor tudta, hogy mi fog történni Ukrajnában, sőt egyfajta pikírt módon előrevetítette azok bekövetkeztét. – Hasonlóan eltérő a véleményem az általánosan elterjedt vélekedéssel szemben, miszerint a cikk célja a modern hadviselés, valamint a
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