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OILGRAM PRICE REPORT Volume 96 / Number 149 / August 6, 2018 / Prices Effective August 3, 2018

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OILGRAM PRICE REPORT Volume 96 / Number 149 / August 6, 2018 / Prices Effective August 3, 2018 OILGRAM PRICE REPORT Volume 96 / Number 149 / August 6, 2018 / Prices effective August 3, 2018 OPEC output surges on Saudi crude boost INSIDE THIS ISSUE London—Saudi Arabia pumped close to its all-time high in July and several of its OPEC brethren posted Market analysis their largest output figures in more than a year and a half, as the bloc appears to be following through on its International crude: Forties flip to discount vs Brent 2 agreement to unleash more barrels on the market. Americas crude: CNR shuts in heavy oil output 4 Gasoline: US to weaken as supply grows 5 ■■Iran falls to 3.72 mil b/d as buyers unwind purchases source said the kingdom produced less crude in July and Diesel: US Gulf Coast rallies to high 7 ■■Venezuela continues freefall to 1.24 mil b/d supplied 10.38 million b/d to the market. Gasoil: US backwardation deepens 7 The country produced 10.29 million b/d in July, the Jet: Singapore regrade lower, exports brisk 8 Resid: Singapore stocks drop to nine-year low 16 OPEC produced 32.66 million b/d in July, a 340,000 b/d source said, down from a self-reported figure of 10.49 Feedstocks: US sour VGO rallies to $13/b over crude 17 rise from June, including newest member the Republic of million b/d for June. The new figure indicates that Saudi Gas liquids: Asia propane more economic than naphtha 18 Congo, according to the latest S&P Global Platts survey of Arabia may have pulled barrels out of storage to supply the Tankers: Typhoon shuts eastern China ports 18 industry officials, analysts and shipping data. market with more crude than it produced. News Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest member, produced 10.63 OPEC is set to reveal its July production figures in its South Korea finds US crude cheaper than Russian grades 19 million b/d, the kingdom’s highest since August 2016, when closely watched monthly oil market report August 13. China’s CAO to focus on core business amid trade tensions 31 it produced its record 10.66 million b/d, according to Platts According to Platts’ survey, Saudi Arabia’s Gulf allies Heatwave forces European refiners to cut runs 31 Brazil’s Petrobras to install three new FPSOs in third quarter 32 survey archives. Kuwait and the UAE pushed their output to their most Refinery updates 33 After the survey was published, however, a Saudi (continued on page 32) Crude futures fall on higher OPEC supply, US-China trade spat FORCADOS COULD GET BUMP FROM NARROWER EFS New York—Crude futures fell Friday on rising OPEC and b/d set in October 2016. Russian output and concerns that a trade dispute between “Rising Saudi Arabian and Russian oil supply, coupled ($/b) Forcados Brent-Dubai EFS 5 the US and China will affect demand. with concerns about demand due to the further escalating October ICE Brent settled 24 cents lower at $73.21/b, trade conflict between the US and China, the two largest 4 while September NYMEX crude settled 47 cents lower oil consumer countries, is weighing on the [Brent] price,” 3 at $68.49/b. Commerzbank analysts said in a note Friday. OPEC produced 32.66 million b/d in July, up 340,000 b/d Weekly rig data reported by Baker Hughes Friday did 2 from June, according to an S&P Global Platts survey Friday, little to move the market. US rigs fell by four to 1,044 this 1 as increases from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and week, while the Permian oil rig count was unchanged at the UAE offset declines from Libya and Venezuela. 479. The Permian count has lingered between 473 and 0 Russia’s crude output climbed nearly 150,000 b/d in 479 since the end of May, reflecting a slowdown in activity -1 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 July, the energy minister said Thursday, largely in line with on tight pipeline takeaway capacity, and suggesting Moscow’s late-June agreement with OPEC. Russian output production growth will slow. Note: Platts Brent-Dubai at London MOC m1, Forcados dierential to Dated Brent Strip is now just 15,000 b/d below the record high of 11.23 million (continued on page 33) Source: S&P Global Platts www.platts.com OILGRAM PRICE REPORT PRICES EFFECTIVE AUGUST 3, 2018 MARKET ANALYSIS INTERNATIONAL CRUDE FORTIES DIFFERENTIAL TO DATED BRENT FALLS HARD ($/b) DATA INSIDE THIS ISSUE 1.0 Forties flip to discount vs Brent Product price assessments Asia 9 0.5 New signs of an arbitrage east emerged in the North Sea China 9 crude market Friday, with a VLCC reportedly booked for a late Fujairah 9 August voyage east, as Forties sank to a discount to Brent. 0.0 Arab Gulf 9 Indonesia 9 Forties fell to a 16 cents/b discount to Brent, down 79 Asia product premium/discount assessments 9 cents/b on the day. -0.5 Platts Index 9 European bulk 10 Shipbrokers linked Totsa with the Athenian Freedom West Africa products 10 -1.0 VLCC for an August 23-26 voyage from the North Sea to Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 European feedstocks and blendstocks 10 New York/Boston 11 South Korea at a $4.2 million lump sum. Total could not be Note: Forties dierential to Dated Brent falls hard USAC CPL Linden 11 reached for comment. Source: S&P Global Platts U.S. Buckeye pipeline 12 Chicago pipeline 12 In the derivatives market, Brent Contracts for Difference Group Three 12 flattened over late August-early September dates. from the North Sea. Atlantic resid/contract cargoes posted prices 12 Shale Value Chain assessments 12 August 20-24 to September 3-7 CFDs traded at parity, Two Aframaxes left Tees for Italy and Spain, respectively U.S. Gulf Coast 13 compared with a 15 cents/b contango Thursday afternoon, in early July, while a third Aframax followed mid-July and West Coast pipeline 14 while the rest of the curve remained in a contango. was taken into an Italian short. West Coast waterborne 14 U.S. Gulf Coast Supplemental Summer 14 Market participants said North Sea’s sweet grades were Only one Aframax – amounting to 9% of total July U.S. Gulf Coast pipeline cycles 14 trading at a slow pace, while distillates rich grades were heard loadings – was absorbed into the UK, compared with U.S. Gulf Coast Pipeline Cycles Supplemental 14 Latin America 15 to be faring better, in light of healthy distillates cracks. 30-50% of volumes in previous months. Caribbean cargoes 15 “Sweet seems very slow to move so far,” a source said. However, a large portion of the July program is yet to Caribbean product postings 15 Gas liquids 15 Another source reported healthy and steady appetite discharge, according to cFlow. Indeed, an estimated 53% Weekly asphalt cement assessments 16 for Norway’s Grane crude. of July Ekofisk loadings remained on vessels anchored Crude price assessments “Urals is not plentiful, Iranian sanctions kicking in and off UK coasts Friday. Asia Pacific/Middle East spot crude assessments 20 the fuel oil and distillates cracks being excellent means that International 21 Grane has value,” the trader said, reporting abundant Asia 21 CPC Blend’s Aug loading program lower North Sea 21 supplies of light crude, together with rising imports of US West Africa 21 crude and a meager gasoline crack relative to distillates. “ Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend’s differential decreased just as the London 22 A source pegged September arrivals around one Mediterranean 22 grade’s loading program is set to decrease in August. Canada 22 Aframax per day. An August-loading Aframax of CPC Blend was heard at Platts Euro denominated crude oil assessments 22 “June exports were by far the highest, although most is minus $1.95-$1.75/b to Dated Brent. United States 23 US domestic crude assessments London close 23 destined for Asia.” Suezmaxes were heard to be 15 cents/b lower. US crude assessments Singapore close 23 An estimated 6.4 million barrels of Ekofisk crude loaded BP hit an OMV bid for an August 24-28 loading CPC Canadian spot crude assessments 24 Crude oil postings 24 out of the UK’s Tees terminal over the course of July, Blend cargo basis CIF Augusta in the Platts Market on Close Latin America crude 24 according to S&P Global Platts trade flow software cFlow. assessment process at Dated Brent minus $1.95/b. Daily OPEC basket price 24 Spot tanker rates 25 All barrels leaving Tees in July remained in Europe, with The final August loading program for CPC Blend is Platts futures assessments Singapore MOC 25 increased volumes heading to the Mediterranean on the currently scheduled to be 4,624,550 mt, down 67,000 mt Platts futures assessments 25 Futures settlements 26 back of Libyan export outages. from a preliminary schedule mid-July, according to a copy Five-Day Rolling Averages 27 The force majeure on Libyan exports in June saw of the schedule seen by S&P Global Platts Friday. US wholesale posted prices effective Aug 3 28 Mediterranean refiners seek alternative sources of supplies Average daily loadings in August are now set to come in Commitments of traders as of Jul 31 30 © 2018 S&P Global Platts, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. 2 OILGRAM PRICE REPORT PRICES EFFECTIVE AUGUST 3, 2018 at 1,163,596 b/d, down 16,859 b/d from the 1,180,455 b/d of 40-30 cents/b versus its August official selling prices.
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