JREF IN THE CLASSROOM MODULE 001 / v 1.0 / 06/2011 001 DO YOU HAVE ESP?
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Our mission is to promote critical thinking by reaching out to the public and media with reliable information about paranormal and supernatural ideas, which are widespread in our society today.
The James Randi Educational Foundation was founded in 1996 to help people defend themselves from paranormal and pseudoscientific claims. The JREF offers a still-unclaimed million-dollar reward for anyone who can produce evidence of paranormal abilities under controlled conditions. Through scholarships, workshops, and innovative resources for educators, the JREF works to inspire this investigative spirit in a new generation of critical thinkers. Your support helps the JREF to . . . ([SRVHSDUDQRUPDODQGSVHXGRVFLHQWLILFIUDXGVLQWKHPHGLDDQGKROGPHGLD organizations accountable for promoting dangerous nonsense. 6XSSRUWVFLHQWLILFUHVHDUFKLQWRSDUDQRUPDOFODLPV 3URYLGHJUDQWVDQGIUHHWHDFKLQJPRGXOHVWRKHOSHGXFDWRUVLQVSLUHDQLQYHVWLJDWLYH VSLULWLQWKHQH[WJHQHUDWLRQRIFULWLFDOWKLQNHUV $ZDUGVFKRODUVKLSVWKDWHQFRXUDJHVFLHQWLILFVNHSWLFLVPDPRQJVWXGHQWV 6XSSRUWJUDVVURRWVVNHSWLFV·JURXSVZLWKWRROVWRKHOSWKHPRUJDQL]HDQGSURPRWH skepticism and critical thinking. 'LJLWDOO\SXEOLVKWKHLPSRUWDQWZRUNVRIVNHSWLFLVPIRUGLVWULEXWLRQRQWKHL3DG.LQGOH and other e-readers. 2UJDQL]HPDMRUFRQIHUHQFHVDQGRWKHUJDWKHULQJVWKDWEULQJWKHHQWLUHVNHSWLFDO community together.
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5@/23:3D3: This activity is designed for grades 9 through 12.
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´(63µZDVLQYHQWHGE\'U-%5KLQHDQGXVHGE\KLPWRUHIHUWRVXSSRVHGDELOLWLHVVXFKDV telepathy, which involves the ability to know the thoughts of another person without the use of the recognized VHQVHV&ODLUDXGLHQFH SHUFHSWLRQRIVRXQGVQRWGHWHFWDEOHWKURXJKWKHFRQYHQWLRQDOVHQVHRIKHDULQJ FODLUYR\DQFH VHHLQJWKLQJVUHPRYHGIURPWLPHDQGVSDFH DQGSUHFRJQLWLRQ NQRZOHGJHRIIXWXUHHYHQWV DOVRIDOOXQGHUWKLVWHUP(63LVDWHUPZLGHO\XVHGE\WKHJHQHUDOSXEOLFWRGHVFULEHDQ\RIDQXPEHURI paranormal abilities. Those in the psychic advice industry use this WHUPWRGHVFULEHWKHLUPHWKRGRIDFTXLULQJSULYLOHJHGLQIRUPDWLRQQRW available to those restricted to the five traditional senses. 3V\FKLFDELOLWLHVKDYHDOVREHHQXVHGDVFKDUDFWHUWUDLWV and thematic elements in American pop culture and most prominently in comic books and science fiction writing. Most of us are familiar with well-known fictional telepaths including the Jedi of Star Wars0U6SRFNRIStar TrekDQG$TXDPDQ ;@ A>=19;7<2;3:2A7< µ/2/553@=4B63;7<2 ¶ AB/@B@39(B63=@757/@/;=C /?C/;/<<¡ '$ 2 1 1=;71A $ 2=G=C6/D33A>- @3D7A32 6/1/11 %HOLHILQSDUDQRUPDOFODLPVUHODWHGWR(63UHPDLQVZLGHVSUHDG7KH*DOOXS2UJDQL]DWLRQ FRQGXFWHGDVXUYH\RIWKHEHOLHIVRIWKHJHQHUDO8QLWHG6WDWHVSRSXODWLRQDERXWSDUDQRUPDOWRSLFV LQ7KHVXUYH\IRXQGWKDWSHUFHQWRIWKRVHSROOHGEHOLHYHGLQH[WUDVHQVRU\SHUFHSWLRQDQG 26 percent believed in clairvoyance. Thirty-one percent of those surveyed believed in telepathy or psychic communication. 3DUDSV\FKRORJLFDOUHVHDUFK WKHVWXG\RISV\FKLFDELOLWLHV KDVEHHQJRLQJRQLQODERUDWRU\VHWWLQJV SULPDULO\LQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG8QLWHG.LQJGRPIRUPRUHWKDQ\HDUV7KHILHOGVDZLQFUHDVLQJ LQWHUHVWDQGLPSURYHGWHFKQLTXHVWKURXJKLWVSHDNLQWKH V$WGLIIHUHQWWLPHVRYHUWKHODVW century, laboratories searching for evidence of paranormal abilities could be found in many top XQLYHUVLWLHVLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG(XURSH 7KH8QLWHG6WDWHVPLOLWDU\DQGLQWHOOLJHQFHFRPPXQLWLHVDOVRKDYHORQJKLVWRULHVLQSV\FKLFUHVHDUFK 'HFODVVLILHGGRFXPHQWVGHVFULEHPDMRUUHVHDUFKSURJUDPVOLNHWKHRQHDWWKH86$UP\·V)RUW0HDG 7KH)RUW0HDGSURJUDPZDVGHYHORSHGWRH[DPLQHWKHSV\FKLFSKHQRPHQRQNQRZQDV´UHPRWH YLHZLQJµ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few still consider these studies to be of any scientific value. The results have been attributed to PLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIUHVXOWVDQGIODZHGH[SHULPHQWDOGHVLJQ:KHQVFLHQFHLVGRQHULJKWUHVXOWVDUH always open to the scrutiny of other scientists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µT5IF4VSWJWBMPG.BO3IJOFXPVMECFDMPTFMZBTTPDJBUFEXJUI $POBO%PZMFBOEPUIFSQSPNJOFOUTQJSJUVBMJTUTVOUJMBOJOWFTUJHBUJPOFBSMZ JOIJTDBSFFSQVUIJNBUPEETXJUINBOZJOUIBUDPNNVOJUZIFGPVOE .BSHFSZ$SBOEPO BXFMMLOPXONFEJVN UPCFBGSBVE ,Q 5KLQHEHFDPHDFTXDLQWHGZLWK'XNH8QLYHUVLW\SV\FKRORJLVW'U:LOOLDP0F'RXJDOODQGVRRQ WKHWZREHJDQIRFXVLQJRQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIQHZ´VFLHQWLILFµPHWKRGVIRULQYHVWLJDWLQJSDUDQRUPDO phenomena. They would describe their research area as parapsychology to intentionally distinguish it from traditional psychology. 5IF3IJOF 3FTFBSDI-BC %VLF6OJWFSTJUZ %\ 5KLQHDQG0F'RXJDOOKDGEHJXQVWXGLHVDWDSV\FKRORJ\ODERQWKH'XNH8QLYHUVLW\FDPSXV LQ'XUKDP1RUWK&DUROLQDDORQJZLWKDFROOHDJXH'U.DUO=HQHU=HQHUZRXOGEHEHVWNQRZQIRU GHYHORSLQJWKHVHWRIILYHV\PEROFDUGVQRZNQRZQDV=HQHUFDUGVIRU5KLQHWRXVHLQWHVWLQJIRU SV\FKLFSRZHUV:LWKLQDIHZ\HDUVWKH\KDGHVWDEOLVKHGWKH'XNH8QLYHUVLW\3DUDSV\FKRORJ\ /DERUDWRU\DW'XUKDP7KHODEZRXOGGHYHORSQHDUO\HYHU\PHWKRGDQGFRQFHSWWKDWZRXOGIRUP & 2=G=C6/D33A>- @3D7A32 6/1/11 WKHFRUHRIH[SHULPHQWDOSDUDSV\FKRORJ\LQFOXGLQJWKHWHUPextrasensory perception (63 (63 EHFDPHWKHSULPDU\IRFXVRIWKHODEDQGDPDVVLYHERG\RIGDWDZDVSURGXFHG7KH\FRQGXFWHG H[SHULPHQWVZLWKPRUHWKDQRQHPLOOLRQWULDOV6HYHUDOVWXGLHVUHSRUWHGVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWUHVXOWV LQVXSSRUWRI(63 B637@>:/137<A173<13 Many agree that Rhine's work was pioneering and that he was sincerely dedicated to the search IRUHYLGHQFHRI(638QIRUWXQDWHO\KLVSDVVLRQIRUWKHVXEMHFWFRXOGQ·WRYHUFRPHWKHORZTXDOLW\RI his research or his failure to produce any compelling evidence to support his claims. 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Even worse, critics have pointed to numerous cases of misrepresented data, sloppy methods, and even fraud, rendering his entire body of work tainted. 5KLQHILUPO\EHOLHYHGKHZDVVHHLQJHYLGHQFHIRU(63LQWKHUHVHDUFK7KLV´HYLGHQFHµZDVIRXQG ZKHQKHOLPLWHGKLVDQDO\VHVWRGDWDFROOHFWHGIURPWULDOVZLWKKLVPRVW´JLIWHGµVXEMHFWV+LVIRFXV RQVXFFHVVHVRIJLIWHGVXEMHFWVJDYHDIDOVHYLHZRIWKHRYHUDOOUHVXOWV,WLVQRZZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGWKDW Rhine and his colleagues had been allowing themselves to ignore much of the data they had collected DQGUHSRUWHGRQO\WKRVHZLWKSRVLWLYHUHVXOWV1HJDWLYHGDWDZHUHVHWDVLGH7KLVLVDFRPPRQ problem in studies of paranormal abilities and other areas of fringe science: investigators start with a FRQFOXVLRQDQGZRUNWRILQGHYLGHQFHLQVXSSRUWRILW LQWKLVFDVHWKHFRQFOXVLRQWKDW(63LVUHDO "UZQJDBM TFUPG ;FOFS DBSET 7KHILQDOEORZWR5KLQHRFFXUUHGZKHQ'U:DOWHU/HY\DWUXVWHGFROOHDJXHDWWKH)RXQGDWLRQIRU 5HVHDUFKRQWKH1DWXUHRI0DQ )510 DSULYDWHRUJDQL]DWLRQHVWDEOLVKHGE\5KLQHLQ ZDV GLVFRYHUHGWREHFKHDWLQJRQDQLPSUHVVLYHDQLPDO(63WHVWWKDWKDGEHHQUHSRUWHGDVDKXJHVXFFHVV Levy confessed and was fired. 7KH5KLQH/DELVMXVWRQHRIPDQ\VXFKODEVWKDWKDYHPDGHUHSHDWHGFODLPVRISRVLWLYHUHVXOWVRQO\ WRKDYHWKHLUILQGLQJVUHMHFWHGEHFDXVHWKHUHVXOWVUHIOHFWHGSUREOHPVZLWKWKHH[SHULPHQWVDQGQRW WKHVXEMHFW VDELOLWLHV$OWKRXJKSURSRQHQWVRISDUDSV\FKRORJLFDOUHVHDUFKDUHIRQGRITXRWLQJWKH LPPHQVHRGGVDJDLQVWVXFFHVVLQ(63WHVWVE\FKDQFHDORQHWKRVHILJXUHVDUHPHDQLQJOHVVLIWKH H[SHULPHQWVDUHQRWSURSHUO\FRQGXFWHG We will be conducting our own investigations into psychic powers using methods similar to those employed by Rhine. The methods can be sound only if researchers are rigorous and consistent with their use. 2=G=C6/D33A>- ' @3D7A32 6/1/11 UFTUJOHGPSQBSBOPSNBMBCJMJUJFT BG>3A=4B3ABA :HFDQWHVWIRUWKUHHPDLQNLQGVRI(637KH\DUHWHOHSDWK\ PLQGUHDGLQJ FODLUYR\DQFH NQRZLQJ ZLWKRXWXVHRIFRQYHQWLRQDOVHQVHVRUWHOHSDWK\ DQGSUHFRJQLWLRQ NQRZLQJWKHIXWXUH -%5KLQH VJRDOZDVWRHVWDEOLVKGLUHFWKRQHVWDQGVRXQGPHWKRGVRIWHVWLQJIRUSDUDQRUPDODELOLWLHV 7KHWHVWNLWSURYLGHVHYHU\WKLQJQHHGHGWRFRQGXFWDQH[SHULPHQWOLNHWKRVHFDUULHGRXWE\-%5KLQH DQGODWHUUHVHDUFKHUV:HZLOOEHFRQVLVWHQWZLWK5KLQH VWHUPLQRORJ\E\FDOOLQJRXUH[SHULPHQWHU´WKH VHQGHUDQGRXUVXEMHFW´WKHUHFHLYHUµ7KHWHVWLQJDSSDUDWXVLVVLPSOH7KHNLWFRQWDLQVILYHVHWVRIILYH cards for a total of twenty-five. 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B3AB7<5>@31=5<7B7=< ,WLVYHU\GLIILFXOWWRWHOOWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQFODLUYR\DQFHDQGSUHFRJQLWLRQLQWULDOV:KRFDQWHOO ZKLFKSRVVLEOHIRUFHLVRSHUDWLQJ"2QHSRVVLEOHVROXWLRQLVWRFRQGXFWSUHFRJQLWLRQWHVWZKHUHQR VHOHFWLRQLVPDGHXQWLODVXEMHFWKDVDQQRXQFHGDFDOO2QO\DIWHUDFDOOLVPDGHZLOOWKHH[SHULPHQWHU draw a card at random. The symbols are then recorded, the card is put back into the deck and the deck is reshuffled. This process is repeated as many times as necessary. BGFXJNQPSUBOUSVMFT ,QH[SHULHQFHGH[SHULPHQWHUVPD\FRPPLWWKHPLVWDNHRIRQO\DFFHSWLQJGDWDWKDWDUHIDYRUDEOH 1HYHUGURSSRUWLRQVRIWKHGDWDEHFDXVHWKH\DUHRQO\DYHUDJHRUQHJDWLYH7KRVHGDWDDUHMXVWDV LPSRUWDQW$QRWKHUSLWIDOOWRDYRLGLVRSWLRQDOVWRSSLQJ,W·VLPSRUWDQWWKDW\RXGHFODUHDQXPEHU RIWULDOVLQDGYDQFHDQGVWLFNZLWKWKDWQXPEHU,WLVHDV\WRTXLWZKLOH\RX·UHDKHDGDQGDYRLGWKH inclusion of negative results. $OOWHVWVDUHVXEMHFWWRUDQGRPHIIHFWVWKDWFDQ·WEHFRQWUROOHG:LWKDODUJHUQXPEHURIWULDOVLW becomes more likely that these random factors will cancel each other out and that a real phenomenon ZLOOEHGHWHFWHGLILWH[LVWV ([SHULPHQWHUVFDQLQIOXHQFHWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIVXEMHFWVWKURXJKFRQVFLRXVRUXQFRQVFLRXVELDV EHLQJLQWURGXFHGLQWRWKHH[SHULPHQW,IWKLVEHKDYLRULVQRWFRQWUROOHGWKLVFDQVXEVWDQWLDOO\DIIHFW UHVHDUFKUHVXOWV([SHULPHQWHUVFDQDOVRXQNQRZLQJO\EHDVRXUFHRILQIRUPDWLRQDIIHFWLQJWKH VXEMHFW·VUHVSRQVH LHIDFLDOH[SUHVVLRQV 7KHXVHRIWKHWHFKQLTXHNQRZQDVGRXEOHEOLQGLV HVVHQWLDOWR(63WHVWLQJ,QGRXEOHEOLQGWULDOVQHLWKHUWKHVXEMHFWVRIWKHH[SHULPHQWQRUWKHSHUVRQV DGPLQLVWHULQJWKHH[SHULPHQWNQRZWKHFULWLFDODVSHFWVRIWKHH[SHULPHQW You will be able to avoid the above problems and produce more meaningful data by adhering to the following five rules . . . Rule 1 'HFODUHLQDGYDQFHZKHWKHU\RXUVHWRIWHVWVZLOOEHDQDFWXDOWHVWRURQO\DGU\UXQ,ILW LV DQDFWXDOWHVWFRXQWLWLQWKHILQDOHYDOXDWLRQ,IQRWGRQRWFRXQWLWDQGRQO\NHHSLWIRU reference. Rule 2: Always complete a set of tests by conducting the number of trials that was decided upon and recorded before the start of the test. Further tests may be run, but these must be set up and recorded in the same manner as the previous one, with the number of trials decided upon and recorded ahead of time. Rule 3: 6HWWKHQXPEHURIWULDOVDVODUJHDVVHHPVSUDFWLFDO%HFDXVH\RXPD\EHOLPLWHGE\WKH OHQJWKRI\RXUFODVVSHULRGWKDWQXPEHUPD\EH,I\RXKDYHPRUHWLPHLQFUHDVH\RXU sample to 250 or 500. Rule 4: .HHSDFDUHIXOUHFRUGRIWHVWFRQGLWLRQVHVWDEOLVKHGIRUHDFKWHVWDVZHOODVYDULDWLRQV IURPRQHWHVWWRDQRWKHU%\WKLVPHDQV\RXPD\ILQGWKDWVRPHRWKHUZLVHWULYLDOIDFWRULV seriously affecting the test results. Rule 5: $QRXWVLGHMXGJHXQDZDUHRIH[SHFWHGUHVXOWVPXVWEHXVHGWRUHFRUGDQGWRWDOWKHVFRUHV on the data sheets. 2=G=C6/D33A>- @3D7A32 6/1/11 /0=CB163/B7<5 As you become more familiar with conducting tests of this kind, you will become aware of the many ZD\VLQZKLFKDQH[SHULPHQWHURUVXEMHFWFRXOGFKHDWWRFKDQJHWKHUHVXOWV7KLVW\SHRIWDPSHULQJ KDVRFFXUUHGUHJXODUO\LQWKHKLVWRU\RI(63UHVHDUFK0RVWPDMRU´EUHDNWKURXJKVµLQSDUDSV\FKRORJ\ UHVHDUFKKDYHIDLOHGWRZLWKVWDQGDQ\W\SHRIFDUHIXOH[DPLQDWLRQZKHQWKHHYLGHQFHKDVEHHQPDGH available for analysis. More important is that published positive results have never been replicated ZKHQWKHH[SHULPHQWVDUHUHSHDWHGE\LQGHSHQGHQWUHVHDUFKHUV 7KLVPRGXOHZLOOJLYH\RXWKHWRROVWRGRSUHOLPLQDU\H[SHULPHQWVEDVHGRQWKRVHFRQGXFWHGE\ SDUDSV\FKRORJLVWV$OWKRXJKPDQ\VHULRXVVFLHQWLILFLQYHVWLJDWLRQVLQWR(63UHTXLUHGPXFKDGGLWLRQDO planning and resources, those studies were only as good as the attention given to establishing and PDLQWDLQLQJFDUHIXOFRQWURORIWKHUHVHDUFKFRQGLWLRQV7KHVDPHZLOOEHWUXHRI\RXUH[SHULPHQWV Project Alpha Fools Scientists In 1979, The McDonnell Laboratory for Psychical Research at Washington University in St. Louis was awarded a grant of $500,000; the money would be XVHGIRUVFLHQWLÀFLQYHVWLJDWLRQ into psychic phenomena under controlled laboratory conditions. James Randi, a professional magician and veteran psychic investigator expressed concern that the proposed research methods were vulnerable to study subjects with knowledge of magic tricks. Randi prepared for the researchers a list of activities to be wary of and offered suggestions for preventing such trickery. He stressed the need for the most L to R: Steve “Banachek” Shaw, Michael Edwards, and James Randi rigid experimental controls reality, the two were skilled After 21 months, Shaw, Edwards, possible. His recommendations magicians associated with Randi. and Randi publicly announced the were ignored. They had been using sleight-of- elaborate hoax. The announcement Two primary subjects of the lab’s hand tricks, which were mistaken was met with responses describing research were teenagers Steve for a wide range of paranormal the project as everything from Shaw and Michael Edwards. They abilities. They used methods “triumphant” to “reckless.” were asked to participate in the from mentalism and magic to Many, even some within the study because of preliminary subtle misdirection to alter parapsychological community, results suggesting they possessed research equipment, distract the agreed the hoax was long overdue the paranormal ability of spoon researchers, and alter established and was successful in exposing the bending, an area of special protocols—often right in front of dangers of ignoring the need for interest to the researchers. In the investigators and cameras. rigid protocols. 2=G=C6/D33A>- @3D7A32 6/1/11 QMBOOJOHBOBMZ[JOHUIFEBUB @3A3/@16=0831B7D3 *RRGH[SHULPHQWDOVFLHQFHEHJLQVZLWKFOHDUO\VWDWHGUHVHDUFKREMHFWLYHV7KHREMHFWLYHVZLOO keep the research focused and will guide the selection of methods for collecting and analyzing WKHGDWD$JRRGSODFHWRVWDUWLVE\LGHQWLI\LQJZKDWLVWKHVLQJOHPRVWLPSRUWDQWTXHVWLRQWKDW\RX ZDQWWKLVUHVHDUFKWRDQVZHU2QFH\RXIUDPHVXFKDTXHVWLRQ\RXFDQWKHQGHWHUPLQHLILWFDQEH DQVZHUHGE\H[SHULPHQWDOWHVWV)RUH[DPSOH´,VYLGHRJDPHSOD\UHODWHGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQKDQG H\HFRRUGLQDWLRQ"µLVDTXHVWLRQWKDWFRXOGLQSULQFLSOHEHDQVZHUHGE\DQH[SHULPHQWWKDWWHVWV coordination of volunteers before and after they learn to play a certain video game. On the other KDQGDTXHVWLRQOLNH´6KRXOGYLGHRJDPLQJEHWDXJKWLQVFKRRO"µLVDTXHVWLRQWKDWLQYROYHVYDOXH MXGJPHQWVWKDWDUHEH\RQGWKHVFRSHRIH[SHULPHQWDOUHVHDUFK ,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRPDNHVXUHWKDW\RXUUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVDUHVWDWHGLQZD\VWKDWDUHFOHDUDQGQRWRSHQ to misinterpretation. This can be especially challenging when research involves unusual claims such DV(63RUSV\FKLFDELOLW\4XHVWLRQVOLNH´&DQSV\FKLFVVHQVHWKLQJV"µDQG´,V(63UHDO"µDUHWRR YDJXH$EHWWHUUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQZRXOGEH´&DQWHVWVXEMHFWVFRUUHFWO\LGHQWLI\=HQHUFDUGVZLWKRXW WKHDLGRIWUDGLWLRQDOVHQVHV"µ Those making psychic claims are often vague about the actual abilities they claim to possess. When someone states that s/he can effectively predict the outcome of a dice roll, this claim is specific and FDQEHWHVWHGIRUYDOLGLW\$SV\FKLF·VFODLPWKDWVKHFDQ´VHQVHWKLQJVµLVQRWGHILQHGZHOOHQRXJKWR H[DPLQHVFLHQWLILFDOO\ 6G>=B63A7AB3AB7<5 *RRGUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVJHQHUDOO\OHDGWRFRPSHWLQJVWDWHPHQWVRUK\SRWKHVHVWKDWFDQEHWHVWHG DJDLQVWHDFKRWKHU6FLHQWLILFVWXGLHVDUHWHVWVRIWKHVHWKHRUHWLFDOO\OLNHO\K\SRWKHVHVDQGDUHGHULYHG IURPZKDWVFLHQWLVWVKDYHOHDUQHGDERXWWKHUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQ$WKHRUHWLFDOO\OLNHO\K\SRWKHVLVLVRQH ZKLFKLVOLNHO\WREHWUXHEXWRQHIRUZKLFKZHGRQRW\HWKDYHHQRXJKHYLGHQFHWRDFFHSW6RPHWLPHV a researcher is interested in testing a hypothesis that is not theoretically likely and even in conflict ZLWKFXUUHQWVFLHQWLILFXQGHUVWDQGLQJ7KHVHFDQEHFDOOHG´H[WUDRUGLQDU\FODLPVµDQGUHTXLUH ´H[WUDRUGLQDU\HYLGHQFHµIRUVXSSRUW 6FLHQFHVWDUWVZLWKWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWZKDWZHFXUUHQWO\NQRZDERXWWKHZRUOGLVFRUUHFW7KLVDOORZV XVWRGHYHORSD´QXOOK\SRWKHVLVµRUDVWDWHPHQWRIQRHIIHFW,WLVLPSRUWDQWWKDWWKLVVWDWHPHQWEHERWK WHVWDEOHDQGIDOVLILDEOH7KH´DOWHUQDWLYHK\SRWKHVLVµGHVFULEHVVRPHNLQGRIHIIHFWRUUHODWLRQVKLS 7KHVHVWDWHPHQWVVKRXOGEHDVSUHFLVHDQGTXDQWLWDWLYHDVSRVVLEOH)RUH[DPSOHLQRXU=HQHUFDUG JXHVVLQJH[SHULPHQWRXUQXOOK\SRWKHVLVZRXOGEH´6XEMHFWVFDQQRWFRUUHFWO\SUHGLFWFDUGVDQ\ EHWWHUWKDQMXVWJXHVVLQJµ PHDQLQJWKDWQR(63KDVEHHQGHPRQVWUDWHG :HDUHWHVWLQJWKDWDJDLQVW WKHDOWHUQDWLYHK\SRWKHVLVWKDW´6XEMHFWVFDQFRUUHFWO\SUHGLFWFDUGVPRUHRIWHQWKDQZH·GH[SHFWE\ MXVWJXHVVLQJµ HYLGHQFHWKDWWKHVXEMHFWPD\KDYH(63 :KHQZHGHVLJQDVWXG\ZHGRRXUEHVWWRHQVXUHWKDWLIWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVLVUHMHFWHGWKHRQO\ K\SRWKHVLVOHIWWKDWFRXOGH[SODLQWKHILQGLQJVLVWKHUHVHDUFKK\SRWKHVLV WKDWWKHSDUWLFLSDQWLVSV\FKLF AB/B7AB71/:A75<7471/<13 :KDWZRXOGHYLGHQFHIRU(63ORRNOLNH",QFDUGJXHVVLQJH[SHULPHQWVLWZRXOGPHDQJHWWLQJVRPH QXPEHUPRUH´KLWVµWKDQVRPHRQHZLWKRXW(63PLJKWH[SHFWWRJHW:KHQ´MXVWJXHVVLQJµRQHRIWKH 2=G=C6/D33A>- ! @3D7A32 6/1/11 ILYH=HQHUV\PEROV\RXVKRXOGH[SHFWWRJHWDERXWRQHRXWRIHYHU\ILYHWULHVEXWVRPHWLPHVLWZLOO EHPRUHDQGVRPHWLPHVLWZLOOEHOHVV([DFWO\KRZPDQ\PRUHKLWVZRXOG\RXQHHGLQRUGHUWRWHOOWKH GLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQRUGLQDU\YDULDELOLW\DQGH[WUDRUGLQDU\DELOLW\" 6FLHQWLVWVXVHWKHPDWKHPDWLFVRISUREDELOLW\WRGHWHUPLQHKRZPDQ\KLWVZRXOGEHQHHGHG WRDFKLHYHDVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWUHVXOW8QOLNHWKHZD\ZHXVHWKHZRUG´VLJQLILFDQFHµLQ everyday conversation, this special kind of significance tells us nothing about the importance or PHDQLQJIXOQHVVRIRXUILQGLQJV6WDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFHRQO\WHOOVXVKRZXQOLNHO\LWLVWKDWRXUUHVXOWV occurred by chance. )RUDJLYHQQXPEHURIWULHVZHFDOFXODWHWKHOLNHOLKRRGRIJHWWLQJKLWVZLWKRXW(637KHODUJHUWKH QXPEHURIKLWVWKHVPDOOHULVWKHOLNHOLKRRGRIDFKLHYLQJLWMXVWE\JXHVVLQJPDNLQJWKHHYLGHQFH DJDLQVWMXVWJXHVVLQJDQGIRU(63PRUHFRPSHOOLQJ*HQHUDOO\VFLHQWLVWVUHTXLUHDSHUIRUPDQFHVR FRQVLVWHQWWKDWLWVOLNHOLKRRGRIKDSSHQLQJMXVWE\JXHVVZRUNLVOHVVWKDQ7KLVOLNHOLKRRGRIDUHVXOW by chance is called the significance level, and smaller is better in the sense that small likelihoods PHDQPRUHLPSUHVVLYHSHUIRUPDQFH,QVRPHUHVHDUFKZKHUHWKHVWDNHVDUHKLJKZHUHTXLUHDQHYHQ PRUHH[WUHPHOHYHORISHUIRUPDQFHFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRDVLJQLILFDQFHOHYHORIRUHYHQOHVV 7KHOHYHORIVLJQLILFDQFHIRUDQH[SHULPHQWVKRXOGEHFKRVHQEHIRUHDQ\GDWDLVFROOHFWHG A/;>:3A7H3 +RZPDQ\WULHVGR\RXQHHGLQRUGHUWRKDYHDJRRGH[SHULPHQW"$VPDOOVDPSOHPD\EHHQRXJK WRWHOOWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQQR(63DQGDSHUIHFWDELOLW\WRJXHVVFRUUHFWO\HYHU\WLPH³DIWHUDOO DVLQJOHPLVVZRXOGIDOVLI\DFODLPRISHUIHFWLRQ%XWSDUDSV\FKRORJLVWVJHQHUDOO\GRQ·WPDNHFODLPV RISHUIHFWDELOLWLHV DPRUHUHDOLVWLFK\SRWKHVLVLVWKDWVRPHRQHLVD´OLWWOHELWµSV\FKLFZLWKSV\FKLF DELOLWLHVWKDWDOORZWKHPWRSHUIRUPVLJQLILFDQWO\EHWWHUWKDQFKDQFH,WZRXOGWDNHDPXFKODUJHU sample to fairly test a hypothesis relating to a moderate psychic ability. 7KLQNDERXWIOLSSLQJDFRLQ,I\RXSUHGLFWKHDGVDQGIOLSLWRQFHDQGJHWKHDGV\RXFRXOGFODLPWKDW \RXFRUUHFWO\SUHGLFWHGWKHRXWFRPHRIWKHWLPH7KDWLVQRWH[WUDRUGLQDU\LI\RXNQRZWKHUH ZDVRQO\IOLS FKDQFH 7U\LWILYHWLPHV*HWWLQJLWULJKWLVOHVVOLNHO\EXWSHUKDSVVWLOOZLWKLQWKH H[SHFWDWLRQVRIFKDQFH:LWKMXVWIOLSV\RXDUHORRNLQJDWDFKDQFHRIDERXWLQDQGDWIOLSV \RXKDYHRGGVRIDERXWLQ:KLOHDQ\RQHZRXOGDJUHHWKDWSUHGLFWLQJDVLQJOHFRLQIOLSGRHVQ·W SURYHVRPHRQHSV\FKLFPRVWZRXOGXQGHUVWDQGWKDWWKHVDPHUDWHUDSLGO\EHFRPHVOHVVOLNHO\ the result of chance as the sample size increases and more likely the result of some other force acting on the coin. Once the level of significance is set, we can mathematically calculate how large the sample would QHHGWREHLQRUGHUWRKDYHDJRRGWHVWIRUDJLYHQOHYHORISUHFLVLRQ LQRWKHUZRUGVWRUHDVRQDEO\ GHWHFWDJLYHQGHJUHHRIDELOLW\EHWWHUWKDQMXVWJXHVVLQJ &DOFXODWLRQVOLNHWKLVDUHLPSRUWDQWZKHQSODQQLQJDQH[SHULPHQW)RUH[DPSOHLIWKHDELOLW\ being tested is very modest, then it is important to know up front if there will be sufficient time and resources to collect the very large amount of data that would be needed. /- @3D7A32 6/1/11 # ' !$ & & # $! # # $ ! ! ""$ # 7aOU]]R\c[PS`W\bVObWbOZZ]ea ^OaaSabV`]cUVbVSRSQYOQ]\dS\WS\bO\R\]bb]]]dS`eVSZ[W\U\c[PS`bVOb QO\PSQ][^ZSbSRW\OaW\UZSQZOaa^S`W]R You can see that small sample sizes demand a much greater level of successful performance. For LQVWDQFHDVXEMHFWZKRFRUUHFWO\SUHGLFWHGFDUGVRXWRIWULHVKDVIDLOHGWRJLYHDVWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQWSHUIRUPDQFHHYHQWKRXJKWKH\VFRUHGFRUUHFW$QXQVXFFHVVIXOWHVWGRHVQRW QHFHVVDULO\SURYHWKDWWKHVXEMHFWODFNV(63 LWRQO\VKRZVWKDWDQ\DELOLW\ZDVEHORZWKHGHWHFWDEOH WKUHVKROGIRUWKDWH[SHULPHQW7KLVLVZK\LWLVVRLPSRUWDQWWRGHVLJQWHVWVWKDWEDODQFHWKHQHHGIRU scientific rigor and skepticism against the need to fairly consider reasonable claims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³EXWWKHSURFHVVGRHVQ WHQGWKHUH2QHRI the reasons science works so well is because the ideas that are produced can be scrutinized by the rest of the scientific community. This scientific community can use its accumulated knowledge and IXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQWRZHLJKWKHHYLGHQFHIRURUDJDLQVWQHZLGHDV%DGLGHDVGRQ WODVW%HFDXVHRI WKLVZHVD\WKDWVFLHQFHLVVHOIFRUUHFWLQJ We also share the results of our research with the scientific community because science is collaborative. We can often increase our understanding of phenomena by comparing our results ZLWKWKRVHRIRWKHUUHVHDUFKHUVRUE\UHSHDWLQJWKHLUH[SHULPHQWVWRGHWHUPLQHLIWKHLUILQGLQJVFDQ be replicated. ,I\RXZRXOGOLNHWRVKDUHWKHUHVXOWVRI\RXU(63WULDOVZLWKVFKRROVIURPDURXQGWKHZRUOGWKDWKDYH used this same classroom kit, scan your datasheets and email them to [email protected]. We will be compiling results and making them available on our website. $ 2=G=C6/D33A>- @3D7A32 6/1/11 GVSUIFSSFBEJOH 7<>@7 )UD]LHU. Science Confronts the Paranormal%XIIDOR1< 3URPHWKHXV%RRNV +RUQ6 Unbelievable: Investigations into Ghosts, Poltergeists, Telepathy, and Other Unseen Phenomena IURPWKH'XNH3DUDSV\FKRORJ\/DERUDWRU\1HZ +\PDQ5 The Elusive Quarry: A Scientific Appraisal of Psychical Research.%XIIDOR1< 3URPHWKHXV %RRNV 5DQGL- Flim-flam!: Psychics, ESP, Unicorns, and Other Delusions.%XIIDOR1< 3URPHWKHXV%RRNV 6KHUPHU0 The Borderlands of Science: Where Sense Meets Nonsense. 2[IRUG 2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV :LVHPDQ5 -DQXDU\ 'Heads I Win, Tails You Lose'+RZ3DUDSV\FKRORJLVWV1XOOLI\1XOO5HVXOWV7KH 6NHSWLFDO,QTXLUHU =<B63E30 &DUUROO5REHUW7 Project Alpha. The Skeptics Dictionary. Retrieved from http://www.skepdic.com/projectalpha.html 7KH5KLQH5HVHDUFK&HQWHU -XQH The History of the Rhine Research Center. Retrieved from http://www.rhine.org/history.htm &DUSL$DQG(JJHU$ Statistics. The Process of Science. 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