March 27, 2015
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SUSTAINABLE HIGHWAY 99 CORRIDOR PLAN MARKET STUDY ADMINISTRATIVE DRAFT REPORT Prepared for County of Tulare Prepared by In association with Kosmont Companies March 27, 2015 Tel 510.684.6253 Fax 510.898.1778 2140 Shattuck Avenue, #2239 [email protected] Berkeley, CA 94704 March 27, 2015 Michael Washam Economic Development Manager County of Tulare 5961 South Mooney Boulevard Visalia, CA 93277 Dear Mr. Michael: Enclosed is an Administrative Draft of the Highway 99 Corridor Market Study Report. We look forward to your feedback. Let me know how you would like to proceed after you review this document. Sincerely, Stephen Wahlstrom Principal TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1 2. Regional Demographic Trends ...................................................................................... 6 3. Tulare County’s Economic Setting ............................................................................... 9 3.1 Agricultural Economy ............................................................................................. 9 3.2 Employment Trends .............................................................................................. 10 4. Business Expansion and Attraction Targets .............................................................. 15 4.1 Target Industry Selection Criteria .......................................................................... 15 4.2 Business Expansion and Attraction Targets ........................................................... 17 5. Community Characteristics ......................................................................................... 26 5.1 Corridor Demographics ........................................................................................... 26 5.2 Corridor Employment .............................................................................................. 27 5.3 Community Profiles .................................................................................................. 29 6. Economic Development Opportunity Sites ................................................................ 42 7. Implementation Actions to Support Sustainable Development ................................ 54 Appendix Table A-1: Population Growth Rates Table A-2: Population Growth Components Table A-3: In/Out-Migration Table A-4: Language Table A-5: Age Table A-6: Education Table A-7: Labor Force Table A-8: Income Table A-9: Poverty Table A-10: State Employment Table A-11: Regional Employment Wahlstrom &Associates Table A-12: Tulare County Employment Table A-13: Population & Housing Growth Table A-14: Population By Age Table A-15: Education Table A-16: Labor Force Table A-17: Primary Language Table A-18: Household Income Table A-19: Traver Business Establishments Table A-20: Traver Non-Farm Establishments Table A-21: Goshen Business Establishments Table A-22: Goshen Non-Farm Establishments Table A-23: Tipton Agricultural Establishments Table A-24: Tipton Non-Farm Establishments Table A-25: Tipton Non-Farm Growth Table A-26: Pixley & Teviston Agricultural Establishments Table A-27: Pixley & Teviston Non-Farm Establishments Table A-28: Pixley & Teviston Non-Farm Growth Table A-29: Earlimart Establishments Table A-30: Earlimart Non-Farm Trends Sustainable Highway 99 Corridor Plan Market Study 1 Administrative Draft Report March 27, 2015 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Highway 99 Corridor Market Study provides Tulare County with the information required to attract business and develop new commercial and industrial real estate in Traver, Goshen, Tipton, Pixley and Earlimart. The geography of the scope was expanded to include Tulare County sites just across the County lines from Kingsburg and Delano. The market study also incorporates a landowner’s proposal to develop a regional shopping center at the Highway 99 and Caldwell Avenue interchange. The market study findings and conclusions are described below Business Expansion and Attraction Targets Tulare County lost 5,200 jobs during the recession, of which 3,900 jobs were recovered between 2010 and 2013. The recession and recovery significantly altered Tulare County’s economy. Since the 2008 financial crises some strong industries became weak, and new industries have emerged as business expansion and attraction targets during the recovery. Tulare County’s recovery, which started in late 2009 was fueled by business expansion, and very few firms have been attracted to the area this decade. The target industry sectors listed below added 2,200 new jobs between 2009 and 2013 while the number of establishments declined from 416 to 396. The expansion and attraction targets that are best suited to locate in the unincorporated communities along the Highway 99 corridor include: § Food processing manufacturing § Paper product manufacturing § Chemical product manufacturing § Plastics and Rubber Product Manufacturing § Fabricated Metal Manufacturing § Machinery Manufacturing § Professional and Commercial Equipment Distribution § Electronic Goods Distribution § Drug Sundries Distribution § Petroleum Products Distribution § Truck Transportation § Warehouse and Storage Sustainable Highway 99 Corridor Plan Market Study 2 Administrative Draft Report March 27, 2015 Economic Development Opportunity Sites Opportunity sites within each unincorporated community along the Highway 99 corridor need to offer good business locations in order to absorb the demand for space. The Visalia Industrial Park has a number of shovel-ready undeveloped sites that can be developed without the property owners or business prospects incurring costly and time-consuming infrastructure improvements. The characteristics of the unincorporated communities and the 16 economic development opportunity sites are described below. Site #1: Former Cold Storage Facility Near Kingsburg The 6.5-acre site includes a railroad spur and 88,600 square feet of buildings formerly used for packing and storing tree fruit and table grapes. A new buyer may want to redevelop the site and tear down the existing structures Traver Characteristics and Sites Traver is a community of 660 residents with 14 business establishments that generate 355 jobs. Community population is in decline but job growth is robust. Three economic development opportunity sites were identified in Traver, but attracting investment to develop the sites must overcome the lack of infrastructure services. Any new development on the sites listed below must rely on private investment to construct a new groundwater well and on-site wastewater treatment; § Site #2: An undeveloped site west of the freeway is well located for highway commercial services; § Site #3: Undeveloped land on the Northeast corner of 6th and Merritt could attract industrial, distribution or transportation uses; § Site #4: Productive farmland on the Southeast corner of 6th and Merritt could be developed for more visitor services building upon the success of Bravo Farms. Goshen Characteristics and Sites Traver is a community of only 3,200 people with 28 business establishments that generate 270 jobs. Residents have earned relatively high household incomes, and they have completed relatively high rates of formal education. The Caltrans project to replace the Betty Drive interchange and overpass will have a significant physical and economic impact on the community. In addition, Goshen has infrastructure capacity because of agreements made with Visalia to access their water system and wastewater treatment plant. Four economic development opportunity sites listed below were identified in Goshen, but only two sites have water delivery and sewer collection lines that Sustainable Highway 99 Corridor Plan Market Study 3 Administrative Draft Report March 27, 2015 extend to project area boundary. The other two sites must rely on groundwater and extending the sewer lines to the site. § Site #5: Undeveloped land northeast of Effie Drive/Nutmeg Road is well suited for industrial uses, but would require private investment in a new groundwater well; § Site #6: Undeveloped land between Betty Drive, Effie Drive/Nutmeg Road and Road 67 has access to Goshen’s water and sewer collection lines, which may be attractive for industrial uses; § Site #7: Farmland along Betty Drive west of Road 72 that is available for mixed use development has wastewater treatment and water delivery lines extending to the edge of the site; § Site #8: Farmland south of Avenue 304, between Camp Drive and Highway 99 that is designated for light industrial uses has wastewater treatment water delivery lines extending to the project area site. Site #9: Caldwell Avenue Interchange Proposed Regional Shopping Center The 126-acre site is strategically located at an important and undeveloped interchange. Efforts to develop a regional shopping center will be constrained by the lack of access to sewer and other required utilities such as water, electrical and natural gas services. The proposed shopping center will also require significant improvements to the interchange. Tipton Characteristics and Sites Tipton is a community of only 2,750 people and 33 business establishments that generate 865 jobs. Tipton’s residents are young and they have completed a low percentage of formal education. The community includes a significant number of low-income households and a large percentage of Spanish only speaking people. The identified economic development opportunity sites are described below. § Site #10: A small