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Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a New Compass for the Post-COVID Recovery

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Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a New Compass for the Post-COVID Recovery Platform for Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a New Compass for the Post-COVID Recovery October 2020 Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a New Compass for the Post-COVID Recovery Under the umbrella of the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset initiative, this report outlines a general framework for macroeconomic targets beyond GDP growth – a Dashboard for a New Economy – to serve as a guide for the post-COVID-19 economic recovery and as a starting point for further debate and convergence of targets and approaches among governments and economic policy-makers globally. Building on findings from the World Economic Forum’s regular Chief Economists Survey, the report demonstrates the practical relevance of the framework by assessing the current state of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and policy action based on the proposed dimensions of the Dashboard. The report builds on the latest economic policy research as well as extensive consultations with the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on the New Economic Agenda and a growing community of more than 40 leading chief economists from both the public and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Platform for Shaping the Future of the New Economy and Society. Dashboard for a New Economy Contents Introduction 4 Towards a new compass for the post-COVID-19 economy 6 Assessing the current state of economic recovery 9 Prosperity 9 Planet 11 People 12 Institutions 12 A call to action 14 Appendix 15 References 17 Acknowledgments 20 Cover: Getty Images/People Images 3 Dashboard for a New Economy Introduction The simultaneous disruption caused by mainstreamed more fully into economic the COVID-19 crisis in nearly every country analyses, implemented more fully by around the world has forced societies governments and tracked more fully by into a moment of pause and reflection policy-makers on an ongoing basis along on what is truly of value. Rebuilding the with an updated definition of GDP. post-pandemic economy in this spirit will require a more comprehensive definition of The general Dashboard framework and economic success to serve as a guide for principles presented in this report are an the economic recovery. open invitation for governments, economists and other interested stakeholders to come Despite a range of long-standing efforts together and work towards a common to define alternative measures of economic core set of targets to guide the economic progress, reverting to conventional growth recovery. The purpose of this paper is not to in gross domestic product (GDP) as the present a new and separate framework, but core economic policy objective remains rather to provide a platform for stakeholders a reflex for most governments. Indeed, to converge on a common narrative as to the latest survey of the Forum’s Chief what constitutes economic success in the Economists Community finds that global post-pandemic world. progress by governments in implementing multidimensional measures of economic Recent traction for non-financial business performance is perceived to be limited success metrics has been encouraging and at best. the strong momentum for convergence in the environmental, social and corporate In the wake of COVID-19, much energy governance (ESG) space should be has gone into trying to predict whether leveraged for a similar push to mainstream the economic recovery will be “V-shaped”, economic policy metrics beyond GDP at “U-shaped”, “L-shaped” or “K-shaped”. the national level. While there had been a Yet, targeting a recovery in GDP growth proliferation of ESG targets for businesses, alone will not be sufficient to advance there is now a drive towards convergence the holistic economic, environmental of non-financial reporting standards.1 and societal reset that is needed at this The framework put forward by the World moment. Instead, the recovery itself will Economic Forum’s International Business need to be anchored in such a reset. In line Council in September 2020 has provided with this ambition, non-financial economic important momentum on the road to such performance measures will need to be further convergence.2 1 The Economist, 2020 2 International Business Council and World Economic Forum, 2020 4 Dashboard for a New Economy National-level targets will need to be Goals. It aims to strike a balance between reported in a similarly disciplined and being comprehensive and yet, at the same rigorous way and both sets of metrics time, concise enough to serve as a mental – firm- and macro-level – should ideally model for thinking about the recovery and be consistent with each other. The future progress. Dashboard proposed in the first part of this report is therefore organized along In line with this ambition of a more the four dimensions of prosperity, planet, comprehensive and demanding definition people, and institutions, following the same of economic success, the second part of overarching structure as the International this report presents a multidimensional Business Council’s proposal and consistent assessment of the recovery to the extent with the UN Sustainable Development that data availability allows. 5 Dashboard for a New Economy Towards a new compass for the post-COVID-19 economy Recent years have seen several economic, environmental, health and extensive and rigorous efforts to identify social targets and consider them as relevant elements of well-being and tackle inextricably linked. Events in recent different dimensions of the measurement years have made clear on national and question. These include the UNDP’s global scales the close interconnections Human Development Index (1990-2020); between the different dimensions of the comprehensive review of well-being economic progress and well-being – dimensions by Stiglitz, Sen and Fitoussi such as health and economic outcomes (2009); the OECD’s Better Life project in the current COVID-19 crisis; or (2018, 2020); the Bennett Institute’s environmental and social reform in the Wealth Economy Project (2019); the case of France’s gilets jaunes protests. Recoupling Dashboard (2019); and the World Economic Forum’s Global Some of the targets included are at Competitiveness Index (1979-2019), the same time drivers of productivity Inclusive Development Index (2015, and GDP growth, such as public health 2017) and Social Mobility Index (2020). outcomes and educational attainment; while certain environmental targets may Building on and synthesizing this extensive present trade-offs with increasing GDP set of work, we propose five core principles or carry distributional consequences to anchor a new narrative and set of policy depending on how they are pursued. targets for the post-COVID economy: 2. Update the measure of GDP and a 1. Balance people, planet, prosperity, re-evaluate growth as a core policy institutions and recognize their target: The definition of GDP will need interlinkages and trade-offs: The to be updated to accurately capture the framework should be consistent with value of activity that does not have a the UN Sustainable Development Goals market price, for example digital activity and ESG dimensions proposed by and care work, and to exclude extractive the International Business Council but activity – both environmental and include a broader set of targets given financial. GDP growth as the core policy that governments have more levers to target will also need to be re-evaluated. steer the recovery than businesses do.3 Beyond the immediate context of the ongoing crisis, the role of economic A forward-looking agenda and compass growth in advancing living standards will need to anchor a balance between in recent years has been different 3 International Business Council and World Economic Forum, 2020 6 Dashboard for a New Economy depending on the setting. In high-income by rapid policy intervention, this economies, long-term productivity situation will change once wage growth has been steadily declining since support programmes are phased the 1970s, and it has been argued out in the coming months. Globally, that there are currently no clear policy acceleration of the digitalization of avenues for reviving it.4 What little business processes will likely entail a growth there was has disproportionately labour market recovery that does not accrued to individuals in the top 1% make up for middle-skilled jobs lost of the income distribution. It has been during the pandemic. proposed therefore that a more beneficial path may be to target welfare-enhancing Furthermore, a prolonged decoupling interventions more directly.5 of the stock market from labour market dynamics will lead to widening wealth In low- and middle-income countries, inequality, and a climate transition benefits of economic growth have been carries the risk of regressive outcomes more evenly spread and lifted millions if it is not carefully managed. While it will out of poverty in large emerging markets. be important to track developments in The avenues for policy support to boost both income and wealth distributions, growth performance were better known it is not clear that the level of inequality until the manufacturing-led development per se should be a target that is model lost much of its force with included in a Dashboard – in particular the advent of the Fourth Industrial since different phases of economic Revolution. While the case for boosting development are associated with economic growth remains strong, the different levels of inequality. It has been direction of future growth also needs to argued that a measure of social mobility be actively shaped. or equality of opportunity would be a more robust concept to monitor. 3. Monitor distributional outcomes and access to opportunity: The 4. Include future-orientation and crisis has had a deeply uneven impact, resilience: Beyond simply considering exacerbating existing dynamics of a broader set of factors, macro-level economic and social polarization performance indicators will need to be and deepening historical patterns of designed to be more forward-looking, disadvantage.
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