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Citi GPS: Technology at Work V2.0 TECHNOLOGY AT WORK v2.0 The Future Is Not What It Used to Be Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions January 2016 Citi is one of the world’s largest financial institutions, operating in all major established and emerging markets. Across these world markets, our employees conduct an ongoing multi-disciplinary global conversation – accessing information, analyzing data, developing insights, and formulating advice for our clients. As our premier thought-leadership product, Citi GPS is designed to help our clients navigate the global economy’s most demanding challenges, identify future themes and trends, and help our clients profit in a fast-changing and interconnected world. Citi GPS accesses the best elements of our global conversation and harvests the thought leadership of a wide range of senior professionals across our firm. This is not a research report and does not constitute advice on investments or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. For more information on Citi GPS, please visit our website at www.citi.com/citigps. Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions January 2016 Carl Benedikt Frey Michael A Osborne Co-Director for the Oxford Martin Co-Director for the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Programme on Technology and Employment and Oxford Martin Citi Employment and Associate Fellow Professor in Machine Learning at the University of Oxford Craig Holmes Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School and Teaching Fellow in Economics, Pembroke College, University of Oxford Ebrahim Rahbari Elizabeth Curmi Global Economics Team Thematic Analyst +1-212-816-5081 | +44-20-7986-6818 | [email protected] [email protected] Robert Garlick Johanna Chua Global Equity Product Head Head of Asia Pacific Economics and Market Analysis +44-20-7986-3547 | [email protected] +852-2501-2357 | [email protected] George Friedlander Peter Chalif Municipal Strategy & Policy Head of Structured Trading, Municipal Securities +1-212-723-4451 | [email protected] +1-212-723-3518 | [email protected] Graeme McDonald Martin Wilkie Japan Machinery & Shipbuilding Head of European Capital Goods Analyst Research +81-3-6270-4732 | +44-207-986-4077 | [email protected] [email protected] Contributors Greg R Badishkanian Jason B Bazinet Alex Chang Tina M Fordham Arthur Lai Tiia Lehto Kate McShane, CFA Walter H Pritchard, CFA Ashwin Shirvaikar, CFA Fred Wightman Ken Wong, CFA Steven Rogers January 2016 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 3 TECHNOLOGY AT WORK v2.0 The Future Is Not What It Used to Be It is a pleasure to introduce Technology at Work v2.0: The Future Is Not What It Used To Be. This report is the third in a long-term series of Citi GPS reports co- produced by Citi and the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford in order to explore some of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century. The report further explores the concepts introduced in our February 2015 report, Technology at Work: The Future of Innovation and Employment, which marked the introduction of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment, a long-term programme of research at the University of Oxford supported by Citi that will focus on the implications of a rapidly changing technological landscape for economies and societies. In this new report, Oxford Martin School academics; Dr. Carl Benedikt Frey, Associate Professor Michael Osborne and Dr. Craig Holmes expand their theories on the changing nature of innovation and work and the associated implications for the future of employment and society more widely. Based on their methodology that predicted 47 percent of US jobs were at risk from automation, the authors now look at the probabilities of jobs at risk across the world as well as the disparities of job risk between cities. To protect against jobs being eliminated due to automation, it is important to recognize which characteristics are most likely to be associated with a given job being automated — perception and manipulation, creative intelligence, and social intelligence are the three bottlenecks to automation. Cities and regions that have invested in skilled industries remain relatively safe from automation and technological dynamism will remain the best way to maximize employment and to benefit positively from new technologies. Education is also a very important tool that policymakers will need to leverage in preparation for the effects of accelerated technological change. Throughout this report, Citi Research analysts drill deeper into specific industries to highlight a number of sectors already feeling the effects of automation as well as areas where technology is helping to create new jobs. The Citi Research Economics team investigates whether traditional measurement tools are failing to capture the productivity and GDP improvements as well as the subsequent inflation effects that come from accelerated technological change. Finally, we look to identify adequate policy responses for the issues highlighted in this report. We hope that you enjoy this Citi GPS report. We look forward to sharing the results of the exciting collaboration between Citi and the Oxford Martin School in future reports. Andrew Pitt Ian Goldin Global Head of Research Director of the Oxford Martin School Citi Professor of Globalisation & Development University of Oxford © 2016 Citigroup Accelerating technological change What are the risks and what should we do to address them? Do you believe that automation will lead to major challenges (e.g. on labour or wealth distribution)? Source: Citi Research , somew es h Y a t answe nt o r f ca ly N ni ig s 21% 4% , No s e Y 64% 11% The risk of jobs being replaced by automation varies by country Source: World Bank Development Report (2016) UK 35% Nigeria 65% China South 77% Africa OECD 67% Ethiopia Average Thailand 57% 72% Argentina 85% 65% India US 47% 69% 47% of US jobs are at risk from automation, but not all cities have the same job risk Source: Berger, Frey and Osborne (2015) Least at risk Most at risk Boston 38.40% % of jobs at risk of automation 45.80% Houston Washington D.C. 38.40% 45.90% Sacramento Raleigh 39.70% 46.00% Dayton Baltimore 40.40% 47.00% Los Angeles New York 40.70% 47.10% Harrisburg Bridgeport 41.10% 47.10% Oklahoma City Toms River 41.20% 47.90% Grand Rapids Richmond 41.40% 48.40% Reading Minneapolis 41.40% 48.50% Greensboro Denver 41.50% 49.10% Las Vegas San Francisco 41.70% 53.80% Fresno © 2016 Citigroup Source: CitiResearch Source: techno-pessimists vs techno-optimists — doom or Boom CitiResearch Source: The payback period for robot systems are falling CitiResearch Source: Which policies are likely be to most effective to offset the risks of automation impacting labour and wealth distribution? Payback period (years) Techno-optimist 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Investment into education 2013 The encouragement of entrepreneurship 76% Active labour market 2014 policies Funding research encouraging innovation that increases employment 2015E Techno-pessimist Lower taxes for low-income households 2016E Higher taxes for 21% high-income households An increase in taxation 2017E of capital vs labour Regulations on the implementation of automation China Thailand No answer The introduction of basic living incomes 3% The encouragement of immigration An increase in policies designed to stimulate consumer demand 1 –Least likely 2 3 4 5 –Most likely No anwser 6 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions January 2016 Contents Executive Summary 7 Macro Implications How Susceptible are Countries Worldwide? Jobs at Risk of Automation 11 Does Automation Change the Trend of Offshoring to Low Cost Regions? 20 How Does Susceptibility Vary Within Countries? Cities at Risk 30 What New Jobs do We See Ahead? New Jobs in a New Economy 37 Demography vs Automation: Will We Run Out of Workers or Out of Jobs? 53 Impact of Automation on Productivity: Are Traditional Measurement Tools Failing to Capture Productivity and GDP Improvements? 61 Impact of Automation on Inflation: What Does this Point Imply for Economic and Interest Rate Cycles? 68 Industry Implications Sector Analysis: How is Automation Impacting Jobs in the Near Term? 74 What are the Barriers to Automation? 89 Policy Implications Response: Policy and Job Risk from Automation 96 What Are the Challenges for State and Local Governments from Technological Change? 104 Policies for New Job Creation in Cities 113 How Should Education Adapt In the Race Between Education and Technology? 115 Will Robot Laws Slow the Pace of Change? Privacy, Ethics and Liability Issues 125 Will Keynes Prediction of a World of Leisure Prove Correct? 136 Conclusion 145 About the Oxford Martin School 148 The Oxford Martin Programme on Technology and Employment is a new research programme established in January 2015 with support from Citi. It has been created to investigate the implications of a rapidly changing technological landscape for economies and societies. The programme will provide an in-depth understanding of how technology is transforming the economy, to help leaders create a successful transition into new ways of working in the 21st century. The programme is part of a wider research partnership between the Oxford Martin School and Citi, analysing some of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st Century. © 2016 Citigroup January 2016 Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions 7 Executive Summary1 Robert Garlick The debate over the impact of automation has been going on for several centuries, Global Equity Product Head, Citi from the Luddites in 1811 to John Maynard Keynes’ prediction of technological unemployment in the 1930's, to Stephen Hawking's recent warnings over Artificial Intelligence. Most recently, the topic has been chosen as the primary theme for the 2016 World Economic Forum meeting in Davos and the Financial Times awarded their 2015 Business Book of the Year to Martin Ford’s ‘The Rise of the Robots’.
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