Kajiado County 2020 Short Rains Food and Nutrition Security Assessment Report

KAJIADO COUNTY 2020 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT

February 2021 A Joint Report by Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Kajiado County Steering Group (CSG)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 2020 Short Rains food security assessment was carried out by the county technical team with technical support from the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The overall objective of the assessment was to objectively and with evidence provide food security situation in the county in a transparent manner following the 2020 Short Rains taking into account the cumulative effect of the previous seasons. The assessment provides recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis upon building consensus. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used during assessment including review of the existing data provided through checklists or otherwise and triangulating with field observations as well as both community and key informants interviews. Depressed rainfall was the key driver of food security in the county which resulted in below normal regeneration of pasture, recharge of water sources and crops yields. The COVID-19 epidemic negatively affected patterns of food supply and access as well as health- seeking behaviour in the county. Livestock diseases were also an important food security driver in the county. Since May 2020, livestock prices were sustained above the Long Term Average due to the reduced supply to the markets. Following the off-season rains in early January 2021, domestic water consumption has now normalized. Nutrition status of under-fives was better for the entire year as evidenced by the below long term average risk of malnutrition of 6.8 percent. Pastoral Livelihood zones strained more compared to Agro Pastoral livelihood zones to get food which is evidenced by former having a higher coping strategy index than the latter. Reported cases of diarrhoea between the July and December period reduced in 2020 compared to a similar period in 2019 for both under-fives and for the general population. The reduction in diarrhoea cases was as a result of the increased uptake of WASH practices as one of the COVID-19 pandemic control measures. On the other hand, the number of the fully immunized in July – December 2020 stood at 73.3 percent compared to 87 percent over the same period in 2019. Vitamin A coverage for 12- 59 months decreased by 27.5 percent in July-December 2020 when compared to the same period in 2019. COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected health service delivery as well as the uptake of the available services. About 500 cases of early teenage pregnancies were reported in the county since the schools closed due to COVID-19. The county was classified under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification’s Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2) and is projected to remain so for the next three months.

Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... i 1.0 INTRODUCTION ...... 2 1.1 County Background...... 2 1.2 Methodology and Approach ...... 2 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ...... 3 2.1 Rainfall Performances ...... 3 2.2 Insecurity/Conflict ...... 3 2.3 COVID-19 ...... 3 2.4 Other Shocks and Hazards ...... 3 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ...... 4 3.1 Availability ...... 4 3.1.1 Crop Production ...... 4 3.1.2 Cereals Stock ...... 5 3.1.3 Livestock Production ...... 6 3.2 Access ...... 10 3.2.1 Markets ...... 10 3.2.2 Terms of Trade (ToT) ...... 12 3.2.3 Income Sources ...... 12 3.2.4 Water Availability and Access...... 12 3.2.5 Food Consumption ...... 14 3.2.6 Coping Strategy (CSI)...... 15 3.3 Utilization ...... 15 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns ...... 15 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation ...... 16 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ...... 16 3.3.4 Health and Nutrition Sector in COVID-19 Context ...... 17 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community-level actions ...... 17 3.3.6 Coordination and Leadership in COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness and Response 17 3.3.7 Sanitation and Hygiene ...... 17 3.5 Education ...... 18 3.5.1 Enrolment ...... 18 3.5.2 Effects of COVID -19 on Schools ...... 19 3.5.3 Effects of Short Rains on Schools ...... 20 3.5.4 School Feeding Programme ...... 20 3.5.5 Inter-Sectoral Links ...... 20 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ...... 21 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions ...... 21 4.2 Food security Outlook ...... 21 5.0 Conclusion and Interventions ...... 22 5.1 Conclusion ...... 22 5.1.1 Phase Classification ...... 22 5.1.2 Summary of the Findings ...... 22 5.2 Ongoing Interventions ...... 24 5.3 Recommended Interventions ...... 27

1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Kajiado County covers nearly 21,900 km2 and has a population of 1,117840 according to the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census (KNBS, 2019). The county is divided into five sub- counties namely; Kajiado North, Kajiado West, Kajiado East and Kajiado Central and Kajiado South. The livelihood zones and their proportions are shown in Figure 1. Pastoralism is the dominant (52 percent) livelihood especially for the Formal local community and is practised in all Employment the sub-counties. Other forms of 31% livelihoods in the county include Pastoral 52% formal employment (31 percent), Agro-pastoral (12 percent) and Mixed Agro- pastoral Mixed Farming (five percent) especially in 12% Farming 5% Kajiado South and Kajiado North Sub-counties. Pastoral households Figure 1: percent of households by livelihoods mainly depend on the sale of livestock and livestock products such as milk to get their income while households in Mixed Farming earn their income through the sale of foodstuffs and livestock products. Casual labour is also emerging as a source of income for some households especially in urban areas and where irrigated agriculture is practised. 1.2 Methodology and Approach The main objective of the 2020 Short Rains assessment was to conduct an objective, evidence- based and transparent food security situation analysis following the Short Rains Season of 2020, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for response. The assessment that was carried out between the 18th and 22nd of January 2021 used both quantitative and qualitative approaches with both secondary and primary data. The sectors provided secondary data by filling in sectoral checklists. This information was validated/triangulated through field observations, community focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informants interviews (KIIs). During the field visit, the assessment team conducted community and market interviews in Ewaso Ngiro, Magadi, Naseriani, Olkiramatian and Ngurumani (Kajiado North/ West), Mashuru (Kajiado East), Kimana, Entarara and Loitoktok (Kajiado South). The sectoral technical members at the County level provided technical reports for reference. Other sources of data included drought early warning bulletins from the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Analysis of the data included examining the trends of various indicators, the convergence of evidence and technical consensus on the explanation of divergences.

2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performances The onset of 2020 October – November – December (OND) rains was about a month late coming around in the second dekad of November. The normal onset of the OND rains in the county is the second dekad of October. The spatial distribution of the rains in the county as a percentage of the normal rains is as shown in Figure 2. Kajiado West Sub-county, the Western part of Kaiado East Sub-county and the Northern part of Kajiado Central Sub-county received between 76 percent and 90 percent of normal rains. The eastern side part of the county got between 91 percent and 110 percent of the normal rains. Temporal distribution was poor and erratic. The cessation was early in the second dekad of December as opposed to the third dekad of Figure 2: Spatial distribution of OND 2020 rainfall the same month. It was worthwhile noting that the county especially the Central Sub-county received some substation off-season rains towards the end of December 2020 and in early January 2021. 2.2 Insecurity/Conflict Communities bordering game reserves in Entonet/Lenkism, Olongulului and Matapato South Wards reported intrusion of wildlife such as wild beasts, elephants, giraffes, zebras and antelopes as one of the factors limiting access to pasture and browse for their livestock, especially during the dry period. Destruction of crops by these wild animals was also reported by crop farming communities mainly in Kimana, Rombo and Kuku wards. 2.3 COVID-19 COVID-19 has greatly affected service delivery, especially in the health sector. Visits to health facilities reduced due to fear of contracting the virus. Other platforms for service delivery such as health outreaches and households visits by Community Health Volunteers (CHVs) were suspended as one of the containment measures. The individuals who lost their livelihoods especially casual labour have not yet recovered. It is estimated that about 15,000 people especially those working in flower farms and Boda Boda operators lost their jobs. On the other hand, diarrhoea prevalence reduced probably due to improved hand hygiene and hand sanitation practices carried out as part of the COVID-19 prevention measures. Prices of livestock went up as the number of livestock traded reduced due to travel ban. This increase in livestock prices was a positive effect on pastoralists. 2.4 Other Shocks and Hazards Livestock diseases continue to play a key role in food security in the County as they affect livestock productivity. Common livestock diseases in the county include Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Lumpy

Skin Disease (LSD) and Heartwater (sheep and goats). Pastoral central (Kajiado Central) and Pastoral south (Kajiado South) are the most affected areas. Crop pest and diseases also limit crop production with maize farms being infested by the Fall Army Worm (FAW). The Mixed farming zones of Loitokitok were the most affected by the FAW. There was about 300 ha of maize and beans (intercropped) in Mtapato North and Matapato South Wards where there was a total crop failure 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop Production Maize beans and Irish potatoes are the main crops widely grown during the short rains season. The season is considered important in the county as it is the main growing season in Kajiado South Sub-county which happens to be the county’s breadbasket. Under normal circumstances, the harvested crop is enough to cushion the farmers for a period of at least three months in other sub- counties as well. Table 1 and Table 2 show the acreages and production of the three major food crops grown under rainfed and irrigated crop farming respectively as compared to the long term averages. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Crop Area planted Long term average 2020 short rains LTA production during 2020 (LTA) area planted season during the short short rains during the short rains production rains season (90 season (Ha) season (Ha) (90 kg bags) kg bags) Maize 22,850 25,625 944,440 1,056,800 Beans 23,945 25,135 235,075 309,200 Irish Potatoes 460 410 21,500 22,800

In both Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming zones, acreage under food crops decreased, with maize and beans output expected to drop significantly. The area under maize production declined by 11 percent when compared to LTA, as more farmers preferred to cultivate other crops of higher returns (Table 1). The projected yields are also expected to decrease by 11 percent as a result of the late onset and insufficiency of the short rains. The area under beans production decreased by five percent of the LTA and production is expected to decline significantly by up to 24 percent. The decline in the area under beans and the expected yields are attributed to late and insufficient precipitation. In Kiwanja Ndege and Ngama areas (Kuku Ward), Sompet and Ndarogena (Kuku/Kimana Wards) and Njoro of Entonet ward in Kajiado South, Maparasha, Ilmarba (Matapato north), Namanga, Kumpa, Oldonyo Orok, Meto (Matapato South), Enkorika, Sajiloni, Oloontulgum, (Dalalekutuk Ward), Oloosuyian, Olosukuta, Olkiroriti (Ildamat), Imaroro and Kenyewa Poka wards of Kajiado East Sub-county the beans’ yield was between 0.5 bags per acre and 1.5 bags per acre instead of the normal average of 4 bags per acre. The area under Irish Potatoes increased by 12 percent of the LTA as a result of farmers taking advantage of the good returns from Irish Potatoes as compared to both maize and beans. The yields from Irish Potatoes are projected to decrease slightly by six percent as a result of poor distribution

4 of the short rains and increase in pests and diseases especially fungal diseases in Kuku and Entonet wards in Kajiado South.

Table 2: Irrigated crop production Crop Area planted Long term average 2020 short rains LTA production during 2020 (LTA) area planted season during the short short rains during the short rains production rains season (90 season (Ha) season (Ha) (90 kg bags/MT) kg bags/MT) Tomatoes 2,490 1,725 26,515 MT 16,157 MT Maize 1,050 1,088 27,000 bags 20,672 bags Cabbages 120 90 620 MT 500 MT The area under Tomatoes increased by 44 percent as a result of good returns, and the yields are projected to increase by 64 percent of the long term average (Table 2). This increase in price and production is as a result of the use of quality farm inputs (seeds and Agrochemicals) and the good prevailing market prices. The area under Maize production in irrigation zones decreased by 3.5 percent of the long term average but production is expected to increase by 30 percent as a result of adequate water for irrigation, increase in yield per unit area and decrease in pest infestation. The area under Cabbage production increased by 33 percent, as farmers took advantage of the good returns. There is an expected increase in the yields for Cabbage by 24 percent. 3.1.2 Cereals Stock Maize stocks held by various players are shown in Table 3. Households and Traders hold 39 percent and 57 percent of the long term average of maize stocks respectively. The maize stocks held by households was low as food consumption increased drastically due to the COVID-19 pandemic control measures, such as stay at home and school closures. This trend replicates across all the 3 livelihood zones Table 3: Maize stocks Maize stocks held by Quantities of maize held Long Term Average quantities held (90- (90-kg bags) kg bags) at a similar time of the year Households 10,215 26,190 Traders 13,990 24,170 Millers 5,000 10,290 NCPB 0 0 Total 29,205 60,650 Other factors contributing to low stocks held by households were lack of proper storage facilities and fear of post-harvest pest infestation in all the three livelihood zones. Traders had minimal stocks which they received from households who were willing to sell and thus most of their stocks came from outside sources such as the North Rift and Tanzania. Food stocks held by different players are expected to improve once the harvesting season commences by end of March. The current stocks held by households can last up to 3 weeks and 1 week in Mixed and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones respectively. When households hold normal stocks, they last up to 3 months in Mixed Farming Livelihood zones, 2 months in Agro-pastoral and 1 month in pastoral zones. Pastoral livelihood zones will continue to depend wholly on markets for their supplies.

3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species kept in the county are cattle, sheep and goats where the dominant breeds are the Zebu, indigenous sheep and goats. Livestock and livestock products contribute 70, 48 and 30 percent cash income for households in Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. Sale of livestock and livestock products enables households to acquire other food commodities such as maize, beans, wheat flour and to cater for other household needs. Milk from livestock such as cow and goats is consumed as a regular diet. Pasture and Browse The pasture and browse condition was fair in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones and good in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone compared to good normally across all the livelihood zones. The fair condition of pasture and browse is attributed to insufficient rainfall received during the short rains in most parts of the county resulting in inadequate regeneration of pasture and browse. The pasture is expected to last for the next one and half months in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones compared to the normal of 2-3 months while in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone it is expected to last 3 months which is normal (Table 4). Insufficient rainfall received during the short rains has resulted in the deterioration of pastures in most parts of the county especially in Kitengela, Kaputie North and Loosirikon/ Sholinke wards (Kajiado East), Mbirikani, Olgulului and Lenkism (Kajiado South), Matapato North and South (Kajiado Central) and Magadi, Mosiro, Euwaso and Ilodokilani in Kajiado West. The main factors limiting access to pastures and browse were invasive weeds (Ipomoea) in Purko, Matapato North and South (Kajiado Central), Imaroro, Kenyewa/Poka (Kajiado East) and parts of Imbirikani and Entonet/Lenkism (Kajiado South); Prosopis species (Mathenge) in Magadi Ward, parts of Loodokilani Ward (Kajiado West). Tsetse fly infestation has also been witnessed in Rombo, Kuku, Imbirikani/Esilenkei and Lenkism (Kajiado South), Magadi, Mosiro (Kajiado West) and Kenyewa Poka (Kajiado East). The areas prone to human/wildlife/ livestock conflict are Entonet/Lenkism, Imbirikani (Kajiado South) and Emotoroki, Mailua, Maparasha and Meto (Kajiado Central). Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture Browse Liveliho Condition How long to Factors Condition How long to last Factors od zone last (Months) Limiting (Months) Limiting access access Curre Norma Curren Norma Current Normal Current Normal nt l t l Pastoral Fair Good 1.5 2-3 Invasive Fair Good 2 4 Human-wildlife species, conflicts, and human- invasive species wildlife eg Ipomea conflicts, and Mathenge, Tsetse fly Tsetse fly Agro Fair Good 1.5 2-3 Invasive Fair Good 2 4 Invasive species pastoral species (Ipomea) Mixed Good Good 3 3-4 None Good Good 4 4 None Farming

Pasture conservation status

Most pasture is conserved by individual farmers and some few institutions such as Masai Rural Training Centre (MRTC) in Isinya, Agricultural Training Centre (ATC) in Ngong, and Demo farm in Kajiado Central (which has 4000 bales currently). Table 5 shows baled hay by sub-Counties Table 5: Baled hay by sub-Counties Sub County No. of Storage No. of Average Average Comments – E.g. Hay Capacity Bales Weight per price per percentage held by Stores (Total currently bale (in bale farmers and other number of being Kgs) (Kshs.) Institutions bales) held Kajiado East 32 46000 20000 12 200 80 Percent by farmers & 20 percent by MRTC Kajiado 81 50000 12000 12 250 65 percent by North farmers, 35 percent by ATC Kajiado West 250 200000 30000 14 200 100 percent percent by farmers Kajiado 25 75000 25000 12 300 80 Percent by farmers Central 20 percent by demo farm Kajiado 120 80000 28000 12-15 250 100 percent by South farmers Total 476 405,000 95,000 - - The county has 476 hay stores with a storage capacity of 405,000 bales of hay but currently, they hold 95,000 bales. The weight per bale ranged between 12 and 15 kilograms and was currently being sold at between Kshs200 and Ksh300 per bale across the county. Most of the hay conservation is done by individual farmers (65 – 80 percent) while institutions such as MRTC and Ngong ATC conserve about 20 – 35 percent of the pastures. The main factors limiting pasture conservation and utilization across the county are poor/inadequate pasture storage facilities that lead to spoilage of conserved pasture/hay and which is a major limiting factor of its utilization. Besides, 400 acres of standing hay in ATC Kajiado Central was lost to fire in November 2020. Some of the groups involved in commercial grass seed production include Siana and Osiram women groups in Kajiado South. In Mixed Farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, maize stalks/stovers and bean chaff are utilized to supplement livestock feeds. Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The livestock body condition of cattle, sheep and goats was fair in both Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones compared to good normally and good in the Mixed Farming livelihood zones (Table 6). The fair livestock body condition is attributed to the poor short rains season in the county which has a late onset and ceased early resulting in inadequate regeneration of pasture and browse. Poor livestock body conditions led to low prices in the market and hence poor lifestyles of most households who depend on livestock.

Table 6: Livestock body condition Livelihood zone Cattle Sheep Goat Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal

Agro-pastoral Fair Good fair Good Fair Good Pastoral Fair Good Fair Good Good Good Mixed Farming Good Good Good Good Good Good With the ongoing short showers in January 2021, the livestock body condition is expected to improve slightly in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones especially in Magadi in Kajiado West. On the contrary, in areas such as Euwaso Ookidong and Mosiro in Kajiado West, Olgulului Mbirikani in Kajiado South, Matapato in Kajiado Central and Sholinke in Kajiado East the livestock body condition is expected to worsen due to the deterioration of pastures/browse and increase of trekking distance to water sources. Tropical livestock units (TLUs) The Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) for poor households in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones declined by 50 and 40 percent respectively compared to normal whereas the TLUs remained the same in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone. (Table 7). Medium income households in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones experienced a reduction of 20 and 16.6 percent of TLUs respectively compared to normal. The reduction of TLUs was attributed to the late onset and early cessation of short rains which affected the availability of pasture/browse and previous droughts where farmers lost a significant number of livestock. The lower TLUs imply that food security in a majority of the households is at risk. Table 7: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households

Current Normal Current Normal Agro-pastoral 4 5 8 10 Pastoral 6 8 10 12 Mixed Farming 2 2 4 4 Note: Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) a convenient method for quantifying a wide range of different livestock types and sizes in a standardized manner. (The standard used for one TLU is one cattle with a bodyweight of 250 kg

Birth rate Birth rates were normal across all livelihood zones of the county. Milk Production and Consumption Milk production in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zone declined by 25 and 20 percent respectively and remained stable in the Mixed Farming livelihood when compared to LTA (Table 8). Consequently, milk consumption remained stable across Mixed Farming and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones but declined in Pastoral zones due to increase in prices e.g. in Ngurumani in Kajiado West, 1 litre of milk was selling at between Ksh50 and Ksh90. Milk prices in Pastoral livelihood zones ranged from Ksh50 to Ksh90 per litre compared to LTA of Ksh50 but remained the same as the LTA of Ksh50 in the Agro-pastoral and Mixed Farming zones. The decline in milk production due to shortage of pasture/browse and migration of cattle in search of water and pasture.

Measures to curb COVID-19 did not have any effect on milk production and consumption at the household level. Table 8: Milk Availability and Consumption zone Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk consumption Prices (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household (Litres) per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed Farming 10 10 3 3 50 50 Agro pastoral 4 5 2 2 50 50 Pastoral 3 4 1.5 2 50-90 50 Migration The county recorded internal livestock migration which was normal at this time of the year. 70 percent of cattle had migrated from Pastoral to Agro-pastoral and Mixed Farming livelihood zones and other areas where slight showers had been experienced. Cattle from Magadi, Euwaso and Olkiramatian areas of Kajiado West had migrated to Ngurumani hills of Kajiado West. Cattle from Olgulului in Kajiado South had migrated to Mashenani in Kajiado South. The migration of livestock was attributed to depressed short rains in most parts of the county that resulted in the poor availability of pasture, browse and water. The migration situation is expected to worsen in the next three months in Pastoral and some parts of Agro-pastoral livelihood zones where migration is expected to continue with more and more cattle being moved out in search of pastures and water even further to the neighbouring country of Tanzania. Measures to curb COVID-19 have not impacted on livestock migration Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The endemic livestock diseases reported in the county were Food and Mouth Disease (FMD), Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), PPR, Brucellosis, Contagious Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia (CBPP), Anaplasmosis, Enterotoxemia and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). There was no disease outbreak reported in the county. Measures taken to control the diseases were sample collection for diagnosis and provision of extension messages. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak/control measures, most of the financial resources had been reallocated to the mitigation of COVID-19 therefore leaving no to little resources for animal disease control. Disease control strategy meetings were curtailed thereby affecting the coordination of disease control activities. Curfews imposed in response to COVID-19 affected disease control such as vaccination activities. Livestock mortality rates were within normal ranges despite CCPP being a major cause of death among small stock especially goats. Water for Livestock The current sources of water for livestock were boreholes, water pans, rivers and shallow wells which were the normal sources for the time of the year. The current return distances from grazing area to watering points was 4-6 kilometres for the Pastoral livelihood zone and 4-8 kilometres for the Agro-pastoral livelihood zone which slightly increased by 20 percent compared to the normal (Table 9). Water sources in both livelihood zones are expected to last for one and a half months as compared to a normal of three months. This is as a result of depressed short rains which resulted in minimal recharge of water sources across the county. Watering was daily for all livestock species across the livelihood zones except in isolated areas of Magadi in Kajiado West where watering was 4 days in a week since the only river available (Kamukuru) was 14 kilometres away. The showers in the month of January 2021 improved livestock water availability in some parts of the county. There was no impact of COVID-19 on access to water for livestock.

Table 9: Water for livestock Livelihood zone Sources Expected duration Watering frequency Average return to last (months) (Cattle, sheep and distances (km) goats) Current Normal Normal Current Normal Current Normal current Pastoral Water pans, Rivers, 5 4-6 1.5 3 Daily for Daily for rivers, water-pans, shoats and shoats and boreholes, boreholes cattle cattle piped and dams water, Water canals Agro - Boreholes, Rivers, 5 4-8 1.5 3 Daily for Daily for pastoral water pans, water-pans, shoats and shoats and rivers boreholes cattle cattle and dams Mixed Water Water 1 1 3 3 Daily for Daily for Farming canals, canals, shoats and shoats and piped piped cattle cattle Water water

3.1.4 Impact on Availability Following the poor performance of the 2020 short rains season, crop yields were projected to be below the long term average. This implies household food stock deplete earlier than the usual time. In a normal situation, Agro-pastoral and Mixed Farming households would have food stocks that last from one season to the other. Supply of foodstuff especially cereals from the local areas will be lower than normal. This is likely to push prices of foodstuff higher as the county relies on food supply from other parts of the country. On the other hand, with the current off-season rains, livestock are likely to maintain reasonably fair body condition. This would translate to near-normal terms of trade. Due to the near-normal terms of trade, it is expected that for the next two to three months, pastoralists will be able to obtain food stock from the markets. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Markets In the Pastoral livelihood zone, Kimana, Shompole, Emali and Ilbisil are the major markets for both livestock and foodstuffs. Namanga, Mashuru, Kajiado, Loitokitok, Ngong, Kitengela, Kiserian and Soko Mjinga in Ongata Rongai are mainly for foodstuffs. Rombo and Kinama markets are for both livestock and foodstuffs and serve both Pastoral and Mixed Farming zones. Maize, beans, millet, sorghum, sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes and rice were the main foodstuffs supplied to these markets. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep. Foodstuffs supplies were mainly from the neighbouring Counties such as Kiambu, Nakuru and Makueni. Another notable source of foodstuff was the Republic of Tanzania. Foodstuff prices were lower in Mixed Farming livelihood zones compared to Pastoral Livelihood zones. For instance, a kilogram of maize was selling at Ksh. 35 in Kimana (Mixed Farming) and Ksh. 50 in Ewuaso Kedong (Pastoral). Prices of livestock also varied across the livelihood zones.

The assessment noted a reduction of trade volumes especially for maize and beans by mid-January this year compared to December, the previous year. One reason cited for the reduction of volumes traded for beans was low production from the 2020 Short Rains. For maize, stocks from 2020 Long Rains were now depleted and the local farmers had yet to harvest from the 2020 Short Rains. Demand for foodstuffs had gone down as most households that depend on markets had reduced their market expenses to cater for other competing priorities such as education for their children. Volumes of livestock traded in early January were high as households sold livestock to raise school fees. The volume of foodstuffs traded for January to March 2021 is likely to remain stable but slightly below the long term average. The production gap from rain-fed cropping was likely to be filled by irrigated crop production during that time. During the same period, the number of livestock supply to the market was likely to fluctuate from time to time but within reasonable ranges depending on both external demand and households needs such as money for school fees. Market Prices Maize price The average maize price in the county during the OND period was slightly above the average price for the past five years. In December, a kilogram of maize was selling at an average price of Ksh55 compared to Ksh46 same month last year (Figure 3). In Mixed Farming zones of Loitokitok, a kilogram of maize was selling at Ksh35 while in Pastoral areas of Kajiado West such as Kamukuru a kilogram of maize was selling at Ksh65. Food price was cheaper in the southern part of the county given it is adjacent to Figure 3: Maize prices the Mixed Farming zone and is accessible to traders as opposed to the Pastoral areas that rely heavily on markets and have poor road accessibility. The price of maize was expected to continue increasing in the coming months until next harvest. Goat price Goat prices recorded a steady increase and are above the previous five year’s average since May this 2020. By January 2021, a medium-size goat was selling at Ksh. 6,500 compared to Ksh. 4,200 in May (Figure 4). The increase in goat price was 97 percent above the LTA. The increase in prices was occasioned by the prevalent good body Figure 4: Goat prices

11 condition. Significant variation in prices of goats across the county was noted with the lower price of Ksh. 5,300 in Pastoral livelihood zone (Mbirikani) and higher price of Ksh. 7,600 in Mixed Farming livelihood zone (Rombo). With current off-season rains, goats are likely to maintain good body condition and consequently, goat prices are likely to be stable from February to April 2021. 3.2.2 Terms of Trade (ToT) The ToT in January 2021 was Average (2016-2020) 2020 2021 118 kilograms which implied 140 that for every sale of a medium sized goat the pastoralists could 120 be able to purchase 118 100 kilograms of maize (Figure 5). In January 2021, the ToT was 80 above the LTA by 80 percent. 60 The increase in the ToT was due to a higher proportion of the 40 increase in goats prices ofKg maize/medium goat 20 compared to the price of maize 0 during the period. Mixed Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Farming zones had higher ToT compared to other zones. For Figure 5: Terms of Trade compared with LTA instance, in December 2020, 97 kilograms of maize were exchanged with a medium-size goat in the Pastoral zone. During the same month, a medium-size goat was exchanged for 123 kilograms in Mixed Farming livelihood zones. The ToT is likely to decline from February through April as the price of foodstuffs is likely to increase by a higher proportion as compared to prices of livestock. 3.2.3 Income Sources The major income source for Pastoral households was the sale of livestock and livestock products such as milk. Mixed Farming households earned their income through the sale of farm produce. Casual labour is strongly emerging as a source of household income in urban and in mixed farming zones. 3.2.4 Water Availability and Access Major water sources Table 10 provide a summary of the main water sources and their status. The major sources of water for both livestock and human consumption are boreholes, pans/dams, shallow wells and springs. Two perennial rivers, Nolturesh and Ewaso Nyiro contribute to water availability in the county. Boreholes form the main sources in pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Springs and shallow wells are predominant in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. During the season, pans, dams and shallow wells recharged very minimally at between five to 10 percent while boreholes were recharged at 50 percent as the rains received were below average and spatial distribution was very poor. This was experienced in all the livelihood zones. Currently, open water sources are about 20 percent full. The current volume of water in pans/dams is expected to last for a period of 1-2 months in pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Operational boreholes are expected to last throughout the year. The proportion of households accessing protected water sources is approximately 55 and 70 percent for rural and urban areas respectively. However, some

12 parts of the County have continued to receive off-season rains in the month of January 2021 which has impacted positively on the water supply situation. Seasonal rivers, springs pans and ponds have been recharged and the water is available to the users. Table 10: Water Sources across Livelihoods Locality of No. of No. of Percent Ward/ Major Normal Non- Normal Current Projected Recharge Livelihoo Water Duration Operationa Operat Operationa Duration d by the d zone Source of water l Water ional l Sources Rains Sources Ochorroibor , Oltepesi, 12 Boreholes 190 185 Permanent 50 Enkolili, Months Ilmakurrie, Pastoral Ololua 12 Springs 43 43 6 Months 10 Months Water Pans 80 1 Month 2 Months 5 Elerai, Boreholes 74 72 Permanent All year 50 Sompet Agro- Springs 16 16 6 Months 6 months 10 pastoral 1 to 2 Water Pans 19 Less than 10 3 Months 10 Months Boreholes 40 36 Permanent All year 50 Olepolos Mixed Springs 253 253 4 Months 4 months 20 Farming Water Pans 5 5 2-3 Months 3 Months 5 Shallow wells 43 43 All year All year 5 Parameters of water access including distance to and from water points, cost and waiting time are summarized in Table 11. Table 11: Water for Domestic Use Livelihood Return Distance Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water zone to Water for Source (Ksh. Per Water Source Consumption Domestic Use 20litres) (Minutes) (Litres/person/day) (Km) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 5 – 10 5 - 10 3 -10 3 -10 30-40 30-40 10 -20 10-15 Agro-pastoral 0.5 – 5 0.5 -5 3 – 5 3-5 30-40 30-40 15 - 20 15-20 Mixed 0.5 – 5 0.5 - 5 3 -5 3--5 5- 10 5-10 15-20 15-20 Farming

Distance to water sources and waiting time Access to water points has had recorded increase distances to water sources across all livelihood zones. Return distances averaged 10 kilometres in the pastoral and 1 kilometre in Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. The increased distances are attributed to drying up of water pools and pans within the proximity of most homesteads and settlements as a result of the depressed 2020 short rains experienced in the county. Majority of the seasonal rivers have dried up leaving livestock and households to walk longer distances in search of water. Boreholes have remained operational though not optimally due to frequent breakdowns as a result of overworking. Waiting time at watering sources has remained stable but is expected to rise as more households are turning up for water due to drying up of river beds and water pools across all livelihood zones. Water Consumption and Cost Water consumption rates have remained the same in Agro-pastoral and Mixed Farming livelihood zones but declined from 10-20 litres/person/day to 10-15 litres/person/day in Pastoral livelihood zones when compared to normal of 10 – 20 litres/person/day. The price of water ranged from between Ksh. 3 to Ksh. 10 per 20-Litre Jerrican across all the livelihood zones for those who had no other alternative sources. This is due to decreased recharge levels in rivers and pans/dams. 3.2.5 Food Consumption Food Consumption Score Figure 6 shows the food consumption score by Acceptable Bordeline Poor livelihood zones between 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.4% 1.8% 5.1% 1.5% 3.6% October 2020 and January 90% 2021. The proportion of 80% 39.4% pastoral households that had 39.8% 49.6% 40.5% food consumption score 70% below 35 (poor and 60% borderline combined) 50% 100.0% 100.0% 96.6% 98.2% continually increased from 40% 44.9 percent in October 2020 30% 55.1% 59.1% 55.9% to 50.5 percent in December 49.6% but dropped to 44.1 percent in 20% January 2021. This suggests 10% possible stability, in dietary 0% diversity and or frequency of Oct, 2020 Nov, 2020 Dec, 2020 Jan, 2021 Oct, 2020 Nov, 2020 Dec, 2020 Jan, 2021 consumption of certain food Agro-pastoral Pastoral groups during the period Figure 6: Food Consumption Trends except for December. Agro-pastoral households are consuming a variety of food items compared to Pastoral households. In January 2021, the proportion of Pastoral households that fell under acceptable and borderline food consumption score were 55.9 percent and 40.5 percent respectively. All Agro-pastoral households had food consumption score of 98.2 percent under acceptable food consumption category. COVID-19 also reduced the intake of a diversified diet. Pastoral households consumed mainly milk supplemented with maize and beans.

Milk Consumption The household daily milk consumption was nearly the same at 2.6 litres in November to 2.3 litres in December 2020. Places like Matapato south and Mosiro, household milk consumption was negligible after migration of cattle. 3.2.6 Coping Strategy (CSI)

The coping strategy index 10 indicates the level of stress 9 households go through to get 8 food or money to buy food. 7 Pastoral households have a 6 higher coping index 5 8.7 8.3 compared to Agro-pastoral 4 3 6.6 6.8 households. In January 2 3.3 3.7 3.5 3.2 2021, the Coping Strategy 1 Index was 8.3 compared to 0 8.7 in December 2020 in the Oct, 2020 Nov, 2020 Dec, 2020 Jan, 2021 Pastoral Livelihood zone. In Pastoral ivelihood Agro-pastoral Livelihood Agro Pastoral Livelihood the CSI was 3.2 in January 2021 compared to 3.5 in Figure 7: Coping Strategy Index Trends December 2020. Therefore, in the last four months, Pastoral households engaged in more stressful ways to get food or money to buy food than Agro-pastoral households (Figure 7). The main coping mechanisms employed by households during by January 2021 was eating less preferred food. Although the prices of livestock went up, sales were fewer than normal and most households still strained to get their preferred food. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity and mortality patterns According to the Kenya County Health Information System 70,000 (DHIS) data set, the most 60,000 50,000 common ailments among 40,000 children under five were Upper 30,000 62,446 Track Respiratory Infection 55,297 20,000 36,125 (URTI), Diarrhea and Malaria. 10,000 16,544 919 545

The prevalence of URTI, 0 Numbercases of Diarrhea and Malaria decreased Upper Respiratory Diarrhoea Malaria drastically by 11.4 percent, 54.2 Tranct Infection (URTI) percent and 40.7 percent respectively in July – December July - Dec 2019 July - Dec 2020 2020 compared to the same Figure 8: Morbidity trends of children under 5 years period in 2019 as illustrated in Figure 8. From community interviews, the majority of the children under five were majorly affected by the common cold. The Morbidity pattern for under 5 was the same across the livelihood

15 zones. The reduction in prevalence in diarrhoea is attributed to the increase in hand hygiene and hand sanitation practices carried out as part of the COVID-19 prevention measures as a result of the restriction of movement reducing access to health facilities and fear of contracting COVID-19 at health centres which led to the decreased health facilities attendance. 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation The proportion of children reported to be fully immunized in the county between July and December 2020 was 77.5 percent compared to 55.7 percent in the same period in 2019 (DHIS) reflecting a 39.1 percent increase. Vitamin A coverage for children aged 6-11 months increased from 121 percent in Jul - Dec 2019 to 125 percent in Jul-Dec 2020. For Children aged 12-59 months, Vitamin A coverage decreased from 51 percent in Jul - Dec 2019 to 37 percent in Jul-Dec 2020 (Figure 9). The decrease in Vitamin A supplementation was attributed to Figure 9: Vitamin A supplementation COVID-19 containment measures such as restrictions on movement. Furthermore, facilities were also perceived as more risky places for the disease. The decline in immunization and Vitamin A supplementation is also associated with the suspension of some strategies used to reach out to children such as the Malezi Bora and the health workers strike in December 2020. 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity From community and key informants’ interviews, households were consuming three meals a day. Although this was normal at this time of the year, the dietary diversity was shrinking with households consuming mainly foods less rich in proteins and carbohydrates such as beans, maize and to some extent milk, especially for small children. In January 2021, the proportion of children under the risk of malnutrition was 1.6 percent which was an increase of 33.3 when compared to July 2020. The decline in nutrition was attributed to decreased access to food due to the depressed rains. The household daily milk consumption also had declined from 2.6 litres in November to 2.3 litres in January 2020 Figure 10: Proportion of children at risk of as a result of the migration of cattle as malnutrition reported in NDMA bulletin for Kajiado

16 county in January 2021. The Pastoral livelihood zone especially Mosiro, Ewuaso, Kuku, Magadi, Lenkism and Mbirikani wards remain hotspot areas for malnutrition among children 3.3.4 Health and Nutrition Sector in COVID-19 Context Access to health facilities was affected by COVID-19 movement restrictions. The demand for health services dropped due to fear by the community of contracting COVID-19 at the health facilities. Secondly, public gatherings were restricted during the period. Health outreach services and those services offered by CHVs including household visits came to a halt. During this COVID- 19 period, most of the facilities ran out of supplies for managing acute malnutrition such as plump nuts, fortified blended flour and corn-soy blended flour. 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community-level actions Health education was conducted in the community and at health centres and Information, Education and Communication(IEC) materials were distributed to the community and at the health centres. There were Training of Trainers on COVID-19, continuous medical education in health facilities, sharing of information through online platforms like zoom and on the job training and mentorship about issues of COVID-19. Health workers have been trained on the COVID-19 sample collection and case management and daily review of health workers needs and deployment done as per the identified needs. The county carried out sensitization of health workers such as the CHVs and masks, sanitisers and handwashing facilities were distributed to health centres, public markets and other strategic places. Tents for screening were placed in various locations within the county 3.3.6 Coordination and Leadership in COVID-19 Pandemic Preparedness and Response Main coordination was done at the governors and commissioner’s office with a WhatsApp group formed at county and sub-county levels with the involvement of partners to ensure effective communication and sharing of information on matters of COVID-19. A rapid response team was also formed at the county and sub-county level. Commodity supply for PPEs was carried out at the health facility level to health workers consistently and with the collaboration of the contracted suppliers, the county government and other partners. Public health facilities were equipped with oxygen cylinders, for instance, Kitengela Sub-county Hospital which was provided with piped oxygen while in Kajiado Referral Hospital, liquid and piped oxygen were installed in collaboration between the BOC gases and the county government. In both public and private hospitals, a total of 500 isolation beds and 27 ICU beds were set up with the county also embracing home-based care for asymptomatic patients. Besides, the county has set up Olekasasi Health Centre as an isolation/ Clinical Teaching Units (CTUs) for health care workers. Sample collection was carried out in the sub-counties with the county having one testing laboratory at Namanga /East Africa Laboratory and also a partnership with AMREF in sample testing for health care workers and critical patients in the hospitals. 3.3.7 Sanitation and Hygiene The main sources of water for domestic use included boreholes, piped water and earth dams. The main water storage at the household is the Jerrican. About 27.8 percent of the households drew water from protected sources while 30.6 percent treated drinking water by either boiling (65.8 percent), chemicals (33.2 percent) or filtering (1.1 percent).

Latrine coverage is highest in Kajiado East and North while more than half of the population in the other 3 sub-counties relieve themselves in the bush. Hygiene and sanitation practices improved during the COVID-19 period due to the provision of handwashing facilities at market places and in most of the households. The least latrine coverage was reported in Kajiado West Sub-county at 15 percent. 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 12 shows the key indicators of food security for the previous and current seasons. Table 12: Food security trends in xxx County Indicator Long rains assessment, July Short rains assessment, January 2021 2020 (current) Percentage of maize stocks 69 percent of LTA 35 percent of LTA held by households (agro- pastoral) Percentage of maize stocks 86 percent of LTA 48.2 percent of LTA held by households (agro- pastoral) Livestock body condition Cattle: Fair in pastoral, fair to Cattle: Fair in pastoral and Agro-pastoral, good in mixed and agro- good in mixed pastoral Sheep: Fair in pastoral and Agro-pastoral, Sheep and goats: Good across good in mixed all livelihoods Goats: Fair agro-pastoral, good in pastoral and mixed Water consumption (litres Pastoral: 10 – 15 Pastoral: 10 – 15 per person per day) Agro-pastoral: 15 – 20 Agro-pastoral: 15 – 20 Mixed: 15 – 20 Mixed: 15 - 20 Price of maize (per kg) Ksh. 50 Ksh. 55 Return distance to water Pastoral: 5 – 10 km Pastoral: 5 – 10 km sources Agro-pastoral: 0.5 – 5 km Agro-pastoral: 0.5 – 5 km Mixed: 0.5 – 5 km Mixed: 0.5 – 5 km Terms of trade (pastoral 114/ medium size goat 113/ medium size goat zone) Coping strategy index 5.87 7.13 Food consumption score Acceptable: 81.2 percent Acceptable: 81.2 percent Borderline: 15.6 percent Borderline: 15.6 percent Poor: 2.2 percent Poor: 2.2 percent

3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Kajiado County has 461 public primary and 94 public secondary schools. The enrolment in ECDE, Primary and Secondary were stable across the county in Term 1 (Table 13). All levels had stable participation by all gender, but boys’ participation was slightly higher than that of girls.

Table 13: Enrolment Enrollment in public schools for the current and previous term. Term II 2021(current) Term I 2020 (previous) Comments (reasons Enrolment № Boys № Girls Total № Boys № Girls Total for increase or decrease ECD 15,621 14,669 30,290 19756 19,206 38,962 Migration, transfer to private schools Primary 74,174 70,581 144,755 76,159 71,105 147,264 Pregnancy, emigration, Secondary 17,002 15,019 32,021 17,515 15,703 33,218 Pregnancy, transfers, early marriages Generally, the enrolment was lower in Term II - 2021 compared to Term I- 2020 across all the levels. In ECDE, the enrolment of boys and girls dropped by 20.9 percent and 23.6 percent respectively. In Primary, boys’ enrolment dropped by 2.6 percent while girls’ enrolment dropped by 0.736 percent. In secondary schools, boys’ enrolment dropped by 2.92 percent and girls’ enrolment dropped by 4.35 percent. The decrease in enrolment was attributed to COVID-19 effects. In ECDE, most parents who had lost jobs in urban areas and large agricultural farms especially in Isinya relocated to counties of origin. Some pupils had not reported for fear of contradicting COVID-19. Girls’ enrolment in primary and secondary schools was affected by teenage pregnancy, early marriage, transfers as a result of parents’ relocation and lack of school fees. Boys were yet to report due to child labour, motorbike riding (Bodaboda), circumcision/”moranism” and general hardships as a result of COVID-19 impacts. 3.5.2 Effects of COVID -19 on Schools The effect of COVID-19 is summarized in Table 14. As expected, COVID-19 reduced enrollment across ECD, Primary and Secondary schools across the county. Table 14: Effect of COVID-19 on schools Livelihood zone Estimated percentage of Learning Food storage Cases of child abuse during continuity (e-learning by KICD) during pro-longed closure during pro-longed closure prolonged closure ECD Primary Secondary Boys Girls CENTRAL(Past 0-20 0-20 0-20 Good None None oral) Kajido North 0-20 20-40 40-60 N/A 0 52 (Mixed pregnancy Farming) Mixed Farming 0 40 30 Fair 34. child 44 labour Pregnancy cases Kajiado West 0 0 0 Poor 0 11 (Pastoral) Pregnancy cases Loitoktok 20 20 20 Poor 0 99 (Agro-pastoral) Pregnancy cases There was no infrastructure damage in schools used as quarantine centres. E-learning across all the levels of education ranged from 0-20 percent. Food storage during prolonged closure was low

19 though some schools sold food-stuffs in stores in March to minimize losses. About 500 girls had been confirmed pregnant across the county while absenteeism among boys was attributed to child labour, Boda-boda and sand businesses. E-learning uptake was generally low which was attributed to; lack of radios, smartphones, internet connectivity, electrical power at homes and TV, high cost of bundles and ignorance of existing e- learning platforms. 3.5.3 Effects of Short Rains on Schools Nine schools, 3 in Loitokitok, 3 in Kajiado Central, 1 in Kajiado North, and 2 in Mashuuru, had their toilets damaged with most recorded as having sunk. This threatened the re-opening of the schools as sanitation could be compromised. With limited resources, schools were dependent on well-wishers, the national government and the county government. Over the period, no school sheltered IDPs during the short rainy season. 3.5.4 School Feeding Programme In March 2020, only 147 primary schools had a school feeding program courtesy of MOE known as Home Grown Schools Meals (HGSM) with a total enrolment of 52,382 pupils leaving about 92,291 deserving cases. None of the other school meal feeding programs had coverage in the county. No school currently has a running school feeding program. All public primary schools which in total have an enrolment of 144,812 deserve school meals program (Table 15). Distribution of school meals to pupils while at home in times of emergencies is tricky and therefore requires wide consultation with stakeholders and piloting. Table 15: School feeding programmes Name of sub- № of schools HGSM No. of pupils not on any school county with school meals program in March 2020 meals program in March 2020 Boys Girls Boys Girls Isinya 7 1,439 1,374 3,484 3,454 Central 37 5,843 5,623 10,459 9,935 Mashuru 39 4,527 4,197 2,337 2,184 Loitoktok 22 6,596 5,861 14,011 14,215 Kajiado West 42 8,650 8,272 7,492 6,715 Kajiado North 0 0 0 10,076 7,929 Sub-Total 147 27,055 25,327 47,859 44,432 Grand Total 52,382 92,291 3.5.5 Inter-Sectoral Links A total of 295 schools across all the education levels did not have adequate functional latrines in the county, primary schools at 155, ECD 82 and secondary schools 38. All schools had handwashing facilities. However, 304 schools; 109 ECD, 145 primary and 50 secondary schools had no access to clean water (Table 16). Sanitary pads were last distributed in 2020 mainly by the government and a few NGOs targeting specific small pockets of the county. Lack of sanitary pads

20 affects girls’ education as it leads to absenteeism, drop out, poor performance, low self-esteem, teen pregnancies, and early marriages in extreme cases Table 16: Water, Sanitation and Hygiene No. of schools with an inadequate № schools with no access to safe water Name of sub-county functional latrine (i.e., Pupil toilet (functional source within 100m radius) Ratio- OR of above 1:60) ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary Kajiado Central 57 77 6 0 0 0 Loitokitok 25 25 10 45 45 45 Isinya 0 4 7 0 6 4 Mashuuru 0 0 0 34 34 0 Kajiado West 0 35 2 30 60 0 Kajiado north 0 14 13 0 0 0 Total 82 155 38 109 145 50

4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions According to the weather forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), the 2021 March –April –May 2021 Long Rains are likely to be depressed. Spatial distribution is likely to be uneven while the temporal distribution is likely to be poor. The projected yields are also likely to be below the long term average. It is assumed that the COVID-19 pandemic will stabilize at less than 5 percent positivity rate to allow businesses to operate normally. Pasture and browse conditions are expected to range from good to fair allowing livestock to maintain fair body condition up to June 2021. Maize prices are expected to decrease slightly below the current Ksh55 per kilogram by March when maize is expected to be harvested as are several other foodstuffs. 4.2 Food security Outlook March – May Based on the above assumptions, the food security situation is likely to be stable between now and April. In Mixed Farming zones, the expected yields would last not less than three months. Terms of trade for Pastoral households is also likely to be stable as livestock productivity is likely to be stable. The proportion of households whose Food Consumption Score range between 20 and 35 (Borderline) would increase slightly especially for Pastoral households. Although food is available, consumption of a variety of diets may not be a preference at this time. Milk production may increase slightly and so would be milk consumption. Malnutrition is therefore likely to be stable and below the long term average. June – August By May, pasture and browse may be fairly available and accessible. Surface water bodies may be recharged although below average and therefore enhance the existing water sources such as boreholes. Livestock body condition may therefore improve and consequently improving their productivity such as milk production thereby positively impacting milk consumption. Although foodstuff may be available in the markets as well as at the households, dietary diversity intake may not improve much over the period. With possibly depressed 2021 long rains, households are likely

21 to have a reduced preference for the consumption and or reduced frequency of the consumption of certain foods from May. 5.0 Conclusion and Interventions 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase Classification The county is classified under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification in the Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2). Livestock diseases including FMD and CCPP are a threat to livestock productivity and need close monitoring. The performance of the March-May 2021 Long Rains will also influence the outcome of food security in the remaining part of the year across the county. COVID-19 pandemic also continues to affect various sectors within the county and any new wave of the COVID-19 outbreak would negatively influence market dynamics and access to services including health services. 5.1.2 Summary of the Findings Kajiado County is largely Pastoral. Other livelihoods include Agro-pastoral, Mixed farmed waged and casual labour. Rainfall was the key driver of the food security situation in the County. Although the 2020 Short Rains were depressed in most parts of the pastoral areas, the positive cumulative effect of the other two previous good seasons was evident. Pasture condition was fair in most parts of the county. The off-season rains in the first dekad of January was a great relief to both pastoralists and farmers. Pressure on the strategic water sources, mainly boreholes, was less than expected under depressed rains. Livestock prices were above the LTA due to their good body condition whereas the yields for maize and beans in irrigated agriculture were expected to be 89 percent and 76 percent of the long term average respectively. Markets were operating normally and prices of foodstuffs were stable and close to the average price. Internal livestock migration in search of pasture was reported especially in some parts of the Pastoral livelihood of the county. This was likely to hamper livestock disease control or altogether accelerate the outbreaks of disease. The Terms of Trade were above the LTA and are expected to remain so from February to April 2021. Although households employed normal coping strategies to get food or get money to buy food, Pastoral households strained more compared to Agro-pastoral households. By December 2020, the Coping Strategy Index for the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones was 8.7 and 3.5 respectively. The prevalence of the common ailment of URTI, Diarrhea and Malaria among under-fives decreased by 11.4 percent, 54.2 percent and 40.7 percent respectively for the period July – December 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The reduction in prevalence in diarrhoea was attributed to the increase in hand hygiene and hand sanitation practices carried out as part of the COVID-19 prevention measures. The county experienced a slight decline in Coping Strategy in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood zones. During the same period, fully immunized children in 2020 were 73.3 percent compared to 87 percent in the same period in 2019. Vitamin A coverage for 12-59 months decreased by 27.5 percentage points in July-December 2020 when compared to the same period in 2019. Health facilities were perceived as high-risk places in the spread of the COVID-19 disease. The decline in immunization and Vitamin A supplementation was due to the suspension of some strategies used to reach out to children such as the Malezi Bora and the health workers strike in December 2020. The children under risk of malnutrition among under-fives were stable and below the long term average for the entire year of 2020. By January

2021, the proportion of under-fives who were at risk of malnutrition was 7 percent compared to the long term average of 11.0 percent. There was a drop in school enrollments in 2021 second term compared to the first term in 2020 due to teenager pregnancies and migration. During the assessment, no school was running any school meals programme. 5.1.3 Sub-county Ranking The sub-county rankings in terms of food security are shown in Table 17 with a ranking of 1 the most insecure sub-county and a ranking of 5 for the most secure sub-county. Table 17: Sub-county food security ranking Sub County Predominant Food Main food security threat / Contributing factors Livelihood security rank Kajiado Central Pastoral 1 - The poor performance of the 2020 short rains - Mainly a pastoral zone/limited alternative livelihood - With the sub-county receiving the off-season rains, the sub-county was likely to be a breeding place for livestock diseases - Ipomea is a threat to pasture production/pasture development - More prone to COVID-19 Kajiado West Pastoral 2 - The poor performance of the 2020 short rains - Mainly a pastoral zone/limited alternative livelihood - Poor infrastructures such as road networks - High food-stuff prices Kajiado East Agro pastoral 3 - Land sub-division - Near normal rainfall - More alternative forms of livelihoods Kajiado South Pastoral 4 - Relatively better performance of the 2020 short rains - More alternative forms of livelihood - Lower food-stuff price - Strong base for casual labour Kajiado North Mixed 5 - Alternative forms of livelihoods Farming - most of the household live in the urban centres - Malnutrition rates are lower - high potential for crop production - Higher adaptation to innovations and technologies

5.2 Ongoing Interventions Sub-county Intervention Ward/ No. of Proposed Impacts Available Time Location beneficiarie Implemen in terms Resources Frame s ters of food security Agriculture Immediate Interventions Kajiado Capacity All wards 5,000 CGK/KEP improves 600,000 Continuous South, building on HIS and food Kajiado utilization and other availabili East, post-harvest partners ty Kajiado handling of Central & crop produce Kajiado North County Control of any All wards 5,000 CGK Minimiz 1,000,000 Continuous Wide migratory e pests including possible Desert locust, crop and Fall pasture Armyworm damages County Promotion of All wards 4,000 MOA Improve 1,000,000 Continuous Wide drought- d food tolerant crops availabili (Normal Extn ty at the work) househol d level Livestock Immediate Interventions Kajiado Capacity Kajiado 1000 County Increase 1milion 1year building on East households governme d food hay production nt security and by conservation 20percen t Kajiado Grants to Kajiado 2000 KCSAP 15m 2 yrs farmer Central, households county Improve Kajiado d food South and security Kajiado West sub- counties Livestock Medium Term Interventions Kajiado Establishment Kajiado 1000 CGK, Increase 5milion 5years of pastures at East GoK d food ATCs security by 20percen t Water Immediate Interventions

Supply of hand Kajiado Ilbissil CGK Enhance 5m 01/21-06/21 wash facilities Central Namanga /GoK water at livestock Kajiado (KWTF) availabili market centres ty and and bus stops Kajiado Kimana “ access to South Loitoktok househol Kajiado Ngong “ d

North Kiserian Cost Nkairimurun ya Kajiado Isinya “ east Kitengela Kajiado Kiserian “ West Shompole 1. Borehol 500 CGK 2000000 01/21-02/21 Kajiado e central- equipping Inkuseron and rehabilitati 800 CGK 5000000 01/21-02/21 ons Kajiado Central 2. Pipeline 600 CGK 5000000 01/21-06/21 (Ilngosuani) extensions

Nkoile

Kajiado west- Pipeline 600 CGK 4000000 01/21-03/21 Singiraini extension Kajiado East- Borehole 800 CGK 7000000 01/21-03/21 Engirrgir drilling and equipping Kajiado New water 3000 CGK/GoK 40000000 01/21-03/21 centra- source Namanga constructio n Kajiado South Spring 400 CGK 3000000 01/21-03/21 -Enchorroi developme nt and storage tank COVID-19 Countywide CGK 10m 01/21-06/21 interventio -Kiserian /GoK ns-Supply -Ewuaso of water -Shompole tanks to -Sultan schools Hamud and market -Huduma centres Centre (Kisamis)

-Primary schools Health Interventions Vitamin A County Male; Boost CDH 200,000 Twice a Supplementati Health Female body year on facility 104021;9994 immunity 1 Zinc County 12077; CDH Ksh.23,682 Continuous Supplementati Health 11604 on facility Management County 1457; 5081 Boost the CDH Ksh.40,000, Continuous of Acute Health health 000 Malnutrition facility/ status of (IMAM) Outreach children sites and IYCN County 104021; expectant CDH Integrated Continuous Interventions Health 99941 mothers into other (EBF and facility activities Timely Intro of complementar y Foods) Iron Folate Health 0; 287947 CDH Ksh. 0.3M Continuous Supplementati facility on among Pregnant Women Deworming Health 77747; Boost CDH Ksh. Continuous facility 82606 health 0.330M The health 587892; status CDH Continuous facility, 611889 communit y and household Promotion of The health 104021; Control of CDH 0.16M Continuous community- facility, 99941 disease led total communit outbreak sanitation- y and such as rural. household diarrhoea School health Schools 104021; and CDH 0.16M Continuous and sanitation county 99941 cholera Water safety Kajiado 587892; CDH 0.34M September- and quality West, 611889 November control South, 2020 Central, East and North

5.3 Recommended Interventions Sub Intervention Ward No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame Agriculture Countywi Provision of Countywide 10,000 MOA at 10M Manpower Feb - de Drought farmers National and March Tolerant Crop CGK, Other 2021 seeds (Beans, Partners Maize, Cowpeas, Green grams) County Desert locust Countywide 1000 people CGK, National 5M Technical Feb- Wide sensitization Government Officers March Management for and other 2021 Leaders, Public partners Officers and other technical Officers County Purchase of Countywide CGK, National 10M Technical Feb- Wide Agro-chemicals Government Officers March and Equipment and other 2021 for control od partners crops pests and diseases Kajiado Aflatoxin Rombo, 1000 H/H CGK, National 5M Technical Feb- South sensitization and Kuku, Government Officers, March Control Kimana and other Mobile 2021 partners Grain dryer Livestock Kajiado Capacity Kajiado East 1,000 Extension 1M Extension 1year east building households officers staff All Breed All counties 20,000 KAGRC 20M Extension 5 yrs counties improvement households staff, various breeds Central Establishment of Central 61,000 County 10M Farmers 5 yrs Strategic Donors Land livestock feed Ngos pasture reserves All sub- Promotional of All sub- 50,000 County donors 2M Farmers counties alternative counties land Contin livelihoods ous All sub- Disease All sub- 50,000 National/ 50M - Contin counties surveillance and counties county/ ous control Development partners Kajiado Livestock Feed Kajiado 1,000 National/ 50M 6 West, East supplementation West, East county/ months and South and South 27

Development partners Water Recommended Immediate Interventions Kajiado Repair of non- Oltepesi 500 CGK/National 0.9M 0 01/21- Central functional govt/stakeholde 06/21 boreholes rs “ Ololua 2500 CGK/National 4.5M 0 01/21- govt/stakeholde 06/21 rs “ Enkolili 1000 CGK/National 2.5M 0 01/21- govt/stakeholde 06/21 rs Kajiado Ilmakurrie 500 CGK/National 2.5M 0 01/21- West govt/stakeholde 06/21 rs Kajiado Sompeti 500 CGK/National 3.5M 0 01/21- South govt/stakeholde 06/21 rs Kajiado Olepolos 1200 CGK/National 3M 0 01/21- North govt/stakeholde 06/21 rs Kajiado Kiloh 2500 CGK/National 5M 0 01/21- East govt/stakeholde 06/21 rs “ Olompinyo 1500 CGK/National 4.5M 0 01/21- govt/stakeholde 06/21 rs Water Medium and Long Term recommended Interventions Countywi Drilling and Countywide Countywide CGK/GoK/ 350M Land & 2021- de equipment of Other actors technical 2025 additional skills 50borehole Construction of Countywide Countywide CGK/GoK/ 250M Technical 2021- 25 No. water Other actors skills and 2025 pans & dams land Training of 50 Countywide Countywide CGK/GoK/ 2M Trainers 2021- community Other actors 2025 water committees on water and Covid 19 management.