312 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW. JULY, 1901
NOTES BY THE EDITOR. A PROPOSED METEOROLOGICAL COMlldISSION. November 1, 1870, the citizens of the United States, rarely A letter recently received by the Chief of the Weather Bu- recognized the possibilities of foreseeing the weather twenty- reau from a distinguished citizen in Council Bluffs, Iowa, four hours in advance with any greater certainty than that contains a proposition that may be best explained by the fol- attained by the local wisdom of the oldest residents. On lowing quotation: that date they awoke from this dream of ignorance and began to dimly comprehend the fact that by persistent study, if the In view of the repeated calamities visited upon the farmers and proper data are at hand, man will be able to predict the business men of the country b reason of drought and their lack of knowing the laws of nature, wly would it not be for the best, to ap- weather to a certain limited degree of refinement. Since that oint a commission of experts to investigate and formulate a system day the Weather Bureau has made some progress and is prob- Ey which a foreknowledge of the seasons can be obtained, and the ably now doing all that can be done with the available data. information diffused regularly hereafter, so that the farmers will know order to do better, we need on the one hand daily weather what to plant and sow, and thus save themselves from such calamities In as we are now experiencing? * * * It is useless, it is criminal tp maps, covering a broader extent of continents and oceans, say such a system can not be formulated. Years of study and investi- and similar maps for the upper regions of the atmosphere, gation have convinced me that it can. I have sought no publicity in such as can only be furnished by the use of kites, balloons, such matters because I am only a plain citizen who has been humbly doing all the good he could for his fellows. The ancient students of and mountain stations. On the other hand, we need a much meteorology had this knowledge, and as the same laws are still exist- more profound investigation of the mechanical problems in- ing, and as pro ressive men have knowledge of their workings, there volved in the motions of the atmosphere than has as yet been is no reason w%y they s?,ould not be utilized for the benefit of man- possiblesfor man to execute. There is a limit to what any kind. Calling such men cranks,” “ charlatans” and other epithets does no ood, and does not alter one law of nature. Philanthropists man or any generation of men can accomplish. We are never tafk that way, but investi ate and put truths in active force for always building upon the foundations that have been laid by ihe public blessing. * * * f; have mentioned these men because our predecessors. Occasionally a genius strikes out on some they are experts, although in some cases of o posingschools. Set wholly new plan of operations and then the world of science they are possessed of sufficient charity and intehgence to agree upon takes a new start. The progress of knowledge since the days mutual concessions and formulate a system that will do away with the misery experienced by the unfortunate in these recurring famines, of Aristotle may be divided into periods marked by the ad- whose effect, under such a system can, as I believe, be materially vent of such men as Copernicas, Galileo, Newton, Fourier, ameliorated if backed by the authority and dignity of this Govern- Gauss, Helmholtz, Riemann, and Maxwell. The progrese of ment. meteorology is due to the devotion of such men as Redfield, The reply of the Chief of the Bureau to the above letter Espy, and Ferrel, among the dead, and Ham, Mohn, von emphasizes some points that are, perhaps, apt to be forgotten Bezold, Mascart, Eliot, Wild, and Neumayer, among the living. by the public at large, and we venture to make the follow- A host of names of other active workers might be mentioned, ing extract, which claarly defines his own convictions and but these men and their assistants have solved some of the expresses the general concensus of opinion among all through- difficult problems that beset the path of progress, and it is out the world who have a right to be called meteorologists. by a continuance of such work as they have done that we While reco nizing the incalculable value of a foreknowledge of sea- must expect final success. We are one with the farmers and sonable weat%er conditions, I am not prepared to concur in your be- business men of the country in their desire to hasten the lief regarding the possibilities of acquirin this knowledge, or accept progress of our knowledge by the discovery of unknown laws your estimate of the knowledge possessecf by the ancient students of of nature, but they must not expect these laws to be written meteorology. The Egyptians and Greeks conducted a system of ob- servations, and determined by the transit of the stars, and the rising out in such plain terms that a L‘ commission of experts ” can of the constellations the march of the various seasons suitable for ‘‘ formulate a system by which a foreknowledge of the sea- agriculture or for the irrigation of lands. The Egyptians also had sons can be obtained, so that the farmers will know what to gages to accurately note the height of the Nile, and by the flow of that river, and by its height or lowness nt certain seasons, they calculated plant and sow.” It is not likely that the simplest rational whether flood or drought would follow. For, upon the height of the system of weather prediction could be easily handled by the Nile depended the success or failure of the coming harvest time. The farmer. The latter now gets his knowledge of the astrologi- meteorological knowledge of the ancients was, so far as history shows, cal predictions from the farmer’s almanacs which are for sale limited to a knowledge of the effects of visible conditions. Thus, when the Nile watered the agricultural districts of Egypt, good har- everywhere in this country and Europe. If the farmers wish vests followed; when the Nile wae low the fields were dr and a sea- anything better than these they must for the present be son of dearth followed. * * * Modern meteorologica?knowledgt, content with those that are published by the official weather has been acquired during the last century, and it is certain that rior bureaus of every civilized country. to the year 163, when Redfield announced his discovery of theqaas of storms, the scientific world possessed no definite knowledge of the There is no nation that does not now maintain a system of laws which govern the movements of the atmosphore, and which con- telegraphic reports of the weather and daily predictions care- trol its various phenomena. * * * It is believed that the Weather fully compiled therefrom. These forecasts for the coming Bureau of the Department of Agriculture is thoroughly familiar with day, or two days, represent the best thought of conservative all meteorologic knowledge, both ancient and modern, and that every le itimate effort is being made by that Bureau to acquire a foreknowl- students who would not publish a prediction that has not e&e of the weather which will be useful to farmers in seasons of nine chances out of tan in favor of its verification. planting and harvesting. As a matter of fact, every national government weather The subject of seasonable weather forecasting is receiving special bureau in the world has in its employ one or more experts attention, and all lines of investigation which are calculated to estab- lish laws which y?ntrol future weather conditions are being erhmst- whose thoughts are given principally to the improvement of ively followed. lhat these investigations may be successful, is the its methods and especially the invention of some satisfactory earnest wish of every modern student of meteorology. method of long range forecasts or general predictions of the character of the seasons one month or six months or even The above correspondence suggeets a few additional thoughte a year in advance. It is well known that in this matter of which may be worth publishing if thereby we may allay any seasonal forecasts the meteorological reporters for the gov- uneasinels in the minds of those whose property in crops and ernment of India, Mr. Blanford and Mr. John Eliot, and their cattle is frequently destroyed or threatened with destruction assistant, Mr. William Dallas, have thus far taken the lead. by droughts and floods, winds and lightning. Previous ta They have, in fact, experienced but one serious failure in the
Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/27/21 06:09 PM UTC JULY, 1901. 313 last fifteen years in the forecast of monsoon rains. Theii tellectual development of Europe, and our readers will.be glad methods are very special, adapted only to India, and noi to know in detail the arguments and investigations that have applicable to the United States. Doubtless equally good brought our correspondent to his conclusion. methods will be invented to meet the necessities of Americar farmers, but these will almost certainly not be devised by a It has always seemed to the Editor very strange that BO many mixed commission of astronomers and inventors and astrolo. are inclined to attribute to the ancients a perfection in civili- gists, such as those specifically suggested by the author of the zation and knowledge greater or even as great as that which above letter. It is to some one man that we must look, one we enjoy at the present day. During the past century, one who shall patiently study the subject in the light of a com. may often meet in literature with the expression “the lost plete knowledge of the mechanics of the earth’s atmosphere- arts,” as though something that could be of value to us. had just as La Place advanced astronomy by his exhaustive knowl. been known long ago but is now irrecoverably lost. We very edge of celestial mechanics. A commission or committet much doubt the truth of this proposition. In the preaent often serves a good purpose in collecting data or suggesting case we certainly have no evidence whatever that the ancient problems for others to work upon, or in stimulating the besl students of meteorology had a knowledge that would enable efforts of ambitione students, hut we do uot know of a single them to make seasonable forecasts of the weather at all com- case in which such a commission has itself successfully inves- parable with those that are called for at the present time. tigated an abstruse problem, such as that offered by the atmos. We do know, in a general way, that the Chaldeane supported phere. An investigation in an almoet untrodden field car a priestly class who studied the stars, probably also the atmos- best, and we may say only, be carried out by one individual phere, and predicted future events in the lives of men by means He may have many assistants to do-the computing, the search. of astrological rules. Some fragments of their knowledge are ing, and the humdrum mathematical work, but his own cleai being translated for us from the cuneiform inscriptions of thought must dominate the whole. Babylon, Nineveh, Erech, and other cities whose ruins have fortunately been preserved. The documents that have thus In so far as the problems of meteorology can be resolved far been translated reveal a state of civilization and a social by study, progress will be best accomplished by the help of a organization adapted to the needs of those nations but in so-called meteorological laboratory or a school of meteorology no way superior to what me ourselves enjoy at the present established in connection with some one of our universities day. This Chaldean system of observation and investigation in which special attention is paid to the mechanics of thf doubtless continued for several hundred years, yet it had not atmosphere with its attending physics and mathematics in it that spirit of progress which marks the present civiliza- Analogous laboratories and observatories in Europe have tion of Europe and America. We hope, indeed, that docu- given us all the knowledge that modern science possesses oi ments will be discovered showing that the priests had arrived astronomy, chemistry, physics, physiology, and electricity, at some important meteorological generalizations ; yet this is Galileo’s wisdom was communicated to the world through only a hope ; nothing of the kind has as yet been found out, his experimental work and lectures at the universities oi nor any indication that it ever existed. The Chaldean mete- Florence, Padua, and Pisa. The universities of France, Ger- orology, even if it were preserved to us complete, would proba- many, and England have developed those who add to knowl- bly be as barren of valuable results as are the voluminous edge as distinguished from those who teach and those wha records that have been preserved in China and India for the apply. The investigator, the teacher, and the inventor hae past two or three thousand years. The art of investigating each his own work to do. We have at present in this country nature, and of determining the exact phraseology of her laws, not a single university where meteorology is studied and and the art of applying this knowledge to the daily needs of taught as a branch of applied physics and mathematics. Our mankind, is almost wholly the creation of modern times, be- most eminent Ferrel, the founder of modern meteorology, ginning with Galileo and Newton. We shall not draw any was always a Government employee and was deprived of the inspiration from the ancients. The future growth of mete- great stimulus that comes from daily association with post orology must be founded upon the study of mathematics, graduate students. Even European universities have but mechanics, and physics, as taught in the scientific schools of lately given the modern dynamic meteorology its proper rank modern universities. Our author pleads for fair treatment alongside of astronomy, mathematics, and electricity, and of those who are called “ cranks,” “charlatans,” “ astrologers,” above the old fashioned statistical climatology. Nothing etc., whom de Morgan calls “paradoxers”; but these are the stimulates a man of thought more than the consciousness very ones who have nothing to do with modern science. They that ambitious students are following him in his investiga- are to science what the anarchiets are to society. They can tions and will take up the thread of study where he lays it not reconcile themselves to the world as it is, and are content down. Ninety-nine per cent of the beautiful and important to live in a dreamland where matters are arranged very dif- investigations annually published by the young candidates ferently from what they are on this earth. Common sense for scientific honors in American and foreign universities are demands that we who live on the earth should abide by the but thd development of ideas awakened in the student and Laws that regulate this material world. disciple by the deeper thought of the mtlster. Happy the youth who studies under such masters. Happy the univer- In the last portion of his letter, our correspondent says sity that is wise enough to keep such men in its faculty. that the experts mentioned by him, and representing o$- The author of the above letter from Council Bluffs says posing schools of astronomy and astrology, “are possessed of that ‘(years of study and investigation have convinced him mfficient charity and intelligence to agree upon mutual con- that a system can be formulated by which a foreknowledge :essions and to formulate a system that will do away with of the seasons can be obtained.” We quite agree with him the misery experienced by the unfortunate in these recurring as to this conclusion, because, on general principles, me be- Famines.” But does the country really want a system of lieve that the gradual increase in knowledge and the develop- weather predictions baRed on “mutual concessions ” by the ment of the intellect of man will give him a complete insight wrangling representatives of opposing schools ? What have into nature’s laws. Not that we can change the lams, but their “mutual concessionw” to do with the laws of nature? that we can understand them and use them. Our conclusion Do we not aather want a system based upon the natural facts is not based upon special study and investigation so much as and laws, unbiased by human theories? Would it not be it is upon a general philosaphic SUDV~Yof the progressive in- just as well for the opposing schools, each by itself, to formu-
Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/27/21 06:09 PM UTC 314 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW. JULY,1W)l late its own system, if it has any, and give us a chance to see what others have done, suggests that there should be an in- whether either is at all satisfactory as a basis of long-range timate relation and frieudly cooperation between such a na- forecasting 1 The Weather Bureau is not so wedded to the tional university and the Civil Service Commission. daily weather map, with it.s clear presentation of the actual The address by President Stubbs of Nevada, and especially state of affairs and the general drift of the weather for the that of J. K. Patterson, contained in the above-mentioned next few days, but what it would quickly adopt the horo- Bulletin No. 99, emphasize the necessity of a systematic co- scopes of the astrologer or the cycles of the empiricists if ordination of the courses of study. there were the least chance of doing anything with these methods more satisfactory than is being done at the present time. It can not be too strongly stated that up to the preeent time no man has yet appeared who has shown himself able INSTRUUTIONS TO THE VOLUNTaRY mTEOROLO
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