1. the Big Picture Political Security
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Libya Weekly Political Security Update Bell Whispering Bell May 19, 2020 1. The Big Picture GNA forces seize Al-Wattiyah amid broader east Med tensions This week,, Libyan National Army (LNA) forces under continues to face pressure to reinvent itself to obtain the Khalifa Haftar’s command intensified shelling against buy-in of tribes in Zintan and Bani Walid. Tripoli but denied its involvement in the targeting of Tripoli’s Central Hospital and adjacent buildings. Meanwhile, after its military intervention to ensure a Meanwhile, Government of National Accord (GNA) level playing field in the Libyan combat theatre, there is forces continued to focus on LNA supply lines across evidence to indicate Turkey is now looking at next the western region. steps, including the broader battle for hydrocarbon resources in the east Mediterranean. Ankara shifted its CONTENTS While Tripoli frontlines remained relatively unchanged, attention this week to the exclusive economic zone GNA forces launched a third offensive on Al-Wattiyah (EEZ) off Libya’s shores, the second part of its 1 airbase further west between 17-18 May. The GNA agreement with the GNA. THE BIG PICTURE forces successfully entered the airbase between 0800- GNA forces seize Al-Wattiyah 0900hrs local time on 18 May. The development has In fact, Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) applied for an been described as the most significant LNA defeat exploration permit in the eastern Mediterranean from amid broader east Med after the loss of Gharyan in June 2019. However, the the GNA. The move would further exacerbate tensions tensions LNA’s head of moral guidance, Brigadier Khaled in the region between Turkey and the Greece-Cyprus- Mahjoub, downplayed the loss as “symbolic”, adding France-Egypt bloc. Turkey’s interest is in delaying any 2 that LNA forces did not rely on the base to fly combat regional offshore drilling and exploration activity, NATIONWIDE SECURITY sorties across the West. specifically the completion of the East Med pipeline, by this rival bloc in the medium term. The move closely Events, Analysis and Data Reports allege the operation was supported by an follows, and is in direct response to, the joint statement offshore Turkish military frigate that fired missiles to by Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, France, and the UAE, which 3 target LNA assets overnight. Meanwhile, the ground described Turkey as a threat to regional stability. SECURITY BY NUMBERS offensive - led by factions from Zawiya, Misrata, and Zuwara - was preceded by a series of UAV strikes However, Turkey’s plans to expand its presence in Charts, Statistics and Analysis carried out by the GNA and prompting a retreat of local Libya could be put to the test when the EU’s LNA forces from the airbase at approximately 0430hrs EUNAVFOR Med Operation IRINI officially begins to 4 on 18 May. Reports confirm no engagement was enforce and monitor the arms embargo. The latest TRIPOLI REPORT recorded when GNA forces entered the airbase later reports indicate internal disagreements are delaying the News & Neighborhoods in the morning. operation. Greece has reportedly deployed its Hydra frigate to join patrols by the end of May, while France Overall, the loss of Al-Wattiyah will reverberate in LNA has agreed to deploy two frigates. For its part, Malta 5 ranks and could even undermine the LNA’s overall froze contributions due to migration issues. As the EU BENGHAZI REPORT posture in Tripoli’s southern frontlines. The impact on member state leading the operation, Italy’s own News & Neighborhoods the morale of local LNA forces will be acute ahead of contribution to IRINI is awaiting parliamentary approval, the Eid holiday period. GNA forces will now focus on as per Italian FM Luigi Di Maio. maintaining their position at the airbase before 6 eventually enabling Turkey to consolidate its In sum, Turkey is gradually demonstrating that it is WHAT’S NEXT capabilities and deploy more resources. Ankara views willing to go to greater lengths in Libya than other Forward Looking Expert Al-Wattiyah, one of the largest bases in Libya, as a foreign players, including some LNA foreign backers Opinions platform to establish a foothold across Libya’s western operating under a veil of plausible deniability across region and protect its interests in the east Libya. However, the political dimension of the conflict Mediterranean and the Maghreb. will continue to represent Turkey’s Achilles’ heel in Libya. With little domestic support for any foreign Locally, the loss of Al-Wattiyah raises the prospect of intervention in Libya, Ankara’s entire architecture in the tensions west of Tripoli between the GNA coalition and country is contingent on the GNA’ survival. Any remaining LNA-aligned forces in Zintan and Al-Rujban. domestic move to create a new government threatens Of note, local Zintan battalions controlled the airbase to upend the status quo, and by extension Turkey’s with other LNA forces from the East. Some Zintan security and maritime deals with the GNA. battalions, including Battalion 78, withdrew from the airbase in late April as a result of intensified GNA/Turkish UAV strikes. Zintanis remain divided in their support for the LNA, although GNA forces will KEY POINTS likely tread carefully to avoid igniting tribal tensions • GNA implements full 24hr curfew over Eid period across the west. Regardless of the victory, the GNA • GNA forces seize Al-Wattiyah after LNA retreat • Turkey mulls exploration rights in east med Libya Weekly Political and Security Update 1 Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2020. All rights reserved. Whispering Bell May 19, 2020 2. National Security Map GNA claims three LNA-operated Pantsir air defence systems destroyed Key THREAT INDICATORS Severe Threat Assailants assassinated a pro-GNA Zawiya- based militiaman identified as Tarek Al-Souissi High Threat in front of his house in Zawiya on 16 May. Reports allege Misrata-based factions carried Moderate Threat out the assassination. The tribal head of the municipality of Kabaw, Sheikh Abdullah Makhlouf, was found EVENT INDICATORS assassinated in the Kabaw region in the evening on 15 May. Reports allege local pro- IED | VBIED GNA armed factions assassinated Makhlouf over his rapprochement with LNA commander Khalifa Haftar and previous meetings with Violent Clash east-based authorities. Isolated Gunfire A GNA UAV was downed by LNA forces over Bani Walid at approximately 1830hrs on Other 14 May. In a separate incident, GNA UAV strikes were reported in Ashmeikh, south GNA forces reported three airstrikes targeted LNA of Bani Walid, at approximately 2030hrs on 15 positions in Al-Wattiyah Airbase over on 12 May. May. Meanwhile, GNA UAV strikes targeted a WB recorded a total of 12 GNA airstrikes against the vehicle in the Wadi Marseet area, airbase between 10-12 May. south Mizdah, at approximately 1700hrs on 15 May, reportedly killing at least two civilians. Thirteen House of Representatives (HoR) members Meanwhile, the GNA military spokesman, denounced the “unlawful” arrest of the Interim Mohamed Gonounou, reported an LNA convoy Government Finance Minister, Kamel Al-Hassi, was targeted between Tininai and Bani Walid denying allegations he attempted to escape via the on 15 May. Libyan-Egyptian Emsaed border crossing carrying approx. 400,000 US dollars (USD) on 13 May. the Reports of a fire outbreak in the GNA- law. affiliated Bani Waled Municipal Council at GNA forces reported the destruction of an LNA- approximately 1800hrs on 13 May. operated Pantsir S-1 air defence system two hours Unconfirmed reports indicate arson in after its deployment at Al-Wattiyah airbase on 16 retaliation for the killing of two men as a result May. GNA official accounts published video footage of a GNA-operated Turkish UAV strike of the UAV strike targeting the air defence system, targeting a civilian vehicle in the Eshmikh area, though reports failed to confirm the authenticity of south of Bani Waled, earlier that afternoon. the footage. In addition, the GNA forces reported a second LNA-operated Pantsir S-1 system was Reports indicate a prisoner exchange took targeted at approximately 0530hrs on 17 May. place in Bani Waled, including a GNA 301 Further, GNA reported the targeting of an LNA Battalion member from Souq Al Jum'aa and a convoy transporting a Pantsir and electronic warfare member of the LNA’s 128 Battalion system (allegedly a Krasukha mobile system) on the from Sawknah. Al-Ruwagha road linking Waddan to Sirte at approximately 0358hrs on 18 May. Libya Weekly Political and Security Update Further distribution without written consent of Whispering Bell is strictly prohibited. The Whispering Bell Libya Weekly Political and Security Update™ does not constitute advice and must not be regarded as a substitute for detailed advice in individual cases. It is provided “as is” and without warranty of any kind. Whispering Bell shall have no liability arising from any use made of this report, or any part of it, to the fullest extent permitted by law. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form. Copyright © 2018. All rights reserved.