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Towards a Middle-Class Society Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Towards a Middle-Class Society aMiddle-Class Towards DECEMBER 2014 MALAYSIA ECONOMIC MONITOR DECEMBER 2014 TOWARDS A MIDDLE-CLASS SOCIETY Southeast Asia Country Management Unit Country Director: Ulrich Zachau Chief Economist: Sudhir Shetty Comments to: Mathew A. Verghis [email protected] Frederico Gil Sander [email protected] 30th Floor, Siam Tower 989 Rama I Road, Pathumwan Bangkok 10330, Thailand +66 (0) 2 686-8300 www.worldbank.org/my Acknowledgements This edition of the Malaysia Economic Monitor was prepared by Frederico Gil Sander (task team leader), Truman Packard, Ririn Salwa Purnamasari, Mauro Testaverde, Konstantin M. Wacker, Wei Aun Yap and Pui Shen Yoong, under the overall guidance of Ulrich Zachau, Sudhir Shetty, Shubham Chaudhuri and Mathew Verghis. Outstanding research assistance was provided by Marife Lou Bacate and Theepakorn Jithitikulchai. The team wishes to thank Ulrich Zachau, Mathew Verghis, Philip O’Keefe, Mark Dorfman, Ekaterine Vashakmadze and Nikola Spatafora for helpful comments, suggestions and guidance. This report benefited from fruitful discussions, comments, and information from various sections of the Economic Planning Unit in the Prime Minister’s Department, the Economics Department of Bank Negara Malaysia, the Department of Statistics Malaysia, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, the Performance Management and Delivery Unit (PEMANDU), TalentCorp, Khazanah Research Institute, and other Government ministries and agencies. We also thank representatives from the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers, the American Malaysian Chamber of Commerce, and analysts at several financial and rating institutions for helpful discussions. We wish to especially thank the EPU and the Department of Statistics for providing the preliminary data of the 2014 Household Income Survey. We are indebted to the International Cooperation Section of Economic Planning Unit for their ongoing collaboration with the World Bank and in particular their extensive support in the launch of this report. Paul Risley, Anne Elicaño and Trinn Suwannapha provided excellent assistance in external relations and web production, Quo designed the cover, and Pimon Iamsripong and Angkanee Luangpenthong provided additional support. Photo credits: Ladies buying food, tire shop assistant, and the family taking photo: Nafise Motlaq. Indian shopkeeper: Trinn (‘Pong) Suwannapha. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The report is based on information current as of December 10, 2014. i ABBREVIATIONS AER American Economic Review ALMP Active labor market programs ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nation BB1M 1Malaysia Book Voucher Scheme BIS Bank for International Settlements BNM Bank Negara Malaysia BOP Balance of payments BOT Bantuan Orang Tua BR1M Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia CA Current account CISS Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress CoE Compensation of employees CSPS Civil service pension scheme DECPG Development Economics Research Prospects Group DOSM Department of Statistics Malaysia DSW Department of Social Welfare E&E Electrical and electronics ECB European Central Bank EIA Energy Information Administration EMEs Emerging Market Economies EPF Employee Provident Fund EPU Economic Planning Unit ETP Economic Transformation Programme EU European Union FBM FTSE Bursa Malaysia FDI Foreign direct investments G&S Goods and Services GDP Gross Domestic Product GE Generalized Enthropy (see Annex 1) GEMS Graduate Employability Management GFCF Gross fixed capital formation GIC Growth Incidence Curve GLCs Government-Linked Companies GNI Gross national income GOS Gross Operating Surplus GST Goods and services tax GTP Government Transformation Program HIS Household Income Survey HoH Head of Household ICT Information and computing technology ICU Implementation and Coordination Unit IEA International Energy Agency IFS International Finance Statistics IIF Institute of International Finance ILMIA Institute for Labor Markets Information and Analysis ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IT Information Technology KLCI Kuala Lumpur Composite Index LEDs Light-Emitting Displays LICO Low-Income Cut-Offs LIM Low Income Measures LNG Liquefied natural gas LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MAC Migration Advisory Committee MBM Market Basket Measure MENA Middle-East and North Africa MGS Malaysian Government Securities MOF Ministry of Finance MoHE Ministry of Higher Education MOPS Mean of Platts Singapore MRT Mass Rapid Transit MWFCD Ministry of Women, Families and Community Development NBER National Bureau of Economic Research NBER National Bureau for Economic Research ii NEM New Economic Model NEP New Economic Policy NFPE Non-Financial Public Enterprise NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations NKEA National Key Economic Area NKRA National Key Result Area OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries OPR Overnight Policy Rate PDS Private debt securities PEMANDU Performance Management and Delivery Unit PISA Programme for International Student Assessments PITA Petroleum Income Tax Act PL Poverty line PMI Purchasing Manager's Index PMT Proxy Means Test PPI Producer price index PPP Purchasing power parity PRS Private retirement schemes R&D Research and Development RAPID Refinery and Integrated Petrochemical Integrated Development REP Returning Expert Programme RP-T Resident Pass - Talent SI Social insurance SME Small and Medium Enterprises SOC Standard Occupational Classification SOCSO Social Security Organisation SP social protection SPM Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia TFP Total Factor Productivity TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training UK United Kingdom UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNESCO United Nation Educational, Social and Cultural Organization UPENA Unit Penerbitan UiTM US United States WDI World Development Indicators WHO World Health Organization WVS World Values Survey iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................... 1 The Malaysian Economy in Pictures ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Towards a Middle-Class Society in Pictures ................................................................................................................................ 4 1. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook .................................................................................................................... 5 Malaysia’s economy continued to expand, led by domestic drivers .................................................................................... 5 A softer tone in the external sector ............................................................................................................................................... 5 The expansion in exports continued but lost some momentum ........................................................................................5 The current account surplus narrowed on weak exports and higher factor payments ................................................6 The domestic economy remained robust ................................................................................................................................... 7 Equipment investment retreated, but construction and private consumption continued to expand ......................7 Strong labor markets support household consumption .......................................................................................................8 Inflation edges up on higher administered prices but few signs of second-round effects................................................. 9 Fiscal policy in consolidation mode ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Stable financial conditions despite external uncertainties ..................................................................................................... 11 Monetary policy remains supportive of growth while watchful of imbalances ........................................................... 11 Credit growth decelerates, but housing loan growth remains steady .......................................................................... 12 External flows experienced greater volatility ...................................................................................................................... 13 Near-term outlook remains positive despite tightening domestic and external conditions ............................................ 14 Uneven global recovery constrains growth momentum.................................................................................................. 16 Domestic demand slows but remains a key driver of growth ......................................................................................... 17 Lower oil prices pose opportunities and risks to fiscal consolidation .............................................................................. 18 Risks to the outlook have increased ....................................................................................................................................
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