CURRENT HISTORY May 2010 “Three years after Nigerians gave the largely unknown Yar’Adua the benefit of the doubt despite his disputed electoral victory, their hopes again rest with an untested leader.” Nigeria’s Season of Uncertainty RichaRd Joseph and alexandRa Gillies othing,” wrote Reuben Abati, the achievements of two individuals: his older broth- editor of Nigeria’s The Guardian, er, Shehu Yar’Adua; and Olusegun Obasanjo, “N“can be more tragic than the present who served on two occasions as head of state. season of uncertainty in which Nigeria has found Shehu Yar’Adua had been Obasanjo’s deputy itself.” Indeed, in recent months the country has when the latter led a military government from experienced an extraordinary and often surreal 1976 to 1979. The two were accused in 1995 by political drama seemingly scripted by a writer of Sani Abacha, the military dictator at that time, fantasies. of planning his overthrow. Shehu Yar’Adua was On November 23, 2009, Nigerian President later murdered in prison, but Obasanjo survived Umaru Yar’Adua was flown to Saudi Arabia for and was elected president in 1999. emergency medical treatment. Confusion swirled When Obasanjo in May 2006 failed in an effort about his condition, though the immediate prob- to amend the constitution and thus secure a third lem was reported to be pericarditis, an inflamma- term in office, he installed as the 2007 presidential tion of tissues around his heart. candidate of the ruling People’s Democratic Party When, on Christmas Day, a young Nigerian (PDP) the younger Yar’Adua, then the governor named Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried (but of the small northern state of Katsina. Obasanjo failed) to ignite an explosive device on an air- proceeded to manipulate Nigeria’s political and liner that was approaching the airport in Detroit, electoral machinery to ensure Yar’Adua’s victory. Michigan, no Nigerian head of state was avail- The outcome was disputed by several losing can- able to engage with the US government over this didates but was upheld by the Supreme Court in alarming event. Following the attempted attack, December 2008. the United States placed Nigeria on a terrorism Yar’Adua in some ways resembled another watch list of 14 nations whose air travelers were president from northern Nigeria, Shehu Shagari, subjected to increased security screening. (On whom Obasanjo had also shepherded into office, April 2, that watch list was discarded in favor of a in 1979. Shagari, a well-meaning patrician, was different set of policies.) unable to control the plunderers around him. Military putschists ended his tenure in December Ill-fated polItIcs 1983, shortly after he had begun a second term in Yet, as serious as these developments were, a the wake of flawed and chaotic elections. more intense drama for Nigerians was unfolding But Yar’Adua, a northern successor to the south- in the nation’s capital, Abuja. For a harrowing ern Obasanjo, was handicapped not only politi- three months, this country of approximately 150 cally but physically. Yar’Adua had been known million people was without a captain at the helm. to suffer from kidney disease even as governor Yar’Adua had been elected president in April of Katsina. At the time of the Christmas bomb- 2007. He owed his position to the political ing attempt in the United States, the president had been absent for a month, receiving medical RichaRd Joseph is a professor of international history and treatment in Saudi Arabia, but had not transferred politics at Northwestern University. alexandRa Gillies is power to his vice president, Goodluck Jonathan. a research associate at the Revenue Watch Institute. They are coeditors of Smart Aid for African Development (Lynne Nigeria did not even have an ambassador to the Rienner, 2008). United States who could be summoned for con- 179 180 • CURRENT HISTORY • May 2010 sultations, since the US government had earlier Jonathan was declared acting president, a decision rejected the Nigerian designee. subsequently confirmed by the cabinet. On January 12, 2010, Yar’Adua, most likely Senior legislators found an ingenious way provoked by press reports of his dire physical con- around constitutional obstacles by citing a “doc- dition, granted a telephone interview to the BBC. trine of necessity,” never before invoked in He spoke in a weak voice of his intention to return Nigeria. The BBC interview with Yar’Adua, they to Nigeria as soon as his health permitted, but he claimed, fulfilled the constitutional requirement did not mention any transfer of authority. that a letter be transmitted to the National Nigeria’s 1999 constitution provides two Assembly, albeit via modern technology. Jonathan ways for power to be temporarily transferred therefore became acting president through an to the vice president. The simplest mode is the appointment process that deviated from the two transmission of a letter from the president to paths set forth in the constitution. One of his the National Assembly informing that body of first acts was to remove Aondoakaa from his his absence. The second requires the Federal ministry and from the commanding position he Executive Council (the cabinet) to appoint, had assumed during Yar’Adua’s absence. together with the Senate, a medical panel to “Goodluck Jonathan” could be a name invent- provide a report on the president. If he is found ed by whatever mischievous deities look over unable to execute his duties, the vice president is the Nigerian nation. He had the good luck to made acting president. Neither of these constitu- be deputy governor of the oil-rich delta state tional paths was taken. Bayelsa in 2005, when the governor, Diepreye To adopt the term widely used in Nigeria, a Alamieyeseigha, was apprehended by the London “cabal” that consisted of the president’s wife, Turai Metropolitan Police at Heathrow Airport with Yar’Adua, along with a few ministers and close suitcases filled with state money. (Tragicomically, political allies, worked to Alamieyeseigha skipped block a full transfer of power bail and returned to Nigeria to Vice President Jonathan. Poverty, conflict, and instability allegedly by disguising him- Meanwhile, throughout the self as a woman.) have been the bitter fruits of a eerie interregnum, Jonathan At that time, Obasanjo presided over cabinet meet- half-century of misrule. was using Nigeria’s anti- ings that made decisions corruption authorities to of questionable legality. prosecute governors who Bullying the cabinet and the nation during this crossed him, or crossed whatever line he inserted political parenthesis was the attorney general between the permissible and non-permissible and minister of justice, Michael Aondoakaa, who theft of public funds. Jonathan stepped in as gov- defended Yar’Adua’s authority and justified not ernor when Alamieyeseigha became the target of making Jonathan the officially acting president. one such prosecution. It was also fortuitous for These maneuvers alarmingly recalled the politi- Jonathan to be elevated to the vice presidency— cal gyrations that preceded Sani Abacha’s assump- Obasanjo orchestrated his selection as Yar’Adua’s tion of power in November 1993. Then, Moshood running mate in the 2007 election. Abiola, elected to the presidency in June of that In the early hours of February 24, 2010, year, was blocked from taking office and sub- Yar’Adua was hurriedly flown back to Nigeria by sequently imprisoned, eventually dying behind air ambulance. Six of his cabinet ministers had bars. This time, however, the armed forces did not arrived in Saudi Arabia earlier that day, osten- intervene, either by fully assuming power as they sibly to thank the Saudi government for look- had done several times, or by imposing a military- ing after him but really—as the third high-level civilian diarchy, as they did briefly in 1993. Nigerian delegation to visit that country during the crisis—in the hopes of seeing their ailing Back from the BrInk president. Jonathan was kept in the dark about February 9 and 10, 2010, may be remembered Yar’Adua’s precipitous return, which involved as the days when the Nigerian nation pulled the alarming deployment of a military brigade back from a precipice along which it had tottered in Abuja. for more than 11 weeks. Following unanimous For almost two days, Nigerians experienced votes in the Senate and House of Representatives, renewed uncertainty, especially since the first pub- Nigeria’s Season of Uncertainty • 181 lic statement by Yar’Adua’s spokesman referred to may, as did the infrequency of his public appear- Jonathan as vice, not acting, president. It seemed ances. Meetings with Yar’Adua became harder as if a fierce struggle over presidential author- for important individuals, both domestic and ity would erupt. American and British diplomats foreign, to secure. Even after the court upheld quickly released strong cautionary statements. his election, intrigue and incessant politicking Another announcement on behalf of the still persisted, generating a fin de régime atmosphere. unseen president, on February 26, acknowledged At his inauguration in May 2007, Yar’Adua had Jonathan as acting president and declared that all proposed a far-reaching “Seven-Point Agenda.” government officials should report to him. That After two and a half years of weak leadership, communication lessened but did not completely little progress has been made toward achieving disperse the constitutional cloud over Nigeria’s any of his objectives. federal institutions. It did, however, reduce the Atop the list of challenges that the president political tensions and anxiety. in 2007 committed to addressing is the coun- Nigeria’s season of uncertainty is likely to per- try’s eroded infrastructure, which constrains sist for some time. Crucial questions still await economic activity. Daily life for many Nigerians answers. Will the nation be given a full report on involves a grim pursuit of water, electricity, fuel, Yar’Adua’s medical status, and told if he can ever and transport.