sign in sign up
<<
Home , Sani Abacha, Shehu Shagari

CURRENT HISTORY May 2010

“Three years after gave the largely unknown Yar’Adua the benefit of the doubt despite his disputed electoral victory, their hopes again rest with an untested leader.” ’s Season of Uncertainty Richard Joseph and Alexandra Gillies

othing,” wrote Reuben Abati, the achievements of two individuals: his older broth- editor of Nigeria’s , er, Shehu Yar’Adua; and , “N“can be more tragic than the present who served on two occasions as head of state. season of uncertainty in which Nigeria has found Shehu Yar’Adua had been Obasanjo’s deputy itself.” Indeed, in recent months the country has when the latter led a government from experienced an extraordinary and often surreal 1976 to 1979. The two were accused in 1995 by political drama seemingly scripted by a writer of , the military dictator at that time, fantasies. of planning his overthrow. Shehu Yar’Adua was On November 23, 2009, Nigerian President later murdered in prison, but Obasanjo survived Umaru Yar’Adua was flown to Saudi Arabia for and was elected president in 1999. emergency medical treatment. Confusion swirled When Obasanjo in May 2006 failed in an effort about his condition, though the immediate prob- to amend the constitution and thus secure a third lem was reported to be pericarditis, an inflamma- term in office, he installed as the 2007 presidential tion of tissues around his heart. candidate of the ruling People’s Democratic Party When, on Christmas Day, a young Nigerian (PDP) the younger Yar’Adua, then the governor named Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried (but of the small northern state of Katsina. Obasanjo failed) to ignite an explosive device on an air- proceeded to manipulate Nigeria’s political and liner that was approaching the airport in Detroit, electoral machinery to ensure Yar’Adua’s victory. Michigan, no Nigerian head of state was avail- The outcome was disputed by several losing can- able to engage with the US government over this didates but was upheld by the Supreme Court in alarming event. Following the attempted attack, December 2008. the placed Nigeria on a terrorism Yar’Adua in some ways resembled another watch list of 14 nations whose air travelers were president from northern Nigeria, , subjected to increased security screening. (On whom Obasanjo had also shepherded into office, April 2, that watch list was discarded in favor of a in 1979. Shagari, a well-meaning patrician, was different set of policies.) unable to control the plunderers around him. Military putschists ended his tenure in December Ill-fated politics 1983, shortly after he had begun a second term in Yet, as serious as these developments were, a the wake of flawed and chaotic elections. more intense drama for Nigerians was unfolding But Yar’Adua, a northern successor to the south- in the nation’s capital, . For a harrowing ern Obasanjo, was handicapped not only politi- three months, this country of approximately 150 cally but physically. Yar’Adua had been known million people was without a captain at the helm. to suffer from kidney disease even as governor Yar’Adua had been elected president in April of Katsina. At the time of the Christmas bomb- 2007. He owed his position to the political ing attempt in the United States, the president had been absent for a month, receiving medical Richard Joseph is a professor of international history and treatment in Saudi Arabia, but had not transferred politics at Northwestern University. Alexandra Gillies is power to his vice president, . a research associate at the Revenue Watch Institute. They are coeditors of Smart Aid for African Development (Lynne Nigeria did not even have an ambassador to the Rienner, 2008). United States who could be summoned for con-

179 180 • CURRENT HISTORY • May 2010 sultations, since the US government had earlier Jonathan was declared acting president, a decision rejected the Nigerian designee. subsequently confirmed by the cabinet. On January 12, 2010, Yar’Adua, most likely Senior legislators found an ingenious way provoked by press reports of his dire physical con- around constitutional obstacles by citing a “doc- dition, granted a telephone interview to the BBC. trine of necessity,” never before invoked in He spoke in a weak voice of his intention to return Nigeria. The BBC interview with Yar’Adua, they to Nigeria as soon as his health permitted, but he claimed, fulfilled the constitutional requirement did not mention any transfer of authority. that a letter be transmitted to the National Nigeria’s 1999 constitution provides two Assembly, albeit via modern technology. Jonathan ways for power to be temporarily transferred therefore became acting president through an to the vice president. The simplest mode is the appointment process that deviated from the two transmission of a letter from the president to paths set forth in the constitution. One of his the National Assembly informing that body of first acts was to remove Aondoakaa from his his absence. The second requires the Federal ministry and from the commanding position he Executive Council (the cabinet) to appoint, had assumed during Yar’Adua’s absence. together with the Senate, a medical panel to “Goodluck Jonathan” could be a name invent- provide a report on the president. If he is found ed by whatever mischievous deities look over unable to execute his duties, the vice president is the Nigerian nation. He had the good luck to made acting president. Neither of these constitu- be deputy governor of the oil-rich tional paths was taken. Bayelsa in 2005, when the governor, Diepreye To adopt the term widely used in Nigeria, a Alamieyeseigha, was apprehended by the “cabal” that consisted of the president’s wife, Turai Metropolitan Police at Heathrow Airport with Yar’Adua, along with a few ministers and close suitcases filled with state money. (Tragicomically, political allies, worked to Alamieyeseigha skipped block a full transfer of power bail and returned to Nigeria to Vice President Jonathan. Poverty, conflict, and instability allegedly by disguising him- Meanwhile, throughout the self as a woman.) have been the bitter fruits of a eerie interregnum, Jonathan At that time, Obasanjo presided over cabinet meet- half-century of misrule. was using Nigeria’s anti- ings that made decisions corruption authorities to of questionable legality. prosecute governors who Bullying the cabinet and the nation during this crossed him, or crossed whatever line he inserted political parenthesis was the attorney general between the permissible and non-permissible and minister of justice, Michael Aondoakaa, who theft of public funds. Jonathan stepped in as gov- defended Yar’Adua’s authority and justified not ernor when Alamieyeseigha became the target of making Jonathan the officially acting president. one such prosecution. It was also fortuitous for These maneuvers alarmingly recalled the politi- Jonathan to be elevated to the vice presidency— cal gyrations that preceded Sani Abacha’s assump- Obasanjo orchestrated his selection as Yar’Adua’s tion of power in November 1993. Then, Moshood running mate in the 2007 election. Abiola, elected to the presidency in June of that In the early hours of February 24, 2010, year, was blocked from taking office and sub- Yar’Adua was hurriedly flown back to Nigeria by sequently imprisoned, eventually dying behind air ambulance. Six of his cabinet ministers had bars. This time, however, the armed forces did not arrived in Saudi Arabia earlier that day, osten- intervene, either by fully assuming power as they sibly to thank the Saudi government for look- had done several times, or by imposing a military- ing after him but really—as the third high-level civilian diarchy, as they did briefly in 1993. Nigerian delegation to visit that country during the crisis—in the hopes of seeing their ailing Back from the brink president. Jonathan was kept in the dark about February 9 and 10, 2010, may be remembered Yar’Adua’s precipitous return, which involved as the days when the Nigerian nation pulled the alarming deployment of a military brigade back from a precipice along which it had tottered in Abuja. for more than 11 weeks. Following unanimous For almost two days, Nigerians experienced votes in the Senate and House of Representatives, renewed uncertainty, especially since the first pub- Nigeria’s Season of Uncertainty • 181 lic statement by Yar’Adua’s spokesman referred to may, as did the infrequency of his public appear- Jonathan as vice, not acting, president. It seemed ances. Meetings with Yar’Adua became harder as if a fierce struggle over presidential author- for important individuals, both domestic and ity would erupt. American and British diplomats foreign, to secure. Even after the court upheld quickly released strong cautionary statements. his election, intrigue and incessant politicking Another announcement on behalf of the still persisted, generating a fin de régime atmosphere. unseen president, on February 26, acknowledged At his inauguration in May 2007, Yar’Adua had Jonathan as acting president and declared that all proposed a far-reaching “Seven-Point Agenda.” government officials should report to him. That After two and a half years of weak leadership, communication lessened but did not completely little progress has been made toward achieving disperse the constitutional cloud over Nigeria’s any of his objectives. federal institutions. It did, however, reduce the Atop the list of challenges that the president political tensions and anxiety. in 2007 committed to addressing is the coun- Nigeria’s season of uncertainty is likely to per- try’s eroded infrastructure, which constrains sist for some time. Crucial questions still await economic activity. Daily life for many Nigerians answers. Will the nation be given a full report on involves a grim pursuit of water, electricity, fuel, Yar’Adua’s medical status, and told if he can ever and transport. In 2007, Yar’Adua announced his resume the presidency? In the meantime, will intention to “declare an emergency” regarding Jonathan prove up to the task of managing the what Nigerians call the “epileptic” power sup- affairs of this complex and disputatious country? ply. He promised to increase the supply to 6,000 Also, will the northern political class accept a megawatts by the end of 2009, a paltry amount southern leader during what they consider their for such a large nation. (Power production in turn to hold the highest political office, according South , also considered insufficient, is sev- to Nigeria’s unwritten “rotational” principle? Will eral times as large.) Nigeria, whose international reputation has been Despite the government’s release of $10 billion severely damaged by the Abdulmutallab incident, in its foreign exchange reserves to fund improve- the bizarre events in Abuja and Saudi Arabia, ments in power infrastructure, available sup- and continuing intercommunal bloodletting in plies today languish at around 3,000 megawatts. , regain its political composure? And, Transportation projects, such as a long-promised most importantly, will this bewildered nation, as east-west highway from to , it prepares for its fiftieth anniversary on October and the revamping of a railway linking the two 1, 2010, make progress in addressing the long industrial sites in the north and south, unfinished agenda left behind by the tempestuous and Lagos, have failed to get off the drawing board. Obasanjo and the enfeebled Yar’Adua? Yar’Adua’s government initially halted several transportation and power sector projects com- A daunting agenda missioned by Obasanjo, questioning the ways in Following the chaotic 2007 elections, a num- which the contracts had been awarded. Yet alter- ber of losing candidates mounted legal challenges nate strategies have not emerged. In the power to the results. High courts, demonstrating their sector, progress requires coordination among sev- relative independence, overturned elections in eral entities, such as the ministry of power, the seven states, including some won by the rul- Power Holding Company of Nigeria, the Nigerian ing party. Appeals by two leading opponents National Corporation (NNPC), and pri- of Yar’Adua in the presidential election—Atiku vate businesses involved in gas production. Only Abubakar, Obasanjo’s estranged vice president, with strong and consistent leadership will the and , a former military ruler— requisite coordination occur. were heard by the Supreme Court. In December 2008 the court upheld Yar’Adua’s victory, despite Low on fuel a preponderance of electoral irregularities. In addition to his promise to increase power During the 20 months between the elections generation, Yar’Adua pledged to remove govern- and this ruling, uncertainty prevailed as the ment subsidies that push down the prices of Nigerian political elite considered the possibility petroleum products—subsidies that, according of annulled presidential voting. The president’s to the Financial Times, cost the country as much obviously declining health compounded the dis- as $11 billion from 2007 to 2009. Few dispute 182 • CURRENT HISTORY • May 2010 the punishing cost of the subsidies to the nation’s appointment, continued this trend. The allocation treasury, though their removal will cause hardship reportedly facilitated the strong support shown for road travelers and transporters. by the governors for his elevation to the acting Government-owned petroleum refineries pro- presidency. duce well below capacity despite large sums repeatedly allocated for their upkeep and refit- Alienation and violence ting. To make up for the resulting shortfall in In addition to economic challenges, Nigeria’s supplies, most petroleum products are imported. leaders must address widening socioeconomic However, like the refineries, these operations are fissures that can cause violent clashes. Conflicts riddled with mismanagement, inefficiency, and erupted between Muslim and Christian residents corruption. Private firms import fuel through of the city of Jos and its environs in Plateau state a system overseen by the NNPC, but significant in November 2008, and again in January and quantities of subsidized supplies are diverted to March 2010. Each of these violent episodes has the black market or smuggled to neighboring been fueled not just by religion and ethnicity but countries. also by disputes over citizenship rights, land use, The government officials and private interests and political power. that control these transactions profit handsomely In July 2009, a militant Islamic group called at the expense of the intended beneficiaries of the Boko Haram attacked government authorities, subsidies. Yar’Adua has characterized this system whose response included extrajudicial killings. as “the greatest institutional corruption in the his- In the past, public investigations into these sorts tory of the nation.” Yet it persists. Moreover, the of incidents have neither brought to justice those government often falls behind in paying the subsi- responsible nor advanced strategies for addressing dies’ costs, which results in paralyzing fuel short- underlying issues. Jonathan has promised greater ages. Despite these widely accountability for such trag- known shortcomings, the edies. Several police officers deregulation of this sector, So far, Jonathan has signaled have been arrested in rela- or some alternate solution, his intention to do more than tion to the use of excess force has not been advanced. steady the battered ship of state. in the Boko Haram affair. Along with these major Islamic extremism has infrastructural challenges, long existed in Nigeria, Nigeria’s economy has suf- alongside the country’s more fered from oil price volatility. For more than three moderate Muslim strains. Now—though the decades, the country has relied on petroleum Christmas Day terrorist, Abdulmutallab, who was exports for about 80 percent of government rev- largely educated abroad, was not directly affiliated enues and over 90 percent of export earnings. with any of these extremist groups—one can no To minimize the risks associated with oil price longer deny that deep economic hardship and fluctuations, Obasanjo and his economic reform profound frustration over a corrupt and unre- team—which was led by Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, sponsive political system have caused extrem- now director of the —created the ist ideas to resonate among the many alienated Excess Crude Account in 2003. The purpose of Muslims in northern Nigeria. the account was to encourage savings instead Violent conflict also persisted in the of spending during periods of high oil prices, a Delta during Yar’Adua’s tenure. In 2007 and 2008, stabilization measure that would make financial militant groups stepped up their kidnappings reserves available when oil prices dropped. and attacks on oil industry facilities. Oil bunker- Under Yar’Adua, however, the Excess Crude ing—the theft of oil from pipelines or export Account dwindled—despite an upward price terminals—continues to generate illicit funds that spike in 2008. A major reason for this was several finance the thuggish party politics of the region. multibillion-dollar allocations to state governors. Until the Nigerian military conducted a major The size and manner of these allocations reflect offensive in the spring of 2009, multiple efforts to how power has been dispersed from the center reduce bunkering and the role of armed militias in to the states since Obasanjo departed. A $2 bil- the Niger Delta region had had little impact. lion allocation from the Excess Crude Account The offensive was followed by a cease-fire to the governors by Jonathan, just days after his and amnesty in August 2009, amid plans for the Nigeria’s Season of Uncertainty • 183 demobilization and reintegration of combatants. the deep grievances in the delta and tamp down Militants broke the cease-fire during Yar’Adua’s the armed insurgency, while also overseeing fierce absence in Saudi Arabia. On becoming acting competition for state and federal offices in the president, Jonathan pledged to release funds region. Even modest achievements in tackling promised for the amnesty program and to tackle these perennial challenges would be applauded aggressively the region’s problems, the ramifica- after decades of failure. tions of which are now felt throughout the nation. Securing a lasting peace in the Niger Delta, The absent leader after decades of violence and disruptions of oil Weak leadership and uncertainty in Abuja production, will require more than short-term have led to the neglect not just of domestic issues payoffs for militia leaders and rank-and-file fight- but of international ones as well. Past Nigerian ers. Since Jonathan comes from this region, hopes presidents have adopted a leadership role in West are high that he will prove more decisive than his Africa. They acted to block armed insurgents in predecessors in achieving progress, although as and Sierra Leone. Obasanjo forced author- vice president he accomplished little. itarian interlopers in São Tomé and Principe and Reducing turmoil in the delta will require a in Togo to back down in 2003 and 2005. mix of strategies including political concessions, In 2009, Yar’Adua was serving a term as economic renewal, and effective but lawful use chairman of the Economic Community of West of force. It may also require foreign assistance, African States, whose mandate now includes which Jonathan has indicated he would con- tackling interstate and urgent intra-state prob- template accepting. Seeking outside help would lems. However, his frailty and insularity kept mark a significant departure from the attitude of Nigeria from responding to growing turmoil in all previous Nigerian governments. In any event, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and Niger. Yar’Adua did with the other enormous challenges confronting not intervene in 2009 when President Mamadou Nigeria’s accidental acting president, it is a daunt- Tandja in neighboring Niger ripped up that ing task for his administration to try to reduce country’s constitution, extended his tenure in

AFRICAN SECURITY African Security is a new journal dedicated to the exploration of fresh ap- proaches to understanding Africa’s conflicts and security concerns. Publish- ing quarterly, this journal investigates competing analytical approaches to understanding security while engaging in discussions of real world security issues in Africa. In particular, the journal seeks to investigate the myriad is- sues relating to conflict and security within and between African nations, not only from the more traditional approaches to security studies but also from more novel and innovative perspectives. Publication Details Editor Volume 3, 2010 James J. Hentz, PhD 4 issues per year Virginia Military Institute ISSN Print 1939-2206 [email protected] Email: ISSN Online 1939-2214 View an online sample! www.tandf.co.uk/journals/UAFS

COMING SOON! THE JOURNAL OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA Publication Details Editor Volume 1, 2010 • Biannual Taylor & Francis Dr. J. Peter Pham ISSN Print 2152-0844 Attn: Journals Customer Service James Madison University 325 Chestnut Street ISSN Online 2152-0852 Philadelphia, PA 19106 Tel: (800) 354-1420, press “4” Fax: (215) 625-8914 Visit the Routledge International Relations and Area Studies pages at [email protected] www.informaworld.com/politicsandir and www.informaworld.com/areastudies 184 • CURRENT HISTORY • May 2010 office, and had term limits on his rule abolished. their election efforts. Money, violence, fraud, And neither Yar’Adua nor the acting president and the manipulation of alliances usually deter- responded to a military coup that ousted Tandja mine who wins and retains “elected” positions in February 2010. in Nigeria. Nongovernmental actors, including In addition to neglecting turbulent regional media, professional associations, and civil society events, a Nigeria without firm leadership will be groups, have been agitating to move the country unable to capitalize on important opportunities to a more democratic path. So far, however, these afforded by its non-permanent seat on the United groups have lacked the capacity to counter the Nations Security Council. A healthy and assertive ruling elite’s determination to maintain the cur- president could use that post to reclaim for Nigeria rent, defective system. a leading role in African and global affairs, as is While central authority has weakened since now exercised by South Africa and other countries. Obasanjo’s departure, effective governance has been demonstrated in some cases at the state level, Fragile democracy where governors possess substantial authority Elections scheduled for April 2011, if they are and enjoy access to considerable outlays from the fair, relatively peaceful, and competitive, offer a federal treasury. Several governors have chosen to slender chance for a credible leader to emerge from use their political and financial resources to make the current political imbroglio. After committing economic and social progress. Their achieve- to electoral reform following the deplorable 2007 ments could spur residents of other states with contests, Yar’Adua equivocated over taking any underperforming governments to demand greater decisive action in this arena. Maurice Iwu, the accountability and improved services. Babatunde discredited head of the Independent National Fashola, the governor of , heads the list Electoral Commission, of reform governors and has remains in place; Jonathan’s received widespread praise anticipated appointment of For a harrowing three months, for his efforts to improve his successor will be wide- this country of approximately urban transportation and ly welcomed. Yar’Adua did waste collection systems, establish an electoral reform 150 million people was without attract investment, and committee in 2008, but the a captain at the helm. collect taxes in Lagos, the committee’s extensive recom- country’s largest city. mendations have yet to be Although reports of implemented. better governance issue from some states, this Election abuses during the Obasanjo years left a trend is still fragile. Even in Lagos, the corrupt trail of court cases and mandated reruns, such as and inefficient use of public funds continues. A for governor of , around which appeals reported rift between Fashola and his predeces- are pending. While the February 2010 reelection sor and “political godfather” threat- of opposition governor Peter Obi in the state of ens to derail Fashola’s remarkable achievements. Anambra suggested a possible respite from PDP Nevertheless, a performance ethos is emerging manipulation, the extremely poor organization among several governors. So also are expectations of the election and very low turnout demonstrate that the current set of state executives should out- that Nigeria has yet to reverse the continued perform their predecessors. If elections became decline of its democratic electoral institutions. more democratic, and the exercise of power more A weak electoral system is just one of the bar- transparent, performance could continue to sur- riers blocking the ascension of Nigerian leaders pass the admittedly low standards of the past. who can effectively and responsibly serve the public interest. Much of the process by which key Glimmers of reform officials are selected takes place within the PDP. Within the federal government, the record of Governors and legislators who have gained signif- a few senior officials shows what Yar’Adua could icant power under Yar’Adua will want to maintain have accomplished had he been healthier and their positions, and have little interest in leveling more assertive. Lamido Sanusi, on his appoint- the electoral playing field. ment to the central bank in June 2009, immediate- Opposition parties, on the other hand, invigo- ly tackled problems in a banking sector that had rated by the turbulence in Abuja, will ramp up nearly collapsed following a spree of irresponsible Nigeria’s Season of Uncertainty • 185 lending, insider trading, and other manipulations. storm in Abuja subsides, high on the country’s In moves that targeted some of Nigeria’s most unfinished agenda will be the effort to bring this influential citizens, he called for the removal of important reform exercise to a successful conclu- several bank chief executives and published a list sion. of Nigerian companies that had not repaid their debts. Politics without progress Sanusi frequently mentioned the president’s sup- Nigerian politicians engage incessantly in com- port for his bold approach, and he was apparently plex maneuvers to win and retain their positions. not blocked by those who lost out during these This practice has reached a new climax in the reforms. A few other officials took decisive action leadership crisis that the country has recently from within the administration. For example, a endured. From street protests to myriad meetings new head of the civil service, Steve Oronsaye, has among political and civic leaders, the drama has insisted on computer literacy, merit-based stan- drawn in a cast of thousands. In the wings, the dards for appointment and promotion, and tenure president’s wife moved players about, including limits for top officials. the unseen and disabled Yar’Adua. And now, three Another effort at reform is the Petroleum years after Nigerians gave the largely unknown Industry Bill, an ambitious piece of legislation Yar’Adua the benefit of the doubt despite his dis- that would restructure the governance of Nigeria’s puted electoral victory, their hopes again rest with oil sector. The NNPC earns little money for the an untested leader. government, produces a negligible portion of the The Economist responded soberly to Jonathan’s country’s oil, and has assumed roles for which it assumption of power: “Mr. Jonathan is taking is not suited. Its control over policy making and over the leadership of one of the world’s least regulatory functions creates conflicts of interest governable countries in the least promising cir- and bureaucratic bottlenecks that erode the sec- cumstances.” His tenure may yet turn out to be tor’s profitability. another display of Nigeria’s Sisyphean politics, Unlike the successful national oil companies of in which the stone of good intentions periodi- countries such as Brazil, Malaysia, and, increas- cally comes careening down the hill, crushing at ingly, Angola, the NNPC functions more like a the bottom the hopes of the country’s distressed government agency subject to the whims of those population. holding political power. The Petroleum Industry Indeed, poverty, conflict, and instability have Bill seeks to address these shortcomings, in part been the bitter fruits of a half-century of misrule. by restructuring the government agencies that If Nigeria’s ruling elite muddles through the cur- participate in the oil sector. rent crisis only to resume the familiar pattern of Although Yar’Adua and the cabinet approved contentious politics without progress, two things this reform proposal and submitted it to the are certain: The country’s international prestige National Assembly in December 2008, it has failed will continue to erode, and so will the security and to advance beyond this stage. Part of the holdup quality of life of Nigeria’s people. is that the bill seeks to increase the government’s So far, however, Jonathan has signaled his earnings relative to its private company partners. intention to do more than steady the battered Not surprisingly, this has attracted significant ship of state. And the dissolution of the cabi- resistance from international oil companies whose net on March 17, following the appointment of executives argue that the terms of the bill would the veteran military insider Aliyu Muhammed render their Nigerian operations commercially as national security adviser, has enhanced unviable. Jonathan’s control of the federal executive. Such tussles are common in the oil business Nigeria has been deprived of honest, effective, and are usually resolved through negotiation. But and constitutional leadership for so long that, the ongoing political uncertainty in the country should Jonathan choose that course, he will have has been very damaging to such a complex, vital, a great store of domestic and international good- and sensitive reform. If and when the political will on which to draw. ■