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The Next Decade of Digital

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The Next Decade of Digital The Next Decade of Digital Strategic Responses to Technology Disruption Dr Stefan Hajkowicz www.csiro.au The Next Decade of Digital Strategic Responses to Technology Disruption 2. Automate 4. Navigate 6. Mitigate 1. Accelerate 8. Cogitate 3. Differentiate 7. Gravitate 5. Innovate 1. Accelerate Speed up technology development, adoption and adaptation Data Volumes And we’d need another 1800 75m to show you the 1600 Terabytes of data downloaded using 2025 forecast. 1400 fixed line broadband 1200 1000 800 600 Thousand Terabytes Thousand 400 According to IBM The world creates 2.5 200 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the 0 data was made in the last 2 years. Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 Computing Speed 1600 And then there’s quantum computing which could be 1400 10,000 times faster … Moore’s Law – Number of 1200 transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost 1000 every 1.5 years 800 600 Transistors(millions) 400 200 Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by 0 Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually works. But maybe soon? 1971 1974 1982 1989 1995 1999 2003 2008 2012 The Internet of Things Metcalfe's Law Value of a network = n2 2006 2015 2020 2 Billion Devices 15 Billion Devices 200 Billion Devices 225 times more 40,000 times functionality more functionality Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what day is the pond completely covered? Image:7 Pixabay| Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson Frog Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered. realises what’s happening 600,000 & tries to respond 100% Coverage 500,000 400,000 Frog Suspects 300,000 Something Happening 50% Coverage 200,000 Frog Doesn’t Know Pond Coverage (Square Metres) (Square Coverage Pond 100,000 Anything is Happening Yet 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 8 | Image: Pixabay 2. Automate Use robots for rules-based, repetitive and routine tasks and extend the reach of artificial intelligence. 9 | Automation and Artificial Intelligence IBM’s Watson Google’s Driverless Car Source: IBM, Google The Reach of Robotics Source: Wired Magazine Wall-Ye VIN Robot Image Source: AFP Towards Emotionally Intelligent Machines? CSIRO’S “WE FEEL” EMOTIENT BIOSENSORS SOFTWARE Unclassified Surprise Fear Anger Sadness Love Joy 19,068 Emotional Tweets in 14 Hours from Brisbane Source: CSIRO, Emotient Task Automation and Job Replacement “More than 5 million Aussie Jobs [40% of workforce] gone in 10-15 years” - CEDA Report, Australia’s Future Workforce, 2015 “By one popular estimate 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist” - World Economic Forum, The Future of Jobs and Skills, 2016 3. Differentiate Learn to race with the machine (not against it); understand your niche in a connected business ecosystem Otonaroid robot with real person displayed at Miraikan Science Museum in Tokyo. Photo: Miraikan sourced via News Robitics What Jobs do People Get? Research Finds that 40% - 50% of all Australian Jobs Will Be Replaced by Computers and Robots in the Coming 10-20 Years. So What do people do… After seven years Robots don’t do unstructured. of effort by But we can also change the scientists from supply chain… UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in … 20 mins. Image source: Su-Star The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube Photographers Versus Lab Staff 14 Australian Photographic Industry 12 10 8 6 4 Employment ('000s) Employment Photographers 2 Developers/printers 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Data Source: ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics. Digital enables fewer employees to generate greater market value Company Employees Market Cap Market Cap Per Employee Walmart 2.2 million $265 billion $120,000 Amazon 154,100 $173 billion $1.1 million Facebook 9,199 $202 billion $22 million Instagram (at sale) 13 $1 billion $80 million Nov 2016 Two Perspectives … on equality of opportunity in tomorrow’s digital economy … Joseph Stiglitz Tyler Cowen The Average is Over The Cost of Inequality Image: Youtube, Big Think Image: Time Magazine, Mark Mahaney/Redux 18 | 4. Navigate Explore and map new economic territory, learn the new hard and soft rules Ronald Coase Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia. The New Platform Economies GLG New Uber Drivers in the United States A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016 22 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson Emerging Economies in Transition Transition in the Chinese Economy 60 50 40 30 20 Industry 10 Services Percent of Value Add to the Economy the to Add Value of Percent Agriculture 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: World Bank Indicators 5. Innovate Rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational hierarchy 140 Coal Price US$ per tonne 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 200 Iron Ore Price US$ per tonne 150 100 50 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Wikimedia25 | Commons, Stephen Codrington. Planet Geography 3rd Edition. Flickr, Graeme Churchard. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data Twenty Years of Productivity in Australia Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics “…In the long term 106 it’s everything” 104 102 - Paul Krugman, Nobel 100 Prize Laurate, Economics 98 96 Productivity Index Productivity 94 92 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger. The Innovator’s Dilemma World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen 27 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson Lean & Agile Innovation Fail Fast, Test Often and Keep Trying Build Design Build Design Build Design CYCLE 1 CYCLE 2 CYCLE 3 Test Idea Test Idea Test Idea refine refine refine Small teams that can be fed on 2 (large) pizzas Image source (pizza): Wikimedia, Creative Commons, Jakob Dettner & Rainer Zenz 6. Mitigate Manage the downsides of digital for customers, staff and society 29 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson Cybercrime – The Untamed Tiger in the Room 5 million Australians fell victim to cybercrime last year Out of every 10 Australians 6 have been a victim of cybercrime Of all victims 46 percent experienced a cybercrime incident in the past 12 months In 2013 A$1.06 billion was stolen from Australian citizens in cybercrime events The average financial loss per victim in 2013 was A$201 Australian Institute of Criminology . Information Overload and Digital Exhaustion 31 | Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 7. Gravitate Understand and focus on experiences your customers or community seek The Experience Economy 2.0 Is it really just C8H10N4O2 ? 8. Cogitate Free-up time and resources to think deeply, revisit issues and choose wisely Working Smarter (Not Just Harder) A high tech digitally enabled economy rewards intelligence more than brute force 100 Norway R2 = 0.65 80 Sweden 60 Australia 40 Stockholm, Pixabay Experiments in Sweden, reducing the work week from 8 20 to 6 hours tested by: Hour Worked, Current Prices) Current Worked, Hour • Svartedalens elderly care home Labour Productivity (USD of GDP Per Per GDP of (USD Productivity Labour 0 • Internet startup, Brath • Filimundus App Developer 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 • Stockholm city council Average Hours Worked Per Person Per Week • Toyota service centre in Gothenburg Data Source: OECD Statistics, Labour productivity levels in the total economy, Data for 34 OECD Countries The Power of Daydreaming The Power of Daydreaming In 1990 J.K. Rowling decided to daydream (not work) on a delayed train journey from Manchester to London. She started writing at Clapham Junction … Glenfinnan viaduct, Scotland, United Kingdom – And The Hogwarts Express by JK Rowling Thank you Data 61 Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Research Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e [email protected] www.csiro.au.
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