International Workshop on Urban Energy and Carbon Modeling, February 5-6, 2008, AIT Centre, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

ComparisonComparison ofof urbanurban energyenergy useuse andand carboncarbon emissionemission inin Tokyo,Tokyo, Beijing,Beijing, SeoulSeoul andand ShanghaiShanghai

Shinji Kaneko, Hiroshima University Shobhakar Dhakal, Global Carbon Project Goals through comparative study

„ To understand dynamic relationships among urbanization, economic development, industrial structure changes, total direct CO2 emissions and indirect CO2 emissions.

„ To distinguish unintentional factors such as income effects, economic structure effects accompanied by urban development process from the intentional factors which try to utilize the advantages of cities (concentration, economy of scale, economy of agglomeration). Contents

„ Urbanization and direct per capita CO2 emission – Cities and CO2 emissions – Economic development, urbanization and per capita CO2 emission „ Urban development process and energy, CO2 in Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai – Flying geese pattern of development – Economic structure and external dependency – Energy structure „ Embodied CO2 emissions – Carbon budget analysis (Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai) – Regional comparisons in Japan – Future works Gap of per capita CO2 between city and country

14.0 14.0 14.0 Tokyo Seoul Beijing and Shanghai

12.0 12.0 12.0

10.0 10.0 10.0 ) ) )

8.0 8.0 8.0

6.0 6.0 6.0 Per capitaCO2 emission(t-CO2/person Per capita CO2 emission (t-CO2/person emission CO2 capita Per Per capita CO2 emission(t-CO2/person

4.0 4.0 4.0

2.0 2.0 2.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Tokyo Japan(CDIAC) Japan Seoul Korea Beijing Shanghai China(CDIAC) China City and CO2 emission 90% 2030 „ Urbanizing world 80% 2005 – World: 32.75% (1960) => 48.77% (2005) => 60% 70% (2030) 1960 60% – Developing East Asia and the Pacific: 16.76% (1960) => 50% 41.45% (2005) 40% „ If per capita CO2 emission in cities is twice larger than that in 30% Beijing

national average, then cities CO2 emissions total to contribution Urban 20% contributes 66% of CO2 emissions Shanghai under current level of 10% urbanization. Tokyo 0% Seoul „ Better understanding of the gap 012345 in per capita CO2 between city Gap of per capita CO2 between urban and national and national would be good start to have overall contribution of Urbanization1960 (32.75%) Urbanization2005 (48.77%) cities to global carbon emissions. Urbanization2030 (59.92%) Urbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emission

Dependent Variable: CO2 emission (metric tons per capita)

Independent Variable: Urban population (% of total) Manufacture, value added (% of GDP) GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)

Period: 1960-2006 Countries: 163 countries Observations: 3,396 Data Sources: World Development Indicator 2007 Model: Random Effect Tobit Regression model Urbanization, GDP and per capita CO2 emission By eliminating lower income countries and refining the sample with higher income countries, elasticity of urbanization to per capita CO2 emission changes. In the range of per capita GDP between 21,000 and 22,000, the elasticity turns to be negative.

0.6 4000

0.4 3500

0.2 3000

0 2500

-0.2 2000

-0.4 1500 Urbanization, Elasticities Urbanization, -0.6 1000 observations of Number

-0.8 500

-1 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Lowe limit of GDP per capita (constant 2000 international $)

Urbanization, Parameters elasticities GRDP 2004 billion 2000 $, PPP billion 2000 $, exchange Tokyo 625 879 Seoul 213 143 Beijing 191 46 Shanghai 332 80 Total 1,360 1,148 GDP Brazil (9, 10) 1,362 655 Italy (8, 7) 1,488 1,133 France (7, 6) 1,626 1,413 Seoul

Beijing

Shanghai Tokyo Urban development pattern of East Asian mega-cities (Passenger vehicle ownership)

million unit person per unit 4.0 1,000,000 Tokyo Olympic (1964) Seoul Olympic (1988) Beijing Olympic (2008)

3.5 100,000 Shanghai Expo (2010) 3.0

10,000 2.5

2.0 1,000

1.5 100

1.0

10 0.5

0.0 1 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 person per unit(Tokyo2) person per unit(Seoul) person per unit(Beijing) person per unit(Shanghai) Tokyo(2) Seoul Beijing Shanghai 1,600 1,600 Beijing Final Energy Tokyo 1,400 1,400 Consumption 1,200 1,200 1990-2004 1,000 1,000 800 800

600 600 FinalEnergy Consumption (PJ) 400 Final Energy Consumption (PJ) 400

200 200

0 0

90 02 2 0 992 004 90 9 0 19 1 1994 1996 1998 2000 20 2 19 19 1994 1996 1998 20 2002 2004

Coal products Petroleum products Coal products Petroleum products Electricity Gas and Others Electricity Gas and Others

1,600 1,600 Seoul Shanghai 1,400 1,400 Coal products 1,200 1,200

Petroleum products 1,000 1,000

Electricity 800 800 Gas and others 600 600 Final Energy Consumption (PJ) 400 Final Energy Consumption (PJ) 400

200 200

0 0

90 92 96 00 02 04 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 19 19 1994 19 1998 20 20 20

Coal products Petroleum products Coal products Petroleum products Electricity Gas and Others Electricity Gas and Others Phase of economic development and industrial transformation

GDP/GRP Growth Industrial Structure Change

16.0% 90%

14.0% 80%

70% 12.0%

60%

10.0% ) ) 50% 8.0% 40%

6.0% (% Share Industrial 30% Economic growth rate (% rate growth Economic 4.0% 20%

2.0% 10%

0.0% 0% 1961- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 1961- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 -2.0%

China growht ratio Beijing Growth ratio Shanghai Growth Beijing_Industry Beijing_Service Shanghai_Industry Japan growth ratio Tokyo growth ratio Shanghai_Service Tokyo_Industry Tokyo_Service Consumption vs Investment

Share of Private Final Consumption Share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1.0 0.6

China China 0.9 Japan Japan Beijing Beijing 0.5 Shanghai 0.8 Shanghai Tokyo Tokyo Korea Korea 0.7 0.4

0.6

0.5 0.3

0.4

0.2 0.3

0.2 0.1

0.1

0.0 0.0 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Economic external dependency

Import/Domestic Demand Export/Total Production 0.5 50%

0.4 45%

40% 0.4

35% 0.3 30% 0.3 25% 0.2 20%

0.2 15%

0.1 10%

0.1 5%

0.0 0% 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 China Japan Beijing Tokyo Shanghai China Japan Beijing Tokyo Shanghai CO2 emissions from Tokyo, Beijing, Seoul and Shanghai

200.0 200.0 200.0 Tokyo Seoul Beijing and Shanghai 180.0 180.0 180.0

160.0 160.0 160.0

140.0 140.0 140.0

120.0 120.0 2 120.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 CO2 emission (million t-CO2) (million emission CO2 80.0 t-CO2) (million emission CO2 80.0 80.0 CO2emission (million t-CO

60.0 60.0 60.0

40.0 40.0 40.0

20.0 20.0 20.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Tokyo Seoul Shanghai Beijing Methodology: carbon footprint analysis with regional input- output energy model

World Capital Stock Embodied energy in import for capital formation Country Production Embodied energy in Embodied energy City import of intermediate in Export products

Import Export Embodied energy in import for final consumption

Consumers

Imported products Energy supply Local products from the earth

Industry 3 Industry n-2 Industry 2 Industry n-1 Industry 1 • Embodied energy and embodied CO2 emissions Industry n • Indirect energy and CO2 emissions n Industry j n ε X ∑ iij ∑ε j X ji i=1 i=1

n εεjQXjjji− ∑ E j i=1 CO2 Balance, million t-CO2 (1)

4,500 „ Japan 85-90-95 Embodied CO2 in export 4,000

3,500 Embodied CO2 in capital formation „ Carbon footprint 3,000 Embodied CO2 in final consumption – 1.63 (1985) 2,500

2,000 – 1.60 (1990) Embodied CO2 in imported products – 1,500 – 1.51 (1995) Embodied CO2 in imported products 1,000

500 CO2 in energy supply 0 Japan inflow Japan inflow Japan inflow Japan Japan Japan (1985) (1990) (1995) outflow outflow outflow (1985) (1990) (1995) „ China 92-97 4,500 4,000 Embodied CO2 in export „ Carbon footprint 3,500 Embodied CO2 in capital formation – 1.09 (1992) 3,000 Embodied CO2 in final consumption 2,500 – 1.23 (1997)

2,000 Embodied CO2 in imported products 1,500 Embodied CO2 in imported products 1,000

500 CO2 in energy supply 0 China inflow China inflow China China (1992) (1997) outflow outflow (1992) (1997) CO2 Balance, million t-CO2 (2)

300 Embodied CO2 in export 250 „ Tokyo 85-90-95 Embodied CO2 in capital formation 200 „ Carbon footprint Embodied CO2 in final consumption 150 – 5.81 (1985) Embodied CO2 in imported products 100 – 6.55 (1990) Embodied CO2 in imported products 50 – 4.44 (1995) CO2 in energy supply 0 Tokyo inflow Tokyo inflow Tokyo inflow Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo (1985) (1990) (1995) outflow outflow outflow (1985) (1990) (1995)

300 Embodied CO2 in export „ Beijing 92-97 250 Embodied CO2 in capital formation „ Carbon footprint 200 Embodied CO2 in final consumption – 1.95 (1992) 150 Embodied CO2 in imported products – 1.99 (1997) 100 Embodied CO2 in imported products

50 CO2 in energy supply

0 Beijing Beijing Beijing Beijing inflow (1992) inflow (1997) outflow outflow (1992) (1997) CO2 Balance, million t-CO2 (3)

40

Embodied CO2 in export 35 „ Fukuoka 85-90-95 30 Embodied CO2 in capital formation „ Carbon footprint 25 Embodied CO2 in final consumption – 3.65 (1985) 20 Embodied CO2 in imported products – 3.16 (1990) 15 – 3.16 (1990)

10 Embodied CO2 in imported products – 3.21 (1995)

5 CO2 in energy supply 0 Fukuoka Fukuoka Fukuoka Fukuoka Fukuoka Fukuoka inflow (1985) inflow (1990) inflow (1995) outflow outflow outflow (1985) (1990) (1995)

40 „ Kitakyushu 85-90- Embodied CO2 in export 35 95 30 Embodied CO2 in capital formation „ Carbon footprint 25 Embodied CO2 in final consumption 20 – 1.43 (1985) Embodied CO2 in imported products 15 – 1.71 (1990) 10 Embodied CO2 in imported products – 1.71 (1995) 5 CO2 in energy supply 0 Kitakyushu Kitakyushu Kitakyushu Kitakyushu Kitakyushu Kitakyushu inflow (1985) inflow (1990) inflow (1995) outflow outflow outflow (1985) (1990) (1995) CO2 emission (2000)

(million t-CO2) 60 40 20 10

n.a.

Direct CO2 emission Indirect CO2 emission CO2 emission per capita (2000)

(t-CO2/capita) 16 12 8 4

n.a.

Direct CO2 emission per capita Indirect CO2 emission per capita Comparison of annual growth rate from 1990 to 2000

(%) 4 2 1 0 -2

n.a.

Direct CO emission 2 Indirect CO2 emission Net virtual inflow of carbon

Indirect - Export CO 2 emission (2000)

(million t-CO2) 20 0 -20 -40 Indirect and Export CO 2 Emission per Direct CO2 (2000)

3.2 2.4 1.6 0.8

n.a.

Indirect / Direct CO2 Emission Export / Direct CO2 Emission (Direct + Indirect) CO2 emission per capita (2000)

(t-CO2/capita) 20 15 10

n.a. (Direct + Indirect - Export) CO 2 emission (2000)

(million t-CO2) 40 20 10 0 -10

n.a. Concluding remarks

„ Gap of per capita CO2 between city and national average vary from city to city, to have better understanding some distribution pattern of the gaps across different scale and income level of cities would help to understand overall urban contribution to global carbon emissions. „ With higher income group, urbanization would positively contribute to improve per capita CO2 emission at the country, while urbanization in middle income countries would negatively contribute. „ Industrial structure and its changes are one of the dominant factors to determine the level and changes of both total CO2 emissions of cities, directly and indirectly. „ In order to evaluate the real performance of cities’ climate mitigation policies, we need study more on the contributions of unintentional factors.