Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research FUNDING A REVOLUTION GOVERNMENT SUPPORT FOR COMPUTING RESEARCH Committee on Innovations in Computing and Communications: Lessons from History Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1999 Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the fur- therance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achieve- ments of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsi- bility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien- tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under grant EIA-9529482. Additional support was provided by the Association for Computing Machin- ery and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers’ Computer Society. Any opin- ions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-88131 International Standard Book Number 0-309-06278-0 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press (http://www.nap.edu) 2101 Constitution Ave., NW, Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research COMMITTEE ON INNOVATIONS IN COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATIONS: LESSONS FROM HISTORY THOMAS HUGHES, University of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair GWEN BELL, The Computer Museum ERICH BLOCH, Council on Competitiveness ROBERT BRESSLER, Sun Microsystems, Inc. PAUL DAVID, Oxford University and Stanford University MARVIN DENICOFF, Office of Naval Research (retired) DAVID HOUNSHELL, Carnegie Mellon University AMOS E. JOEL, JR., Lucent Technologies, Inc. (retired) TIMOTHY LENOIR, Stanford University DOUGLAS McILROY, Dartmouth College EMERSON PUGH, IBM Corporation (retired) CHARLES SEITZ, Myricom Corporation CHARLES THACKER, Microsoft Corporation Special Advisor DANIEL J. KEVLES, California Institute of Technology Staff JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Senior Program Officer (study director after February 1997) MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director (study director through February 1997) DAVID MINDELL, CSTB Consultant JED GORDON, Research Aide LESLIE M. WADE, Research Assistant (through March 1997) DAVID PADGHAM, Project Assistant (starting August 1998) MICKELLE RODGERS, Project Assistant (through August 1998) SYNOD P. BOYD, Project Assistant (through December 1997) iii Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair FRANCES E. ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center JAMES CHIDDIX, Time Warner Cable JEFF DOZIER, University of California at Santa Barbara A.G. (SANDY) FRASER, AT&T Corporation SUSAN L. GRAHAM, University of California at Berkeley JAMES GRAY, Microsoft Corporation BARBARA J. GROSZ, Harvard University PATRICK HANRAHAN, Stanford University JUDITH HEMPEL, University of California at San Francisco DEBORAH A. JOSEPH, University of Wisconsin BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation EDWARD D. LAZOWSKA, University of Washington DAVID LIDDLE, Interval Research BARBARA H. LISKOV, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN MAJOR, QUALCOMM Incorporated DAVID G. MESSERSCHMITT, University of California at Berkeley DONALD NORMAN, Nielsen Norman Group RAYMOND OZZIE, Groove Networks DONALD SIMBORG, KnowMed Systems LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation Staff MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director JANE BORTNICK GRIFFITH, Interim Director, 1998 HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Scientist JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Senior Program Officer ALAN INOUYE, Program Officer JON EISENBERG, Program Officer JANET BRISCOE, Administrative Associate NICCI DOWD, Project Assistant RITA GASKINS, Project Assistant DAVID PADGHAM, Project Assistant iv Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS PETER M. BANKS, ERIM International, Inc., Co-chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania MARSHALL H. COHEN, California Institute of Technology RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara JERRY P. GOLLUB, Haverford College MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University JOHN L. HENNESSY, Stanford University CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc. KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN R. KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania M. ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL, Stanford University NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory CHANG-LIN TIEN, University of California at Berkeley NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director v Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Funding a Revolution: Government Support for Computing Research Preface Computing technology is widely touted as fast moving. Generations of products and their underlying electronics are introduced at intervals of 18 to 24 months, and the number and variety of computer- and communi- cations-based goods and services are growing. Technology and industry experts believe that the double-digit rates of improvement experienced in the last couple of decades can be sustained for computer-based technolo- gies over at least another decade if appropriate investments are made, but it is not clear what those investments should be and on what they depend. Similarly, there is little understanding of how to relate a seemingly strong and steady flow of new technology to the slower and more diffuse pro- cesses of assimilating new technology into the economy. As described in Evolving the High-Performance Computing and Commu- nications Initiative to Support the Nation’s Information Infrastructure, also known as the Brooks-Sutherland report,1 part of the reason for the tre- mendous advances in information technology since World War II has been the extraordinarily productive interplay of federally funded univer- sity research, federally and privately funded industrial research, and en- trepreneurial