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Situation Analysis SITUATION TAJIKISTAN ANALYSIS EARTHQUAKE 7 DECEMBER 2015 Initial Report - 8 December 2015 SITUATION OVERVIEW An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.21 occurred in Rush- The location of the 7.2 M earthquake is approximately on district of Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast in 10-20 km from Sarez Lake and Usoi Dam in Tajikistan. Af- Tajikistan, at 07:50 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), or ter this earthquake, four aftershocks have been recorded 12:50 Tajikistan Local Time on 7 December, 2015. near the lake. The earthquake’s epicenter was located 109 kilometers The Usoi dam was formed by an earthquake in 1911. Ac- (68 miles) west of Murghob, 133 kilometers (83 miles) cording to a report by the United Nations Office for Dis- northeast of Khorugh and 349 kilometers (217 miles) east aster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), the dam is unstable and of Dushanbe in Tajikistan. poses a potential risk in the event of earthquakes. The four aftershocks in the immediate area indicate a risk of So far 14 aftershocks2 have been recorded on Monday an outburst of the Usoi dam and subsequent flooding of 7 December and Tuesday 8 December, including 13 in lake Sarez. Tajikistan, ranging from 4.5 to 5.4 magnitude on Richter scale. One aftershock has been recorded in Krygyzstan, Several unconfirmed reports indicate damages to house- of 5.5 M, which was centered 29 kilometers (18 miles) holds in the communities living near the epicenter. Ac- south-southeast of Chayek at 08:30 UTC. cording to the Government of Tajikistan, at least two per- son were trapped and killed under rock-falls. 1 USGS M7.2 - 105km W of Murghob, Tajikistan 2 USGS 7 December 2015 Earthquake Summary 3 United Nations report on Usoi landslide dam and Sarez Lake TAJIKISTAN EARTHQUAKES 7 DECEMBER RICHTER SCALE 8.9 Great Largest Recorded 8.0 Major Great Devastation Khujand 7.0 Strong Many Fatalities Possible 6.0 5.0 Moderate UZBEKISTAN Small Damages Begin 4.0 Fatalities Rare KYRGYZSTAN Minor 2.0 SUGHD Not Felt CHINA 0.0 DISTRICTS OF 4.5 M REPUBLICAN SUBORDINATION Time 4.5 M 18:54 4.5 4.5 M 17:51 4.8 M 5.4 M Dushanbe 4.8 M 15:23 4.8 4.8 M 7.2 M 4.5 M 4.9 M 14:27 07.12.2015 07:50 UTC 4.6M 13:51 TAJIKISTAN 4.7M 13:50 4.8 M 4.6M 11:48 Sarez Lake 4.9 KHATLON 10:34 GORNO-BADAKHSHAN 10:04 5.4 Qurghonteppa 09:24 08:55 08:30 Khorugh 5.5 08:24 4.8 07:50 7.2 LEGEND 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Richter Scale Major Earthquake Aftershocks AFGHANISTAN Eects may vary greatly due to construction practices, Major City PAKISTAN population density,soil depth, focal depth etc. Capital 7 December 2015 Sources: OCHA, USGS Email: [email protected] INDIA This map illustrates the ground shake map as Earthquake Production Date: 07/12/2015 published by USGS. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the Version 1.0 field. Please send ground feedback to UNITAR / Activation Number: UNOSAT. !% ! CE20120813TJK 67°0'0"E 68°0'0"E 69°0'0"E 70°0'0"E 71°0'0"E 72°0'0"E 73°0'0"E 74°0'0"E 75°0'0"E 76°0'0"E UZBEKISTAN ¥¦¬Bishkek ¥¦¬Tashkent Dushanbe CHIRCHIQ ¥¦¬ CHINA S y r ¥¦¬ D a r y a F Kabul YANIYUL Map Extent ¥¦¬ Islamabad 41°0'0"N D a rS y y a r ¥¦¬ ANGREN LEGEND OLMALIQ CUST NAMANGAN JALALABAD 41°0'0"N ANDIZHAN SAHRIHAN ¥¦¬ Capital GULISTON QUQON OSH Province Capital MARGILON ¥¦¬ FARGONA !( Settlement Inside Strong/Very Strong Shake Area DJIZAK BEKOBOD ¥¦¬ Fergana ") Town/City 40°0'0"N CHAUVAY International Border URATJUBE Major Rivers SAMARQAND 40°0'0"N Province Boundary District Boundary Artux Kashi SAHRISABZ Map Scale for A3: 1:2,500,000 I! Km 39°0'0"N 0 10 20 40 60 80 100 Density population data: WorldPop 39°0'0"N Road Data : Google Map Maker / OSM / ESRI Other Data: USGS, UNCS, NASA, NGA, OCHA Muzkol Analysis : UNITAR / UNOSAT !( Production: UNITAR / UNOSAT Analysis conducted with ArcGIS v10.3 Coordinate System: WGS 1984 UTM Zone 43N DENAU Projection: Transverse Mercator Kudara A Ubagn !( Datum: WGS 1984 D m Units: Meter a !( r Roshorv Nisur u !( y The depiction and use of boundaries, geographic a names and related data shown here are not warranted 38°0'0"N O Darzhomch!( !( !(Bardara Madiyan to be error-free nor do they imply official endorsement M 7.2 - Depth: or acceptance by the United Nations. UNOSAT is a program of the United Nations Institute for Training and KULAB 26 Km -07:50:06 Research (UNITAR), providing satellite imagery and ¥¦¬ related geographic information, research and analysis UTC, Tajikistan 38°0'0"N to UN humanitarian and development agencies and Andarv their implementing partners. Miyonshakhr !( !( !(!( !( Bulunkul' Vankala Shazud!(!( !( This work by UNITAR/UNOSAT is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Tagarkaki!( TERMIZ ¥¦¬ A m u D a r y a FAYZABAD 37°0'0"N MAZARESARIF KHOLM QUNDUZ 37°0'0"N HANABAD Contact Information: [email protected] 24/7 Hotline: +41 76 487 4998 68°0'0"E 69°0'0"E 70°0'0"E 71°0'0"E 72°0'0"E 73°0'0"E 74°0'0"E 75°0'0"E 76°0'0"E www.unitar.org/unosat SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) 8 December 2015 Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015 SCOPE AND SCALE Based on geospatial analysis4 using the Modified Mer- In the 4 provinces of Tajikistan, 28 districts were ex- calli Intensity Scale, 1.44 million people were exposed posed to light to severe earthquake shaking. There are to light to severe earthquake shaking. 5 districts in Gorno-Badakhshan province which may have suffered light to moderate/heavy damages. Out of the total exposed population, there are 33,479 people potentially affected by Strong to Severe earth- These 5 districts should be priortised for assessment, quake shaking, who may require assistance due to light response and rescue activities. to moderate/heavy damage to buildings. 1.44 Million 33,479 People Exposed to People may have suffered Light to Earthquake in Tajikistan Moderate/Heavy damage due to earthquake in Tajikistan 1.13 Million 279,294 26,170 7,242 67 People Exposed to People Exposed to People Exposed to People Exposed to People Exposed to Light (IV) Earthquake Moderate (V) Earthquake Strong (VI) Earthquake Very Strong (VII) Earth- Severe (VIII) Earthquake Shakingin Tajikistan Shaking inTajikistan Shakng inTajikistan quake Shakng inTajiki- Shakng inTajikistan stan MODIFIED MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE PERCEIVED SHAKING Not Felt Weak Ligh Moderate Strong Very Strong Severe Voilent Extreme POTENTIAL DAMAGE None None None Very light Light Moderate Moderate/Heavy Heavy Very Heavy PEAK ACC. (%g) <17 .17-1.4 1.4-3.9 3.9-9.2 9.2-18 18-34 34-65 65-124 >124 PEAK VEL (cm/s) <0.1 0.1-1.1 1.1-3.4 3.4-8.1 8.1-16 16-31 31-60 60-116 >116 INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY I II-III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+ DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE DISTRICTS IN MMI SCALE STRONG 9.2 18 %G VERY STRONG 18 34 %G SEVERE 34 65 %G POPULATION EXPOSURE 26,170 7,242 67 Vanj Vanj Rushan Murghab Rushan Murghab Rushan Murghab Shugnan Shugnan Roshtqala 3 2 500 10 14 school buildings in At least two people At least ve At least ten More than 14 villages Shugnan district have been trapped hundred houses people reported located in Darvoz, have been dam- and killed under are reported as to injured due Murghob, Rushon, aged and are not the rock-falls. partially dam- to earthquake Shugnon districts are safe for further aged. and landslides aected. use. * Damage reports are based on Government of Tajikistan’s preliminary assessment. Not all affected areas are currently accessible due to challenging terrain and landslides 4 Initial analysis using United States Geological Surveys (USGS) data of Peak Acceleration (in%g) and Modified Marcalli Intensity (MMI) data. Spatial analysis was conducted on USGS data using high-resolution population data of Wolrdpop as baseline. Actual damage may vary depending on type of housing structure and vulnerability of terrain. SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) 8 December 2015 Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015 POPULATION BREAKDOWN - EXPOSURE TO EARTHQUAKE POPULATION EXPOSURE TO VIII VII VI V IV GRAND INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY TOTAL JIRGATAL 53,550 53,550 NURABAD 55,378 55,378 RASHT 8,934 85,138 94,072 12 12 ROGHUN TAVILDARA 16,989 14,304 31,292 VAHDAT 5,790 5,790 DARVOZ 16,886 5,202 22,088 ISHKASHIM 29,783 29,783 KHORUGH 247 247 MURGHAB 5 1,279 2,967 9,136 46 13,432 ROSHTQALA 724 32,853 33,577 RUSHAN 63 5,548 5,428 14,066 25,104 SHUGNAN 367 11,814 37,560 49,741 VANJ 48 5,237 23,193 28,477 BALJUVON 18,882 18,882 HAMADONI 30,719 30,719 KHOVALING 430 40,084 40,514 KULOB 127,557 127,557 MUMINABAD 10 69,172 69,182 SHUROOBOD 385 109,327 109,712 VOSE 1,320 1,320 ASHT 45,040 45,040 B. GAFUROV 109,086 109,086 ISFARA 208,678 208,678 KANIBADAM 152,818 152,818 KONIBODOM 23,450 23,450 KUHISTANI MASTCHOH 7,406 7,406 QAYRAQQUM 9,121 9,121 TOTAL 67 7,242 26,170 279,294 1,131,635 1,444,408 SITUATION ANALYSIS (Initial report) 8 December 2015 Tajikistan Earthquake - 7 December 2015 CONDITIONS & RISKS The epicenter of the quake was recorded 357 km south-east of POVERTY & REMOTENESS OF AREA the Tajik capital Dushanbe and 20 km from the mountain lake Sarez which is located at a elevation of 4,693 meters.
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