Assessing Investment Rationale: the Case of Anglo American Corporation in Latin America
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The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgementTown of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Cape Published by the University ofof Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University Assessing Investment Rationale: The Case of Anglo American Corporation in Latin America Town By: Lyal White Cape of Thesis Presented for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Department of Political Studies UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN University Supervisor: Prof. Robert Schrire July 2007 Table of Contents Abstract vi Acknowledgements vii 1. Introduction: The Essence of Investment Decisions 1.1. Introducing the research theme 1 1.2. Background to the case-study 2 1.3. Why this study? 3 1.4. Linking theory and practice 6 1.5. Explaining the time frame: 1973-2004 8 1.6. Structure and chapter breakdown 10 Town 2. Outlining the Methodology 2.1. Introduction 13 2.2. Research design to understand investment rationaleCape 14 2.3. Key attributes of qualitative research 16 2.4. Contextualising the case study of 17 2.4.1. The importance of triangulation and process tracing 18 2.4.2. Identifying the dependent and independent variables 20 2.4.3. The role of congruency and detailing process tracing 21 2.4.4. The congruence method 21 2.5. Research procedureUniversity and data collection 22 2.5.1. Semi-structured interviews and discussions 23 2.5.2. Literature diversity and depth 24 2.6. Advancing explanations 25 2.7. Conclusion 26 ii 3. The Relevance of Theories of Investment Behaviour 3.1. Introduction 28 3.2. Models of decision making 30 3.2.1. The rational actor model 31 3.2.2. The organisational model 31 3.2.2.1. The composite decision process and the organisation 32 3.2.3. The governmental politics model 35 3.2.4. Blending models 38 3.3. The external component of composite decisions 39 3.3.1. ‘Comparative’ and ‘competitive’ advantage 40 3.3.2. Institutions and investment rationale 44 3.3.3. Institutions and competitive advantage 45 3.4. Conclusion: Convergence in the essence of investment decisions 46 Town 4. The History of Anglo American in South America, 1973–2004 4.1. Introduction 48 4.2. The birth of the Anglo American CorporationCape 49 4.2.1. Anglo American and De Beers of 50 4.2.2. Expanding beyond South Africa’s borders 51 4.2.3. Balancing growth with political activism 53 4.2.4. Anglo American’s decision-making core 55 4.3. Anglo’s entry into South America 57 4.3.1. The Hochschild Group and the birth of AMSA 60 4.3.2. Developing aUniversity unique operating style for Latin America 64 4.3.3. Anglo’s growth and prominence in South America 66 4.3.4. AMSA’s first significant failure: The bid for CVRD 68 4.4. Conclusion: The AMSA experience and lessons for investment rationale 72 iii 5. The Political Economy of Investment: An Overview of Africa and Latin America 5.1. Introduction 77 5.2. The Investment environment in Africa and Latin America 78 5.2.1 Africa’s dismal investment record 79 5.2.2. Latin America’s mixed experience 82 5.3. Mining investment in Africa and Latin America 84 5.3.1. Africa 86 5.3.2. Latin America 89 5.3.3. The distinguishing characteristics of the Latin American mining environment 92 5.4. International dynamics and metal prices 94 5.5. Conclusion Town 95 6. Anglo American’s Investment Choices: The Cases of Chile and Zambia Cape 6.1. Introduction of 98 6.2. Investment strategy in Chile: From a restrictive to facilitative 99 6.2.1. The Chilean investment attraction strategy in the 1970s 100 6.2.2. Key policies, instruments and decisions 102 6.2.3. Internationalisation, democratisation and continuity: Cornerstones of success 104 6.3. Zambia’s investmentUniversity path 106 6.3.1. The political economy of investment in Zambia 106 6.4. Anglo American in Chile and Zambia 108 6.4.1. La Disputada versus Konkola Deep 109 6.4.2. The rationale of the ‘old’ Africa hands 112 6.4.3. Lessons from the Zambia experience 114 6.5. Conclusion: External aspects in investment decisions 115 7. Conclusion: Why did Anglo Invest in Latin America? 7.1. Reintroducing the central theme and objectives 118 iv 7.2. Bounded rationality and investment behaviour 119 7.3. Contextualising Anglo’s decisions 120 7.4. Key themes, questions and results of the research study 122 7.5. Concluding remarks: Future research threads 130 Appendices Chapter 1 Appendix I: Chronology of events 132 Appendix II: Defining Terminology, FDI 134 Chapter 2 Appendix I: Common misunderstandings regarding case study research 135 Appendix II: Data sources and types of evidence 136 Appendix III: Interview Sources Town 137 Appendix IV: Questionnaires 138 Chapter 3 Appendix I: Summary of conventional investment Capedecision models 141 Appendix II: Michael Porter’s diamond system:of Augmented with exogenous composite decision attributes 142 Appendix III: The composite decision 143 Chapter 4 Appendix I: Leading mining companies in the world, by sales (2004) 144 Appendix II: Anglo American mining operations in South America 145 Chapter 5 University Appendix I: Global distribution of net FDI inflows, 1970–2004 146 Appendix II: Latin American share of world mining production (%), 1990 & 1998 146 Appendix III: Annual average gold and copper prices 147 Bibliography 148 Internet Sources 159 v Abstract This thesis assesses the investment decisions and investment behaviour of the Anglo American Corporation in Latin America and Africa. It focuses on the question of ‘why’ Anglo chose to invest in Latin America and how it went about choosing one country over another. It is an historical, ideographic study that explores the role of personalities, institutional, political and corporate culture and wider national and regional political criteria in Anglo’s investment decision process. The research shows that Anglo’s investment decisions were based on more than financial cost-benefit returns. Indeed, the importance of maximising financial outcomes – best described by the ‘rational choice’ paradigm – provided the initial impetus for investment. But there was more to it in Anglo’s case. Politics and organisational concerns and culture were implicitly part of Anglo’s decision making. Political criteriaTown have become increasingly entwined with business decisions in less developed countries where medium-to-long-term stability is questioned. This advances the notion of ‘bounded rationality’ in decision making, which includes an array of political and policyCape considerations in a developing world investment setting. of Internal politics, leadership and organisational culture also influenced the company’s investment decisions. They were key in leading Anglo to Latin America, and central to the decision not to invest further in Zambia in 2001. The combination of these influences is described in this study as ‘composite investment decisions’: an integration of endogenous and exogenous factors. University The research traces Anglo’s progress in Latin America from inception into Brazil in 1973 through the growth of accumulated investment assets reaching US$5 billion in 2004. Anglo’s investment decisions ensured that it retained its position as a market leader in Latin America and the world of mining over a thirty-year span. Explaining why and how these investment decisions were made is a story until now never told that should inform academia, business analysts, multinational companies and policy- makers. vi Acknowledgements The process of intellectual development undertaken this research study drew me into a long and fulfilling journey (of self-discovery, among other things) that stretched from South Africa to Latin America and the United States, and from the University of Cape Town to the University of California, Berkeley. It was a journey that was supported, enriched and – in some cases – facilitated by a number of individuals who not only made it possible, but also encouraged me every step of the way. I am eternally grateful to them all. Firstly, my friends across the globe. I am fortunate to have a tightly knit network of friends who have offered me unconditional support and assistance throughout the process. Whether it be a place to stay for weeks that turned into months or simply showing (or pretending to show) some interest and enthusiasm in my research findings, which I felt the need to share with you over a bottle of wine or a cup of coffee. In particular, TownCarlo, Flo, Ali, Ruth, Juliana and Olivier, whose friendship and ongoing support gave me the stamina to persevere, and provided me with an understanding and sympathetic outlet for my frustrations. The hospitality and friendship of Jill and Ray providedCape me with the ideal environment and comfort in Berkeley to get the job done. of The Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS) at Berkeley and its wonderful people granted me the opportunity to spend time in what I believe to be one of the greatest institutions in the world. I had access to essential research material and engaged with scholars from across the globe, all of which contributed immensely to the study. Berkeley not only influenced my approach to research,University but changed the way I see the world. Secondly, my family. They have always encouraged me to take the road less travelled and instilled a sense of conviction that has allowed me to spread my wings and pursue my wildest dreams. Cuan, my brother, has helped me to see another perspective of the world and was an essential antidote when I was caught up in my own mind and needed to see the world for what it was – which was a lot less serious than I had imagined.