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SFISANTA FE INSTITUTE • SUMMER Bulletin 2001 • VOLUME 16 • NUMBER 1 How Complex Societies Evolve SFI Bulletin SUMMER 2001 • VOLUME 16 • NUMBER 1 The Bulletin of the Santa Fe Institute is published by SFI to keep its friends and supporters informed about its work. The Bulletin is free of charge and may be obtained by writing to the managing editor at the address below. The Santa Fe Institute is a private, independent, multidisciplinary research and education center founded in 1984. Since its founding, SFI has devoted itself to creating a new kind of scientific research community, pursuing emerging synthesis in science. Operating as a visiting institution, SFI seeks to catalyze new collaborative, multidisciplinary research; to break down the barriers between the traditional disciplines; to spread its ideas and methodologies to other institutions; and to encourage the practical application of its results. 14 Published by the Santa Fe Institute 1399 Hyde Park Road Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA Phone (505) 984-8800 fax (505) 982-0565 home page: http://www.santafe.edu Note: The SFI Bulletin may be read at the website: www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/Bulletin/. If you would prefer to read the Bulletin on your computer rather than receive a printed version, contact Patrisia Brunello at 984-8800, Ext. 221 or [email protected] EDITORIAL STAFF: Ginger Richardson Lesley S. King Sarah Knutson Andi Sutherland CONTRIBUTORS: Joachim Erber Georgina Ferry Rex Graham Wim Hordijk Erica Jen Thomas B. Kepler insect note Robert Page Cosma Rohilla Shalizi DESIGN & PRODUCTION: Patrick McFarlin A swarm of bees in May COVER AND ENTOMOLOGICAL Is worth a load of hay; NOTE ILLUSTRATIONS: A swarm of bees in June Spencer Levy Is worth a silver spoon; A swarm of bees in July Is not worth a fly. —Old Rhyme, Anonymous 17 center section 7 22 26 28 2 FEATURES Sir Robert May—Complexity and Real World Problems . 2 Sharing Computer Power . 7 Language Evolution . 14 Particles That Compute . 17 WORK IN PROGRESS The Evolutionary Dynamics of Social Organization in Insect Societies: From Behavior to Genes and Back . center section NEWS SFI Public Lecture Series . 21 New (and returning) Faces . 22 32 NIH Leads Experimentalists to Modeling...Theorists to Biology . 26 Competition Tight for Two Complexity Summer Schools . 28 Robustness Advisors Meet . 30 Raoul-Duval . 31 Local Teens Honored by SFI . 31 INSIDE SFI Picasso and Perception—Attending to the Higher Order . 32 SANTA FE INSTITUTE BULLETIN • SUMMER 2001 1 SIR ROBERT MAYby Georgina Ferry COMPLEXITY AND REAL WORLD PROBLEMS profile 2 SANTA FE INSTITUTE BULLETIN • SUMMER 2001 GO “IF THERE IS ONE CONSISTENT THREAD THAT RUNS THROUGH MY LIFE FROM WHEN I WAS YOUNG,” SAYS SIR ROBERT MAY, “IT’S THAT I ENJOY PLAY- ING GAMES, WHETHER IT’S MONOPOLY, RISK, CHESS, OR CONTRACT BRIDGE. AND MY PROFES- SIONAL INTEREST IS IN WORKING OUT THE RULES OF THE GAMES THAT NATURE PLAYS.” Since a few years after its foundation, the “floating crap game” (as the Institute was dubbed by founders early on) has intrigued (and sometimes exasperated) May from his vantage point on the SFI Science Board. This year, for the first time, he is co-chairing the Board (with biophysicist Harold Morowitz), and so has a chance to referee the game, if not to rewrite some of the rules. No one should confuse May’s penchant for games playing with frivo- lousness. Throughout his career he has pursued ideas in theoretical biol- ogy whose understanding has practical consequences of the utmost importance, notably in preserving biodiversity and controlling the spread of infectious disease. And his desire for SFI is to see it pursuing programs that are similarly grounded in reality. “It’s becoming apparent that a theory of complexity in some sense of a great and transforming body of knowledge that applies to a whole range of cases may be unten- able,” he says, “but there are undoubtedly a number of extremely use- ful ways it may be applied. The Institute has grown physically and intel- lectually from its modest beginnings. We need to think provocatively about managing the science on the horizon.” SANTA FE INSTITUTE BULLETIN • SUMMER 2001 3 SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE SCIENCE MASTERING THE BUREAUCRACY GAME Back in the 1960s, May himself made the switch Since 1988, May has been based in the Zoology from enjoying mathematical analysis of complex phe- Department at the University of Oxford in England, nomena for its own sake to using it as a tool to solve real- where he is a Royal Society research professor. From world problems. Born and raised in Sydney, Australia, he 1995 to 2000 his incisive, analytical approach was began his higher education in chemical engineering pressed into service by the British government, which before discovering theoretical physics and taking a appointed him its chief scientific adviser. Some might Ph.D. in superconductivity. But he left what would have have wondered how the blunt-speaking, uncompromis- been a very successful career analyzing the fundamental ing Australian, with his well-known distaste for bureau- nature of the universe to enter the burgeoning move- cracy, would fare in the polite world of Whitehall (equiv- ment toward social responsibility in science, which in alent of the United States Capitol Hill). But it proved to Sydney focused strongly on the impact of human activ- be a brilliantly successful appointment. “If one is to be ity on global ecology. Reading around the topic, he effective, one must operate within the civil service and balked at a statement that complex ecosystems were understand the workings of that subculture,” says May. more stable than simple ones. “I was intrigued enough His adoption of a jacket and tie in place of his accus- to look at the mathematical arguments for this,” he says tomed hiking gear was a superficial expression of his “and found that on the contrary, the more species you instant mastery of the rules of the Whitehall game, had, then, as a mathematical generality, the less stable which allowed him to establish fruitful working rela- the system. Of course,” he adds, “real ecosystems are tionships at every level in the Office of Science and forged by evolutionary forces acting on their constituent Technology (OST). He was then able to do what he individuals, and as such are not mathematical generali- likes best—to “understand the points of leverage on a ties.” May’s subsequent work contributed to the recog- complex system and what you ought to be doing to nition that communities with many and varied species, make it work better.” such as rainforests and coral reefs, can be highly vulner- able to environmental damage. THROWING OPEN THE CURTAINS He went on to describe the His first move, a crucial one for British science, was “boom-bust” cycles of some to analyze the cost effectiveness of basic science in the animal populations as exam- UK as compared to other countries, something that had ples of chaotic dynamics, in never been done comprehensively before. He found which the initial conditions— that while Britain came near the top of the industrial- number of animals, rate of ized world in its output of research, it was near the bot- reproduction, and so on—can tom in government spending on research and develop- never be described accurately ment as a percentage of GDP (Gross Domestic enough to predict the out- Product). Combining the two put Britain clearly in the come. His reputation growing, lead as the most cost-effective nation in research. After in 1973 he moved from Sydney years of admonishment from the Treasury to become to Princeton, and from theoret- more efficient, the research community was able to ical physics to the professorship of zoology. Soon after- prove that it was already the most efficient in the world. wards he began a long-term collaboration with the para- With the more favorable spending climate ushered in by sitologist Roy Anderson, then at Imperial College, the election of Tony Blair as Prime Minister in 1997, sci- London, applying the models of population biology he ence was able to win year-on-year real terms increases in had developed to the problem of how infection is trans- its budget. mitted and maintained in host populations. This work May’s second major achievement as chief scientific proved to be of critical importance in understanding the adviser was to throw open the curtains that traditionally spread of HIV. May and Anderson’s stark predictions of obscured the whole process of expert scientific advice to the catastrophic impact of AIDS on African populations government. A catastrophic breakdown in public trust have proved to be all too accurate. “Our models of the had occurred after the government repeatedly—and spread of HIV in Africa were based on the observation erroneously—reassured consumers that cattle disease that it’s much more dangerous to have one sexual con- BSE posed no risk to human health. During May’s tact with each of ten different people, than to have ten tenure the whole structure of scientific advisory com- contacts with the same person,” says May. “That’s why mittees was revised to include bodies that had a more we predicted a much more rapid spread than other mod- strategic position on issues such as food safety and els, which saw each individual act as equally risky.” human genetics, and that included members from a III BY M. C. ESCHER. ”2001 CORDON ART - BAARN HOLLAND. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. METAMORPHOSIS 4 SANTA FE INSTITUTE BULLETIN • SUMMER 2001 broader range of backgrounds. At the same time he Among projects he admires he cites Alan Perelson’s issued guidelines establishing openness rather than work on theoretical immunology, which complements secrecy as a fundamental principle of their activities.

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