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ACRA Affirms ААА(RU) to the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, Outlook Stable, and AAA(RU) Lead Analysts: to Bond Issues

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ACRA Affirms ААА(RU) to the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, Outlook Stable, and AAA(RU) Lead Analysts: to Bond Issues REGIONS RATING PRESS RELEASE THE KHANTY-MANSIYSK AUTONOMOUS OKRUG-UGRA August 17, 2020 ACRA affirms ААА(RU) to the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, outlook Stable, and AAA(RU) Lead analysts: to bond issues Maxim Parshin, Senior Analyst +7 (495) 139-0480, ext. 225 [email protected] The credit rating of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra (hereinafter, the Region) is based on high regional economic indicators, the high liquidity of the Region’s budget, and low debt load. Maxim Pershin, Expert +7 (495) 139-0485 The Region is located in the Ural Federal District. It is an administrative subject of the [email protected] Russian Federation and at the same time is part of the Tyumen Region.1 The Region’s population is 1.7 mln (1% of Russia’s population). The Region’s GRP amounted to RUB 4.4475 tln in 2018, around 5% of Russia’s total GRP. According to the Region’s assessments, its GRP amounted to RUB 4.4501 tln in 2019. Key rating assessment Low debt load and high budget liquidity. The Region’s debt portfolio is composed factors entirely of bonds with maturities before 2024. The Region’s debt to current revenues ratio was 5% at the end of 2019 and ACRA does not expect it to change significantly by the end of 2020. As of July 1, 2020, the budget’s account balances (including deposits) exceeded total debt by more than seven times and average monthly budget expenses for 6M 2020 by more than five times. The Region has enough accumulated liquidity both for debt payments this year and for financing the 2020 budget deficit. The Region is a federal budget donor, producing more than 40% of Russian oil. The sectoral structure of the Region’s GRP is stable and the contribution of natural resources to this indicator exceeds 60%. In 2019, 90% of taxes and fees collected in the Region were sent to the federal budget and only 10% went to the Region’s consolidated budget. At the same time, the Region’s tax revenues amounted to 15% of the federal budget’s total tax revenues for 3M 2020. The Region ranked third in GRP per capita among Russian regions in 2018. In 2016−2019, the ratio of averaged wages to the averaged regional subsistence minimum grew steadily (4.2−4.5x), and the Region’s unemployment rate (according to ILO methodology) is significantly lower than the national average. High budget self-sufficiency. The averaged2 share of tax and non-tax revenues (TNTR) should be 94% of total income (excluding subventions) for 2017−2021. The flexibility of budget expenses is moderately high. The averaged ratio of capital expenses to total budget expenses excluding subventions should be 15% for 2020, while the share of capital expenses financed by the Region with its own funds should be about 98%. The averaged ratio of current operations to current revenues was almost 10% for 2017−2021, which indicates that current revenues can cover current expenses. For 5M 2020, the Regional budget’s tax revenues were 29% higher compared to the same period in 2019. Income tax revenues saw the largest increase (+74%), which may be due to the currency revaluation of certain assets owned by businesses registered in the Region. Property tax and personal income tax revenues for the abovementioned period were slightly lower than 5M 2019 (by 7% and 3%, respectively). Given the unfavorable macroeconomic environment, ACRA believes budget revenues may decrease in the second half of the year. However, the stability of the tax revenue structure, flexibility of 1 Part of the income tax revenues collected in the Region goes to the Tyumen Region’s budget (its size is regulated by the contract between the Tyumen Region and the Region and amounts to 29.5%). 2 Hereinafter, averages are calculated according to the Methodology for Credit Ratings Assignment to Regional and Municipal Authorities of the Russian Federation. ACRA affirms ААА(RU) to the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, August 17, 2020 outlook Stable, and AAA(RU) to bond issues budget expenses, and minimal debt load (with a significant amount of accumulated liquidity) will support the budget. Key assumptions Maintaining countercyclical budget policy in terms of expense planning; Maintaining socioeconomic indicators at a high level; Financing this year’s budget deficit with accumulated liquidity. Potential outlook or rating The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will most likely stay unchanged within the 12 to 18-month horizon. change factors A negative rating action may be prompted by: Growth rates of current revenues lagging behind dynamics of current expenses; Significant decrease in budget liquidity; Increase in debt load over 30% of current revenues; Significant changes in inter-budget relations in Russia. Issue ratings Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, 35001 (ISIN RU000A0JX215), maturity date: December 18, 2023, issue volume: RUB 6 bln — ААА(RU); Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, 35002 (ISIN RU000A0ZYKW4), maturity date: December 17, 2024, issue volume: RUB 7 bln — ААА(RU). Rationale. In ACRA’s opinion, the bonds listed above are senior unsecured debt instruments, the credit ratings of which correspond to the credit rating of the Khanty- Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra. Regulatory disclosure The credit ratings of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra and bonds (RU000A0JX215, RU000A0ZYKW4) issued by the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug- Ugra have been assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation based on the Methodology for Credit Ratings Assignment to Regional and Municipal Authorities of the Russian Federation and the Key Concepts Used by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities. In the course of assigning a credit rating to the bond issues above, the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Individual Issues of Financial Instruments under the National Scale for the Russian Federation was also used. The credit rating of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra and the credit ratings of the bonds (RU000A0JX215, RU000A0ZYKW4) issued by the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra were first published by ACRA on September 26, 2017, September 28, 2017, and December 15, 2017, respectively. The credit rating of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra and its outlook, as well as the credit ratings of the bonds (RU000A0JX215, RU000A0ZYKW4) issued by the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra are expected to be revised within 182 days following the publication date of this press release as per the Calendar of planned sovereign credit rating revisions and publications. The credit ratings were assigned based on the data provided by the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, information from publicly available sources (the Ministry of Finance, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service), as well as ACRA’s own databases. The credit ratings are solicited and the Government of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra participated in the rating process. No material discrepancies between the provided data and the data officially disclosed by the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra in its financial statements have been discovered. ACRA affirms ААА(RU) to the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, August 17, 2020 outlook Stable, and AAA(RU) to bond issues ACRA provided no additional services to the Government of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra. No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating process. ACRA affirms ААА(RU) to the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra, August 17, 2020 outlook Stable, and AAA(RU) to bond issues (С) 2020 Analytical Credit Rating Agency (Joint-Stock Company), ACRA (JSC) 75, Sadovnicheskaya embankment, Moscow, Russia www.acra-ratings.com The Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) was founded in 2015, with its 27 shareholders representing major Russian corporate and financial institutions and its authorized capital exceeding RUB 3 bln. ACRA’s main objective is to provide the Russian financial market with high-quality rating products. Methodologies and internal documents of ACRA are developed in compliance with Russian legislation and with regard to global rating industry best practices. The provided information, including, without limitation, credit and non-credit ratings, rating assessment factors, detailed credit analysis results, methodologies, models, forecasts, analytical reviews and materials, as well as other information placed on the ACRA website (further referred to as Information), coupled with the ACRA website software and other applications, are intended for information purposes only. Information must not be modified, reproduced or distributed by any means, in any way or form, either in whole, or in part, in marketing materials, as part of public relations events, in news bulletins, in commercial materials or reports without prior written consent from, and reference to, ACRA. Any use of Information in violation of these requirements or the law is prohibited. ACRA credit ratings reflect ACRA’s opinion about the ability of a rated entity to meet its financial obligations or about the credit risk of individual financial obligations and instruments of a rated entity at the time of publication of the relevant Information. Non-credit ratings reflect ACRA’s opinion about certain non-credit risks assumed by interested parties interacting with a rated entity. The assigned credit and non-credit ratings reflect all material information pertaining to a rated entity and known by ACRA (including the information received from third parties), the quality and reliability of which ACRA considers appropriate. ACRA shall not be responsible for the accuracy of information provided by clients or relevant third parties. ACRA does not audit or otherwise verify the provided data and shall not be held responsible for their accuracy and completeness. ACRA conducts rating analysis of information provided by customers using its own methodologies, with the texts thereof available on ACRA’s website – www.acra-ratings.com/criteria.
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