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ACRA Affirms the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra at ААА(RU), Outlook Stable, and Bond Issues at Lead Analysts: AAA(RU)

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ACRA Affirms the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra at ААА(RU), Outlook Stable, and Bond Issues at Lead Analysts: AAA(RU) REGIONS RATING THE KHANTY-MANSIYSK AUTONOMOUS OKRUG - UGRA PRESS RELEASE September 9, 2019 ACRA affirms the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra at ААА(RU), outlook Stable, and bond issues at Lead analysts: AAA(RU) Maxim Pershin, Senior Analyst +7 (495) 139-0485 [email protected] The credit rating of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra (hereinafter, the Region) is based on high regional economic indicators, the high liquidity of the Region's Elena Anisimova, Associate Director budget, and a low debt load. +7 (495) 139-04-86 [email protected] The Region is located in the Ural Federal District. The Region is an administrative subject 1 of the Russian Federation and at the same time is a part of the Tyumen Region . The regional population is 1.7 mln (1.1% of Russia’s population). The Region’s GRP amounted to RUB 3,511 bln in 2017, around 5% of Russia’s total GRP. According to the Region’s assessments, its GRP amounted to RUB 3,967 bln in 2018. Key rating assessment Low debt load and high budget liquidity. The Region’s debt portfolio is composed factors entirely of bonds with maturities before 2024. The debt to operating balance ratio will amount to 40% (minimal risk level) by the end of 2019. According to ACRA’s forecast, this ratio will remain within the limits corresponding to a low level of risk in 2020. The operating balance (excluding interest expenses) will be much higher than the volume of repayable debt over the course of 2019. The Region’s current (as of August 1, 2019) account balances are more than 7x higher than its total debt and exceed monthly budget expense averages for 7M 2019 by more than 5x. The region is a federal budget donor, producing more than 40% of Russian oil. The Region’s GRP sectoral structure is stable and the contribution of natural resources to this indicator is higher than 60%. At the end of 2018, 90% of taxes and fees collected in the Region were sent to the Federal budget and only 10% went to the Region’s consolidated budget. At the same time, revenues from the Region amounted to 26% of the Federal budget’s total tax revenues for this period. The Region ranks 3rd in GRP per capita among Russian regions. The Region’s unemployment level is significantly lower than the national average according to ILO methodology. High budget self-sufficiency. From 2016 to 2019, the share of tax and non-tax revenues (TNTR) averaged 96% of the Region’s total revenue (excluding subventions). According to ACRA’s methodology, the share of mandatory expenditures in 2018 amounted to 77%. In 2018, the combination of high oil prices and the low exchange rate of the national currency (which had not been the case in previous years) led to high ruble oil prices. As a result, in 2018, the regional budget’s income tax revenues grew significantly: from RUB 45 bln in 2017 to RUB 121 bln. This allowed the Region to fulfill its budget with a surplus of RUB 37 bln (14% of the Region’s TNTR). The current version of the Region’s budget law for 2019 provides for a reduction in income tax revenues by 41% (up to RUB 71 bln) and the fulfillment of the budget with a deficit of RUB 20 bln (11% of the Region's TNTR). The Region plans to finance this using the balances formed in 2018 and without resorting to long-term borrowings. ACRA estimates that the actual decline in income tax revenues in 2019 compared to 2018 may be below the level projected by the Region. Income tax revenues only declined by 10% in H1 2019 compared to H1 2018. 1 Part of the income tax revenues collected in the Region goes to the Tyumen Region’s budget (its size is regulated by the contract between the Tyumen Region and the Region and amounts to 29.5%). ACRA affirms the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra at ААА(RU), September 9, 2019 outlook Stable, and bond issues at AAA(RU) Key assumptions Maintaining countercyclical budget policy in terms of expenditure planning; Fulfilling the 2019 budget with a deficit lower than 11% of TNTR; Maintaining high budget liquidity. Potential outlook or rating The Stable outlook assumes that the rating will most likely stay unchanged within the change factors 12 to 18-month horizon. A negative rating action may be prompted by: Higher social spending in the Region’s budget without a corresponding increase in revenues; Growth in budget deficit up to 20% of TNTR as a result of TNTR underpayment in 2019; Significant changes in inter-budget relations in Russia. Issue ratings Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra, 34001 (ISIN RU000A0JUWB5), maturity date: October 13, 2019, issue volume: RUB 14 bln, — ААА(RU); Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra, 35001 (ISIN RU000A0JX215), maturity date: December 18, 2023, issue volume: RUB 6 bln, — ААА(RU); Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug – Ugra, 35002 (ISIN RU000A0ZYKW4), maturity date: December 17, 2024, issue volume: RUB 7 bln, — ААА(RU). Rationale. ACRA is of the opinion that the above bonds issued by the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra are senior unsecured debt instruments, which credit ratings are equal to that of the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra. Regulatory disclosure The credit ratings of the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra and bonds (ISIN RU000A0JUWB5, RU000A0JX215, RU000A0ZYKW4) issued by the Khanty- Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra have been assigned under the national scale for the Russian Federation based on the Methodology for Credit Ratings Assignment to Regional and Municipal Authorities of the Russian Federation, and the Key Concepts Used by Analytical Credit Rating Agency within the Scope of Its Rating Activities. In the course of assigning a credit rating to the bond issues above, the Methodology for Assigning Credit Ratings to Individual Issues of Financial Instruments under the National Scale of the Russian Federation was also used. The credit rating of the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra and the credit ratings of the government bonds (ISIN RU000A0JUWB5, RU000A0JX215, RU000A0ZYKW4) issued by the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra were first published by ACRA on September 26, 2017, September 28, 2017, September 28, 2017, and December 15, 2017, respectively. The credit rating of the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra and its outlook, as well as the credit ratings of the government bonds (ISIN RU000A0JUWB5, RU000A0JX215, RU000A0ZYKW4) issued by the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra are expected to be revised within 182 days following the publication date of this press release as per the Calendar of planned sovereign credit rating revisions and publications. The credit ratings were assigned based on the data provided by the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra, information from publicly available sources (the Ministry of Finance, the Federal State Statistics Service, and the Federal Tax Service), as well as ACRA’s own databases. The credit ratings are solicited and the Government of the Khanty-Manskiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra participated in the rating process. ACRA affirms the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra at ААА(RU), September 9, 2019 outlook Stable, and bond issues at AAA(RU) No material discrepancies between the provided data and the data officially disclosed by the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra in its financial statements have been discovered. ACRA provided no additional services to the Government of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra. No conflicts of interest were discovered in the course of credit rating process. ACRA affirms the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug - Ugra at ААА(RU), September 9, 2019 outlook Stable, and bond issues at AAA(RU) (С) 2019 Analytical Credit Rating Agency (Joint-Stock Company), ACRA (JSC) 75, Sadovnicheskaya embankment, Moscow, Russia www.acra-ratings.com Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) was founded in 2015, with its 27 shareholders representing major Russian corporate and financial institutions and its authorized capital exceeding RUB 3 bn. ACRA’s main objective is to provide the Russian financial market with high-quality rating products. Methodologies and internal documents of ACRA are developed in compliance with Russian legislation and with regard to global rating industry best practices. The provided information, including, without limitation, credit and non-credit ratings, rating assessment factors, detailed credit analysis results, methodologies, models, forecasts, analytical reviews and materials, as well as other information placed on the ACRA website (further referred to as Information), coupled with the ACRA website software and other applications, are intended for information purposes only. Information must not be modified, reproduced or distributed by any means, in any way or form, either in whole, or in part, in marketing materials, as part of public relations events, in news bulletins, in commercial materials or reports without prior written consent from, and reference to, ACRA. Any use of Information in violation of these requirements or the law is prohibited. ACRA credit ratings reflect ACRA’s opinion about the ability of a rated entity to meet its financial obligations or about the credit risk of individual financial obligations and instruments of a rated entity at the time of publication of the relevant Information. Non-credit ratings reflect ACRA’s opinion about certain non-credit risks assumed by interested parties interacting with a rated entity. The assigned credit and non-credit ratings reflect all material information pertaining to a rated entity and known by ACRA (including the information received from third parties), the quality and reliability of which ACRA considers appropriate. ACRA shall not be responsible for the accuracy of information provided by clients or relevant third parties. ACRA does not audit or otherwise verify the provided data and shall not be held responsible for their accuracy and completeness.
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