ELS AM IAEA 26 - 28 April 1993

Costs of Renewable Energy Systems 26-28 April 1993 IAEA Headquarters, Vienna

by

Uffe Steiner Jensen ELSAM Denmark

ELSAM, d. 23. april 1993, OH-lb.nr.: 692a-USJ/LLS IAEA 26-28 Aprili993 ELSAM

1. Danish Windpower Experience

2. Methods and Results from Integrations Studies

3. Work going on

ELSAM, d. 23. »pril 1993, OH-lb.nr.: 692B-USVLLS Wind Farms in Denmark

107 Wind Farms in Denmark

Locations Make Number and Cap. Start-up size MW year

Private 1 Oddersund Syd Bonus 25 X 95 kW 2.4 1985 2. Oddersund Nord Bonus 10x 55 kW Vestas 10x 55 kW 1.1 1985 3. Sydvestmors Vestas 10x 75 kW 0.8 1985 4. Tasndpibe Vestas 30 x 75 kW 2.3 1986 5. Fana Vestas 13x 55 kW 0.7 1983 6. /Era Vestas 11 X 55 kW 0.6 1985 7. Ebeltoft (Off-shore) Nordtank 16 X 55 kW 0.9 1985 8. Hasle Blacksm. 10x100 kW 1.0 1986 9. Ranum Vestas 14x 75 kW 1.1 1985 10. Aaie Wind Matic 10x 75 kW 0.8 1985 11.7

11. Syltholm Vestas/DWT 25 x 400 kW 10.0 1988/91 12. Kyndby Danwin 21 x 180 kW 3.8 1988 13. Masneda Vestas/DWT 5 x 750 kW 3.8 1985 14. 0ster Marre Danwin 7 x 225 kW 1.6 1990 15. Kappel Vestas/DWT 24 x 400 kW 9.6 1990 16. Oro Micon 5 x 200 kW 1.0 1990 17. Vindeby (Off-shore) Bonus 11 x450kW 5.0 1991 18. Nojsomhed Vestas 23 x 225 kW 5.2 1992 40.0

19. Hollandsbjerg Nordtank 30x130 kW 2 x 300 kW 4.5 1988 20. Ryâ Wincon 20 X 99 kW 30 x 200 kW 2.6 1988 21. Norrekaar Enge 1+2 Nordtank 36x130kW Nordtank 42 X 300 kW 17.3 1988/90 22. Torrild Bonus 15x150 kW 2.3 1989 23. Veiling Maersk1+2 Vestas 34 x 90 kW Vestas 2 x 200 kW Vestas 29 x 225 kW 10.0 1987/89 24. Vederso Kaer Vestas 27 x 225 kW 6.1 1990 25. Draeby Fedsodde Wind World 12x220kW 2.6 1991 26. Brans Micon 8 x 400 kW 3.2 1992 48.6

ELSAM maj 1992. OH-ib.nr. «S7F/JKV/SUS

108 Utility Wind Farms in ELS A M1 s Service Area Performance

Accum, Generation Utilization generation kWh/m2 hours Wind Farm MWh Average kW/m2 Average

Veiling Maersk 1 30818 611 (6) 0.30 2227 (1) Ryâ 15112 613(7) 0.31 1952(4) Nürrekaer Enge 1 25143 705 (3) 0.39 1791 (6) Hollandsbjerg 18208 545 (8) 0.40 1349(8) Veiling Maersk 2 27583 831 (1) 0.39 2112(2) Torrild 8469 680 (5) 0.36 1882 (5) Norrekaar Enge 2 17719 685 (4) 0.49 1406 (7) VedersoKser 12016 777 (2) 0.39 1976(3)

ELSAM maj 1992, OH-lb.nr.: 487T/JKV/SUS Windpower in Denmark

Generation GWh 800

PRIVATE 600 -

UTILITY

400

200 -

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Installed capacity Number MW Units 500 3.500

400 -

300

200

100

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

110

ELSAM. E^ril 1992. OH-lb.nr.:^S7D\JKV'SOS Wind Power in Denmark

Installed capacity Number MW Units 500 i 3.S00 i

19B6 1987 1988 19B9 1990 1991 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

111 Investments and Cost Breakdown for Utility Wind Farms in ELSAM's Service Area

Number of wind Farms : 8 Total capacity : 42.7 MW Number of wind turbines : 240 Total wind-exp. area : 107053 m2 Commissioned : 1987-90

Investments, 1991 prices kXEU % Project management 1909 4.1 Wind turbines * 31522 67.6 Foundations 4021 8.6 Local elect, installations 3670 7.9 Grid connection 2570 5.5 Control houses 361 0.8 Roads 980 2.1 Land 1280 2.7 Miscellaneous 301 0.7 Total 46614 100.0

Investments XEU/kW 1092 XEU/m2 435

ELSAM ma¡ 1992, OH-&.nr.: 4S7J/JKV/SUS 112 Accumulated O&M Costs and Availability for Utility Wind Farms in ELSAM's Service Area

O&M Costs Accumulated Availability Number of 1988-91 Average Calendar Years 1991 Costs 1988-91 Wind Farm in Operation XEU/kWh % Veiling Msersk 1 , 4 0.0109 97.2 Ryâ 3 0.0099 97.7 Narrekaer Enge 1 3 0.0081 99.2 Hollandsbjerg 3 0.0076 96.7 Veiling Msersk 2 2 0.0103 94.4 Torrild 2 0.0146 98.0 N0rrek£er Enge 2 1 0.0034 98.2 VedersoKaer 1 0.0084 99.3

Total 0.0090 97.6

ELSAM ma¡ 1992. OH-tb.nr.: 4S7HAJKV/SUS

113 Generation Costs for Utility Wind Farms in ELSAM's Service Area

Number of Wind Farms : 8 Total capacity, 1991 : 42.7 MW Generation 1991 : 74 GWh Accumulated generation 1988/91 :155 GWh

Accumulated 1988-91 1991 1991 costs

Capital costs kXEU : 3740 8068 XEU/kWh : 0.0504 0.0520 0&M costs kXEU : 663 1392 XEU/kWh : 0.0089 0.0090 Generation costs XEU/kWh : 0.0593 0.0610

ELSAM maj 1992, OH-lb.nr.: 487I/JKV/SUS

114 Economy of Private Wind Energy in Denmark

Generation Costs: Published Examples of Wind Turbines Commissioned in: 1984 1990 Wind turbine size, kW 55 250 Investments total, kXEU 63 179 Investments, grid conn. kXEU 4 25 Generation, MWh/year 121 490 Capital costs, 7%, 20 years, XEU/kWh 0.049 0.034 O&M costs, XEU/kWh 0.008 0.008 Generation costs, XEU/kWh 0.057 0.042

Payment for/Support of Private Wind Energy, XEU/kWh in: 1984 1990 investments, national support, 30 0%, converted 0.015 0.0 Grid connection, utility support 35%, converted 0.001 0.001 Payment, utilities pay 85% of local consumer price 0.040 0.047 Electricity tax compensation 0.0197 0.0293 + VAT 0.023 0.035 Gross payment 0.079 0.083 Gross profit % 38 98

ILSAM ma] 1992, OH-Jb.nr. 487K/JKV/SUS IAEA 26-28 April 1993 ELS AM

Integration Studies

Simulatipns/LOLP Capacity credit Control capacity Emissions

ELSAM, d. 23. >pril 1993, OH-lb.nr.: 692C-USJ/LLS ELS AM IAEA 26 -28 April i 993

Integration Study method

- define a reference power system plan - define a new power system plan with a certain amount of wind power - calculate time-series for electrical load and district heating from CHP-production - calculate time-series for wind power production - simulate operation - calculate contribution margins and the difference in operating costs - calculate investment scedules - make economic evaluation and sensitivity analysis - calculate environmental differences

ELSAM, d. 23. april 1993, OH-Ib.nr.: 692D-USJ/LLS IAEA 26 -28 April 1993 ELSAM

Capacity Credit

1988 Penetration •5% 10% 15% Capacity Credit 30% 25% 20%

1983 Penetration 5% 10% 15% Capacity Credit 23% 16% 11%

ELSAM, d. 23. aprll 1993, OH-lb.nr.: 692E-USJ/LLS ELS AM IAEA 26-28 April 1993

Work going on

Predictability Operational Planning

ELSAM, d. 23. april 1993, OH-lb.nr.: 692F-USJ/LLS Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

Proposal for NON-NUCLEAR ENERGY PROGRAMME JOULE II 1991-1994

O TITLE: Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

ELSAM, d. 21. ma) 1992, OH-lb.nr.: 535B-USJ/LLS

Wind Power EF Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

Coordinator: ELSAM (Denmark) Contactor: N.V. Sep (Netherlands)

Consultant: Department of Mathematical Statistics and Operations Research (IMSOR), Technical University of Denmark.

ELSAM, d. 21. ma] 1992, OH-lb.nr.:535b-USJ/LLS

Wind Power EF Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

Project Description

The purpose of the project is to develop, implement and test an online forecasting model for the prediction of wind power production to be used in the day-to-day planning of operations and also in long term planning studies.

ELSAM, d. 21. ma) 1992, OH-lb.nr.: 535C-USJ/LLS

Wind Powar EF Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

Production forecast for the Mors farm 3 hours ahead The period 01.09.89 - 10.09.89

ELSAM, d. 21. ma| 1992, OH-lb.nr.: S35g-USJ/LLS

Wind Power EF Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

Model forecast uncertainty

Standard Percentage Lead time deviation of installed kW capacity

3 hours ahead 97.1 12.9 6 hours ahead 129.8 17.3 9 hours ahead 147.7 19.7

ELSAM, d. 21. ma) 1992, OH-lb.nr.: 535d-USJ/LLS

Wind Power EF Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

Benefits

A well-functioning forecasting model will contribute to a more efficient utilization of the rest of the electricity system as it is expected that the wind can be included in a more constructive way in the daily planning of operations.

ELSAM, d. 21. ma] 1992, OH-lb.nr.: 535E-USJ/LLS

Wind Power EF Wind Power Prediction Tool in Central Dispatch Centres

Subprojects

- The Setting up of a Forecasting Model for Wind Speed - Transformation of Wind Speed to Wind Turbine Production - Establishment of the Overall Model - Implementation of Model - On-Line Measuremants - Operational Phase/the Gathering of Experience

ELSAM, d. 21. ma| 1992, OH-lb.r.r.: 535F-USJ/LLS

Wind Power EF