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Intervention Strategies Against COVID-19 and Their Estimated Impact On medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133; this version posted April 15, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . Title: Intervention strategies against COVID-19 and their estimated impact on Swedish healthcare capacity Authors: Jasmine M GARDNER (0000-0002-6399-8504), Lander WILLEM (0000-0002-9210-1196), Wouter VAN DER WIJNGAART (0000-0001-8248-6670), Shina Caroline Lynn KAMERLIN (0000-0002-3190-1173), Nele BRUSSELAERS (0000-0003-0137-447X), Peter KASSON (0000-0002-3111-8103) Address for each author JMG: Science for Life Laboratory, Department of Chemistry – BMC, Uppsala University, BMC Box 576, S-751 23 Uppsala, Sweden, [email protected] LW: Centre for Health Economic Research and Modelling Infectious Diseases, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium, [email protected] WVDW: School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Malvinas väg 10, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden, [email protected] SCLK: Science for Life Laboratory, Department of Chemistry – BMC, Uppsala University, BMC Box 576, S-751 23 Uppsala, Sweden, [email protected] NB: Centre for Translational Microbiome Research (CTMR), Dept. of Microbiology, Tumour and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet, Sweden; Ghent University, Belgium, [email protected] PK: Science for Life Laboratory, Dept. of Cell and Molecular Biology, Uppsala University, Uppsala 75124 Sweden and Departments of Molecular Physiology and Biomedical Engineering, University of Virginia, USA, [email protected] Author’s names and positions Jasmine GARDNER, PhD, Post-doc in Structural Biology NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice. Lander WILLEM, PhD, Post-doc in Infectious Disease Modelling 1 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133; this version posted April 15, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . Wouter VAN DER WIJNGAART, PhD, Professor in Engineering Shina Caroline Lynn KAMERLIN, PhD, Professor of Structural Biology Nele BRUSSELAERS, MD MSc PhD, Associate Professor in Clinical Epidemiology Peter KASSON, MD PhD, Associate Professor of Cell and Molecular Biology Corresponding authors: Shina Caroline Lynn KAMERLIN, Department of Chemistry – BMC, Uppsala University, BMC Box 576, S-751 23 Uppsala, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected]. Nele BRUSSELAERS, Centre for Translational Microbiome Research (CTMR), Dept. of Microbiology, Tumour and Cell Biology, Karolinska Institutet. Biomedicum, kvarter 8A. Tomtebodavägen 16, SE-171 65 Stockholm. E-mail: [email protected] Peter KASSON, Science for Life Laboratory, Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, SE-75124 and Departments of Molecular Physiology and Biomedical Engineering, University of Virginia. E-mail: [email protected]. Word count: 3714 Copyright/license for publication The Corresponding Authors have the right to grant on behalf of all authors and does grant on behalf of all authors, a worldwide licence to the Publishers and its licensees in perpetuity, in all forms, formats and media (whether known now or created in the future), to i) publish, reproduce, distribute, display and store the Contribution, ii) translate the Contribution into other languages, create adaptations, reprints, include within collections and create summaries, extracts and/or, abstracts of the Contribution, iii) create any other derivative work(s) based on the Contribution, iv) to exploit all subsidiary rights in the Contribution, v) the inclusion of electronic links from the Contribution to third party material where-ever it may be located; and, vi) licence any third party to do any or all of the above. 2 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133; this version posted April 15, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf and declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work (relevant funding is mentioned in the acknowledgements); no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work. Contributor and guarantor information - Substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work (JMG, LW, WVDW, SCLK, NB, PK); or the acquisition, analysis (JMG), or interpretation of data (JMG, WVDW, LW, SCLK, NB, PK) for the work; AND - Drafting the work or revising it critically for important intellectual content (JMG, LW, WVDW, SCLK, NB, PK); AND - Final approval of the version to be published (JMG, LW, WVDW, SCLK, NB, PK); AND - Agreement to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved (JMG, LW, WVDW, SCLK, NB, PK). - The corresponding authors (SCLK, NB, PK) attest that all listed authors meet authorship criteria and that no others meeting the criteria have been omitted. Transparency declaration: SCLK, NB and PK, the guarantors of the manuscript, affirm that the manuscript is an honest, accurate, and transparent account of the study being reported; that no important aspects of the study have been omitted; and that any discrepancies from the study as originally planned have been explained. They accept full responsibility for the work and/or the conduct of the study, had access to the data, and controlled the decision to publish. 3 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133; this version posted April 15, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . What is already known? - The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly in Europe and globally since March 2020. - Mitigation and suppression methods have been suggested to slow down or halt the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most European countries have enacted strict suppression measures including lockdown, school closures, enforced social distancing; while Sweden has chosen a different strategy of milder mitigation as of today (10 April 2020). - Different national policy decisions have been justified by socio-geographic differences among countries. Such differences as well as the tempo and stringency of public-health interventions are likely to affect the impact on each country’s mortality and healthcare system. What this study adds? - Individual-based modelling of COVID-19 spread using Swedish demographics and conservative epidemiological assumptions indicates that the peak of the number of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 can be expected in early May under the current strategy, shifted earlier and attenuated with more stringent public health measures. - Healthcare needs are expected to substantially exceed pre-pandemic capacity even if the most aggressive interventions considered were implemented in the coming weeks. In particular the need for intensive care unit beds will be at least 40-fold greater than the pre- pandemic capacity if the current strategy is maintained, and at least 10-fold greater if strategies approximating the most stringent in Europe are introduced by 10 April. - Our model predicts that, using median infection-fatality-rate estimates, at least 96,000 deaths would occur by 1 July without mitigation. Current policies reduce this number by approximately 15%, while even more aggressive social distancing measures, such as adding household isolation or mandated social distancing can reduce this number by more than 50%. 4 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.11.20062133; this version posted April 15, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . Abstract Objectives: During March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly spread globally, and non- pharmaceutical interventions are being used to reduce both the load on the healthcare system as well as overall mortality. Design: Individual-based transmission modelling using Swedish demographic and Geographical Information System data and conservative COVID-19 epidemiological parameters. Setting: Sweden Participants: A model to simulate all 10.09 million Swedish residents. Interventions: 5 different non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions including the mitigation strategy of the Swedish government as of 10 April; isolation of the entire household of confirmed cases; closure of schools and non-essential businesses
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