Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2009–2013 10Th Annual Edition
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10th annual edition Global entertainment and media outlook 2009–2013 10th annual edition Global entertainment and media outlook: 2009–2013 Each year, PricewaterhouseCoopers’ global team of entertainment and media experts generates unbiased, in-depth forecasts for 12 industry segments. Incorporating data from 4 principal regions comprising 48 countries and areas around the world, Global entertainment and media outlook: 2009–2013 combines deep knowledge of local markets with a truly global perspective— a powerful tool for understanding critical business issues. To learn more about the challenges and opportunities ahead for the entertainment and media industry, please visit pwc.com/e&m. Global entertainment and media outlook: 2009–2013 Prepared and edited by: Outlook editorial board: PricewaterhouseCoopers, which provides industry-focused assurance, tax, For the PricewaterhouseCoopers Entertainment & Media Practice: and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its clients and their stakeholders. More than 155,000 people in 153 countries across Deborah Bothun, Principal our network share their thinking, experience, and solutions to develop fresh Bill Cobourn, Partner perspectives and practical advice. James DePonte, Partner Marcel Fenez, Partner PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP Stefanie Kane, Partner 300 Madison Avenue Alexandra Maclean, Global E&M Marketing Manager New York, NY 10017 Pauline Orchard, Global E&M Marketing Leader +1-646-471-4000 James O’Shaughnessy, Partner www.pwc.com Phil Stokes, Partner Many other professionals from the PricewaterhouseCoopers Authored by: Entertainment & Media Practice reviewed and added local expertise to this publication. Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc., a provider of global research and analysis For Wilkofsky Gruen Associates Inc.: of the media, entertainment, and telecommunications industries. www.wilkofskygruen.com David Wilkofsky, Partner Arthur Gruen, Partner Norman D. 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ISBN 978-1-931684-19-4 Global entertainment and media outlook: PricewaterhouseCoopers refers to the network of member firms 2009–2013, Executive summary of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each of which ISBN 978-1-931684-20-0 Global entertainment and media outlook: is a separate and independent legal entity. 2009–2013 2 PricewaterhouseCoopers | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2009–2013 Contents Executive summary PricewaterhouseCoopers Entertainment & Media Practice—Country contacts . 4 Introduction letter . 6 Viewpoint: the global entertainment and media outlook Introduction . 8 The E&M landscape in 2013: “no hiding place” from the migration to digital . 11 Summaries by segment and region Global industry summary . 28 Global market by segment . 33 Global market by region . 56 Methodology . 94 Forecasts and economic analyses of 12 industry segments Internet access spending: wired and mobile . 101 Internet advertising: wired and mobile . 149 Television subscriptions and license fees . 177 Television advertising . 241 Recorded music . 273 Filmed entertainment. 305 Video games . 349 Radio and out-of-home . 395 Consumer magazine publishing . 431 Newspaper publishing . 463 Consumer and educational book publishing. 505 Business-to-business publishing . 543 Index of tables and charts†. 607 To order further copies of this publication, please visit: pwc.com/outlook †Key to symbols used in the tables and charts p = preliminary NA = not available — = no spending that year Totals in tables and charts may not total arithmetically due to rounding. Executive summary 3 PricewaterhouseCoopers Entertainment & Media Practice— Country contacts Global Marcel Fenez [email protected] North America United States Bill Cobourn [email protected] Canada Tracey Jennings [email protected] EMEA Western Europe Austria Johannes Mörtl [email protected] Belgium Eddy Dams [email protected] Denmark John Gabriel Sørensen [email protected] Finland Harri Valkonen [email protected] France François Antarieu [email protected] Germany Frank Mackenroth [email protected] Greece Dinos Michalatos [email protected] Ireland Susan Kilty [email protected] Italy Andrea Samaja [email protected] Netherlands John Middelweerd [email protected] Norway Bjørn Leiknes [email protected] Portugal José Vitorino [email protected] Spain Manuel Martín Espada [email protected] Sweden Nicklas Kullberg [email protected] Switzerland Patrick Balkanyi [email protected] United Kingdom Phil Stokes [email protected] Central and Eastern Europe Czech Republic Petr Sobotnik [email protected] Hungary Manfred Krawietz [email protected] Poland Pawel Ozarowski [email protected] Romania Dinu Bumbacea [email protected] Russia Chris Monteleone [email protected] Turkey Coskun Sen [email protected] Middle East/Africa Israel Joseph Fellus [email protected] Saudi Arabia/Pan Arab† Ian Sanders [email protected] South Africa Vicky Myburgh [email protected] †Comprises Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. 4 PricewaterhouseCoopers | Global entertainment and media outlook: 2009–2013 Asia Pacific Australia Steven Bosiljevac [email protected] China Marcel Fenez [email protected] Hong Kong Marcel Fenez [email protected] India Timmy Kandhari [email protected] Indonesia Nita Ruslim [email protected] Japan Hideaki Zenba [email protected] Malaysia Uthaya Kumar [email protected] New Zealand Grant Dennis [email protected] Pakistan Sohail Hasan [email protected] Philippines Irene Vallestero [email protected] Singapore Boon Chok Tan [email protected] South Korea Kwang-Ho Kim [email protected] Taiwan Han Wu [email protected] Thailand Kajornkiet Aroonpirodkul [email protected] Vietnam David Fitzgerald [email protected] Latin America Argentina Ariel Vidan [email protected] Brazil Estela Vieira [email protected] Chile Rafael Ruano [email protected] Colombia Diego Henao [email protected] Mexico Luis Roberto Martínez del Barrio [email protected] Venezuela Luis Rincon [email protected] Executive summary 5 June 2009 To our clients and friends both in and beyond the entertainment and media industry: Welcome to the 10th annual edition of PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Global entertainment and media outlook, covering the forecast period of 2009–2013. Our forecasts and analyses for this edition focus on 12 major entertainment and media (E&M) industry segments. To reflect the ever-changing nature of the industry, as well as ever-emerging digital revenue streams, we have increased the depth of data for each of the 48 countries and areas covered in the Outlook. Although the global economy was showing signs of weakness, the performance of many of the E&M sectors in the first nine months of 2008 was helped by spending associated with the Beijing Olympics and elections in a number of key markets. However, in the fourth quarter, the negative impact of the economic downturn on the E&M industry was becoming clear. The prevailing unprecedented economic conditions will significantly impact prospects in the near term and may expose weaknesses in some sectors. Against such a backdrop, we believe there will be nowhere to hide from the implications of digital migration. The pace of change is likely to increase with the greater economic pressure, as consumers seek higher value from the content