UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Presidential Beliefs
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Los Angeles Presidential Beliefs, Advisors’ Capacities, and the Formulation of Intervention Policy A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science by Soumitra Chatterjee 2019 © Copyright by Soumitra Chatterjee 2019 ABSTRACT OF DISSERTATION Presidential Beliefs, Advisors’ Capacities, and the Formulation of American Intervention Policy by Soumitra Chatterjee Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science University of California, Los Angeles, 2019 Professor Deborah Larson, Chair ABSTRACT: This dissertation investigates the psychological and rational factors that undergird American presidents’ foreign intervention decisions. While conventional international relations scholarship generally overlooks micro-level variables, decades of psychologically-based research into leaders’ foreign policy decision-making has proven a rich area of study. Even though the psychological approach has enriched International Relations scholarship, it often does so without considering the rational factors that also affect decision-making. This dissertation seeks to bridge that divide by exploring the psychological and rational dynamics within a “foreign policy team,” comprised of an American president and his/her chosen advisors, that influence a president’s decisions of whether and how to intervene in foreign crises. I introduce a new theory which forwards that intervention decisions emerge from the interactions between a president’s beliefs about a particular intervention and a foreign policy team’s relevant expertise and their ability to learn from and adapt to a conflict as it evolves. In pursuit I conduct a quantitative study of ii president’s predilections towards conflict initiation based on their personal experiences of wars and two qualitative comparative case studies which examine Presidents George H.W. Bush and William J. Clinton’s handling the civil war in Bosnia and humanitarian intervention in Somalia. iii The dissertation of Soumitra Chatterjee is approved. Rose McDermott Arthur Stein Marc Trachtenberg Deborah Larson, Chair University of California, Los Angeles 2019 iv For My Family v TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgements vii Vita xi Introduction 1 Chapter 1: Towards a Theory of American Presidential Intervention Decision-Making 7 Chapter 2: Warriors in the White House: The War’s Effects on American Presidents’ 33 Decisions to Deploy Troops Chapter 3: Somalia (1992-1993) 49 Chapter 4: Yugoslavia and Bosnia (1989-1995) 110 Conclusion 161 Appendix A: Table 1: US Presidents and Military Experience 167 Selected Bibliography 172 vi Acknowledgements: I could not have completed this dissertation without generous support from a number of institutions and organizations. I am grateful to Welton Family for their support during my first year of study, UCLA and the Department of Political Science for providing me with summer funding for three summers, the Burkle Center for International Relations for awarding me with the Alice Belkin Memorial Scholarship, Professor David O. Sears for awarding me with UCLA’s Political Psychology Fellowship, the Dirksen Congressional Center for offering me and my colleague Shawn Patterson Jr. a research grant, and the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation. My archival research was helped by the knowledgeable librarians at the George H.W. Bush Library Center in College Station, Texas and the William J. Clinton Library in Little Rock, Arkansas. I would like to specifically thank Zachary Roberts and Michelle Bogart at the Bush Library and Jason Kaplan at the Clinton Library. Their assistance before and during data collection made the process much, much easier. I am also grateful for the comments I received from discussants at the 2016 and 2017 Midwestern Political Science Association Conference. Their feedback helped shape the empirical work in this study. No scholar can get to this point without the benefit of impactful mentors. I first became interested in studying political psychology during my Master’s program in International Relations and Public Diplomacy at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs. Jørgen Johansen, my conflict resolution professor and friend, was incredibly generous in connecting me with his contacts in the Basque Country, Spain for my ethnographical research there. During my interviews with pacifists and other activists, I began to ask my first serious questions about social identities and conflict. My advisors at Maxwell, Dr. G. Matthew vii Bonham and Dr. Michael Schneider also helped nurture my interest. When studying in Washington DC for my final semester, Mike helped connect me with Dr. Stephen P. Cohen of the Brookings Institution who was looking for research assistants for what would become his 2013 book, Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum. My research on Steve’s “paired minority conflicts” theory sparked an interest in psychology, belief formation, decision- making, and conflict that has carried me through this dissertation. These men encouraged me to apply to doctoral programs, helped with the preparation of my application materials, and wrote numerous letters of recommendation. Each challenged me intellectually and showed me, by their examples, how to mentor and encourage others. I am grateful to all of these men for their instruction, kindness, support, and guidance. I am similarly appreciative of the professors I had the pleasure of working with at UCLA. In particular, I am indebted to Dr. John Zaller and the American politics seminar I took during my first year of coursework. Even though I fell asleep during his first lecture (my fault, not his), he forgave me immediately—to this day, I’m still not sure that he was even bothered. Every paper I submitted for that class was responded to with detailed and copious notes, many of which had 2 themes: 1) don’t be sloppy with your prose and 2) don’t get lazy with your analysis. I’ve continuously tried and failed and tried again to implement John’s criticism with everything I’ve written since. I would also like to thank David Sears. David was instrumental in passing my second subfield (Political Psychology). The courses I took with him and the advice he gave me were key to my intellectual and professional advancement. I am truly indebted to the members of my dissertation committee. Art Stein offered comments on several pieces of my work at various points during my doctoral studies. His courses changed the way I approached scholarship (others’ and my own) and his professional viii and intellectual insights continue to shape the way I think. Likewise, I am appreciative of my relationship with Marc Trachtenberg. Throughout my doctoral studies, Marc has shown me kindness and personal and professional encouragement. He has always been generous with his time, insights, and support. He has done everything I have ever asked of him to help me professionally and offered his help even when I didn’t know I needed it. He has provided me with a model for how I can support my own students in the future. For all of these things, I am grateful. Rose McDermott has become a friend and advisor whose empathy and strength of character have inspired me throughout the time I have known her. She has supported every one of my endeavors (no matter how far afield they appeared) and given me constant and valuable feedback on my work. Rose has shown me how to think broadly and specifically in ways I certainly would not have otherwise known. More than anything, I am appreciative of her constancy and honesty. I conclude my (mostly) professional notes of gratitude by expressing my admiration and appreciation of my mentor, Deborah Larson. Over the years I have known Debbie, she has demonstrated a constant professionalism that I strive to emulate. When interacting with students (myself and others), Debbie is always prepared, thoughtful, patient, and demonstrates a commitment to fairness. For me, Debbie has read (often multiple) drafts of my work and given detailed feedback, written so very many letters of recommendation, and always made herself available to me for advice. She has never stopped pushing me to improve my work and to always read more scholarly work. Through various personally trying times during the doctoral process, Debbie showed me support and understanding. Clichéd as it is to say, I am quite sure I would not have completed this dissertation or degree without Debbie Larson. Thank you, Debbie. ix I would like to acknowledge the people who provided me with the non-academic support that helped me throughout this process. I am indebted to Belinda Sunnu, Christiane Allison, and Joseph Brown for their friendship and helping me navigate the ways of UCLA’s bureaucracy. I would also like to acknowledge my many friends whose support and distractions were necessary for me to see through the end of this process. I am especially grateful to Kiran George, Mat Notzon, Rob Miller, Bryan Seeley, Erika Prahl, Jesse Acevedo, Galen Jackson, Steve Palley, and Ryan M. Weldzius. I would like to thank my family, to whom this work is dedicated. I would first like to recognize the loved ones who passed away during this process. My uncle Sudeep Chatterji, my grandmother Lakshmi Chatterjee, and Sumitro “Buban” Pal—who was very much a part of my family during my childhood. They each impacted me during my formative years in enormous ways—ways I did not understand until after they were gone. For all they gave me when I was young, each of their deaths left me with the gift of being more appreciative of the loved ones and time I still have. And so, to my mother, father, and sister I am deeply thankful. Explicit and tacit, your encouragement and support buoys me through hard times and is unquestionably the source of my courage to try hard things like this. Finally, I thank Dr. Mary Mullaney who patiently proofread numerous drafts of this work and made sure I never fully lost perspective on this project, the PhD process, or, much more importantly, the world outside of either of the former.