'I, Daniel Blake' revisited: A micro-econometric evaluation of the UK Work Programme Danula K. Gamage∗ Pedro S. Martinsy Queen Mary University of London Queen Mary University of London CRED & NovaSBE & IZA June 19, 2017 Work in Progress Abstract Although many countries are making greater use of public-private partnerships in em- ployment services, there are few detailed econometric analysis of their effects, in contrast to a large body of small-sample or qualitative case studies. This paper contributes to this literature by examining the case of the UK Work Programme, drawing on popula- tion data of all nearly two-million participants between 2011 and 2016. We also exploit the original structure of the programme to disentangle the impact of different provider and jobseeker characteristics from business cycle, cohort, regional and time-in-programme effects. Moreover, we consider both transitions to employment and transitions out of unemployment. Our main results indicate considerable differences in performance across providers and across jobseeker profiles. The latter results suggest that, by changing the incentive structure offered to providers, the government could obtain better results at the same cost. Keywords: Public employment services, job search, public policy evaluation. JEL Codes: J64, J68, J22. ∗Corresponding author. Email:
[email protected], Address: School of Business and Management, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom. yEmail:
[email protected]. Address: School of Business and Management, Queen Mary, University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom. Web: http://webspace.qmul.ac.uk/pmartins 1 1 Introduction Focusing on the individual case of a fictional elderly widower, the award-winning film 'I, Daniel Blake' portraits a negative facade of UK welfare-to-work programmes over the last years.