2nd International Conference on Multidisciplinary Research & Practice P a g e | 312 A Statistical Study of Increasing Crime Rate against Women in , and Major Cities of Gujarat

D. R. Radadiya1 , A. J. Rajyaguru2 1ICDS Department, Women & Child Development, Navsari. 2 Professor, Department of Statistics, Veer Narmad South Gujarat University, Surat

Abstract- Crime against women is increasing day by day. It is one Non- Cognizable crimes are defined as those which of the main increasing problems in developing country like India. can not be investigated by police without the order of We want to find that is its rate really increasing? Over the years, acompetent magistrate. Police does not initiate investigation total rate of crime increase in India, Gujarat and major cities of in non-cognizable crimes except with magisterial permission. Gujarat. Rate of crime against women by different types is also First schedule of the Cr. P.C. gives the classification of the increasing in different states and also in mega cities. In this paper we tried to study the behavior of the said crime rates and tried to offences of the IPC into cognizable & non-cognizable suggest regression models. categories. The various crimes that are being registered and Keywords- Rate of Crime against women, Rape, Molestation, investigated by different law enforcement agencies are Cruelty, Kidnapping broadly grouped under the following categories for Statistical Information System. I. INTRODUCTION he history of crime is as old as the history of human C. Juvenile T civilization. In the context of present day situation, the Male below the age of 16 years and female below the incidence of crime can take numerous forms and the forms it age of 18 years are considered as juveniles under Juvenile takes are also related to the overall process of growth and Justice Act 2000. socio-economic complexities existing in the present day society. Crime affects everybody irrespective of economic D. Broad classification of crimes under the Indian Penal conditions, social positions or age of the affected persons. Code (ICP): Crime is a major threat to the stability of society and it 1) Crimes Against Body: Murder, Its attempt, Culpable seriously hampers the economic development of the society Homicide not amounting to Murder, Kidnapping & and social harmony. Abduction, Hurt, Causing Death by Negligence; Crime degrades quality of life in many ways. It limits 2) Crimes Against Property: Dacoity, its preparation & movement, thereby impeding access to possible employment assembly, Robbery, Burglary, Theft; and educational opportunities; it also discourages the 3) Crimes Against Public order: Riots, Arson; accumulation of assets. As crime makes people risk averse, it 4) Economic Crimes: Criminal Breach of Trust, Cheating, retards entrepreneurial and other economic activity. Counterfeiting; In India the Criminal Procedure Code (Cr. P.C) 5) Crimes Against Women: Rape, Death, Cruelty by divides all the crimes into two categories: Husband and Relatives, Molestation, Sexual harassment A. Cognizable - Sec.2(c) Cr PC and Importation of Girls; B. Non-cognizable – Sec.2 (l) Cr PC 6) Crimes Against Children: Child Rape, Kidnapping & Abduction of Children, Procreation of minor girls, A. Cognizable Crimes Selling/Buying of girls for Prostitution, Abetment to A cognizable offence or case is defined as the one Suicide, Exposure and Abandonment, Infanticide, which an officer in-charge of a police station may investigate Feticide without the order of a magistrate and affect arrest without 7) Other IPC crimes warrant. The police have a direct responsibility to take immediate action on the receipt of a complaint or of credible E. Crimes under the Special and Local Laws (SLL) information in such crimes, visit the scene of the crime, I. Immoral Traffic (Prevention) Act, 1956; investigate the facts, apprehend (take into custody) the II. Railways Act, 1989; offender (criminal) and arraign him before a court of law III. Registration of Foreigners Act, 1930; having jurisdiction over the matter. Cognizable crimes are IV. Protection of Civil Rights Act, 1955; broadly categorized as those falling either under the Indian V. Indian Passport Act, 1967; Penal Code (IPC) or under the Special and Local Laws (SLL). VI. Essential Commodities Act, 1955; VII. Terrorist & Disruptive Activities Act; B. Non- Cognizable Crimes VIII. Antiquities & Art Treasures Act, 1972

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2nd International Conference on Multidisciplinary Research & Practice P a g e | 313 IX. Dowry Prohibition Act, 1961;  Total incidences of crime against women and rate of total X. Child Marriage Restraint Act, 1929; cognizable crime in Gujarat was 6,211 (11.6) in 2004 XI. Indecent Representation of women (Prohibition Act, which shows increase 10837 (17.6) in 2014 increased by 1986; 6%. XII. Copyright Act, 1957;  Among 53 mega cities of India, 4 mega cities of Gujarat XIII. Prevention Act,1987; have increase in rate of Crime against Women during last XIV. SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act,1989; 10 years. XV. Forest Act, 1927;  Rate of Crime against Women in four major cities of XVI. Other crimes (not specified above) under Special Gujarat shows increase in Rate of crime in Ahmedabad and Local Laws including Cyber Laws under (1.3%), Rajkot (7.7%), Surat (11.4%) and Vadodara Information Technology Act (IT), 2000. (18.0%).

The rate of total crimes (IPC + SLL) was 555.3 in 2004 which rise 581.1 in 2014. Percentage change in 2014 IV. RATE of CRIME AGAINST & over 2004 is 4.6 that shows compound growth rate of 1.2. GUJARAT & MAJOR FOUR CITIES of This study considers only IPC crimes. The reason is GUJARAT that the motivations and enforcement mechanism for SLL Model fitting on Rate of Crime against Women in India, crimes are different from that of IPC crimes. In India, Gujarat (1992-2014) and major cities of Gujarat (2001-2014). statistics on crime are published annually by the National We can fit Growth Model Crime Records Bureau, under the Ministry of Home Affairs. State-wise data is available on number of different crimes Equation of Growth Model: Y=e^ (b +b *t) committed, enforcement mechanism and judicial institutions 0 1 Here, Y= Rate of Crime against Women t= Time period in a standardized format. (Year) In this paper we tried to study the behavior of the said crime rates and tried to suggest regression models. b0= Constant, b1= Coefficient of Time According to Table 1 given in APPENDIX, we can II. STATISTICS of CRIME AGAINST WOMEN in fit the Growth Model for rate of crime against women in India INDIA and Gujarat as below  A total of 72, 29,193 cognizable crimes comprising 28, Y=e^ (2.247+0.037*t) 51,563 (IPC) crimes and 43, 77,630 Where Y= Rate of Crime against Women in India; t= Time Special & Local Laws (SLL) crimes were reported in (1992-2014) 2014, showing an increase of 4.6% over 2004 (60, ß1 = 2.247 (intercept) and ß2 = 0.037 (Coefficient of 28,781). Time) are parameters.  The proportion of IPC crimes committed against women Y=e^ (2.213+0.027*t) towards total IPC crimes has increased during last 10 Where Y= Rate of Crime against Women in Gujarat; t= years from 14.2% in the year 2004 to 56.3% during the Time (1992-2014) year 2014. ß = 2.213 (intercept) and ß = 0.027 (Coefficient of  has reported the highest number of Crime 1 2 Time) are parameters. against women (38467) in 2014 which is 11.4% contribution in all India. We can say that per year Rate of Crime against  has reported Rape cases (5076) and women in India will be increased by 0.037% while in Gujarat Molestation (9609) accounting for 14.0% and 26.5% it will be increased by 0.027%. respectively of total such cases reported in the country.  Highest cases of Kidnapping & Abduction 10.6% (10,626), Dowry Deaths 2.5% (2469) and cases of Sexual Harassment 4.4% (4,435) were reported in Uttar Pradesh.  A total of 6, 16,639 cases of Cognizable crime were reported from 53 mega cities out of total cases reported in the country during 2014.  Amongst 53 cities, (City) accounted for 22.7% (1, 39,707) of total crimes followed by 6.5% (40,361) and Bengaluru 5.2% (31,892) in 2014.

III. STATISTICS of CRIME AGAINST WOMEN in GUJARAT Figure: 1 Graph of Rate of crime against women in India & Gujarat

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2nd International Conference on Multidisciplinary Research & Practice P a g e | 314 The above graph gives you a quick visual assessment of the We can say that per year Rate of Crime against fit of model to the observed values. From this plot, it appears women for type “Cruelty by Husband and Relatives” in that the Growth model follows the upward shape with year by Vadodara and Surat will be increased by 0.087% & 0.064%. year in India and also in Gujarat.

We can say that per year Rate of Crime against women in Ahmedabad and Vadodara will be increased by 0.058% & 0.059% while for Rajkot city this model is not appropriate.

Figure: 4 Graph of Type “Cruelty by Husband & relatives” of Rate of crime against women in major cities of Gujarat

B. Kidnapping and Abduction As we can see in Table 3 per year Rate of Crime Figure: 2 Graph of Rate of crime against women in Major cities of Gujarat against women for type “Kidnapping and Abduction” in India will be increased by 0.044% while in Gujarat it will be V. RATE of CRIME AGAINST WOMEN BY increased by 0.026%. DIFFERENT TYPES in INDIA & GUJARAT & MAJOR CITIES of GUJARAT

As we can see that among the all different type of crimes against women incidence of Cruelty by Husband and relatives is the highest crime against women in India, Gujarat and major four cities of Gujarat state as compare to other types of crime also it shows increasing trend. The second most occurring crime is Kidnapping & Abduction, third is Molestation while fourth is Rape. So now we need to see that within the Gujarat among four major cities which type of crime is high in which city. Figure: 5 Graph of Type “Kidnapping and Abduction” of Rate of crime Here also for Different types of Rate of Crime against women in India & Gujarat against women model fitting is Growth model. We can say that per year Rate of Crime against A. Cruelty by Husband and Relatives: women for type “Kidnapping and Abduction” in Surat and Ahmedabad will be increased by 0.068% & 0.057%. As we can see in Table 2 per year Rate of Crime against women for type “Cruelty by Husband and Relatives” in India will be increased by 0.037% while in Gujarat it will be increased by 0.027%.

Figure: 6 Graph of Type “Kidnapping and Abduction” of Rate of crime against women in major cities of Gujarat

Figure: 3 Graph of Type “Cruelty by Husband & relatives” of Rate of crime against women in India & Gujarat C. Molestation:

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2nd International Conference on Multidisciplinary Research & Practice P a g e | 315 As we can see in Table 4 per year Rate of Crime against women for type “Molestation” in India will be increased by 0.025% while in Gujarat also it will be increased by 0.025%.

Figure: 10 Graph of Type “Rape” of Rate of crime against women in major cities of Gujarat

VI. CLOCKING VIOLENCE OF CRIME AGAINST Figure: 7 Graph of Type “Molestation” of Rate of crime against women in WOMEN India & Gujarat

We can say that per year Rate of Crime against women for type “Molestation” in Surat and Ahmedabad will be increased by 0.058% & 0.055%.

 As we can see from the above clocking violence that incidence of “Cruelty by Husband and relatives” occurred at every 9 minutes in 2005 while in 2014 it occurs at every 4 minutes. “Molestation” was occurred at Figure: 8 Graph of Type “Molestation” of Rate of crime against women in every 15 minutes in 2005 while in 2014 it occurs at every major cities of Gujarat 6 minutes. Incidence of “Rape” was occurred at every 29

minutes in 2005 while in 2014 it occurs at every 14 D. Rape: minutes. As we can see in Table 5, per year Rate of Crime against women for type “Rape” in India will be increased by REFERENCES 0.026% while in Gujarat it will be increased by 0.014%. [1] R.N. Mangoli and Ganapati M. Tarase. Crime against Women in India: A Statistical Review. International Journal of Criminology and Sociological Theory, Vol. 2, No. 2, December 2009, 292-302. [2] Mousumi Dutta and Zakir Husain (2007), Determinants of Crime Rates: Crime, Deterrence and Growth in Post Liberalized India, Journal of Cultural of Cultural Heritage, Tourism Management and Indian Economic Review. [3] Sheela Patel and Sundar Burra(October 1998), Making Cities Safe for Women and Children, Society for Promotion of Area Resource Centers (SPARC) [4] Mary Elisberg and Lori Heise, Researching Violence against Women (A Prectical Guide fir Researcher and Activist) Washington DC, : World Health Organization, Figure: 9 Graph of Type “Rape” of Rate of crime against women in India & PATH; 2005 Gujarat [5] Meera Kosambi, Violence against Women: Reports from India and the Republic of Korea, UNESCO Principal Regional Office for We can say that per year Rate of Crime against Asia and Pacific, Bangkok,1993 women for type “Rape” in Vadodara and Ahmedabad will be [6] www.ncrb.gov.in [7] www.nationmaster.com. increased by 0.095% & 0.084%. [8] www.criminologyresearchcouncil.gov.au [9] www.gujarat-riots.com

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2nd International Conference on Multidisciplinary Research & Practice P a g e | 316 Residual 0.759 21 0.036 [10] www.nipccd.nic.in Total 3.489 22 [11] www.ncdoj.gov Regression 0.550 1 0.550 5.779 0.033 [12] www.mospi.nic.in Ahmedabad Residual 1.143 12 0.095

[13] www.censusindia.gov.in Total 1.694 13

Regression 0.072 1 0.072 1.417 0.257 Rajkot Residual 0.613 12 0.051

Total 0.686 13

APPENDIX Regression 0.918 1 0.918 5.716 0.034 Surat Residual 1.928 12 0.161 Table 1: Model Summary for Rate of Crime against Women Total 2.846 13

Regression 1.710 1 1.710 32.210 0.000 Adjusted R Std. Error of the Vadodara Residual 0.637 12 0.053 Country/ State/ Cities R R Square Square Estimate Total 2.348 13 India 0.942 0.887 0.882 0.092 Gujarat 0.822 0.676 0.660 0.129 Ahmedabad 0.787 0.620 0.593 0.226 Table 2.2: Coefficients for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: “Cruelty Rajkot 0.269 0.072 -0.005 0.223 by Husband & Relatives” Surat 0.517 0.267 0.215 0.309 Vadodara 0.763 0.582 0.552 0.246 Country/Sta Unstandardized Standardized te/Mega Coefficients Coefficients Table 1.1: ANOVA for Rate of Crime against Women cities of Std. Gujarat B Error Beta t Sig. India Year in which Country/ Sum of Mean df F Sig. crime 0.060 0.002 0.984 25.681 0.000 State/ Cities Squares Square committed Regression 1.397 1 1.397 165.581 0.000 (Constant) 0.916 0.032 28.392 0.000 India Residual 0.177 21 0.008 Gujarat Year in which Total 1.574 22 crime 0.052 0.006 0.885 8.689 0.000 Regression 0.725 1 0.725 43.762 0.000 committed Gujarat Residual 0.348 21 0.017 (Constant) 1.361 0.082 16.603 0.000 Total 1.073 22 Ahmedabad Year in which Regression 1.161 1 1.161 22.822 0.000 crime 0.049 0.020 0.570 2.404 0.033 Ahmedabad Residual 0.712 14 0.051 committed Total 1.873 15 (Constant) 2.130 0.348 6.128 0.000 Regression 0.046 1 0.046 0.937 0.352 Rajkot Year in which Rajkot Residual 0.595 12 0.050 crime 0.018 0.015 0.325 1.190 0.257 Total 0.641 13 committed Regression 0.488 1 0.488 5.102 0.040 (Constant) 2.715 0.255 10.666 0.000 Surat Residual 1.340 14 0.096 Surat Year in which Total 1.828 15 crime 0.064 0.027 0.568 2.391 0.034 Regression 1.182 1 1.182 19.467 0.001 committed Vadodara Residual 0.850 14 0.061 (Constant) 0.959 0.451 2.124 0.055 Total 2.032 15 Vadodara Year in which crime 0.087 0.015 0.854 5.675 0.000 Table 1.2: Coefficients for Rate of Crime against Women committed (Constant) 1.063 0.259 4.097 0.001 Unstandardized Standardized Country/ Coefficients Coefficients Table 3: Model Summary for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: State/ Cities B Std. Error Beta t Sig. “Kidnapping & Abduction” India Year 0.037 0.003 0.942 12.868 0.000 (Constant) 2.247 0.040 56.769 0.000 Gujarat Year 0.027 0.004 0.822 6.615 0.000 Country/State/Mega Adjusted R Std. Error of (Constant) 2.213 0.055 39.884 0.000 cities of Gujarat R R Square Square the Estimate Ahmedabad Year 0.058 0.012 0.787 4.777 0.000 India 0.788 0.621 0.603 0.236 (Constant) 2.266 0.198 11.460 0.000 Gujarat 0.655 0.428 0.401 0.210 Rajkot Year 0.014 0.015 0.269 0.968 0.352 Ahmedabad 0.787 0.619 0.587 0.196 (Constant) 3.076 0.251 12.267 0.000 Rajkot 0.358 0.128 0.056 0.292 Surat Year 0.038 0.017 0.517 2.259 0.040 Surat 0.631 0.399 0.349 0.366 (Constant) 1.974 0.271 7.274 0.000 Vadodara 0.675 0.456 0.411 0.231 Vadodara Year 0.059 0.013 0.763 4.412 0.001 (Constant) 1.922 0.216 8.893 0.000 Table 3.1: ANOVA for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: “Kidnapping Table 2: Model Summary for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: & Abduction” “Cruelty by Husband & Relatives” Country/Stat e/Mega cities Sum of Country/State/Mega cities of Adjusted R Std. Error of of Gujarat Squares df Mean Square F Sig. Gujarat R R Square Square the Estimate India Regression 1.916 1 1.916 34.424 0.000 India 0.984 0.969 0.968 0.075 Residual 1.169 21 0.056 Gujarat 0.885 0.782 0.772 0.190 Total 3.085 22 Ahmedabad 0.570 0.325 0.269 0.309 Gujarat Regression 0.693 1 0.693 15.742 0.001 Rajkot 0.325 0.106 0.031 0.226 Residual 0.925 21 0.044 Surat 0.568 0.323 0.266 0.401 Total 1.618 22 Vadodara 0.854 0.729 0.706 0.230 Ahmedabad Regression 0.748 1 0.748 19.495 0.001 Residual 0.460 12 0.038 Table 2.1: ANOVA for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: “Cruelty by Total 1.208 13 Husband & Relatives” Rajkot Regression 0.150 1 0.150 1.765 0.209 Residual 1.022 12 0.085 Total 1.172 13 Country/Stat Surat Regression 1.066 1 1.066 7.958 0.015 e/Mega Sum of Mean df F Sig. Residual 1.608 12 0.134 cities of Squares Square Total 2.675 13 Gujarat Vadodara Regression 0.536 1 0.536 10.053 0.008 Regression 3.692 1 3.692 659.524 0.000 Residual 0.640 12 0.053 India Residual 0.118 21 0.006 Total 1.177 13 Total 3.809 22

Gujarat Regression 2.730 1 2.730 75.507 0.000

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2nd International Conference on Multidisciplinary Research & Practice P a g e | 317 Table 3.2: Coefficients for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: Rajkot Year in which crime 0.003 0.038 0.026 0.092 0.928 “Kidnapping & Abduction” committed (Constant) 0.220 0.643 0.342 0.738 Country/State/ Unstandardized Standardized Surat Year in Mega cities of Coefficients Coefficients which crime 0.058 0.033 0.449 1.740 0.107 Gujarat B Std. Error Beta t Sig. committed India Year in (Constant) -0.940 0.563 -1.667 0.121 which crime 0.044 0.007 0.788 5.867 0.000 committed Vadodara Year in (Constant) 0.080 0.102 0.791 0.438 which crime 0.123 0.039 0.677 3.187 0.008 committed Gujarat Year in which crime 0.026 0.007 0.655 3.968 0.001 (Constant) -1.929 0.656 -2.942 0.012 committed (Constant) 0.363 0.090 4.018 0.001 Table 5: Model Summary for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: “Rape” Ahmedabad Year in which crime 0.057 0.013 0.787 4.415 0.001 committed Country/State/Mega Adjusted R Std. Error of the R R Square (Constant) 0.195 0.221 0.885 0.394 cities of Gujarat Square Estimate Rajkot Year in India 0.881 0.776 0.765 0.097 which crime 0.026 0.019 0.358 1.329 0.209 Gujarat 0.376 0.141 0.100 0.240 committed Ahmedabad 0.736 0.541 0.503 0.337 (Constant) 0.786 0.329 2.393 0.034 Rajkot 0.601 0.361 0.308 0.322 Surat Year in Surat 0.742 0.551 0.514 0.271 which crime 0.068 0.024 0.631 2.821 0.015 Vadodara 0.844 0.713 0.689 0.263 committed (Constant) -0.317 0.412 -0.768 0.457 Vadodara Year in Table 5.1: ANOVA for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: “Rape” which crime 0.049 0.015 0.675 3.171 0.008 committed Country/State/Mega Sum of Mean (Constant) 0.085 0.260 0.327 0.749 df F Sig. cities of Gujarat Squares Square

Regression 0.688 1 0.688 72.758 0.000 Table 4: Model Summary for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: India Residual 0.199 21 0.009

“Molestation” Total 0.886 22

Regression 0.199 1 0.199 3.449 0.077 Country/State/Meg Adjusted Std. Error of Gujarat Residual 1.212 21 0.058 R R Square a cities of Gujarat R Square the Estimate Total 1.411 22

India 0.767 0.588 0.569 0.148 Regression 1.609 1 1.609 14.158 0.003 Gujarat 0.618 0.382 0.352 0.220 Ahmedabad Residual 1.363 12 0.114

Ahmedabad 0.668 0.446 0.400 0.269 Total 2.972 13

Rajkot 0.026 0.001 -0.083 0.571 Regression 0.706 1 0.706 6.792 0.023 Surat 0.449 0.202 0.135 0.500 Rajkot Residual 1.247 12 0.104

Vadodara 0.677 0.458 0.413 0.582 Total 1.953 13

Regression 1.082 1 1.082 14.732 0.002 Surat Residual 0.881 12 0.073 Table 4.1: ANOVA for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: “Molestation” Total 1.963 13

Regression 2.064 1 2.064 29.802 0.000 Country/State/ Sum of Vadodara Residual 0.831 12 0.069 Mega cities of df Mean Square F Sig. Squares Total 2.894 13 Gujarat Regression 0.654 1 0.654 30.029 0.000 India Residual 0.457 21 0.022 Table 5.2: Coefficients for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: “Rape”

Total 1.111 22

Regression 0.627 1 0.627 12.961 0.002 Unstandardized Standardized Gujarat Residual 1.016 21 0.048 Coefficients Coefficients Total 1.643 22 Country/State/Mega Std. Regression 0.700 1 0.700 9.666 0.009 cities of Gujarat B Error Beta t Sig. Ahmedabad Residual 0.869 12 0.072 India Year in which Total 1.568 13 crime 0.026 0.003 0.881 8.530 0.000 Regression 0.003 1 0.003 0.008 0.928 committed Rajkot Residual 3.915 12 0.326 (Constant) 0.230 0.042 5.478 0.000 Total 3.917 13 Gujarat Year in which Regression 0.758 1 0.758 3.029 0.107 crime 0.014 0.008 0.376 1.857 0.077 Surat Residual 3.005 12 0.250 committed

Total 3.763 13 (Constant) -0.527 0.104 -5.093 0.000

Regression 3.443 1 3.443 10.154 0.008 Ahmedabad Year in which crime 0.084 0.022 0.736 3.763 0.003 Vadodara Residual 4.068 12 0.339 committed Total 7.511 13 (Constant) -1.487 0.380 -3.917 0.002 Rajkot Year in which Table 4.2: Coefficients for Type of Rate of Crime against Women: crime 0.056 0.021 0.601 2.606 0.023 “Molestation” committed (Constant) -1.237 0.363 -3.407 0.005 Surat Year in which Country/State/ Unstandardized Standardized crime 0.069 0.018 0.742 3.838 0.002 Mega cities of Coefficients Coefficients committed Gujarat B Std. Error Beta t Sig. (Constant) -1.223 0.305 -4.009 0.002 India Year in Vadodara Year in which which crime 0.025 0.005 0.767 5.480 0.000 crime 0.095 0.017 0.844 5.459 0.000 committed committed (Constant) 0.903 0.064 14.196 0.000 (Constant) -2.320 0.296 -7.829 0.000 Gujarat Year in which crime -0.025 0.007 -0.618 -3.600 0.002 committed (Constant) 0.829 0.095 8.746 0.000 Ahmedabad Year in which crime 0.055 0.018 0.668 3.109 0.009 committed (Constant) -0.502 0.303 -1.658 0.123

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