Climate Risk Profile
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FACT SHEET CLIMATE RISK PROFILE EGYPT COUNTRY OVERVIEW Throughout Egypt’s extensive history, its inhabitants have relied heavily upon the Nile and the productive agricultural sector it nurtures. Modern Egypt has one of the most diversified economies in the Middle East, with robust service, manufacturing, agricultural, and tourism sectors. However, Egypt’s dependence on the Nile River for 95 percent of its freshwater leaves the country vulnerable to climate shocks and transboundary water conflict. Egypt shares land borders with Libya to the West, Israel and the Gaza Strip to the East, and the Sudan to the South. Egypt’s relationship with Ethiopia, home to the source of the majority of the Nile River’s flow, is both critical and strained. Egypt has undergone two significant political transitions since 2011, and the current government is engaged in significant development-oriented reforms including a massive land reclamation project known as the “1.5-Million Feddan Project,” which seeks to draw water from aquifers ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN EGYPT and divert water from the Nile River to convert desert area into productive land. The upstream construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, will further divert the Nile’s water, implicating Egypt’s water security. Other reforms include efforts to improve the social safety net, decrease the public debt, and increase economic growth and employment. High rates of inflation, increases in food prices, high unemployment, and a poverty rate of 25 percent continue to plague the economy, despite recent healthy growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Further, Egypt’s economy remains sensitive to climate shocks due to its reliance on the Nile and the important role of agriculture in the Egyptian economy. Through its long-recorded history, Egypt has been vulnerable to climatic changes, resulting in famine and political unrest during periods of drought. (4,14,17,27,28,30,33,34) October 2018 This document was prepared under the Climate Integration Support Facility Blanket Purchase Agreement AID-OAA-E-17-0008, Order Number AID-OAA-BC-17-00042, and is meant to provide a brief overview of climate risk issues. The key resources at the end of the document provide more in-depth country and sectoral analysis. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID. CLIMATE SUMMARY Egypt’s climate ranges from semiarid in the north, with 50 millimeters (mm) to 200 mm of rainfall per year, to hyperarid in the south and interior which receives about 1 mm of rain per year and in some years there will be no annual precipitation. Egypt has two dominant seasons, a mild winter (November to April) and a hot summer (May to October). Months with the highest average rainfall across the country are December, January, and February, while April through November receive less than 3 mm average monthly rainfall. Average annual temperature is lowest in the Sinai Peninsula highlands (20°C), and highest in the southern interior near Aswan (26°C). The Nile Delta, home to most of the Egyptian population, has an average annual temperature of 21°C. While summertime daily maximum temperatures along the coast in Alexandria are typically around 30°C, they are around 41°C in Aswan. Average winter daily maximum temperatures in Alexandria and Aswan are 18°C and 23°C, respectively. Hot wind storms, known in Egypt as “khamsin”, carry sand and dust swept from across the northern coast of Africa, Such storms, which typically occur between March and May,can increase the temperature by 20°C in two hours, and they may last for days. (9,14,30,33) HISTORICAL CLIMATE FUTURE CLIMATE Climate trends include: Projected changes include: • Average decrease in total annual • Increase in mean annual temperature of between precipitation of 6 percent per 30 year-period 2°C to 3°C by 2050, with highest increases in the from 1901-2013, with significantly higher summer months of July-September and more decrease of 22 percent in total annual rapid increases in the interior regions precipitation from 1983-2013. • Projections for sea level rise1 in the Nile delta • Decreases in precipitation are strongest in suggest an increase of between 3 cm and 61 cm the winter and early spring months. by 2085 with increases in Alexandria of between • There is evidence of increased frequency 20 cm and 82 cm. and severity of flash flooding in recent years • While projected extent of precipitation changes • 0.1°C per decade increase in average annual remains highly uncertain, there is a general temperature from 1901-2013, increasing to tendency toward slightly drier conditions in most 0.5°C per decade increase in average annual months by 2050. Projected drying is strongest in temperature from 1983-2013. the dry months of June-October • Greater warming has been observed during • Increase in heavy rains, and potential increase in the summer than the winter (0.31°C and drought, particularly due to increased 0.07°C per decade increase in average temperatures by 2050 temperatures since 1960, respectively) • Increased intensity and frequency of dust storms • Daily minimum temperatures have increased and sand storms throughout Egypt, with fewer cool nights and • Significant increase in duration of long-lasting more warm nights since 1960. (14,30,33) heat waves, with likely increase in duration of between 9 to 77 days by 2085 • Decrease in duration of long-lasting cold spells, with likely decrease in duration of 3 to 6 days by 2085. (14,30,33) 1 Significant land subsidence adds to increases in the Mediterranean Sea level CLIMATE RISK IN EGYPT: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 1 SECTOR IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES WATER RESOURCES Climate Stressors and Climate Risks Because rainfall is scarce in much of Egypt, the WATER RESOURCES Egyptian population and economy rely on the Nile River Stressors Risks for about 95 percent of all water needs. There is Increased variability in Nile River significant uncertainty regarding the anticipated impacts Increased flow of climate change on the flow of the Nile River. Some temperatures Increased water demand studies suggest increased evaporation due to rising Decreased water availability for temperatures could decrease water availability in the Changes in irrigation, drinking, and energy precipitation Nile River by up to 70 percent, while other studies generation suggest the projected increases of rainfall in the Decreased hydropower supply Ethiopian highlands and Blue Nile River Basin could Increased drought increase flow by 15 to 25 percent. With the Nile River’s Increased domestic and transboundary water conflict sources located outside Egypt, the country is highly vulnerable to changing climate conditions and shocks both within and outside its borders. Given uncertainties in future flow, there is need to prepare for potential changes in both flood and drought incidence in Egypt. The vast majority of the Egyptian population lives in close proximity to the Nile River, leaving them highly exposed to floods. The urban poor and marginalized communities are particularly vulnerable to flood impacts. Projected increases in temperature and potential decreases in rainfall throughout Egypt will likely increase water demand, particularly by the agricultural sector, which consumes about 80 percent of all freshwater resources. Increases in water demand are likely to be exacerbated by significant population increases both within Egypt, which is expected to be home to 111 million people by 2025, and in the countries along the Nile River, which are expected to host around a billion people by 2050. This combination of population growth and increased water demand could result in increased internal conflict among water uses. Such conflict would likely disproportionately affect women, who often have limited power in decision-making and can be exposed to greater risk of physical and sexual violence (e.g., when traveling farther distances to access water). Additionally, planned dams upstream of Egypt, which are expected to provide a large amount of clean energy for the continent, also have the potential to significantly cut flow of the Nile River to Egypt. This could impact not only agricultural, industrial, and domestic water uses, but also cut hydropower generation at Egypt’s Aswan dam. Thus, the interaction of climatic and international pressures on the Nile River have the potential to not only affect economic activity and water availability in Egypt but also to raise tensions within Egypt and among Egypt’s neighbors. (4,7,8,9,10,27,33,35) AGRICULTURE Climate Stressors and Climate Risks The fertility of the Nile Basin has allowed for robust AGRICULTURE agriculture along the river’s banks for millennia, and Stressors Risks agriculture remains an important part of the Egyptian Increased water demand economy. Agriculture accounts for 12 percent of the Increased Reduced crop yields GDP and around 30 percent of employment in Egypt, temperatures with many more engaged in informal or unpaid Changing incidence of plant Increased pathogens agriculture work, particularly women. However, only 2.8 drought percent of Egypt’s land is arable, largely in areas along frequency and Increased livestock disease and mortality the Nile and some oases in the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt’s duration Loss of agricultural employment agriculture is predominantly irrigated and almost entirely Changes in dependent on the flow of the Nile River, with a small rainfall Decreased water availability for fraction of water sourced from aquifers. Increases in patterns irrigation temperature and decreases in the already limited rain Salt water intrusion Sea level rise are likely to result in an increase in water demand for all Loss of arable land crops produced in Egypt. The increased water demand combined with increased variability and potential overall decreased flow of the Nile River leave agriculture CLIMATE RISK IN EGYPT: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 2 particularly vulnerable to changing climate conditions. Further, as most of Egypt’s agriculture takes place in the Nile Delta, which is below sea-level and sits along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, sea level rise has the potential to impact yields.