FACT SHEET

CLIMATE RISK PROFILE

EGYPT

COUNTRY OVERVIEW Throughout Egypt’s extensive history, its inhabitants have relied heavily upon the Nile and the productive agricultural sector it nurtures. Modern Egypt has one of the most diversified economies in the Middle East, with robust service, manufacturing, agricultural, and tourism sectors. However, Egypt’s dependence on the Nile River for 95 percent of its freshwater leaves the country vulnerable to climate shocks and transboundary water conflict. Egypt shares land borders with Libya to the West, Israel and the Gaza Strip to the East, and the Sudan to the South. Egypt’s relationship with Ethiopia, home to the source of the majority of the Nile River’s flow, is both critical and strained. Egypt has undergone two significant political transitions since 2011, and the current government is engaged in significant development-oriented reforms including a massive land reclamation project known as the “1.5-Million Feddan Project,” which seeks to draw water from aquifers ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN EGYPT and divert water from the Nile River to convert desert area into productive land. The upstream construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, will further divert the Nile’s water, implicating Egypt’s water security. Other reforms include efforts to improve the social safety net, decrease the public debt, and increase economic growth and employment. High rates of inflation, increases in food prices, high unemployment, and a poverty rate of 25 percent continue to plague the economy, despite recent healthy growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Further, Egypt’s economy remains sensitive to climate shocks due to its reliance on the Nile and the important role of agriculture in the Egyptian economy. Through its long-recorded history, Egypt has been vulnerable to climatic changes, resulting in famine and political unrest during periods of drought. (4,14,17,27,28,30,33,34)

October 2018 This document was prepared under the Climate Integration Support Facility Blanket Purchase Agreement AID-OAA-E-17-0008, Order Number AID-OAA-BC-17-00042, and is meant to provide a brief overview of climate risk issues. The key resources at the end of the document provide more in-depth country and sectoral analysis. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID.

CLIMATE SUMMARY Egypt’s climate ranges from semiarid in the north, with 50 millimeters (mm) to 200 mm of rainfall per year, to hyperarid in the south and interior which receives about 1 mm of rain per year and in some years there will be no annual precipitation. Egypt has two dominant seasons, a mild winter (November to April) and a hot summer (May to October). Months with the highest average rainfall across the country are December, January, and February, while April through November receive less than 3 mm average monthly rainfall. Average annual temperature is lowest in the Sinai Peninsula highlands (20°C), and highest in the southern interior near Aswan (26°C). The Nile Delta, home to most of the Egyptian population, has an average annual temperature of 21°C. While summertime daily maximum temperatures along the coast in Alexandria are typically around 30°C, they are around 41°C in Aswan. Average winter daily maximum temperatures in Alexandria and Aswan are 18°C and 23°C, respectively. Hot wind storms, known in Egypt as “khamsin”, carry sand and dust swept from across the northern coast of Africa, Such storms, which typically occur between March and May,can increase the temperature by 20°C in two hours, and they may last for days. (9,14,30,33)

HISTORICAL CLIMATE FUTURE CLIMATE Climate trends include: Projected changes include: • Average decrease in total annual • Increase in mean annual temperature of between precipitation of 6 percent per 30 year-period 2°C to 3°C by 2050, with highest increases in the from 1901-2013, with significantly higher summer months of July-September and more decrease of 22 percent in total annual rapid increases in the interior regions precipitation from 1983-2013. • Projections for sea level rise1 in the Nile delta • Decreases in precipitation are strongest in suggest an increase of between 3 cm and 61 cm the winter and early spring months. by 2085 with increases in Alexandria of between • There is evidence of increased frequency 20 cm and 82 cm. and severity of flash flooding in recent years • While projected extent of precipitation changes • 0.1°C per decade increase in average annual remains highly uncertain, there is a general temperature from 1901-2013, increasing to tendency toward slightly drier conditions in most 0.5°C per decade increase in average annual months by 2050. Projected drying is strongest in temperature from 1983-2013. the dry months of June-October • Greater warming has been observed during • Increase in heavy rains, and potential increase in the summer than the winter (0.31°C and drought, particularly due to increased 0.07°C per decade increase in average temperatures by 2050 temperatures since 1960, respectively) • Increased intensity and frequency of dust storms • Daily minimum temperatures have increased and sand storms throughout Egypt, with fewer cool nights and • Significant increase in duration of long-lasting more warm nights since 1960. (14,30,33) heat waves, with likely increase in duration of between 9 to 77 days by 2085 • Decrease in duration of long-lasting cold spells, with likely decrease in duration of 3 to 6 days by 2085. (14,30,33)

1 Significant land subsidence adds to increases in the Mediterranean Sea level

CLIMATE RISK IN EGYPT: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 1 SECTOR IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES

WATER RESOURCES Climate Stressors and Climate Risks Because rainfall is scarce in much of Egypt, the WATER RESOURCES Egyptian population and economy rely on the Nile River Stressors Risks for about 95 percent of all water needs. There is Increased variability in Nile River significant uncertainty regarding the anticipated impacts Increased flow of climate change on the flow of the Nile River. Some temperatures Increased water demand studies suggest increased evaporation due to rising Decreased water availability for temperatures could decrease water availability in the Changes in irrigation, drinking, and energy precipitation Nile River by up to 70 percent, while other studies generation suggest the projected increases of rainfall in the Decreased hydropower supply Ethiopian highlands and Blue Nile River Basin could Increased drought increase flow by 15 to 25 percent. With the Nile River’s Increased domestic and transboundary water conflict sources located outside Egypt, the country is highly vulnerable to changing climate conditions and shocks both within and outside its borders. Given uncertainties in future flow, there is need to prepare for potential changes in both flood and drought incidence in Egypt. The vast majority of the Egyptian population lives in close proximity to the Nile River, leaving them highly exposed to floods. The urban poor and marginalized communities are particularly vulnerable to flood impacts. Projected increases in temperature and potential decreases in rainfall throughout Egypt will likely increase water demand, particularly by the agricultural sector, which consumes about 80 percent of all freshwater resources. Increases in water demand are likely to be exacerbated by significant population increases both within Egypt, which is expected to be home to 111 million people by 2025, and in the countries along the Nile River, which are expected to host around a billion people by 2050. This combination of population growth and increased water demand could result in increased internal conflict among water uses. Such conflict would likely disproportionately affect women, who often have limited power in decision-making and can be exposed to greater risk of physical and sexual violence (e.g., when traveling farther distances to access water). Additionally, planned dams upstream of Egypt, which are expected to provide a large amount of clean energy for the continent, also have the potential to significantly cut flow of the Nile River to Egypt. This could impact not only agricultural, industrial, and domestic water uses, but also cut hydropower generation at Egypt’s Aswan dam. Thus, the interaction of climatic and international pressures on the Nile River have the potential to not only affect economic activity and water availability in Egypt but also to raise tensions within Egypt and among Egypt’s neighbors. (4,7,8,9,10,27,33,35)

AGRICULTURE Climate Stressors and Climate Risks The fertility of the Nile Basin has allowed for robust AGRICULTURE agriculture along the river’s banks for millennia, and Stressors Risks agriculture remains an important part of the Egyptian Increased water demand economy. Agriculture accounts for 12 percent of the Increased Reduced crop yields GDP and around 30 percent of employment in Egypt, temperatures with many more engaged in informal or unpaid Changing incidence of plant Increased pathogens agriculture work, particularly women. However, only 2.8 drought percent of Egypt’s land is arable, largely in areas along frequency and Increased livestock disease and mortality the Nile and some oases in the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt’s duration Loss of agricultural employment agriculture is predominantly irrigated and almost entirely Changes in dependent on the flow of the Nile River, with a small rainfall Decreased water availability for fraction of water sourced from aquifers. Increases in patterns irrigation temperature and decreases in the already limited rain Salt water intrusion Sea level rise are likely to result in an increase in water demand for all Loss of arable land crops produced in Egypt. The increased water demand combined with increased variability and potential overall decreased flow of the Nile River leave agriculture

CLIMATE RISK IN EGYPT: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 2 particularly vulnerable to changing climate conditions. Further, as most of Egypt’s agriculture takes place in the Nile Delta, which is below sea-level and sits along the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, sea level rise has the potential to impact yields. Water with elevated salinity will likely penetrate far into the delta, potentially leaving current cropland unsuitable for production and significantly affecting fisheries in the lakes in and around the delta. Increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will have different impacts for Egypt’s primary crops. Cotton yields, for example, could increase by around 20 percent by 2060 largely due to the impact of increasing temperatures lengthening growing seasons, while yields for crops such as wheat, rice, maize, and citrus could decrease between 10 percent and 20 percent over the same time horizon. Changing incidence of plant pathogens due to changing rainfall patterns and increased temperatures could also affect crop yields. Livestock rearing, which is dominated by cattle, water buffalo, sheep, and goats, may be impacted by increases in heat stress and climate-related changes to the distribution of diseases such as Rift Valley fever and bluetongue disease, both of which have already negatively impacted production. Decreased agricultural and livestock productivity would affect employment in the agricultural sector and potentially increase prices of agricultural products in Egypt. While some producers could benefit from increased prices, this could also decrease the purchasing power of Egyptian consumers, increase food insecurity, and potentially heighten domestic tensions. These impacts could disproportionately affect women and increase their risk to gender-based violence. (1,4,8,9,12,24,33)

HEALTH The anticipated increase in extreme weather events, Climate Stressors and Climate Risks particularly heat waves, dust storms, and storms along HUMAN HEALTH Risks the Mediterranean coast, are likely to have a significant Stressors impact on human health in Egypt. The urban poor are at Increased heat stress Increased particularly high risk to such impacts. Heat stress temperatures Increased cardiopulmonary already results in increased mortality, with over 100 disease More frequent deaths recorded in 2015 due to extreme summer heat Increased injury and mortality and/or intense from flooding and storms waves. The combination of increasing temperatures and dust and sand longer heat waves can be expected to increase heat- storms Potential increase in vector-borne disease related deaths, particularly among the elderly, for whom Increased mortality could increase from the baseline of 1 death per drought and Decreased nutrition and food 100,000 to 47 deaths per 100,000 by 2080. Increased flooding security heat stress could also affect labor productivity, Sea level rise Reduced water quality and particularly for workers carrying out heavy labor (e.g., availability agricultural and industrial workers). The intensity and frequency of dust storms and sand storms, already a common feature of Egyptian weather, are likewise expected to increase with climate change. Such dust and sand storms are associated with numerous infectious diseases (e.g., influenza and pneumonia) and non-infectious diseases (e.g., asthma and pulmonary fibrosis) and pose significant respiratory health risks to children, the elderly, and those with chronic cardiopulmonary diseases. Similarly, projected increases in heavier rainfall and potential increases in inland river flooding, which already affects nearly 1 million people annually as of 2010, may cause acute health impacts through injury and drowning, and result in longer-term health impacts through decreased food security, decreased drinking water quality, and an increase in waterborne and vector-borne diseases. Malnutrition and water scarcity will likely have greatest impact on marginalized and vulnerable groups, particularly women and young children. Women are at greater risk of anemia due to malnutrition, and they also experience increased burden during water scarcity due to their responsibility for collecting and managing household water supplies. Egypt has made significant progress in decreasing the prevalence of vector- and waterborne diseases, and deaths due to diarrheal disease are expected to continue to fall, even with climate change. However, climate change threatens to slow that progress. (3,8,9,22,25,35)

CLIMATE RISK IN EGYPT: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 3 TOURISM Climate Stressors and Climate Risks Tourism is a key economic sector in Egypt, and TOURISM widespread economic impacts result from tourism Stressors Risks downturns. Millions of tourists travel to visit Egypt’s Increased Damage to ancient monuments ancient monuments, beaches, and coral reefs. Increasing temperatures and antiquities temperatures and changing rainfall patterns threaten the longevity of Egypt’s primary draw for tourism, its famous Changing rain Potential for coral reef patterns ancient Egyptian palaces, temples, monuments, and deterioration in the Red Sea Increased artifacts. For example, Luxor, the home of Pharaonic Increased beach erosion tombs and many of Egypt’s antiquities and treasures, flooding traditionally has a dry and predictable climate, ideal for Sea level rise Damage to tourism infrastructure the preservation of antiquities. However, increased rains, temperature, and humidity, interacting with increasing population may damage structures that have survived for millennia. Increasingly frequent rain events in Egypt’s dry interior have eroded mud-brick structures and have the potential to flood archeological sites. Increased temperatures have hampered official archeological excavation, and the heat has resulted in the cracking of granite structures in Aswan, damaging ancient inscriptions. The speed of temple deterioration increased following the Aswan dam, combined with year- round agriculture. Temples suffer from rising levels of ground water and increased humidity from evaporation, leading to salt crystallization and eventually shattering temple sandstones. Egypt’s warm climate and location along two warm water seas also make it an attractive beach destination. However, erosion and inundation of beaches affected by sea level rise and coastal storms may adversely impact the attractiveness of Egypt as a beach destination. Sea level rise can also impact coastal tourism infrastructure and hotels. Nearly half of the area dedicated to the tourism sector in Alexandria’s tourism industry could be underwater with only 0.5 meters of sea-level rise. Warming in the Red Sea is expected to exceed the global rate of oceanic temperature change. As temperature increase would contribute drives coral bleaching, warming seas would reduce the recreational appeal of coral reefs. Degradation of many of the tourism attractions in Egypt has the potential to discourage visitors and shrink the tourism sector. (5,8,9,11,15,16,26,29)

COASTAL ZONES Climate Stressors and Climate Risks A little over one third of Egypt’s coast runs along the COASTAL ZONES Mediterranean Sea, with the remainder stretching along Stressors Risks the Red Sea and the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba. The coasts are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, salt Sea level rise Damage to coastal infrastructure water intrusion, and coastal storms, all of which affect Increased Salt water intrusion sustainability of the abundant natural resources (both temperatures Reduced tourism industry biological and mineral), maritime transport arteries, Increasing infrastructure, and population centers. With limited social storms and Loss of agriculture and fishery mobility and adaptive capacity, women and their storm surge productivity livelihoods have increased vulnerability to these impacts. Around 15 percent of Egypt’s total population is in the coastal zones, primarily along the Mediterranean Sea. The shoreline along the Mediterranean Sea has a relatively low elevation, with large swaths of the Nile Delta below sea level, leaving it especially vulnerable to sea level rise. In addition to major population centers, such as Alexandria, Rosetta, Damietta, Port Said, Suez, and Hurghada, coastal zones host a large proportion of industrial activities, particularly in the petroleum and chemical sectors. Inundation due to sea level rise and coastal storms therefore threatens lives, property, environmental health, and the structural integrity and functioning of critical infrastructure. The inundation combined with salt water intrusion threatens agriculture in the coastal areas along the Nile Delta. Saltwater intrusion may also significantly impact important fisheries. For example, saltwater combined with potential decreases in Nile River flow, may result in increased salinity of the lakes in and around the Nile Delta, making these habitats unsuitable for many types of fish. These impacts, along with increasing temperatures, are expected to affect breeding grounds and food chains for fish and other marine life, particularly in the coastal wetlands. The effects of sea level

CLIMATE RISK IN EGYPT: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 4 rise, increased coastal storms, and increasing temperatures on beaches, biodiversity, and coral reefs are likely to have a significant negative impact on tourism and Egypt’s broader economy. (2,8,9,13,16,19,21,33)

POLICY CONTEXT Egypt lacks a comprehensive legal framework for climate change adaptation and mitigation, and implementation of climate policies is split among multiple institutional bodies. However, Egypt has taken several actions toward both climate mitigation and adaptation through isolated projects, such as an effort to transition El Gouna City to carbon neutrality, and through several strategies and institutions dedicated to climate adaptation. For example, the Egyptian Cabinet released a National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change in 2011, and, in 2013, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation developed a climate change strategy targeting adaptation and increasing water use efficiency. Gender considerations in the context of climate change have received significant attention from the government, with the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency releasing a National Strategy on Mainstreaming Gender in Climate Change in Egypt. The country has also been active in the international climate policy arena and was an early signatory of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. Although Egypt’s individual adaptation plans and policies are relatively robust, implementation of these policies faces significant barriers. Other development priorities often command more resources and attention from the government. (6,8,20,31,32)

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK NATIONAL STRATEGIES AND PLANS Implementation of climate initiatives is split among • Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt two institutions: the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Vision 2030 (2016) Agency (EEAA) and Ministry of State for • Egypt Third National Communication Under Environmental Affairs. The first climate unit was the United Nations Framework Convention on established in the EEAA in 1992. This later evolved Climate Change (2016) into the Central Department for Climate Change. A • Egypt Intended Nationally Determined National Committee of Climate Change was Contribution (2015) established in 1997 to coordinate climate-related • Proposed Climate Change Adaptation actions among various institutions, with EEAA Strategy for the Ministry of Water Resources serving as chair. The Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation in Egypt (2013) and Irrigation (MWRI), the Ministry of Agriculture • National Strategy for Mainstreaming Gender and Land Reclamation (MALR), the Ministry of in Climate Change in Egypt (2011) Electricity and Energy (MOEE) and the New and • Renewable Energy Authority have roles in the Egypt’s National Strategy for Adaptation to implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction policies. (6,17,19) (2011) • National Environmental, Economic, and Development Study for Climate Change (2010) • Promulgating the Environmental Law and its Executive Regulation (1994)

CLIMATE RISK IN EGYPT: COUNTRY RISK PROFILE | 5 KEY RESOURCES2 1. Arab republic of Egypt. “Intended Nationally determined contributions as per United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change 2. Bohannon, John. 2010. “The Nile Delta’s Sinking Future.” Science. 3. Cairo Climate Talks. 2017. “Climate Change and Public Health.” 4. CIA. 2018. “Egypt.” World Factbook 5. Chaidez, V. Et Al. 2017. “Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature.” Scientific Reports. 6. Climate Policy Observer. 2018. “Egypt: National Policy.” 7. Coniff, Richard. 2017. “The Vanishing Nile: A Great River Faces a Multitude of Threats.” Yale360. 8. EEAA. 2011. National Strategy for Mainstreaming Gender in Climate Change in Egypt. 9. EEAA. 2016. Egypt Third National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 10. El Hatow, Lama. “Impacts of Climate Change on Egypt and the Nile River.” Erasmus University 11. El-Sayed Hassan, Khaled. 2013. “The Future Impacts of Climate Change on Egyptian Population” International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. 12. El-Sherif, M. 2018. “Egypt.” FAO. 13. Feidi, Izzat. 2015. “Influence of climate change on fisheries resources in the Arab region.” FAO. 14. GERICS. 2016. “Climate-Fact-Sheet: Egypt”. 15. Hughes, T. P. et Al. 2003. “Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs.” Science 16. IDSC. 2011. Egypt’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction 17. Manning, Joseph. Et al. 2017. “Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt.” Nature Communications 18. MSEA. 2010. Egypt National Environmental, Economic and Development Study (NEEDS) for Climate Change. 19. Nour El-Din, Mohamed M. 2013. Proposed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Ministry of Water Resources & Irrigation in Egypt. Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation 20. Nachmany, Michal. Et al. 2015. “Climate Change Legislation in Egypt.” The 2015 Global Climate Legislation Study. Grantham Institute. 21. Pauly, Daniel. Cheung, William W. 2017. “Sound physiological knowledge and principles in modeling shrinking of fishes under climate change.” Global Change Biology. 22. Scwitzer, MD. Et al. 2018. “Lung health in era of climate change and dust storms.” Environmental Research 23. Saim, Mohamed S. Eltahir, Elfaitih A. 2017. “Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow.” Nature Climate Change 24. Smith, Joel. Et al. 2014. “Egypt’s Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change.” Climate Research. 25. Soniak, Matt. 2017. “Giant Middle East dust storm caused by a changing climate, not human conflict.” Princeton News. 26. Tawfic Ahmed, Mohamed. Hefny, Manal. 2000. “Climate Change and Tourism: An Egyptian Perspective.” Suez Canal University. 27. UNDP. 2018 :” Egypt.” Climate Change Adaptation. 28. UNDP. 2018. “National Adaptation Plans in focus: Lessons from Egypt.” 29. UNEP. 2018. “How climate change and population growth threaten Egypt’s ancient treasures.” 30. USAID. 2015. “Climate Change Information Fact Sheet: Egypt.” 31. UNFCCC. 2018. “Egypt: Ratification Status.”; UNFCCC. 2018. “Paris Agreement—Status of Ratification.” 32. UNFCCC. 2018. “Paris Agreement—Status of Ratification.” 33. World Bank. 2018. “Egypt Dashboard.” Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 34. World Bank. 2018. “Egypt: Overview.” 35. WHO. 2015. “Climate and Health Country Profile: Egypt.” 36. WWF. 2018. “Threat of Climate Change to the Nile-Lake Victoria.” 37. Map resource. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). 2015. GPCC Normal Version 2015 0.25 degrees. https://kunden.dwd.de/GPCC/Visualizer

2This “Key Resources” section lists works cited in preparing the Climate Risk Profile.

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SELECTED ONGOING EXPERIENCES3

Selected Program Amount Donor Year Implementer Green Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation $105.2 Egypt Ministry of Water Climate Fund, 2017-2024 in the North Coast of Egypt million Resources and Irrigation UNDP Global Sustainable Agriculture Investments $86.9 Ministry of Agriculture and Environment 2014-2023 and Livelihoods Project million Land Reclamation Facility Building Resilient Food Security Ministry of Agriculture and World Food Systems to Benefit the $6.9 million 2013-2018 Land Reclamation and Programme Southern Egypt Region Ministry of Environment Global Adaptation to Climate Change in the $16.9 Environment Ministry of Water Resources Nile Delta through Integrated Coastal 2009-2017 million Facility, and Irrigation Zone Management UNDP Ministry of Agriculture and 1.5 Million Feddan Project $2.3 billion N/A 2014-2030 Land Reclamation

Third Fiscal Consolidation, Sustainable $1.15 Ministry of International World Bank 2017-2019 Energy & Competitiveness DPF billion Cooperation EG-Enhanced Water Resources $8.4 million World Bank 2012-2016 Ministry of Water Resources Management Feed the Future Egypt Food Security Culturing New Frontiers in $23 million USAID 2015-2020 and Agribusiness Support Agriculture GoE Holding Company for Egypt Utilities Management $30 million USAID 2014-2019 Water and Wastewater American Research Center in Egypt, Camp Dresser & $14.8 McKee/Smith, Government of Groundwater Lowering Projects USAID 2011-2018 million Egypt: National Organization for Potable Water and Sanitary Drainage Egyptian-German Joint Committee for Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency GIZ 2015-2019 Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection Water Management Reform Ministry of Agriculture and GIZ 2015-2018 Programme Land Reclamation

3 This “Selected Ongoing Projects” section lists a selection of ongoing development projects and interventions directly or indirectly relevant to climate risk management and adaptation in Egypt. Projects were identified primarily via desk review of USAID, multi-lateral development bank, and other international donor programming. Projects listed are not meant to be comprehensive.

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