Seismometric Estimates of Underground Nuclear Explosion Yields

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Seismometric Estimates of Underground Nuclear Explosion Yields FOA 4 Happort C 4464-26 Juni 1971 SEISMOMETRIC ESTIMATES OF UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR EXPLOSION YIELDS U Ezdcsson FÖRSVARETS FORSKNINGSANSTALT AVDELNING k. Stockholo FOA RAPPORTK' /EGORIER Kapporter avsedda för spridning uta; ' r FOA utges i följande katego- rier: FOA A-rapport. Innehåller huvudsak-' •en för totalförsvaret avsedd och tillrättalagd redovisning av ett, som .:• gel avslutat, arbete. Förekom- mer som öppen (A-) och hemlig (AI ) rapport. FOA B-rapport. Innehåller för vida/ * spridning avsedd redovisning av öppet vetenskapligt eller tekniskt-v* v.enskapligt originalarbete av all- mänt intresse. Utges i FOA skriftserie "FOA Reports" eller publice- ras i FOA utomstående tidskrift, i ' Jket senare fall särtryck distri- bueras av FOA under beteckningen ' FOA Reprints't! FOA C -rapport. Innehåller för spridning inom och utom FOA (i vissa fall enbart inom FOA) avsedd redovisning av arbete, t ex i form av del- rapport, preliminärrapport eller metodikrapport. Förekommer som öppen (C-) och hemlig (CH-) rapport. FOA-RAPPORTS STATUS FOA-rapports status är att författaren (författarna) sva.var för rappor- tens innehåll, t ex för att angivna resultat är riktiga, för gjorda slut- satser och rekommendationer etc. FOA svarar - genom att rapporten godkänts för utgivning som FOA- rapport - för att det redovisade arbetet utförts i överensstämmelse med "vetenskap och praxis" på ifrågavarande område. I förekommande fall tar FOA ställning till i rapporten gjorda bedöm- ningar etc - detta anges i så fall i särskild ordning, t ex i missiv. FOA-RAPPORTS REGISTRERING From den 1. 7. 1966 registreras FOA-rapport enligt följande exempel: FOA 1 rapport A 1678-32(37) rapportkategori forskningsområde till vilket rappor- kod för utgivande avd (motsv) ten i för sta (andra) (FOA A, Moch Index - 0 hand är hänförlig 1 1 löpnummer (inom grup - 2 2 pen A-rapporter utgivna 3 3 av FOA 1) 4 4 P 8) FOA Repro Stockholm 1970 Försvarets forskningsanstalt FOA 4 rapport Avdelning 4 C 4464-26 Stockholm 80 Juni 1971 SEISMOMETRIC ESTIMATES OF UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR EXPLOSION YIELDS by Ulf Ericsson Antal blad 84 FOA kostnadsnr: 473 A1 61 Nyckelordt Kärnladdningsexplosioner, seisroologi, detektering Nuclear explosions, seismology, detection Rapporten utsänd till: UD/Pol IV (3 ex), Fst, FortF, FHS (2 ex), MHS, SkyddS, Fysiska inst Sthlm univ, Seism inst Uppsala (2 ex), Inst f geodesi KTH (2 ex), Inst f geofysik Uppsala (2 ex), FOA 3 (2 ex), FOA P FOA 4: 420, 470 (100 ex), 471 (3 ex), 472 (2 ex), 473 (3 ex), 478 (3 ex), 48 J_ Page la Summary A linear and stochastic model of the connection between seismic surface and body wave magnitudes ana the energy yield of under- ground nuclear explosions is adapted to the maximum likelihood estimation of yields from magnitudes measured in seismograph station networks. Standard deviations and confidence ranges are also obtained. Application to the calibratea situation of explosions in the yield range from 70 to 1200 kilotons in the Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site and magnitudes from Canadian stations shows that the precision of such estimates, as measured by the standard devia- tion of the logarithm of the yield, ranges from 0,3 with one average body wave statior to 0.03 when 19 body vave stations and 19 surface wave stations are used, the latter precision being well comparable with radiochemical yield determinations. The yield estimate from one average surface wave station is as precise as the joint estimate from four average body wave stations. Applications to a few explosions with known yields outside the Pahut-t. Mesa but at the Nevada Test Site and also in New Mexico and Colorado had an average logyield accuracy of very roughly * 0.2. For explosion? under Amchitka Island the model was numerically unsuitable. The ratio of yields estimated from surface and body vaves is employed as a yield independent indicator of departure from the conditions at the reference sources in Pahute Mesa. The surface wave yields from ex- plosions under Yucca Flat at Nevada Test Site are systematically only half of the body wave yields. The possibility of such source area biases reduces the yields seismometrically estimated for other source areas than Pahute Mesa, to equivalent yields. Such yields are affected by the ex- plosion depth and by the explosions medium. Several formulae of secondary or tertiary reliability are obtained for the seismometric estimation of the yields of US and USSR explosions when only some of the current single station or average network magnitudes are available, including provisional formulae for tha Hagfors Observatory. Accuracy and precision are estimated. Applications are made to some of the US and USSR explosions, for which the official yields have not been published. l.b Sammanfattning En linear och stokastisk modell för sambandet mellan seismiska magnituder från djup- och ytvågor och explosionsstyrkan hos underjordiska kärnladdnings- explosioner tillämpas på att enligt maximimetoden uppskatta explosionsstyrkor ur i stationsnät mätta magnituder. Standardavvikelser och konfidens- intervall beräknas. Tillämpning på den kalibrerade situationen med explosioner mellan 70 och 1200 kiloton i Fahute Mesa på Nevada-provplatsen och magnituder från stationer i Kanada visar att precisionen, mätt i enheter för logaritmen av explosions- styrkan, varierar från 0.3 för en genomsnittlig mätstation för djupvågor till 0.03 för 19 djupvågsstationer och 19 ytvågsstationer tillsammans. Denna precision är väl jämförbar med den hos radiokemiska styrkebestämningar. Uppskattningar med hjälp av en genomsnittlig ytvågs-station är lika precisa som med fyra genom- snittliga djupvågsstationer tillsammans. Vid tillämpning på några explosioner i USA men utanför Pahute Mesa och med kända styrkor, erhölls e;i noggrannhet av ungefär * 0.2 i logstyrkan. Modellen passar dock inte för explosioner under Amchitka-ön i Aleuterna. Kvoten mellan de ur yt- och djupvågor uppskattade styrkorna användes som ett av styrkan oberoende mått på avvikelser från referens-förhållandena i Pahute Mesa. De ur ytvågorna uppskattade styrkorna hos explosioner under Yucca Flat på Nevada-provplatsen är i genomsnitt endast hälften av de ur djupvågorna upp- skattade styrkorna. Möjligheten av sådana snedställningar reducerar de för andra kallområden än Pahute Mesa uppskattade styrkorna till relativa eller ekvivalenta styrkor. Sådana ekvivalenta styrkor påverkas av mediet för och djupet hos explosionen. Flera formler med sekundär eller tertiär pålitlighet härleds för seismometrisk uppskattning av den ekvivalenta styrkan hos explosioner i USA och Sovietunionen för de iall där endast någon eller några av de vanligare magnituderna från nät- verk eller enskilda stationer är tillgängliga. Däribland anges provisoriska formler för Hagfors-observatoriet. Uppskattningar av formlernas precision och noggrannhet anges. Formlerna tillämpas på ett antal av de explosioner i USA och Sovietunionen, för vilka officiella styrkor inte har publicerats. Page 2 Page 0. Summary 1 1. Introduction 4 1.01 The basic model 4 1.02 The, present applications 4 1.G3 Remarks on surface wave magnitudes 6 1.04 Notations 6 2. Primary seismometric estimates of the yields of some U S under- ground nuclear explosions with published official yields 8 2.01 The tables 8 2.02 The predicted standard deviation due to coupling variability and channel noise 9 2. "*3 Confidence ranges ior K and C 10 2.04 The calibration explosions Chartreuse, HaIfbeak, Greely, Scotch, Knickerbocker and Boxcar in the Pahute Mesa 12 2.05 The explosion Benham in the Pahute Mesa 13 2.06 The explosions Rex and Dureya in the Pahute Mesa 13 2.07 The extension of the model to include source area bias 14 2.08 The explosions Discus Thrower and Pile Driver 15 2.09 The explosion Gasbuggy in New Mexico 16 2.10 The explosion Rulison in Colorado 16 2.11 The explosions Long Shot and Milrow under Amchitka Island in Alaska 17 2.12 Precision and accuracy of the model 19 3. Primary seismometric estimates of the yields of some U S under- ground nuclear explosions with unpublished official yields 20 3.01 The tables 20 3.02 Nuclear explosions under the Yucca Flat in the Nevada Test Site 20 3.03 The explosions Pin Stripe and Diluted Waters near French- man Flat in the Nevada Test Site 21 3.04 The explosion Faultless in central Nevada 21 3.05 Remarks on the bias C 22 3.06 Station corrections 23 Page 3 4. Secondary seismometric estimates of the yields of underground nuclear explosions in the U S 29 4.01 Estimates by mean Canadian magnitudes 29 4.02 Estimates by LRSM and CGS body wave magnitudes 31 4.03 Estimates by n^,FS body wave magnitudes 33 4.04 Estimates by HL, and n*™, 34 4.05 Estimates by mCT1T 34 4.06 Estimates by m, «. 35 5. Tertiary seismometric estimates of the yields of underground nuclear explosions in the USSR 37 5.01 Use of the experience with explosions in the Pahute Mesa 37 5.02 The data and their reduction 37 5.03 Accuracy and precision 38 5.04 The estimated yields 39 6. Discussion and conclusions 40 6.01 The material 40 6.02 The maximum likelihood seismometric estimates of the yields of explosions in the Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site 40 6.03 The maximum likelihood seismometric estimates of the seismometric yields for U S explosions outside the Pahute Mesa 42 6.04 Secondary seismometric estimates of the yields of ex-* plosions in the U S 45 6.05 Tertiary seismometric estimates of the yields of ex- plosions in the USSR 46 6.06 Conclusions about event identification by the internal bias between equivalent logyields. 47 7. Acknowledgements 47 8. References 48 Tables 1-15 50-79 Figures 1-5 80-84 Page 4 1) Introduction 1.01 The Basic model In an earlier paper (Ericsson 1971), here referred to as paper II, the author applied a simple linear and stochastic model to the connection between seismometric surface and body wave magnitudes M.
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