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Petroleum import infrastructure in Australia Main report Prepared for the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism August 2009 Reliance and Disclaimer The professional analysis and advice in this report has been prepared by ACIL Tasman for the exclusive use of the party or parties to whom it is addressed (the addressee) and for the purposes specified in it. This report is supplied in good faith and reflects the knowledge, expertise and experience of the consultants involved. The report must not be published, quoted or disseminated to any other party without ACIL Tasman‘s prior written consent. ACIL Tasman accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any loss occasioned by any person acting or refraining from action as a result of reliance on the report, other than the addressee. In conducting the analysis in this report ACIL Tasman has endeavoured to use what it considers is the best information available at the date of publication, including information supplied by the addressee. Unless stated otherwise, ACIL Tasman does not warrant the accuracy of any forecast or prediction in the report. Although ACIL Tasman exercises reasonable care when making forecasts or predictions, factors in the process, such as future market behaviour, are inherently uncertain and cannot be forecast or predicted reliably. ACIL Tasman shall not be liable in respect of any claim arising out of the failure of a client investment to perform to the advantage of the client or to the advantage of the client to the degree suggested or assumed in any advice or forecast given by ACIL Tasman. © ACIL Tasman Pty Ltd This work is copyright. The Copyright Act 1968 permits fair dealing for study, research, news reporting, criticism or review. Selected passages, tables or diagrams may be reproduced for such purposes provided acknowledgment of the source is included. Permission for any more extensive reproduction must be obtained from ACIL Tasman on (03) 9600 3144. ACIL Tasman Pty Ltd ABN 68 102 652 148 Internet www.aciltasman.com.au Melbourne (Head Office) Brisbane Canberra Level 6, 224-236 Queen Street Level 15, 127 Creek Street Level 1, 33 Ainslie Place Melbourne VIC 3000 Brisbane QLD 4000 Canberra City ACT 2600 Telephone (+61 3) 9604 4400 GPO Box 32 GPO Box 1322 Facsimile (+61 3) 9600 3155 Brisbane QLD 4001 Canberra ACT 2601 Email [email protected] Telephone (+61 7) 3009 8700 Telephone (+61 2) 6103 8200 Facsimile (+61 7) 3009 8799 Facsimile (+61 2) 6103 8233 Email [email protected] Email [email protected] Darwin Suite G1, Paspalis Centrepoint 48-50 Smith Street Darwin NT 0800 Perth Sydney GPO Box 908 Centa Building C2, 118 Railway Street PO Box 1554 Darwin NT 0801 West Perth WA 6005 Double Bay NSW 1360 Telephone (+61 8) 8943 0643 Telephone (+61 8) 9449 9600 Telephone (+61 2) 9389 7842 Facsimile (+61 8) 8941 0848 Facsimile (+61 8) 9322 3955 Facsimile (+61 2) 8080 8142 Email [email protected] Email [email protected] Email [email protected] For information on this report Please contact: Contributing team members: Alan Smart Yuan Chou Telephone (02) 6103 8201 Ken Willett Mobile 0404 822 312 Antonia Hodby Email [email protected] Petroleum import infrastructure in Australia Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Terms of reference 1 1.2 Methodology and approach 1 2 Background and context 3 2.1 Past trends in imports of liquid fuels 3 2.2 Crude oil and other refinery feedstocks 4 2.3 Refinery products 5 2.4 LPG 6 2.5 Policy issues 7 3 Characteristics of import infrastructure 9 3.1 Import terminals for refined petroleum products 9 3.2 Terminals supplied from refineries 11 3.3 Determinants of import capacity 12 3.3.1 Demand fluctuations 13 3.3.2 Mode of supply 13 3.3.3 Shipping 13 3.3.4 Berths 13 3.3.5 Usable storage tankage by grade 14 3.3.6 Gantries 14 3.3.7 Case study 14 3.4 Ownership and access arrangements 16 3.4.1 Ownership arrangements 16 3.4.2 Access arrangements 17 3.5 Sales into and out of terminals 18 3.6 Shipping terms and issues 18 3.7 Assessing import capacity 19 4 Import Infrastructure in Australia 20 4.1 Overview 20 4.1.1 Location of petroleum import facilities 20 4.1.2 Petroleum refineries in Australia 20 4.1.3 Petroleum import terminals 22 4.1.4 Annual throughput of terminals 26 4.2 New South Wales 28 4.2.1 Location and Infrastructure 28 4.2.2 Ownership and usage arrangements 29 4.2.3 Capacity utilisation 35 iii Petroleum import infrastructure in Australia 4.2.4 Committed and planned developments 36 4.3 Victoria 37 4.3.1 Location and infrastructure 37 4.3.2 Ownership and usage arrangements 38 4.3.3 Commercial arrangements 41 4.3.4 Capacity utilisation 41 4.3.5 Committed and planned developments 43 4.4 Queensland 43 4.4.1 Location, infrastructure and capacity 43 4.4.2 Brisbane 44 4.4.3 Gladstone 51 4.4.4 Mackay 52 4.4.5 Townsville 54 4.4.6 Cairns 57 4.4.7 Cape Flattery 58 4.4.8 Torres Strait 58 4.4.9 Weipa 59 4.4.10 Karumba 59 4.4.11 Commercial arrangements 59 4.4.12 Capacity utilisation 60 4.4.13 Committed and planned developments 63 4.5 Western Australia 69 4.5.1 Location and supply arrangements 69 4.5.2 Ownership and commercial arrangements 75 4.5.3 Capacity utilisation 78 4.5.4 Committed and planned developments 81 4.6 South Australia 83 4.6.1 Overview 83 4.6.2 Adelaide 84 4.6.3 Port Lincoln 85 4.6.4 Commercial arrangements 85 4.6.5 Capacity utilisation 86 4.6.6 Committed and planned developments 87 4.7 Tasmania 88 4.7.1 Terminal location 88 4.7.2 Commercial arrangements 89 4.7.3 Capacity utilisation 89 4.7.4 Capacity Expansions 90 4.8 Northern Territory 90 4.8.1 Terminal location and ownership 90 iv Petroleum import infrastructure in Australia 4.8.2 Capacity utilisation 91 4.8.3 Commercial arrangements 92 4.8.4 Committed and planned developments 92 4.9 Summary of capacity utilisation and planned investments 92 5 LPG 94 6 Projections of supply and demand 96 6.1 Recent trends in consumption of petroleum products 96 6.1.1 Australia 96 6.1.2 New South Wales 97 6.1.3 Victoria 98 6.1.4 Queensland 99 6.1.5 Western Australia 99 6.1.6 South Australia 100 6.1.7 Tasmania 101 6.1.8 Northern Territory 102 6.1.9 Demand trends in mining and transport sectors 102 6.2 Recent projections of petroleum supply and demand 104 6.2.1 ABARE projections 105 6.2.2 Demand projections by State and Territory 107 6.2.3 Revised projections 108 6.2.4 Key uncertainties 109 6.3 Projections of imports of crude oil 114 6.4 Outlook for consumption of refined petroleum product and imports 114 6.4.1 Econometric approach 115 6.4.2 Results and discussion 119 6.4.3 Petrol 119 6.4.4 Diesel 121 6.4.5 LPG 121 6.4.6 Jet fuel 123 7 Adequacy to meet future demand 125 7.1 Australia 125 7.2 New South Wales 127 7.2.1 Current throughput and projected future demand 127 7.2.2 Adequacy to meet future demand 127 7.3 Victoria 129 7.3.1 Current throughput and projected future demand 129 7.3.2 Adequacy to meet future demand 129 7.4 Queensland 131 7.4.1 Current throughput and projected future demand 131 v Petroleum import infrastructure in Australia 7.4.2 Adequacy to meet future demand 131 7.5 Western Australia 133 7.5.1 Current throughput and projected future demand 133 7.5.2 Adequacy to meet future demand 135 7.6 South Australia 136 7.6.1 Current throughput and projected future demand 136 7.6.2 Adequacy to meet future demand 137 7.7 Tasmania 138 7.7.1 Current throughput and projected future demand 138 7.7.2 Adequacy to meet future demand 139 7.8 Northern Territory 139 7.8.1 Current throughput and projected future demand 139 7.8.2 Adequacy to meet future demand 140 7.9 Consequences if a refinery closes 141 8 Competition and efficient investment 143 8.1 Issues 143 8.2 Availability of imported petroleum products 143 8.3 Access to terminal capacity 144 8.4 Pricing policies 144 8.4.1 Economic structure of the fuel import supply chain 145 8.4.2 Cost structures in the supply chain 145 8.4.3 Charging strategies 147 8.5 Conclusion on level of competition in the fuel import supply chain 147 8.6 Impact of demand 149 8.7 Import competition by State 149 8.7.1 New South Wales 149 8.7.2 Victoria 150 8.7.3 Queensland 150 8.7.4 Western Australia 151 8.7.5 South Australia 152 8.7.6 Tasmania 152 8.7.7 Northern Territory 153 8.8 Planning and development processes 153 8.8.1 BP case studies 154 8.9 Access to land 156 9 Key findings 157 9.1 Adequacy to meet current and forecast demand 157 9.2 Fuel standards 157 9.3 Barriers to competition 158 9.4 Petroleum statistics 158 vi Petroleum import infrastructure in Australia 9.5 Planning 159 9.6 Recommendations 159 References 160 A Terms of reference A-1 B Glossary of terms B-1 C Organisations consulted C-1 D Petroleum import terminals D-1 E LPG Storages E-1 F Reference scenario assumptions F-1 G Econometric estimation G-1 List of figures Figure 1 Australian liquid fuels exports and imports, 2006-07 4 Figure 2 Imports and domestic consumption of crude oil and other refinery feedstock 4 Figure 3 Sources of crude oil imports to Australia, 2002-03 to 2007-08 (ML per annum) 5 Figure 4 Imports and total consumption of petroleum products 6 Figure 5 Sources of petroleum product imports to Australia, 2002-03 to 2006- 07 (ML per annum) 7 Figure 6 Example of an import terminal – Caltex Mackay 10 Figure 7 Schematic of dual supplied terminal – BP Newcastle NSW 10 Figure 8 Schematic of Altona refinery arrangements and Yarraville terminal 12 Figure 9 Principal petroleum import facilities around Australia 21 Figure 10 Storage capacity in each State/Territory by fuel type, 2008 (ML) 25 Figure 11 Storage capacity in major metropolitan areas by fuel
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