The Fund for Peace Niger Delta Election Violence Update January - March 2015 ollowing the party primaries in late Cards (PVCs) have further complicated 2014, political jockeying has matters. Unlike previous cycles, this election continued between and among looks to be a real contest between the parties. The postponement of the ruling party and the opposition, which has elections originally slated for raised the stakes considerably, particularly February 14, due to insecurity in the in states like Rivers and Edo. Northeast, appears to have raised the level of uncertainty. In some states, gangs and At the presidential level, the contest is cult groups have taken sides. In others, between a candidate from the Niger Delta political rallies have escalated to violence. and one from the North. However it would Even issues not directly election-related be a mistake to assume that the Niger Delta such as communal tensions and criminality region is monolithic in its support of the have been affected. Logistical challenges Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), particularly around the distribution of Permanent Voter at the state level. While the severity of The graphic above is a P4P Heat Map displaying incidents in Niger Delta States, Jan to Mar 2015. Sources: P4P, NEEWS2015/TMG, NSRP Sources, Council on Foreign Relations, FFP’s UNLocK, Nigeria Watch, ACLED. www.p4p-nigerdelta.org Niger Delta Fatalities by Month Types of Conflict by State (January - March 2015) The Line graph shows trends in monthly violent fatalities in the Niger Delta, comparing the 2011 Bar graph shows conflict incidents reported from Jan-Mar 2015. Rivers state had the most inci- election year with 2015. Overall, the 12 months prior to the 2015 election has been more lethal dents of general insecurity and political tension, while Delta had the most communal/ethnic than in 2010-2011, even with the spike in deaths in Nov/Dec 2010 associated with insurgency/ tensions reported. Delta has also been the most lethal state during this period. counter-insurgency. Niger Delta Election Violence Update: January - March 2015 election violence may ultimately vary conflict mitigation efforts around the state This memo captures the latest trends in the depending on who wins the federal election, and local elections. These will occur two nine states, including the dynamics in the Niger Delta it is perhaps more weeks later, with their results in many ways particular to each. important for stakeholders to focus their more directly salient for local constituents. Peacebuilding in the Niger Delta A number of initiatives are under way to Stakeholder Democracy Network, Nigeria support platforms that respond to conflict reduce the negative effects of conflict Watch, Council on Foreign Relations, ACLED, risk in several Niger Delta states. Initiatives before and after the election through early Partners for Peace, AA PeaceWorks, the such as Dawn in the Creeks and Shun warning and conflict assessment linked to Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room, and Wahala seek to promote peace through practical interventions on the ground. The Fund for Peace (FFP) have been media outreach on television and radio. When data on patterns and trends of collecting data for early warning and conflict conflict risk factors is connected with assessment and advocacy. PIND actively seeks to leverage and amplify training and capacity building for response, all of these initiatives, so as to multiply their and amplified by the use of peace The Foundation for Partnership Initiatives in overall effectiveness region-wide. In journalism in the media, a real difference the Niger Delta (PIND) has facilitated a local addition to joint projects and partnerships can be made for peace and security at the network of over 2,700 traditional rulers, with many of the above initiatives, one tool local, state, and national levels. government officials, civil society, women’s supported by PIND is a public, online leaders, and youth, who are collaborating platform to enable information sharing and Local and international organizations and on peace and conflict mitigation activities outreach. Data from this tool was used in coalitions such as WANEP Nigeria, CLEEN every week, including sensitization and the briefing below. To access the interactive Foundation, Search for Common Ground, direct mediation efforts. Other platform, visit www.p4p-nigerdelta.org. the Transitional Monitoring Group, organizations, like NSRP are also working to www.fundforpeace.org 2 The Fund for Peace Niger Delta Election Violence Update: January - March 2015 Abia State There were two peaceful protests held in Abia has an estimated population of 2.4 Umuahia North LGA, one by pensioners million (2006 census), predominantly of complaining of not have received their Igbo origin. Comparatively, it has not experi- payments over four months, and one by the enced the levels of violence and insecurity local chapter of the Nigeria Labor Congress that other states in the Niger Delta have protesting alleged marginalization of certain between 2012 and the end of 2014. Abia delegates at the recent NLC national produces about 27% of Nigeria’s crude oil congress in Abuja. and a significant amount of its natural gas. It is also rich in yam, maize, rice, potatoes, Other incidents included the reported and cashews. Theodore Orji (PDP) was re- beheading of a local chief in Bende LGA that elected as governor of Abia state in 2011. caused tensions in a small rural community. Since the dissolution of the local govern- ment administrations in January 2010, there There were no reported incidents of have been no Local Government Area (LGA) At least 5 people were reportedly killed violence directly related to the election level elections although they are scheduled between January 1 and March 7 in criminal during this period aside from a minor for April 2015. violence as well as in one incident with ethno- incident in Isiala-Ngwa North LGA, in which national coloration in an alleged killing of a man was allegedly beaten after being several members of the Movement for the caught tearing down PDP election posters. Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB) by “sponsored thugs.” Akwa Ibom State primarily relating to pre-election tensions, Akwa Ibom has an estimated population of including clashes between supporters of the about 3.9 million (2006 census). It is one of APC and the PDP. the largest petroleum producers in Nigeria. Agricultural products include palm, rubber, In Uyo LGA, reports suggested PDP cocoa, rice, cassava, yam, plantain, and ba- supporters beat an APC supporter to death nana. The state has generally been peace- after the victim was caught tearing down ful, although some incidents of political their political posters. This was then met by violence have been reported over the last a reprisal attack from APC supporters, two election cycles. which left five people injured. Other pre- In 2011, Godswill Akpabio (PDP) won the election incidents included thugs thought to gubernatorial election with 83.4% of the be affiliated with PDP setting two APC cars on fire in Oron LGA, and at least three vote. In late 2014, Udom Emmanuel won deaths at a PDP political rally in Etinan LGA. the PDP primaries and will run against APC, At least 5 people were reportedly killed AP, JP, and APGA candidates in the 2015 between January 1 and March 7 in communal The only non-election incident for the elections. and political violence. period related to an intercommunal clash sparked by a domestic dispute, resulting in Levels of violence in the relatively peaceful one reported fatality. state of Akawa Ibom have risen in 2015, www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Fund for Peace Niger Delta Election Violence Update: January - March 2015 Bayelsa State confusion over the process of PVC Bayelsa is one of the smallest states in the distribution. There were also several country, with an estimated population of 1.7 reports of destruction of campaign million (2006 census), mostly of Ijaw de- materials by youths and thugs in Brass, scent. It produces between 30 and 40% of Kolokuma/Opokuma, and Nembe Local Nigeria’s oil and gas. Commercial fishing Government Areas (LGAs), exacerbating and agriculture, including oil palm, raffia tensions. Tensions between parties and palm, rubber, and coconut also make up a candidates escalated to violence on several significant portion of the state’s economy. occasions, particularly in Sagbama, Nembe, Ekeremor, and Southern Ijaw LGAs, often Violence in Bayelsa, as measured by the raw number of incidents is in the mid-range involving suspected paid thugs. when compared to the other Niger Delta Other incidents that took place during this states. But when calculated on a per capita period included attacks by sea pirates, basis, that ranking increases significantly. At least 7 people were reported killed between clashes between cult groups, and land Governor Henry Dickson (PDP) won the January 1 and March 7 in incidents that were conflict. There were several reports of election in 2012 after a period of uncer- not directly election-related (cult clashes and tensions in Kolokuma/Opokuma and tainty in the wake of Governor Sylva’s termi- sea pirate attacks). Ekeremor over pipeline surveillance jobs. nation. The next gubernatorial elections are Property was also reportedly destroyed in slated for 2016. Conflict risk factors related to the election an intra-communal clash over the included multiple reports of frustration and traditional stool. Cross River State Cross River has an estimated population of Governor Liyel Imoke (PDP) was elected in 2.9 million (2006 census). It is one of the 2007. After an annulment, he won a re-run fastest growing states in Nigeria. A long- in 2008, and was elected again in 2012. standing border dispute with neighboring Benedict Ayade won the PDP primaries in Cameroon ended with the transfer of most late 2014 to run in the 2015 general elec- of the Bakassi peninsula to Yaoundé in tions, although since then there has been 2013.