Suncor investment thesis
Growth from inflight projects Cash generation vs 23 global peers3 Production1 increasembpd
850 $130 ■ Cash flow from operations• (US$/boe) $110 • Free cash flow' (US$/boe) 6% - Brent US$ 750 planned $90 CAGR2/share
650 $70 8% CAGR2/share $50 550 $30
450 $10
2011 2015 2019 -$10 ■ Planned 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Shareholder Return Balance Sheet ::.trength 190% Fiveyeardividend growth (Q1 2011 - Q1 2016) • Dividend per share5
• Buyback per share5,6 Liquidity $9.9 B $3.1 B cash and $6.8 B in available lines ofcredit
Investment grade credit rating A1ow/ Moody's Corp (Baa1} Stable DBRS Rating Limited (A Low} NegativeTrend Baal Standard and Poor's Rating Services (A-} NegativeOutlook
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SUNC~ 2 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Soe Slide Notes and Advisories. Suncor value proposition
Operational excellence • optimizing the base business • disciplined cost management • focus on safety, reliability and sustaina ility
3 SUNCOR) Strong production growth through the end of the decade
Suncor's production growth forecast1 (mbpd)
Hebron 800 E&P1 700 Syncrude 600
500 Fort Hills 400 Base Oil Sands 300 Firebag MacKay 200 Base Mine
100 Major Oil Sands Turnarounds3 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Guidance mid-point Planned Planned Planned SUNC~ 4 1, 2, 3 See SlideNotes and Advisories. Investing through the price cycle
$7 8 WTI @ 33.50 US$ Available $1.28 credit $6 8 $6.86 8
$1.08 Other growth3 $5 8 $245 M + Cas~1& Capitalized short- erm Cash (8/S) interest de~t Planned $4 8 $0.88 $141 M $1 .1 8 $221 M Divestment5 $1.0-1.5 8 Fort Hills $0.68 $3 8 & Hebron Cash $720M Remaining $3.1 8 Fort Hills & $2 8 $0.48 Dividend Hebron $453M planned Spend4 $1 8 $0.28 $3.1 8
$0.08 ---- $0 8
Cash flow and cash reserves Cash and short term dlebt sustain operations & finance in-flight organic Ample liquidity to fund growth dividend growth Q1 2016 as at March 31, 2016 SUNCOR) 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6 See Slide•Notes and Advisories. An industry leader in cash flow generation - Levered to oil price
Track record of top cash flow rankings Significant CFOPs upside potential Rankings based on 23 Global Peers2 Benchmarked off 01 2016 $682M CFOPs and 33.90 US$ realized Brent pricing, 0.73 CS/US$, $11 .75 NYH crack spread3 $120 - Cash flow from operations1 300% (US$/boe) $100 - Free cash flow1 (US$/boe) Incremental CFOPs sensitivity - Brent to Brent pricing (%)
$80 200%
$60 2
$40 100%
$20
$0 0% $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 2014 2015 -$20 Brent price sensitivities Q2 Q3 a4 \ I 01 Q2 Q3 Q4* \ 01 2016*
,,_ Reflects continuous investment in strategic capital projects such as Fort Hills and Hebron
6 1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNC~ Focused on sustainable cost reductions
Operating, selling and general expenses Oil Sands cash operating costs2 C$ billions C$/bbl
$~18 ~34% ,-----...... ~60% Reduction --. Controllable!
$~500M l
2014 2015 Target 20161 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Base (Ex of cos) Driving down costs
Productivity: Workforce reduction, technology application :Supply chain: Sole sourcing, contract concessions
Business processes: Elimination of non-value added tQperational: Improved reliability, increased scale, work, streamlined reporting, reduced fly in fly out maintenance planning, energy inputs (non-controllable)
7 1, 2 See Slide No,tes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Financial strength in a challenging1 economic environment
Conservative debt metrics Manageable debt profile net debt to CFOPS1 targetbelow 3x until Suncor has to refinance LT debt 2.Sx 2 years first significant maturity in 2018 March 31, 2016
total debt to capitalization2 of total LT debt due over coming decade 29 • 6%0 targetbetween 20%-30% < 50% $16.3 B total long-term debt3 March 31, 2016 as at March 31 , 2016
investment grade credit rating liquidity Moody's Corp (Baa1) Stable Alow/ $9.9B 4 OBRS Rating Limited(A Low) NegativeTrend cash & cash equivalents ($3.1B) plus available creditfacilities Baal Standard and Poor's Rating Services (A-) Negative Outlook as at March 31 , 2016
Strong credit rating relative to peers5,6
Suncor - S&P
- Moody's Canadian peers I 111 I n1I n I ~ - S&P I I )( [Q(IJ [<)' [Qx [<) [<)' '»'
8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 se,e Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNC~ Returning cash to shareholders
Historical dividend growth Top quartile in global peer group2 Annual dividendpershare Fiveyeardividend growth (Q1 2011 - Q1 2016)
200% 190%
100%
0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 20161 Expected -100%
quarterly dividend per share1 dividend yield1,4 29( "'3% as at March 31 , 2015
5-year dividend CAGR1, 3 5-year total shareholder return >20% 2011-2016 +15% including reinvested dividends 2011 -2015
consecutive dividend increases1 years shares outstanding repurchased 14 10% 2011 -2015
9 1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide•Notes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Market access strategy for inland ioil production
Suncor has approximately 700 mbpd of near-term access to globally priced markets1
Suncor refinery capacity
I.... m: pd ) Suncor rail loading capacity
Pipeline Current total pipeline capacity2 - Gathering lines TMX \ - 300 mbpd capacity2 Express/Rocky Mountain Sa,tF,i:ancisco , ., 280 mbpd capacity2 0 TransCanada Keystone 590 mbpd capacity2
0 Los Angel es Enbridge Mainline 2.6 mbpd capacity2
Enbridge Line 9 300 mbpd capacity2,3
Flanagan South Pipeline System 2 0 St James 585 mbpd capacity Houston/Texas City Marine opportunities
SUNCOR) 10 1, 2, 3 See Slide•N otes and Advisories. Refining & Marketing - the value 01f integration
R&M net earnings1 Suncor Peers1 2016 Q1 prices and crude costs2 US$/bbl ofcapacity High C$/bbl Average • Low 15 • 10 • Brent
5
0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oil Sands realization Feedstock cost R&M realization3 Refinery feedstock Realized GM4/bbl vs. NYH 3-2-1 benchmark Percent of refining capacity All Suncor refineries - 01 2016
■ %Inland % Offshore --.% Suncor Crude $16.08 - -
Benchmark Benchmark Crude Product mix Yield / Realized GM FIFO G/(L) Realized GM crack (US$) crack (C$) differential and local Feedstock/ (LIFO)' (FIFO) differential Other SUNCOR) 11 1, 2, 3, 4,5 See SlideNotes and Advisories. Oil Sands production exceeds 700 mbpd by 20191
Debottlenecks, expansions and growth projects expected to raise total Oil Sands production from 463 mbpd (2015) up to 700mbpd.
Firebag • 23 mbpd debottleneckcompleted in Q4 2015 • eapacity2: 203 mbpd bitumen Base Mine Extraction • Extraction debottleneckcomplete • Notiiona13 eapacity2: 325 to 350 mbpd bitumen
Syncrude -~ .,,. • 53.74% SU Wl4 2 f' 1/•eapacity : 188 mbpd (SU WI) sec MacKay River • 8 mbpd debottleneck completed inQ4 2015 • eapacity2: 38 mbpdbitumen
Base Upgrading Opera • Potential 10% future debottlenec • eapaclty2: 350 mbpd sec 0% upgrading y ield loss ,--~ Logistics Fort Hills Future growth projects will be • Increased SU WI to 50.8% integratedwith existing • Underconstruction logistics infrastructure • eapacity2: 91 mbpd(SU WI) PFT bitumen
SUNCOR) 12 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. Fort Hills progressing on plan
Suncor working interest 50.8% Bitumen
production capacity Diluent 9lmbpd netto Suncor SAGO bitumen blended barrel PFT bitumen blended barrel $6.5B capital cost estimate1 netto Suncor from project sanction to first oil Hydrouonspon Rowy fine \Wl ~ construction complete 55% as at March 31, 2016
work force on site 5000 as at March 31 , 2016
construction hours 21M+ withoutenvironmental, health and safety or regulatory enforcementaction
no upgrader needed PFT froth treatmentleaves heaviestofthe carbon molecules inthe ground, resulting in a higher Tallngs ScparatlOO Froth IHydlocarbon Bitumen quality, less CO2 intensive bitumen. PFTbitumen can poo 13 1 See Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Suncor's acquisition of additional Syncrude working interest - Syncrude properties Suncor_& other JV properties - COS transaction 1 21 2016 assumed Debt March closing date $2.6 B cos Murphy transaction 1 2016 shares issued for COS April anticipated effectivedate -136 M 2 3 total Suncor WI $/mbpd capital intensity 53.74% 41 .74% WI expected to be acquired in 2016 54k based on 350 mbpd capacity 2 2 value of transactions1 MMbbls expected 2P Reserves $7.8 8 2264 53.74%2 WI in Syncrude asset SUNCOR) 14 1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories Syncrude performance Syncrude utilization (%) 113 mbpd Q1 2016 production (SU WI) ""91 % 12% Suncor WI up to February 5 48.74% Suncor WI from February 6 _.., 91 Ofo Q1 2016 Syncrude utilization real1ization ofpeak production rates early stages of a multi year plan to achieve >90% continuous reliability planned outage impact2 on Q2 production volumes (SU WI) tumaround beginning April 1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 01 2016 Unlocking value & realizing benefits through 1: Synergies Reliability Technology SUNCOR) 15 1,2 See Slide Notes and Advisories 1 6 Technology development portfolio • Reduce GHG emissions Reduce costs & improve Reduce tailings/ water / intensity profitability land footprint Surface rocess (lean facility development) Enhanced SAG recovery processes (steam+ additives) In Situ Steam g neration technology (e.g. OCSG4) Non-steam re overy processes (e.g. EASE2 , NSolv3) Extra tion processes (non-aqueous) Froth treatment technologies (PFT) Mining and Extraction Tailings processes (closure & PASS5) Autonomous ha I system (AHS) Renewablie diluent Refiningand Upgrading De-salting 16 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 SeEi SlideNotes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Achieving operational excellence 1through continuous improvement Cutting inefficiencies, variation and complexity to sustainably improve performance Operational Example: lm1proved mining reliability into upgrader Excellence Actions: Tonnes lost per month due to Reliability unplanned downtime better collaboration Significantly improve the Updated operating screens so that reliability ofour business mine dispatchers and control room operators could monitor each others' actions 92% Environment & standardized practices Reduction Focused on stabilization offeed Sustainability rather than maximum tonnage Go beyond compliance in key areas strong accountability Created joint rather than independent performance goals Personal & Process Results: Safety Continue our journey to zero higher & steadier ore feed rates from the mine better ore feed management from People Avg Recruit and retain capable, 2012-13 01/14 02/114 03/14 04/14 01/15 extraction engaged people 17 SUNCOR) Track record of leadership on add1ressing climate change Published first GRl1 First response to CDP2 Introduction of seven- compliant Report investor report followed by Call for a CEO participation Call for an economy- point action plan On Sustainability water report carbon levy in EcoFiscal Commission wide price on carbon ~ 1997 ] [ 2003 } [ 2004-10 ~~ 2011 ) [ 2014 J [201s:+, 0.19 t/bbl > 550% increase in production > 55% reduction in Oil Sands GHG lntensity3 since 1990 I I 0.08 t/bbl "Climate change is happening. 1 1990 Carbon Process Steam Bitumen CoGen 2014 Carb1:m Doing nothing isn t an option" Intensity Water Yield lntensi~• Steve Williams, CEO Suncor 18 1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Appendix 19 SUNCOR) Canada's leading integrated energy company enterprise value1 2P reserve life index2 years OIi Sands 70 B March 31, ,!016 35+ as at Dec 31 , 2015 QFortHllls 691 mboepd ;~1 ~:~~ oil production 462 mbpd refining capacity OFlrebag MacKay Syncrude Rlver0 0 BasePlant O& MIiiennium Norway Fort Golden Eagle{;) • Beta Buzzard r~ • Stavanger Aberdeen Edmonton E; st Coast canada • Calgary Hibernia etondon United Klngdom Montreal Samia Oenver/0 Commerce City Mississauga Head office • Regional office • ~rated 0 1-b~pe,a~ • ~ osed O Refining capaoty Cirles aresc.led toll!litive 11er capaory SUNCOR) 20 1, 2 See S/ir e Notes and Advisories. 2016 Capital and production guida.nce1 2016 Capital2 Grow1th Capita13 Total Production4 $ millions Percent boepd 400,000 - 425,000 Oil Sands Operations Upstream5 5,250 - 5,600 165% 125,000 - 135,000 Syncrude6 Downstream 700- 800 5% 95,000 - 105,000 E&P Corporate 50- 100 501o 420,000 - 440,000 Refinery Thruput Total $6,000 - $6,500 55% 620,000 - 665,000 Upstream 2016 Planned maintenance for Suncor operated assets7 Upstream Timing Impact on Quarter R&M Timing Impact on Quarter U2 Q2 ~132 mbpd* Denver Q2 ~13 mbpd Terra Nova Q2 ~4 mbpd Montreal Q2 ~8 mbpd U1 Q3 ~23 mbpd* Sarnia Q2 ~26 mbpd MacKay River Q3 ~3 mbpd Sarnia Q3 ~2 mbpd U1 Q4 ~3 mbpd* ~ A portion ofthe SCO volume impact will be offset byincreasing bitumen sales 21 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 , 7 See SlideNotes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Acquisition (* ) and divestment ( $ ) history $100 ■ WTI US$/bbl $80 Fort Hills, $60 10% additional WI $40 Murphy Syncrude WI $20 $40 ■ NYH 3-2-1 US$/bbl $30 Pioneer retail network $20 Valero Commerce City $10 Conoco Commerce City refinery refinery $0 $8 Colorado and Trinidad ■ AECO US$/Gj & Tobago $6 gas assets $ Canadian gas assets $4 $ $2 $0 .______ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2016 E1 22 1 See Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Comparing typical attributes of North American oil plays1 Fort Hills Offshore 50 years Illustrative annual cash flow profile based off peak production at Fort Hills of 91 mbpd (Suncor Wl)2 Tight Oil SAGO Mining Offshore Initial Capital Low Medium High High Reinvestment Cycle Short Medium Ultra long Medium Operating Costs Low Medium High Medium Production Light oil Bitumen Bitumen Light oil Reservoir Risk Medium Medium Low High Recovery Factor Low High Very High Medium Decline Rate Very high Medium Low High Other Considerations Land acquisition Cyclical pad No longer need Exploration costs development on-site upgrading risk Suncor Exposure 0% ~30% ~55% ~15% 1, 2 See Slide Note Pilot I p rototyp&J Commercial technology5 Surfactant7 • NCG Co-lnjection6 ESEIEH6 PFT6 • • AHS6 ~ - In situ • Mining & Extraction • - Upgrading & Refining 24 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 See Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNC~ High quality mining, in situ and upgrading oil sands portfolio1 Base Plant Syncrude 350,000 bpd capacity Syncrude operated Suncor working interest 100% 188,000 bpd capacity (SU WI) 1,662 mmbbls 2P reserves Suncor working interest 53. 7 4% 2,264 mmbbls 2P reserves (SU Wl)2 Firebag Fort Hills 203,000 bpd capacity Suncor operated Suncor working interest 100% 91,000 bpd capacity (planned, SU WI) 2,661 mmbbls 2P reserves Suncor working interest 50.8% 1,593 mmbbls 2P reserves (SU Wl)3 MacKay River Future opportunities 38.000 bpd capacity Lewis (SU WI 100%) Suncor working interest 100% Meadow Creek (SU WI 75%) 535 mmbbls 2P reserves 1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 25 SUNC~ Offshore oil projects with -470 million barrels of 2P reserves1 Terra Nova Hibernia Suncor Energy operated ExxonMobil operated Suncor working interest 37.675% Suncor working interest 19.55%2 44.4 mmboe 2P reserves (SU WI) 92.0 mmboe 2P reserves (SU Wl)3 White Rose Buzzard Husky Energy operated Nexen Petroleum UK operated Suncor working interest 27.5% Suncor working interest 29.89% 28.1 mmboe 2P reserves (SU WI) 64.5 mboepd net capacity 63.3 mmboe 2P reserves (SU WI) Hebron Golden Eagle ExxonMobil operated Nexen Petroleum UK operated Suncor working interest 21 %4 Suncor working interest 26.69% First oil expected in late 2017 First oil achieved Q4 2014 31.6 mboepd planned net capacity4 18.5 mboepd net capacity 154 mmboe 2P reserves (SU Wl)3 31.2 mmboe 2P reserves (SU WI) Construction activities are continuing at Development drilling to be complete in deepwater site 2016 1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide Notes and Advisories. 26 SUNCOR) Canada's largest refining & marketing business1 Edmonton Refinery Sarnia Refinery 142,000 bpd capacity 85,000 bpd capacity 100% oil sands feedstock ~ 75% oil sands feedstock Commerce City Refinery Montreal Refinery 98,000 bpd capacity 137,000 bpd capacity ~20% oil sands feedstock Rail offloading capacity of 30-40 mbpd Receiving crude volume from Line 9 as ofDecember 2015 ~30% oil sands feedstock Marketing Other Over 500,000 bpd in product sales • 6 wind farms2 (287 MW) 1484 retail sites (55% owned) with • St. Clair Ethanol plant (400 MUyr) largest urban market share in Canada1 • Mississauga Lubricants plant 280 wholesale sites (870 MUyr, 350+ specialty products) • 51 % interest in Parachem Global sulphur and petroleum coke marketing 1, 2 See SlideNote•s and Advisories. 27 SUNCOR) Advisories Forward-LookingStatements - This presentation contains Although Suncor believes that the expectations represented are included because management uses the information to certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning ofthe by such forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can analyze business performance, leverage and liquidity and United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be therefore may be considered useful information by investors. and "forward-looking information" within the meaning of correct. Suncor's Manageiment's Discussion and Analysis for applicable Canadian securities legislation (collectively, the quarter ended March ,l1, 2016 and dated April 27, 2016 Annual cash flow from operations, free cash flow and Oil "forward-looking statements"), including statements about (the MD&A), Annual Report and its most recently filed Annual Sands cash operating costs per barrel for 2013, 2014 and Suncor's growth strategy, expected acquisitions and Information Form/Form 40-F and other documents it files from 2015 are defined and reconciled to GAAP measures in divestments, expected future production and operating and time to time with securities regulatory authorities describe the Suncor's management's discussion and analysis for the year financial results and expectations with respect to dividends risks, uncertainties, material assumptions and other factors ended December 31 , 2015; figures for 2011 are defined and and share re-purchases, that are based on Suncor's current that could influence actual results and such factors are reconciled in Suncor's management's discussion and analysis expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions that incorporated herein by ref,erence. Copies ofthese documents for the year ended December 31, 2013 (except in the case of were made by Suncor in light of its experience and its are available without char!~e from Suncor at 150 6th Avenue free cash flow, which equals cash flow from operations less perception of historical trends. Some ofthe forward-looking SW., Calgary, Alberta T2IP 3Y7, by calling 1-800-558-9071, capital and exploration expenditures for 2011 ); figures for statements may be identified by words such as "estimates", or by email request to [email protected] or by referring to the 2012 are defined and reconciled in Suncor's management's "planned", "goal", "strategy", "expects", "continue", "may", company's profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com or EDGAR at discussion and analysis for the year ended December 31 , "will", "outlook", "anticipated"and similar expressions. www.sec.gov. Except as required by applicable securities 2014; Non-GAAP measures for the first quarter of 2016 are Forward-looking statements are not guarantees offuture laws, Suncor disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly defined and reconciled in the MD&A; cash flow from performance and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as operations for the 12 months ended March 31 , 2016 is the some that are similar to other oil and gas companies and a result of new information, future events or otherwise. sum of cash flow from operations for the quarters ended June some that are unique to Suncor. Users ofthis information are Suncor's actual results may differ materially from those 30, September 30 and December 31 , 2015 and March 31, cautioned that actual results may differ materially as a result expressed or implied by itsforward looking statements, so 2016, all defined and reconciled in the applicable quarterly of, among other things, assumptions regarding expected readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on them. report. synergies and reduced operating expenditures; volatility of and assumptions regarding oil and gas prices; assumptions Suncor's corporate guidance includes a planned production regarding timing of commissioning and start-up of capital range, planned maintenanice, capital expenditures and other Reserves - Unless noted otherwise, reserves information projects; assumptions contained in or relevant to Suncor's information, based on our current expectations, estimates, presented herein for Suncor is presented as Suncor's working 2016 Corporate Guidance; fluctuations in currency and projections and assumptions (collectively, the "Factors"), interest (operating and non-operating) before deduction of interest rates; product supply and demand; market including those outlined in our 2016 Corporate Guidance royalties, and without including any royalty interests of competition; risks inherent in marketing operations (including available on www.suncor.,com/guidance, which Factors are Suncor, and is at December 31, 2015. For more information credit risks); imprecision of reserves estimates and estimates incorporated herein by ref,erence. Suncor includes forward on Suncor's reserves, including definitions of proved and of recoverable quantities of oil, natural gas and liquids from looking statements to assist readers in understanding the probable reserves, Suncor's interest, location ofthe reserves Suncor's properties; the ability to access external sources of company's future plans and expectations and the use of such and the product types reasonably expected please see debt and equity capital; the timing and the costs ofwell and information for other purposes may not be appropriate! Suncor's most recent Annual Information Form/Form 40-F pipeline construction; assumptions regarding the timely receipt Non-GAAPMeasures - Certain financial measures in this dated February 25, 2016 available at www.sedar.com and of regulatory and other approvals; the ability to secure presentation - namely cash flow from operations, free cash www.sec.gov. adequate product transportation; changes in royalty, tax, flow, Oil Sands operations; cash operating costs and last in environmental and other laws or regulations or the first out (LIFO) - are not prescribed by GAAP. All non-GAAP BOE- (Barrels of oil equivalent) Certain natural gas volumes interpretations of such laws or regulations; applicable political measures presented hereiin do not have any standardized have been converted to barrels of oil on the basis of six and economic conditions; the risk ofwar, hostilities, civil meaning and therefore am unlikely to be comparable to thousand cubic feet to one boe. This industry convention is insurrection, political instability and terrorist threats; similar measures presente,d by other companies. Therefore, not indicative of relative market values, and thus may be assumptions regarding OPEC production quotas; risks these non-GAAP measure•s should not be considered in misleading. associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance regulatory actions; and assumptions regarding the timing and prepared in accordance with GAAP. All non-GAAP measures completion of acquisitions and divestments. 28 SUNCOR) Slide Notes Slide 2------completion of the acquisition of a further 5% of Syncrude quarter. Data for peers sources from FACTSET. Data for (1) Production excludes North America onshore, Libya and from Murphy Oil Company Ltd. (Murphy) with an certain peers has not been based on information Syria for all years including 2019 planned. Production effective date of April 1, 2016. The Murphy transaction prepared in accordance with IFRS, and may not be estimate may vary materially from actual production in is subject to closing conditions, including regulatory comparable and should not be considered as a the future. See Forward-Looking Statements in the approval under the Competition Act. Production substitute for measures prepared in accordance with Advisories. estimates provided may vary materially from actual IFRS. (2) Compound annual growth rates (CAGR) are calculated production in the future. See Forward-Looking (2) Global peers in alphabetical order, not necessarily as using combined Offshore and Oil Sands 2011-2015 full Statements in the Advisories. they appear in the chart: Anadarko Petroleum year production and 2015 full year production and (2) Compound annual growth rates (CAGR) are calculated Corporation, Apache Corporation, British Petroleum Pie, planned volumes for 2019. See Forward-Looking using combined Offshore and Oil Sands 2015 full year Canadian Oil Sands Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Statements in the Advisories. production and planneid volumes for 2019. See Forward Chesapeake Energy Corporation, Chevron Corporation, (3) Global peers in alphabetical order, not necessarily as Looking Statements in the Advisories. Canadian Natural Resources Limited, ConocoPhillips they appear in the chart: Anadarko Petroleum (3) U1 (Upgrader 1) and U2 (Upgrader 2) and FB (Firebag). Co., Devon Energy Corporation, Encana Corporation, Corporation, Apache Corporation, British Petroleum Pie, See 2016 Planned Maintenance forSuncor Operated Enersis S.A., EOG Resources Inc., Exxon Mobil Canadian Oil Sands Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Assets on Slide 21. Subject to change. Estimated Corporation, Hess Corporation, Husky Energy Inc., Chesapeake Energy Corporation, Chevron Corporation, impacts of maintenance have been factored into annual Imperial Oil Limited, Hess Corporation, Marathon Oil Canadian Natural Resources Limited, ConocoPhillips guidance. Corporation, Murphy Oil Corporation, Occidental Co., Devon Energy Corporation, Encana Corporation, Slide 5------ Petroleum Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell P.L.C. and Enersis S.A., EOG Resources Inc., Exxon Mobil (1) Sustaining capital exclludes sustaining capital of $21 M Total SA Corporation, Hess Corporation, Husky Energy Inc., which is recognized under the Fort Hills and Hebron (3) Assumes no change to Q1 2016 production, costs, Imperial Oil Limited, Hess Corporation, Marathon Oil total. pricing, and exchange rate. Corporation, Murphy Oil Corporation, Occidental (2) Cash flow from operations (CF OPS) is a non-GAAP Slide 7------ Petroleum Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell P.L.C. and measures. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories (1) Represents Suncor's target for full-year 2016 operating, Total S.A. section. Cash flow from operations is calculated as cash selling and general (OS&G) expenses, excluding OS&G (4) Cash flow from operations and free cash flow are non flow from operating activities excluding changes in non relating to the additional 41.74% interest in the Syncrude GAAP measures. Cash flow from operations is cash working capital. project acquired by Suncor in the COS transaction and calculated as cash flow from operating activities (3) Other growth refers to projects Suncor has classified as anticipated to be acquired in the Murphy transaction. excluding changes in non-cash working capital. Free growth capital spending not including Fort Hills and See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. cash flow is calculated as cash flow from operations less Hebron. (2) Oil Sands operations cash operating costs per barrel, capital and exploration expenditures. See Non-GAAP (4) Figure represents anticipated total post sanction capital which excludes Syncrude, is a non-GAAP measures. Measures in the Advisories. Both metrics are converted for Fort Hills and Hebron to the end of 2017 less actual See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. to USO at the average exchange rate for the applicable spend to date as of March 31, 2016. See Forward Slide 8------year. Data for peers sources from FACTSET. Data for Looking Statements in the Advisories. (1) CFOPs is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP certain peers has not been based on information (5) Represents divestments of non-core assets anticipated Measures in the Advisories. Net debt is calculated as prepared in accordance with IFRS, and may not be during 2016. There can be no assurance that Suncor will total debt less cash and cash equivalents. comparable and should not be considered as a be able to complete such divestments on terms (2) Capitalization is defined as total debt+ (book) equity. substitute for measures prepared in accordance with acceptable to Suncor. See Forward-Looking Statements (3) US dollar debt converted at 0.77 US$ to C$, the IFRS. in the Advisories. exchange rate as at March 31, 2016. (5) Based on the average of shares outstanding in each (6) US dollar facility conv,3rted at 0.77 US$ to C$, the (4) US dollar facility converted at 0.77 US$ to C$, the year for 2011 to 2014 and as at December 31 , 2015 in exchange rate as at March 31 , 2016. exchange rate as at March 31 , 2016. the case of 2015. Slide 6----- (5) Canadian Peers in alphabetical order, not necessarily as (6) Figure does not include the $43 million worth of shares (1) Cash flow from operations and free cash flow are non they appear in the chart: Canadian Natural Resources repurchased in the twelve months ended December 31, GAAP measures. See Non-GAAP measures in the Limited, Cenovus Energy Inc., Husky Energy Inc., MEG 2015 ($0.03/share repurchased in 2015). Advisories section. Ce1sh flow from operations is Energy. Slide 4 calculated as cash flow from operating activities (6) As of April 22, 2016 (1) Includes pre-sanction offshore projects that are subject excluding changes in lnOn-cash working capital. Free to sanction and Board of Directors' approval. Offshore cash flow is calculatecl as cash flow from operations less includes EastCoast Canada and UK North Sea. Oil capital and exploration expenditures. See Non-GAAP continued ... Sands includes the 36.74% interest in Syncrude Measures in the Advisories. Both metrics are converted acquired on February 5, 2016 through the Canadian Oil to USO at the average, exchange rate for the applicable Sands Limited (COS) acquisition and assumes SUNCOR) 29 Slide Notes (continued) Slide 9------(4) Gross margins per beIrrel is defined as difference Slide 15------ (1) Assumes an expected 2016 quarterly dividend of between the total value of petroleum products produced (1) There can be no assurance that anticipated synergies, $0.29/share. All dividends are at the discretion of at a refinery less the cost of the feedstock, divided by reliability and technology will be realized Suncor's Board of Directors. See Forward-Looking total throughput. (2) Subject to change. Estimated impact has been factored Statements in the Advisories. (5) Last in first out refers to the GAAP method of inventory into annual guidance. (2) Global peers in alphabetical order, not necessarily as accounting, while Suncor reports on a first in first out Slide 16------ they appear in the chart: Anadarko Petroleum (FIFO) basis consistent with IFRS accounting policy. (1) Figure includes examples of major technology Corporation, Apache Corporation, Cenovus Energy Inc. , See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories developments within Suncor. The figure does not Chesapeake Energy Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Slide 12------ include the full list of technology projects being Canadian Natural Resources Limited, ConocoPhillips (1 ) Includes base plant operation projects that are subject developed within Suncor as well as involvement with Co., Devon Energy Corporation, Encana Corporation, to sanction and Board of Directors' approval. See Canada's Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA) and Enersis S.A., EOG Resources Inc., Exxon Mobil Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. Evok Innovations. Corporation, Hess Corporation, Husky Energy Inc., (2) Capacity numbers represent stream day volumes. (2) Electromagnetically Assisted Solvent Extraction (EASE) Imperial Oil Limited, Hess Corporation, Marathon Oil (3) Bitumen capacity of tl,e mine is dependent on ore is the general electrical solvent extraction technology Corporation, Murphy Oil Corporation, Occidental grade, which is variat>le. which is not specific to any reservoir or solvent type. Petroleum Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell PLC. and (4) Suncor's working interest in Sync rude includes the (3) Warm solvent extraction (N-SolvTM) Totals.A. 36.74% interest in Syncrude acquired on February 5, (4) Direct Contact Steam Generation (OCSG) (3) Compound annual growth rate (CAGR). 2016 and assumes rnmpletion of the acquisition of a (5) Permanent Aquatic Storage Structure (PASS) (4) Dividend yield is calculated dividend per share dividend further 5% of Syncrude from Murphy Oil Company Ltd. (6) Anticipated benefits oftechnology under development by Suncor closing share price on March 31, 2016 (Murphy) with an effective date of April 1, 2016. The may not be realized. See Forward-looking Statements in Slide 1u------Murphy transaction is subject to closing conditions, the Advisories. (1) Based on inland crude oil sold to coastal markets by including regulatory approval under the Competition Act. Slide 18 ------ pipeline and rail or processed at Suncor's refineries. See Forward-Lookin9 Statements in the Advisories. (1) Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) (2) Approximate total pipeline capacities based on publically (5) Debottlenecking oppe>rtunity currently in early stages of (2) Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) sourced information available at www.capp.ca and planning. See Forward-Looking Statements in the (3) Figure includes both direct and indirect CO2e emissions. www.enbridge.com Advisories. No credit is taken for GHG reductions due to cogen Slide 13------ export or purchased offsets. See Suncor's 2015 Report (3) Line 9 currently operating at reduced volumes under voluntary restriction (1) Represents anticipateid capital cost. Actual costs may on Sustainability for further details on the methodologies differ materially. See Forward-Looking Statements in used to calculated GHG emission intensities. Slide 11------ the Advisories. Slide20------ (1) Net earnings per barrel of capacity. Peers include: Alon, Slide 14 ------ (1) Market capitalization + debt - cash and cash equivalents CVR Refining, the US downstream divisions of Chevron (1) COS transaction includes equity consideration of (2) As at December 31 201.5 and assumes that and ExxonMobil, HollyFrontier, the downstream approximately $4.3 billion (based on the closing price of approximately 7.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of divisions of Imperial oil and Husky, Marathon Petroleum, Suncor shares on the TSX on initial acquisition date of proved and probable reserves (2P) are produced at a PBF Energy, Phillips 66, Tesoro, United Refining, Feb 5, 2016. Suncor 1took up shares at an exchange rate of 578 mboe/d, Suncor's average daily production Valero, and Western Refining. Suncor, CVR Refining ratio of 0.28) and CO:S estimated net debt of rate in 2015. Reserves are working interest before and Husky report net earnings on a FIFO inventory approximately $2.6 billion as at Feb 5, 2016. Murphy 5% royalties. See Reserves in the Advisories. valuation basis, while other peers report on a LIFO WI interest purchasecl at a value of $937 M, subject to basis, and therefore Suncor's net earnings in a given closing adjustments. period may not be comparable to those peers. Net (2) Suncor's working interest in Syncrude includes the earnings converted to USO at the average exchange 36.74% interest in Syncrude acquired on February 5, rate for the applicable year. 2016 and assumes completion of the acquisition of a (2) OS realization is the average sales price for Oil Sands further 5% of Syncrucle from Murphy Oil Company Ltd. (includes Sync rude), before royalties and net of (Murphy) with an efferctive date of April 1, 2016. The transportation costs. Feedstock cost is the average Murphy transaction is subject to closing conditions, crude oil purchase price including transportation costs including regulatory approval under the Competition Act. for Suncor's Edmonton, Denver Sarnia and Montreal See Forward-Lookin9 Statements in the Advisories. refineries. (3) Capital intensity is defined as the transaction value (3) R&M realization price represents revenue for all divided by the additional capacity on mbpd basis. products across all channels. 30 SUNCOR) Slide Notes (continued) Slide 21------ the piloted technology to demonstrate commercial in the Hibernia base project and, effective December 1 (1) Full guidance is available at suncor.com/guidance. See feasibility. 2015, the updated Suncor working interest in Hibernia Forward-looking Statements of the Advisories. (5) Technology viable foIr commercial deployment. Southern Extension Unit (HSEU) to 19. 13%. (2) Capital expenditures exclude capitalized interest of (6) Warm solvent extraction (N-SolvTM), Enhanced Solvent (3) The 2P reserves number is as at December 31, 2015, $600 million - $700 million. Extraction lncorporatiing Electromagnetic Heating and therefore does not reflect the modified Suncor WI. (3) Balance of capital expenditures represents sustaining (ESEIEH), Direct Contact Steam generation (DCSG), (4) Suncor Hebron working interest update effective as at capital. For definitions of growth and sustaining capital Automated Hauling System (AHS), Non-Condensable January 1, 2016. expenditures, see the Capital Investment Update Gas injection (NCG), Paraffinic Froth Treatment (PFT) Slide 27------ section ofthe MD&A. (7) A steam additive used to enhance the SAGO bitumen (1) Retail urban market share from The Kent Group Ltd. (4) At the time of publication, production in Libya continues recovery process Wind farm capacities are gross. to be affected by political unrest and therefore guidance Slide 25 ------ (2) Includes working interests in six operating wind farms is not being provided. Suncor Total Production excludes (1) Reserves are workin9 interest before royalties. See with gross installed capacity of 287 MW. Libya production. Reserves in the Advisories. The estimates of reserves (5) The upstream capital spending outlook includes for individual properties provided herein may not reflect approximately $400 million of sustaining capital for the same confidence level as estimates of reserves for Suncor's 48.74% share of Syncrude. Additional 5% WI all properties due to the effects of aggregation. Suncor's not included because the transaction has not yet 2P Reserves (gross) on a working interest basis for Oil closed. Sands Mining, In Sitll and total Canada respectively are (6) Reflects Suncor's 48.74% share of production from 3,760 mmbbls, 3,196 mmbbls, and 7,282 mmboe. Syncrude operations, based on Suncor's view of Suncor's 2P Reserve,s (gross) on a working interest for Syncrude's preliminary 2016 operating plan. Additional East Coast Canada, total Canada, and North Sea UK 5% WI not included because the transaction has not yet respectively are 318 mmboe, 7282 mmboe and 94 closed. mmboe. (7) Subjectto change. Estimated impacts have been (2) 2P reserves as at Dec. 31, 2015 updated to reflect factored into annual guidance. increased working interest in the Syncrude project Slide 22------ including the increme!ntal 5% interest expected to be (1) Full year pricing assumptions taken from Suncor's 2016 acquired from Murphy. That transaction is subject to guidance. See Forward-LookingStatements in the closing conditions, including regulatory approval under Advisories. the Competition Act. See Forward-LookingStatements Slide 23------in the Advisories. (1) Attributes are generalizations based on Suncor's (3) 2P reserves as at December 31, 2015 updated to analysis of its own projects and industry data. reflect the modified Suncor WI. (2) Annual cash flow profiles are based on representative Slide 26 ------ project economics (development capital, operating and (1) Reserves are workin!~ interest before royalties. See sustaining costs) using consistent assumptions for Reserves in the Advisories. The estimates of reserves future oil prices (including adjustments for quality, for individual properties provided herein may not reflect transportation and marketing costs), tax and royalty the same confidence level as estimates of reserves for rates. all properties due to the effects of aggregation. Suncor's Slide 2------2P Reserves (gross) on a working interest basis for Oil (1) Initial screening of technology which would include the Sands Mining, In Sitll and total Canada respectively are assessment of fundamental scientific principals and 3,760 mmbbls, 3,196 mmbbls, and 7,282 mmboe. potential business value behind the technology. Suncor's 2P Reserve,s (gross) on a working interest for (2) Evaluation oftechnology involves bench-scale testing East Coast Canada, total Canada, and North Sea UK (3) Pilot scale testing of the technology utilizing equipment respectively are 318 mmboe, 7282 mmboe and 94 that is representative of the process. mmboe. (4) Commercial scale demonstration involves scaling up (2) Weighted average of Suncor's 20.0% working interest 31 Investor Relations C,ontacts Vice President IR Manager IR Analyst IR 403 296 6622 403 296 6557 403 296 6639 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Visit us at the Investor Centre on suncor.com 1-800-558-9071 [email protected] I]