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Suncor Energy – Investor Presentation 2016 Q1

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Suncor Energy – Investor Presentation 2016 Q1 Suncor investment thesis Growth from inflight projects Cash generation vs 23 global peers3 Production1 increasembpd 850 $130 ■ Cash flow from operations• (US$/boe) $110 • Free cash flow' (US$/boe) 6% - Brent US$ 750 planned $90 CAGR2/share 650 $70 8% CAGR2/share $50 550 $30 450 $10 2011 2015 2019 -$10 ■ Planned 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Shareholder Return Balance Sheet ::.trength 190% Fiveyeardividend growth (Q1 2011 - Q1 2016) • Dividend per share5 • Buyback per share5,6 Liquidity $9.9 B $3.1 B cash and $6.8 B in available lines ofcredit Investment grade credit rating A1ow/ Moody's Corp (Baa1} Stable DBRS Rating Limited (A Low} NegativeTrend Baal Standard and Poor's Rating Services (A-} NegativeOutlook 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SUNC~ 2 • 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Soe Slide Notes and Advisories. Suncor value proposition Operational excellence • optimizing the base business • disciplined cost management • focus on safety, reliability and sustaina ility 3 SUNCOR) Strong production growth through the end of the decade Suncor's production growth forecast1 (mbpd) Hebron 800 E&P1 700 Syncrude 600 500 Fort Hills 400 Base Oil Sands 300 Firebag MacKay 200 Base Mine 100 Major Oil Sands Turnarounds3 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Guidance mid-point Planned Planned Planned SUNC~ 4 1, 2, 3 See SlideNotes and Advisories. Investing through the price cycle $7 8 WTI @ 33.50 US$ Available $1.28 credit $6 8 $6.86 8 $1.08 Other growth3 $5 8 $245 M + Cas~1& Capitalized short- erm Cash (8/S) interest de~t Planned $4 8 $0.88 $141 M $1 .1 8 $221 M Divestment5 $1.0-1.5 8 Fort Hills $0.68 $3 8 & Hebron Cash $720M Remaining $3.1 8 Fort Hills & $2 8 $0.48 Dividend Hebron $453M planned Spend4 $1 8 $0.28 $3.1 8 $0.08 ---- $0 8 Cash flow and cash reserves Cash and short term dlebt sustain operations & finance in-flight organic Ample liquidity to fund growth dividend growth Q1 2016 as at March 31, 2016 SUNCOR) 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6 See Slide•Notes and Advisories. An industry leader in cash flow generation - Levered to oil price Track record of top cash flow rankings Significant CFOPs upside potential Rankings based on 23 Global Peers2 Benchmarked off 01 2016 $682M CFOPs and 33.90 US$ realized Brent pricing, 0.73 CS/US$, $11 .75 NYH crack spread3 $120 - Cash flow from operations1 300% (US$/boe) $100 - Free cash flow1 (US$/boe) Incremental CFOPs sensitivity - Brent to Brent pricing (%) $80 200% $60 2 $40 100% $20 $0 0% $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 2014 2015 -$20 Brent price sensitivities Q2 Q3 a4 \ I 01 Q2 Q3 Q4* \ 01 2016* ,,_ Reflects continuous investment in strategic capital projects such as Fort Hills and Hebron 6 1, 2, 3 See Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNC~ Focused on sustainable cost reductions Operating, selling and general expenses Oil Sands cash operating costs2 C$ billions C$/bbl $~18 ~34% ,-----...... ~60% Reduction --. Controllable! $~500M l 2014 2015 Target 20161 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016 Base (Ex of cos) Driving down costs Productivity: Workforce reduction, technology application :Supply chain: Sole sourcing, contract concessions Business processes: Elimination of non-value added tQperational: Improved reliability, increased scale, work, streamlined reporting, reduced fly in fly out maintenance planning, energy inputs (non-controllable) 7 1, 2 See Slide No,tes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Financial strength in a challenging1 economic environment Conservative debt metrics Manageable debt profile net debt to CFOPS1 targetbelow 3x until Suncor has to refinance LT debt 2.Sx 2 years first significant maturity in 2018 March 31, 2016 total debt to capitalization2 of total LT debt due over coming decade 29 • 6%0 targetbetween 20%-30% < 50% $16.3 B total long-term debt3 March 31, 2016 as at March 31 , 2016 investment grade credit rating liquidity Moody's Corp (Baa1) Stable Alow/ $9.9B 4 OBRS Rating Limited(A Low) NegativeTrend cash & cash equivalents ($3.1B) plus available creditfacilities Baal Standard and Poor's Rating Services (A-) Negative Outlook as at March 31 , 2016 Strong credit rating relative to peers5,6 Suncor - S&P - Moody's Canadian peers I 111 I n1I n I ~ - S&P I I )( [Q(IJ [<)' [Qx [<) [<)' '»'<l) rs-(IJ' c,v ~~ ~ ~ ~~ c;cl ~ 'Y'~ ~~ <l) (I) - Moody's ~ ~<Q '»'<Q 'S'<Q ....~ (IJ'lf <l) ~c; '»'c; 'l>'b- (IJ'b- <l)'l, ,z,'b- 'l>'b- 'l>'b- 'l>'l> Ci ~ ~ ~ C, Investment Grade l Speculative Grade 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 se,e Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNC~ Returning cash to shareholders Historical dividend growth Top quartile in global peer group2 Annual dividendpershare Fiveyeardividend growth (Q1 2011 - Q1 2016) 200% 190% 100% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 20161 Expected -100% quarterly dividend per share1 dividend yield1,4 29( "'3% as at March 31 , 2015 5-year dividend CAGR1, 3 5-year total shareholder return >20% 2011-2016 +15% including reinvested dividends 2011 -2015 consecutive dividend increases1 years shares outstanding repurchased 14 10% 2011 -2015 9 1, 2, 3, 4 See Slide•Notes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Market access strategy for inland ioil production Suncor has approximately 700 mbpd of near-term access to globally priced markets1 Suncor refinery capacity I.... m: pd ) Suncor rail loading capacity Pipeline Current total pipeline capacity2 - Gathering lines TMX \ - 300 mbpd capacity2 Express/Rocky Mountain Sa,tF,i:ancisco , ., 280 mbpd capacity2 0 TransCanada Keystone 590 mbpd capacity2 0 Los Angel es Enbridge Mainline 2.6 mbpd capacity2 Enbridge Line 9 300 mbpd capacity2,3 Flanagan South Pipeline System 2 0 St James 585 mbpd capacity Houston/Texas City Marine opportunities SUNCOR) 10 1, 2, 3 See Slide•N otes and Advisories. Refining & Marketing - the value 01f integration R&M net earnings1 Suncor Peers1 2016 Q1 prices and crude costs2 US$/bbl ofcapacity High C$/bbl Average • Low 15 • 10 • Brent 5 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oil Sands realization Feedstock cost R&M realization3 Refinery feedstock Realized GM4/bbl vs. NYH 3-2-1 benchmark Percent of refining capacity All Suncor refineries - 01 2016 ■ %Inland % Offshore --.% Suncor Crude $16.08 - - Benchmark Benchmark Crude Product mix Yield / Realized GM FIFO G/(L) Realized GM crack (US$) crack (C$) differential and local Feedstock/ (LIFO)' (FIFO) differential Other SUNCOR) 11 1, 2, 3, 4,5 See SlideNotes and Advisories. Oil Sands production exceeds 700 mbpd by 20191 Debottlenecks, expansions and growth projects expected to raise total Oil Sands production from 463 mbpd (2015) up to 700mbpd. Firebag • 23 mbpd debottleneckcompleted in Q4 2015 • eapacity2: 203 mbpd bitumen Base Mine Extraction • Extraction debottleneckcomplete • Notiiona13 eapacity2: 325 to 350 mbpd bitumen Syncrude -~ .,,. • 53.74% SU Wl4 2 f' 1/•eapacity : 188 mbpd (SU WI) sec MacKay River • 8 mbpd debottleneck completed inQ4 2015 • eapacity2: 38 mbpdbitumen Base Upgrading Opera • Potential 10% future debottlenec • eapaclty2: 350 mbpd sec 0% upgrading y ield loss ,--~ Logistics Fort Hills Future growth projects will be • Increased SU WI to 50.8% integratedwith existing • Underconstruction logistics infrastructure • eapacity2: 91 mbpd(SU WI) PFT bitumen SUNCOR) 12 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 See Slide Notes and Advisories. Fort Hills progressing on plan Suncor working interest 50.8% Bitumen production capacity Diluent 9lmbpd netto Suncor SAGO bitumen blended barrel PFT bitumen blended barrel $6.5B capital cost estimate1 netto Suncor from project sanction to first oil Hydrouonspon Rowy fine \Wl ~ construction complete 55% as at March 31, 2016 work force on site 5000 as at March 31 , 2016 construction hours 21M+ withoutenvironmental, health and safety or regulatory enforcementaction no upgrader needed PFT froth treatmentleaves heaviestofthe carbon molecules inthe ground, resulting in a higher Tallngs ScparatlOO Froth IHydlocarbon Bitumen quality, less CO2 intensive bitumen. PFTbitumen can poo<J <ell storage tank solvent p,oduCI tanks be blended(at a lowerratio) and movedirectlyto market 13 1 See Slide Notes and Advisories. SUNCOR) Suncor's acquisition of additional Syncrude working interest - Syncrude properties Suncor_& other JV properties - COS transaction 1 21 2016 assumed Debt March closing date $2.6 B cos Murphy transaction 1 2016 shares issued for COS April anticipated effectivedate -136 M 2 3 total Suncor WI $/mbpd capital intensity 53.74% 41 .74% WI expected to be acquired in 2016 54k based on 350 mbpd capacity 2 2 value of transactions1 MMbbls expected 2P Reserves $7.8 8 2264 53.74%2 WI in Syncrude asset SUNCOR) 14 1, 2 See Slide Notes and Advisories Syncrude performance Syncrude utilization (%) 113 mbpd Q1 2016 production (SU WI) ""91 % 12% Suncor WI up to February 5 48.74% Suncor WI from February 6 _.., 91 Ofo Q1 2016 Syncrude utilization real1ization ofpeak production rates early stages of a multi year plan to achieve >90% continuous reliability planned outage impact2 on Q2 production volumes (SU WI) tumaround beginning April 1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 01 2016 Unlocking value & realizing benefits through 1: Synergies Reliability Technology SUNCOR) 15 1,2 See Slide Notes and Advisories 1 6 Technology development portfolio • Reduce GHG emissions Reduce costs & improve Reduce tailings/ water / intensity profitability land footprint Surface rocess (lean facility development) Enhanced SAG recovery processes (steam+ additives) In Situ Steam g neration technology (e.g. OCSG4) Non-steam re overy processes (e.g. EASE2 , NSolv3) Extra tion processes (non-aqueous) Froth treatment technologies (PFT) Mining and Extraction Tailings processes (closure & PASS5) Autonomous ha I system (AHS) Renewablie diluent Refiningand Upgrading De-salting 16 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 SeEi SlideNotes
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