Theory of the Filtrations of the Sigma-Fields and Its Applications
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Notes on Elementary Martingale Theory 1 Conditional Expectations
. Notes on Elementary Martingale Theory by John B. Walsh 1 Conditional Expectations 1.1 Motivation Probability is a measure of ignorance. When new information decreases that ignorance, it changes our probabilities. Suppose we roll a pair of dice, but don't look immediately at the outcome. The result is there for anyone to see, but if we haven't yet looked, as far as we are concerned, the probability that a two (\snake eyes") is showing is the same as it was before we rolled the dice, 1/36. Now suppose that we happen to see that one of the two dice shows a one, but we do not see the second. We reason that we have rolled a two if|and only if|the unseen die is a one. This has probability 1/6. The extra information has changed the probability that our roll is a two from 1/36 to 1/6. It has given us a new probability, which we call a conditional probability. In general, if A and B are events, we say the conditional probability that B occurs given that A occurs is the conditional probability of B given A. This is given by the well-known formula P A B (1) P B A = f \ g; f j g P A f g providing P A > 0. (Just to keep ourselves out of trouble if we need to apply this to a set f g of probability zero, we make the convention that P B A = 0 if P A = 0.) Conditional probabilities are familiar, but that doesn't stop themf fromj g giving risef tog many of the most puzzling paradoxes in probability. -
Partnership As Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949
Yale University EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale Discussion Papers Economic Growth Center 5-1-2017 Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949 Cihan Artunç Timothy Guinnane Follow this and additional works at: https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series Recommended Citation Artunç, Cihan and Guinnane, Timothy, "Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949" (2017). Discussion Papers. 1065. https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series/1065 This Discussion Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the Economic Growth Center at EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. It has been accepted for inclusion in Discussion Papers by an authorized administrator of EliScholar – A Digital Platform for Scholarly Publishing at Yale. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ECONOMIC GROWTH CENTER YALE UNIVERSITY P.O. Box 208269 New Haven, CT 06520-8269 http://www.econ.yale.edu/~egcenter Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper No. 1057 Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949 Cihan Artunç University of Arizona Timothy W. Guinnane Yale University Notes: Center discussion papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comments. This paper can be downloaded without charge from the Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2973315 Partnership as Experimentation: Business Organization and Survival in Egypt, 1910–1949 Cihan Artunç⇤ Timothy W. Guinnane† This Draft: May 2017 Abstract The relationship between legal forms of firm organization and economic develop- ment remains poorly understood. Recent research disputes the view that the joint-stock corporation played a crucial role in historical economic development, but retains the view that the costless firm dissolution implicit in non-corporate forms is detrimental to investment. -
The Theory of Filtrations of Subalgebras, Standardness and Independence
The theory of filtrations of subalgebras, standardness and independence Anatoly M. Vershik∗ 24.01.2017 In memory of my friend Kolya K. (1933{2014) \Independence is the best quality, the best word in all languages." J. Brodsky. From a personal letter. Abstract The survey is devoted to the combinatorial and metric theory of fil- trations, i. e., decreasing sequences of σ-algebras in measure spaces or decreasing sequences of subalgebras of certain algebras. One of the key notions, that of standardness, plays the role of a generalization of the no- tion of the independence of a sequence of random variables. We discuss the possibility of obtaining a classification of filtrations, their invariants, and various links to problems in algebra, dynamics, and combinatorics. Bibliography: 101 titles. Contents 1 Introduction 3 1.1 A simple example and a difficult question . .3 1.2 Three languages of measure theory . .5 1.3 Where do filtrations appear? . .6 1.4 Finite and infinite in classification problems; standardness as a generalization of independence . .9 arXiv:1705.06619v1 [math.DS] 18 May 2017 1.5 A summary of the paper . 12 2 The definition of filtrations in measure spaces 13 2.1 Measure theory: a Lebesgue space, basic facts . 13 2.2 Measurable partitions, filtrations . 14 2.3 Classification of measurable partitions . 16 ∗St. Petersburg Department of Steklov Mathematical Institute; St. Petersburg State Uni- versity Institute for Information Transmission Problems. E-mail: [email protected]. Par- tially supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant No. 14-11-00581). 1 2.4 Classification of finite filtrations . 17 2.5 Filtrations we consider and how one can define them . -
A Model of Gene Expression Based on Random Dynamical Systems Reveals Modularity Properties of Gene Regulatory Networks†
A Model of Gene Expression Based on Random Dynamical Systems Reveals Modularity Properties of Gene Regulatory Networks† Fernando Antoneli1,4,*, Renata C. Ferreira3, Marcelo R. S. Briones2,4 1 Departmento de Informática em Saúde, Escola Paulista de Medicina (EPM), Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), SP, Brasil 2 Departmento de Microbiologia, Imunologia e Parasitologia, Escola Paulista de Medicina (EPM), Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), SP, Brasil 3 College of Medicine, Pennsylvania State University (Hershey), PA, USA 4 Laboratório de Genômica Evolutiva e Biocomplexidade, EPM, UNIFESP, Ed. Pesquisas II, Rua Pedro de Toledo 669, CEP 04039-032, São Paulo, Brasil Abstract. Here we propose a new approach to modeling gene expression based on the theory of random dynamical systems (RDS) that provides a general coupling prescription between the nodes of any given regulatory network given the dynamics of each node is modeled by a RDS. The main virtues of this approach are the following: (i) it provides a natural way to obtain arbitrarily large networks by coupling together simple basic pieces, thus revealing the modularity of regulatory networks; (ii) the assumptions about the stochastic processes used in the modeling are fairly general, in the sense that the only requirement is stationarity; (iii) there is a well developed mathematical theory, which is a blend of smooth dynamical systems theory, ergodic theory and stochastic analysis that allows one to extract relevant dynamical and statistical information without solving -
POISSON PROCESSES 1.1. the Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis
POISSON PROCESSES 1. THE LAW OF SMALL NUMBERS 1.1. The Rutherford-Chadwick-Ellis Experiment. About 90 years ago Ernest Rutherford and his collaborators at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge conducted a series of pathbreaking experiments on radioactive decay. In one of these, a radioactive substance was observed in N = 2608 time intervals of 7.5 seconds each, and the number of decay particles reaching a counter during each period was recorded. The table below shows the number Nk of these time periods in which exactly k decays were observed for k = 0,1,2,...,9. Also shown is N pk where k pk = (3.87) exp 3.87 =k! {− g The parameter value 3.87 was chosen because it is the mean number of decays/period for Rutherford’s data. k Nk N pk k Nk N pk 0 57 54.4 6 273 253.8 1 203 210.5 7 139 140.3 2 383 407.4 8 45 67.9 3 525 525.5 9 27 29.2 4 532 508.4 10 16 17.1 5 408 393.5 ≥ This is typical of what happens in many situations where counts of occurences of some sort are recorded: the Poisson distribution often provides an accurate – sometimes remarkably ac- curate – fit. Why? 1.2. Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution. The ubiquity of the Poisson distri- bution in nature stems in large part from its connection to the Binomial and Hypergeometric distributions. The Binomial-(N ,p) distribution is the distribution of the number of successes in N independent Bernoulli trials, each with success probability p. -
An Application of Probability Theory in Finance: the Black-Scholes Formula
AN APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY THEORY IN FINANCE: THE BLACK-SCHOLES FORMULA EFFY FANG Abstract. In this paper, we start from the building blocks of probability the- ory, including σ-field and measurable functions, and then proceed to a formal introduction of probability theory. Later, we introduce stochastic processes, martingales and Wiener processes in particular. Lastly, we present an appli- cation - the Black-Scholes Formula, a model used to price options in financial markets. Contents 1. The Building Blocks 1 2. Probability 4 3. Martingales 7 4. Wiener Processes 8 5. The Black-Scholes Formula 9 References 14 1. The Building Blocks Consider the set Ω of all possible outcomes of a random process. When the set is small, for example, the outcomes of tossing a coin, we can analyze case by case. However, when the set gets larger, we would need to study the collections of subsets of Ω that may be taken as a suitable set of events. We define such a collection as a σ-field. Definition 1.1. A σ-field on a set Ω is a collection F of subsets of Ω which obeys the following rules or axioms: (a) Ω 2 F (b) if A 2 F, then Ac 2 F 1 S1 (c) if fAngn=1 is a sequence in F, then n=1 An 2 F The pair (Ω; F) is called a measurable space. Proposition 1.2. Let (Ω; F) be a measurable space. Then (1) ; 2 F k SK (2) if fAngn=1 is a finite sequence of F-measurable sets, then n=1 An 2 F 1 T1 (3) if fAngn=1 is a sequence of F-measurable sets, then n=1 An 2 F Date: August 28,2015. -
Mathematical Finance an Introduction in Discrete Time
Jan Kallsen Mathematical Finance An introduction in discrete time CAU zu Kiel, WS 13/14, February 10, 2014 Contents 0 Some notions from stochastics 4 0.1 Basics . .4 0.1.1 Probability spaces . .4 0.1.2 Random variables . .5 0.1.3 Conditional probabilities and expectations . .6 0.2 Absolute continuity and equivalence . .7 0.3 Conditional expectation . .8 0.3.1 σ-fields . .8 0.3.2 Conditional expectation relative to a σ-field . 10 1 Discrete stochastic calculus 16 1.1 Stochastic processes . 16 1.2 Martingales . 18 1.3 Stochastic integral . 20 1.4 Intuitive summary of some notions from this chapter . 27 2 Modelling financial markets 36 2.1 Assets and trading strategies . 36 2.2 Arbitrage . 39 2.3 Dividend payments . 41 2.4 Concrete models . 43 3 Derivative pricing and hedging 48 3.1 Contingent claims . 49 3.2 Liquidly traded derivatives . 50 3.3 Individual perspective . 54 3.4 Examples . 56 3.4.1 Forward contract . 56 3.4.2 Futures contract . 57 3.4.3 European call and put options in the binomial model . 57 3.4.4 European call and put options in the standard model . 61 3.5 American options . 63 2 CONTENTS 3 4 Incomplete markets 70 4.1 Martingale modelling . 70 4.2 Variance-optimal hedging . 72 5 Portfolio optimization 73 5.1 Maximizing expected utility of terminal wealth . 73 6 Elements of continuous-time finance 80 6.1 Continuous-time theory . 80 6.2 Black-Scholes model . 84 Chapter 0 Some notions from stochastics 0.1 Basics 0.1.1 Probability spaces This course requires a decent background in stochastics which cannot be provided here. -
4 Martingales in Discrete-Time
4 Martingales in Discrete-Time Suppose that (Ω, F, P) is a probability space. Definition 4.1. A sequence F = {Fn, n = 0, 1,...} is called a filtration if each Fn is a sub-σ-algebra of F, and Fn ⊆ Fn+1 for n = 0, 1, 2,.... In other words, a filtration is an increasing sequence of sub-σ-algebras of F. For nota- tional convenience, we define ∞ ! [ F∞ = σ Fn n=1 and note that F∞ ⊆ F. Definition 4.2. If F = {Fn, n = 0, 1,...} is a filtration, and X = {Xn, n = 0, 1,...} is a discrete-time stochastic process, then X is said to be adapted to F if Xn is Fn-measurable for each n. Note that by definition every process {Xn, n = 0, 1,...} is adapted to its natural filtration {Fn, n = 0, 1,...} where Fn = σ(X0,...,Xn). The intuition behind the idea of a filtration is as follows. At time n, all of the information about ω ∈ Ω that is known to us at time n is contained in Fn. As n increases, our knowledge of ω also increases (or, if you prefer, does not decrease) and this is captured in the fact that the filtration consists of an increasing sequence of sub-σ-algebras. Definition 4.3. A discrete-time stochastic process X = {Xn, n = 0, 1,...} is called a martingale (with respect to the filtration F = {Fn, n = 0, 1,...}) if for each n = 0, 1, 2,..., (a) X is adapted to F; that is, Xn is Fn-measurable, 1 (b) Xn is in L ; that is, E|Xn| < ∞, and (c) E(Xn+1|Fn) = Xn a.s. -
The Entropy Function for Non Polynomial Problems and Its Applications for Turing Machines
Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 30 January 2020 doi:10.20944/preprints202001.0360.v1 The entropy function for non polynomial problems and its applications for turing machines. Matheus Santana Harvard Extension School [email protected] Abstract We present a general process for the halting problem, valid regardless of the time and space computational complexity of the decision problem. It can be interpreted as the maximization of entropy for the utility function of a given Shannon-Kolmogorov-Bernoulli process. Applications to non-polynomials prob- lems are given. The new interpretation of information rate proposed in this work is a method that models the solution space boundaries of any decision problem (and non polynomial problems in general) as a communication channel by means of Information Theory. We described a sort method that order objects using the intrinsic information content distribution for the elements of a constrained solution space - modeled as messages transmitted through any communication systems. The limits of the search space are defined by the Kolmogorov-Chaitin complexity of the sequences encoded as Shannon-Bernoulli strings. We conclude with a discussion about the implications for general decision problems in Turing machines. Keywords: Computational Complexity, Information Theory, Machine Learning, Computational Statistics, Kolmogorov-Chaitin Complexity; Kelly criterion 1. Introduction Consider a Shanon-Bernoulli process P defined as a sequence of independent binary random variables X1, X2, X3 . Xn. For each element the value can be Preprint submitted to Journal of Information and Computation January 29, 2020 © 2020 by the author(s). Distributed under a Creative Commons CC BY license. -
A Structural Approach to Solving the 6Th Hilbert Problem Udc 519.21
Teor Imovr.taMatem.Statist. Theor. Probability and Math. Statist. Vip. 71, 2004 No. 71, 2005, Pages 165–179 S 0094-9000(05)00656-3 Article electronically published on December 30, 2005 A STRUCTURAL APPROACH TO SOLVING THE 6TH HILBERT PROBLEM UDC 519.21 YU. I. PETUNIN AND D. A. KLYUSHIN Abstract. The paper deals with an approach to solving the 6th Hilbert problem based on interpreting the field of random events as a partially ordered set endowed with a natural order of random events obtained by formalization and modification of the frequency definition of probability. It is shown that the field of events forms an atomic generated, complete, and completely distributive Boolean algebra. The probability distribution of the field of events generated by random variables is studied. It is proved that the probability distribution generated by random variables is not a measure but only a finitely additive function of events in the case of continuous random variables (both rational- and real-valued). Introduction In 1900 in his lecture [1] David Hilbert formulated the problem of axiomatization of probability theory. Here is the corresponding quote from his lecture: “The investigations on the foundations of geometry suggest the problem: To treat in the same manner, by means of axioms, those physical sciences in which mathematics plays an important part; in the first rank are the theory of probabilities and mechanics. As to the axioms of the theory of probabilities, it seems to me desirable that their logical investigation should be accompanied by a rigorous and satisfactory development of the method of mean values in mathematical physics, and in particular in the kinetic theory of gases.” As is well known [2], there is no generally accepted solution of this problem so far. -
Contents-Preface
Stochastic Processes From Applications to Theory CHAPMAN & HA LL/CRC Texts in Statis tical Science Series Series Editors Francesca Dominici, Harvard School of Public Health, USA Julian J. Faraway, University of Bath, U K Martin Tanner, Northwestern University, USA Jim Zidek, University of Br itish Columbia, Canada Statistical !eory: A Concise Introduction Statistics for Technology: A Course in Applied F. Abramovich and Y. Ritov Statistics, !ird Edition Practical Multivariate Analysis, Fifth Edition C. Chat!eld A. A!!, S. May, and V.A. Clark Analysis of Variance, Design, and Regression : Practical Statistics for Medical Research Linear Modeling for Unbalanced Data, D.G. Altman Second Edition R. Christensen Interpreting Data: A First Course in Statistics Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis: An A.J.B. Anderson Introduction for Scientists and Statisticians Introduction to Probability with R R. Christensen, W. Johnson, A. Branscum, K. Baclawski and T.E. Hanson Linear Algebra and Matrix Analysis for Modelling Binary Data, Second Edition Statistics D. Collett S. Banerjee and A. Roy Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research, Mathematical Statistics: Basic Ideas and !ird Edition Selected Topics, Volume I, D. Collett Second Edition Introduction to Statistical Methods for P. J. Bickel and K. A. Doksum Clinical Trials Mathematical Statistics: Basic Ideas and T.D. Cook and D.L. DeMets Selected Topics, Volume II Applied Statistics: Principles and Examples P. J. Bickel and K. A. Doksum D.R. Cox and E.J. Snell Analysis of Categorical Data with R Multivariate Survival Analysis and Competing C. R. Bilder and T. M. Loughin Risks Statistical Methods for SPC and TQM M. -
Notes on Stochastic Processes
Notes on stochastic processes Paul Keeler March 20, 2018 This work is licensed under a “CC BY-SA 3.0” license. Abstract A stochastic process is a type of mathematical object studied in mathemat- ics, particularly in probability theory, which can be used to represent some type of random evolution or change of a system. There are many types of stochastic processes with applications in various fields outside of mathematics, including the physical sciences, social sciences, finance and economics as well as engineer- ing and technology. This survey aims to give an accessible but detailed account of various stochastic processes by covering their history, various mathematical definitions, and key properties as well detailing various terminology and appli- cations of the process. An emphasis is placed on non-mathematical descriptions of key concepts, with recommendations for further reading. 1 Introduction In probability and related fields, a stochastic or random process, which is also called a random function, is a mathematical object usually defined as a collection of random variables. Historically, the random variables were indexed by some set of increasing numbers, usually viewed as time, giving the interpretation of a stochastic process representing numerical values of some random system evolv- ing over time, such as the growth of a bacterial population, an electrical current fluctuating due to thermal noise, or the movement of a gas molecule [120, page 7][51, page 46 and 47][66, page 1]. Stochastic processes are widely used as math- ematical models of systems and phenomena that appear to vary in a random manner. They have applications in many disciplines including physical sciences such as biology [67, 34], chemistry [156], ecology [16][104], neuroscience [102], and physics [63] as well as technology and engineering fields such as image and signal processing [53], computer science [15], information theory [43, page 71], and telecommunications [97][11][12].