Introduction
Ten Euros on Liverpool to win - it sounds like something you’d hear in a bustling vil- lage pub. For many sports fans, betting is a popular way to make a match even more exciting than it already is. But for BetmanBegins it’s more, much more.
The successful sports gambler doesn’t make wild predictions: he constantly looks for situations where bookmakers have made a mistake. These are bets where he’s convinced that the bookmaker has misjudged the odds or the odds of winning. That is the only thing he bets on. And with this approach the gambler will be profitable in the long term. Something that only 2% of players can say.
Are you interested in joining that 2%? Then with this sports betting guide you’ll have all the cards in your hands. What is an ‘Asian Handicap’? How do I find the ‘best bet’? The BetmanBegins Betting Bible offers not only theoretical background knowledge but also unique, practical tips from the expert BetmanBegins. And these are worth their weight in gold for those who want to gamble profitably. There’s advice for everyone; whether you have never placed a bet in your life or are an experienced player.
www.betmanbegins.com 2 Who is BetmanBegins?
BetmanBegins is a successful gambler in the sports betting market. As a student he bet money on a game of poker for the first time. Bitten by sports and numbers, he ended up at an online sports betting bookmaker in London in 2015, after graduating from university. There he learned the tricks of the trade. But even after his working hours, he was still working trying to find new ways to outwit the bookmakers.
In 2016 BetmanBegins took the plunge. He entered the wonderful world of sports betting as a player. In 2019, he said goodbye to the London bookmaker in order to de- vote himself full-time to his passion.
In the meantime, BetmanBegins has built up capital of €1 million through sports bet- ting. A lucrative sum, but far from being satisfied with that, he is still searching the internet for the mistakes and errors made by bookmakers. And now he shares his un- missable tips & tricks with the outside world, in the form of a Betting Bible.
www.betmanbegins.com 3 A manual in seven parts
The e-book is divided into seven different chapters. The first chapter deals with the basic principles of sports betting. It also discusses the most popular betting markets. Do you already have betting experience? Then perhaps you can start right away with the second chapter. This section explains how to beat bookmakers. Since bankroll management is crucial in this respect, this will certainly be discussed here. The third chapter discusses why odds are constantly changing. It is essential to compare the odds for a match with different bookmakers in order to always be able to bet on the most advantageous option. Chapter 4 contains practical tips on how best to do this. Chapter 5 discusses exactly how to find profitable bets. In addition, measuring results is important. Chapter 6 is about that. Finally, all the information and tips are summa- rised in chapter 7.
www.betmanbegins.com 4 Table of contents
Introduction 2 5.3 Focus on extreme conditions 27 Who is BetmanBegins? 3 5.4 Don’t rely too much on statistics 28 A manual in seven parts 4 5.5 Leave emotions behind 29 1 General principles 6 5.6 Keep an eye on social media 29 1.1 What is a bookmaker? 6 5.7 Beware of multiple bets 30 1.2 What are odds? 7 5.8 Specialise in less popular 1.3 How do bookmakers make a profit? 7 competitions 32 1.4 Pre-match and live 9 5.9 Don’t limit yourself to low 1.5 Single and multiple bets 10 or high odds 33 1.6 Betting markets 11 5.10 Don’t limit yourself to a favourite 2 Beating bookmakers 16 or underdog 34 2.1 Example – coin toss 17 5.11 Make use of bonuses 35 2.2 Bankroll management 17 5.12 Avoid unethical techniques 35 3 Odds change continuously 19 5.13 Be selective when following tippers 37 3.1 News 19 5.14 Conclusion: what should I do next? 38 3.2 Wise guys 20 6 How do you measure results? 40 3.3 Arbitration 20 6.1 Win Rate 40 4 Alternative ways to determine odds 22 6.2 Average odds 41 4.1 Pinnacle 22 6.3 Return 41 4.2 Betfair Exchange 23 6.4 Previous data 42 5 Selecting bets 25 6.5 Results-oriented 43 5.1 Compare between bookmakers 25 6.6 Closing Odds 43 5.2 Pay extra attention to odds that 7 Final conclusions 45 are just online 26 8 Useful websites 46
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www.betmanbegins.com 5 1. General principles
We start from the beginning. In this chapter you will become acquainted with the basic principles of sports betting. With a sport bet you make a prediction and you bet money on that prediction happening. If it is correct, you get your stake back plus that amount multiplied by your odds. If your prediction is wrong, you lose the stake. Sounds simple? It is. But the strategies to make this concept profitable are not.
1.1 What is a bookmaker?
A bookmaker or ‘bookie’ is a company that makes “ betting on sports events possible. Bookmakers can For each bet of- therefore accept bets on the outcome of an event fered, a book- or an event during the match. Most bookmakers maker gives offer various competitions and types of bets (‘bet- ‘odds’. ting markets’) to gamble on. For each bet offered, a bookmaker gives ‘odds’. “
www.betmanbegins.com 6 1.2 What are odds?
Odds are numbers that bookmakers use to show the chance that a certain event will occur. For example, if you win a bet with odds of 3.00, the bookmaker will pay you €30 if you bet €10. In that case, you make a profit of €20. This is called the decimal odds display. In the United Kingdom and Australia, odds are displayed as a fraction, in the United States they are displayed in an American odds ratio.
By dividing the number 1 by the odds, you calculate the probability. Odds of 2.00 indi- cate that, according to the bookies, the probability of a certain event is 1/2.00 or 50%. This probability is mainly determined by algorithms, but sometimes manual adjust- ments are made.
You will only be profitable in the long term if the real TIP chance of a certain event occurring is higher than the odds indicate.
1.3 How do bookmakers make a profit?
Bookmakers set a profit margin within the odds. Suppose bookies think that both players in a tennis match have a 50% chance of winning the match. That should cor- respond to both players having odds of 2.00. And yet bookies will not offer you odds of 2.00, but 1.90, for example. If you bet €50 on both players, you will get €95 back, no matter who wins the tennis match. Since the bet is €100, the payback is 95%. The profit margin of the bookmaker is 5%.
www.betmanbegins.com 7 “ The profit margins used may vary considerably. Firstly, there is a difference per bookmaker. The Liquidity is a large bookies often have a lower profit margin. The measure of how profit margin will also differ per match and even much money is per type of bet. But what factors actually influence wagered on a a bookmaker’s profit margin? The most important betting market. one is liquidity. That is a measure of how much mon- ey is wagered on a betting market. In other words, “ it is the popularity of the betting market. When it comes to betting on the winner of a match in the Champions League, bookmakers are often satisfied with a profit margin of 3%. After all, a great deal of money is wagered on this type of bet. Players’ betting patterns therefore help bookmakers to better as- sess odds. Furthermore, a lot of information is publicly available at popular matches. As a result, bookmakers are able to make an accurate estimate of odds. Even with a low profit margin, they will still make a profit.
On less popular bets, however, the profit margin of bookmakers can quickly reach ten, fifteen or even twenty per cent. This is the case, for example, with betting mar- kets such as goal scorer or correct score.
Bookmakers will also have a higher profit margin in lesser-known matches. In the Premier League, for example, the profit margin for bookmakers is very low, but it will be many times higher in, let’s say, the Belarusian reserve league. Although betting on such leagues can have a great deal of potential. The Betting Bible will come back to that later.
The bigger the bookmaker’s profit margin, the TIP bigger the bookmaker’s mistake must be, in order to make betting profitable in the long term.
www.betmanbegins.com 8 1.4 Pre-match and live
Bookmakers offer both pre-match and live betting markets. Pre-match means that you place the bet before the match starts. Live bets are placed while the match is in progress.
Sometimes bookmakers will no longer offer certain bets. This is typically the case when the match is in progress (live). Bookmakers do this because some moments in a match are too un- certain to accurately determine the odds. A VAR review is a good example of this. After all, the VAR’s decision often has too great an influence on the odds. If the VAR has not yet made a de- cision, the risk is too great to offer the bet. The odds are frozen, as it were, until the bookie can again make correct estimates.
It even happens that bookmakers no longer offer a bet before the match starts at all. The reason for this is risk management. If, for example, the media suddenly announces that several players are ill, a team has financial problems ... this creates a great deal of uncer- tainty. If the risk is so high, a bookie may decide to stop offering a bet on that match.
Bookmakers have a higher profit margin on live bets TIP than on pre-match bets. So, try to limit the number of live bets.
www.betmanbegins.com 9 1.5 Single and multiple bets
As a player, you can place a single or multiple bet. A single bet is limited to one selec- tion. A multiple combines several bets. In a multiple, the odds are multiplied with each other. Suppose you think Chelsea (odds 2.00) and Manchester City (odds 1.50) will win. If you combine these in one bet, you will get odds of 3.00. A multiple bet can only be won if you have won every single bet selection that makes up the multiple bet – so in this example, Chelsea and Manchester City both need to win.
The latter is not the case with a system bet, which allows the risk to be spread more widely. For example, if you choose four bets, you can make many possible combina- tions with those bets. For the sake of simplicity, we call those bets A, B, C and D. There are various possibilities. You can play them all as single bets. You can also choose to place double bets. In that case, with four bets, six combinations are possible. Or you can make all the bets into one multiple bet.
Number in multiple Possible combinations Single A, B, C and D Double AB, AC, AD, BC, BD and CD Three-fold ABC, ABD, ACD and BCD Four-fold ABCD
Suppose you win bets A, B and C, but you lose bet D. Then the outcome for the mul- tiple bets is as follows. If you have only placed double bets, you still win three out of six combinations. After all, bet D is not included in three combinations. If you have cho- sen triple bets, there is one combination in which bet D is not included. So, you win one of the four triple bets. You lose the quadruple bet.
System betting is a great way to reduce your risk TIP when betting on multiple bets.
www.betmanbegins.com 10 1.6 Betting markets
For every match a bookmaker will let you choose from many different betting mar- kets. A betting market is a type of bet. In this section we explain a few types.
1x2
Win/draw/loss is the most popular bet. Here you bet on which team will win or opt for a draw, within the standard 90-minute period. Goals scored in extra time would not count.
Draw no bet
You bet whether the home or away team will win. However, if the game ends in a tie (‘draw’) and there is no winner, your bet will be returned (‘no bet’).
Asian Handicap
The ‘Asian Handicap’ is perhaps the most complex betting market. With this type of betting you give the team you are betting on a virtual advantage or disadvantage. Es- pecially when there is a clear favourite in the match, this is an interesting betting mar- ket. The Asian Handicap has three types: the half line, the full line and the quarter line.
The first form of Asian Handicap is half the line. In this case, the team on which you bet always gets a lead or a disadvantage in the form of a multiple of 0.5. For example, if you bet on the home team winning with an Asian Handicap of -1.5, this team must win by at least two goals more than the other team. Suppose the home team wins 2-1. Then the score becomes 0.5 - 1 after one and a half points have been subtracted from the team you bet on with an Asian Handicap. So, the team you bet on does not
www.betmanbegins.com 11 win and you lose the bet. In case of a 3-0 victory “ the score would become 1.5 - 0 after the applica- An Asian tion of the Asian Handicap. In that case, the team handicap gives you bet on wins and you win the bet. a team a virtual Another possibility is the full line. In this case, the advantage or team on which you are betting always gets an ad- disadvantage. vantage or a disadvantage in the form of a multiple of 1. We explain this by using an example where the “ Asian Handicap is -1. In case of a 1-1 draw, the score will be 0-1 after application of the Asian Handicap. The home team on which you have bet does not win and consequently you lose the bet. If your team wins with exactly one goal difference, you will get your money back. In case of a 2-1 score, the score after applying the Asian Handicap becomes 1-1. In case of a 3-1 score, the score after apply- ing the Asian Handicap becomes 2-1. In that case you win the bet.
Finally, there is also the quarter line. It is basically a combination of the full line and the half line. Quarter lines therefore always end at 0.25 or 0.75. If you bet on a quarter line, you actually divide your bet over the half line and the full line between the quar- ter line. Suppose you bet on an Asian Handicap of -1.25. Half your bet is on a handicap of -1 and the other half on a handicap of -1.5. So, if your team wins by two or more goals difference, you will win your full bet. However, if your team loses the match or it ends a draw, you lose your full bet. If you win with one goal difference, you will lose the -1.5 handicap and get your money back from the bet on the -1 handicap. That is half of your bet.
The full line and quarter line are only used in sports where the number of goals scored usually remains low. This is the case with football, for example. In sports where the number of points scored is usually high, such as basketball, you will only find the half line as the ‘Asian Handicap’ type.
www.betmanbegins.com 12 European (3-way) Handicap
The European handicap has many similari- ties with the Asian handicap. The difference is that there is no ‘void’. A ‘void’ means that you get your money back. This occurs if there is a tie, after applying the Asian Hand- icap, but not after applying the European Handicap. If there is a tie after the Europe- an Handicap, you lose the bet and you do not get your money back. So, a European handicap of -1 is actually the same as a -1.5 Asian handicap. It may happen that book- makers take a higher profit margin on the European handicap. In this case, the Euro- pean handicap would give you lower odds than the Asian handicap, although the bet is exactly the same. The reason, as we mentioned earlier, is liquidity. More and higher amounts are often wagered on the Asian Handicap, as a result of which bookmakers often have a lower profit margin.
Over/Under markets
If you want to place a bet on the number of goals, corners, sets (and many more) you can bet on ‘over’ (‘more than’) or ‘under’ (‘less than’) a specified number happening in a game. Most bookmakers display this in the form of half lines. For example, if you bet on ‘over’ 2.5 goals you will win if three or more goals are scored. If two or fewer goals are scored, you lose.
www.betmanbegins.com 13 Both teams to score
With the type of betting market ‘both teams to score’ you simply answer a yes/no question. The bet on ‘yes’ wins if both teams score at least one goal. If either team fails to hit the back of the net, you win if you bet on ‘no’.
Goal Scorer “ The betting market where you bet on a certain Be aware of the player to score a goal. In this category it is very im- bookmakers’ rules portant to know what the rules are, when a player regarding voiding you have bet on does not start the match on pitch goalscorer bets. but comes on as a substitute. Some bookmakers will ‘void’ the bet (return your money) if the player “ in question does not start. Other bookmakers will only do this if he has not played the full match. If your bet with a bookmaker does not automatically ‘void’ the bet if the player does not start, we recommend that you only bet as soon as you are sure that the player will start the game.
In addition, it is often possible to bet on who scores the first goal in the match. Most bookmakers will not count their own goals here. If the first goal is an ‘own goal’, you can effectively ignore it, as you would still win the bet, if the player you bet on as scores the second goal of the match.
Outright
With this type of bet, for example, you bet on the top scorer or overall winner of a cer- tain competition. The big disadvantage of this betting market is that it takes a long time before you know whether you have won or lost. As a result, you will have to wait a long time before you can receive any winnings from that bet.
www.betmanbegins.com 14 Transfers
Finally, there is the betting market of transfers. Within that type, the most popular betting option is the club where a particular player will be playing for, on a certain date (i.e. after the end of a transfer window). You can also bet on the next club for many managers.
We would treat these bet types with caution. Transfer rumours are excellent ways of attracting readers’ attention. But there are a lot of unreliable sources. The first question should always be: ‘who benefits if the rumour gets into the media?’. In most cases it is not the club that is buying the player. Media attention ensures that other teams also take an interest. That drives up the price. It is not uncommon for agents to deliberate- ly spread rumours with the aim of obtaining a better contract. It is essential to check your sources very carefully when it comes to the interpretation of transfer rumours.
Did you know...
News sites nu.nl and Het Laatste Nieuws already published an article about the BetmanBegins Community. 2 Beating bookmakers
At a later stage, this e-book will look in more detail at exactly how to find profitable bets as a player. But before we can move on to that, it is important to have mastered another basic principle. With odds, bookmakers make predictions about the chance of a certain event occurring.
In order to be profitable, you must be able to assess these opportunities better than a bookmaker. After all, bookmakers also incorporate a profit margin in their odds. You will have to beat this margin too. An example will bring more clarity. Bookmakers may misjudge the odds by 5%, but they still have a profit margin of 10%. In that case, the bookmaker’s erroneous estimate is not a profitable situation for you as a player.
Even if you find mistakes in which you beat the bookmaker’s profit margin, this does not guarantee long-term profit. You always have to take into account a very annoying and often frustrating factor: coincidence.
www.betmanbegins.com 16 2.1 Example – coin toss
We clarify that factor by means of an example. Imagine someone making you a pro- posal. You pay €1. Then you can flip a coin. If it is ‘heads’, you get €3. In the case of ‘tails’, you lose the euro. Because the chance of ‘heads’ is 50%, this game in theory would be profitable for you. At least, in the long term. In the short term, coincidence (or vari- ance) has a strong influence. Suppose you want to spend a maximum of €100 on this game. You bet €50 each time. There is a twenty-five per cent chance of two ‘tails’ in a row. And if that happens, you lose everything. Even if mathematically the game is profitable in the long term.
2.2 Bankroll management
We can also translate the same principle into sports betting. Being profitable in the long term does not mean that you will also make a profit in the short term. In order to filter out coincidence in the short term, good bankroll management is necessary.
No matter how good you are at detecting mistakes at bookmakers, it’s important to know there will be loss-making periods. This happens to everyone – even the best bet- ters and tippers in the world. You have to absorb those moments by means of careful ‘bankroll management’. A ‘bankroll’ is the amount of money a player is prepared to invest in their sports betting. It doesn’t have to be the amount of money in your book- makers’ account but can also simply be the amount in your bank account or e-wallet, that is set aside for betting.
It is essential to place a percentage of your overall bankroll on each bet. Your stake de- pends on how your bankroll evolves. This maintains a good balance between limiting risks on the one hand and the growth of your bankroll on the other. It is advisable to place between 0.2% and 2% of your bankroll on each bet. As an example, a bankroll
www.betmanbegins.com 17 of €1,000 means that you bet between €2 and €20 per bet. This bet amount is also sometimes expressed in ‘units’, where one unit equals 0.2 percent of your bankroll. We would advise not to bet more than a maximum of ten units of your bankroll.
We are talking about a variation of between 0.2% and 2%. There is a big difference. Whether it is best to move towards 0.2% or 2% of your bankroll depends on two el- ements. Firstly, the extent to which you assume that a bookmaker has made a mis- take. If the odds are completely misjudged, you can bet more than if the bookmakers have made a small mistake. Secondly, the odds are important. If you bet with high odds, you run a higher risk. You have to manage this by betting a lower percentage of your bankroll.
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BetmanBegins never asks its followers for money?
Visit: www.betmanbegins.com 3 Odds change continuously
Bookmakers will continuously evaluate and adjust odds. These changes in the odds can be caused by various factors.
3.1 News
New information will affect the odds. Some examples of news that will change the odds:
• Manager who announces to rest certain players
• Injury to a player
• News of a new penalty taker (influence on the goal scorer market)
• Announcement of a different referee (impact on the number of cards market)
• Publication of financial problems at a club
www.betmanbegins.com 19 3.2 Wise guys
‘Wise guys’ also influence the odds. Wise guys are players whose bookmakers as- sume that they will make a long-term profit and are therefore profitable gamblers. The bookmaker will keep an extra close eye on them. If one of the ‘wise guys’ places a bet, an alarm normally goes off at the bookmaker. It is a sign to the bookmaker that the odds may not have been correctly assessed. Based on a single bet, the bookmak- er can then decide to lower the odds of the bet. Certainly, when several of these ‘wise guys’ are betting on the same bet, the chance of the odds falling are even greater.
3.3 Arbitration
Arbitration options also cause the odds to change. Opportunities for arbitration arise when the odds between different bookmakers are vastly different. This means that you can make a profit no matter what the outcome of the bet is. As an example, we show the odds of a tennis match at two different bookmakers.
Bookmaker A Bookmaker B Tennis player 1 2,10 1,90 Tennis player 2 1,90 2,10
With such odds you will always make a profit by betting an amount at bookmaker A on tennis player 1 and betting the same amount at bookmaker B on tennis player 2. Betting €50 on both, you will always get €105 back. On a total stake of €100 this means a return of 5%.
Players will undoubtedly see and use these arbitrage opportunities. As a result, book- maker A will have a loss if tennis player 1 wins. To limit that risk, players will be moti-
www.betmanbegins.com 20 vated to bet on tennis player 2. Bookmaker A will do this by decreasing the odds on tennis player 1 and increase the odds on tennis player 2. As a result, the possibility of arbitration will disappear.
In addition, it is perfectly possible for a bookmaker to want to limit their risks on a particular bet because a large amount has already been wagered on it. Bookmak- ers who change odds because of risk management, do not always do so because of the arbitrage.
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BetmanBegins regularly does giveaways?
Visit: www.betmanbegins.com 4 Alternative ways to determine odds
Most European bookmakers estimate their odds using mathematical algorithms. Al- though there are other ways. For example, there is a European platform where players can offer bets for other sports bettors and determine the odds themselves. There are also Asian bookmakers. Even though European bookmakers are the most well-known, it is interesting to look at the Asian bookmakers. Because they determine their odds without using algorithms, this can provide useful information for you as a player.
4.1 Pinnacle
The Asian bookmaker, Pinnacle, undoubtedly has the most accurate odds. Why? Be- cause the odds on their site change according to the bets placed. Is anyone betting on team A? Then they simply lower the odds on team A and raise the odds on team B. In this way, players are encouraged to bet on team B. Over time, this creates a balance of what players have bet on and who the market thinks will win.
www.betmanbegins.com 22 Pinnacle’s odds answer the question ‘What does the market think about the bet?’, while European bookmakers’ odds answer the question ‘What does the bookmaker think about the bet’. Of course, the betting patterns of players are also contained in the odds of European bookmakers, but to a lesser extent.
Never place a bet without having compared the odds TIP with Pinnacle.
4.2 Betfair Exchange
Yet another principle to determine odds is used by the ‘Betfair Exchange’. On this European platform, you make a bet with another player. If you win a bet on the Bet- fair Exchange, it is not Betfair but the oth- er player who will pay you. All Betfair does is take a commission on the bet.
At Betfair Exchange you can offer a bet, where you determine the odds yourself. For example, you think that footballer Eden Hazard won’t score in a match. You can in- dicate that you are willing to accept odds of 3.00 for ‘Hazard to score’. This is also called ‘Lay’. You can decide for yourself which bets you are prepared to accept. For example, if
www.betmanbegins.com 23 you are prepared to lose a maximum of €20, the player who wants to take your bet (at odds of 3.00) can bet a maximum of €10. If they win the bet at odds of 3.00, he gets €30, €20 from you and €10 from his own bet. Your bet will only go through if anoth- er player accepts it. Of course, you can also search on the platform for bets offered by others. Accepting a bet is also called ‘Back’.
As with Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange also gives a good indication of what the market thinks of a bet. So that can give you very useful information.
Never place a bet without having compared the odds TIP with the Betfair Exchange.
Did you know...
BetmanBegins shares the bets he places on Telegram and Twitter? 5 Selecting bets
Now that we have the theoretical background and principles behind us, we are ready to move on to perhaps the most interesting topic. And that is: looking for profitable bets. And how do you find them? Unfortunately, there is no obvious answer to that. Nevertheless, we would like to offer our advice and guidance on this. And we do so on the basis of tips and information from our own experience.
5.1 Compare between bookmakers
In order to find profitable bets, you always have to compare between different book- makers. Not doing so is one of the most common mistakes. Anyone who plays with just one or two bookmakers, loses the advantage of being able to take the best odds on a bet. The difference between odds of 2.00 and 2.10 might seem small. But in the long run it is anything but that.
An excellent site to compare odds is ‘oddsportal’. This comparison website offers not only the odds, but also the bookmaker’s profit margin on the betting market. The dis-
www.betmanbegins.com 25 advantage of this site is that the number of betting markets you can compare is rela- tively limited. Two other useful sites are ‘oddschecker’ and ‘bmbets’. They compare a larger number of betting markets.
Never place a bet before you have compared the TIP odds between bookmakers.
5.2 Pay extra attention to odds that are just online
Earlier in the e-book we looked at how bookmakers are increasingly able to set their odds by analysing wise guys, looking at other bookmakers who publish odds and so on. But if the odds have only just been priced up and made available online (‘early odds’), the bookmakers do not yet have this extra information. This is the moment at which bookmakers are most vulnerable. The bookmakers themselves are also aware that their odds are not always accurate in this early period.
Example: We tipped our followers that Bournemouth would win a Premier League game against Manchester City at odds 21.50. As Manchester City was due to play the FA Cup three days later, we were certain that Manchester City would field a team of reserve players. When the bet came online and the odds were available, we imme- diately bet on Bournemouth. At Pinnacle, the odds eventually dropped to 14.53. Al- though Manchester City won, it was a profitable tip in the long run.
When the odds are just online, you have a better TIP chance of finding a profitable situation.
www.betmanbegins.com 26 5.3 Focus on extreme conditions
As has already been said, odds are de- termined by algorithms. These are enor- mously complex statistical models that take into account a great deal of historical data. They are therefore very accurate. But that dependence on historical data is also their greatest weakness. What if the mo- tivation of a team is completely different? What if a team gets two red cards during the match? What if a manager starts with a completely different team than usual? In such situations, algorithms can some- times fail to accurately determine the odds. The odds compiler, an employee of a bookmaker, will make manual adjustments. But bookmakers can be very vulnera- ble when this happens. An odds compiler is much easier to beat, if they have little help from their usual algorithms.
Example:
We gave the tip that Jan Paul van Hecke would score a goal in Feyenoord - NAC Breda at odds 18.00. As Van Hecke had not often scored as a defender, we got very high odds for a goal. But that chance was there, as Van Hecke is a designat- ed penalty taker. And algorithms do not take that into account. NAC did not get a penalty in the end, but van Hecke did score from a standard situation.
Bookmakers make more errors in the odds under TIP extreme conditions.
www.betmanbegins.com 27 5.4 Don’t rely too much on statistics
Because algorithms are very strong in analysing historical data, it is difficult to beat bookmakers at their own strengths. As a human being, it is almost impossible to in- terpret statistics better than algorithms.
Do you sometimes bet on ‘over 2.5 goals’ because at least three goals were scored in the previous encounters between these teams? Then that might not be a good idea! After all, the bookies have that information too. They also take a lot of other things into account. And don’t forget, they have a profit margin that you also have to beat in order to be profitable.
Do you want to look up some statistics? The below list of sites will help:
• Whoscored: most extensive in terms of statistics for shots (on goal), fouls, who takes corners and free kicks, which player gives a lot of crosses, offsides etc.
• Soccerway: clear website where you can easily see how many goals and cards players have had in the past.
• Transfermarkt: value of players is an objective indication of how good players are. It also gives a clear overview of the statistics per player and referee per season.
• Totalcorner: everything you want to know about corners of certain teams.
• Websites of official organisations: Bundesliga, UEFA, Premier League and many more.
Be careful when betting purely on statistics. After all, TIP these are often already included in the odds.
www.betmanbegins.com 28 5.5 Leave emotions behind
The greatest enemy of sports betting is emotion. These often lead to impulsive bank- roll management decisions. Betting with your heart can have a hugely negative im- pact on your long-term results. Rationality and limiting yourself to the facts are cru- cial. Does that mean that you can never bet on your favourite team? No, of course it doesn’t. Because often you know things about your team that bookmakers haven’t noticed. Make sure your bets are based on that knowledge and not on hope.
TIP Base your bets on analysis, knowledge and facts.
5.6 Keep an eye on social media
You can outsmart the bookies by getting information before they do. Social media is the number one tool for this. After all, nowadays many news sites get their informa- tion from social media. If you keep a direct eye on the social media channels of teams and athletes, you can often get information before news sites have it. This may involve injuries to players, team formations, and so on.
Example:
We gave the tip that Jong Emmen would win against Jong Excelsior at odds 1.80. The teams in the reserve competition often play in varying compositions. The teams in the reserve league often play in varying line ups. Players from the first team sometimes participate, although it is also possible that players from youth teams will start. By keeping an eye on social media, you can estimate which play-
www.betmanbegins.com 29 ers a certain team will play with. In the home matches of Jong Emmen, players from the first team are frequently included in the starting XI. That is why we gave this tip. After the line-up was known, the odds dropped to 1.50. Jong Em- men won the match.
Keep an eye on the social media channels of teams TIP and athletes. This way you can respond more quickly to new information than bookmakers.
5.7 Beware of multiple bets
With multiple bets you have to be careful. Placing multiples or ‘accas’ is one of the most common errors. No player who bets regularly on multiples is profitable. The explana- tion? Quite simple: a bookmaker applies a profit margin to each bet. If you combine three bets, you will also pay three times the profit margin.
Even if you think you have found three bets that you are convinced will be profitable in the long term, there is no reason to combine them into a single bet. After all, a multiple bet is always placed with one bookmaker. There is very little chance that the bookmaker will have the highest odds for all three bets. If you place a multiple, you can no longer com- pare odds between bookmakers.
www.betmanbegins.com 30 Should one bookmaker happen to have the highest odds with the three bets, even then it is not wise to combine the three. The return on the three bets remains the same in the long term whether you take them as a single or multiple bet. The odds will be higher on a multiple bet and therefore the risk is higher. So, you actually take more risk for the same return in the long term. This is not a good choice.
You may wonder whether it is ever wise to combine bets. In fact, it is only in highly ex- ceptional circumstances. A first argument is bonuses. Some bonuses will only be valid for multiple bets, e.g. on certain profit boost offers. If the benefit of the bonus is great- er than the loss of the bet, it is advisable to combine the bets.
A second argument is correlation. This means that the bets in your combination are interdependent. An example of this is a player who scores in a certain match and the player who becomes top scorer in the league. If he scores in the match, he is obviously more likely to become a top scorer. So there is a correlation. In practice, bookmakers will not allow this type of combination, although bookmakers sometimes make a mistake.
Example:
At the last matchday of the Jupiler Pro League we tipped ‘win Anderlecht & no draw in Genk vs Mechelen’. There was a correlation between both bets in the mul- tiple. If Anderlecht won, both Genk and Mechelen would no longer have a chance of reaching the Play Off, if they played out a draw. As a result, both teams would therefore play very offensively, to go for the win. So, there was some correlation between Anderlecht’s win and the chance of a draw in the match between Genk and Mechelen.
www.betmanbegins.com 31 Never place a multiple bet if there is no bonus TIP attached or correlation between the bets.
5.8 Specialise in less popular competitions
Like other companies, bookmakers aim to make a profit. They align their investments to the bigger competitions. In major leagues such as the Serie A, the Premier League and the Bundesliga, bookmakers run a greater risk. If they make a mistake in the odds, many players will bet on that bet. That can quickly lead to major losses. It should therefore come as no surprise that they spend a lot of money and time making these top tier odds as accurate as possible. In addition, there is also a lot more information available about the top leagues, which makes it easier to make an accurate estimate of the odds.
Logically, bookmakers run a lower risk in smaller competitions such as the second division, women’s football, reserve com- petitions, and so on. The financial conse- quences will be less severe if bookmakers make a mistake. As a result, they will spend less time and money accurately estimat- ing those odds. This means as a player, you have a better chance of beating the book- makers in these smaller competitions.
It is impossible to be stronger than the bookies in every area. But as a player you
www.betmanbegins.com 32 have the advantage that bookies have to offer a huge range of odds, but you are not obliged to place bets. As a player it is wise to specialise in a certain sport or compe- tition. This focus enables you to be stronger than the bookies in your field. Not sure what to focus on? Then choose a less popular sport or competition. This makes it easier to beat the bookmakers.
It’s easier to beat bookmakers at less popular TIP competitions.
5.9 Don’t limit yourself to low or high odds
Are you best betting on low or high odds? One thing is certain: you do not have that luxury of choice. It is difficult to beat bookmakers anyway. If you restrict yourself to high or low odds, it becomes even more difficult.
In this question, some argue that this choice is necessary in order to manage the risk. It is true that you run a higher risk with high odds. But it is better to simply adjust your stake amount, based on the risk. This way you can manage the risk without limiting yourself in terms of odds.
TIP Don’t restrict yourself to the odds you bet on.
www.betmanbegins.com 33 5.10 Don’t limit yourself to a favourite or underdog
In addition to the question of whether it is best to bet on low or high odds, players of- ten consider whether it is best to choose the favourite or the underdog. As with the previous question, it is not wise to limit yourself only to favourites or only underdogs. Either can potentially beat the bookies.
However, there are a number of notable things to consider if you want to bet on favour- ites or rather underdogs. Bookmakers often try to price favourites favourably for the player or have a lower profit margin on the favourite compared to the one on the un- derdog. Since many recreational players like to bet on favourites, they like to lure them in by offering relatively high odds on these bets. For bookmakers it is still interesting to offer this. After all, recreational players often bet on multiples, so the final profit mar- gin for bookmakers will still be considerable. If you were to bet ‘blindly’, it would remain more profitable in the long run to bet on favourites rather than underdogs.
Although there are also reasons to bet on the underdog. Players can often achieve a much higher return. To do this they have to choose the right bets. For example, if a bookmaker offers odds of 10.00 for the underdog while the odds should actually be 5.00. In the long term, you will make a 100% return on this bet. If a bookmaker offers odds of 1.50 on the favourite, when they should actually be 1.25, your return will only be 20%. Bookmakers therefore run a great deal of risk when they offer odds on under- dogs. The profit margin on underdogs will therefore be higher than on the favourites.
Do not restrict yourself to betting on favourites and TIP underdogs.
www.betmanbegins.com 34 5.11 Make use of bonuses
A very simple way to grow your bankroll are bonuses and promotions. Popular bo- nuses are boosted odds: bookmakers will increase the odds on a particular bet from 5.00 to 6.00, for example. However, just because a company offers a boosted price, it doesn’t mean you should always take it. Bookmakers will often increase the odds on a betting market on which they have a large profit margin. If a bookmaker increases the odds by 10% but takes a 20% profit margin, it is not wise to bet.
Always compare the odds with other bookmakers. Only bet if they are much higher than the market price. The greater the profit margin on that bet, the higher the boost on the odds should be compared to the market price.
In the case of profit boosts, you can choose the bet that you can increase by a certain percentage. That is, of course, more interesting. Then it is best to choose a bet where the profit margin of the bookmaker is low and where the odds are already high, com- pared to other bookmakers.
Compare boosted odds with other bookmakers and TIP consider the profit margin.
5.12 Avoid unethical techniques
Ways to make easy money from sports betting, you have undoubtedly heard of them. But if it is too good to be true, it usually is. If you want to be successful in the long term, you have to work hard in the first place. Here we are dealing with two unethical gambling techniques. It is best to keep as far away from them as possible.
www.betmanbegins.com 35 Match fixing (match fixing)
Match fixing is an unethical practise whereby the outcome of a match is manipulated with the aim of allowing gamblers to make a profit. Unfortunately, this still occurs in the sports world. If that is not bad enough, there are some who want to abuse it via social media. Some claim to know about sporting events where the results are known before the match. Their aim is to sell those so-called ‘tips’. We strongly advise you not to buy these tips. In almost all cases, the information on manipulated matches is in- correct. Making a profit with these so-called tips is therefore an illusion.
TIP Report and block people who sell match fixing tips.
Courtside trading
Courtside trading means that players will be placing bets after the outcome is already known. This risky technique is particularly well known in tennis. Bookmakers can only register points when the referee pushes a button. The time between the end of the point and the moment the referee presses the button is the period in which the ‘court- side traders’ will strike. This time can be sufficient to place bets. Usually the courtside traders are in direct contact with someone placing bets.
That sounds good, but do not be under any illusions. Bookmakers are, of course, fa- miliar with this technique and have the necessary strategies to prevent or at least lim- it this behaviour. In addition, the accounts of these unethical gamblers will soon be banned so that they can no longer bet.
www.betmanbegins.com 36 5.13 Be selective when following tippers
In the world of sports betting, there are many people who claim to be able to track down mistakes at bookmakers. Some share them for free, others for a fee. It is very difficult to judge which tips are worth following (and therefore profitable).We would suggest looking at the following criteria, if you want to determine whether a tipper is good:
1. Single or multiple: Reliable tippers usually tip single bets. Avoid tippers who reg- ularly tip multiple bets.
2. Transparency: Good tippers will show their results in a clear way.
3. Sufficient data: Make sure you have enough data on the results of a tipper before you follow it.
4. Evolution of odds: With good tippers, the odds just before the start of the event (closing odds) will often be lower than the tipped odds.
5. Compare odds: The best tippers compare odds and tip on different bookmakers.
6. Logic and reasoning: Good tippers can present a solid argumentation.
7. Less popular bets: The tipper is more likely to be profitable if they focus on less popular matches or betting markets.
TIP Be very picky about which tippers you follow.
www.betmanbegins.com 37 5.14 Conclusion: what should I do next?
Chapter 5 looked at various themes. But how exactly do you proceed? Every bet is based on certain facts and on a comparison between odds. The two ways of finding profitable bets are based either on facts or on odds.
Using facts
So, on the one hand, you can find prof- itable bets by basing your decisions on the facts. Look for matches where you know there are extreme circumstances. It might be the case that you happen to read something, which could lead to an unusual situation. An example is a team that plays several friendly matches a day, a team that prioritises a certain league, reserve teams that have many players from the first team and so on.
You have to look up all possible informa- tion about these matches. One way of doing this is by using social media. In this case, it is crucial to regularly check whether odds are already available (early odds). These odds are mainly based on algorithms. They are easier to beat in situations with extreme conditions. If the odds are mis- judged, other players (e.g. wise guys) will also bet on them, and the odds will soon fall. It is therefore important to move quickly once odds are available online.
www.betmanbegins.com 38 Looking at odds
In the previous case, we looked for news and then went to compare the odds. Looking at odds as a starting point, is the other way around. Here we first compare the odds between bookmakers via comparison sites. If we notice that one or more bookmakers make an es- timate that is very different from the rest of the market, it is worth further investigation.
The differences will usually occur at less popular matches and betting markets. Think for example of a card for a player, an assist or goal of a player, a penalty in the match. Based on the results of further research, you should decide whether betting on the bookie with the highest odds is advisable.
Did you know...
BetmanBegins puts the results of the tips on its website?
www.betmanbegins.com 39 6 How do you measure results?
We have already learned how to find bets that are profitable in the long term. In the next section, we will learn how to analyse our results.
6.1 Win Rate
The ‘win rate’ is the percentage of the total number of bets you win. If you place 100 bets and you win 60 of them, your win rate is 60%. The win rate is often used as a determining factor to demonstrate the success of a person’s results. But that is often unfair! In practice, it is impossible to evaluate betting results correctly just by looking at a tippers win rate.
After all, the win rate is a worthless statistic without considering the odds taken. For ex- ample, if you always bet at odds of 1.2, an 80% win rate is nothing more than a way of say- ing that you lose €4 for every €100 you bet.
The win rate is not a reliable statistic to measure your TIP results.
www.betmanbegins.com 40 6.2 Average odds It is clear that the win rate is not a reliable statistic to measure your results. But what if someone can provide you with a win rate of 80% with average odds of 2.19? Is that not clear proof that you are profitable? No, it is not! The average odds value gives no indication of the variance of these odds.
Suppose there are 99 bets placed with odds of 1.2 and one bet with odds of 100. Then the average odds of those 100 bets are 2.19. The win rate is again 80%. Unless you win the bet with odds of 100, there will still be a loss of €4 for every €100 wagered. This is an extreme example. However, it is now clear that even a win rate in combination with average odds is not enough to assess results.
Even average odds and win rate do not give you a TIP reliable picture.
6.3 Return
The win rate and average odds therefore do not give a clear indication of your re- sults. So what does? The best indicator is your return on investment (ROI). It com- pares your total spend (bet amount) with the total profit or loss. If you have bet €1,000 over a month and you have made a profit of €50 on those bets, your return will be +5%. If you lose €70, it will be -7%. That statistic is representative, independ- ent of the odds you have bet on. So always judge a tipper by their previous returns rather than other statistics.
Some tippers will only suggest odds at odds of between 1.50 and 2.00. In doing so, they impose a major constraint on themselves, with the aim of achieving the high-
www.betmanbegins.com 41 est possible win rate. The aim is to show followers that they are successful and are able to present many winning tips.
In reality, this restriction has a negative impact on returns. They can only bet on a limited number of bets. This makes it much more difficult to beat the bookmakers. Tips at high odds will cause the win rate to go down, although it can have a positive effect on returns.
Return on investment is the best variable to measure TIP your results.
6.4 Previous data
In itself, measuring these results is quite simple. However, their interpretation is not so easy. This is because you often lack enough data to have a reliable picture of your re- sults. Short-term profits or losses are therefore no guarantee at all for long-term results.
How many bets are needed to form a reliable picture of a person’s results depends mainly on the odds of the bets. You need more bets to have a reliable picture if you are betting mainly on high odds. After all, the variance of the results is higher. If you bet on odds of 2.00, 100 bets may be sufficient. However, that will not suffice if you usually bet on odds of 10.00.
You need to have sufficient data before you can draw TIP conclusions from your results.
www.betmanbegins.com 42 6.5 Results-oriented
In order to measure your results, you need a lot of data. That is why it is important not to think too much about specific results. Think back to the example head or tails. You can bet €1 and get €1.80 if it is ‘tails’. It is not important whether you win or lose, mak- ing this bet will never be a good idea. In the long run you will make a loss. This also applies in the other direction. Suppose you can pay €1 and get €3 back if it is ‘heads’. Even if you lose the bet, it was wise to make this bet. A winning bet does not always equal a good bet. A losing bet is not necessarily a bad bet either.
Do not be too result-oriented, certainly not in the TIP short term.
6.6 Closing Odds
You can also measure your results based on the ‘closing odds’. These are odds that are available just before the match starts. These odds are a very accurate representation of what the odds actually should have been. A study compared Pinnacle’s closing odds for 397,935 bets with the final result of the match. There was a very high similar- ity (R2 = 99.7% - which means an accuracy of 99.7%) between the expected result and final result.
With that in mind, the closing odds are an excellent tool for assessing whether the bets you place are profitable in the long term. If you can always bet on odds that are higher than Pinnacle’s closing odds, you will most likely be profitable in the long term. Don’t forget to compare your bets to the closing odds without Pinnacle’s.
www.betmanbegins.com 43 You can quickly and easily form a reliable picture about the quality of your bets and odds with this technique. If you are consistently taking better prices than Pinnacle, it’s very likely you will be profitable.
Compare the odds of your bet with the Pinnacle TIP closing odds (without profit margin).
Did you know...
BetmanBegins carefully selects extra tippers to provide the community with more tips?
www.betmanbegins.com 44 7 Final conclusions
There’s a lot to digest, in our Betting Bible! But all of it is crucial information. To summarise, here are our ten most important tips:
1. Place single bets
2. Only stake between 0.2% and 2% of your bankroll with each bet
3. Compare odds between bookmakers – always consult Pinnacle
4. Bet with multiple bookmakers, to always take the best odds
5. You can beat bookmakers more easily with unusual situations
6. Never bet based on emotion
7. It’s easier to beat bookmakers on less popular competitions or betting markets
8. Win rate is not a reliable statistic
9 . The ‘closing odds’ can tell you the quality of a bet
10. Do not restrict yourself with the odds you bet on
We are always happy to answer any of your questions. Feel free to contact us through Instagram, Twitter or Telegram if you have any questions!
www.betmanbegins.com 45 8. Useful websites
Throughout the BetmanBegins Betting Bible we have listed a number of useful web- sites. Please find the direct links below.
BetmanBegins community Statistics
Website Whoscored
Instagram Soccerway
Telegram Transfermarket
Twitter Totalcorner
BetmanBegins in the media: Bookmakers accurate odds
‘Het Laatste Nieuws’ Betfair Exchange
nu.nl Pinnacle
Compare Odds
Oddsportal
Oddschecker
Bmbets
www.betmanbegins.com 46