Introduction Ten Euros on Liverpool to win - it sounds like something you’d hear in a bustling vil- lage pub. For many sports fans, betting is a popular way to make a match even more exciting than it already is. But for BetmanBegins it’s more, much more. The successful sports gambler doesn’t make wild predictions: he constantly looks for situations where bookmakers have made a mistake. These are bets where he’s convinced that the bookmaker has misjudged the odds or the odds of winning. That is the only thing he bets on. And with this approach the gambler will be profitable in the long term. Something that only 2% of players can say. Are you interested in joining that 2%? Then with this sports betting guide you’ll have all the cards in your hands. What is an ‘Asian Handicap’? How do I find the ‘best bet’? The BetmanBegins Betting Bible offers not only theoretical background knowledge but also unique, practical tips from the expert BetmanBegins. And these are worth their weight in gold for those who want to gamble profitably. There’s advice for everyone; whether you have never placed a bet in your life or are an experienced player. www.betmanbegins.com 2 Who is BetmanBegins? BetmanBegins is a successful gambler in the sports betting market. As a student he bet money on a game of poker for the first time. Bitten by sports and numbers, he ended up at an online sports betting bookmaker in London in 2015, after graduating from university. There he learned the tricks of the trade. But even after his working hours, he was still working trying to find new ways to outwit the bookmakers. In 2016 BetmanBegins took the plunge. He entered the wonderful world of sports betting as a player. In 2019, he said goodbye to the London bookmaker in order to de- vote himself full-time to his passion. In the meantime, BetmanBegins has built up capital of €1 million through sports bet- ting. A lucrative sum, but far from being satisfied with that, he is still searching the internet for the mistakes and errors made by bookmakers. And now he shares his un- missable tips & tricks with the outside world, in the form of a Betting Bible. www.betmanbegins.com 3 A manual in seven parts The e-book is divided into seven different chapters. The first chapter deals with the basic principles of sports betting. It also discusses the most popular betting markets. Do you already have betting experience? Then perhaps you can start right away with the second chapter. This section explains how to beat bookmakers. Since bankroll management is crucial in this respect, this will certainly be discussed here. The third chapter discusses why odds are constantly changing. It is essential to compare the odds for a match with different bookmakers in order to always be able to bet on the most advantageous option. Chapter 4 contains practical tips on how best to do this. Chapter 5 discusses exactly how to find profitable bets. In addition, measuring results is important. Chapter 6 is about that. Finally, all the information and tips are summa- rised in chapter 7. www.betmanbegins.com 4 Table of contents Introduction 2 5.3 Focus on extreme conditions 27 Who is BetmanBegins? 3 5.4 Don’t rely too much on statistics 28 A manual in seven parts 4 5.5 Leave emotions behind 29 1 General principles 6 5.6 Keep an eye on social media 29 1.1 What is a bookmaker? 6 5.7 Beware of multiple bets 30 1.2 What are odds? 7 5.8 Specialise in less popular 1.3 How do bookmakers make a profit? 7 competitions 32 1.4 Pre-match and live 9 5.9 Don’t limit yourself to low 1.5 Single and multiple bets 10 or high odds 33 1.6 Betting markets 11 5.10 Don’t limit yourself to a favourite 2 Beating bookmakers 16 or underdog 34 2.1 Example – coin toss 17 5.11 Make use of bonuses 35 2.2 Bankroll management 17 5.12 Avoid unethical techniques 35 3 Odds change continuously 19 5.13 Be selective when following tippers 37 3.1 News 19 5.14 Conclusion: what should I do next? 38 3.2 Wise guys 20 6 How do you measure results? 40 3.3 Arbitration 20 6.1 Win Rate 40 4 Alternative ways to determine odds 22 6.2 Average odds 41 4.1 Pinnacle 22 6.3 Return 41 4.2 Betfair Exchange 23 6.4 Previous data 42 5 Selecting bets 25 6.5 Results-oriented 43 5.1 Compare between bookmakers 25 6.6 Closing Odds 43 5.2 Pay extra attention to odds that 7 Final conclusions 45 are just online 26 8 Useful websites 46 Click on the title to jump to the specific page www.betmanbegins.com 5 1. General principles We start from the beginning. In this chapter you will become acquainted with the basic principles of sports betting. With a sport bet you make a prediction and you bet money on that prediction happening. If it is correct, you get your stake back plus that amount multiplied by your odds. If your prediction is wrong, you lose the stake. Sounds simple? It is. But the strategies to make this concept profitable are not. 1.1 What is a bookmaker? A bookmaker or ‘bookie’ is a company that makes “ betting on sports events possible. Bookmakers can For each bet of- therefore accept bets on the outcome of an event fered, a book- or an event during the match. Most bookmakers maker gives offer various competitions and types of bets (‘bet- ‘odds’. ting markets’) to gamble on. For each bet offered, a bookmaker gives ‘odds’. “ www.betmanbegins.com 6 1.2 What are odds? Odds are numbers that bookmakers use to show the chance that a certain event will occur. For example, if you win a bet with odds of 3.00, the bookmaker will pay you €30 if you bet €10. In that case, you make a profit of €20. This is called the decimal odds display. In the United Kingdom and Australia, odds are displayed as a fraction, in the United States they are displayed in an American odds ratio. By dividing the number 1 by the odds, you calculate the probability. Odds of 2.00 indi- cate that, according to the bookies, the probability of a certain event is 1/2.00 or 50%. This probability is mainly determined by algorithms, but sometimes manual adjust- ments are made. You will only be profitable in the long term if the real TIP chance of a certain event occurring is higher than the odds indicate. 1.3 How do bookmakers make a profit? Bookmakers set a profit margin within the odds. Suppose bookies think that both players in a tennis match have a 50% chance of winning the match. That should cor- respond to both players having odds of 2.00. And yet bookies will not offer you odds of 2.00, but 1.90, for example. If you bet €50 on both players, you will get €95 back, no matter who wins the tennis match. Since the bet is €100, the payback is 95%. The profit margin of the bookmaker is 5%. www.betmanbegins.com 7 “ The profit margins used may vary considerably. Firstly, there is a difference per bookmaker. The Liquidity is a large bookies often have a lower profit margin. The measure of how profit margin will also differ per match and even much money is per type of bet. But what factors actually influence wagered on a a bookmaker’s profit margin? The most important betting market. one is liquidity. That is a measure of how much mon- ey is wagered on a betting market. In other words, “ it is the popularity of the betting market. When it comes to betting on the winner of a match in the Champions League, bookmakers are often satisfied with a profit margin of 3%. After all, a great deal of money is wagered on this type of bet. Players’ betting patterns therefore help bookmakers to better as- sess odds. Furthermore, a lot of information is publicly available at popular matches. As a result, bookmakers are able to make an accurate estimate of odds. Even with a low profit margin, they will still make a profit. On less popular bets, however, the profit margin of bookmakers can quickly reach ten, fifteen or even twenty per cent. This is the case, for example, with betting mar- kets such as goal scorer or correct score. Bookmakers will also have a higher profit margin in lesser-known matches. In the Premier League, for example, the profit margin for bookmakers is very low, but it will be many times higher in, let’s say, the Belarusian reserve league. Although betting on such leagues can have a great deal of potential. The Betting Bible will come back to that later. The bigger the bookmaker’s profit margin, the TIP bigger the bookmaker’s mistake must be, in order to make betting profitable in the long term. www.betmanbegins.com 8 1.4 Pre-match and live Bookmakers offer both pre-match and live betting markets. Pre-match means that you place the bet before the match starts. Live bets are placed while the match is in progress. Sometimes bookmakers will no longer offer certain bets. This is typically the case when the match is in progress (live).