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The Sahel JANUARY 2016 The Sahel JANUARY 2016 Photo: OCHA/Brandau CONVERGING CHALLENGES, COMPOUNDING RISKS A REGION UNDER HIGH PRESSURE In the Sahel, extreme poverty, fast- relies on agriculture for survival. prospects elsewhere, fueling the global growing populations, climate change, Environmental shocks, insecurity, migration crisis. recurrent food and nutrition crises, chronic hunger and malnutrition have Faced with serious threats, armed conflicts and insecurity a dangerously symbiotic relationship Governments risk channeling more are building up to a perfect storm in the Sahel. A spike in armed conflict resources to address security challenges threatening the lives of communities and violence worsens the Sahel’s at the expense of social development. already living on the brink of crisis. chronic hardship and has led to new Past gains and future development peaks in displacement across the The region is one of the world’s prospects are at stake. If these region. Lack of opportunities and climate change hotspots. Increasingly challenges remain unaddressed, the unemployment, deteriorating security, unpredictable weather patterns, more prospects for the region are dire, and economic and social inequality expose frequent droughts and floods and land the most vulnerable communities will youths to risks of radicalization and degradation threaten the livelihoods suffer the most. recruitment. Many seek brighter of a population in which the majority million in in in in people150 live in the Sahel younger3 than 344 years old relying4 on agriculture5 are is 1food insecure6 is living1 in areas4 affected region* particularly vulnerable to by conflict climate change In this document, the Sahel comprises of Burkina Faso, Chad, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, northern Cameroon and Nigeria, and Senegal 2 HOTSPOT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION HITS THE MOST VULNERABLE FIRST Although their region has contributed before they are hit again. Many have to the least to global carbon emissions, UNCERTAINTY IS THE NEW adopt survival strategies, such as selling Sahelians are paying a steep price for livestock, cutting down on meals or the consequences of human-induced NORM taking children out of school, which climate change. Experts predict that The impact of climate change is already is making them more vulnerable over West Africa and the Sahel are becoming being felt. Over the past decades, time. Today, vulnerability is such that a “hotspot” of climate change, with growing climate fluctuations and more millions of households require only a unprecedented climates not seen in the frequent shocks have pushed Sahelians relatively small shock to fall into crisis. rest of the world. Analysing exposure on the brink of humanitarian disasters. to extreme events, vulnerabilities and Over the past two decades, the start of adaptive capacity, experts identify the rainy season has become erratic, GROWING NEEDS, Chad, Niger and Nigeria amongst annual precipitation amounts variable, countries at “extreme climate risk”. All with longer drought periods. Extreme SHRINKING RESOURCES weather events such as floods are more other Sahel countries will be facing a The population of the Sahel grows frequent and severe. The regional “high risk”. Considering the fragility at a runaway rate of an average 3.5 climate trends observed over the last of its economies, reliance on natural per cent every year, doubling every 40 years show that overall average resources, fast population growth and three decades. Experts fear that temperatures have risen. The most weak governance, the repeated exposure available food resources will not recent severe drought, in 2012, was to extreme climate risks further be sufficient to sustain a growing the third to hit the Sahel in less than a deteriorating the region’s existing population. Projections estimate that decade. With climate shocks coming vulnerabilities. twice more cereals will need to be at a higher rate, vulnerable households available to sustain the food needs are increasingly less able to cope with of the population by 2050. Water for crises and struggle to recover in time the region’s agriculture –which 98 percent is rainfed- is getting scarcer. A more unpredictable weather: Projections show that while average rainfall will remain fairly constant, current climate variability will be exacerbated, with alternating episodes of extreme droughts and rains. © “A global perspective on African climate” in Climatic Change 300 million 3°C - 6°C 7 20% people expected to live in the Projected increase in droughts in Niger over the last expected average loss of Sahel by 2045. temperatures in the Sahel by 23 years production for main cereals the end of the 21st century crops by 2050 (IPPC report V) 3 Water availability per inhabitant has livestock deaths, collapsed fisheries, depend on agriculture and farming for dropped by over 40 per cent in the past soil salinity, and increasing poverty their livelihoods. Experts predict that 20 years due to population growth and throughout the region. Communities a temperature increase of 1,2 to 1,9 decreasing resources. that were previously living on the shores degree Celsius (°C) - which is below of the lake have seen their livelihoods projections for the region - will be destroyed. Many head to neighbouring enough to increase by 95 per cent the A LAKE DISAPPEARS countries or further afield in search of number of malnourished people in opportunities that the Lake Chad region West Africa by 2050. Some studies have The shrinking of Lake Chad is one can no longer provide. shown that a 3 per cent temperature of the most striking examples of increase will lead to a 15 to 25 per environmental degradation in the cent decrease of food production. Sahel region. Previously straddling the EXACERBATING EXISTING According to experts, if the trends do borders of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and not change, Africa will be able to meet Nigeria, over the last fifty years the lake VULNERABILITIES only 13 per cent of its food needs by has shrunk to a small proportion of its If not addressed, climate change 2050. Increased temperatures, rainfall original size. The dramatic reduction of effects across the region will continue and flooding also risk to increase the its surface, equally attributed to shifting to threaten the food security, health incidence of water-borne diseases such climatic patterns with less rainfall and nutritional status of millions, as cholera. and to high demands for agricultural particularly the vast majority who water, has contributed to crop failures, “When the rains start, hope returns. But it doesn't rain as it used to. The last season hit us really hard. The rains million in simply stopped. All is gone people6 face severe food children1 under five5 year is again.” insecurity malnourished Musa Sahel, Burkina Faso 4 CONFLICTS, CRIME AND CONTRABAND SECURITY CHALLENGES THREATEN THE REGIONAL STABILITY Increasing violence, conflict and patterns in the Lake Chad region. One insecurity over the past two years have STRETCHED RESOURCES in every five people in Diffa was not driven millions of people from their Large-scale displacement has there some months ago and has now homes across the Sahel and devastated exacerbated an already fragile fled from the raging violence. The livelihoods. humanitarian situation. Both the provincial capital has become a safe displaced and their hosts are at ever haven for many. But its capacity to cope greater risk. Around the Lake Chad with the arrival is stretched to the limits. POPULATION Basin in particular, food insecurity has Humanitarian indicators were already dramatically spiked. Acute malnutrition in the red zone prior to recent waves of DISPLACEMENT is also on the rise, surpassing the displacement. Almost three quarters of Throughout the region, as many emergency threshold in many areas. Diffa’s population were food insecure. as 4.5 million people now live in Essential services, health facilities and One health clinic provided services for displacement. This is almost three schools have been decimated. Violence 12,000 people. These meagre resources times more than in 2012. Over a short and border closures prevent farmers are now shared with another 150,000 of period of time, turmoil in Libya, from accessing their lands and impede their exhausted and traumatized fellow profound instability in northern Mali, crucial trade and transhumance routes, human beings. and the escalation of violence by Boko all undermining the livelihoods of Haram have had a devastating impact. communities that are still recovering Increasingly interlinked, they are deeply from a decade of periodic droughts. CROSSROAD FOR affecting thousands of communities and The story of Diffa –the poorest region COMMERCE AND CRIME families that already counted among the of the poorest country in the world- world’s poorest. tells, in a nutshell, that of displacements Wedged between sub-Sahara and North Africa, the Sahel is a vast thoroughfare across the continent that also connects to Europe and the Middle DISPLACEMENTS TREND IN THE SAHEL (2012 - 2015) East. Extensive, impoverished and sparsely populated in vast areas, it has increasingly been exploited by criminal and trafficking networks. Ancestral Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Refugees trade and migration routes between the and Returnees Sahel and Sahara communities are now often being used for smuggling drugs, migrants or illicit products filling the space left by conflict, weak governance and lack of cross-border cooperation. Criminal activities come
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