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Home , Lake Chad, Sahel

The JANUARY 2016

Photo: OCHA/Brandau

CONVERGING CHALLENGES, COMPOUNDING RISKS A UNDER HIGH PRESSURE

In the Sahel, extreme poverty, fast- relies on for survival. prospects elsewhere, fueling the global growing populations, , Environmental shocks, insecurity, migration crisis. recurrent food and nutrition crises, chronic and have Faced with serious threats, armed conflicts and insecurity a dangerously symbiotic relationship Governments risk channeling more are building up to a perfect storm in the Sahel. A spike in armed conflict resources to address security challenges threatening the lives of communities and violence worsens the Sahel’s at the expense of social development. already living on the brink of crisis. chronic hardship and has led to new Past gains and future development peaks in displacement across the The region is one of the world’s prospects are at stake. If these region. Lack of opportunities and climate change hotspots. Increasingly challenges remain unaddressed, the unemployment, deteriorating security, unpredictable weather patterns, more prospects for the region are dire, and economic and social inequality expose frequent and floods and land the most vulnerable communities will youths to risks of radicalization and degradation threaten the livelihoods suffer the most. recruitment. Many seek brighter of a population in which the majority

million in in in in people150 live in the Sahel younger3 than 344 years old relying4 on agriculture5 are is 1food insecure6 is living1 in areas4 affected region* particularly vulnerable to by conflict climate change In this document, the Sahel comprises of , , , , , , northern and , and 2

HOTSPOT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION HITS THE MOST VULNERABLE FIRST

Although their region has contributed before they are hit again. Many have to the least to global carbon emissions, UNCERTAINTY IS THE NEW adopt survival strategies, such as selling Sahelians are paying a steep price for livestock, cutting down on meals or the consequences of -induced NORM taking children out of school, which climate change. Experts predict that The impact of climate change is already is making them more vulnerable over West and the Sahel are becoming being felt. Over the past decades, time. Today, vulnerability is such that a “hotspot” of climate change, with growing climate fluctuations and more millions of households require only a unprecedented climates not seen in the frequent shocks have pushed Sahelians relatively small shock to fall into crisis. rest of the world. Analysing exposure on the brink of humanitarian disasters. to extreme events, vulnerabilities and Over the past two decades, the start of adaptive capacity, experts identify the rainy season has become erratic, GROWING NEEDS, Chad, Niger and Nigeria amongst annual precipitation amounts variable, countries at “extreme climate risk”. All with longer periods. Extreme SHRINKING RESOURCES weather events such as floods are more other Sahel countries will be facing a The population of the Sahel grows frequent and severe. The regional “high risk”. Considering the fragility at a runaway rate of an average 3.5 climate trends observed over the last of its economies, reliance on natural per cent every year, doubling every 40 years show that overall average resources, fast and three decades. Experts fear that temperatures have risen. The most weak governance, the repeated exposure available food resources will not recent severe drought, in 2012, was to extreme climate risks further be sufficient to sustain a growing the third to hit the Sahel in less than a deteriorating the region’s existing population. Projections estimate that decade. With climate shocks coming vulnerabilities. twice more cereals will need to be at a higher rate, vulnerable households available to sustain the food needs are increasingly less able to cope with of the population by 2050. for crises and struggle to recover in time the region’s agriculture –which 98 percent is rainfed- is getting scarcer.

A more unpredictable weather: Projections show that while average rainfall will remain fairly constant, current climate variability will be exacerbated, with alternating episodes of extreme droughts and rains. © “A global perspective on African climate” in Climatic Change

300 million 3°C - 6°C 7 20% people expected to live in the Projected increase in droughts in Niger over the last expected average loss of Sahel by 2045. temperatures in the Sahel by 23 years production for main cereals the end of the 21st century crops by 2050 (IPPC report V) 3

Water availability per inhabitant has livestock deaths, collapsed fisheries, depend on agriculture and farming for dropped by over 40 per cent in the past soil salinity, and increasing poverty their livelihoods. Experts predict that 20 years due to population growth and throughout the region. Communities a temperature increase of 1,2 to 1,9 decreasing resources. that were previously living on the shores degree Celsius (°C) - which is below of the have seen their livelihoods projections for the region - will be destroyed. Many head to neighbouring enough to increase by 95 per cent the A LAKE DISAPPEARS countries or further afield in search of number of malnourished people in opportunities that the region by 2050. Some studies have The shrinking of Lake Chad is one can no longer provide. shown that a 3 per cent temperature of the most striking examples of increase will lead to a 15 to 25 per environmental degradation in the cent decrease of food production. Sahel region. Previously straddling the EXACERBATING EXISTING According to experts, if the trends do borders of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and not change, Africa will be able to meet Nigeria, over the last fifty years the lake VULNERABILITIES only 13 per cent of its food needs by has shrunk to a small proportion of its If not addressed, climate change 2050. Increased temperatures, rainfall original size. The dramatic reduction of effects across the region will continue and flooding also risk to increase the its surface, equally attributed to shifting to threaten the , health incidence of water-borne diseases such climatic patterns with less rainfall and nutritional status of millions, as cholera. and to high demands for agricultural particularly the vast majority who water, has contributed to crop failures,

“When the rains start, hope returns. But it doesn't rain as it used to. The last season hit us really hard. The rains million in simply stopped. All is gone people6 face severe food children1 under five5 year is again.” insecurity malnourished Musa Sahel, Burkina Faso 4

CONFLICTS, CRIME AND CONTRABAND SECURITY CHALLENGES THREATEN THE REGIONAL STABILITY

Increasing violence, conflict and patterns in the Lake Chad region. One insecurity over the past two years have STRETCHED RESOURCES in every five people in Diffa was not driven millions of people from their Large-scale displacement has there some months ago and has now homes across the Sahel and devastated exacerbated an already fragile fled from the raging violence. The livelihoods. humanitarian situation. Both the provincial capital has become a safe displaced and their hosts are at ever haven for many. But its capacity to cope greater risk. Around the Lake Chad with the arrival is stretched to the limits. POPULATION Basin in particular, food insecurity has Humanitarian indicators were already dramatically spiked. Acute malnutrition in the red zone prior to recent waves of DISPLACEMENT is also on the rise, surpassing the displacement. Almost three quarters of Throughout the region, as many emergency threshold in many areas. Diffa’s population were food insecure. as 4.5 million people now live in Essential services, health facilities and One health clinic provided services for displacement. This is almost three schools have been decimated. Violence 12,000 people. These meagre resources times more than in 2012. Over a short and border closures prevent farmers are now shared with another 150,000 of period of time, turmoil in Libya, from accessing their lands and impede their exhausted and traumatized fellow profound instability in northern Mali, crucial trade and transhumance routes, human beings. and the escalation of violence by Boko all undermining the livelihoods of Haram have had a devastating impact. communities that are still recovering Increasingly interlinked, they are deeply from a decade of periodic droughts. CROSSROAD FOR affecting thousands of communities and The story of Diffa –the poorest region COMMERCE AND CRIME families that already counted among the of the poorest country in the world- world’s poorest. tells, in a nutshell, that of displacements Wedged between sub- and , the Sahel is a vast thoroughfare across the that also connects to and the Middle DISPLACEMENTS TREND IN THE SAHEL (2012 - 2015) East. Extensive, impoverished and sparsely populated in vast areas, it has increasingly been exploited by criminal and trafficking networks. Ancestral Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) Refugees trade and migration routes between the and Returnees Sahel and Sahara communities are now often being used for smuggling drugs, migrants or illicit products filling the space left by conflict, weak governance and lack of cross-border cooperation. Criminal activities come with huge profits and have reached a level that poses a threat to governance and social stability locally and beyond.

$3.8 billion 30% 1.5 years 60% estimated yearly profit drop in foreign investment in average length of school of victims of human trafficking generated by arms, drugs and Nigeria since 2010, following enrolment for children in Chad detected in the region are human trafficking in the Sahel the surge in violence and children insecurity 5 Refugee sites Displaced persons Nigerian 2.5M IDPs Malian 956k Refugees Soudanese 1M Returnees Centrafrican 4.5M Conflicts Number of refugees LIBYA Number of IDP and returnees Cross-border population movements

MAURITANIA MALI

51k Kidal NIGER 544k CHAD 153k 128k Menaka Tombouctou Dakar 382k Diffa SENEGAL 152k Lac 0 11k 34k Banjul NIGERIA Ouagadougou N'Djamena Maroua Abuja

COTE 2.2M GHANA D’IVOIRE 323k CENTRAFICANE 158k REPUBLIQUE TOGO

CAMEROON Yaounde

children are now out of school, 70 per organizations. Across conflict-hit areas, INSTABILITY AND YOUTH cent of whom living in the poorest and they have scaled up operations and violence-hit northern . logistics to deliver assistance to people RADICALIZATION in hard-to-reach or insecure areas, In many instances, radical groups fill where needs are the most acute. In an existing vacuum and proposing The Sahel faces numerous political north-east Nigeria and in Mali, over 60 alternatives to the classic governance and socio-economic challenges. With and 90 organizations respectively and security model, including provision 60 per cent of its population under 25 are delivering critical assistance to of essential services, and sometimes years lack of education, unemployment, communities affected by violence. In succeed in doing so. poverty and exclusion make fertile areas around the Lake , ground for disenfranchisement, north-east Mauritania or northern grievance and radicalization. Many risk Mali where safe road access is difficult, their lives crossing the and sea STAY AND DELIVER humanitarian air bridges provide a to Europe. Frustration due to lack of Amid the increasing presence of lifeline enabling timely assistance to life opportunities and the perception of armed groups and ongoing conflicts, millions in need. neglect can draw youths into extremist the preservation of humanitarian groups. In Nigeria, 10.5 million space remains a top priority for aid

“I didn’t leave for fear of the insurgents. I left to protect my sons from being recruited into .” 155 1.4 million Asasbe aid workers attacked between children displaced by brutal Kaduna, Nigeria 2001 – 2015 violence in the Lake Chad region 6

AFRICA’S MIGRATION HUB DEPARTURE POINT AND CORRIDOR OF DANGEROUS MIGRATION ROUTES

The Sahel has been characterized by West African migrants to Europe has a long history of migration. Most steadily increased over the last four COMPOUNDING FACTORS movements continue to take place years, with Sahelian migrants mostly With its fast-growing, young and within West Africa, and the presence of originating from the Gambia, Mali, increasingly urban population, the migrants has been tolerated for years as Niger, Nigeria and Senegal. On the Sahel is undergoing rapid demographic a vital component of the intraregional so-called ‘backway’ to Europe, almost change. The lack of opportunities for economy. Today, the region is also all other West and Central African young people - low wages, lack of part of mass migration and human migrants also pass through the Sahel to employment, limited education - is a trafficking towards Europe, increasingly cross the desert into Libya and Algeria. powerful driver of migration. Droughts, fuelled by the impact of demographic With some 120,000 people expected flooding and land degradation have pressure, environmental degradation, to transit through Niger in 2015 further increased competition over poverty and conflict. alone, migration also has become an resources and contribute to movements important economic driver. Smuggling inside and outside the region. Recent

networks are making hundreds of conflicts in Mali and the Lake Chad THE WAY TO EUROPE millions of dollars every year, and basin have triggered massive population diaspora remittances are a significant displacements and destroyed the scarce The Sahel is both the departure point pillar of economies throughout the livelihoods of millions. and a key corridor in the migration region. routes to Europe. The proportion of

MIGRANTS ARRIVING IN EUROPE FROM SAHEL COUNTRIES (2009-2014)

Source: Frontex

75% up to 4,000 2,800 $150 million of the Sahel’s population are migrants pass through migrants died on the Central migrant smugglers’ estimated younger than 35 years old every week Mediterranean route in 2015, yearly profit on the West Africa - half of them from West Africa Europe axis 7

The Central Mediterranean route used those who are found undocumented. MIXED MIGRATION by these mixed migration flows from Migrants sent back from North Migrants and refugees increasingly the Sahel also is the most dangerous. African countries often find themselves make use of the same routes and means In 2015, over 2,800 people lost their without assistance or means to return of transportation to get to a destination. lives, more than half of them from West to their countries of origin. Migrants, Many migrants from the Sahel are Africa. The desert often proves to be as and particularly the most vulnerable young men looking to improve their deadly as the sea. categories, need to receive protection living conditions, whereas refugees and emergency humanitarian include highly vulnerable single assistance, which includes food, medical women who are particularly exposed HUMANITARIAN NEEDS services, psychosocial support, family to exploitation, and unaccompanied tracing, legal counselling and counter- Irregular migration also is increasingly children at risk of abuse, exploitation trafficking. perceived by Governments as a security or trafficking. It is estimated that 60 per threat. Several countries in the region cent of the human trafficking victims are gathering migrants and deporting detected in the region are children.

“Harvests are worse every year. Our fields near Lake Chad are unsafe. What else to gain a living? Look in billion elsewhere. The young men migrants1 from Nigeria4 is a of$24 remittances to Sahel are leaving.” woman or a child countries in 2013 Achta Kanem region, Chad 8

MOUNTING HUMANITARIAN NEEDS

More acute threats and risks arising from an increasingly hostile environment have made communities more vulnerable today than twenty years ago. In 2016, the Sahel countries count amongst the world’s most at risk of crises and disasters. Some 24 million people are expected to fqce food insecurity in 2016, about a fourth of whom will require food assistance at the peak of the lean season. Malnutrition rates are reaching emergency levels in many communities throughout the region, often rapidly increasing in conflict-affected areas. Chronic poverty, lack of access to basic services, and the absence of social safety nets make communities extremely vulnerable to disease and epidemics. INFORM is a composite index for risk management that identifies countries at a high risk of Natural disasters such as droughts, humanitarian crisis which are more likely to require international assistance. floods and animal pests continue to exhaust the resources of millions. As violence spirals in the Lake Chad on the generosity of their vulnerable Basin and protracts in northern Mali, neighbours and humanitarian millions are increasingly dependent assistance.

NEW PARTNERSHIPS NEEDED TO CURB THE TREND OF GROWING HUMANITARIAN NEEDS

These increasing humanitarian needs difference between life and death for Efforts undergone by the region’s are affecting the most vulnerable millions. Governments and the international families. Furthermore, they are the community to attack its drivers are But humanitarian action can only most visible symptom of the Sahel’s encouragingly on the increase. But the buy time for permanent solutions to triple crisis - humanitarian, governance sheer scale of the crisis, its complexity be found and deals to be brokered. and security - which is eroding its and potential for further deterioration The region’s poorest families must population’s legendary resilience. call for a new sense of urgency. be at the heart of coordinated and Simultaneously facing multiple sustained action from Governments, challenges, humanitarian teams humanitarian and development continue to save lives as a first priority actors to break the cycle of crises and and are trying to help communities instability in the Sahel. to bounce back faster. Year after year, humanitarian action makes the

23.5 million million million million people expected to be children1.9 under five years children4 under five years people4.5 are displaced by aid organisations110 are food insecure in 2016 are severely acutely are moderately acutely conflict responding to emergency malnourished (SAM) malnourished (MAM) needs accross 9 countries

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Contact: Berenice Van Den Driessche, +221 77 333 91 95, [email protected] January 2016