Early Warning Bulletin1 September 05, 2018 The 6th round of PSNP has been 88% completed and was dispatched in Somalia alone. The 7th round of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone. EWER Directorate, NDRMC www.dppc.gov.et CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR KIREMT2018 Based on the global, regional and local pre- South and southeast (Climatologically seasonal indicators as well as their dry) portions of the nation will receive dynamical/statistical predictions, the following occasional rainfall during early June conclusions can be drawn for the Kiremt and September 2018. climate outlook 2018 The onset of the seasonal rain is In general, with the expectation of near expected to be within the normal normal episodic event of the Pacific periods across the southwestern and Ocean during the upcoming NH western Ethiopia and slightly late over summer monsoon, most of the Kiremt North-west. benefiting areas of the country are anticipated to have at most wet weather Normal Cessation for the Kiremt activity. benefiting areas is expected. Many places of northern, northeastern, central, western, southwestern, eastern, and adjoining Rift Valley areas are expected to receive dominantly above normal rainfall. In addition, southern highlands and southern Ethiopia are likely to receive normal tending to above normal rainfall activity. Whereas, normal rainfall activity is expected over pocket areas of northwestern Ethiopia. Source:-NMA It is also likely that occasional heavy falls at places that may inundate low – lying areas and around river basins. Early Warning and Emergency Response Directorate, NDRMC Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected] [2] 1. Weather outlook and its possible southern Oromiya and south eastern impact for 1-30 September , 2018 Ethiopia are starting to receive rainfall. At normal circumstance September is the In general based on NMA forecast all Zones last month of Kiremt season. During this of Tigray, Benshangul Gumuz and Gambella transition month the seasonal rain going to Regions, in Amhara Region (West and East weaken and decreasing across most parts of Gojam, North Shewa, Bahir Dar Zuria, Awi, Kiremt rain benefiting areas. In the contrast North and South Gonder Zones), in Oromiya the southern and south eastern parts which Region (East and West Wellega, Jimma, Illu were dry in the past months are receiving the Ababora, East, West and North Shewa, Arsi second rainy season. After the first ten days and Bale Zones), Addis Ababa, in SNNPR of September rain bring meteorological (Hadiya, Gurage, Wellayita, Dawro, Gamo phenomena going to withdraw from north Gofa, Keffa, Benchi Maji, Sidama and and north eastern and persist across western, Gedeo Zones) are likely to have mostly south western and central parts of the normal and above normal amount of rainfall. country. The coming Bega dry condition is Moreover due to strong convective cloud starting to dominate over eastern, north development is expected to occur heavy fall eastern and central parts after the last weeks in isolated places. In addition, in Amhara of the coming month. Region (North and South Wello), in According to the forecast information in the Oromiya Region (East and West Harerghe, coming September due to cumulative Zones of southern Oromiya), Dire Dawa, convective cloud is likely to occur heavy fall Hareri, in Somali Region (Jigjiga, City, Fik, with thunderstorm and hail in some places Degehabuor and Gode Zones) and in of the country. Moreover after mid SNNPR (South Omo and Segen Hisboch) September rain brings meteorological suppose to get mostly near normal amount phenomena will have strengthen across of rainfall. southern parts of the country. Likewise 2| P a g e [3] Issues needing attention based on the receiving Kiremt rain. Furthermore high NMA’s forecast for September, 2018 flow of river water and discharge from Dams are observed in large rivers and their Based on NMA forecast in the coming tributaries mainly in upper and middle month Kiremt season rain gradually catchments. Therefore, the effect of river decreasing from north and north eastern and channel flow in addition to precipitation persist across western, south western and might cause flood along low lying areas of central parts of Kiremt benefiting areas. The the lower catchments. presence of rain over Meher agricultural areas would favor for crop growing stage Crop and livestock condition based on the and moisture availability for the late sowing weekly Regional Situation Update Report crops. Moreover due to convective cloud development heavy falls with thunderstorm Crop condition and hail storm is likely occurring over some SNNPR places of the country. Likewise attention should be given over those areas in order to As the regional report stated that, a total of protect the adverse effect of landslide, flash 1,058,495 ha (971,771 ha crops and 86,724 flood and riverbank flood hazards. horticultural crops) plan to cultivated in the Meher season. From which 450,411 ha During September south eastern and (42.55%) of land covered with various crop southern parts of the country are starting to varieties. In Silte, Bench Maji, Dawero, get rainfall. The anticipated of near normal Sheka, Hadiya, Sidama, Wolayita, Gurage amount of rainfall have more advantage for and Kembata tembaro Zones, Crops are improvement of water resource and pasture found in various stages from sowing to early availability over eastern, south eastern and vegetative stage. southern parts of the country. Accordingly attention should be given the downstream of Oromia Region southern and south eastern catchments Crops are found from vegetative to flowering because of upper stream of those areas were 3| P a g e [4] Stage as the regional report stated. Hareri Region Amhara Region As indicated by the regional report crops like A total of 4,465,836 ha planned to cultivate in maize and sorghum are at flowering and a Meher season. From which 4,167,095 ha sorghum crops are at maturity in the midland were cultivated and 3,970,022 ha were areas in the region covered with crops as indicated by the region. Dire Dawa City Administration Crops are found from sowing to flowering As the City administration report stated that stages. sorghum crops are found at flowering stage. Benishangul Gumuz Region Afar Region As the regional report confirmed that Meher Some crops like Tomato and Onion had season crops cultivation practices are going found at harvesting stage in Dubti and on as it was planned. Crops are found from Asayeta Woreda as stated by the region. sowing to flowering stage. Maize crops are at sowing in Koneba, Berehale, Amibara and Awashi Woredas. Gambela Region As the regional report stated that crops are Crop pest and diseases found in various stage from vegetative to Oromia Region flowering stage. The incidence of Fall Armyworm has been Tigray Region seen in East Hararghe 18 Woredas on 19110 As the regional report indicated that the ha of land and Chemical and traditional methods were used to control the pest as Meher season Agricultural activities are still indicated by the region. Yellow Rest going on but crops sowing activities are in a incidence has also observed in Aresi Zone on way to finished. Crops are found from early 1140 ha. Unknown maize disease has also observed in West Shewa Zone Ilu-Gelan vegetative to early maturity stage. Woreda on 201 ha maize crop. 4| P a g e [5] Amhara Region Benishangul Gumuz Region As indicated by the regional report the The report from the region stated that, the incidence of Fall Armyworm has seen in incidence of Fall Armyworm had observed in North Shewa Zone (Ankober, Eferata- most parts of the region on maize crops. Gedem, Tarema Bere and Qewot Woredas on Chemical and traditional Methods were 1,094 ha), North Wolo Zone (Raya Kobo, applied to control the infestation. The Habru and Gubalafto Woreda 0n 8,910), Awi incidence of rodents like rats flock were seen Zone (All Woredas on 11,455.5 ha), South in the region and traditional method were Gonder Zone (Libo Kemekem and Endabit used to control the incidence. Woreda on 3,401 ha), North Wolo Zone Gambela Region (Raya Kobo, Haberu and Gubalaftu The incidence of Fall Armyworm has seen in Woredas), Cental Gondar Zone (Gondar all Woredas of the region and chemical and Zuriya, Alefa, East Dembiya, West Dembiya, traditional methods were used to control the Taqusa, Tegede and Kinfaz Woredas on worm as stated by the regional report. 8,760 ha) and South Wolo Zone (Tehuledere, Worebabo, Ambasel, Kalu, Alebeko, Borena, Tigray Region Kombolcha City, Dessie Zuria and Kutabere The regional report stated that, the incidence on 2,534 ha). A total of 36,154.5 ha maize of Fall Armyworm has seen in all Woredas of and sorghum crop were infested and the region. From a total of 88,936 ha crop chemical and traditional control method were 14,532 ha crops were infested by the pest. applied on 29,856.25 ha. But in areas like Chemical and traditional methods were North Wolo Zone (Raya Kobo, Haberu and applied on 4፣774 ha and 5,792 ha Gubalafetu Woreda) face shortage of respectively. The worm finishes its life cycle chemicals to control. The incidence of Stalk and puppet in the ground. Borer were seen on maize crops in South Wolo 9 Woredas on 10,786 ha maize crops. Chemical and traditional methods were applied to control on 9,683 ha. 5| P a g e [6] Pasture and Drinking Water North Wollo zone, shortage of pasture was reported. SNNPR Tigray Region Except in some pocket areas, there was no Since there was adequate rainfall in the scarcity of pasture and livestock water supply region, the livestock water and pasture supply in the majority of areas of the region.