Penny for Your Vote? Counting the Cost of an Unfair Electoral System

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Penny for Your Vote? Counting the Cost of an Unfair Electoral System Penny for your vote? Counting the cost of an unfair electoral system Report & Chris Terry Analysis Contents 3 Introduction 4 Background 5 Most valued 7 Least valued 9 Hitting the target 10 Paper candidates 13 Turnout and spending 15 Conclusion 17 Appendix 1 18 Appendix 2 Penny for your vote? Chris Terry Counting the cost of an unfair electoral system 3 Introduction It is a basic principle of democracy that all both of these factors need to be addressed. votes should hold equal value. But in Britain, We need properly and sustainably funded the cash value of an individual’s vote varies political parties incentivised to campaign across wildly depending simply on where they live. the country, not just in a few fiercely contested This report demonstrates for the first time the seats. We need a party funding system that huge differences in the amounts that parties recognises the crucial role that parties play in spend on attracting votes. Through an analysis mobilising voters. And we need an electoral of spending at the 2010 general election, system that values each voter equally no matter we show that British politics has become where they live. the ultimate postcode lottery: in cash terms, voters living in safe seats are hugely undervalued in comparison with those living in marginal seats. OUR KEY FINDINGS: • The amount of money spent on winning a single vote varies between £3.07 and 14p. In other words, some voters are valued 22 times more than others • The amount of money spent by candidates has a direct impact on the likelihood that people will turn out to vote • In 195 seats (30% of the total), no money was spent by any candidate on public meetings • 348 candidates (8.6% of the total) spent no money at all on their campaigns. These included four Conservative candidates, four Labour and 20 Liberal Democrats These findings demonstrate how allvotes are not, after all, created equal. The degree to which votes are valued depends almost entirely on where those votes are found. Parties target their scant resources where they are most likely to have an effect, meaning that voters in safe seats – of any or no allegiance – are effectively ignored, even at election time. This inequality is driven by two factors: the financial constraints and uncertainties afflicting political parties; and Britain’s outdated electoral system. If we are going to redress the imbalance, Penny for your vote? Chris Terry 4 Counting the cost of an unfair electoral system Background 1. Wilks-Heeg, Today’s elections are controlled by parties. It is £1 has the same value for all the parties, and we Stuart and Crone, Stephen Funding common to talk of safe and marginal seats, but can measure their spending across the length Political Parties in the impact of whether a seat is safe or marginal and breadth of Britain. Great Britain: a Pathway to is not just seen in parties’ chances of winning Reform, pp9-10 or losing. It also affects the way those parties By using the Electoral Commission’s data2 http://demo- campaign. A safe seat can be safely ignored, from the 2010 general election, we are able to craticaudituk. files.wordpress. secure in the knowledge that the chances of it expose how money is spent in general election com/2013/06/2010- switching hands are slim. It is only the marginal campaigns in the UK. The report demonstrates party-funding.pdf (2010) seats that attract real attention in terms of how our outdated first-past-the-post voting campaigning activity and resources. system encourages parties to all but ignore 2. See http:// www.elector- great swathes of the electorate when it comes alcommission. The work of modern elections is primarily about to spending money, and how this contributes org.uk/elections/ targeting. This is for the logical reason that to lower turnout and voter disengagement. We election-spending/ party-campaign- parties broadly wish to apply minimal effort for show that the value of your vote depends expenditure. Full maximum gain. Seats are targeted by all parties, almost entirely on where you live. Methodology in Appendix 1. often with ruthless efficiency. And that is partly because parties have strained resources. Targeting does not necessarily imply that parties do not care about voters in safe seats, but more that they cannot spare the resources to spend on them. Where once, in the 1950s, parties had one member for every 11 voters, now it is closer to one for every 100. While there is more money in politics than ever before, parties are increasingly reliant on a small and unreliable pool of donors. This has resulted in a spending arms war, but also increased short-term financial difficulties for parties1. These financial pressures, combined with an out-of-date electoral system, create a clear logic in favour of ignoring safe seats and focusing on marginal ones. This report attempts to measure that effect. But what is the best way of measuring the effect of targeting? For the voter, the experience of being targeted involves receiving more leaflets, seeing more door-knocking activists and generally witnessing a superior campaign. In some ways, this is difficult to measure. But it all costs money. In a sense, money is the most objective measure of party campaigning because Penny for your vote? Chris Terry Counting the cost of an unfair electoral system 5 Most valued 3. BBC News, The ten seats which attracted the most amount the BNP, UKIP, the Greens and the Workers ‘Margaret Moran took £53k in false of money per vote cast tell us a lot about the Revolutionary Party, included five independents. MP expenses’ 13 way parties campaign in our outdated electoral One of those was Stephen Rhodes, a former November 2012, http://www.bbc. system. local radio presenter. Another was Esther co.uk/news/uk-eng- land-20309090 The ten most valued seats Constituency Name Rank Total Spend Votes Spending Per Vote Luton South 1 £129,687 42,216 £3.07 Aberconwy 2 £65,450 29,966 £2.18 Barking 3 £97,862 45,184 £2.17 Poplar and Limehouse 4 £99,766 46,533 £2.14 Northampton North 5 £83,437 40,271 £2.07 Hampstead and Kilburn 6 £106,709 52,822 £2.02 Buckingham 7 £96,341 48,335 £1.99 Norwich South 8 £94,665 47,551 £1.99 Brighton, Pavilion 9 £102,949 51,834 £1.99 Bethnal Green and Bow 10 £98,622 50,138 £1.97 These seats were either three-way marginals, Rantzen, the former journalist and television or seats which had been targeted by a third presenter whose campaign spent party or independent, or both. more money, in total, than the Liberal Democrats, coming in at £12.92 per vote. Ranked far and away at number 1 is Luton Labour held the seat. South, where votes cost £3.07 each, 89p more than Aberconwy, their closest competitor. Aberconwy was a tight Labour/Conservative marginal. As Plaid Cymru and the Liberal The seat had been home to the Labour MP Democrats were both within a ten-point swing Margaret Moran, who eventually stood trial as well, it was, just about, a four-way marginal. for her expenses claims with a jury ruling she Oddly, Labour spent only £7,689 in a seat had falsely claimed £53,0003. That drama they held that was at risk. The Conservatives encouraged parties to believe that the seat was spent £23,022 and the Liberal Democrats, in wide open, despite Labour’s 14.5% margin of third, spent £6,991. Fourth-placed Plaid Cymru victory at the previous election. The seat had spent the largest amount in the constituency, at been a Conservative one until 1997, so they £24,368. In the end the Conservatives won the fought hard to regain it. The Liberal Democrats seat with a majority of 11.3%. also poured in substantial sums, spending £21,015 in a seat where the party had come a Barking, Poplar and Limehouse, Brighton decent, but not close, third in 2005. For their Pavilion and Bethnal Green and Bow were all efforts the Liberal Democrats gained a mere seats where Labour was attempting to defend 0.1% of the vote. As well as strong funding from against minor parties: the BNP in Barking, the the big three parties, Luton South also attracted Greens in Brighton Pavilion and Respect in both 12 candidates in total, which in addition to Poplar and Limehouse and Bethnal Green and Penny for your vote? Chris Terry 6 Counting the cost of an unfair electoral system Bow. These seats benefited not only from high spending by the minor parties, but also from large amounts of Labour resources, perhaps demonstrating the party’s concern about being challenged in areas usually thought to be safe Labour. These seats were all held by Labour, except Brighton Pavilion which elected the Green Party’s first MP, Caroline Lucas. Northampton North, Hampstead and Kilburn and Norwich South were all seats which could theoretically have been won by any of the big three, though perhaps Northampton North was a longshot for the Liberal Democrats and Norwich South was more favourable to the Conservatives than their spending suggests. Norwich South was also targeted by the Greens, whose then deputy leader, Adrian Ramsay, ran in the seat. They achieved their second-best result in the UK, receiving 14.9%. Northampton North was gained by the Conservatives, Hampstead and Kilburn was held by Labour with an extremely tight majority of 42 and Norwich South was gained by the Liberal Democrats with another tight majority of 310.
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