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Distributed Generation and Demand Study Technology Growth Scenarios Distributed generation and demand study Technology growth scenarios to 2030 East Midlands licence area June 2017 Final This report was produced for Western Power Distribution Issue date January 2017 Version Final Hazel Williams, Johnny Gowdy and Written by: Joel Venn Approved by: Merlin Hyman Chief executive Regen, The Innovation Centre, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4RN T +44 (0)1392 494399 E [email protected] W regensw.co.uk Registered in England No: 04554636 All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced or published in any way (including online) without the prior permission of Regen Confidential – Final Final 1 Regen January 2017 Acronym list Acronym Definition ADBA Anaerobic Digestion & Bioresources Association AONB Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty BEV Battery Electric Vehicle CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbines CfD Contract for Difference CHP Combined Heat and Power DNO Distribution Network Operator DSR Demand Side Response DuoS Distribution use of System EFR Enhanced Frequency Response EfW Energy from Waste EPN Eastern Power Networks ERF Energy Recovery Facility ESA Electricity Supply Area EV Electric Vehicle FFR Firm Frequency Response FiT Feed-in Tariff LCOE Levelised Cost of Energy PHEV Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle PPA Power Purchase Agreement PPP Public–Private Partnership R&D Research and Development RDF Refuse-derived fuel RHI Renewable Heat Incentive RO Renewables Obligation SAC Special Area of Conservation SRF Solid Recovered Fuel SSSI Site of Special Scientific Interest STOR Short Term Operating Reserve ToUT Time of Use Tariff WMS Written Ministerial Statement Final 2 Regen January 2017 Table of Contents Section 1 - Introduction and methodology 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 “A revolution in the provision of our energy” ..................................................................................... 6 1.2 Building a case for strategic network reinforcement .......................................................................... 8 2 Methodology .................................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Objectives and output ....................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Assessment scope ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Summary of methodology ................................................................................................................. 13 2.4 The scenarios .................................................................................................................................... 14 Section 2 - Electricity generation technologies growth scenarios 3 Onshore wind ................................................................................................................. 16 3.1 Baseline: onshore wind growth to 2016 ........................................................................................... 18 3.2 Pipeline: onshore wind, 2016 to 2020 .............................................................................................. 22 3.3 Regen’s market insights: onshore wind ............................................................................................ 24 3.4 Scenarios: onshore wind, 2020 to 2030 ............................................................................................ 27 3.5 Resource assessment: onshore wind potential................................................................................. 30 3.6 Geographic distribution of the scenarios: onshore wind .................................................................. 31 4 Solar ................................................................................................................................ 33 4.1 Baseline: solar PV growth to 2016 .................................................................................................... 33 4.2 Pipeline: solar PV ............................................................................................................................... 37 4.3 Regen’s market insights: solar PV ..................................................................................................... 38 4.4 Scenarios: solar PV, 2017 to 2030 ..................................................................................................... 39 4.5 Scenario results: solar PV .................................................................................................................. 42 4.6 Geographic distribution .................................................................................................................... 43 4.7 Geographic distribution of scenarios: solar PV ................................................................................. 46 5 Offshore energy .............................................................................................................. 49 5.1 Baseline ............................................................................................................................................. 49 5.2 Pipeline .............................................................................................................................................. 49 5.3 Regen’s market insights .................................................................................................................... 49 5.4 Scenarios ........................................................................................................................................... 50 6 Anaerobic digestion ........................................................................................................ 51 6.1 Baseline: anaerobic growth to 2016 ................................................................................................. 51 6.2 Pipeline: anaerobic digestion, 2016 to 2017 ..................................................................................... 52 6.3 Regen’s market insights: anaerobic digestion ................................................................................... 52 6.4 Scenarios: anaerobic digestion, 2017 to 2030 .................................................................................. 55 7 Hydropower .................................................................................................................... 58 7.1 Baseline: hydropower growth to 2016 ............................................................................................. 58 7.2 Pipeline: hydropower, 2016 to 2020 ................................................................................................. 59 7.3 Regen’s market insights .................................................................................................................... 59 Final 3 Regen January 2017 7.4 Scenarios: hydropower, 2020 to 2030 .............................................................................................. 60 7.5 Geographic distribution of the scenarios: hydropower .................................................................... 62 8 Energy from Waste ......................................................................................................... 64 8.1 Baseline: energy from waste growth to 2016 ................................................................................... 64 8.2 Pipeline: energy from waste, 2016 to 2020 ...................................................................................... 64 8.3 Regen’s market insights: energy from waste .................................................................................... 64 8.4 Resource assessment: energy from waste ........................................................................................ 67 8.5 Scenarios: energy from waste, 2020 to 2030 .................................................................................... 68 Section 3 - Battery storage growth scenarios 9 Electricity Storage ........................................................................................................... 71 9.1 Introduction to the electricity storage market ................................................................................. 72 9.2 Emerging business models for electricity storage ............................................................................. 74 9.3 UK electricity storage market outlook and scenario assumptions .................................................... 78 9.4 WPD East Midlands licence area storage analysis ............................................................................ 93 Section 4 - Electricity demand growth scenarios 10 Electric vehicles .............................................................................................................. 99 10.1 Baseline: electric vehicles growth to 2016 ...................................................................................... 101 10.2 Pipeline: electric vehicles ................................................................................................................ 101 10.3 Regen’s market insights: electric vehicles ....................................................................................... 101 10.4 Scenarios: electric vehicles, 2016 to 2030 ...................................................................................... 104 10.5 Geographic distribution by ESA for electric vehicles......................................................................
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