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Pernod Ricard 19Th December 2017 Asia Accelerating Strongly Food & Beverages Fair Value EUR145 Vs

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Pernod Ricard 19Th December 2017 Asia Accelerating Strongly Food & Beverages Fair Value EUR145 Vs INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Pernod Ricard 19th December 2017 Asia accelerating strongly Food & Beverages Fair Value EUR145 vs. EUR130 (price EUR129.10) BUY Bloomberg RI FP We see a strong step-up in the group’s performance this year as both Reuters PERP.PA 12-month High / Low (EUR) 132.4 / 102.1 China and India are expected to return to high-single-digit sales Market capitalisation (EURm) 34,266 growth. Buy recommendation reiterated, Fair Value upgraded to Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 41,020 EUR145. Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 394.1 Free Float 79.4% We forecast organic sales growth of 9% in India (9% of total sales) 3y EPS CAGR 8.1% (vs +1% last year) as the effects of the highway ban should Gearing (06/17) 57% in 2017/18 Dividend yields (06/18e) 1.60% have completely disappeared in H2, enabling the group to tap into the country’s true potential. GST should finally turn out to be beneficial as YE June 06/17 06/18e 06/19e 06/20e the taxation of molasses and not grain neutral spirit is expected to Revenue (EURm) 9,010 9,123 9,681 10,316 EBIT(EURm) 2,394 2,401 2,582 2,802 accelerate the premiumisation of the market. China (8% of total Basic EPS (EUR) 5.61 5.73 6.42 7.09 sales) should also show a material improvement this year, driven by Diluted EPS (EUR) 5.58 5.71 6.39 7.06 a very dynamic cognac market and a resumption of the group’s EV/Sales 4.67x 4.50x 4.14x 3.79x investments in high-end scotch. Our estimate calls for 8% growth in EV/EBITDA 16.1x 15.6x 14.2x 12.8x EV/EBIT 17.6x 17.1x 15.5x 14.0x the country in 2017/18, after +2% in 2016/17. P/E 23.1x 22.6x 20.2x 18.3x ROCE 7.0 6.5 6.7 7.1 We now expect the group to deliver organic sales growth of 5.6% in Share price as at close of 15th December 2017/18, implying a significant improvement vs last year (+3.6%). This should accelerate to 6.2% in 2018/19 and 6.6% in 2019/20. Our previous 133.9 estimates for the next three years were, respectively, +5.1%, +5.4% and 123.9 +5.8%. We think the market is under-estimating the extent of the recovery in Asia. We have revised upward our EPS by 5% on average 113.9 over the next five years and our 2019/20 EPS forecast now stands 103.9 5.5% above the market consensus. 93.9 In our view, Pernod Ricard will announce a return of cash to 83.9 15/06/16 15/09/16 15/12/16 15/03/17 15/06/17 15/09/17 15/12/17 shareholders at the end of 2017/18. A buyback of EUR1.4bn should PERNOD-RICARD SXX EUROPE 600 have a 4% accretive impact on 2018/19 EPS. If the company prefers a special dividend, we calculate that this could reach 5.3EUR per share, pointing to a total dividend of EUR7.3 (payout ratio of 129% and dividend yield of 5.7%). In 2018e, the stock is trading at a discount of 18% in terms of EV/EBIT and 21% in terms of P/E. This is significantly above the average discount over the last 10 years which was 6% on EV/EBIT and 14% on P/E. Our DCF points to a Fair Value of EUR145, implying 12% upside potential. Our Buy recommendation is reiterated. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Virginie Roumage, CFA Nikolaas Faes 33(0) 1.56.68.75.22 Clément Genelot [email protected] Loic Morvan Cédric Rossi r r Pernod Ricard Simplified Profit & Loss Account (EURm) 30/06/15 30/06/16 30/06/17 30/06/18e 30/06/19e 30/06/20e Sales geographical breakdown, 2016/17 Revenues 8,558 8,682 9,010 9,123 9,681 10,316 Change (%) 7.7% 1.4% 3.8% 1.3% 6.1% 6.6% Asia-ROW Europe 40% Gross Profit 5,296 5,339 5,602 5,638 6,022 6,458 31% Contribution after A&P 3,453 3,473 3,912 3,905 4,182 4,498 Adjusted EBITDA 2,456 2,494 2,619 2,629 2,824 3,060 Recurring EBIT 2,238 2,277 2,394 2,401 2,582 2,802 Change (%) 8.9% 1.7% 5.1% 0.3% 7.5% 8.5% Financial results (489) (432) (373) (315) (280) (260) Pre-Tax profits 1,100 1,663 1,858 2,086 2,302 2,542 Tax (221) (409) (438) (492) (526) (585) Minority interests / Discontinued operations (18.0) (20.0) (27.0) (29.0) (31.0) (33.0) Net profit group share 861 1,234 1,393 1,565 1,746 1,923 Americas Restated net profit group share 1,329 1,380 1,482 1,515 1,696 1,873 29% Change (%) 12.2% 3.8% 7.4% 2.2% 11.9% 10.5% EBIT geographical breakdown, 2016/17 Cash Flow Statement (EURm) Europe Operating cash flows 2,466 2,529 2,635 2,641 2,840 3,082 25% Asia-ROW Change in working capital 192 211 65.0 172 226 263 42% Capex, net 313 337 357 319 339 361 Financial investments / tax paid 807 781 742 807 806 845 Dividends 461 497 511 536 548 613 Other(s) (913) (260) 49.0 290 1.0 0.0 Net debt 9,020 8,715 7,851 6,754 5,830 4,831 Free Cash flow 1,154 1,200 1,471 1,343 1,470 1,613 Balance Sheet (EURm) Tangible fixed assets 2,933 3,233 3,028 3,103 3,171 3,230 Intangibles assets 17,706 17,572 17,152 17,495 17,845 18,202 Americas 33% Cash & equivalents 595 577 700 1,890 2,814 2,963 current assets 7,419 7,282 7,520 8,799 10,129 10,740 Other assets 2,339 2,511 2,387 2,353 2,330 2,306 Company description Total assets 30,397 30,598 30,088 31,750 33,475 34,478 L & ST Debt 9,510 9,362 8,545 8,661 8,661 7,811 Pernod Ricard was formed in 1975 Others liabilities 7,600 7,730 7,656 7,681 7,974 8,286 from the merger of two French anis Shareholders' funds 13,288 13,506 13,886 15,407 16,840 18,382 groups (Pernod and Ricard). Through Total Liabilities 17,110 17,092 16,201 16,342 16,634 16,097 organic development and various Capital employed 26,041 26,056 25,493 27,273 28,840 29,668 acquisitions (Seagram in 2001, Allied Ratios Domecq in 2005, V&S in 2008), Gross profit margin 62.5 61.1 61.9 62.1 60.7 61.5 A&P as % of sales 19.0 19.0 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.0 Pernod Ricard has now become the Contribution after A&P as % of sales 42.9 42.5 43.4 42.8 43.2 43.6 second largest wine and spirits group Recurring operating margin 26.2 26.2 26.6 26.3 26.7 27.2 worldwide. The company commands a Effective tax rate 20.1 24.6 23.6 23.6 22.8 23.0 global 18% share behind Diageo Underlying tax rate 24.4 24.5 25.2 26.0 25.0 25.0 Net margin group share 10.1 14.2 15.5 17.2 18.0 18.6 (28%). The group’s strategy is based ROE (after tax) 6.6 9.3 10.2 10.3 10.6 10.6 on three pillars: decentralization, ROCE (after tax) 6.5 6.6 7.0 6.5 6.7 7.1 premiumisation and innovation. Gearing 67.9 64.5 56.5 43.8 34.6 26.3 Pay out ratio 36.1 36.2 36.2 36.0 36.0 36.0 Number of shares, diluted 266,230 265,633 265,478 265,478 265,478 265,478 Data per Share (EUr) Restated basic EPS 5.03 5.20 5.61 5.73 6.42 7.09 Restated diluted EPS 4.99 5.20 5.58 5.71 6.39 7.06 % change 11.9% 4.1% 7.5% 2.2% 11.9% 10.5% BVPS 49.91 50.84 52.31 58.04 63.43 69.24 Operating cash flows 9.26 9.52 9.93 9.95 10.70 11.61 FCF 4.33 4.52 5.54 5.06 5.54 6.07 Net dividend 1.80 1.88 2.02 2.06 2.31 2.55 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. 2 Pernod Ricard Table of contents 1. Investment Case ...........................................................................................................................................4 2. India recovering strongly in 2017/18… ..................................................................................................5 3. …as well as China........................................................................................................................................9 4. The US and Europe proving highly satisfactory ................................................................................. 12 4.1. US: closing the gap with the market .................................................................................................. 12 4.2. Europe: the East driving the growth ................................................................................................. 15 5. A bright outlook for 2017/18 ................................................................................................................ 16 5.1. A strong acceleration in the top line driven by Asia-ROW .......................................................... 16 5.2. An EBIT margin flat in organic this year but improving from 2018/19 .................................... 17 5.3. Potential upwards revisions in consensus estimates ....................................................................... 18 6. A very healthy financial situation leaving room for cash return to shareholders .........................
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