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Anomalous Patterns in California Current Pelagic Micronekton Distribution and Abundance in 2015

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Anomalous Patterns in California Current Pelagic Micronekton Distribution and Abundance in 2015 Anomalous patterns in California Current pelagic micronekton distribution and abundance in 2015 John Field1, Keith Sakuma1, Baldo Marinovic2, Cynthia Carrion2, and Nathan Mantua1 With additional contributions by Jarrod Santora2, Isaac Schroeder3, Elliott Hazen3 and Steven Bograd3 1 Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center 2 University of California Santa Cruz 3 Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center May-June midwater trawl survey in coastal waters of the California Current- primary objectives • Develop estimates of abundance for pelagic Young-of- the-year rockfish (Sebastes spp.) and other groundfish for use as pre-recruit indices in stock assessments (Assessment survey) • Improve our understand of the physical and biological ecosystem factors that lead to strong or weak year classes (Process studies) • To improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in the micronekton (forage) assemblage, including the role of YOY rockfish and other groundfish within that assemblage, particularly as related to climate variability and oceanographic conditions (Ecosystem studies) Time and Place • SWC has surveyed a “core” area (central California) since 1983 (33 years time series), expanded range in 2004 from the U.S./Mexico border to Cape Mendocino • Several others surveys cover northern regions (NWFSC), data are pooled for rockfish recruitment indices and other analyses, but not included here (shorter time series). From 1983 through 2008 all cruises were on the R/V David Starr Jordan, Midwater trawling conducted at night, since then have used 5 different vessels typically 30 m HR depth, using a modified (including Ocean Starr, former DSJ) Cobb trawl with 3/8” codend liner Rockfish and other species are sorted, measured and enumerated at sea In addition to quantifying juvenile rockfish and other micronekton, research plan includes a suite of physical and biological observations 34.0 33.8 33.6 33.4 33.2 Salinity [o/oo] 33.0 32.8 shelf shelf 2005 shelf 2006 slope slope 2005 slope 2006 oceanic oceanic 2005 oceanic 2006 32.6 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 Temperature [oC] Physical Oceanography (CTD and Fluorometry), Acoustic estimates of abundance and upwards of 300 casts per year, data online distribution of krill and other micronekton Sampling on adult rockfish and jumbo Seabird and marine mammal transects squid for life history and food habit studies during daylight hours (data back to 1987) The LA Times knows the difference … So what is the deal with ENSO and sea surface temperatures in the California Current? Impending “strongest El Niño ever” “El Niño’s of the century” preceded ~9mos by the CCS warming! CCS warming, yes moderate El Niños NINO3 (5S-5N 150-90W) California Current (U.S. west coast to 500km) mixed story in CCS NOAA/NCEP OISST v.2 Graphic courtesy of Paul Fielder, Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, SWFSC National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 May 1 (survey start) Southern California has been anomalously warm since 2014, with lower than average upwelling winds, but the real spike in SSTs came after our survey concluded. (updates from I. Schroeder, climatology 1982-2015) 9 May 1 (survey start) Central California was very slightly cooler than average at the start of the survey, but that cool period was sandwiched between very warm anomalies! Upwelling was generally about average (updates from I. Schroeder, climatology 1982-2015) 10 Physical conditions analyzed from CTD casts include temperature, salinity, depth of the 26.1 isopycnal and stratification- in 2015 the core area physical properties were not terribly anomalous, although conditions were more El Nino-like in the Southern California Bight (core area figures updated from Santora et al. 2014) 2015 catches were bizzare!! We had record catches of YOY rockfish and some other YOY groundfish, high to record catches of gelatinous organisms (salps, pyrosomes, etc.), and record catches of what have previously considered to be “El Nino” or subtropical water mass species (pelagic red crabs, lobster phyllosoma, a suite of never observed before were collected such as the slender snipefish, smalleye squaretails, pelagic stingray and the greater argonaut) 5 1.5 YOY rockfish Adult Pacific sardine 4 1.0 3 2 0.5 1 0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 5 3 YOY Pacific hake Adult northern anchovy 4 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1.4 5 YOY Pacific sanddab YOY Pacific sardine 1.2 4 1.0 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean 3 catch log-transformed Mean 0.8 0.6 2 0.4 1 0.2 0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 4 6 Market squid YOY northern anchovy 5 3 4 North 2 Core 3 South 2 North Core 1 1 South 0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Year 13 anomaly anomaly anomaly -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 1990 1990 1990 1992 1992 1992 1994 1994 1994 south north core 1996 1996 1996 Juvenile rockfish Pacific sardine 1998 1998 1998 Euphausiids 2000 2000 2000 2002 2002 2002 2004 2004 2004 2006 2006 2006 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2012 2012 2012 2014 2014 2014 anomaly anomaly anomaly -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 1990 1990 1990 1992 1992 1992 1994 1994 1994 1996 Northern anchovy 1996 1996 Market squid Juvenile Pacific sanddabs 1998 1998 1998 2000 2000 2000 2002 2002 2002 2004 2004 2004 2006 2006 2006 2008 2008 2008 2010 2010 2010 2012 2012 2012 2014 2014 2014 14 Young-of-the-year rockfish 4 Shortbelly rockfish 0.8 YOY cowcod 3 0.6 2 0.4 1 0 0.2 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 3 Chilipepper 0.8 YOY blackgill rockfish Most at high, many at record 0.6 2 high levels (left)- continuing a 0.4 1 run of several strong years 0.2 0 0.0 beginning in 2013- the 2013 year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2.5 0.4 Widow rockfish YOY darkblotched rockfish class already present in survey 2.0 0.3 1.5 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean and fishery length and age data. Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2.5 1.4 Canary rockfish North YOY copper rockfish complex 1.2 2.0 Core 1.0 South 1.5 0.8 North 0.6 1.0 Core South 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Year 15 Standardized anomalies from Delta-GLM year effects for the ten most abundant species in the core area and updated PC1 from PCA (update of Ralston et al. 2013) 3 Brown Widow Yellowtail Chilipepper Squarespot Shortbelly Blue Bocaccio Canary Stripetail PC1 2 1 0 -1 StandardizedAnomalies -2 -3 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Major El Niño Events Low productivity in Central California 9 8 North Salps Gelatinous macrozooplankton 7 Core 6 South 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 6 North Pyrosoma 5 Core South 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 4 North Thetys 3 Core South 2 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1.6 North 1.4 Carinaria Core 1.2 South 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year 11/12/2015 17 Pelagic red crabs Warm water micronekton 3 2 1 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0.4 Phyllosoma 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1.0 King-of-the-salmon 0.8 0.6 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean 0.4 0.2 0.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1.8 1.6 Phronima 1.4 1.2 1.0 North 0.8 Core 0.6 South 0.4 0.2 0.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year 18 0.35 Subtropical krill species- %FO 0.3 Core area Krill 0.25 Southern California Bight Although time series rather 0.2 short, a much greater 0.15 frequency of occurrence of 0.1 subtropical species in 2015 (Nyctiphanes simplex, 0.05 Euphausia mutica, E. eximia,). 0 2001 2006 2011 2016 Nyctiphanes simplex Euphausia eximia Images from Scripps Institute of Oceanography Zooplankton Guide- https://scripps.ucsd.edu/zooplanktonguide/order/507 19 12 Central California E. PACIFICA Cosmopolitan 10 T. SPINIFERA Cold water, coastal N. DIFFICILIS Transition-cool 8 T. GREGARIA E. RECURVA 6 Transition-warm E. GIBBOIDES log log + (catch 1) 4 N. SIMPLEX Subtropical E. EXIMIA 2 E. MUTICA 0 All Euphausia In past, the incursion of warm water 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 species was often associated with Southern California Bight declines in the abundance of the more 12 E.
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