Anomalous patterns in California Current pelagic micronekton distribution and abundance in 2015
John Field1, Keith Sakuma1, Baldo Marinovic2, Cynthia Carrion2, and Nathan Mantua1
With additional contributions by
Jarrod Santora2, Isaac Schroeder3, Elliott Hazen3 and Steven Bograd3
1 Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center 2 University of California Santa Cruz 3 Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center May-June midwater trawl survey in coastal waters of the California Current- primary objectives • Develop estimates of abundance for pelagic Young-of- the-year rockfish (Sebastes spp.) and other groundfish for use as pre-recruit indices in stock assessments (Assessment survey) • Improve our understand of the physical and biological ecosystem factors that lead to strong or weak year classes (Process studies) • To improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in the micronekton (forage) assemblage, including the role of YOY rockfish and other groundfish within that assemblage, particularly as related to climate variability and oceanographic conditions (Ecosystem studies) Time and Place • SWC has surveyed a “core” area (central California) since 1983 (33 years time series), expanded range in 2004 from the U.S./Mexico border to Cape Mendocino • Several others surveys cover northern regions (NWFSC), data are pooled for rockfish recruitment indices and other analyses, but not included here (shorter time series). From 1983 through 2008 all cruises were on the R/V David Starr Jordan, Midwater trawling conducted at night, since then have used 5 different vessels typically 30 m HR depth, using a modified (including Ocean Starr, former DSJ) Cobb trawl with 3/8” codend liner Rockfish and other species are sorted, measured and enumerated at sea In addition to quantifying juvenile rockfish and other micronekton, research plan includes a suite of physical and biological observations
34.0
33.8
33.6
33.4
33.2 Salinity [o/oo]
33.0
32.8 shelf shelf 2005 shelf 2006 slope slope 2005 slope 2006 oceanic oceanic 2005 oceanic 2006 32.6 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 Temperature [oC] Physical Oceanography (CTD and Fluorometry), Acoustic estimates of abundance and upwards of 300 casts per year, data online distribution of krill and other micronekton
Sampling on adult rockfish and jumbo Seabird and marine mammal transects squid for life history and food habit studies during daylight hours (data back to 1987) The LA Times knows the difference … So what is the deal with ENSO and sea surface temperatures in the California Current?
Impending “strongest El Niño ever” “El Niño’s of the century” preceded ~9mos by the CCS warming! CCS warming, yes
moderate El Niños NINO3 (5S-5N 150-90W) California Current (U.S. west coast to 500km) mixed story in CCS NOAA/NCEP OISST v.2
Graphic courtesy of Paul Fielder, Marine Mammal and Turtle Division, SWFSC
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 May 1 (survey start)
Southern California has been anomalously warm since 2014, with lower than average upwelling winds, but the real spike in SSTs came after our survey concluded. (updates from I. Schroeder, climatology 1982-2015)
9 May 1 (survey start)
Central California was very slightly cooler than average at the start of the survey, but that cool period was sandwiched between very warm anomalies! Upwelling was generally about average (updates from I. Schroeder, climatology 1982-2015)
10 Physical conditions analyzed from CTD casts include temperature, salinity, depth of the 26.1 isopycnal and stratification- in 2015 the core area physical properties were not terribly anomalous, although conditions were more El Nino-like in the Southern California Bight (core area figures updated from Santora et al. 2014) 2015 catches were bizzare!! We had record catches of YOY rockfish and some other YOY groundfish, high to record catches of gelatinous organisms (salps, pyrosomes, etc.), and record catches of what have previously considered to be “El Nino” or subtropical water mass species (pelagic red crabs, lobster phyllosoma, a suite of never observed before were collected such as the slender snipefish, smalleye squaretails, pelagic stingray and the greater argonaut) 5 1.5 YOY rockfish Adult Pacific sardine 4 1.0 3
2 0.5 1
0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 5 3 YOY Pacific hake Adult northern anchovy 4 2 3
2 1
1
0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1.4 5 YOY Pacific sanddab YOY Pacific sardine 1.2 4 1.0 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean
3 catch log-transformed Mean 0.8 0.6 2 0.4 1 0.2
0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 4 6 Market squid YOY northern anchovy 5 3
4 North 2 Core 3 South
2 North Core 1 1 South
0 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Year
13 2.5 Juvenile rockfish 2.5 Market squid
1.5 1.5
0.5 0.5
anomaly -0.5 anomaly -0.5
core -1.5 -1.5 north south -2.5 -2.5 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2.5 Euphausiids 2.5 Juvenile Pacific sanddabs
1.5 1.5
0.5 0.5 anomaly -0.5 anomaly -0.5
-1.5 -1.5
-2.5 -2.5 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2.5 Pacific sardine 2.5 Northern anchovy
1.5 1.5
0.5 0.5
anomaly -0.5 anomaly -0.5
-1.5 -1.5
-2.5 -2.5 1992 1996 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 1990 1994 1998
14 Young-of-the-year rockfish
4 Shortbelly rockfish 0.8 YOY cowcod 3
0.6 2
0.4 1
0 0.2
0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
3 Chilipepper 0.8 YOY blackgill rockfish Most at high, many at record
0.6 2 high levels (left)- continuing a 0.4 1 run of several strong years 0.2
0 0.0 beginning in 2013- the 2013 year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2.5 0.4 Widow rockfish YOY darkblotched rockfish class already present in survey 2.0 0.3 1.5 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean and fishery length and age data. Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.5
0.0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2.5 1.4 Canary rockfish North YOY copper rockfish complex 1.2 2.0 Core 1.0 South 1.5 0.8 North 0.6 1.0 Core South 0.4 0.5 0.2
0.0 0.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year Year
15 Standardized anomalies from Delta-GLM year effects for the ten most abundant species in the core area and updated PC1 from PCA (update of Ralston et al. 2013)
3 Brown Widow Yellowtail Chilipepper Squarespot Shortbelly Blue Bocaccio Canary Stripetail PC1 2
1
0
-1 StandardizedAnomalies -2
-3 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Major El Niño Events Low productivity in Central California 9 8 North Salps Gelatinous macrozooplankton 7 Core 6 South 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
6 North Pyrosoma 5 Core South 4
3
2
1
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 4 North Thetys 3 Core South
2 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean
1
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
1.6 North 1.4 Carinaria Core 1.2 South 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year
11/12/2015 17 Pelagic red crabs Warm water micronekton 3
2
1
0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0.4 Phyllosoma
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1.0 King-of-the-salmon 0.8
0.6 Mean log-transformed catch log-transformed Mean
0.4
0.2
0.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1.8 1.6 Phronima 1.4 1.2
1.0 North 0.8 Core 0.6 South 0.4 0.2 0.0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Year
18 0.35 Subtropical krill species- %FO
0.3 Core area Krill 0.25 Southern California Bight Although time series rather 0.2 short, a much greater
0.15 frequency of occurrence of
0.1 subtropical species in 2015 (Nyctiphanes simplex, 0.05 Euphausia mutica, E. eximia,). 0 2001 2006 2011 2016
Nyctiphanes simplex Euphausia eximia Images from Scripps Institute of Oceanography Zooplankton Guide- https://scripps.ucsd.edu/zooplanktonguide/order/507
19 12 Central California E. PACIFICA Cosmopolitan
10 T. SPINIFERA Cold water, coastal N. DIFFICILIS Transition-cool 8 T. GREGARIA E. RECURVA 6 Transition-warm E. GIBBOIDES log log + (catch 1) 4 N. SIMPLEX Subtropical E. EXIMIA 2 E. MUTICA 0 All Euphausia In past, the incursion of warm water 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 species was often associated with Southern California Bight declines in the abundance of the more 12 E. PACIFICA T. SPINIFERA abundant species (E. Pac and T. spin)- but 10 N. DIFFICILIS this not as true in 2015, at least in the core 8 T. GREGARIA survey area (low in south, but doesn’t E. RECURVA 6 seem to be quite as relatively low as E. GIBBOIDES previous events based on Brinton and 4 N. SIMPLEX Townsend 2003). average log (catch + 1) 1) + (catch log average E. EXIMIA 2 E. MUTICA 0 All Euphausia Note that 2014 and 2015 numbers still 1986 1996 2006 2016 preliminary (10 ml subsample)
20 Spatial distribution patterns of key micronekton
Climatology 2015 Climatology 2015
Salps Rockfish
Climatology 2015 Climatology 2015
Pyrosomes Krill Salp and Pyrosome abundance greatest offshore and at southern end of survey area, similar pattern with krill (positive spatial correlation not typical of most years)
“The Midwater Trawl Assemblage” Twenty Taxa Occur in ≥ 10% of All Core area midwater trawls
Ontogenetic Frequency of Rank Common Name Scientific Name Stage Abbreviation Occurrence 1. krill Euphausiacea U krill 0.862 2. rockfish Sebastes spp. Y rock 0.719 3. speckeled sanddab Citharichthys stigmaeus Y sdab 0.613 4. Pacific sanddab Citharichthys sordidus Y pdab 0.573 5. Pacific hake Merluccius productus Y hakeY 0.561 6. market squid Doryteuthis opalescens U dory 0.489 7. lanternfish Mycthophidae U myct 0.343 8. octopus Octopoda U octo 0.268 9. pelagic shrimp Sergestidae U serg 0.252 10. California smoothtongue Leuroglossus stilbius U leur 0.226 11. Pacific hake Merluccius productus A hakeA 0.225 12. northern anchovy Engraulis mordax A anch 0.206 13. rex sole Glyptocephalus zachirus Y rex 0.191 14. California headlightfish Diaphus theta U diaph 0.173 15. plainfin midshipman Porichthys notatus U por 0.173 16. blue lanternfish Tarletonbeania crenularis U tarl 0.167 17. lingcod Ophiodon elongatus Y ling 0.165 18. goby Gobiidae U goby 0.152 19. Pacific sardine Sardinops sagax A sard 0.148 20. deep-sea smelt Bathylagidae U bath 0.144
Updated from Ralston et al. 2015 rock sdab pdab YOY haky groundfish oct ling rex lol The Dominant Signal krill Distinguishes Two por Alternative States haka s mth serg goby bathy Scattering myct Layer & diaph Clupeoids tarl anch sard Proportion Cumulative PC Eigenvalue Variance Variance -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 1 5.73 29% 29% 2 3.93 20% 48% Loading on MWT Assemblage PC-1 3 2.44 12% 61% As with the rockfish index, local sea level anomalies are related to the species composition of the forage community
YOY groundfish
R = -0.50 P = 0.015
clupeoids equatorward, poleward, etc. offshore onshore Basin-Scale processes are also important myctophids, sergestids
R = 0.83 P < 0.0001
krill, adult hake southern shift northern shift Generally high Generally poor productivity years rockfish, salmon, (rockfish, seabirds, seabird years other species).
Strongly loading positive years on PC1 tend to be good recruitment years for rockfish and other groundfish, often with high seabird reproductive success, while strong negative loadings tend to be low productivity years for those same species. 25 Shelf Species Richness Index Oceanic 20 Monterey Bay 15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2 Shelf Diversity Index (Shannon-Weiner) Oceanic 1.5 Monterey Bay
1
0.5
0 1993 1994 1995 1996 2001 2002 2003 2008 2009 2010 2015 1990 1991 1992 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 Indices of species richness and biodiversity-
Record high levels of both observed in 2015! Work in progress as part of a Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON) effort. Although many things were abundant, Photo: C.Field, Marine Mammal Center forage base was either different or toxic for many predators-. Lots of predation on atypical prey (salps, red crabs, king-of-the-salmon) by fishes, while declines in coastal pelagic species seems to be contributing to impacts on higher TL predators (over 80 stranded yearling Guadalupe fur seals, record number of California sea lion pups, with an earlier start to strandings) Major fisheries closures (Dungeness crab, razor clam) in response to massive toxic algae (Pseudo-nitzschia) bloom, which is also implicated in record numbers of whale strandings and deaths. Photo: Cherisa Friedlander, NOAA Photo: Fisheries Research Division Summary
• Through sampling of past ENSO cycles, some predictable changes (and declines) are often observed, associated with a shift from equatorward to poleward transport, but despite the strong warming, impacts on productivity and abundance were not observed in 2014-15 • Instead, signature El Nino species were present along with a convergence of northern, southern, nearshore and offshore species- all at high abundance • Some climate change predictions are for a northward shift in the distribution of upwelling centers (Rykaczewski et al. 2015), which could lead to greater declines in upwelling and productivity in the Southern California Current • If so, 2015 food web might be a harbinger of what is to come- a complex mix of communities and food webs. This might increase diversity, but what will it do to ecosystem structure, function and productivity?? A Sophie Webb original design.