Middlesbrough Retail Study Middlesbrough Council Final Report August 2016 WYG Planning Quay West at MediaCityUK Trafford Wharf Road Trafford Park Manchester M17 1HH creative minds safe hands www.wyg.com Middlesbrough Retail Study Document Control Project: Middlesbrough Retail Study Client: Middlesbrough Council Job Number: A092552 File Origin: WYG Planning and Environment creative minds safe hands Middlesbrough Retail Study Contents Page 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 4 2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends ................................................................................................ 7 3.0 Planning Policy Context .................................................................................................................. 7 4.0 Original Market Research ................................................................................................................ 31 5.0 Health Check Assessments.............................................................................................................. 59 6.0 Population and Expenditure ............................................................................................................ 59 7.0 Retail Capacity in Middlesbrough ..................................................................................................... 91 8.0 Future Retail Strategy and Recommendations .................................................................................. 115 Appendix 1: Map of Study Area and Zones Appendix 2: Household Survey Results Appendix 3: Town and District Centre Health Check Assessments Appendix 4: Local and Neighbourhood Centre Health Check Assessments Appendix 5: Spatial Distribution Plan Appendix 6: Quantitative Capacity Assessment (Experian Population Figures) Appendix 7: Quantitative Capacity Assessment (Population Growth Scenario) Appendix 8: Existing Foodstores Plan Appendix 9: Walking Catchment Accessibility Plans WYG Planning and Environment creative minds safe hands 1.0 Introduction Instruction 1.01 WYG Planning (hereafter referred to as ‘WYG’) was commissioned by Middlesbrough Council (‘the Council’) in January 2016 to undertake a Retail Study covering the Borough of Middlesbrough and the surrounding hinterlands. 1.02 The most recent comprehensive Middlesbrough Retail Study was prepared in 2005 to support the Middlesbrough LDF Core Strategy and the Regeneration DPD. In addition, a joint study with the neighbouring authority Stockton was prepared in 2008 and a further update was undertaken in 2013. It is important to note however, that the most up-to-date household survey was undertaken in June and July of 2007, and therefore the latest empirical evidence is now considerably out of date. The 2013 Update Study utilised the 2007 household survey results. All of the studies were prepared for the Council by WYG and/or NLP. We understand that NLP is also underway with producing a new Retail Study for Stockton Council, which also uses new household survey results. The two Councils will therefore ensure that the overall findings and recommendations are discussed and shared. 1.03 The brief provided to WYG in relation to this Retail Study, set out the aims of the study as follows: • To provide guidance on retail policies to be included within the Local Plan; • To provide guidance on the retail hierarchy of centres and the order of centres within the hierarchy; • To identify any quantitative and qualitative need for new retail development; • To provide guidance on potential locations for any retail development, and the scale of such development; • To identify potential benefits of any retail development; and • To provide guidance on the potential to amend the town centre and retail sector boundaries. 1.04 A key purpose of this Study is to provide an assessment of retail needs and capacity in the Middlesbrough Local Plan period to 2031, through the identification of existing shopping patterns and a review of the current performance of the defined centres in the administrative area. 4 Middlesbrough Council A092552 09/09/2016 1.05 As such, the Study provides recommendations in respect to the Council’s future strategy for the Middlesbrough town centre, the two District Centres, 11 medium-scale Local Centres, 10 small-scale Local Centres and 6 Neighbourhood Centres, to help safeguard their future vitality and viability, and it will assist in bringing forward the redevelopment of key town centre sites. 1.06 The Study will act as the evidence base to assist in the formulation of future development plan policy, in particular the Middlesbrough Local Plan which is intended to replace the existing LDF Core Strategy (2007) and Regeneration DPD (2008). The Study also provides baseline information to assist in the determination of planning applications for retail development. 1.07 The Study draws upon new empirical research, with NEMS Market Research Limited (NEMS) undertaking telephone surveys of 1,600 households within the defined Study Area in February 2016. The Study Area for the household survey comprises 11 zones which are based on postcode sectors grouped to reflect areas which are likely to exhibit similar patterns of shopping behaviour. The Study draws upon the most recent Experian Micromarketer G3 population and expenditure data (published October 2015) in order to establish the up-to-date position with regard to both convenience and comparison goods capacity. 1.08 Furthermore, the Study provides an assessment of retail patterns and trends, and any changes which have taken place to these patterns since the previous household survey was undertaken in 2007. The Study considers the role of the each of the defined centres within Middlesbrough and the influence of out of centre development and other retail destinations outside the administrative area. 1.09 Further to the assessment of shopping patterns, the vitality and viability of centres, population and expenditure, and retail capacity, the Study then concludes by advising on an appropriate future retail strategy for Middlesbrough. Structure of Report 1.10 Our report is structured as follows: Section 2 provides a context for the Retail Study by providing an analysis of key retail trends; Section 3 considers the up-to-date position in respect of relevant national retail and town centre planning policy; Section 4 sets out a review of the survey research and considers changes in shopping behaviour that have occurred since the undertaking of the previous Middlesbrough Retail Study (2005), 5 Middlesbrough Council A092552 09/09/2016 Joint Middlesbrough and Stockton Study (2008) and the Middlesbrough Retail Study Update (2013); Section 5 sets out an overview of the vitality and viability of the defined centres; Section 6 identifies current and future population and expenditure levels within the Study Area; Section 7 provides our assessment of the quantitative and qualitative need for further convenience and comparison goods retail floorspace over the assessment period; and Section 8 sets out our recommendations in respect of Middlesbrough’s future retail strategy. 6 Middlesbrough Council A092552 09/09/2016 2.0 Current and Emerging Retail Trends Introduction 2.01 The retail property landscape across the UK has evolved significantly over the past 50 years, from post-war redevelopment in town centres, through to the emergence of retail warehouse parks and out-of-town regional shopping malls. For most of this period, the retail sector has experienced considerable expenditure growth, which has been attributed to a number of factors, including greater disposable income, availability of credit, new technology and a general overall increase in our standard of living. However, recent economic conditions have had a clear impact on expenditure and convenience goods spending per capita has actually reduced in recent years. The way in which goods are purchased has also altered due to the increased popularity of ‘e-tailing’, which now claims more than one in every ten pounds spent in the UK. Current Retail Picture 2.02 Colliers 1 provides information regarding recent retail trends, together with forecasts for the future of retailing in the UK. The findings confirm that there are increasing signs of growth in the retail sector in London and other key regional centres where there have been uplifts in prime rents. However, outside leading centres, as a result of changes in shopping habits, including strong online competition, consumers and retailers have become increasingly selective about their locations, resulting in diverging rental performance dependent on a centre’s position within the settlement hierarchy. As a result, mid-sized sub-regional centres outside London continue to struggle. Colliers advise that there is an oversupply of floorspace in many UK High Streets as a result of changing shopping habits and continued caution among retailers. Colliers report that falling footfall in shopping centres is likely to present a challenge in the coming years, but consider that with proactive management and a renewed focus on food, drink and leisure, that shopping centres can capitalise on the benefits of their ‘all under one roof’ offer. In terms of the market outlook, Colliers advise that economic growth is expected to continue to gain momentum and with household spending back at pre-recession levels and interest rates unlikely to rise in the short term, the favourable environment for