TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGE: CHALLENGE AND TRANSFORMATION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARAB SPRING PUBLISHED BY RICE UNIVERSITY’S BAKER INSTITUTE CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST TRAJECTORIES OF CHANGE: CHALLENGE AND TRANSFORMATION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARAB SPRING APRIL 2014 © 2014 by the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. These papers were written by researchers who participated in a Baker Institute research project. The research and views expressed are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy. Contents Foreword — The Arab Spring: Three Years On, 5 The Honorable Edward P. Djerejian Executive Summary, 7 Women as the Conduits of Change Across the Arab World: The Cases of Egypt and Tunisia, 11 Marwa Shalaby, Ph.D. The Arab Spring and Israeli-Palestinian Peace, 19 Ben Stevenson Gulf Security and the Arab Spring, 29 Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Ph.D. The Arab Spring’s Hidden Effects on the Mideast’s National Oil Companies, 35 Jim Krane From Progressive to Repressive: The Role of Social Media in the Syrian Conflict, 43 Ariana Marnicio 4 Trajectories of Change Foreword — !e Arab Spring: !ree Years On The events in the Middle East over the past three years represent a tectonic shift in the political landscape. Popular movements, initiated by no single party or faction, have demanded greater political, economic, and human rights from unresponsive governments. The overthrow of regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and the emergence of an educated, connected youth reveal the power of a new generation that will not accept the same stale social and political repression of the past. Leaders throughout the region, from Morocco to the Gulf countries, have faced these new pressures for reform and reacted to them in different ways. In sum, we are witnessing the true end of the post-colonial period of the Middle East. The role of U.S. policymakers and academics now is to understand why these momentous developments occurred, what they mean for the countries of the region and outside powers, and to articulate policies toward the Middle East that adapt to the new shape of the region. In so doing, we should be clear-eyed about the limitations of American influence to direct or even to contain events on the ground. In my view, the critical policy challenge throughout the region is to strengthen the forces of moderation and marginalize the forces of extremism. The Baker Institute’s Center for the Middle East provides policymakers, scholars, and the general public with analysis and recommendations addressing the change in societies throughout this critical region with important implications for U.S. policy and global stability. In confronting the interconnected policy challenges presented by the so-called Arab Spring, the center serves as a valuable meeting point for different academic and expert viewpoints and disciplines to discuss regional phenomena in diverse, yet related, countries and contexts. This report collects the work of the center’s researchers on the impact of the Arab Spring. Marwa Shalaby examines patterns of women’s political participation in Egypt and Tunisia. Ben Stevenson assesses the implications of the Arab Spring for Israeli-Palestinian conflict resolution. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen analyzes the policy responses of the GCC states and their connection to local, regional, and global stability. Jim Krane applies an economic perspective to study the reaction of national oil companies throughout the region to the changed political environment. Ariana Marnicio focuses on the evolving role of social media in the Syrian conflict. Within sections, the authors offer conclusions and, in some cases, potential policy recommendations for key stakeholders. The Honorable Edward P. Djerejian Founding Director, Rice University’s Baker Institute 5 3JDF6OJWFSTJUZT#BLFS*OTUJUVUFt$FOUFSGPSUIF.JEEMF&BTU 6 Trajectories of Change Executive Summary Overview On December 17, 2010, a young Tunisian street vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in front of the local municipal office in an act of defiance that catalyzed the Tunisian revolution and the end of nearly 55 years of authoritarian rule over the country. Although he was not the first person to take his own life in recent years to protest against authoritarian regimes in the Arab world, the death of Bouazizi has come to represent the beginning of the political and social transformations, the so-called Arab Spring, currently impacting the Middle East and North Africa. In the nearly three and a half years since Bouazizi’s death, an outpouring of popular mobilization across the region has toppled long-standing regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya; pushed another in Syria to the brink; and forced the monarchies in Morocco, Jordan, and the Gulf to moderate levels of unrest. However, despite these major shifts, the people in most of the region appear no closer to the goal behind many of the movements—equal opportunity within a just system. Political and religious divisions kept in check by authoritarian power have gained increased importance. Counter- revolutionary forces from the remnants of old systems call for stability above all else. The individual actions of Mohamed Bouazizi and many others have helped open the space for political expression in the Middle East, but transforming this opening into lasting change for populations long denied self-determination will require the sustained engagement of many more. This report analyzes the significance of the Arab Spring through brief assessments of its impact in five different regional contexts. The authors represent diverse areas of expertise within the Baker Institute’s Center for the Middle East and approach the uprisings and their effects through a range of socio-political, institutional, and economic perspectives. The key findings below address the implications of the Arab Spring in each of the five issue areas. Women’s Political Participation in Egypt and Tunisia t 5IF"SBC4QSJOHCSPVHIUEPXOOPUPOMZBVUPDSBUJDSFHJNFT CVUBMTPQSFWBMFOU misconceptions and cultural stereotypes in regard to women’s roles in the Middle East and North Africa region. 7 3JDF6OJWFSTJUZT#BLFS*OTUJUVUFt$FOUFSGPSUIF.JEEMF&BTU t 1BUUFSOTPGXPNFOTQPMJUJDBMNPCJMJ[BUJPOJOUIF5VOJTJBODPOUFYUIBWF been remarkably distinct from their Egyptian counterparts over the past few decades. While women in Tunisia have succeeded in securing a place in the political arena by acting as powerful agents of change, women in Egypt have continued to play a marginal role in the public sphere over the past few decades. However, the ideological as well as the political environment is now ripe for women in Egypt to play a more influential role in shaping the country’s future and to act as “moderators” of change. t 8IJMFXPNFOJO&HZQUBOE5VOJTJBIBWFBDIJFWFETVCTUBOUJWFHBJOTJOUIF newly drafted constitutions, legislative and executive bodies should gear efforts to formulate the necessary laws and institutional mechanisms in order to ensure the strict enforcement of constitutional provisions in both countries. Israeli-Palestinian Peace Negotiations t 5IF"SBC4QSJOHIBTDPNQMJDBUFEQSPTQFDUTGPS*TSBFMJ1BMFTUJOJBOQFBDFBOE created new obstacles for an agreement on key issues, including refugees, settlements, security, and Fatah-Hamas reconciliation. t 5IF"SBC4QSJOHIBTTUSFOHUIFOFEOFX*TSBFMJBOE1BMFTUJOJBONPWFNFOUT calling for economic opportunity, greater dignity, and more responsive government. However, to date these groups have not had a significant effect on the direction of the conflict. t 1PMJDZNBLFSTDBOVTFUIFDIBOHJOHSFHJPOBMFOWJSPONFOUUPSFEJSFDU*TSBFMJ Palestinian negotiations to more positive outcomes by working to stabilize neighboring countries, engaging international organizations, and encouraging greater public diplomacy efforts in support of a lasting peace deal. The GCC and Regional Security t "MUIPVHIUIF(VMGSFHJPOEJTQMBZFENBOZPGUIFTBNFDPOEJUJPOTUIBUMFEUPUIF protests in other countries, such as high youth unemployment, imbalanced labor markets, and political stagnation, the Gulf countries have remained relatively stable by increasing short-term social welfare spending. t /POFUIFMFTT JO#BISBJOBOE UPBMFTTFSFYUFOU JO0NBOHSFBUFSQPMJUJDBM activity and discussion through new forms of media and communication emphasized the potential for discontent based on rising political expectations even in the comparatively wealthy GCC countries. t 4FWFSBM($$DPVOUSJFTIBWFCFDPNFNPSFBTTFSUJWFJOUIFSFHJPO VTJOH increased capabilities and a more expansive policy intent to forge new financial and political connections to groups in the Middle East and North Africa. National Oil Companies in the Middle East t 1PMJDZSFTQPOTFTUPUIF"SBC4QSJOHDPOUSJCVUFEUPJODSFBTFESFWFOVFBOE patronage demands on the region’s national oil companies (NOCs) as a way of inhibiting political opposition. 8 Trajectories of Change t "TBSFTVMU DPNQBOJFTIBWFSBJTFEDPOUSJCVUJPOTUPTUBUFCVEHFUT JODSFBTFE the supply of fuels to meet subsidized domestic demand, and expanded hiring for nationals within NOC workforces. t 5IFTFDIBOHFTTJHOBMBSFCBMBODJOHPGQSJPSJUJFTCZTPNF/0$TBXBZGSPN increased efficiency and capital investments toward social welfare and political stability. Social Media and the Syrian Conflict t 4PDJBMNFEJBUPPMTTVDIBT5XJUUFS 'BDFCPPL BOE:PV5VCFJODSFBTJOHMZJOGPSN the international community’s understanding of the