Species Status Assessment for the Riparian Brush Rabbit (Sylvilagus Bachmani Riparius)
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Draft SSA for the riparian brush rabbit, Version 3.2 February 2020 Species Status Assessment for the Riparian Brush Rabbit (Sylvilagus bachmani riparius) February 2020, Version 3.2 Photograph by Patrick Kelly, California State University, Stanislaus 1 Draft SSA for the riparian brush rabbit, Version 3.2 February 2020 I) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report summarizes the results of the Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the riparian brush rabbit. To assess the species’ viability, we used the three conservation biology principles of resiliency, representation, and redundancy (together, the 3 Rs). These principles rely on assessing the species at an individual, population, and species level in order to determine whether the species can maintain its persistence into the future and avoid extinction by having multiple resilient populations distributed widely across its range. In order to evaluate the 3 Rs and assess riparian brush rabbit viability, we divided the current range of the species into four populations – Caswell Memorial State Park (“Caswell”), Oxbow Preserve (“Oxbow”), the San Joaquin River National Wildlife Refuge (“Refuge”), and the South Delta. The current distribution of the riparian brush rabbit is limited to southern San Joaquin County and northern Stanislaus County. The historical distribution of the species is uncertain but it presumably is many times larger than the current distribution, based on historical habitat availability. The first part of this SSA report (Chapters 2 through 5) focuses on riparian brush rabbit ecology. The species’ ecology is a compilation of the best available biological information on the species (e.g. taxonomy, life history, and habitat) and the species’ ecological needs at the individual, population, and species levels. The most important ecological needs for riparian brush rabbit individuals are dense, brushy vegetation; grasses and herbs; ecotonal edges; diversity of plants for food and shelter during the dry season; accessible flood refugia; nest sites and nesting materials; scaffolding shrubs and trees; and connectivity around open areas. The most important needs for riparian brush rabbit populations are abundance, reproduction and recruitment, survival, distribution, and large-scale connectivity. As defined by the SSA Framework, the species-level needs are resiliency, representation, and redundancy. These needs were used to assess the current and future condition of riparian brush rabbit viability. The second part of this SSA report (Chapters 6 and 7) evaluates the current condition of the species, including the significant past, current, and future influences that are affecting riparian brush rabbit resiliency, representation, and redundancy. The most important influences on the current condition of riparian brush rabbit viability include habitat loss and degradation, flooding, wildfire, drought, predation, and various conservation efforts. We then determined the current condition of the riparian brush rabbit (in terms of the 3 Rs) by assessing the past and ongoing changes associated with each individual, population, and species need. Of the four populations of riparian brush rabbit, one population has high resiliency and three populations have low resiliency. The species’ representation and redundancy are both low. The third part of this SSA (Chapter 8) forecasts the changes in species’ viability that might occur in three probable future scenarios. The scenarios were developed based on the expected shifts in environmental conditions and the potential conservation efforts that might occur over the next 40 years. Scenario 1 assumed that the current influences of stressors and conservation efforts would continue at their current rates and/or trajectories into the future. Scenario 2 assumed that stressors and conservation efforts would both increase sharply (more than current rates and/or trajectories). Scenario 3 assumed that stressors would continue at their current rates and/or trajectories and that conservation efforts would increase moderately compared to their current 2 Draft SSA for the riparian brush rabbit, Version 3.2 February 2020 rates. Under Scenario 1, one population would have high resiliency, two populations would have low resiliency, and one population either would have low resiliency or be extirpated. Under Scenario 2, two populations would have moderate resiliency, one population would have low resiliency, and one population either would have low resiliency or be extirpated. Under Scenario 3, one population would have high resiliency, two populations would have moderate resiliency, and one population would have low resiliency. In all future scenarios, the riparian brush rabbit would have low representation because the species occupies only a small portion of its former range. Population redundancy is low under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 but redundancy would increase to three resilient populations under Scenario 3. Based on the results of this SSA, the levels of stressors and of conservation efforts play important roles in determining the future viability of the riparian brush rabbit. Currently, the viability of the riparian brush rabbit is very low. However, with increased conservation efforts, the viability of this species has the potential to improve, even in the face of stressors that are intensifying in response to climate change. 3 Draft SSA for the riparian brush rabbit, Version 3.2 February 2020 II) TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents i) Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 2 ii) Table of Contents .................................................................................................. 4 CHAPTER 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 8 1.1 The Species Status Assessment Framework .................................................................... 8 Species Ecology .................................................................................................................................. 8 Current Species Condition .................................................................................................................. 8 Future Species Condition ................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 Resiliency, redundancy, and representation ..................................................................... 9 1.3 Viability ............................................................................................................................ 9 CHAPTER 2 Species Ecology .................................................................................................. 10 2.1 Physical description........................................................................................................ 10 2.2 Historical distribution ..................................................................................................... 11 2.3 Current distribution ........................................................................................................ 11 2.4 Taxonomy....................................................................................................................... 13 2.5 Habitat ............................................................................................................................ 14 2.6 Life cycle ........................................................................................................................ 14 2.7 Breeding ......................................................................................................................... 15 Mating System .................................................................................................................................. 15 Seasonal cycle .................................................................................................................................. 15 Nesting and rearing young ................................................................................................................ 18 Female reproductive rates ................................................................................................................. 18 2.8 Survival and mortality .................................................................................................... 20 2.9 Home Range ................................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER 3 Individual Needs ................................................................................................. 21 3.1 Dense, brushy vegetation ............................................................................................... 23 3.2 Grasses and herbs ........................................................................................................... 23 3.3 Ecotonal edges................................................................................................................ 24 3.4 Diversity of plants for dry season needs ........................................................................ 25 3.5 Flood refugia .................................................................................................................. 25 4 Draft SSA for the riparian brush rabbit, Version 3.2 February 2020 3.6 Nest sites and nesting materials ..................................................................................... 26 3.7 Scaffolding