Analysis of Uncertainties in Forecasts of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) from Ensemble Prediction Models
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Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall. -
The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010)
atmosphere Article The Use of a Spectral Nudging Technique to Determine the Impact of Environmental Factors on the Track of Typhoon Megi (2010) Xingliang Guo ID and Wei Zhong * Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Nanjing 211101, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 3 October 2017; Accepted: 7 December 2017; Published: 20 December 2017 Abstract: Sensitivity tests based on a spectral nudging (SN) technique are conducted to analyze the effect of large-scale environmental factors on the movement of typhoon Megi (2010). The error of simulated typhoon track is effectively reduced using SN and the impact of dynamical factors is more significant than that of thermal factors. During the initial integration and deflection period of Megi (2010), the local steering flow of the whole and lower troposphere is corrected by a direct large-scale wind adjustment, which improves track simulation. However, environmental field nudging may weaken the impacts of terrain and typhoon system development in the landfall period, resulting in large simulated track errors. Comparison of the steering flow and inner structure of the typhoon reveals that the large-scale circulation influences the speed and direction of typhoon motion by: (1) adjusting the local steering flow and (2) modifying the environmental vertical wind shear to change the location and symmetry of the inner severe convection. Keywords: spectral nudging; typhoon track; environmental factors 1. Introduction Although the forecasting accuracy of typhoon tracks has been effectively improved in recent years through observations, numerical simulations, data assimilation and studies of the physical mechanisms affecting typhoon movement [1], the accurate prediction of abnormal typhoon tracks, including their continuous changes and abrupt deflection, is still not possible [2]. -
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Analysis of the Influence of Joint Operation of Shihmen and Feitsui Reservoirs on Downstream Flood Peaks for Flood Control Chung-Min Tseng, Ming-Chang Shieh, Chao-Pin Yeh, Jun-Pin Chow, Wen Sen Lee Abstract The Tamsui River Basin covers the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area, which is the most important economic center in Taiwan. Shihmen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir are located in the upper reaches of Tamsui River, play an important role for regulate the water use and flood control in the basin. During flood events, release of floodwaters from Shihmen and Feitsui reservoirs is necessary due to excessive inflows. Since Tamsui River is a tidal river, downstream tide changes need to be considered to avoid disastrous water levels caused by released discharges and simultaneous tidal water flows into the estuary. The joint operation of the two reservoirs has an absolute impact on the safety of the river downstream. In this study, we took real typhoon events as examples, based on actual rainfalls, reservoir release and tidal changes, used a 1-D numerical river flow model to simulate the unsteady river dynamics of Tamsui River. The goal was to understand the interaction between the two reservoirs’ joint operation and the tide. The impact on water levels and flows in Tamsui River is used do draw conclusions for future flood control operations. Keywords: Joint operation for flood control, tidal river, disastrous water levels, numerical river model 1 General Introduction 1.1 Basin Overview The Tamsui River Basin is located in the northern part of Taiwan, has a length of about 159 kilometers and a drainage area of about 2,726 square kilometers. -
NICAM Predictability of the Monsoon Gyre Over The
EARLY ONLINE RELEASE This is a PDF of a manuscript that has been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication. As the article has not yet been formatted, copy edited or proofread, the final published version may be different from the early online release. This pre-publication manuscript may be downloaded, distributed and used under the provisions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license. It may be cited using the DOI below. The DOI for this manuscript is DOI:10.2151/jmsj.2019-017 J-STAGE Advance published date: December 7th, 2018 The final manuscript after publication will replace the preliminary version at the above DOI once it is available. 1 NICAM predictability of the monsoon gyre over the 2 western North Pacific during August 2016 3 4 Takuya JINNO1 5 Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Graduate School of Science, 6 The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan 7 8 Tomoki MIYAKAWA 9 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute 10 The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 11 12 and 13 Masaki SATOH 14 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute 15 The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan 16 17 18 19 20 Sep 30, 2018 21 22 23 24 25 ------------------------------------ 26 1) Corresponding author: Takuya Jinno, School of Science, 7-3-1, Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, 27 Tokyo 113-0033 JAPAN. 28 Email: [email protected] 29 Tel(domestic): 03-5841-4298 30 Abstract 31 In August 2016, a monsoon gyre persisted over the western North Pacific and was 32 associated with the genesis of multiple devastating tropical cyclones. -
38Th Conference on Radar Meteorology
38th Conference on Radar Meteorology 28 August – 1 September 2017 Swissôtel Hotel Chicago, IL 38TH CONFERENCE ON RADAR METEOROLOGY 28 AUGUST-1 SEPTEMBER 2017 SWISSÔTEL CHICAGO, IL CONNECT Conference Twitter: #AMSRadar2017 Conference Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AMSradar2017/ ORGANIZERS The 38th Conference on Radar Meteorology is organized by the AMS Radar Meteorology and hosted by the American Meteorological Society. SPONSORS Thank you to the sponsoring organizations that helped make the 38th Conference on Radar Meteorology possible: PROGRAM COMMITTEE Co-Chairs: Scott Collis, ANL, Argonne, IL and Scott Ellis, NCAR, Boulder, CO New and Emerging Radar Technology Lead: Stephen Frasier, University of Massachusetts * Vijay Venkatesh, NASA Goddard * Boon Leng Cheong, University of Oklahoma * Bradley Isom, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory * Eric Loew, NCAR EOL * Jim George, Colorado State University Radar Networks, Quality Control, Processing and Software Lead: Daniel Michelson, Environment Canada * Adrian Loftus, NASA and University of Maryland * Francesc Junyent, Colorado State Univeristy * Hidde Leijnse, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) * Joseph Hardin, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory General Information Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Hydrology Lead: Walter Petersen, NASA-MSFC * Amber Emory, NASA * David Wolff, NASA * Jian Zhang, NSSL/OU AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY Microphysical Studies with Radars Lead: Christopher Williams, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder * Daniel Dawson, Purdue University * Matthew Kumjian, Pennsylvania State University * Marcus van Lier-Walqui, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Organized Convection and Severe Phenomena Lead: Tammy Weckwerth, National Center for Atmospheric Research * Angela Rowe, University of Washington * Karen Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research * Kevin Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville * Timothy Lang, NASA * Stephen Guidmond, Univ. -
Comparison of Typhoon Locations Over Ocean Surface Observed by Various Satellite Sensors
Remote Sens. 2013, 5, 3172-3189; doi:10.3390/rs5073172 OPEN ACCESS Remote Sensing ISSN 2072-4292 www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing Article Comparison of Typhoon Locations over Ocean Surface Observed by Various Satellite Sensors Yufang Pan 1, Antony K. Liu 1,2, Shuangyan He 2,*, Jingsong Yang 1,2 and Ming-Xia He 3 1 State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Hangzhou 310012, China; E-Mails: [email protected] (Y.P.); [email protected] (J.Y.) 2 Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China; E-Mail: [email protected] 3 Ocean Remote Sensing Institute, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China; E-Mail: [email protected] * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel: +86-571-8820-8890; Fax: +86-571-8820-8891. Received: 5 May 2013; in revised form: 13 June 2013 / Accepted: 13 June 2013 / Published: 28 June 2013 Abstract: In this study, typhoon eyes have been delineated using wavelet analysis from the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of ocean surface roughness and from the warm area at the cloud top in the infrared (IR) images, respectively. Envisat SAR imagery, and multi-functional transport satellite (MTSAT) and Feng Yun (FY)-2 Chinese meteorological satellite IR imagery were used to examine the typhoons in the western North Pacific from 2005 to 2011. Three cases of various typhoons in different years, locations, and conditions have been used to compare the typhoon eyes derived from SAR (on the ocean surface) with IR (at the cloud-top level) images. -
Drop Size Distribution Characteristics of Seven Typhoons in China
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres RESEARCH ARTICLE Drop Size Distribution Characteristics of Seven 10.1029/2017JD027950 Typhoons in China Key Points: Long Wen1,2,3 , Kun Zhao1,2 , Gang Chen1,2, Mingjun Wang1,2 , Bowen Zhou1,2 , • Raindrops of typhoons in continental 1,2 4 5 6 China are smaller and more spherical Hao Huang , Dongming Hu , Wen-Chau Lee , and Hanfeng Hu with higher concentration than that of 1 the Pacific and Atlantic Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 2 • More accurate precipitation China, State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Joint Center for Atmospheric Radar Research, CMA/NJU, Beijing, China, estimation, raindrop size distribution, 3Xichang Satellite Launch Center, Xichang, China, 4Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou, China, and polarimetric radar parameters are 5Earth Observing Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA, 6Key Laboratory for obtained for typhoon rainfall • Warm rain processes dominate the Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science and formation and evolution of typhoon Technology, Nanjing, China rainfall in continental China Abstract This study is the first attempt to investigate the characteristics of the drop size distribution (DSD) and drop shape relation (DSR) of seven typhoons after making landfall in China. Four typhoons were sampled Correspondence to: K. Zhao, by a C-band polarimetric radar (CPOL) and a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) in Jiangsu Province [email protected] (East China) while three typhoons were sampled by two 2DVDs in Guangdong Province (south China). Although the DSD and DSR are different in individual typhoons, the computed DSD parameters in these two μ Λ Citation: groups of typhoons possess similar characteristics. -
Member Report (2016)
MEMBER REPORT (2016) ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 11th Integrated Workshop China MERANTI (1614) October 24-28, 2016 Cebu, Philippines Contents I. Review of Tropical Cyclones Which Have Affected/Impacted Members since the Previous Session 1.1 Meteorological and hydrological assessment ....................................................................................... 1 1.2 Socio-economic assessment ................................................................................................................ 13 1.3 Regional cooperation assessment ....................................................................................................... 15 II. SUMMARY OF KEY RESULT AREAS Typhoon forecast, prediction and research 2.1 Typhoon forecasting technique .......................................................................................................... 20 2.2 Typhoon numerical modeling and data assimilation .......................................................................... 21 2.3 Typhoon research ................................................................................................................................ 23 2.4 Journal of tropical cyclone research and review ................................................................................. 25 Typhoon observation, satellite application and data broadcasting 2.5 Ocean observing system and observation experiments ..................................................................... 26 2.6 GF-4 satellite applied in typhoon monitoring .................................................................................... -
Appendix 3 Selection of Candidate Cities for Demonstration Project
Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Final Report APPENDIX 3 SELECTION OF CANDIDATE CITIES FOR DEMONSTRATION PROJECT Table A3-1 Long List Cities (No.1-No.62: “abc” city name order) Source: JICA Project Team NIPPON KOEI CO.,LTD. PAC ET C ORP. EIGHT-JAPAN ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS INC. A3-1 Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Final Report Table A3-2 Long List Cities (No.63-No.124: “abc” city name order) Source: JICA Project Team NIPPON KOEI CO.,LTD. PAC ET C ORP. EIGHT-JAPAN ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS INC. A3-2 Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Final Report Table A3-3 Long List Cities (No.125-No.186: “abc” city name order) Source: JICA Project Team NIPPON KOEI CO.,LTD. PAC ET C ORP. EIGHT-JAPAN ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS INC. A3-3 Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Final Report Table A3-4 Long List Cities (No.187-No.248: “abc” city name order) Source: JICA Project Team NIPPON KOEI CO.,LTD. PAC ET C ORP. EIGHT-JAPAN ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS INC. A3-4 Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Final Report Table A3-5 Long List Cities (No.249-No.310: “abc” city name order) Source: JICA Project Team NIPPON KOEI CO.,LTD. PAC ET C ORP. EIGHT-JAPAN ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS INC. A3-5 Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Final Report Table A3-6 Long List Cities (No.311-No.372: “abc” city name order) Source: JICA Project Team NIPPON KOEI CO.,LTD. PAC ET C ORP. -
A Simulation Study on the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010) in Vertical Wind Shear
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS Atmos. Sci. Let. 17: 630–638 (2016) Published online 11 November 2016 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/asl.713 A simulation study on the rapid intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010) in vertical wind shear , , Mengxia Li,1 Fan Ping,1 2 * Jun Chen1 and Liren Xu3 1School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China 2Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China 3Beijing Institute of Applied Meteorology, Beijing, China *Correspondence to: Abstract F. Ping, School of Geography and The improved Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate Typhoon Megi, Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science which experienced rapid intensification (RI) and gradual intensification processes. The model and Technology, No. 219, Ningliu reproduced the typhoon track and intensity in accordance with the best-track observations. Rd, Pukou District, Nanjing Our study has shown that in small or moderate shear environments, the great latent heat 210044, China. released in the upper troposphere through the enhancement of convective bursts, which E-mail: [email protected] enhanced the upper-level warm core and caused the intensification of typhoon. During the onset of RI, strong convective cells were found gathering in downshear eyewall quadrant or the left side of shear. They also indicated an asymmetric structure in the eyewall. As Megi intensified rapidly, the strong convective activity occurred both in upshear and downshear Received: 12 June 2016 quadrants, then the symmetrical structures developed well. Revised: 3 October 2016 Accepted: 5 October 2016 Keywords: rapid intensification; typhoon; vertical wind shear; convective burst 1. -
(2004) and Yagi (2006) Using Four Methods
1394 WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 27 Determining the Extratropical Transition Onset and Completion Times of Typhoons Mindulle (2004) and Yagi (2006) Using Four Methods QIAN WANG Ocean University of China, Qingdao, and Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China QINGQING LI Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China GANG FU Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Key Laboratory of Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction and Climate in Universities of Shandong, and Department of Marine Meteorology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China (Manuscript received 5 December 2011, in final form 21 July 2012) ABSTRACT Four methods for determining the extratropical transition (ET) onset and completion times of Typhoons Mindulle (2004) and Yagi (2006) were compared using four numerically analyzed datasets. The open-wave and scalar frontogenesis parameter methods failed to smoothly and consistently determine the ET completion from the four data sources, because some dependent factors associated with these two methods significantly impacted the results. Although the cyclone phase space technique succeeded in determining the ET onset and completion times, the ET onset and completion times of Yagi identified by this method exhibited a large distinction across the datasets, agreeing with prior studies. The isentropic potential vorticity method was also able to identify the ET onset times of both Mindulle and Yagi using all the datasets, whereas the ET onset time of Yagi determined by such a method differed markedly from that by the cyclone phase space technique, which may create forecast uncertainty. 1. Introduction period due to the complex interaction between the cy- clone and the midlatitude systems. -
Real-Time Rainfall Forecasts Based on Radar Reflectivity During
sensors Article Real-Time Rainfall Forecasts Based on Radar Reflectivity during Typhoons: Case Study in Southeastern Taiwan Chih-Chiang Wei * and Chen-Chia Hsu Department of Marine Environmental Informatics & Center of Excellence for Ocean Engineering, National Taiwan Ocean University, Keelung 20224, Taiwan; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: This study developed a real-time rainfall forecasting system that can predict rainfall in a particular area a few hours before a typhoon’s arrival. The reflectivity of nine elevation angles obtained from the volume coverage pattern 21 Doppler radar scanning strategy and ground-weather data of a specific area were used for accurate rainfall prediction. During rainfall prediction and analysis, rainfall retrievals were first performed to select the optimal radar scanning elevation angle for rainfall prediction at the current time. Subsequently, forecasting models were established using a single reflectivity and all elevation angles (10 prediction submodels in total) to jointly predict real-time rainfall and determine the optimal predicted values. This study was conducted in southeastern Taiwan and included three onshore weather stations (Chenggong, Taitung, and Dawu) and one offshore weather station (Lanyu). Radar reflectivities were collected from Hualien weather surveillance radar. The data for a total of 14 typhoons that affected the study area in 2008–2017 were collected. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) neural network was used to establish the forecasting model, and extreme gradient boosting and multiple linear regression were used as the benchmarks. Typhoons Nepartak, Meranti, and Megi were selected for simulation. The results revealed that the Citation: Wei, C.-C.; Hsu, C.-C.