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Dangerous Climate Change Through an SEE COMMENTARY Update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘Reasons for Concern’’

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Dangerous Climate Change Through an SEE COMMENTARY Update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘Reasons for Concern’’ Assessing dangerous climate change through an SEE COMMENTARY update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ‘‘reasons for concern’’ Joel B. Smitha,1, Stephen H. Schneiderb,c,1, Michael Oppenheimerd, Gary W. Yohee, William Haref, Michael D. Mastrandreac, Anand Patwardhang, Ian Burtonh, Jan Corfee-Morloti, Chris H. D. Magadzaj, Hans-Martin Fu¨ sself, A. Barrie Pittockk, Atiq Rahmanl, Avelino Suarezm, and Jean-Pascal van Yperselen aStratus Consulting, Inc., Boulder, CO 80306-4059; bDepartment of Biology and cWoods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; dDepartment of Geosciences and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544; eDepartment of Economics, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT 06459; fPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; gShailesh J. Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay Powai, Mumbai 400076, India; hUniversity of Toronto, Toronto, ON M6J 2C1 Canada; iOrganisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 75776 Paris Cedex 16, France; jDepartment of Biological Sciences, University Lake Kariba Research Station, Harare, Zimbabwe; kCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale 3195, Australia; lBangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies, Dhaka, 1212 Bangladesh; mInstitute of Ecology and Systematic, Cuba Environmental Agency, 10800 Havana, Cuba; and nInstitut d’Astronomie et de Ge´ophysique Georges Lemaıˆtre,Universite´Catholique de Louvain, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Contributed by Stephen H. Schneider, December 9, 2008 (sent for review March 18, 2008) Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate trayed in what has come to be called the ‘‘burning embers Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ diagram’’; the image was also included in the Summary for Policy convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signa- Makers of the contribution of Working Group II to the TAR and tory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the highlighted in the Synthesis Report. atmosphere at a level that ‘‘would prevent dangerous anthropo- In presenting the ‘‘embers’’ in the TAR, IPCC authors did not genic interference (DAI) with the climate system.’’ In an effort to assess whether any single RFC was more important than any provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be other; nor, as they noted, did they conclude what level of impact considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy- ‘‘reasons for concern’’ (RFCs). Relationships between various im- prescriptive. The ‘‘embers’’ were designed primarily to commu- pacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temper- nicate the associations of impacts with increases in GMT and ature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the facilitate examination of the underlying evidence for use by ‘‘burning embers diagram.’’ In presenting the ‘‘embers’’ in the TAR, decision-makers contemplating responses to these concerns. IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) states that ‘‘the important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of ‘reasons for concern’ identified in the TAR remain a viable impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases framework for assessing key vulnerabilities’’ (2). In this article, would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy we revise sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT, based prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001.* Further- the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. more, our judgments are supported by a more thorough under- This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the standing of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, past 8 years,† as well as a more careful articulation of the criteria including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assess- by which any specific vulnerability can be labeled ‘‘key,’’ and thus ment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since contribute to a reason for concern (3).‡ AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases Section 1 defines and reviews the RFCs and ‘‘burning embers’’ in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial figure as presented in the IPCC TAR. Section 2 presents the consequences in the framework of the 5 ‘‘reasons for concern.’’ ͉ ͉ Article 2 UNFCCC climate change impacts Author contributions: J.B.S., S.H.S., M.O., G.W.Y., W.H., M.D.M., A.P., I.B., J.C.-M., C.H.D.M., H.-M.F., A.B.P., A.R., A.S., and J.-P.v.Y. performed research; and J.B.S., S.H.S., M.O., G.W.Y., W.H., M.D.M., A.P., I.B., J.C.-M., C.H.D.M., H.-M.F., A.B.P., A.R., A.S., and J.-P.v.Y. wrote the rticle 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on paper. AClimate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations to Conflict of interest statement: The authors declare no conflict of interest. stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that ‘‘would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interfer- Freely available online through the PNAS open access option. ence (DAI) with the climate system.’’ The UNFCCC also See Commentary on page 4065. highlights 3 broad metrics with which decision-makers are to 1To whom correspondence may be addressed. E-mail: [email protected] or assess the pace of progress toward this goal: allow ‘‘ecosystems [email protected]. SCIENCES to adapt naturally to climate change,’’ ensure that ‘‘food pro- *These judgments were vetted by 3 rounds of IPCC review and were approved in the Summary for Policymakers of both the AR4 Working Group 2 and Synthesis Reports by the ENVIRONMENTAL duction is not threatened,’’ and enable ‘‘economic development IPCC Plenary. to proceed in a sustainable manner.’’ In an effort to provide †Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which geophysical, biological and socioeco- some insight into impacts that might be considered DAI, authors nomic systems are susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse impacts of climate change. of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmen- ‡The criteria are: (i) magnitude of impacts; (ii) timing of impacts; (iii) persistence and tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 ‘‘reasons for reversibility of impacts; (iv) potential for adaptation; (v) distributional aspects of impacts concern’’ (RFCs) in (1). Each RFC categorizes impacts of a and vulnerabilities; (vi) likelihood (estimates of uncertainty) of impacts and vulnerabilities similar type, providing a set of metrics reflecting severity of risk. and confidence in those estimates; and (vii) importance of the system(s) at risk. IPCC authors applied only the first 6 criteria in its assessment, because ‘‘importance’’ is really a Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC subjective judgment by a potential decision-maker and thus crosses too far into the realm and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were por- of being ‘‘policy prescriptive’’; we follow the same convention. www.pnas.org͞cgi͞doi͞10.1073͞pnas.0812355106 PNAS ͉ March 17, 2009 ͉ vol. 106 ͉ no. 11 ͉ 4133–4137 Downloaded by guest on September 25, 2021 TAR (2001) Reasons For Concern Updated Reasons For Concern 5 5 Risks to Large Negative Net Higher Risks to Large Negative Net High Many Increase for Most Negative Many Increase for Most Negative Regions in All Regions in All Metrics Metrics 4 4 3 3 Future 2 2 Positive or Positive or Negative Negative Negative Market 1 Negative Market 1 for Some Impacts; for Some Impacts; Regions; Majority Regions; Majority Positive of People Positive of People Risks to for Adversely Very Risks to for Adversely 1990 (°C) above circa Temperature in Global Mean Increase Some Increase Others Affected Low Some Increase Others Affected Low 0 0 Past -0.6 -0.6 Risks to Risk of Distribution Aggregate Risks of Large Risks to Risk of Distribution Aggregate Risks of Large Unique Extreme of Impacts Impacts Scale Unique Extreme of Impacts Impacts Scale and Weather Discontinuities and Weather Discontinuities Threatened Events Threatened Events Systems Systems Fig. 1. Risks from climate change, by reason for concern—2001 compared with updated data. Climate change consequences are plotted against increases in global mean temperature (°C) after 1990. Each column corresponds to a specific RFC and represents additional outcomes associated with increasing global mean temperature. The color scheme represents progressively increasing levels of risk and should not be interpreted as representing ‘‘dangerous anthropogenic interference,’’ which is a value judgment. The historical period 1900 to 2000 warmed by Ϸ0.6 °C and led to some impacts. It should be noted that this figure addresses only how risks change as global mean temperature increases, not how risks might change at different rates of warming. Furthermore, it does not address when impacts might be realized, nor does it account for the effects of different development pathways on vulnerability. (A) RFCs from the IPCC TAR as described in section 1. (B) Updated RFCs derived from IPCC AR4 as supported by the discussion in section 2. (Reproduced with permission from Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Figure SPM-2. Cambridge University Press.) update of the RFCs and the ‘‘burning embers’’ figure derived exceed 5 °C by 2100. An increase in GMT Ͼ5 °C by 2100 would from the recently released IPCC AR4 and subsequent literature.
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