Make Sense of 2018 | 1

Make Sense of 2018

Fair Observer

Make Sense of 2018 | 2

Atul Singh (Founder, CEO & Editor-in-Chief) Abul-Hasanat Siddique (Co-Founder, COO & Managing Editor) Anna Pivovarchuk (Co-Founder & Deputy Managing Editor)

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International Standard Serial Number (ISSN): 2372-9112

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CONTENTS

About Fair Observer 8 Share Your Perspective 9

AFRICA

Nigeria’s Refugees Face Epidemic of Rape and Abuse 10 Abiodun Owolegbon-Raji

DRC Violence: This Time It’s Different 12 Hugo Norton

Drama in Dapchi: Another Nigerian Abduction Story 14 Oyepeju Abioye

Africa Opens Up Borders to Free Trade 16 Shigoli Shitero

Cautious Optimism for Peace in the Horn of Africa 18 Hugo Norton

ASIA PACIFIC

Should Rohingya Be Repatriated? 21 Swathi Gokulan

Shock, But Hold the Awe: Trump to Meet Kim 23 Gary Grappo

China Is Rising… and Everyone Should Take Note 26 Uri Marantz

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Mindful Approaches to Watching Crazy Rich Asians 30 Annette Wu

Fear and Loathing in Xinjiang: Ethnic Cleansing in the 21st Century 34 Sean R. Roberts

CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA

Investing in Kazakhstan Is Still a Risky Business 42 Polina Popova

India Enters the Era of Sanatan Socialism 44 Atul Singh & Manu Sharma

The Way Forward After Communal Violence in Sri Lanka 51 Amjad Saleem

Lesson from India to Make America Great Again 56 Ruyintan E. Mehta & Atul Singh

Modi and Erdogan Have More in Common than You Think 59 Kumar Ashish

EUROPE

Italy’s Migration Policy: A Dark Trade-Off on Human Rights 64 Sophia Akram

The Murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia, Six Months On 65 Rebecca Vincent

Will Trump and Macron’s Special Relationship Survive? 69 Cécile Guerin

Brexit: The Countdown Has Begun 71 Orsolya Raczova

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The People of France Want to Be Heard 73 Sophie Hunter

LATIN AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN

Brazil’s Drama of Unpredictability 79 Manuela Andreoni

Nicolás Maduro: The New Tropical Czar Has No Clothes 81 Leonardo Vivas

Mexico Has Bigger Problems than Russian Interference 85 Jamie Shenk

Meet Colombia’s New President 88 Glenn Ojeda Vega & German Peinado Delgado

Is Jair Bolsonaro the Man for Brazil? 91 Kinga Brudzińska

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

The Economy Flames Anger in Iran 94 Dina Yazdani

Can Europe Save the Iran Deal? 98 Dina Yazdani

The Role of Fear in Turkey’s Elections 101 Nathaniel Handy

Jamal Khashoggi: The Martyr Who Made Backlash Possible 104 Peter Isackson

Is the Worst Over for Libya? 111 Sherif El-Ashmawy

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NORTH AMERICA

We Need a #MeToo Moment for School Shootings 114 Ellis Cashmore

To End Gun Violence, We Need Concrete Reform 117 Kyrah Simon

Trump in Ottawa and Singapore: The World Turned Upside Down 118 Gary Grappo

Midterm Elections 2018: The War for America’s Soul 121 Atul Singh

California Wildfires: It’s Time to Tackle the Root of the Problem 124 Steve Westly

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ABOUT FAIR OBSERVER

Fair Observer is a US-based nonprofit media organization that aims to inform and educate global citizens of today and tomorrow. We publish a crowdsourced multimedia journal that provides a 360° view to help you make sense of the world. We also conduct educational and training programs for students, young professionals and business executives on subjects like journalism, geopolitics, the global economy, diversity and more.

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AFRICA of Boko Haram, she faced the same kind of sexual violence after having mustered an escape from her captors, Nigeria’s Refugees Face this time in the hands of the very Epidemic of Rape and Abuse soldiers supposed to protect her. Her Abiodun Owolegbon-Raji account of the ordeal illustrates the January 8, 2018 impunity perpetrators enjoy: “The same day I was brought there, soldiers started

coming to rape me. They did it one after Across Africa, armies and police forces another. I’m not even sure those two regularly prey on civilians, with women knew about each other.” and children enduring the worst abuse.

Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari In December 2017, The New York ordered an investigation into the alleged Times exposed its readers to a horrific rape of women and girls by security reality Nigerians have known about for forces and officials in IDP camps in years: the plight of female refugees and 2016. survivors from northeastern Nigeria who endure the deprivations of both Boko Despite his own status as a former Haram and the security forces general, President Buhari has nothing to responsible for their safety. show beyond some scattered arrests

and the (long overdue) deployment of Of course, The Times’ was only the female soldiers and police officers to the latest example of outside journalists and camps. Now, even those arrested in his human rights groups uncovering the probes have seemingly escaped epidemic of rape and sexual abuse prosecution or disciplinary action. facing Nigeria’s internally displaced women. This lack of effective oversight over the

campaign against Boko Haram has In October 2016, Human Rights Watch proved lethal. In 2015, Amnesty (HRW) documented the abuse International publicly named nine senior (including rape and exploitation) inflicted military commanders responsible for the on 43 women and girls living in seven deaths of over 7,000 men and boys and internally displaced persons (IDP) more than 1,200 extrajudicial executions camps in Maiduguri, capital of Borno since 2011. In June 2017, a military State and the epicenter of the Boko panel dismissed all charges against Haram insurgency. them, citing insufficient evidence. An

independent investigation into the Unfortunately, the story of 14-year-old allegations promised by Buhari two Falmata shows how little has been done years ago has yet to commence. to protect IDPs since HRW raised the alarm. Having escaped the horrors of captivity and repeated rape at the hands

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It may be tempting to cite Buhari’s considered to be politically motivated, ongoing health issues as an excuse for forcing him to continue his fight for a his failure to act more decisively. In democratic transition from Europe. context, however, the failure to punish sexual predators within the armed While Kabila’s opponents have forces offers yet another example of his remained resolute in their opposition to electoral promises of transparency and his continued rule, the same cannot be accountability turning out to be nothing said for the country’s internal security. more than obligatory lip service. Nigeria The political crisis has worsened sorely needs concrete reforms to instill ongoing conflicts in regions like Kasai, discipline and promote transparency in where 3 million people are at risk of civilian relations with the armed forces. starvation and 1.5 million have been Thus far, Buhari has not delivered. forced from their homes.

This may look like a primarily Nigerian The Kasai conflict has been marked by problem, but the reality is far from it. In dozens of gruesome mass graves; practically all conflict zones across the according to the United Nations, African region, armies and police forces Kabila’s army is responsible for digging regularly (if not systematically) prey on (and filling) most of them. civilians. From false promises of marriage to outright rape, vulnerable Unlike Buhari, Kabila does not bother children and women often face the worst paying lip service to transparency and abuse. the rule of law. Instead, his security forces have repeatedly attacked and Beyond Nigeria, many prominent cases killed opposition demonstrators since have come from the Democratic the start of the election crisis. It is Republic of Congo (DRC) recently, disheartening to see supposedly where embattled President Joseph democratic Nigeria perform no better Kabila is resorting to autocratic methods than the DRC’s corrupt and autocratic to extend his 17 years in power. Kabila’s regime on security or accountability term officially ended in December 2016, indexes. but he has tactically employed a combination of political repression and Even the United Nations and Western duplicity to extend it. governments like France cannot prevent sexual violence and fatal human rights These include forcing the judiciary to abuses under their watch. UN sentence Moise Katumbi, a former peacekeepers from the Republic of governor of the Katanga Province, who Congo and the DRC have been accused is widely tipped to succeed Kabila if and of sexually exploiting women and girls in when elections are held, to 36 months in the Central African Republic (CAR). absentia for selling a property illegally. From 2013 to 2014, French soldiers The charges against Katumbi are widely

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deployed to the CAR also allegedly DRC Violence: This Time It’s raped and abused multiple children. Different However, the tireless work of human Hugo Norton rights organizations, who create the March 16, 2018 transparency that African governments and their international partners do not, is Should the DRC slip back into the kind the one saving grace in the situation. of conflict that characterized the Groups like Amnesty International and previous war, the intervening years of Human Rights Watch have done much peace will become nothing more than a of the heavy lifting to expose abuses footnote in a bloody history. and violations in Africa’s conflict zones. For years now, we’ve been seeing Thankfully, their efforts do not always headlines about violence and unrest in fall on deaf ears. In the DRC, a the Democratic Republic of Congo. But landmark judgment issued in December a surge in violence over the past several 2017 has seen a sitting Congolese MP weeks suggests that this time things are and 12 members of his militia convicted different. New flare-ups of fighting of rape and crimes against humanity. across this conflict-riven state is having a profound impact on its people, with Human rights defenders and journalists thousands of Congolese forced to flee put their lives on the line to report on their homes each day to seek asylum in these issues. They need greater neighboring states. It’s estimated that support, protection, and cooperation 1.7 million people have been affected in from the governments whose jobs they the past 12 months alone, making the are doing. DRC one of the countries hardest-hit by conflict displacement in the world today. Though it seems farcical to expect Kabila to commit to the principles of Theories about the root causes of the transparency and accountability, Buhari conflict differ, but with much of the can and should be a more eager unrest due to the intransigence of partner. DRC’s controversial president, Joseph Kabila, little progress is likely. Will the UN’s declaration that the situation is Abiodun Owolegbon-Raji is a writer nearing “breaking point” help to change and blogger on political and economic the narrative, or are we looking at the affairs with a background in political run-up to the next “African World War”? science. He is a graduate of Obafemi Awolowo University in Ile-Ife, Nigeria. With each passing week the DRC death toll rises. Recent reports claim that a total of 49 people were killed in Ituri

province, during an outbreak of ethnic

violence that was attributed to

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continuing unrest between the region’s The unrest is being fueled in large part Hema and Lendu communities. The by the refusal of President Kabila to step clash happened north of the country’s down, despite having reached the end capital, in Bunia, and is the latest of his second — and ostensibly last — episode in a battle that has already term in office in December 2016. claimed 100 lives and caused 200,000 Opposition parties gained the to leave their homes. president’s agreement to hold elections at the end of 2017, but campaigning has Unrest isn’t confined to Ituri territories, been put on hold again after the however. Armed groups, including the Congolese electoral commission, CENI, Hutu extremist group FDLR (Democratic ruled that voting couldn’t take place due Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda), is to ongoing violence in the Kasai region. creating chaos between rival tribal communities in North Kivu’s Rutshuru To date, the DRC has never territory, as well as in the province of experienced a peaceful transition of South Kivu, while conflict has also power. The conflict that was initiated by erupted in the country’s central Kasai the overthrow of long-standing leader region following the assassination of an Mobuto Sese Seko in 1997 led to a anti-Kabila tribal chieftain in September brutal six-year war — nicknamed 2016. In Eastern DRC, where land and Africa’s World War — in which nine mineral resources have been sparking countries battled on Congolese soil, conflict for decades and millions have resulting in almost 6 million deaths and died since the late 1990s, dozens of the displacement of millions more. militia groups are still in operation. Presidential hopeful Moïse Katumbi is The impact of the grinding violence is the favorite to succeed Kabila and may being felt not only within the DRC, but yet bring stability back to the country, also touches the countries it borders — although his electoral ambitions have including Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and been stymied by politically motivated Angola — many of which are ill- legal charges against him. He left the equipped to cope with the mass influx of Congo in May 2016, after state refugees. While thousands of those prosecutors accused him of hiring displaced head for remote regions of the mercenaries, and has since been living DRC that are currently inaccessible to in exile in Belgium. This week, however, aid organizations, many thousands he announced a new opposition more are opting to cross Lake Albert to coalition — Ensemble pour le Uganda, where unsanitary living changement, or Together for Change – conditions await. The UN believes that and promised that he would return to the as many as 10 million Congolese need DRC by June to officially file his humanitarian aid, half of whom are candidacy for presidential elections suffering as a result of displacement. slated for December.

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Failure to hold the long-delayed neighbors into the maelstrom and set elections in December would only progress back by decades. further plunge the DRC into the abyss, considering the deep fissures and political instability that are stoking the Hugo Norton is an Africa policy analyst current conflict. and adviser at an economic consultancy firm in Brussels. He is also an aspiring It is a situation that’s not confined solely freelance writer and passionate to the DRC. Long-term conflicts are also observer of the politics and lifestyle in simmering in countries such as Somalia, Africa. Libya and Mali, while the four-year civil war in South Sudan is deepening. Rather than pitting country against Drama in Dapchi: Another country, battle lines in these disputes are increasingly drawn along caste, clan Nigerian Abduction Story or ethnic boundaries, even dividing Oyepeju Abioye speakers of different dialects in some April 2, 2018 cases. The continued abduction of schoolgirls Should the DRC slip back into the kind by Boko Haram across Nigeria raises of conflict that characterized the questions about both the government’s previous war, the intervening years of competence and its willingness to deal peace will become nothing more than a with the rebel group. footnote in a bloody history. There may be little appetite for war among On February 19, nearly four years after neighboring countries, but as rebel the abduction of schoolgirls by Boko incursions are met with a ruthless Haram in Chibok, Borno State, which government response, deaths are sparked global outrage, the rebel group already mounting — if not from acts of struck again. This time, the target was violence, then from the spread of the Government Girls Science Technical diseases such as cholera through College in Dapchi, Yobe State. The increasingly vulnerable populations. government took its time to issue a precise figure, which had the number of There is still hope that the elections missing girls at 110. Of the 276 girls planned for the end of the year may yet abducted in April 2014 in Chibok, 154 take place and that further bloodshed have either been released or escaped, can be avoided. By acting in the but 112 are still missing. interests of the nation, Kabila’s government could prevent the DRC from Dapchi had all but come to a standstill sliding into a full-blown war that would this past month. Thankfully, most of the decimate its population, draw its girls were returned by Boko Haram on March 21; five did not survive the

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kidnapping, while Leah Sharibu, a 15- behind the abductions and Boko year-old girl who refused to convert to Haram’s long-term strategy. The Islam, was still being held by the jihadist religious background of the group is group. strongly emphasized, but is it more than simply a terrorist organization? The question on the lips of many Nigerians is whether the return of the One great worry is that Boko Haram girls had been staged. Fueling these militants keep targeting schools to get suspicions are reports like the one by their hands on more girls, who are Sergeant David Bako, who claims that invariably raped and given as wives to the government paid 80 million naira the fighters. In the eventuality of their ($222,400) to execute the capture and return, as was the case with the rescued release of the girls in a bid to reinstate Chibok girls, these girls would have the faith of the people in its competence. been transformed from erstwhile Not surprisingly, the military has innocent children to young mothers. severed all ties with Bako, claiming he Some might have even fallen in love isn’t registered with the Nigerian army. with the fathers of their children. Others want nothing to do with their unwanted All along, Nigeria’s minister of offspring. Upon their return, they face information, Lai Mohammed, claimed mistrust of their loved ones, who fear little was known about the missing they might have been indoctrinated by Dapchi girls. To him, this effrontery by the group and are now carriers of the Boko Haram was an attempt to Boko Haram legacy. Whatever the case, embarrass President Muhammadu their lives will never be the same again. Buhari. As Nigerians question whether Boko Haram is a terrorist organization or The fact that these abductions happen a political tool, government authorities in poor areas far away from the worries continue to give out aliquots of of the country’s elites leaves those information about the group, creating affected by Boko Haram’s violence with confusion by changing facts and figures. no recourse to justice and further abuse.

In May 2017, the governor of Ekiti State, Yet amnesty is being advocated for Ayodele Fayose, accused the Boko Haram by some prominent government of using the release of Nigerians, including the governor of some of the Chibok girls to divert Kaduna State, Nasir el-Rufai, who attention from Buhari’s health crisis. declared that a carrot and stick Meanwhile, the population keeps approach must be used, as opposed to grappling with truths and lies about the brute force. President Buhari, who cycle of death and resurrection of Boko declared amnesty for the insurgents to Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau. be out of the question during his These inconsistencies further fuel presidential campaign, has promised to suspicions of a conspiracy theory pardon repentant members of the group.

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As of today, 30,000 have died as a Africa Opens Up Borders to result of Boko Haram violence since 2011, according to one estimate; the Free Trade governor of Borno State, Kashim Shigoli Shitero Shettina, put that figure at 100,000 in April 11, 2018 February 2017, with at least 2 million others displaced by the insurgency. By The creation of a continental free trade any standards, these statistics are grim area across the African continent poses enough to call for intensified efforts on unique conflict of interest challenges for the part of the country’s government. the signatories.

The subject of discourse also borders In March, African leaders descended on how long Nigerians will keep living in upon Kigali, Rwanda, the Land of a fear of their children, especially girls, Thousand Hills’ capital, to ink an being abducted while they engage in agreement that is meant to smoothen something as simple as going to school. the rough terrain of intra-African trade. Western education is anathema to Boko Nearly 50 years after independence Haram, whose name translates as movements swept across Africa, the “Western education is forbidden.” But continent is still struggling to find its Nigeria is not an Islamic state, and the footing. The challenges are exacerbated government is failing to protect its by both the internal makeup of the people from the infringements on countries and a shifting geopolitical freedom to life and to basic education environment. In 2014, African heads of that are being trampled upon by non- state saw a rare invite to Washington by state actors. the Obama administration to discuss trade, investment and security. This was This is not the Nigeria of our dreams, seen as a counterbalance to the and if the country is to continue as a growing Chinese influence on the whole, Boko Haram has to be continent; by 2014 China-Africa trade eradicated, once and for all. totaled $200 billion, up from approximately $100 billion during the 2008 financial crisis. Oyepeju Abioye is a doctor by day and a writer by night. She is an observer and With the chaotic and confusing nature of a documenter of life as it occurs in her the geopolitical challenges and the environment, believing that every continued courting of African countries medical case is a story and that there is by both Beijing, through the new and a story in every moment of our lives. Her ambition Belt and Road Initiative, and by pen is her most prized possession. She the Washington security gospel, Africa runs a blog and is an avid contributor at finds itself in a position where it has to African Freelancers. define its fortunes. By 2010, trade between African countries was only 11%, compared to 50% within Asia,

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21% in Latin America and Caribbean, Tanzania despite the EAC integration with Europe leading at 70% of internal process allowing free movement of trade. The picture is not of a continent goods and people across the border. that less than 130 years ago had no South Africa has been on the news artificial boundaries and where its when xenophobic hostility toward fellow people traded and migrated freely. African immigrants erupted in riots. Despite the AfCFTA, the leadership The African Union has embarked on an must be exasperated by the challenges initiative that is ambitious but also that it faces, meaning it needs to work necessary. The Africa Continental Free toward smoothing the relations and Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), signed in avoiding internal conflicts for the greater Kigali last month by 44 of the 54 African good. countries, is the first step in the journey of a thousand miles. A classical pillar of trade theory is geographical proximity and comparative As a matter of note, the two largest advantage. Africa’s huge landmass is African economies, Nigeria and South logistical nightmare. For the free trade Africa, did not participate in this historic agreement to be successful, the colonial event. This signals the internal angst of constructing transport challenges that, despite initiatives to infrastructure that is outward looking deepen integration and remove trade must be replaced by infrastructure that barriers, have been the hallmark of the connects the interior populations rather problems facing regional economic than acts as a link to ports for external communities. First, on average, each trade. Recently, there has been a African country belongs to at least two transport infrastructure boom in East trading blocs, a phenomenon that has Africa that has been fueled by the need created confusion and challenges in for accessibility to sea ports for implementing regional objectives. One extraction and export of oil and gas. example is Tanzania’s membership in both the Southern African Development Construction of ports and high-speed Community (SADC) and East African railways has been inspired by the Community (EAC). When implementing economy of extraction — the hallmark of external tariffs for the EAC, Tanzania colonialism. As a result, most of Africa’s can trade within the SADC, where it goods are raw materials. The enjoys free trade status, leading to trade comparative advantage question is one diversion from EAC countries. that is harder to answer given that similar goods are produced in many Secondly, demographic composition countries across the on the continent. and national stereotypes that lead to non-tariff barriers must be addressed According to the World Bank, sub- with honesty. There has been ongoing Saharan Africa exports in 2016 trade wars between Kenya and consisted of approximately 34% of raw

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materials. This ranges from natural challenges both internal and external to resource to food commodities, which bring the agreement to life. fuels the growing trade imbalance with the outside world. Shigoli Shitero is a Kenyan economist For intra-Africa trade to grow, there and internal controls professional at a must be a shift toward creating of financial institution. He holds a graduate indigenous industries that can provide a degree in economics from the University competitive edge in trade with the of Nairobi. His research focuses on outside world. On the global scale, economics, corruption, trade, inequality, some African countries have economic development and behavioral commitments to other countries’ trade economics. objectives.

Case in point is China’s Belt and Road Cautious Optimism for Peace Initiative. Since its inception five years ago, the ambitious Chinese foreign in the Horn of Africa policy has recruited some African states Hugo Norton like Kenya and Ethiopia, whose strategic August 6, 2018 geographical position is significant to Beijing’s objectives. This will definitely With Ethiopia and Eritrea pushing for be a challenge that these countries will peace, will Djibouti declare diplomatic have to deal with going forward, since war? the interests of the AfCFTA must supersede their national interests tied to These are heady times in the Horn of the global trade initiatives. If not Africa. A monumental rapprochement checked, the conflict of interest will be a orchestrated over the past month by hindrance in achieving the intra-trade Ethiopia’s new, reformist prime minister, objectives. Abiy Ahmed, has effectively ended the decades-long cold war between Ethiopia The African continent must be the and Eritrea. Addis Ababa and Asmara author of its own fortune rather than are pressing ahead to bridge divisions, misfortune. This is a painful medicine open embassies, develop ports and that it must take, but one that will set it resume flights between the two on a path of prosperity both as a neighbors. Ethiopians and Eritreans are powerhouse and an integral part at the calling each other at random, giddy that geopolitical negotiating table. the hatred and hostility that have been the legacy of the Eritrean War of The signing the AfCFTA is a show of Independence may finally be at an end. good faith, but the task lies in the implementation process. Member The push for peace could also prove countries need to be ready to face the lucrative for both countries.

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Reconciliation with Eritrea helps grant hopes to draw the country away from landlocked Ethiopia — a nation of 100 China, which has invested much in the million people and Africa’s seventh East African state, including $13 billion largest economy — access to new ports in loans from 2006 to 2015. America’s on the Red Sea. Abiy is currently most senior diplomat in Africa, Donald pursuing an aggressive reform agenda Yamamoto, is said to have hosted and opening up his country after a meetings behind the scenes and decades-long slide toward paranoid steered a diplomatic back channel authoritarianism. On the other side of alongside Eritrea’s allies in the Gulf, the disputed border, Eritreans hope the Saudi Arabia and the United Arab new accord will finally bring an end to Emirates. their country’s extreme poverty and inhumane system of indefinite and And then there is the one local player — compulsory “non-military service.” Djibouti, which neighbors both Ethiopia and Eritrea — that stands to lose the Peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea most from the shifting state of affairs. offers plenty of room for (cautious) Djibouti has exploited its prime territory optimism, but the events of the last between Ethiopia and the Red Sea to month represent, at best, a start. Abiy is serve as Addis Ababa’s most important trying to navigate his role as what the port. The lack of access to Eritrean ports Atlantic Council’s Bronwyn Bruton calls has meant 90% of Ethiopia’s trade an “all-around compromise candidate.” comes through the Port of Djibouti. This He still needs to deal with both symbiotic relationship goes both ways, hardliners and high expectations at with 85% of cargo traffic at the port home. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki either originating in Ethiopia or making faces challenges as well. He may have its way there. In May, Ethiopia agreed to accepted Abiy’s overtures, but he has take a stake in the port that has given no indication he is ready to give effectively been its sole point of access up the power he has maintained through to maritime commerce. brutal repression for a quarter of a century. By accepting Abiy’s olive Djibouti’s status as the gateway to branch, the 71-year-old strongman may Ethiopia has made it a magnet for struggle to justify some of his harsher Chinese investment as well, to such an policies that hinge on war footing. extent that outside observers have repeatedly warned the tiny country’s And then, of course, there is the debts to Beijing are unsustainable. question of how other powers in this Djibouti’s debt-to-GDP ratio already volatile and strategic region will try to stands at 88%, and most of this debt is influence, exploit or otherwise in Chinese hands. This “debt trap” is undermine this drive toward only growing deeper with the reconciliation. The US evidently backs construction of a Chinese-backed, $3.5- the Ethiopian premier’s agenda as it billion free trade zone in Djibouti.

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China’s outsized influence in Djibouti over their own disputed border, and has already discomfited the other Djibouti reacted angrily to a Somali plea foreign powers who rely on port access to lift UN Security Council sanctions on and military real estate there, including Eritrea and facilitate Eritrea’s re-entry America, whose only permanent military into the international community. base in Africa is in Djibouti. Earlier this year, Djibouti shocked the international The stakes of this diplomatic wrangling community by violating a 30-year could extend far beyond the borders of concession granted to the UAE-based Ethiopia’s tiny and increasingly DP World and unilaterally seizing its problematic neighbor. As the Atlantic Doraleh Container Terminal back from Council’s Kelsey Lilley explains: “At the the company. least, this tectonic shift will reduce the revenues available to [Guelleh], in On August 2, the London Court of power since 1999, and undermine his International Arbitration ruled decisively ironclad grip on the country. At worst, in the company’s favor by insisting the Djibouti could prove a spoiler, which contract between Djibouti and DP World would threaten prospects for regional was “valid and binding.” Djibouti has peace as well as longstanding US spent much of this year heatedly, if strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.” unconvincingly, denying that its actions were carried out in favor of Chinese As with any major diplomatic shift, this interests. Djibouti’s autocratic leader, new state of affairs will produce new Ismail Omar Guelleh, has profited winners and losers in one of the most immensely from Ethiopian shipping and strategic corners of Africa. For Abiy Chinese investment. His golden goose Ahmed, peace with Eritrea offers an may have run out of eggs, however. opportunity to change the lives of well Even before making up with Eritrea, over a hundred million people in two Addis Ababa had begun working countries for the better. For Guelleh, together with partners in the UAE to rapprochement between his two develop the Berbera Port in Somaliland neighbors represents an existential as an alternative option. Now that threat. As Lilley makes clear, the rest of Ethiopia is finding closer and more the region will need to watch carefully to convenient ports in Eritrea, Djibouti’s determine what he is willing to do about lucrative niche and a key source of it. annual revenue could be about to go up in smoke. Hugo Norton is an Africa policy analyst Will Djibouti scuttle the peace in and adviser at an economic consultancy response? Recent events indicate that firm in Brussels. Guelleh and his officials intend to try. The country has a longstanding diplomatic disagreement with Eritrea

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ASIA PACIFIC actors cry foul over its practice of ethnic cleansing. Meanwhile, the Rohingya remain stateless and persecuted, while Should Rohingya Be the international community has done Repatriated? little other than calling attention to their Swathi Gokulan plight. February 1, 2018 According to the bilateral agreement,

Myanmar has agreed to accept up to Citing concerns of safety and the 1,500 Rohingya each week in an possible risk of forced returns, attempt to bring back more than Bangladesh says it needs more time to 650,000 people who fled to Bangladesh prepare for the monumental logistics of following a wave of violence in August repatriation of the Rohingya refugees. 2016. The agreement does not include

refugees who left Myanmar prior to The number of Rohingya refugees 2016, thus turning away several pouring into Bangladesh from Myanmar previous waves of refugees. Despite has soared to over 800,000 as the two Myanmar’s stated willingness to start neighboring countries try to smooth a resettling the returning the Rohingya, repatriation agreement that was set to the situation on the ground paints a take effect on January 23. The different picture. The repatriation talks Bangladeshi government’s decision to between the two countries came even delay the plan to return many of the as the Rohingya continued to stream Rohingya to Myanmar comes as an into Bangladesh on a daily basis, interim sigh of relief amid heightened although in fewer numbers than in the apprehension for the UN Refugee final months of 2016. Agency, human rights groups, aid agencies and the Rohingya themselves. The recent resignation of a veteran US

diplomat from the advisory panel on the Citing concerns of safety and the Rohingya crisis following the arrests of possible risk of forced returns, two Reuters journalists covering the Bangladesh says it needs more time to issue are among many events that point prepare for the monumental logistics of toward Myanmar’s lack of cooperation in repatriation. While the two nations addressing the crisis. Further, the bicker over when to start implementing repatriation deal specifies that it would the deal, there is no talk about revising take two years to complete the “safe its terms, which in itself would facilitate and voluntary” return of the Rohingya the premature repatriation of the refugees to their homes and property, Rohingya refugees. Based on a design much of which have been destroyed in that seemed guaranteed to fail, the the ongoing violence. It remains unclear agreement as it stands only serves to how the Myanmar government plans to ease Bangladesh’s burden and enable provide the returnees with shelter, which Myanmar to save face as international

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is likely to be in “temporary” camps that Faced with squalor in the gigantic run the risk of becoming long-term, camps in Bangladesh and probable open-air detention camps. persecution if they return to Myanmar, the future looks bleak. Given the overall The agreement requires the refugees to reluctance of the Rohingya to return to present some form of proof of identity Myanmar, any pressure from and residence to return to Myanmar. But Bangladeshi authorities could make the questions of identity and citizenship them complicit in the forced return of the are at the heart of the crisis. Rendered refugees••• — a clear violation of the stateless by consecutive governments, principle of non-refoulement under the Rohingya have been denied basic international law. rights for generations, and some of them have had their identity cards seized by The UN Refugee Agency has not been Myanmar authorities. Many fled their part of the bilateral agreements either homes without carrying any documents and has, along with other aid agencies, at all. The identity-verification process been denied full humanitarian access in provided in the repatriation agreement Myanmar. The agency said in late reveals the skewed commitment of the January that “conditions in Rakhine government in Naypyidaw to take back state [where nearly all the Rohingya had refugees from Bangladesh. Having no lived] are not yet conducive to the safe guarantee of recognition of their rights and sustainable return of refugees.” Any upon return to Myanmar, the refugees mandate to facilitate the safe return of will be subject to further discrimination. refugees from Bangladesh should be overseen by UNHCR and other This brings us to the concerned voices international monitors. of the Rohingya themselves, who were not consulted at any point during the Myanmar’s neighbors should assume negotiations over the deal. One group of responsibility for sharing in the Rohingya leaders protested the protection of the Rohingya. Bangladesh repatriation plan and put forth several is the only country in the region that has demands on the Myanmar government stepped up to the crisis. Of course it had before any returns are made. These no choice, once the refugees began include granting of citizenship, arriving by the thousands. Now, finding recognition of the Rohingya ethnicity itself stretched thin, it’s understandable and the return of their land and property. that Bangladesh would see returning the Rohingya leaders have also demanded refugees to Myanmar as an attractive that the military be held accountable for option. However, you can’t share a the atrocities that led to the mass refugee crisis with a country that exodus. These demands have gone persecutes the very population you are unaddressed by the Myanmar trying to repatriate. While the real authorities as they try to push for the solution to the crisis has to be a political repatriation deal. one within Myanmar itself, nearby

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countries like India, Malaysia and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The Thailand should work with Bangladesh revelation came after briefings at the to ease its burden and exert pressure on White House for the US administration the Myanmar government. Until there’s by South Korean officials following a joint concerted effort to do so, any South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s effort to return refugees is far from being dispatch of a delegation to Pyongyang voluntary, safe and dignified. for talks with their North Korean counterparts. Those meetings resulted in the invitation from Chairman Kim for Swathi Gokulan is a graduate student the meeting between President Trump at The Fletcher School of Law and and him. Diplomacy at Tufts University, where her research focuses on forced migration No sitting US president has ever met and minority rights. She serves as with a North Korean leader. (Presidents senior editor of The Fletcher Forum of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton did but World Affairs. She has worked as only after leaving office.) The jolting journalist in India for Reuters and realization that this may now take place Scroll.in, where she covered — tentatively scheduled for May — with international politics, urban development a sitting US president who has variously and culture. She holds a BA in threatened, taunted and excoriated Kim Journalism from Sophia College for has the foreign policy intelligentsia and Women, Mumbai and a diploma in US public both flummoxed and leery, human rights law from the National Law and probably just a bit anxious. School of India University, Bangalore. Is Donald Trump — both famous and infamous for his much touted deal- Shock, But Hold the Awe: making skills, but also notorious for ignorance of complex foreign policy Trump to Meet Kim issues and lack of interest in educating Gary Grappo himself — really up to this? Let’s March 9, 2018 remember, we are talking about two leaders who have both bragged about Can the world expect substantive their nuclear weapons and threatened to achievements to come out of the use them. meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, two of the most Credit goes to South Korea’s President unpredictable leaders? Moon for recognizing and capitalizing on the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic The world can be forgiven for having games to encourage North-South been whipsawed by Washington’s dialog. Especially noteworthy is his announcement on March 8 that recognition that any such proposed talks President Donald Trump will meet with between Trump and Kim would be dead

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on arrival in Washington without the are changed, and not to the advantage North’s agreement to discuss the “d” of the US or its South Korean ally. word: denuclearization of the Korean Moreover, the North’s young and Peninsula. ruthless leader — he ordered the assassination of his half-brother and HOPING THE PAST ISN’T PRELUDE execution of family members perceived as disloyal or threatening — has Let’s return to reality. In the past, threatened to use them, including negotiations have been a tried and true against the US. Possessing these tactic of the North Koreans to extract weapons with the means to deliver them what they need from the US and the empowers Kim as never before, giving West, only to restart nuclear and missile him leverage his grandfather and father testing when they got what they wanted. could only have dreamed of. What does Invariably, their nuclear strategy he want? proceeded almost unabated. WHAT KIM JONG-UN WANTS The US and its various negotiating partners, including South Korea, China The consensus appears to be that Kim and Japan, have all had the carpet wants the US out of the Korean pulled out from under them every time Peninsula — i.e., to sever what has they’ve attempted to negotiate with been one of Washington’s most Pyongyang, including the most recent important alliances with South Korea. and short lived in early 2012. North Undoubtedly, there are other interests Korea had pledged not to launch — official recognition, economic ties satellites in exchange for US and other with the US and other major economic Western aid. The agreement was powers — besides China, which have abrogated when the North launched a taken a hit as of late due to increased satellite a few short months later to sanctions, and the opportunity to appear celebrate the centennial birthdate of the one-on-one on the world stage with the country’s founder, Kim Il-Sung. And so it leader of the world’s superpower. There has gone, dating back at least to 1993. he’ll be able to say to the American Ditto on agreements with South Korea, president, “I’ve got what you’ve got, now the UN and the International Atomic let’s talk!” Energy Agency. Can we expect this time to be any different? This is not a position that a US president has faced since the arms negotiations of The North is negotiating from a much the 1970s with the Soviet Union, which different vantage point this time. It has roughly qualified as an “equal.” Nuclear nuclear weapons. It also possesses the weapons have handed the leader of an means to deliver them, most certainly to impoverished, isolated police state the South Korea and Japan and possibly dream of every dictator: gravitas, even the US West Coast. The dynamics

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respectability and the attention of the For his part, Donald Trump places far U.S. and its president. too much stock in his innate abilities, soi-disant high-functioning gut instincts Heretofore, Kim has made clear he will and business acumen, qualities that not give up his new-found leverage… have earned him the Oval Office and the ever. This may be mere posturing, but unflagging support of a core following one must still ask: Is he really willing to within the Republican Party. He places rid his nation of its nuclear weapons, little trust in the expertise and counsel of missiles and supporting infrastructure? experts around him. That’s a further And the answer is, only if he gets what complicating risk. Luckily for Americans he wants… maybe. and South Koreans, the more sober- minded South Korean President Moon MEETING OF UNKNOWN MINDS won’t be far away, one presumes, and should help keep the American tethered. Further obfuscating an accurate reading Or at least, Americans and South of this announced gathering is the Koreans can hope. personalities of the two principals. In past summits between an American Kim, on the other hand, will face an president and his counterpart from any American president he knows only from nation, senior State Department and media reports and biased and censored National Security Council officials and information from his eager-to-please experts conducted extensive pre- intelligence service, loath to tell him meeting negotiations so that the main anything he may not wish to hear, less event would be almost a mere formality they suffer the fate of other disloyal — i.e., the handshakes, signings, minions. It’s impossible to know his banquets, toasts and photo ops. Pre- mindset in the run-up to this meeting. meetings are intended to sort out major issues, identify obstacles, reach All this suggests that despite whatever preliminary understandings and ensure happy talk emerges from this summit of the ultimate encounter between shock, concrete results may be lacking principals is a satisfactory one. But that and, in any event, suspect. It will hasn’t happened this time, presumably depend on one ineluctable fact: What is at all. on the mind of Kim Jong-un? For that, the world must place its trust and hopes Instead, these talks will be in the hands in an untested, inexperienced president, of two erratic and unpredictable leaders whose own mind remains a mystery. who are not likely to fully and accurately understand the other or the issues and implications. Nor will the issues have Gary Grappo is a former US been tackled in advance by senior ambassador and a distinguished fellow experts. That’s a risk. at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Korbel School for International

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Studies, University of Denver. He multi-polarizing world. It is not just the possesses nearly 40 years of diplomatic US, but the societies of the so-called and public policy experience in a variety developed world that need to reassess of public, private and nonprofit their modus operandi if they are to keep endeavors. As a career member of the up with China’s competing models of Senior Foreign Service of the US governance, business and society. Department of State, he served as Envoy and Head of Mission of the Office Since I spent most of March 2018 in the of the Quartet Representative, the Chinese port city of Guangzhou, a major Honorable Mr. Tony Blair, in Jerusalem. industrial hub and rapidly emerging Grappo is chairman of the Board of metropolis, my arguments and Directors at Fair Observer. supporting evidence are naturally informed by my recent experiences and first-hand observations. Guangzhou is China Is Rising… and the capital of Guangdong Province, which neighbors the South China Sea, Everyone Should Take Note Hong Kong and Macao on China’s Uri Marantz southern coastline. Growing up in May 11, 2018 Canada, I also noticed some pointed contrasts between North American and China is a force to be reckoned with. East Asian cultures and practices. In Not only should the US take notice, but arguing for greater Western awareness the rest of the developed world should of the Chinese model of development, I do too. outline some of these differences for the reader’s general interest. A recent issue of Foreign Affairs, “Letting Go: Trump, America, and the GOVERNANCE World,” questions the extent to which the United States under President China is governed by a principled but Donald Trump has abandoned its de pragmatic Communist Party. There facto post-World War II leadership of the seems to be a peculiar social contract in liberal international order. The magazine place in China: The government further prefaces its front-page cover with continues to deliver robust economic the lead, “How Washington Got China growth year after year in exchange for Wrong,” suggesting that the US is either zero dissent or public discussion of unable or unwilling to recognize the politics, religion and other topics of a emerging reality presented by China’s taboo nature. As recently as 2013, Kurt rise to great power status. M. Campbell and Ely Ratner pointed out in their Foreign Affairs article on “The The implication is that the ship of US China Reckoning” that internal grand strategy needs an immediate Communist Party memos “warned overhaul if it is to successfully navigate against ‘Western constitutional the increasingly turbulent waters of a

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democracy’ and other ‘universal values’ in the modern world. According to the as stalking-horses meant to weaken, World Bank, “GDP growth has averaged destabilize, and even break up China.” nearly 10 percent a year—the fastest This reluctance to embrace Western- sustained expansion by a major style practices and a conviction in the economy in history—and has lifted more superiority of the Chinese system was than 800 million people out of poverty.” on striking display as China was US-China trade in goods has increased changing one of its core tenets of by 30 times in 30 years (from $8 billion Communist leadership, the regular in 1986 to $578 billion in 2016, hand-over of power that has taken place accounting for inflation). While there are since Mao Zedong’s time nearly half a many reasons for China’s “economic century ago. miracle,” my arguments here will rely more on my personal anecdotes than a President Xi Jinping has enacted a laundry list of statistics. series of reforms enshrining his position for life, essentially eliminating The municipality of Guangzhou is much presidential term limits. Of course, the more modern and integrated than many local media portrayed this stunning Canadian cities I’ve visited: Vancouver, development as “democratic” since it Calgary, Toronto, even Montréal. The was supposedly in the people’s best city parks, walking plazas and urban interest to avoid “venal cliques” and centers are well-kept, imposing and “factional infighting.” It is argued that expansive. The Mall of the World, for these forces would threaten the example, is a series of interconnected existential survival of the Communist stores and restaurants that connect to Party and, in turn, the People’s Republic the subway and run through the central of China itself. Thus, the Chinese strip of downtown Guangzhou. political system was superior to the Museums, libraries and artistic West’s version of competitive electoral installations flank its southernmost tip politics since it eliminated partisanship astride a grand view of the city’s major and unpredictability, domestic and tourist attraction and one of the world’s foreign. Perhaps the Chinese tallest observation lookouts, Canton government has a point: With millions of Tower. During the day, these public Chinese residents migrating from the works reach as far as the eye can see, countryside to the city-centers every but at night, they shine and shimmer year, for decades now, the government with a dazzling array of lights and faces an uphill battle keeping the patterns, all choreographed to impress economy running smoothly. the myriad onlookers below.

BUSINESS Getting around the city is surprisingly easy and affordable. The subway China’s growth since the late 1970s has system is quick and efficient, been rapid, sustained and unparalleled intersecting the city and penetrating

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surrounding suburbs. Subway cars are stretching, popular with early morning jam-packed most hours of the day, joggers, tai chi practitioners, ancient making even the busiest rush hour in sword dancers and octogenarians Toronto’s underground feel like a etching rows of Chinese character- leisurely stroll through the park. Millions based calligraphy in the ground. of bicycles are stationed strategically around the city, owned and operated by At the risk of overgeneralizing, Chinese government-sanctioned private society seems exceedingly modest and enterprises like Ofo and Mobike. traditional. Most personal interactions Scanning a barcode with a smartphone are pleasant and respectful, even with application unlocks it remotely for a my limited grasp of the language. Still, limited time, after which riders can park all the shopping malls stock the latest them anywhere else in the city. With fashions, and the trendiest brands are today’s exchange rate, the cost of riding on display. The One-Child Policy, in the subway or renting a bicycle is effect for decades but repealed a few measured in cents, not dollars — an years ago, means that most adults are impressive discount from nearly $4 a without siblings and most families still ride for public transit in major Canadian have only one child. The growing middle cities. and upper classes may be able to afford more than one at this point. For SOCIETY instance, my Airbnb host — as a property owner, presumably already in Despite the limited exposure I had, I the upper strata of society — was found that Chinese culture has blended raising a pair of beautiful twin boys, an the past and present, tradition and alteration to conventional family modernity, together into one seamless planning that would have been web. Guangzhou, the “City of Flowers,” unthinkable just a few years ago. decorated all its roads, bike paths and pedestrian walkways with floral As a cautionary note, state-owned arrangements of all kinds. The media still run the day. The government millennia-old heritage of Confucian tells the people what to believe about civilization was evident in the sculptures their country and the outside world. on display at Sun Yat-Sen University. Flying into Beijing, Hainan Airlines The extensive foliage of the Sun Yat- provided me with a copy of the China Sen Memorial paid homage to the Daily and the Global Times, both of nationalist norms and principles which propagate the official bottom line. embodied in the postcolonial, early 20th- The Sino-centric worldview and century Republic of China. Going for a uncritical coverage of Chinese affairs jog one morning in Zhujiang Park, it was were expected. What was not expected refreshing to see the emphasis people were the progressive, almost liberal- placed on physical fitness. People of all minded stories discussed as current ages were walking, jogging and affairs: a #MeToo-style sex scandal in

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South Korea with the potential to bring mobility and economic development that down a presidential contender; the plight I witnessed in Guangzhou impressed of LGBT youth in China’s major cities me to no end. No doubt, China faces and within their own families; and the serious socioeconomic and growing social media activism of environmental challenges going forward. feminists, represented most recently by Poverty and inequality are still rife, even the use of “rice” and “bunny” emojis to in the most developed cities, and more spell the phonetic mi-tu in order to get than 1 million people are dying every around government-monitoring censors. year because of airborne pollution.

Of course, security cameras everywhere All the same, a rising China is of global and a tightly controlled online concern and interest. As the ongoing ecosystem render any public protest trade tariff dispute with the US difficult and dangerous. Virtual private demonstrates, China’s growing networks, or VPNs, are necessary to economic clout means that all countries access BBC World News, Facebook, need to take note of its foreign policy Google and many other websites ambitions. Nowhere is this more deemed unsavory by the Chinese pressing an issue than on the African authorities. In the end, the government continent, where some have already has an Orwellian ability to clamp down suggested geopolitical competition is on dissent and enforce its own version underway. It was recently revealed that of events on society if it deems it China’s freely-built African Union necessary. headquarters were bugged, recording all incoming and outgoing messages since WATCH CLOSELY first being constructed. Furthermore, China has been buying up vast tracts of China’s rising status, resources and farmland in Africa, developing urban capabilities in the world are a force to be infrastructure, disbursing competitive reckoned with that all “developed” loans, and even establishing its first countries must consider. Here I have military base in Djibouti as of 2017. merely relayed some of the more impressive and intimidating The future is uncertain for the West and characteristics of the Chinese China, but it is worth watching closely. development model that I deemed noteworthy. Without an awareness and recognition of China’s growth and Uri Marantz holds a Master of Public development, it is my contention that the Policy from the University of Michigan West will be powerless to adapt and and a Master of Arts in Political Science compete in the future. from the University of Windsor. In the past he has undertaken research For all the downsides that projects for the Hudson Institute and the authoritarianism entails, the social Foreign Policy Research Institute in the

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United States of America. He Singaporean majority is contributes regularly to journals and overrepresented, and Anglophone magazines and has published pieces on Chinese-Singaporeans have Canadian foreign policy and the new disproportionate access to resources in politics of the Middle East. a Southeast Asian country where Singaporean-Malays, South Asians, Eurasians and other racial minorities Mindful Approaches to face systemic underrepresentation in multiple aspects of daily life. Watching Crazy Rich Asians Annette Wu One must understand how different it September 19, 2018 feels to watch this film in the cultural context of Singapore, where issues of One must understand how different it socio-economic and racial inequality are feels to watch this film in the cultural finally gaining traction in wider public context of Singapore, where issues of consciousness. Though Crazy Rich socio-economic and racial inequality are Asians has emerged as a finally gaining traction in wider public conversational phenomenon, it was consciousness. preceded by another, earlier this year: Dr. Teo You Yenn’s This is What I’ve spent the last two weeks trying to Inequality Looks Like. Teo’s book is an locate myself in a cross-boundary ethnography of socio-economic conversation about Jon M. Chu’s inequality in Singapore, based on three summer blockbuster, Crazy Rich years of fieldwork with families living in Asians, based on Kevin Kwan’s rental flats and on household monthly eponymous 2013 best-seller. Much of incomes of SG$1,500 ($1,100) or less. the North American perspective on mass media points to the film as a The book brought the conversation on landmark movement toward greater inequality from academia into the Asian-American representation in mainstream, where the author got Hollywood. However, in Singapore, people to critically reconsider narrow, where both the book and the film are yet prolific narratives of a cosmopolitan, based, commentators are calling out the contemporary and prosperous irony of this statement. Singapore with stories that unpack the everyday injustices faced by her Much of the film’s focus is on the hyper interlocutors. rich, entitled East Asian characters played primarily by East Asian and ETHNOGRAPHY OF THE HIGH LIFE Eurasian actors, whereas darker skinned Asian characters appear as Though Kwan likens his book to “an scary guards, drivers, domestic workers ethnography of a culture and a species and service staff. This Sinofication of people” living highly exclusive lives, points to issues where a Chinese-

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the film adaptation of Crazy Rich Asians that Singapore is not, in fact, in China — doesn’t aim to fit its characters’ back when Singapore was nothing but experiences into larger structures of “jungle and pig farmers” they eventually society, leaving the wider historical and built up as one sprawling piece of real social context of power and privilege estate. Highlighting the centrality of unexamined. In the same way that the Singaporean-Chinese wealth in the film may have been found empowering myth of Singapore’s transformation from to underrepresented Asian-American a sleepy fishing village to modern populations in the US, it could have metropolis again obscures the nation’s really stepped up in trying to do the much more complex and pluralistic same in the Southeast Asian country the history and demography. story is actually based in. It’s important to talk of this film with Furthermore, when the focus is all on context in terms of for whom Kwan’s the film’s racial representation within a book and Cho’s film were created. Kevin US-centric context, issues of Kwan wrote his book with the intention underrepresentation, privilege and of introducing a North American inequality in Singapore are conveniently audience to a contemporary view of disregarded. Though both Kwan and “Asia,” one he felt many in the Western Chu claim to present a satirical view of world did not know existed. Similarly, their characters’ lives, the film indulges Jon M. Chu created Crazy Rich Asians viewers in so much visual wealth, it within and for the North American becomes gratifying to the extent of context — more specifically, for the placation. We start to lose some of that expansive viewer base of a powerful film intended edge to ingrained aspirational industry that has systematically capitalism that runs wild in both the US underrepresented racial minority voices and in Singapore. The city of Singapore in America. We could say that Chu’s film itself begins to reflect this as a glorified is a direct response to an industry where stage (queue tourism board product the last film with an all-Asian cast was placement, camera lingering Wayne Wang’s The Joy Luck Club 25 redundantly on the Merlion, and a years ago, whilst making full use of garishly edited shot of the Marina Bay Hollywood’s classic romcom formula for Sands) for wealthy, cosmopolitan global appeal. Anglophone-Asians who live in the Asian values households of their tiger HOLLYWOOD SYSTEM mothers. Crazy Rich Asians comes to us in 2018 Recall when Peik Lin tells Rachel that as something very different from what the Youngs were rich even when they Kwan had envisioned in 2013, when he left China to settle in Singapore — was offered a Hollywood film adaptation emphatically pointing North American of the book, contingent on rewriting audiences to a second map showing Rachel Chu (a Chinese-American

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economics professor) as a white of multiple Hollywood sequels such as woman. He saw Crazy Rich Asians as Now You See Me 2. an independent film outside of traditional Hollywood and its exclusive, often racist, But film in Hollywood remains skewed systems of production. This industry toward being made by, and made to legacy has helped to elevate white represent, white men. In 2017, the talent on screen and behind the camera, Media, Diversity and Social Change making little space for all those who are Initiative led by the University of underrepresented, even when Southern California found that out of representing characters of Asian almost 40,000 speaking or named descent. characters who had an identifiable race/ethnicity, from the 900 top fiction This was finally escalated in wider public films in the US box office from 2007 to consciousness with #OscarsSoWhite 2016, only 29.2% were Black, Asian, calling out the fact that there wasn’t a Hispanic/Latino or “other,” even though single person of color nominated in any these groups make up 38.7% of the of the lead or supporting actor population and 49% of the movie-going categories during the 2015 awards audience in the country. ceremony. The very members of the Academy of Picture Arts and Sciences The figure for women of color who are — those made responsible for represented is even lower. We can nominating films for the esteemed enlist simple tests to reveal implicit and reward — were themselves explicit biases about who is considered demographically slanted. A majority worth representing in the North were old, white men who unsurprisingly American film industry, such as the voted for the films and stories they Bechdel test (to pass, the film has to decided were most worth recognition. have at least two women in it, who talk to each other about something other In this time, it’s important to note how than a man) or the DuVernay test vocal Constance Wu (Crazy Rich devised by Mahnola Dargis, in which Asians’ own Rachel Chu) has been in “African Americans and other minorities her activism for Asian-American have fully realized lives rather than representation, and the way she grew to serve as scenery in white stories.” understand this need only after witnessing audience reactions to her FRAMEWORKS OF MEANING show, Fresh Off the Boat — the first Asian-American television show led by The effects of a voting demographic on an Asian American family in over 20 a film awards ceremony and the years. Her involvement in discourse of differences in conversation about Crazy representation influenced people like Rich Asians go to show that our Chu to recognize his own encounters with film are always responsibilities as a successful director subjective. We experience films within

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the frameworks of meaning we find support local and regional filmmakers ourselves embedded in, and we are who are in the best position and hold the limited by the contextual borders of our highest stakes in telling nuanced and realities. A 93% fresh rating on Rotten complex stories about our societies. Tomatoes depicts one reality of specifically Asian-American Crazy Rich Asians has generated so representation in a North American much buzz as a wildly fun and context, but denies the co-existent successful but underrepresentative film reality that recognizes the limits of this in Singapore. By contrast, Boo representation in a Singaporean context Junfeng’s Apprentice received — much less the rest of the vast Asian comparatively little attention surrounding continent. its sensitive and well-informed representation of Singaporean-Malay What is so special about Crazy Rich characters working in the Singapore Asians, however, is the global prison and capital punishment system. conversation that it has prompted, on Another is K. Rajagopal’s A Yellow Bird, topics informed by the current socio- which follows a Singaporean-Tamil man political climate, but also of the way who is released from prison and must people watch film, how they see and navigate reconnecting with his family, what they demand of visual culture. informal work and his friendship with a Hollywood film is a powerful global mainland Chinese woman who has export that has influenced viewing overstayed her visit pass. practices across the world, shaped cross-cultural discourses and Whilst both these films have been very manufactured viewer aspirations. We well received at international film can’t just talk about a film and its festivals, neither got the media attention, internal world of plot, character and multi-source funding or screening time twists. We must always be mindful of afforded to a film that largely uses the way a film is created as a product Singapore as a big prop. If we care and disseminated within in a larger about diverse and dignified industry with its own particular modes representation of actors, characters, and relations of production. stories and histories in film, we really need to start showing up where it makes With this, we must ultimately recognize an impact. ourselves as consumers of visual culture and, as consumers, consider whether or not we are elevating the Annette Wu graduated from Yale-NUS kinds of representative stories we say College in Singapore as a major in we want to see. As platforms for anthropology in 2017. She continues to watching films and exploring new works work at the liberal arts college, creating from emerging film industries have experiential learning programs and increased, viewers can choose to advising students on international and

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professional opportunities. She loves training” centers meant to combat watching film, thinking about the Islamic extremism in the region. concept of "culture" and deepening her awareness of gender studies. Many scholars and journalists, who have been tracking information about these internment camps for over a year, Fear and Loathing in have presented plenty of evidence that the camps are anything but voluntary. Xinjiang: Ethnic Cleansing in People are arbitrarily detained and the 21st Century placed in camps against their will, Sean R. Roberts frequently without any notification being December 17, 2018 given to their families. When husbands and wives are both interned, their What we are witnessing in Xinjiang is a children are sent to special boarding new form of ethnic cleansing that draws schools, becoming essentially wards of from all of these mass atrocities of the the state. There is no standard time past while benefiting from the period for internment, and it appears technologies of control available in the that very few of those who have spent 21st century. time in these camps have been released. Over the last two years, there has been a flurry of news coverage of the mass While the camps are allegedly meant to human rights abuses targeting Uighurs deter extremism in the region, the and other Turkic minorities in China’s diverse reasons for being interned and northwest Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous the varied population in these facilities Region (XUAR). Initially, reports belies a much broader agenda. The list documented the growing use of cutting- of criteria for internment is vast and edge technology to monitor the includes both present and past inhabitants of the region, but such behavior, alleged religiosity or stories were quickly eclipsed by the nationalist tendencies, travel abroad, evidence that the state had constructed contacts with foreigners, family scores of mass internment camps associations, the content of one’s throughout the region, which held electronic devices, the use of a Virtual hundreds of thousands of Uighurs and Proxy Network (VPN) to circumvent members of other local ethnic groups censorship while browsing the internet arbitrarily and indefinitely. and any accusation that one has suspect loyalty to the People’s Republic While Chinese authorities initially denied of China and the Communist Party. the existence of these mass internment Those interned include farmers and camps, they have since acknowledged urban workers, businessmen and their existence and characterize them as businesswomen, intellectuals and benign and voluntary “vocational cultural figures, and many members of

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the Communist Party with long histories facing a systematic effort to change their of loyal service to the state. In short, identities and perhaps even their almost anybody can be interned for consciousness. To fully understand the virtually any reason. impact of this effort on the indigenous population of this region, one must Survivors and former workers of the examine how life in the camps intersects camps have also suggested that what with that outside of them. The person I transpires inside them is anything but met gave me insight into this dynamic. benign, recounting terrifying experiences that include torture, the use In an effort to protect this person’s of mind-altering drugs on detainees and identity, I will avoid reveling his/her persistent humiliation. Beyond the most gender, place of residency both inside egregious abuses that occur in the and outside China, and profession. camps, the banal existence inside them Instead, I will refer to this person as is a source of incredible psychological “informant,” alternatively using the initial stress. All spaces in the camps are “A.” I should note that the informant with under constant surveillance by closed- whom I met had not been interned in a circuit TV cameras that are under the camp, but A did have a close constant gaze of guards in a CCTV acquaintance who taught in one camp central control room. The living quarters and had recounted that experience to A inside the camps are reportedly in detail. Furthermore, the informant is overcrowded, and inmates are poorly not an activist or involved in any way fed and limited in their ability to interact. with political groups either inside or outside of China. In fact, the informant THE INFORMANT had mentioned that the information being provided to me had only been While the atrocities that these camps shared with a few close friends for fear represent and the most egregious that it would have ramifications for A’s abuses inside them have been well family back in China. documented, there has been less analysis of what this situation means for That said, once the informant began the Uighur people as a whole inside the talking, it was difficult to stop A. It was XUAR, whether they are inside or as if it was a cathartic moment that outside the internment camps. The full allowed A to let out feelings that had scale of what is happening in this been bottled up for months in the western region of China became clear to terrifying context of what it must be like me when I recently met an Uighur who to live as a Uighur inside the XUAR had only left the region at the end of this today. Obviously, the informant’s summer. This person’s account of life in accounts provide a sample of one and the region, both inside and outside the should not be considered as camps, suggested that the Uighur demonstrative of the experience of all people and other local ethnic groups are Uighurs in the region.

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Furthermore, the quite detailed only are the detainees forced to remain description of the camp where his/her on the grounds, which are protected by acquaintance worked should not be watchtowers and barbed wire fences, considered to characterize the but each floor of the building is self- operations of each of the at least 59 contained to prevent interaction internment camps in the region. between those interned in different parts Nonetheless, as a means of providing of the camp. In doing so, the camp’s both more eyewitness accounts of the administration also makes a conscious daily life in the camps and offering an effort to ensure that relatives and understanding of the psychological acquaintances are on separate floors or impact of these camps on those Uighurs in different buildings to further isolate who are not detained in them, I felt individuals. obliged to bring this person’s account to a broader audience. I believe this I explicitly did not ask my informant account should add to the mounting about reported physical torture in the evidence of what the People’s Republic camps because I was more concerned of China is actually doing today in the with the banal ways that these Xinjiang and serve as a rebuttal to the institutions have invaded the everyday benign explanations of the Chinese life of all Uighurs in the region, both state when it denies violating Uighurs’ those inside and outside of the camps. human rights in the region. While stories of physical torture and punishment illustrate more sensationally PSYCHOLOGICAL the camps’ gross violation of human REPROGRAMMING rights, it is the terrorizing aspects of these camps’ impact on the banality of When asked what word is presently everyday life that tells us more about used by Uighurs for the mass detention their broader impact on the Uighur centers that are spread throughout the people as a whole. XUAR, my informant said “education centers” (terbiyilesh Merkezi), stressing According to the teacher with whom my that the word “vocational” is never used informant is acquainted, the daily routine to describe them. If this term was of detainees is mostly composed of favored by most Uighurs, the informant three main activities aside from meals. also noted that relatives tended to tell First, the detainees take part in the children of those taken to the camps organized physical exercise, then they either that they had gone to “university” are subjected to an extended class on or to the “hospital.” the Chinese language that takes several hours, and finally they must endure The description of the camp where A’s several hours of intense propaganda acquaintance taught painted a picture instruction about Xi Jinping Thought, the that was more like a highly fortified duties of PRC citizens, the evils of prison than a school or a hospital. Not extremism and religion more generally,

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and the identification of extremists. As a moving, appearing to be falling asleep regular part of these propaganda or fidgeting. lessons, the inmates are asked to participate in sessions of self-criticism The teachers of these classes are also where they admit their past mistakes physically detached from the students and pledge to change their ways. and are behind a fence throughout the teaching period. If they enter the actual The language classes are particularly classroom, the same loudspeaker warns surreal in that they involve many them to quickly get safely behind the students whose primary language is fenced-in area. Thus, as has also been already Chinese (Minkaohan) as well as suggested by an ethnic Kazakh teacher those who have almost no knowledge of in the camps who fled from the XUAR to the language. Frequently the instructors Kazakhstan earlier this year, life as a do not even know the language as well teacher in these camps is quite as many of the students. In this context, traumatic itself, especially if the teacher the classes cannot be very effective in is not ethnic Han, but from one of the actually teaching the Chinese language. local ethnic groups. For this reason, my Rather, the description of these classes informant noted that school directors provided by my informant sounded as if have begun regularly using threats of their goal was to symbolically convey being sent to the camps to teach as a the intent of the entire experience in the means of motivating their teaching staff camps by force-feeding them a Chinese to be more obedient pedagogues in their identity while stripping them of their present positions. own. In their sleeping quarters, the detainees The brutal setting of the classroom are placed deliberately with strangers cannot be conducive to learning and and are prohibited from socializing or appears more like an elaborate form of even speaking to each other. This is torture. The students are forced to sit once again enforced by the omnipresent perfectly still in an upright position with CCTV surveillance and loudspeakers, their hands either crossed or on their which will command detainees to refrain knees for hours on end. The intense from communicating if discovered to be pressure of sitting upright for hours on doing so, even with hand signals. In lieu end without movement has given most of talking, the detainees must stay up in detainees one of a variety of physical the evening and watch more ailments such as hemorrhoids and propaganda via a television in their cell. muscle disorders. All classrooms are A recent account of a former guard at a watched by employees of the camps on different camp notes that this constant CCTV cameras, and these hidden observation by CCTV follows the monitors quickly berate students in the inmates even into the bathrooms, which Chinese language from loudspeakers in are also installed with cameras. the classroom if they are observed

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COMPLETE ISOLATION While it is virtually impossible to understand the full impact of this The intensity of this experience environment on any of those involved, suggests an environment far worse than whether it be the detainees, the most prisons in the world. The detainees teachers or those responsible for are given almost no opportunity to controlling the environment either via communicate with each other, and with surveillance cameras and loudspeakers the exception of morning exercise or through physical enforcement — it sessions, they are forced to be produces a distortion of reality in all completely still for the majority of the cases. For the inmates, it must be day. Furthermore, while there have incredibly disorienting and traumatic, been some accounts of detainees being creating an environment that may given permission to meet with family indeed facilitate a process of gradually members over the course of their cleansing them of their identity. incarceration, testimonies also suggest that this is tightly controlled. Family For many teachers, it likely creates a members who wish to meet with dilemma of conscience as they inmates must be approved by their local participate in parading brutal means of police station and, if approved, are given indoctrination and psychological torture rare opportunities for face-to-face as a form of pedagogy. And, among contact as well as the occasional ability many security personnel, it may be to talk by phone, all of which is creating a vicious and desensitized monitored closely by the camp. segment of the population for whom inflicting psychological torture and This controlled atmosphere of intimidation are becoming normalized as surveillance and limited communication part of their banal work life. must create a feeling of complete isolation. Accompanied by a barrage of WAITING FOR DETENTION propaganda focused on building a “Chinese” identity for the detainees and Although not comparable with the breaking down their Uighur identity, this psychological damage done to the isolation must inflict untold psychological detainees inside the camps, these trauma. For this reason, and given the “education centers” are also inflicting indefinite term of inmates’ detention, it is psychological trauma on all Uighurs in not surprising that my informant’s the XUAR. My informant suggested that acquaintance told A that there were the presence of these detention centers frequent suicide attempts in the camp. constantly hangs over all Uighurs’ daily As a result, detainees are denied life in the region. In some ways, this has access to any objects that could be created a sense of a new normalcy that used to inflict self-harm and are forced people must factor into virtually all of to wear uniforms that are deemed their daily choices of action, but it also “suicide safe.” instills in people a constant fear of

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arbitrary detention as well as intense experience this extreme invasion of distrust of each other. private space, A did mention that similar evaluations of the family were regularly Some of the ways in which the camps done by a local state-run neighborhood have invaded the everyday life of committee (Makhalla Komiteti). Uighurs are as mundane as finding code words for telling others where their missing friends and relatives are when On one hand, this process of constant they have disappeared into an evaluation offers Uighurs a road map of education center. Others are more the things to avoid being perceived as overt, but equally mundane. As my doing as a means of navigating the new informant explained to me, now, when normal of Xinjiang. On the other hand, one enters a store to buy clothes, the they serve as a means to force Uighurs salesperson will ask without emotion if outside the camps to forsake the they are buying regular clothes or markers of their identity, including their clothes for the camps. These examples language, history and religion. suggest that people have to a certain Additionally, these regular evaluations extent internalized the existence of provide an avenue for others to attack these camps as a normal part of life. those with whom they may have disagreements. Thus, my informant said If the presence of the camps has that there are frequent instances of become normalized, their incorporation people using accusations of “extremist into daily life also reinforces a constant tendencies” or “two-facedness” against fear among virtually all Uighurs that others as a means to remove they, too, may be sent to live in them. In competitors in the workplace or work places, employees are made neighbors with whom one has a aware of the many criteria that makes disagreement. one either an “extremist,” or in state places of work (including schools and In this sense, the camps have cultivated universities), a “two-faced official,” an environment of distrust and criteria against which they are viciousness that is quite similar to those constantly evaluated. While not stated in the Soviet Union during the 1930s explicitly, people know that these and China’s Cultural Revolution during regular evaluations are intended to the 1960s, when colleagues and determine whether they will be sent to neighbors frequently turned each other an education center. in as “enemies of the people” or “counter-revolutionaries” to be sent to For some Uighurs, this experience is labor camps or killed on the basis of even more immediate, as those who personal grievances. evaluate their loyalty are sent by the state to periodically live with them in The uncertainty and lack of trust in this their homes. While my informant did not situation makes one live in almost

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constant fear that one could get the the culture and identity of Uighurs and “knock on the door” from authorities. My other Muslim ethnic groups in the informant said that it is widely believed region, but to what ends? In general, that people are taken to the camps from these efforts have focused on the their homes late in the evening, leading elimination of Islam, the eradication of to many sleepless nights. A, for any political voice in society, the example, would stay up most nights destruction of Uighur social capital, the waiting anxiously to find out if the repression of the Uighur language and authorities would be coming. The lack of the destruction of all substance in trust cultivated by this situation has led Uighur culture beyond song, dance and people to take all steps possible to avoid perhaps a version of “national dress” talking about the camps and the fear that is acceptable to the state. they evoke. If one is to discuss this with anybody, it must be a very trusted While the state appears to be attempting person and in complete privacy where to replace these aspects of Uighur nobody else can hear. Thus, one cannot identity with the hallmarks of Chinese compare notes about the fear each is identity, I would posit that the goal is not encountering, and all of these feelings assimilation because the dominant Han must be bottled up and self-absorbed. culture will never fully accept Uighurs as equals; rather, it is to make this ethnic This internalization of fear among group into a cultural artifact, much like Uighurs in the XUAR must be creating a the state changed the living Uighur old contradictory environment. On the one city in Kashgar into a museum-styled hand, people have incentives to appear caricature of its original form. unquestioning of what is happening and to embrace it as normal. On the other While this systematic campaign to hand, the consciousness that at any change identity shares some moment one might be arbitrarily commonalities with other state-led social detained indefinitely in a camp must engineering projects from the past, it make life anything but normal. They also appears to be something cannot demonstrate any attachments to completely new. While its aggressive the social life they once lived — the attempt to alter identity is reminiscent of bonds of family, friends, neighbors and Pol Pot’s Year Zero campaign in ethnic identity must all be forsaken. Cambodia or Mao’s Cultural Revolution, This, in effect, is breaking down the both of these examples of mass social social fabric of Uighur society, which is engineering targeted the entire at the center of their cultural identity. citizenship of states and not merely select ethnic groups. In other ways, the ETHNIC CLEANSING? mass internment of people on the basis of ethnicity and religion in Xinjiang It is clear that the People’s Republic of evokes the history of Nazi Germany’s China is seeking to radically transform concentration camps, but the fact that

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this has yet to result in the mass murder which had worked throughout the of Uighurs suggests it is too soon to call second half of the last century to this genocide. prevent such mass atrocities from repeating themselves. How it deals with Finally, it is tempting to equate efforts to what is happening in Xinjiang today may quarantine and control Uighurs in the be a litmus test for the future, and its XUAR with a process of “ethnic response will help set a precedent for cleansing” like that which occurred how much state-led violence against during the Yugoslav civil war, but citizens — particularly against minority China’s efforts vis-à-vis Uighurs and populations — will be tolerated in the other Muslim groups in this region have 21st century. not yet sought to drive these populations from the region entirely as was the intent in former Yugoslavia. Sean R. Roberts is an associate professor of the practice of international In this context, what we are witnessing affairs and the director of the in the XUAR is a new form of ethnic international development studies cleansing that draws from all of these program at George Washington mass atrocities of the past while University’s Elliott School of benefiting from the technologies of International Affairs. He is an control available to states in the 21st anthropologist by training and wrote his century. It is a form of ethnic cleansing dissertation at the University of where the object of purging is not Southern California on the Uyghurs of physical territory, but the human terrain Kazakhstan and their interaction with of the ethnic group itself. China’s Uyghurs. In addition to his academic work, Roberts has done Whereas ethnic cleansing during the substantial work in the field of breakup of Yugoslavia sought to international development, primarily on cleanse a territory of other ethnicities, in democratization and human rights in the Xinjiang, the Chinese state appears to former Soviet Union and especially in be trying to cleanse Uighurs of their Central Asia. He has published “Uighurness.” A recent document on numerous articles in academic journals, China’s state policy in the XUAR makes edited volumes and in policy-oriented these intentions clear, noting that the publications, both about political goal with regards to the Uighurs is to development in Central Asia and about “break their lineage, break their roots, the Uyghurs. He also frequently break their connections, and break their provides commentary to major news origins.” outlets on these subjects, and he is currently writing a book on the self- The appearance of new technologies for fulfilling prophecy of Uyghur militancy. ethnic cleansing should be of great concern to the international community,

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CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA (CEPA). The choice of adjectives may vary, but all generally seek to upgrade trade ties while simultaneously Investing in Kazakhstan Is enhancing political dialogue and holding Still a Risky Business the partner country accountable to Polina Popova international frameworks. The EPCA January 10, 2018 with Kazakhstan sticks to these priorities and attempts to respond to civil society

concerns by placing strong emphasis on Extending economic opportunities to rights issues. Kazakh companies could end up bankrolling the ruling class. Unfortunately, translating those words

into action might be more complicated Kazakhstan and the European Union than the EU thinks. Finnish MEP Liisa are celebrating a landmark partnership Jaakonsaari echoed concerns shared by agreement that was sealed in December NGOs and other lawmakers during the 2017, with an “overwhelming majority” of debate over final ratification of the Parliament members voting to pursue EPCA. She declared that “economic the bloc’s first such deal with a Central interests cannot take precedence over Asian country. human rights” at the tabling of the bill,

but it remains unclear whether even Before popping open the locally-sourced those economic objectives will prove champagne, however, the EU should within reach. For one thing, take a moment and consider this not as implementing and enforcing the deal’s an opportunity to lean back, but to push provisions means facing numerous its easterly neighbor harder on human challenges posed by corruption and the rights, the rule of law and improving the post-Soviet state’s overall business country’s stagnant business climate. environment for the European companies that Kazakh leaders hope to As is often the case in former lure to their market. communist countries, oligarchs closely

aligned to the ageing President The Enhanced Partnership and Nursultan Nazarbayev control much of Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) is a Kazakhstan’s wealth. In such a murky charter described as “WTO plus” environment, extending more economic because it reiterates World Trade opportunities to Kazakh companies Organization provisions (in order to could just end up bankrolling the ruling cement them) while taking on other class, making investing in Kazakhstan a barriers to trade. The EU’s partnership risky business. While the World Bank’s agreements come with a variety of latest Doing Business index places labels; a similar deal with Armenia, for Kazakhstan 36 in the world — a jump of example, is called the Comprehensive & 16 places compared to two years prior Enhanced Partnership Agreement

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— corruption remains rife. Transparency by outside companies in dealing with the International rates the country in its Kazakh judiciary and in seeking redress lowest quartile, sandwiched between for unfair treatment. Iran and Russia. In its defense, the Kazakh government Many of these issues stem from the way is cognizant of at least some of these the economy is structured. The vast problems. Astana has made an effort to majority of the country’s state-owned privatize state-owned enterprises, firms remain government-controlled, attract investors and diversify the with no progress on promises to economy. Following the 2015 collapse privatize behemoths such as the of world oil prices, for instance, the KazMunaiGaz oil and gas firm. Even Kazakh government announced a when outside companies are allowed privatization drive that sought to reduce into the market, they face obstacles to state ownership of the national economy putting down long-term roots in the from more than 40% to less than 15% market. — the standard used by the Organization for Economic Cooperation This holds doubly true for investors in and Development. Speaking at the the country’s strategic electricity sector. Kazakhstan Global Investment Astana bluntly told AES Corp, a US Roundtable last month, Prime Minister company with 20 years of experience Bakhytzhan Sagintayev promised the operating in Kazakhstan, that its government would be prioritizing concession of two hydropower plants transparency, the rule of law and the the American firm had been operating protection of property in 2018. Those and improving since the 1990s would be remarks came just days before the terminated. Adding insult to injury, the European Parliament voted for the Kazakh government then decided to EPCA. ignore the terms of its initial contract with AES, which provided for The MEPs who overwhelmingly voted compensations in case of termination. for the new partnership agreement need Instead of the nearly $90 million it is to make sure their deal with Astana owed, Kazakh officials offered the turns these talking points into concrete American company $1 and demanded policy results on the ground. A freer, an immediate transfer of ownership. more transparent economy based on good governance as opposed to venal A similar fate befell the Dutch company interests will be important to addressing Liman Caspian, which saw its licenses many of their other concerns regarding for oil and gas extraction annulled by Kazakhstan. Europe’s voice should be Kazakhstan’s courts and transferred to a loud, but it does not need to be solitary. Kazakh company controlled by obscure With President Nazarbayev visiting shareholders. Liman Caspian’s ordeal Washington this month, now would be a helps demonstrate the difficulties faced

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good time for his American interlocutors The budget deserves neither Kaul’s to drive home the same message. condemnation nor Mukherjee’s genuflection. Instead, a cold look at the budget’s proclamations and numbers Polina Popova is a Russian-British reveal that this is a budget of both freelance writer and aspiring journalist. promise and peril. If the government can She received a Bachelor's degree in follow through on its proposals, it will Law and Politics from the University of improve the lives of hundreds of Manchester. After a short stint at millions. If it fails or falters in its General Electrics (GE) working as a implementation, a surge in inflation, paralegal, she continued her education unemployment and debt is inevitable. at Sorbonne University where she obtained a Master's degree in STATE OF THE ECONOMY International Relations. Popova's main areas of focus include eastern European To analyze the budget, we have to politics and society, while she is examine the state of the economy, and currently conducting research for her the government of India’s Economic book on Vladimir Putin and post-Soviet Survey 2017-18 is the best place to Russia. start. The Indian economy decelerated in the first half of the year before rebounding sharply in the second half. India Enters the Era of Apparently, the slowdown in the first six months was because of demonetization, Sanatan Socialism teething difficulties in the new goods Atul Singh & Manu Sharma and services tax, rising real interest February 9, 2018 rates, companies struggling to meet interest payments, bad debts on the The Indian government’s latest budget books of banks, and sharp falls in courts the poor with an indigenous certain food prices that impacted brand of socialism that relies on agricultural incomes. From July 2017 financial transfers and private provision onward, the global economic recovery of services in an election year. boosted exports. Because of government reforms, India jumped 30 In an article for the BBC, Vivek Kaul has spots on the World Bank’s Ease of damned the most recent Indian budget Doing Business rankings from 130 to as “full of vague promises” that “sells 100. dreams for votes.” In contrast, Shyamal Mukherjee, the chairman of Yet, as Economic Survey 2017-18 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) India, acknowledged, anxieties remain. In its has hailed the government for words, “fiscal deficits, the current approaching “development holistically.” account, and inflation were all higher than expected, albeit not threateningly

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so, reflecting in part higher international heralded demographic dividend a oil prices—India’s historic demographic disaster. macroeconomic vulnerability.” While pointing out that India had risen 30 GROWING TAX BASE spots in one of the World Bank’s rankings, the survey failed to note that, Tellingly, the Economic Survey 2017-18 out of 190 countries, India still ranks 156 reveals an important fact. The number when it comes to starting a business, of unique indirect taxpayers in India has 164 in enforcing contracts and 181 gone up by 50% since the government when dealing with construction permits. implemented the Goods and Services The rankings reveal that India’s Tax (GST) Act in July 2017. The income infamous red tape, notorious corruption tax net has widened too. Now, an and dysfunctional judiciary continue to additional 1.8 million are paying income hinder its economic potential. tax, taking the figure of those who file returns to around 59 million payees. Newspaper headlines tend to focus on Income tax collections have risen from growth alone. However, Indians must 2% of GDP to a historic high of 2.3%. pay attention to three pertinent facts. This number is still miniscule in a country of over 1.3 billion people, but First, private investment in India has the government has made significant collapsed from a high of 27.2% of GDP progress in its goal to formalize the in 2011 to about 21.9% of GDP in 2015. Indian economy. The Economic Survey 2017-18 observes that Indian corporates have Even as the central government in New modest investment plans despite the Delhi is casting a wider net, the 29 state low levels of the cost of equity, thanks to governments do a terrible job in booming stock markets. collecting taxes. The Economic Survey 2017-18 reveals that Indian states get Second, exports of goods and services less than 10% of their total revenue from fell from 25.4% of GDP in 2013 to direct taxes. The corresponding figures 19.2% in 2016. Alarmingly, “the only two for their counterparts in Brazil and truly sustainable engines” of rapid Germany are nearly 20% and over 40% economic growth are not quite firing on respectively. full throttle. India’s tax figures reveal an important Third, unemployment and fact. The informal or “black” economy in underemployment in India continues to India has been humongous for decades. remain a huge challenge. Year after Neither Jawaharlal Nehru’s socialism year, even doctors of philosophy nor Narasimha Rao’s liberalization were continue to apply for positions of peons. able to shine the light on this black The lack of “good, high productivity jobs” economy. Indians found innumerable threatens to make India’s much- ways to work around their government’s

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interminable red tape, and avoiding tax Times,” has since fled to the United was a national sport in a manner Kingdom and been charged with money- uncannily similar to Italy. Prime Minister laundering. Rajan might have been Narendra Modi’s government has made Bond for the stock market, but this US- progress on its long-term goal of the based son of an intelligence official left a formalization of the Indian economy. trail of carcasses in India’s banking sector. TACKLING TWIN BALANCE SHEET PROBLEM Such is the scale of the TBS problem that India’s non-performing assets ratio In March 2017, The Economist analyzed is among the highest in the world. Only India’s Twin Balance Sheet (TBS) Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland have problem. During former Prime Minister worse ratios. In December 2017, RBI Manmohan Singh’s second term when published the Financial Stability Report Raghuram Rajan was the governor of (FSR), a biannual publication. As per the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the FSR, non-performing assets in the companies invested on over optimistic banking sector may rise from 10.2% of assumptions and banks lent without due the total loans in September 2017 to diligence. As a result, many companies 10.8% in March 2018 and further to are near-bankrupt and are struggling to 11.1% by September 2018. repay their debt. This puts the balance sheets of both companies and banks in To be fair to the Modi government, it is “parlous states” because non- finally addressing TBS through, what the performing assets throttle investment. Economic Survey 2017-18 called, the Since most banks are owned by the four Rs strategy involving “recognition, government, the risk of an acute crisis is resolution, recapitalization and reforms.” low. Having said that, bad debts are It has also brought in a new Indian causing a “chronic malaise” in the Bankruptcy Code (IBC) to provide a economy. resolution framework for companies to clean up their balance sheets and Rajan is the man responsible for this reduce their debts. Furthermore, the malaise. Interestingly, Business Insider government has announced a large prides itself on calling Rajan the “James recapitalization package of about 1.2% Bond of Dalal Street.” This New York- of India’s GDP to strengthen the based publication was not alone in balance sheets of public sector banks. letting Rajan off the hook for India’s TBS problem. Like Alan Greenspan, Rajan BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS and his predecessors presided over an “irrational exuberance” that led to banks Finance Minister Arun Jaitley trumpeted lending merrily to the likes of Vijay Modi’s vision of “minimum government Mallya, who alone racked up over $1 and maximum governance” in billion. Mallya, the “King of Good paragraph seven of his budget speech.

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In the next paragraph, he talked about tertiary care system covering both improving “ease of living” not just “ease prevention and health promotion.” First, of doing business,” especially for the 150,000 health and wellness centers are poor and middle classes. He declared to “provide comprehensive health care, that good governance involves minimum including for non-communicable interference by the government in the diseases and maternal and child health life of common people of the country. If services.” They are also supposed to we are to derive the philosophical dispense “free essential drugs and underpinnings of the budget, they lie in diagnostic services.” Second, “a flagship paragraph eight of the finance minister’s National Health Protection Scheme” is speech. The government aims to to cover over 100 million poor and ameliorate the lives of the people but vulnerable families, providing coverage intervene minimally in the process. of up to $7,800 per family per year for secondary and tertiary care To improve this ease of living, the hospitalization. This is four times the budget raised the Minimum Support country’s real per capita income. With Price (MSP) for a large number of crops an estimated 500 million beneficiaries, by one and a half times. The this scheme “will be the world’s largest government’s goal is to raise incomes government funded health care for farmers. However, the budget does program.” not contain an analysis of how the rise in MSP might impact inflation, cropping The budget recognized that “Medium, patterns or the budget deficit. It does Small and Micro Enterprises (MSMEs) focus on strengthening rural markets, are a major engine of growth and though, and sets an ambitious target of employment in the country.” Jaitley upgrading 22,000 of them. The budget observed that demonetization and GST also announced 500,000 Wi-Fi hotspots were causing the formalization of that hold the promise of connecting MSMEs. He announced more than $590 millions of villagers to high-speed million for MSMEs as “credit support, internet. It focuses on rural capital and interest subsidy and infrastructure, announcing 1.7 million innovations.” The slashing of corporate kilometers of new roads, 5.1 million new income tax is more significant measure homes, 19 million new toilets and 17.5 for MSMEs. Companies with a turnover million new household electricity of up to approximately $39 million will connections for India’s villages. pay tax at 25%. This will benefit 667,000 companies that employ 110 million More importantly, the budget announced Indians and comprise 37% of India’s two major initiatives as part of the GDP. Thus, 96% of the total number of Ayushman Bharat program that, in the companies filing tax returns will benefit words of Jaitley, aims to make “path from this measure. The assumption breaking interventions to address health behind this move is that it will strengthen holistically, in primary, secondary and

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the MSMEs sector and boost too well. About 16% of Indian employment. households spend over 10% of their income on health care in case of crises. On the taxation front, the budget Nearly 4% spend as high as 25% when introduced the long-term capital gains emergency strikes, in contrast to South tax on return on investment from equity. Africa and Russia where merely 0.1% As per the finance minister, buoyant and 0.6% households spend a similar stock markets have largely benefited amount. As per two different poverty corporates and limited liability lines, 4.2% or 4.6% of households end partnerships. Besides, as the Economic up impoverished because of excessive Survey 2017-18 observed, this stock spending on health care. The above market surge has coincided with percentages imply that of the 240 million deceleration in economic growth. India’s households in India, 50 million are corporate earnings to GDP ratio has ruined by costs of health care. In theory, fallen to just 3.5%, while the insurance could save these borderline corresponding figure in the United cases — people who are often pushed States has remained a healthy 9%. As over the edge by simple diseases such per Jaitley, this has created “a bias as malaria and diarrhea. against manufacturing” and some say even capital investment. This measure Health insurance could also create a is intended to even the playing field parallel health care system that provides apart from getting some coins for India’s for the poor. India’s public health coffers. delivery system is on the verge of collapse. Government hospitals lack Finally, the budget increases the doctors, nurses, equipment and existing health and education cess by medicines. Employees fail to show up, 1%. This will net the government a little wards are dirty and patients die waiting. over $1.7 billion and go to the Furthermore, of a total of 628,708 Consolidated Fund of India but, unlike government beds, only 196,182 are in the GST, not be shared with the states. rural areas. India does not have enough doctors and most do not go to rural READING THE CHARTS: THE GOOD, areas. This leaves villagers highly THE BAD AND THE UGLY vulnerable because simple conditions can deteriorate rapidly into life Prima facie, the health insurance threatening ones. scheme is a bold move that could ameliorate the lives of hundreds of The budget’s health insurance scheme millions. Recently, the World Health could bring about dramatic change if Organization and the World Bank executed well. However, after the published Tracking Universal Health shambolic implementation of Coverage: 2017 Global Monitoring demonetization and the multiple gaffes Report, as per which India did not fare over GST, the government’s ability to

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execute is in question. Health care and private hospitals would profit far more public health professionals point out that from the budget’s insurance scheme the budget has given up on the than poor villagers. Besides, the budget provision of health care by the does not reveal how much this scheme government. Since this model has failed will cost, where the money would come for decades, it is opting for the from and who would administer this insurance-based solution. However, this scheme. runs risks of inflation as the American experience demonstrates. In the US, an Similarly, neither MSP nor rural markets insurance-driven system now consumes might end up benefiting farmers much. over 17% of an over $18 trillion GDP State governments are in-charge of and achieves rather poor outcomes. agriculture, and their ability to implement policies or schemes are suspect. Furthermore, the budget’s health Besides, the budget is unclear as to the insurance scheme took everyone by cost of increased MSP or its impact on surprise. It was reminiscent of the inflation, deficit and the environment. If government’s earlier announcement to farmers are assured of MSP on rice, impose demonetization. While it may be what stops them from growing this water a product of original thinking by guzzling crop in semi-arid areas such as government, the fact that the scheme Haryana and Punjab? was utterly unflagged is reflective of a secretive nature of functioning. It Despite potential pitfalls, the focus on appears that a close coterie comes up issues such as health and rural with ideas but does not bother to run it infrastructure is indicative of a socialist by subject matter experts or those bent of mind. At a time when US responsible for implementing this President Donald Trump is cutting project. taxes, the supposedly market-friendly Narendra Modi is courting the poor and There is another minor matter. In India, the marginalized. He is cutting private health care providers are expenditure in defense and education arguably at least as rapacious as in the while continuing subsidies and US. They notoriously provide shoddy dispensing goodies. Unlike the Fabian treatment at high prices. Worryingly, Socialism of Nehru, this is Sanatan they provide “kickbacks for referrals, Socialism of Modi. Just like Sanatan irrational drug prescribing and Dharma, this is an ingenious and unnecessary interventions,” profiting indigenous form of socialism. A party from the sick in a most unseemly long identified with the priestly and fashion. Such is the state of affairs that trading classes is now focusing on an estimated 40% of private care is India’s impoverished millions. However, provided by unqualified providers. Even instead of entrusting India’s bumbling reputed corporate hospitals are guilty of bureaucrats with the commanding running rackets. If implemented poorly, heights of the economy, Modi’s

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government is relying on formalization It is too early to tell if they will vote for and financialization to deliver benefits to the opposition, but they no longer love the people. Modi as they did in 2014. If Sanatan Socialism does not seduce India’s poor In the pursuit of formalization, the and needy, the next elections might government is bringing an increasing prove just a tad tricky for the man with number of individuals and companies the self-proclaimed 56-inch chest. into the tax ambit. To achieve its goal of financialization, over 310 million new bank accounts have opened under the Atul Singh is the founder, CEO and prime minister’s Jan Dhan Yojana. editor-in-chief of Fair Observer. He has These accounts are linked to their taught political economy at the unique identification numbers known as University of California, Berkeley and Aadhaar and to their mobile numbers. been a visiting professor of humanities This linking of accounts, Aadhaar and and social sciences at the Indian mobile numbers allows the government Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar. to deliver financial subsidies directly to He studied philosophy, politics and citizens, eliminating intermediaries, economics at the University of Oxford inefficiencies and leakages. Of course, on the Radhakrishnan Scholarship and financialization carries risks too. If Indian did an MBA with a triple major in banks go the Americano way and invest finance, strategy and entrepreneurship in toxic assets, they might drag down at the Wharton School. Singh worked as depositors in the same way. a corporate lawyer in London and led special operations as an elite officer in Finally, the political ramifications of this India’s volatile border areas where he budget are the elephant in the room. had many near-death experiences. This year, 10 different states will face elections. Many expect an early national Manu Sharma is a political analyst with general election by the end of the year. an international footprint. A dynamic, Some anticipate direct cash transfers to young thought leader in the field of new bank accounts as a last-ditch effort global political research, to win votes. communications strategy, public policy and political economy, Sharma has India is now fairly and squarely in the served in financial institutions, midst of election season and all political international organizations and media parties are striving to win over voters. bodies across four continents. He brings Yet even as the government has a formidable mix of technical skills, showered rural and marginalized voters multicultural experience and the ability with goodies, it has left the urban middle to deliver across timelines. Sharma’s classes high and dry. These classes are areas of professional expertise include traditional supporters of the Bharatiya political risk research, psephology Janata Party and are seething with rage.

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surveys and quantitative research youth. Yet this was not a simple rise in papers on economic issues. anger symbolizing grassroots tensions between two communities. It was organized mob violence with a plan and The Way Forward After strategy to target Sri Lankan Muslims, united on social media and fed with local Communal Violence in Sri intelligence about where they lived. Lanka Amjad Saleem To some extent, the violence was not March 6, 2018 entirely unexpected. For many of us who have been working on post-conflict Sri Lanka needs a platform for genuine reconciliation in Sri Lanka and kept an and objective discussion in the hope of eye on community relations, for a moving forward and achieving number of years there has been a reconciliation. feeling that although relative “calm” had descended on the island at the end of In Sri Lanka, the start of February was the decades-long civil war in 2009, this about celebration for the past 70 years was just surface-led. It was inevitable of independence, but its end was about that some sort of communal violence reflective contemplation over an would return. After all, the conflict uncertain future. Following a wave of indicators showed that Sri Lanka faced anti-Muslim violence in the central trouble every 10 years after district of Kandy, a nationwide state of independence. emergency was declared on March 6 — and lifted on March 18 — the first time in BEHIND THE VIOLENCE IN KANDY seven years in a country with a history of civil war. For those of us who were tracking the rise of extreme nationalism and ethnic Amidst a curfew enforced in the central and religious hatred — being pushed by province, mobs comprising disaffected a small minority speaking on behalf of youth from the majority Sinhala the majority Sinhala Buddhist community — often led by Buddhist community — the latest round of monks and individuals linked to ultra- violence is a worrying sign of a link and nationalist Sinhalese groups — attacked trend of globalizing hatred and fragility. and destroyed premises belonging to the minority Muslim community. Over the last 100 years, there have Businesses, homes and mosques were been at least six incidents of large-scale torched and looted. violence between the Sinhalese and Muslims in Sri Lanka. Today, the time The attacks were in apparent retaliation between recent incidents has dropped for the death of a Sinhalese driver after (the previous flare ups happened within an altercation with drunken Muslim the last four years), and the rhetoric

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around sectarian violence has mirrored Lankan Muslims are successful what is coming out of Myanmar with businessmen and, therefore, economic hardline Buddhists and the minority interests mean there is an attempt to Rohingya. squeeze Muslims out of the market. From the halal boycott — a move by a It is in this light that Sri Lanka is seen hardline Sinhalese Buddhist group — to through a singular lens of good vs evil, the extensive damage and looting that us vs them. This perpetuates deeply has been inflicted on businesses, it is delusive and divisive assumptions of clear that there was an economic exclusive identities by these sectarian dimension to the violence aimed at actors, who want people to ignore all hitting the Muslim community. affiliation and loyalties in support of one “religious” identity. There is also an attempt to decrease the visibility of Muslims. For hardline The violence of February comes on the Sinhalese, Muslims are seen as a threat back of what has been a relentless and to Sinhala identity and ultimately Sri sustained campaign of anti-Muslim Lanka, which manifests itself in the rhetoric. This has involved public rhetoric around dress codes — in meetings, the distribution of pamphlets particular what is deemed as Arab and the publishing of articles in clothes such as the thawb for men or mainstream Sinhala and English papers, the abaya and niqab for women — and which have borrowed rhetoric used the attacks on mosques. globally to demonize and stereotype Muslims. In the face of “fake news,” the GOVERNMENT RESPONSE propagation of myths is wide and wild. For instance, the week preceding the What is ultimately surprising is not that flare up of violence in Kandy, a tense these actions took place, but the silent situation erupted in the east where complicity of the Sinhala majority. For a Sinhalese had accused Muslims of lot of us in Sri Lanka who grew up with serving them food with infertile pills. people from other communities, what Such was the seriousness of the claim has been disconcerting (although there that the United Nations Population are exceptions to this) has been the Fund, the World Health Organization, silence of condemnation for violent and the Government Medical Officers actions by mainstream Sinhalese. This Association had to issue statements to is by no means a generalization as there refute this. have been strong statements, including by Buddhist monks, condemning the It would be naive to blame the violence violence. just on faith. There are other factors that combine to make this flare up and its However, the disappointment was the causes deep and problematic. The reaction of the government, who majority misperception is that Sri seemed to have been caught by

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surprise by the violence and struggled to By hardline Sinhala Buddhists declaring contain it. Despite a curfew and social Sri Lanka as a “Sinhala-only country,” media censorship, in the initial phases those perpetrating this mindless rhetoric of the violence the government of Sinhala supremacism presuppose the appeared unable to mobilize law acceptance of Sri Lanka as a land enforcement to act. Though a number of sacred to Buddhism and with Buddhists arrests were made and there have been as its chosen people. According to this strong statements issued, the Sri vision, minorities, including Sinhala Lankan government struggled to ensure Christians, are not co-owners or even that the rule of law and justice had been guests (because guests have to be followed. This perhaps remains the given certain privileges and rights). biggest disappointment for many who Rather, they are second-class serfs thought the government change in 2015 (untouchables) who should thank the would bring about a shift in the narrative benevolent majority for being given the of racist, ethno-nationalist politics. chance to live there.

So, what needs to be done? In so doing, this completely rewrites the rich history of a country whose mosaic is Clearly there is a lot to be done made up of different ethnicities, faiths politically. The present government and cultures. They have chosen to entered office on the agenda of good rewrite a history of the accumulation of governance and equality, and it was unfinished business, the piling up of largely supported by minority voters, debts and the stacking up of fortunes including the Muslim community. There and misfortunes. Whilst it is true that Sri needs to be trust built once again with Lanka is the only place in which there the government and between the are Sinhalese and where the Sinhalese government and Sri Lankan Muslims. In language is spoken, this does not addition, however, there needs to be equate to ownership of the island solely work done at the grassroots level. There by one race or another, nor does it is currently a lot to be done around speak of the rich inter mingling of all improving social capital. Hence, a races and faiths that influence much of change of narrative and thinking has to Sri Lankan culture, food, art and music be the order of the day on top of any today. It also does a huge disservice to structural alignments toward ensuring the Buddhist way of life, which is about that such bouts of violence do not peace, tranquility and tolerance of happen again. There also has to be a others. Declaring Sri Lanka as Buddhist change of narrative about who Muslims does not preclude it from having are and where they belong in Sri Lanka. minorities of other faiths and ethnicities coexisting with equal rights. DIVERSITY IN SRI LANKA This change in narrative also has to start from the Muslim community itself.

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For years, we have claimed that a band-aid to a deep burn. The vitriolic Muslims arrived in Sri Lanka around rhetoric that has been spread is 1,000 years ago. This simplifies a testimony to the fact that we need to complex history of Islam coming through start once again from scratch in trade — mostly by Arabs — and of a developing a discussion that is not only rich history of engagement with local top-down, but bottom-up too. There people. Islam came to Sri Lanka via needs to be parallel efforts to build trust traders who interacted with local between people and communities communities. Thus, there is a mélange through multi-faith interactions and of identities, ethnicities and cultures that crossing ethnic divides. make up the Muslim community, not the homogeneous identities that both the This is the role that civil society and, in Muslim community and those outside of particular, religious leaders should be it choose to define. playing in order to bring out about reconciliation. The aim should be to RECONCILIATION rebuild trust through reducing suspicion and infusing human values, with an The recent events are also a wake-up understanding of the need to move call to those who have been engaging in away from apportioning blame for deceit reconciliation work in Sri Lanka. For too and destruction. Trust can only be long, there was a binary notion from the rebuilt when a space is created for international community about the effective dialogue and understanding. decades-long civil war being between This space is one that starts at local two parties: the Sinhalese and the levels with community organizations, Tamil. Yet the history of the conflict is leaders and intellectuals. It is not the much more than that. Though not direct sole responsibility of the political parties to the war, Sri Lankan Muslims establishment, but of everyone suffered during the conflict, and it is interested in this endeavor. important to note that for full reconciliation to take place, it needs to Rebuilding trust is about honoring unity be holistic and comprehensive. This and celebrating diversity, working means everyone should be considered toward equity and justice, and ensuring from all parts of Sri Lanka. the eradication of social prejudices in Reconciliation is not about north and building a collective identity. We cannot south. abrogate our individual responsibilities in this task. The simple question to ask The violence in Kandy shows that a lot ourselves is: How much do we know of more needs to be done at the and understand our friends/colleagues grassroots level. It is fine to talk about who come from a different faith and political solutions, but if people at the ethnicity? By knowing, understanding grassroots still do not trust or know each and respecting each other’s faith and other, then political solutions will just be community, we move from just tolerance

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to acceptance. These are the first signs indiscriminate violence between fighting of a mature, diverse society and forces. democracy. It is the first part in accepting the social contract of We are nearly 35 years on from the citizenship of a nation. horrible riots of July 1983 that sent the country down a treacherous path, Solutions are needed for the restitution because it is exactly the same scenario of a fractured polity, which involves a where anti-Tamil propaganda was healthy acceptance of minorities. pumped over in the years. We are also Hence, there must be legal and 103 years on from the first Sinhala- constitutional structures that not only Muslim riots and violence that took guarantee equal rights for citizens and place in exactly the same place: Kandy. freedom of religion, but also legislates Despite the multiple incidents of anti- against incitement for racial and Muslim violence that have occurred religious hatred and discrimination. No since 1915 without any such armed one argues about removing the reaction from the community, lessons privileged place of Buddhism in Sri should be taken from history in terms of Lanka or doing away with rights of the the ramifications of not addressing the majority. But it is expected that the spirit causes of conflict. of Buddhism has to ensure tolerance and respect for others, and with legal If we want to aspire to tackle the root safeguards in place to enforce this. causes of the ethnic and racist rhetoric and violence, then the challenge is to Sri Lanka is at a crossroads of actually learn from what has happened uncertainty, with bitter interethnic in order to have a county that respects rivalries fanned by divisive politics. its diversity and is united in its principles Constitutional amendments and and values that are influenced by projected development, however, are Buddhism. Otherwise, we condemn not enough to make hearts forgive and future generations to the vicious cycle of forget. Sri Lanka needs a platform for hatred, intolerance and violence that will genuine and objective discussion in the destroy Sri Lanka, not unite it. hope of moving forward and achieving reconciliation. This has to start at the grassroots and involve all aspects of Amjad Saleem is a political analyst and society. Reconciliation has to ultimately freelance consultant with interests in work through the hearts of individuals peacebuilding and humanitarian policy, who harbor pain from the long years of South Asia and interfaith action. In this their inability to meet basic human capacity, he has worked with aspirations or from the loss of loved International Alert, KAICIID, ones and properties as they became Commonwealth Foundation, Search for innocent victims of calculated and Common Ground, Islamic Relief and Islamic Development Bank, among

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others. He is a visiting fellow on peace Trump won power in part thanks to his and security at the Institute of Advanced tough stance on immigration. He raised Islamic Studies in Malaysia, and a the specter of drug-dealers, criminals global fellow at the Project for the Study and rapists crossing the American of the 21st century, based in London. border with Mexico. He promised to His main interest is the role of faith in build the wall, make Mexico pay for it conflict prevention and development. and stop the deluge of migrants flooding Saleem also sits as a thematic advisor into the US. looking at “meeting the needs of people in conflict” for the United Nations- In office, Trump has certainly delivered initiated process, the World on his promise. Illegal migrants entering Humanitarian Summit. He is a regular the United States are rounded up, contributor to journals, and he edited a locked up in detention centers and then book published in 2008 entitled “The shipped back across the border. Until Story of Aceh: Insights.” recently, Trump did not mind separating families and locking children in cages. As per US immigration officials, 2,342 Lesson from India to Make children were separated from 2,206 parents between May 5 and June 9. America Great Again After much brouhaha and raucous Ruyintan E. Mehta & Atul Singh international condemnation, Trump July 3, 2018 signed an executive order that allowed for immigrant families to be detained By granting asylum to Zoroastrians together while their legal cases are fleeing persecution a thousand years considered. ago, a local Gujarati ruler inadvertently helped create modern India and Before his U-turn, Trump claimed that benefited the entire world. an executive order would not solve the problem. He argued that the only The conventional view of history is one solution possible was the passing of of progress. This is not entirely true. comprehensive immigration reform by Sometimes, societies regress, cultures Congress. In keeping with his past decline and civilizations fall. This is not a behavior, the abrasive American view that Steven Pinker espouses but president has reversed his stand in the Francis Fukuyama, the man who blink of an eye. The US has now declared the end of history, is coming become Trumpistan, a land that is not around to. Fukuyama is worrying about only cruel and intolerant, but also President Donald Trump and American dishonest and hypocritical in almost all political decay. Trump’s zero-tolerance its claims and actions. policy on migrants that caused the separation of children from their parents IMMIGRANTS FROM IRAN is certainly an example of this decay.

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The US could do well to learn from a CREATORS OF MODERN INDIA lesson from the past. This is not a story of Huguenots fleeing France to Prussia, Fast forward to 2018 and you cannot England and Switzerland. It is not a imagine modern India without the story of Jews fleeing Spain. It is a story Parsis. The second president of the of Zoroastrians fleeing Persia or Indian National Congress was Dadabhai modern-day Iran because of fierce Naoroji, an educator, intellectual and Islamic persecution in the eighth statesman. This Parsi did the early work century. on the drain of wealth from colonial India to imperial Britain. After independence These followers of Zoroaster were in 1947, Homi Jehangir Bhabha, another members of the world’s first Parsi, created India’s now much- monotheistic faith that began 1,200 to vaunted nuclear program. In 1971, Field 1,500 years before Christ. Many tenets Marshal Sam Manekshaw, arguably the of Judaism, Christianity and Islam have most famous of Parsis, liberated their roots in Zoroastrianism. In the Bangladesh from Islamabad’s eighth century, members of this rich oppressive rule. ancient tradition fled for their lives to India. Landing in Gujarat, they sought Thanks to his brilliance, 92,000 permission from Jadi Rana, the local Pakistani soldiers surrendered, ensuring ruler, to settle in his lands. As per Bangladeshis could finally live without Qeṣṣa-ye Sanjān (The Story of Sanjān), the fear of being raped, plundered and the ruler was apprehensive about giving slaughtered with wanton abandon. Soli refuge to people who appeared warrior- Sorabjee, a legendary lawyer, jurist and like, dressed differently and spoke in yet another Parsi, has been a torch strange tongues. bearer for freedom of expression and protection of human rights for decades. As per oral tradition, Jadi Rana In the world of music, Zubin Mehta, the presented a full cup of milk to the elegant conductor, and Freddie Mercury refugees to indicate that his lands were , the flamboyant rock star, fly the Parsi already full. These refugees put sugar in flag high. the cup to convince the king that they would be “like sugar in a full cup of milk, Tata, India’s preeminent business adding sweetness but not causing it to house, was founded and has been run overflow.” This purportedly convinced by Parsis for more than a century and Jadi Rana to grant asylum to the half. Not only has it run numerous beleaguered men, women and children successful businesses, this multinational thronging his shores. This was the has helped build towering national sensible and humane thing to do. These institutions such as the Indian Institute newcomers came to be known as the of Science, the Tata Memorial Hospital Parsis, in cognizance of their Persian and the Tata Institute of Fundamental roots. Research. Other Parsis have run

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successful businesses too and set masses yearning to breathe free / The standards for philanthropy in the wretched refuse of your teeming shore.” country. Over 1,000 years ago, the wretched refuse from Iranian shores drifted into For centuries, the Parsis have been the sandy land of Mahatma Gandhi. At totally integrated in Indian society. There that time, if Jadi Rana had acted like have been no reports of strife, tension or Donald Trump, the Parsis would have riots between Parsis and other been cast back into the sea and not only communities in oral or written history. India but also the rest of the world would With a literacy rate of 99%, they remain have been poorer today as a result. the most highly educated community in the land, exceeding the achievements of Brahmins, India’s priestly caste, and Ruyintan E. Mehta is a serial Sayyids, purportedly direct descendants entrepreneur in plastics manufacturing. of Prophet Muhammad. He is currently involved in nonprofit work in water, sanitation, and maternal and It is important to note that the Parsi child health in India as honorary population has never exceeded 100,000 executive director of a US at any point in history. Low birth rates section501(c)(3) foundation. He is also and migration to Western countries has president of IIT Bombay Heritage resulted in the population declining to a Foundation, an alumni body of IIT mere 61,000 today even as India’s Bombay in the US. population continues to rise. By any standards, the Parsi contribution to India Atul Singh is the Founder, CEO and has been staggering and is totally out of Editor-in-Chief of Fair Observer. He has proportion to the minuscule size of their taught political economy at the community. University of California, Berkeley and been a visiting professor of humanities LESSON FOR AMERICA and social sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar. The Parsi story underscores an He studied philosophy, politics and important point. Penniless refugees and economics at the University of Oxford desperate migrants have often been a on the Radhakrishnan Scholarship and country’s greatest assets. In the did an MBA with a triple major in American context, this holds even more finance, strategy and entrepreneurship true. Immigrants made America great at the Wharton School. Singh worked as and it is they who will make America a corporate lawyer in London and led great again. special operations as an elite officer in India’s volatile border areas where he It not without reason that the sonnet on had many near-death experiences. the Statue of Liberty declares, “Give me your tired, your poor / Your huddled

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Modi and Erdogan Have of politics that was pushed back under earlier secular regimes. He has been More in Common than You riding on the “ideal” of changing the Think secular character of the country. Kumar Ashish Erdogan has slowly achieved his goal September 23, 2018 by reviving the glorious past of the Ottoman Empire. In India, the Modi-led With strongman politics on the rise Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to around the world, democracies like India power in 2014, motivated by the agenda should be worried. of “Hindutva” — the notion that India is the homeland of Hindus alone. Prime Political “strongmen” are leaders who Minister Modi’s campaigns evoke the rule by force and with a sense of glorious past of a Hindu India. entitlement under the garb of democracy. The facade of democratic It is easy to notice the similarities structures and institutions used by them between the political journeys of these distinguishes these leaders from strongmen — especially Erdogan and monarchs or dictators. Modi — and what is happening to their countries. Both Erdogan and Modi are The world is witnessing a right-wing right-wing politicians who employ resurgence, with strongmen at the nationalist rhetoric. They use religion to forefront in every corner of this cling onto power and push back the fractured, post-globalization world. At secular fabric of Turkish and Indian the end of 2015, columnist Gideon politics. Rachman wrote in a commentary for The Economist that, “Across the world— In order to unite his primary from Russia to China and from India to constituency, Erdogan has been Egypt—macho leadership is back in persecuting the Kurds. Similarly, the fashion.” Modi administration has imposed Hindu scripture study in schools, ignored Politicians like Narendra Modi, Donald attacks on Christians, and turned a blind Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are eye toward repeated cases of targeted products of these times. They are well lynching of minorities. Demonization of capable of capitalizing on the the opposition, through media sentiments of anxiety and longing for dominance, has been a hallmark of both reclaiming a past civilization. governments. Erdogan and Modi come from modest economic and educational These leaders appear to be driving a backgrounds. They have been ruthless development agenda and have successful in adopting a “strongman” adopted oppressive stands against image, which is extremely appealing to minorities. In Turkey, President Erdogan their respective constituencies. They has sprung from political Islam — a form brand the long-established political

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workings of their countries as elitist hostile environment. Modi supporters (anti-national) and promote populist have stepped up their campaign against policies. inter-religious marriages and the consumption of beef. Mass conversions The strong resemblance of the two to Hinduism are being enforced by his leaders has not gone unnoticed and, party activists. both in India and Turkey, the authoritarian tendencies of Erdogan and With absolute powers in his hands, Modi Modi have brought serious danger to can do what Indira Gandhi did in 1975 democracy and human rights. with what is known as “The Emergency,” or what Erdogan is doing today by RELIGION FIRST placing Turkey under a state of emergency and giving the government Turkey was founded in 1923 as a every power to suppress dissent. secular republic, with its founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, being granted a Religious revivalism is a strong revered status as father of the Turks. adhesive that binds the core voter base Ataturk abolished the Islamic caliphate, of popular leaders. Use of religion as and for nearly a hundred years that rhetoric was optimized by Trump in secular system of keeping religion 2016 and exploited to the fullest by separate from public life had held Erdogan. Similarly, strong motivation in strong. How Erdogan has dumped the form of nationalist sentiments and Turkey’s secular experiment and religious revivalism are being grabbed power should be a lesson for successfully used by Modi, and it Indians, too. In Turkey, it is about the currently appears to be the most potent consolidation of power that will formula for victory in elections. Liberals transform the once-fiercely secular and secularists term Modi as illiberal — republic into Erdogan’s more religiously- a “fascist” who has stifled press minded model. Now, Turks are more freedom, free speech and is likely to see large images of Erdogan’s undermining democratic institutions. face in public than Ataturk’s. These were the very traits of Indira Gandhi, which the BJP today accuses Contrary to the founding principles of the Indian National Congress party of for the nation, Erdogan’s popularity rides on its historic misdeeds. a conservative Muslim base and is derived in part from his assertions that Both the Turkish and Indian cases show Turkey is a Muslim country. In India, the us what authoritarian populists can do in BJP has been strongly motivated by the the long run. They become well capable notion that the country belongs to of delegitimizing anybody who disagrees Hindus only. Since Modi became prime with them. They can denigrate the minister, minority groups have been opposition, control the media and malign regularly attacked and live in a very

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the few who dissent by spreading lies Modi has adapted Erdoganʹs formula to about them. reshape India. He has sought to marginalize Muslims and reinforce With expanded presidential powers Hindu chauvinism. Minorities in general coming into force following an election in feel beleaguered, as Modiʹs nationalism June, Erdogan could remain in office for not only excludes them, but portrays another 10 years. He has perpetuated a them as traitors. Institutions are virtual presidency for life, much like subverted to serve the prime minister’s Russian President Vladimir Putin who narrow political agenda, and dissenters has accorded such powers for himself. It in the media and universities have faced shows that, even if around half of the intimidation. country deeply hates them, populists like Erdogan can stay in power by The right wing in India engages in mobilizing a fervent base of fake double-speak and clearly intends to nationalism. rewrite the history of the country and its constitution. While the union minister, DISENFRANCHISING THE Ananth Kumar Hegde, who had MINORITIES IN INDIA remarked that the BJP came to power to change the constitution was made to The 2014 general elections in India saw apologize in parliament last December, a marked reduction in the share of he did state as much. Similarly, the right influence of Muslim votes in national wing Ram Bahadur Rai, chairman of the politics. It is no longer about economic Indira Gandhi National Centre for the deprivation. It is about political exclusion Arts, said the same thing to Outlook in for the Muslim minority. For the first time 2016. in India, the governing party has no Muslim MP in the Lok Sabha (lower THE RISE OF CRONY CAPITALISM house of parliament). In the present Lok Sabha, there are only 22 Muslims, The Modi government’s reforms have accounting for 4.2% of the total number put India on a rocky road to capitalism. of MPs. In November 2016, the government announced that, effective immediately, In Uttar Pradesh, where Muslims all 500 and 1,000 rupee notes were no constitute nearly 20% of the total longer legal tender. The announcement population, the BJP did not field a single sent India’s cash-soaked economy that Muslim candidate. This is a clear signal amounted to about 80% of all cash in of political disenfranchisement for the circulation into a complete spin. Muslim minority in India. The government is trying to dismantle the As if this wasn’t enough, a few months consociational model of power sharing later the government legislated to by replacing it with majoritarian tyranny. introduce a national goods and services tax (GST) to replace a series of excise,

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sales and cross-state border taxes. Indian state, Uttar Pradesh, which has a Small and medium-scale industries, population of 210 million. India is only along with the informal sector, have 80% Hindu and deeply split on caste been hit badly. They have either shut and regional lines, whereas Turkey is down or are on the verge of collapse. 99.8% Muslim. Turkey is more or less a Big corporates, in turn, have not faced developed country, while India still has a an impact at all as they neither deal in long way to go to reach that point. Islam, cash so much, nor do they get affected on which Erdogan rides as proponents by something like GST. of Hindutva point out, is a global religion. The recent example of granting a nonexistent university the status of an On the other hand, Hinduism is the “institution of eminence” has further dominant religion only in India and established the government corporation Nepal. An average Indian prides nexus. These corporates are now themselves on principles of tolerance, controlling the state agenda and non-violence and coexistence, which creating a perception of development are part of every Indian teaching. Unlike through an effective perception Turkey, India has been partitioned on management campaign. Wealth is being the lines of religion and, as such, the concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, majority of Indians understand the ills and this is having devastating and trauma of religious divide. consequences for hundreds of millions of the poorest people in India, not to Unlike Turkey, India’s democracy is mention the middle class. deeply entrenched, making it less vulnerable to be ruled by a strongman. Compared to Turkey, then, India has a For most Indians, it is difficult to imagine better democratic framework, but it is the country following in Turkey’s under threat. Modi continues to win key footsteps to become a majoritarian state-level elections. His party is on the illiberal democracy with an autocrat in verge of gaining a majority in the upper charge. No political party in India has house of parliament. The BJP already ever won more than half the seats in the has one of its members elected as general elections with a vote share of president, Ram Nath Kovind. A lack of just 31%. Far from spelling the end of a effective opposition and a subservient fractured polity, the 2014 results show national media are helping Modi on his just how fragmented the votes were. It is way. The future of the India’s precisely because of this that the BJP democracy is at high risk. was able to win 282 seats with just 31% of the votes. Of course, there are important differences between Turkey and India. With such a huge majority, the BJP has For starters, Turkey’s population, at 81 been able to skillfully attempt to million, is less than half that of just one delegitimize all other parties. It does this

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by accusing — via national and local While many details of the 2019 race still media — the opposition of being “anti- remain unknown, its structural drivers national.” are quickly coming into view. Rahul Gandhi and the once-dithering 2019 GENERAL ELECTION Congress appear more focused and consistent. The opposition, at least India’s till recently divided opposition rhetorically, is embracing the need to has seized on a new way to counter forge a common anti-BJP front. Prime Minister Modi. They have done so by bringing national and regional rivals For the BJP, the 2019 election may just together to take on the ruling party. The turn from a cakewalk to a contest. reversal of the BJP’s fortunes in the Though it is true that Modi and the BJP state of Karnataka — where it won the may have not yet achieved the degree most seats but was ousted in May by a of “state capture” that Erdogan and his coalition of the Congress party and the Justice and Development Party have in regional Janata Dal (Secular), in spite of Turkey, they are also 11 years behind. intense attempts by the BJP to form a government — marks one more election If not countered effectively, Modi may loss at the hands of a united opposition. very well have powers to do just about anything he wants. With no qualified Despite a string of state poll victories, opposition to effectually checkmate him, alliances have thwarted Modi in the the prime minister may just be able to 2015 Bihar state elections and in the transgress all democratic and recent Uttar Pradesh and Bihar by- constitutional norms. elections. The path that both Erdogan and Modi The spate of losses in the Lok Sabha are on is similar enough to invite by-elections indicates that the BJP comparison and provoke concern. cannot take the opposition unity lightly in Warning bells are ringing: With the run-up to the general elections in upcoming elections in India in spring 2019. The margin of losses shows the 2019, will voters heed the alarm? opposition has managed to transfer its votes to joint candidature. The author would like to remain Moreover, recent events suggest that anonymous and has used a the BJP’s electoral coalition is showing pseudonym. signs of strain. Existing BJP allies are voicing concerns about the party’s methods, raising the possibility that its electoral coalition could fracture. These ruptures may potentially complicate the BJP’s electoral arithmetic in 2019.

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EUROPE vulnerable to further mistreatment — malnutrition, rape, forced labor, disease and even death. The whole thing is a Italy’s Migration Policy: A depressing catalogue of abuse and Dark Trade-Off on Human perfect guide to dehumanization. What’s more, Libya is in the throes of armed Rights conflict. The resulting lack of rule of law Sophia Akram makes tackling the criminal networks March 28, 2018 responsible for smuggling and trafficking even more difficult. Italy’s policies have failed migrants and refugees crossing from Libya, and Part of the reason migrants and things are about to get much worse. refugees traveling through Libya receive such a menacing reception is that Libya Italy’s migration policies have been is not a party to the 1951 Refugee formidable. Returning boats headed to Convention or its 1967 protocol. It its shores, compelling NGOs to cease therefore does not recognize the right to sea rescue missions and paying Libya asylum, allow UNHCR to operate in the to stop migrants leaving have all helped country and its detention facilities do not to curb migration. But it does so by comply with international standards. It trading off people’s dignity. With Italy’s should therefore not be considered a March elections having capitalized on safe country to return people to. anti-immigrant sentiment, the situation is not likely to improve. Europe’s policy has so far been focused on keeping migrants out of Europe. Most of us are aware of the perils that Boats are returned, and now the UN as face migrants trying to cross the well as the EU and the African Union Mediterranean Sea. Between January are helping to return and repatriate 2012 and December 2017, UNHCR migrants. This has been criticized for, recorded 14,557 deaths from sea firstly, the above-mentioned reason that crossings between Libya and Italy. In Libya is not a safe country to return to. addition, the International Committee of Secondly, some have stated that there the Red Cross said that deaths has not been due consideration for occurring en route from countries of people’s individual circumstances. origin are “critically underreported.” Of Irregular migration through Libya those who survive the journey, many will happens for a variety of reasons: war, have harrowing memories of sexual persecution, crippling poverty, as well as assault at the hands of armed gangs or other causes. of being flung into situations of slave labor or torture by soldiers. For many, returning home may not be safe and they must be resettled as Others are sold like chattel or detained quickly as possible. in unthinkable conditions where they are

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Thousands have been repatriated since But tough immigration policies should November 2017 and the International not trade off human rights obligations Organization for Migration says that either domestically or internationally. those the numbers held in detention has decreased fivefold. If the numbers are The results of Italy’s national elections accurate, this is in part a positive sign. have revealed no clear majority, but the However, estimates for the numbers of fear is that control will go to the far right. migrants in Libya are up to 1 million, If Italy’s migration policies are falling meaning that much more work needs to short of the mark now, they are only be done. likely to get worse.

On the whole, Europe’s approach to Libya’s crisis has been short-term and Sophia Akram is a researcher. After anti-immigrant. Return operations run completing an LLB in Law, she attained the risk of trying to achieve targets a master’s in international politics and without due consideration for what’s human rights at City University London, best to the person being returned. while providing research, program, policy and communication support in Instead of centering policies on keeping Whitehall departments and prominent migrants out of Europe, European policy nongovernmental organizations. She should focus on how to curb irregular has a special interest in human rights and unsafe migration. Addressing root and forced migration, particularly across causes, using diplomatic ties to help Asia. broker peace, designing smart, sustainable programming in countries of origin that provide people with access to The Murder of Daphne livelihoods are all available options. Instead of short-term policies that entrap Caruana Galizia, Six Months people in horrific conditions, Italy and its On European neighbors should compel Rebecca Vincent Libya to sign and ratify the International April 16, 2018 Refugee Convention. Six months after Daphne Caruana International partners do already Galizia’s assassination shook the world, contribute to achieving some of these attacks on journalists across the EU are interventions but their results have not becoming a new reality. been as visible as those achieved by Italy’s Interior Marco Minniti under whom On a Monday afternoon last October, six arrivals from Libya may have been months ago today, journalist Daphne reduced by up to 87%. This may have Caruana Galizia finished what would be proven popular among Italian voters for her last blog post, closing with the now whom immigration is a hot potato issue. well-known lines: “There are crooks

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everywhere you look. The situation is Malta in March in part to attempt to get desperate.” Around half an hour later, some information about the progress of she was killed by a car bomb that the investigation into Caruana Galizia’s detonated as she drove away from her murder. I requested a meeting with home in Bidnija, Malta. Police Commissioner Lawrence Cutajar to discuss the investigation. Despite Caruana Galizia was a courageous multiple e-mails and calls, I received investigative journalist known for her nothing but a perfunctory relentless and detailed exposure of acknowledgement from a police corruption, including through her constable. blogging and her reporting on the Panama Papers. Her murder shocked My request piqued some interest in the the world. The blatant assassination of a local media. I was asked about it in journalist in broad daylight in an EU several interviews. The Dutch state was simply unthinkable. But six ambassador to Malta, Joop Nijssen, months later, it is sadly becoming a new even weighed in on Twitter: “Hope reality. Journalist Jan Kusiak and his @rebecca_vincent gets requested partner Martina Kusnirova were meetings.” People started to comment murdered in Slovakia in February. on it everywhere I went, with many Journalists in Bulgaria and Croatia have joking that I should have invited him for reported receiving death threats in rabbit — a reference to footage Caruana recent months. It also emerged that Galizia had published showing Cutajar nearly 200 journalists needed police leaving a restaurant famous for its rabbit protection in Italy in 2017. dishes and refusing to comment on a breaking scandal related to Pilatus Bank Many of these attacks and threats have in April 2017. But there was still no been against investigative journalists response to my request, despite the fact who report on corruption and organized that I made it clear that RSF’s interest crime, making it more important than was in the independence and ever to understand the conditions that effectiveness of the investigation. allow for such attacks to happen, and how they might be prevented. But in the However, there was plenty of other case of Daphne Caruana Galizia, business to attend to, as a cluster of despite the arrests of three men hearings in 26 separate libel lawsuits suspected of carrying out the attack against Caruana Galizia was taking against her, the pursuit of justice has so place during my trip, on March 1. In far led to more questions than answers. total, 34 civil libel cases continue against Caruana Galizia posthumously, PROGRESS OF THE INVESTIGATION as under Maltese law, it is the plaintiff’s decision whether to withdraw such As the UK bureau director for Reporters cases in the event of the defendant’s Without Borders (RSF), I travelled to death. At the time she was murdered,

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Caruana Galizia had been facing a total that served as a sword of Damocles, an of 42 civil defamation lawsuits, as well ever-present threat that had already as five criminal defamation lawsuits; the resulted in her bank account being criminal cases were de facto closed frozen the last eight months of her life, upon Caruana Galizia’s death, per that could have seen her jailed at any Maltese law. moment, and that diverted significant time from her journalistic work. This was The 34 cases that continue have been on top of the extensive harassment and brought by powerful figures in Malta, threats she had been receiving for among them Prime Minister Joseph years. Muscat, his Chief of Staff Keith Schembri, Minister for Tourism Konrad SALT ON THE WOUNDS Mizzi and businessman Silvio Debono — the latter of whom has filed 19 Whilst in Malta, I also took part in a vigil separate suits against Caruana Galizia on 2 March marking 10 years since the for a single blog post of 19 sentences. launch of Caruana Galizia’s blog, The lawyer acting for Debono in these Running Commentary. More than 200 cases, William Cuschieri, is also the supporters gathered at Parliament defense lawyer for one of the three Square and progressed to the makeshift suspects currently arraigned in memorial to Caruana Galizia at the connection with Caruana Galizia’s Great Siege Monument outside the law murder. courts in central Valletta. I had taken part in other vigils in London since Despite the high number of proceedings Caruana Galizia’s murder, but there was scheduled on March 2, nothing something very different and incredibly substantive really happened. Some moving in joining her supporters in cases were postponed due to the Malta. lawyer’s illness, some were postponed as the lawyer asked for more time, and Despite having worked closely on the 19 cases filed by Debono were Caruana Galizia’s case for months, until postponed as the lawyer failed to bring I actually traveled to the country it was any witnesses to court. One of the not clear to me just how embattled her witnesses, who represents a supporters remain. These are not only government entity, Projects Malta, was her personal supporters, but Malta’s held in contempt of court for failing to pro-human rights, anti-corruption appear. movement. Yet they are frequently attacked by supporters of the Labor Despite the frustrations of the courtroom government, through an elaborate and experience that day, it gave me a incessant range of pressures, from glimpse of what Caruana Galizia was microaggressions to more blatant acts, facing at the time of her murder: a such as smears in the media and the constant barrage of vexatious lawsuits

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repeated destruction of the memorial to our hope that such actions will increase Caruana Galizia. pressure on the Maltese authorities — who clearly care about their international After the March 2 vigil, the agitators image — to ensure full justice for this were considerate enough to wait a full horrific attack. two days before destroying the memorial again in the dead of night — a Six months on, the challenge remains to spiteful act seemingly aimed at rubbing sustain international attention to salt in the wounds of Caruana Galizia’s Caruana Galizia’s case, and to build loved ones and supporters. momentum for demands for full justice for all those involved in the planning and Perhaps destroying this powerful visual carrying out of her murder. The time and again is also intended to masterminds as well as the perpetrators remove it from the curious glances of must be identified and prosecuted to the the many tourists who walk past the full extent of the law. Anything short central location — so many, in fact, that would not only be an injustice for some tour guides have begun to include Caruana Galizia, but would also leave it in their stops. the door open for further attacks on journalists. A Within the day, the memorial was back up, more prominent than before. As clear and resolute message must be Caroline Muscat, co-founder and sent that violent attacks against journalist of investigative outlet The Shift journalists will not be tolerated, not in News, wrote, Caruana Galizia’s Malta, not in broader Europe, not supporters would be there bigger, bolder anywhere, for an attack on a journalist and stronger with each attempt to anywhere is an attack on journalism silence them: “It is going to take so and, in turn, an attack on democracy much more than removing some flowers itself. and candles to silence calls for justice following the assassination of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia.” Rebecca Vincent is the UK bureau director for Reporters Without Borders, Just as the calls for justice continue in known internationally as Reporters sans Malta, so do RSF’s abroad. In London, frontières (RSF). She is a human rights we are gathering today for a vigil to campaigner, writer and former US honor Caruana Galizia’s life and work diplomat. Vincent has worked with a and to call again for full justice for her wide range of international and murder, in parallel with similar actions Azerbaijani NGOs, and has published taking part in cities across Europe and widely on human rights issues. in the US. We are also holding an event at the House of Commons to mobilize members of Parliament in this case. It is

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Will Trump and Macron’s European liberalism. Under Macron, France has stepped up its commitment Special Relationship in the Sahel and taken the lead in Survive? creating the G5, a military force tasked Cécile Guerin with pushing back Islamist movements May 8, 2018 in the Sahara.

Emmanuel Macron has failed to change In his dealings with Trump, Macron has Donald Trump’s mind on the question of managed to be critical of the American the Iran nuclear deal. administration without alienating his American counterpart. That Macron and The purpose of French President Trump have a seemingly cordial Emmanuel Macron’s first state visit to relationship seems surprising given their the US last month was explicit: political differences and Trump’s salvaging the Iran nuclear deal and admiration for autocratic leaders like convincing President Donald Trump not Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Yet to reimpose sanctions. On January 12, Macron is the first international leader to the Trump administration extended be hosted at the White House for an sanction relief for Iran by four months. official state visit. Macron’s encounters Pressure is now on for US Congress with Trump stand in sharp contrast with and Europe to address what the the American president’s cold president has called “disastrous flaws” interactions with German Chancellor in the deal that was agreed in 2015. Angela Merkel and UK Prime Minister Theresa May. In the run-up to Macron’s visit, President Trump signaled his willingness to Speaking on the BBC’s Andrew Marr consider a revised nuclear deal. The Show, Macron claimed he is always American liberal press welcomed “extremely direct” with the American Macron’s visit and his attempt to president. Despite their political influence Trump’s foreign policy. Days differences, both Trump and Macron after the meeting, however, Macron and have built their political success by his team seem less sure than ever that differentiating themselves from their the US will stick to the agreement. predecessors.

Record-low approval ratings and a Trump has put his efforts into undoing series of labor strikes have hit Macron’s Barack Obama’s foreign policy. Macron government. On the international stage, has condemned former President by contrast, Macron has achieved a François Hollande’s inaction in Syria series of diplomatic victories since during the 2013 chemical attacks and taking office. His speech on climate has been equally critical of Nicolas change (“Make the planet great again”) Sarkozy’s handling of the Libyan crisis has established him as a central voice in during his presidency.

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THE LIMITS OF THE “SPECIAL shown the difficulty of balancing RELATIONSHIP” diverging interests in countries affected by political conflict and instability. Despite his activism on the international Months after Macron hosted talks stage, Macron’s ability to sway Trump is between the Western-backed Libyan open to question. Prior to his visit, leader Fayez al-Sarraj and General Macron suggested he had convinced Khalifa Haftar, political progress in Libya Trump to maintain American military has stalled with no end to political presence in Syria — a claim denied by instability in sight. the White House. On the question of the Iran nuclear deal, Macron has also A POLITICAL VICTORY? failed to change the president’s mind. Because Macron’s negotiation with After hours of intensive talks with the Trump has failed to achieve its goals, French president, Trump described the the trip didn’t score any political nuclear agreement as “insane” and victories. Nonetheless, Macron’s “ridiculous.” Recent days have seen a diplomatic venture confirmed his growing momentum against the ambition to fill the leadership vacuum in agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Europe at a time when Angela Merkel’s Benjamin Netanyahu, for example, coalition faces difficulties in Germany accused Iran to be “brazenly lying” and the UK grapples with the about its nuclear ambitions. ramifications of Brexit.

At the same time, Macron’s negotiation Macron’s government has placed tactics with Trump are likely to put him effective communication at the heart of at odds with his European counterparts. France’s international policy. Macron’s The members of the agreement have speech on climate change made him an opposed a hypothetical “new nuclear international celebrity, while his deal” briefly taunted by Trump and have reception for Donald Trump and his wife been adamant that it should be Melania on Bastille Day last year was preserved as it is. Not only did Macron’s greeted as a political success by the political gamble not yield results, it has press. also drawn criticisms that he is compromising too much with the During his recent visit, Macron gave a American administration. After his three- speech before Congress in English, day visit, Macron was forced to concede reiterating his support for the Paris that Trump is likely to “get rid of the deal Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear on his own, for domestic reasons.” deal. While less viral than his climate change speech, Macron’s address to Iran is not the only illustration of the Congress still fulfilled a similar purpose: limits of Macron’s diplomacy. Macron’s strengthening his international aura. involvement in the Libyan conflict has

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Diplomacy is one of Macron’s strengths. deadline has been extended to mid- The French president may be facing November, there is still worry that no strikes and discontent at home, but his deal would be reached as the hyperactivity abroad has earned him negotiating partners still have complex political points in France. While 6 out of issues to agree on. 10 French voters disapprove of Macron’s domestic record, 63% believe There are significant differences that his election has had a positive between potential Brexit scenarios: A impact on France’s image, according to “soft” Brexit would have a far less a recent IFOP poll. extensive economic impact than a “hard” Brexit. In the beginning of Following his election to the French negotiations, the main question was presidency, Macron faced accusations whether the UK remains a member of of inexperience. Almost a year after the EU’s single market or not. In this soft taking office, he has managed to shake Brexit scenario, the economic side off his image as a newcomer on the effects on both the UK and European international stage. Whether his activism Union would be minimized. By will achieve substantial results and the maintaining access to the single market, “special relationship” with Trump will the UK would continue to be obliged by stand the test of time remains to be the “four freedoms” (free movement of seen. goods, services, capital and persons within the EU), EU standards and the European Court of Justice. In exchange, Cécile Guerin is a London-based Britain would be able to enjoy economic freelance writer. benefits of trade and close economic cooperation with the EU.

Brexit: The Countdown Has However, as a non-EU member, the political implications of the withdrawal Begun would mean that the UK no longer has a Orsolya Raczova say in the political machinery of the September 26, 2018 block, including formal representation with decision-making power in EU The window to agree on an exit deal institutions. In practice, this means no between Britain and the EU is closing. voting rights or influence over EU laws the UK would still have to abide by. The United Kingdom is due to leave the Therefore, such high political costs, European Union on March 29, 2019, but together with the maintenance of the because of the necessary ratification free flow of people, makes the soft procedures of an agreement, the plan option less attractive despite the was to reach a deal by the EU summit potential economic benefits. Some starting October 18. Although this optimists keep the option for a soft

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Brexit open, but is it still a realistic under WTO rules, the export-import scenario given the past two years of costs will significantly increase with negotiations? additional layers of red tape, affecting not only manufacturers and traders, but The supporters of a hard Brexit consider the economy as a whole. Thus, there is such costs from a soft Brexit too high, a shock to prepare for if such a scenario and they demand a clean break, becomes reality. including the withdrawal from the single market and the customs union. The economic impacts do not only affect Therefore, a hard Brexit has not only the trading of physical products, but also been on the table as a viable option services — a sector on which the UK since the beginning of the referendum, relies highly. As the single market’s but it was confirmed by leaders, largest provider of financial services, in including Prime Minister Theresa May 2014 alone the UK exported £20 billion herself, that the UK intends to leave the worth of services to customers in the single market. If Britain withdraws from EU. Therefore, London, as the leading the single market, the economic costs financial center of Europe, is at high are expected to be high, but could be risk. Without single market membership, somewhat softened by a potential financial services firms would lose their transition period. Such a period would passporting rights. The passporting give additional time for the negotiating system enables such firms authorized in partners to not only reach agreement on an EU or European Economic Area key issues, but to work out deals on state to trade freely with each other. trade between the UK and members of According to the Financial Conduct the EU. There is disagreement on Authority, 5,500 UK companies rely on whether the transition period would help such rights, with a combined revenue of or not, given the rather slow pace of £9 billion. Thus, the loss would be negotiations in the past years. significant.

The European Union is the UK’s largest What are financial services firms likely and most important trading partner. In to do and how can they navigate such a 2017, the EU accounted for 43% of UK high-risk situation? They can relocate or exports, or £274 billion ($360 billion) out partially move branches, departments, of £616 billion ($811 billion) total. services and even entire operations to Therefore, if no deal is reached on post- the EU. The Financial Times estimates Brexit trade relations, the EU’s that about 4,600 banks would be economic losses would account for 0.7 relocated from London, while the % of its overall GDP, while costs for the accounting firm Ernst & Young UK would be significantly higher; over a estimates some 10,500 job relocations 10-year period, 5% of the UK’s GDP from the City of London on the first day would be reduced. Therefore, without of Brexit. Since the referendum, out of the single market membership and the 222 largest financial services firms

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with significant operations in the UK, was a trainee at the European Central 24% have confirmed at least one Bank and the European Parliament. relocation destination, and 34% are Raczova holds an MA in Non- considering or have already confirmed Proliferation and International Security relocations to Europe, according to the from King’s College London, an MSc in EY Brexit Tracker. Firms including JP Politics and Communication from the Morgan and Bank of America are London School of Economics, a BA in among the major financial services International Business Relations from providers that have already confirmed Oxford Brookes University, and a BA in relocations of hundreds, and in many International Relations from the cases thousands, of jobs to an EU International Business School Budapest. country. Relocation plans target for She also attended the Harvard example, Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris, University Summer School and the Mid Berlin or Frankfurt. Sweden University as an exchange student. While some are already preparing, others are still waiting to see what kind of deal will be reached. However, at this The People of France Want stage, the deadline is dangerously close. The fact is that the EU reacted to Be Heard negatively to British proposals at the Sophie Hunter recent EU meeting in Salzburg, labeling December 14, 2018 many as cherry-picking, while the UK has not provided a viable alternative By displaying a tin ear to the concerns acceptable to the EU yet. A no-deal of the gilets jaunes protests, President scenario is becoming a real possibility Emmanuel Macron remains fatefully out with serious potential consequences. of touch.

A new revolution is on its way in the Orsolya Raczova is a research fellow country that invented the guillotine. A at GLOBSEC Policy Institute. She is new emperor, more at home at the currently focusing on EU-level political gilded palaces of Rothschild and the and policy developments, particularly in winding corridors of power, is now the area of security, migration and asking his people to eat cake when they Brexit. She previously worked as a often can’t afford a simple baguette. political risk analyst at Global Risk French President Emmanuel Macron is Insights, as a research fellow at a woefully out of touch and his people Hungarian NGO, as a program have taken again to the streets as a coordinator at the Berlin-based Institute result. for Cultural Diplomacy, and as a public relations assistant at Publicis Across France, a tired police force of Consultants Budapest. Moreover, she 89,000 will be facing mobs on December 15, a fifth consecutive

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weekend of protests. A top police chief Macron came to power in 2017 claiming has declared that this level of violence is to be an outsider. His La République En unprecedented. On December 5, mobs Marche! movement was supposed to burned down a famous law firm, two liberate France from the shackles of high schools and several cars in Paris. party politics. Literally meaning “the They looted shops in the historic Place republic on the move,” the party has Vendôme and Rue de Rivoli. now fizzled out to give way to a revolution on the march. The protests The “gilets jaunes,” as the protesters have led to a climate of fear in the have come to be known because of their country. Even though the government high-visibility yellow vests, were joined has caved in and withdrawn fuel tax by high school students, road transport hikes that sparked the protests, popular unionists and farmers. On December 3, unrest continues. This plays into the 200 high schools shut down after hands of Marine Le Pen’s renamed far- students rallied to protest against the right National Rally party, which now latest education reforms. Road transport has a much better shot at the Élysée. unions, the General Confederation of Labor (CGT) and the Workers’ Force THE CLASH OF THE CLASSES (FO) union syndicates have called for a general strike. These mass protests are Once the gilets jaunes movement testing the mettle of a feckless started, testimonies of thousands of government. people have been pouring out on social media. One of these has gone viral. The gilets jaunes and other protesters Paul is a 40-year-old delivery driver who have united out of disgust for Macron’s lives in the north of France. He earns arrogance. Some hold the view that he the minimum salary of €1,184 ($1,337) a suffers from pervers narcissique. In month. He has three children and a wife, simple English, Macron could best be who doesn’t work. They live hand-to- described as a smooth-talking mouth, with no money left after food, narcissistic pervert. utility bills and rent. He is not poor enough to get full state benefits and not When abroad, the French president rich enough to lead anything but a conveys an image of a liberal and hardscrabble life. The €600 per month progressive leader who is holding back that Paul gets in social benefits is barely the mighty tide of populist nationalism, enough for his family to get by. saving France and Europe from disaster in the process. At home, this image Paul’s family may not be living in does not quite wash. For too many, he heartrending poverty seen in the represents France’s out-of-touch, elite, developing world, but this sort of dilution business school-trained political upper of living standards goes against class that can no longer hear or France’s ideals. empathize with the people’s concerns.

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Macron’s reforms seem to be hitting social terrorism. So far, the government people like Paul the hardest. Some of has been unable to protect the wealthy the ills of the Anglo-Saxon system have neighborhoods, sparking fear among infected France too. The recently France’s elite. disgraced Carlos Ghosn, the chief executive of the leading French car At heart is a clash over a vision for manufacturer Renault, was earning France. The richer sections of society 1,200 times more than the lowest-paid want to make France more like the US worker at the company and remains in and the UK. For them, the Rothschild his job despite charges of financial banker is the perfect president trimming misconduct. It comes as no surprise that down a bloated French state à la gilets jaunes are looting, pillaging, Margaret Thatcher. plundering and burning shops selling luxury items and cars. Muriel Pénicaud, For others, this is the wrong way the minister of labor, has admitted that forward. They want to reinstate higher jobs simply do not pay enough for lower taxes for the super wealthy, if not the classes to make ends meet. She is wealthy. Marielle de Sarnez challenged planning to reverse this problem by Macron in parliament, declaring that it is decreasing the cost of social time to rewrite the social and civic contributions and increasing the contract in favor of the struggling minimum wage. masses. It is important to remember that this discontent with the government is France’s convoluted laws and infamous not new. Both Nicolas Sarkozy and red tape do not help. On December 5, François Hollande were failed one-term bakers in Normandy went to court for presidents who fell prey to popular selling bread seven days a week. disillusionment. Macron rose to power French law imposes one day off per exploiting that sentiment. week for all businesses, facing a €3,000 penalty if they don’t comply. The bakers Ironically, he was the one who extended argued that if they respected the law, working hours in 2015 as minister of the they would have to fire two of their economy. Emmanuel Valls, then-prime employees and close their shop. In light minister, relied on Article 49.3 of the of such trying economic circumstances, French Constitution to pass the law restrictive laws have to go. They were without a vote. Macron’s new reforms once drafted with good intentions but aimed at attracting capital back to now pave the way to a Kafkaesque hell. France to “unlock economic growth” are old wine in a new bottle that elites have Parisians from the posh 8th and 16th been trying to sell for years. Those not districts have called upon the army to so privileged are pushing back against protect their elegant Haussmann this very phenomenon by the proverbial mansions. They accuse gilets jaunes of French method of taking to the being a disorganized mob engaged in barricades.

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END OF PROJECT MACRON Macron has two ticking time bombs on his hands: social unrest because of Emmanuel Macron was always growing inequality and economic overrated by the media, particularly in transition due to environmental Britain and America. He won 24% of the concerns. Nicolas Hulot, the former vote in the first round of elections in minister for ecology, tried unsuccessfully 2017, with Le Pen coming second with to address both these problems. He 21.3%. In the second round, the French took the view that the government must rallied behind Macron as they did behind reconcile “the end of the world with the Jacques Chirac in 2002. On both end of the month.” That is what Macron occasions, they wanted to keep the far promised to do, but so far Project right from coming to power, but at the Macron has failed completely and last election, Marine Le Pen did much irrevocably. better than her father, former National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. Her To understand Project Macron, one has party gained 50% more votes than it did to study modern France. La grande in 2002. nation prides itself as the home of liberty, equality and fraternity. Sadly, the By displaying a tin ear to the concerns reality differs from this ideal. In of the gilets jaunes, Macron may have comparison to the United States, signed his political death warrant. The education is almost free. president treated the movement as another strike, which are common in However, as Atul Singh wrote in Fair France, but failed to realize that this Observer last year, the top “positions time the mood was more sombre. In are monopolized almost entirely by contrast to Sarkozy, who faced 100 énarques [graduates of the National days of thugocracy in the outskirts of School of Administration] and graduates Paris in 2005, the gilets jaunes marched of other grande écoles, the top French down the Champs Élysées and seized schools.” He points out how between the Arc de Triomphe — the monument 1987 and 1996, only 5.5% of énarques to modern France. “hailed from working-class backgrounds” in contrast with graduates of Canada’s This is a national protest of les sans- top schools where the number was 25- culottes who are asking for dignity, 30%. As per Singh, “elite French equity and social recognition they have schools perpetuate ‘a tiny caste-like lost in a system dominated by the top aristocracy of wealth and brains’ that 1%. The gilets jaunes are not typical would make inbred Brahmins proud.” French rioters. They are ordinary Success in France is only available to a citizens pushed against a wall who have few lucky ones who manage to get into been crushed by every president since the driving seat. Consequently, they Chirac. make the system serve them, and not vice versa.

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Today, France offers little social who form the bedrock of the gilets mobility. It suffers from archaic elitism jaunes movement. that is not only unjust but also thwarts innovation. The French educational SURVIVING IN THE DESERT system does not teach or reward critical thinking. Instead, it teaches students to The gilets jaunes are protesting mold themselves into the system and because they are fed up with the elite become cogs in an economy of that Macron belongs to. They no longer privilege. Outsiders have little room to want to be bossed about by the breathe. As a result, the French are énarques and want ladders to the top immigrating in large numbers even to echelons of French society. Macron former British colonies such as does not understand their concerns. His Singapore and Hong Kong. knee-jerk response is to throw cash at the problem. Despite concessions to France has a two-tier system of higher increase the minimum wage by €100, education. Public universities comprise cancel taxes on extra working hours as the first, obliged to admit everyone with well as the latest tax imposed on low- a high-school diploma but offering a low income pensioners, the gilets jaunes are standard of education. The prestigious hungry for more meaningful changes grandes écoles form the second tier. within governmental institutions and Created in the Napoleonic age, they structures to allow their voices to be were supposed to foster a meritocratic heard. Macron has failed to address the elite to run the French state. Out went two main issues gilets jaunes care l’ancien régime with its inherited about: more social mobility and a privilege, in came the Napoleonic men sustainable minimum living wage. of merit. There is an inherent link, historically, Over time, these elite schools have between anti-fiscal protests and the ossified and created an incestuous elite withdrawal of public services, according of their own. They judge merit through to the historian Mathilde Larrère. For examinations that might be rigorous but people living in the countryside and the reward conformity. More importantly, outskirts of large cities, it is a daily battle alumni of the grandes écoles have a to find doctors, hospitals, centers for stranglehold on French politics, public services such as social security business, finance and diplomacy. Those or taxes, nurseries and post offices. who attend elite schools are guaranteed Without a doubt, the increase in the fuel top jobs for their lifetime. Over 80% of tax hit a sensitive nerve. top executives in France’s 40 biggest companies — including Emmanuel According to a recent report, 11,300 Macron — come from just three of these municipalities lack doctors and other schools. That might explain his inability medical services. They have been to relate to modern-day sans-culottes labeled “medical deserts.” So under the

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underlying anti-fiscal protests, the gilets the future of the gilets jaunes movement jaunes express anger toward the is uncertain after the terrorist attack in disparity between what they pay in taxes Strasbourg on December 11, one would and what they perceive in terms of hope that politicians have listened and public services — which is not much. will act accordingly. Otherwise people will flock back in the streets. What is also at stake is people’s participation in the making of political The rallying cry Tous à la Bastille! — decisions. For the first time, protesters everyone to the Bastille — that has voice the thorny issue that challenges swept social media evokes 1789, the directly institutions. Condemning a year the royal prison fell to a political class that is not representatives revolutionary mob. The gilets jaunes are of its people, gilets jaunes firmly harking back to those days of demand the creation of a référendum resurrection. Hopefully, this time posh d’initiative citoyenne — a referendum Parisians will not remain as out of touch based on the people’s initiatives. as the French royalty of yore. Already in place in certain European countries and very popular in Switzerland, this system allows Sophie Hunter is a French law parliament to review a project of law if a graduate from the School of Oriental certain amount of signatures is reached. and African Studies, University of In addition, the gilets jaunes also London, with a previous background in demand the power to revoke a political international politics, management and representative or change the Russian language. She wrote her constitution based on a citizen-led undergraduate dissertation on the referendum. impact of US foreign policy on the rise of terrorism in Iraq and the emergence of The debate between representative or the Islamic State. Her experience direct democracy goes back to the 18th ranges from charity work — Médecins century. Montesquieu and Rousseau Sans Frontières and the Center for opposed each other on the issue. The Criminal Appeals — to interning at the gilets jaunes’ frustration echoes what International Commercial Chamber of Rousseau wrote regarding the social Paris Court of Appeal. Hunter has a contract, namely that citizens become keen interest to specialize at master the slaves of parliamentarians once level in Arctic and polar law. She has elected. lived in Australia, France, Russia and the UK. The demands of today’s protesters echo those made during the French Revolution and should be listened to, because they deal with the essence democracy and citizens’ rights. When

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LATIN AMERICA & THE The judiciary itself is playing a prominent role in this process of CARIBBEAN fragmentation. An analysis by Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Brazil’s Drama of Unpredictability Index (BTI), a project that evaluates the Manuela Andreoni quality of democracy, market economy January 22, 2018 and governance in 129 developing and transition countries, points to the fact A court decision this week may cost that the lead prosecutor, Federal Judge former President Lula da Silva his Sérgio Moro, was accused of unilaterally candidacy in Brazil’s upcoming investigating members of the PT. presidential election. Meanwhile, acting President Michel Temer already indicated that the battle As Brazil braces for its most important against corruption is not a focus of his election in decades, hopes of presidency. stabilization are dwindling. The country is slowly stepping out of an almost three For good reason, as the forthcoming year-long recession, but uncertainty 2018 BTI country report states, “Various over what will happen at the ballot corruption allegations have threatened boxes later on this year is pushing to destabilize his government, debate on how to resume growth into a implicating at least half a dozen distant future. members of his cabinet and even the president himself.” The main reason lies in the wide- ranging corruption investigation, which According to early opinion polls, over has sent over 100 officials to the political 30% of voters would vote for Lula, equivalent of a guillotine. The possibility putting him around 20 percentage points of a conviction for corruption might bar ahead of the second most popular even the leading presidential candidate, candidate in multiple scenarios. At the former President Luiz Inácio Lula da same time, 54% of the country would Silva, the leader of the Worker’s Party like to see him behind bars. “He is (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT), from obviously the candidate with the best running for office. chances to face the elections, if it depends on the inclination of voters,” Lula was sentenced to more than nine says Fabio Wanderley Reis, a political years imprisonment for corruption and scientist and emeritus professor at the money laundering in July last year, and Federal University of Minas Gerais. “The a federal court will hear his appeal on obstruction of his candidacy could have January 24, 2018. An unfavorable dramatic consequences.” decision would stop his campaign short. The divide over his fate evidences how The overwhelming impact of the polarized Brazil has become. corruption investigations, which started

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with Operation Car Wash in 2014, came São Paulo State Governor Geraldo with drastic reforms in the Brazilian Alckmin. While Alckmin’s popularity in electoral system. Now it is illegal to the country is in the single digits, some receive donations from corporations, analysts believe a familiar face might traditionally the main funders of appeal to voters in a scenario of chaos, presidential campaigns, and online even though Alckmin is grappling with campaigning through social media has his own corruption scandal. been made legal, making way for new electoral strategies. THE IMPACTS OF INSTABILITY

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES The unpredictability of politics fuels anxiety surrounding the country’s future. Professor Nara Pavão, a political “The expectation that things might settle scientist with the Federal University of down is precarious,” says Wanderley Pernambuco, sees two contradicting Reis. “There are multiple possibilities options about what might happen after that would mean even more intense polling stations close this October. drama.” The reluctance of Brazil’s congress to approve President Michel The first one is that, in possession of Temer’s much promised pension reform information about corruption allegations is the latest example of the impact the against traditional politicians, Brazilians instability has for policymaking. will choose newcomers. The scenario could favor candidate Jair Bolsonaro, a Those were some of the conclusions the radical right-winger who supported rating agency Standard & Poor’s came Brazil’s military dictatorship and its to as it downgraded Brazil further into practices of torture. He ranks second in junk-status territory, from BB to BB-. most early opinion polls. “The uncertainties surrounding the election outcome, in our view, make it The other scenario, Pavão says, is that, less likely that a new president with solid amid chaos and knowing that most of political capital could be able to quickly the politicians they have ever known are pass constitutional changes to somehow involved in corruption scams, meaningfully alleviate spending and those issues will cease to be a deterring revenue bottlenecks,” its report said. factor, and voters will go back to what they know. As Brazil pushes debate over reforms to give way to its contentious elections, This scenario favors candidates from challenges to lifting the country are the two big parties that have run the mounting. With more than 30 political political establishment for the last 20 parties, the country needs to find a way years, the PT and the Social Democratic to stop political fragmentation in order to Party (Partido da Social Democracia construct more stable administrations. Brasileira, PSDB), which will run with Coming out of a persistent recession

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that depleted Brazil’s ability to invest, Nicolás Maduro: The New the next administration will have to concentrate on recovering the state Tropical Czar Has No finances while making social programs Clothes more efficient. “The right mix of Leonardo Vivas intervention and laissez faire will be of May 25, 2018 crucial importance,” the 2018 BTI country report on Brazil concludes. Maduro may still be in office, but nothing in the Venezuelan landscape looks rosy There is a possibility that the thirst for for the government. stability necessary for these reforms might overcome uncertainties. Some On May 20, Nicolás Maduro was re- share hope for a more predictable elected president of Venezuela after an country after the 2018 elections. election almost everyone within and outside the country dubbed not free and “Elections have this function of restoring fair. He presided over a process where the political pact in a country,” Pavão most main political adversaries were says. But the reaction to Lula’s fate jailed, exiled or disqualified, the could drag an already exhausted society government controlled every bit of news, to the peak of drama, demolishing the and it organized a vast operation of possibility that the elections could pave vote-for-food with the use of a special ID a way to solving the country’s many card. conflicts. The obvious question following the election is how long he will remain in Manuela Andreoni is a Brazilian power as Venezuela suffers a deep journalist. She has worked for economic crisis and the government newspapers, magazines and television experiments with a level of international programs in Brazil and abroad, such as pressure and isolation few countries The Sunday Times, The Globe and Mail, have experienced in recent years. O Globo, Agência Pública and BBC Panorama. She currently is a reporter at Whenever a country enters a long Columbia Journalism Investigations. phase of plights and political submission that look unsolvable and menace to become permanent, and when it all occurs under a strongman’s fist, all gazes turn to the leader in power. This happened in the old days of the Soviet Union, in Cuba with Fidel Castro, in Augusto Pinochet’s Chile, in Zimbabwe with Robert Mugabe (until it didn’t), and

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in many others. This is clearly the case AFTER CHÁVEZ of Venezuela. But as Chávez passed away in 2013, he Until recently, Maduro was the babbling, left a troubling legacy to his hand-picked inexperienced and inadequate heir of successor, Nicolás Maduro. The Hugo Chávez, who built a powerhouse economy, entering the downward part of in Latin America, fueled by oil and the oil price cycle, began a drastic championed by his populist nationalism crunch, accumulating external debt, and anti-US rhetoric. But after 2014, and growing fiscal deficits and higher more so in 2017, Maduro was able to inflation. What began as typical outmaneuver both his foes in the economic disequilibrium soon turned democratic camp and his internal into outright crisis: a loss of a third of adversaries, even while the nation’s GDP in a few years, huge shortages of economy was going down the drain. food and medicine, hyperinflation, and the inability to provide basic services Chávez presided over the longest high- like electricity and water supply. But oil-price boom (2004-2012) that different to earlier experiences of Venezuela has experienced in its almost macroeconomic disturbances in the century-long history as an oil economy. region, Venezuela’s woes also This brought the country steady (though originated in the extreme centralization only mild) growth, a huge consumption of economic decisions (and property) in boom, allowing the populist leader to the hands of an inefficient state. address unsolved problems like primary health care and malnutrition that had By reversing the mildly repressive accumulated over decades. It also led to tradition of his predecessor, who always numerous gargantuan projects in sought political solutions and infrastructure, railways, oil and gas international support for his policies processing plants that never saw the while dismantling a long-standing day, and an orgy of nationalizations that democracy, Maduro today incarnates ended up creating a deep black hole of the rebirth of the classic Latin American corruption. dictatorship of the 20th century built on the barrel of a gun. Political discontent Chávez’s proclivity to personalistic and in 2014 met a brutal response from the authoritarian rule, though, did not resort police, national guard and armed to drastic repression in order to grant militias. political stability. His rule fitted the trendy political science characterization The result was dozens killed, hundreds of hybrid regimes or competitive wounded, thousands of protesters authoritarianism where the judiciary is imprisoned without due process, and packed with followers, political important leaders put behind bars. The adversaries disqualified and the press prosecution and the judiciary have obstructed but not silenced. effectively become institutional

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mechanisms at the service of curbing All these factors led to the “spring of dissent. discontent,” with massive rallies across the country, a world campaign by the Shortly after, however, in December Venezuelan diaspora and increasing 2015 the country woke up to a new pressure from countries around the situation: Maduro and his regime lost globe. This was to no avail: Maduro the national assembly (NA) in a blatant remained in power, staged several defeat, becoming a ruling minority in a rounds of rigged elections (both national country that increasingly despises them. and local), and continued to rule over a As a result, the coalition in power — country where economic collapse has including the military, a majority of deepened, a humanitarian crisis grows governors, the ruling party (with a in intensity by the day, and close to 3 consistent social base of government million Venezuelans have fled the workers across the country) and the country to every possible place in order media (now either owned by the to survive. Currently, countries as far as government or by friendly business Peru and Chile — not to speak of people) — closed ranks in order to neighboring Colombia and Brazil — throw both the newly-elected NA and today seek solutions for an out of control political adversaries off the rails. inflow of immigrants from troubled Venezuela. The years 2016 and 2017 were decisive in more than one sense. In a sequence MAFIA RULE of decisions, the government invalidated a recall referendum that, in order to The tumultuous events of the past years proceed, would have to take place reveal Maduro’s adeptness to navigate before the end of the year; in early troubled currents coming in all 2017, the supreme justice tribunal directions: the economy, international announced the annulling of the NA, and pressures, the opposition and, last but the executive approved (with no not least, dissent within his own ranks. constitutional basis) the launching of a Examination of his rule has become a constituent assembly to remake the job for tropical kremlinologists as the political system altogether. infighting within the inner circles of the government has become more obscure. As a result, the opposition staged massive protests in an effort to stop the In early 2018, Maduro began an internal measures. This included the volte-face razzia against one of his major rivals, of the Chávez-appointed attorney Rafael Ramírez, who had been general, who condemned the supreme Chávez’s right-hand operator and an all- tribunal’s decision as a constitutional powerful head of Pdvsa, the state- coup, prompting divisions within the controlled oil company. He had been Chavista camp that had been boiling appointed Venezuela’s representative to over the prior years. the United Nations in 2013 in the

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aftermath of a failed attempt at a traffickers and terrorists” that “sooner moderate stabilization program he rather than later shall be subject to proposed that might have helped intervention by coalition forces to contain the imminent economic preserve the region’s peace.” collapse. But from New York he continued to exercise a strong influence What is clear from Maduro’s recent re- over the oil company. So, in order to election is that, as many strongmen reinforce his internal power, Maduro before him, he has been grossly forced Ramirez’s resignation, gave underestimated. With the opposition control of Pdvsa to the army, and weakened, cornered and with no clear launched an anti-corruption campaign strategy after deciding to boycott the against Ramirez’s cronies. Given the presidential election, and with Maduro in extent of Venezuela’s corruption, to full control of Chavista forces, especially which only Brazil compares, internecine the military, the odds about staying in struggles within the power clique don’t power have been reduced to what revolve around political views like it international pressure can be exercised used to be the case in Cuba or in against his regime. If Chávez, with a full defunct socialist states, but rather on wallet and a promising rhetoric, corruption charges. managed to capture the imagination (and support) of Latin America and other Clearly, corruption in Venezuela goes corners of the world, Maduro, who was far beyond the typical institutional flaw his foreign affairs minister, has been that has become endemic in Latin experiencing setback after setback. America. A growing number of government officials have been accused INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS and, in some cases, sanctioned for involvement in huge financial deals, Not only has there been a pendulum taking advantage of exchange rate change in the region, bringing fresh controls or for presumed involvement in adversaries in Argentina, Peru, Brazil, drug trafficking. Even two nephews of Panama and even in Ecuador, but the Venezuela’s first lady were condemned US and the European Union have last year for drug trafficking in a New heightened their pressure on the country York court. to levels unknown in the region. If other countries have been mostly vocal The extent of this enthrallment has against Venezuela, the US has put in become so pervasive that a growing effect individual sanctions against a long number of international critics consider list of government officials, military Venezuela today as a sort of mafia rule. officers, justices and others (the EU Even Lech Walesa, a pioneer of anti- recently joined in with additional totalitarian struggles in Eastern Europe, individual sanctions), as well as financial has recently argued that “Venezuela has sanctions that make it harder for the been kidnapped by a group of neo- government to handle financial

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operations and, more recently, even giving”), nothing in the Venezuelan purchases of ordinary requirements for landscape looks rosy for the the working of the oil industry. On top of government. Because history tends to that, the country is facing default on be cursory, an unexpected change of most of its own and Pdvsa’s debt as course is not to be entirely ruled out. well.

So the crunch is growing fast. Some Leonardo Vivas teaches international officials within the Trump administration politics at Emerson College and is a have recently spoke openly of other consultant for Freedom House. He is a options, including the military, and there former professor and coordinator of the have been outcries by former Latin Latin American Initiative at the Kennedy American presidents and others about School of Government at Harvard. Vivas the need for a humanitarian intervention is a sociologist who studied at Central to stop the situation from growing worse. University in Venezuela, and he went on to get an M.Phil from University of If international sanctions have proved Sussex, UK, and a PhD from Nanterre effective in terms of bringing rogue Université in Paris. nations to the negotiating table, so far this is not true for Venezuela. Recent experience shows that international Mexico Has Bigger Problems pressure by itself does not bring about regime change, unless it is than Russian Interference accompanied by military intervention. Jamie Shenk Given the Latin American tradition in June 30, 2018 that respect and — to say the least — the misgivings of the region vis-à-vis US Just like the US elections in 2016, fake involvement in the recent past, that news has become a fixture of Mexican option seems to be off the table. social media during the electoral season. It would seem that only an internal fracture of the ruling coalition may grant In a video posted in January, Mexico’s regime change, and at this point the leading presidential candidate, Andrés odds for that to occur seem very low. At Manuel López Obrador (better known by the same time, considering the very low his initials, AMLO), stands on the edge turnout for the May 20 election — of the port of Veracruz, looking out over allegedly lower than what the electoral the gray waters. “I’m waiting for the council has claimed — the need to rig Russian submarine,” he tells the the extent of the voting, and having to camera, “because it is bringing me gold extract many of the votes for Maduro from Moscow.” AMLO’s video was through economic blackmail (as Maduro filmed as a joke, poking fun at what he himself put it, “This is giving and insists are preposterous allegations that

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his campaign is supported by the As with the 2016 US elections, fake Russian government. But in news has become a fixture of Mexican Washington, the fear of Russian social media during the electoral interference in Mexico’s presidential season. In addition to the dubious election is very real. allegations of AMLO’s ties to Moscow, voters in Mexico have been told wrongly In December 2017, then-US National that Pope Francis denounced the Security Advisor H.R. McMaster leading candidate, and that voters must insinuated that Russia had already re-register by the end of the week in begun efforts to influence the Mexican order to be able to vote. Fake exit and election. A month later, then-Secretary opinion polls have even circulated of State Rex Tillerson echoed around social media, allowing parties to McMaster’s remarks, telling Mexico to distort reality and confuse voters. “pay attention” to Russian meddling. Both Tillerson and McMaster are long While the narrative about fake news gone, but the fear of Russian during the US elections revolved around interference among Washington’s policy Russia’s role in disseminating false circles remains. In late April 2018, a information, the power of fake news in bipartisan group of House members Mexico is predominantly domestic and filed a resolution calling on Russia to intimately connected to the Mexican stay out of Latin America’s elections. government’s history of collusion with the media, rather than driven by Clamor in the United States over Moscow’s efforts. For decades, national Russian interference has quietened in and local political parties have co-opted recent weeks, as the yawning chasm media outlets for the purposes of self- between AMLO and his next closest promotion. As a result, distrust of the competitor in polling continues to grow. traditional media runs deep in Mexican But when Mexicans take to the polls on society. July 1, they will not only choose their next president, but also governors, Groups in Mexico have mounted valiant representatives and mayors in states efforts to combat the spread of lies. But across the country. While the possibility disinformation persists and, as Ioan of Russian interference cannot be ruled Grillo noted in a recent op-ed, it exerts a out, three domestic factors — home- pernicious effect on the civility of public grown fake news, physical insecurity discourse and fosters polarization. It and declining trust in politics — will be may also confuse voters enough to bigger determinants of the election discourage them from even participating results and pose greater threats to Latin in the election, undermining the American democracy. mandate of whoever wins.

FAKE NEWS IN MEXICO But fake news is not the only threat to the elections. Voters and candidates in

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Mexico also face physical violence that Experts warn that what Russia seeks in could undermine the electoral process. manipulating elections is to sow distrust Changing dynamics of organized crime rather than pick a particular candidate. and violence in Mexico have made the However, only a small percentage of country an increasingly dangerous place Mexicans — around 25% — trust their to be interested in politics. Mexico country’s elections anyway. Meanwhile, reported its highest number of nearly half of Mexicans would support a homicides in 2017, and local officials military coup under conditions of and candidates have borne the brunt of rampant corruption or high insecurity, this violence. Mayors are at least 12 characteristics that could describe times more likely than the general Mexico’s current environment. population to be killed. Over 100 candidates and current or former SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY IN politicians have been killed so far during MEXICO Mexico’s electoral season. These three domestic threats to The violence also compounds the issue Mexico’s elections — disinformation, of fake news. Journalists are three times insecurity and distrust in democracy — more likely to be killed than the general run much deeper than this year’s population, and many of the journalists electoral cycle. As such, it would be that remain practice self-censorship shortsighted for concerned policymakers under constant threat from drug in the United States to focus on Russia’s trafficking groups or corrupt local discrete threat this election. In order to governments. Without independent support Mexico’s democracy, the US reporting, Mexicans may be exposed to would do better to focus on supporting an increasing proportion of whoever wins to work toward longer- disinformation generated within the term goals of transparent governance country, supplemented by growing and security in an effort to regain penetration of Russian media content Mexican’s trust in democracy. aimed at Latin American audiences. Admittedly, such a commitment from the These two conditions — increasing Trump administration seems insecurity and a polarized media improbable. From insulting Mexicans landscape — have contributed to a while on the campaign trail to his worrying decline in support for imposing harsh tariffs on Mexican democracy in Mexico. According to goods, President Donald Trump has polling conducted in 2017 by alienated America’s southern neighbor. AmericasBarometer, only around half of all Mexicans believe democracy is the But Washington is more than the White best form of governance. This has a House, and members of Congress, as marked impact on how citizens view some of the most vocal in denouncing elections. the Russia threat in the Western

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Hemisphere, could work around Trump American studies from the University of to support Mexican democracy. Oxford. Congress has already demonstrated its commitment to its southern neighbors in its most recent budget. The Meet Colombia’s New congressional appropriations bill passed in March increased foreign assistance to President Mexico by $14.1 million, 25% of which Glenn Ojeda Vega & German depends on State Department Peinado Delgado verification that the Mexican government July 18, 2018 is taking steps to address a number of human rights concerns. Iván Duque’s foreign policy will center on reinforcing ties with Colombia’s Continuing to fund governance traditional allies and securing programs and demanding accountability international support for the from the Mexican government may, in administration’s agenda. fact, be the best answer to the Russian threat in the region. Russia specifically This has been a critical year for targets polarized and weak democracies Colombian politics. In March, a new where its efforts to sow contempt for congress was elected and, three months liberal democratic values are most likely later, Iván Duque won the presidency to take root. For the US, the best when he defeated the former mayor of defense against Russia gaining a Bogotá, Gustavo Petro. The new foothold in the Western Hemisphere is congress will be sworn in on July 20, to help build solid institutions in Latin and the new president is expected to do America, from the inside out. the same on August 7.

Nonetheless, the new head of state has Jamie Shenk is a doctoral student in already made some key ministerial and sociology and a Clarendon scholar at cabinet announcements. The first major the University of Oxford. Her research appointment is that of Alberto focuses on how communities mobilize in Carrasquilla as minister of finance, post-conflict Colombia. She is the 2018 position that he held previously between Latin America fellow at Young 2003 and 2007, during the presidency of Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP) Alvaro Uribe. Carrasquilla has also been and has previously worked at the named head of the transition team, Woodrow Wilson International Center which has been particularly well for Scholars’ Latin American Program received by figures such as Juan Jose and Synergy Global Consulting. She Echeverria, governor of Colombia’s graduated summa cum laude from Central Bank; Santiago Castro Gomez, Princeton University with a BA in History president of the Banker’s Association; and holds a master's degree in Latin and Julian Dominguez, president of the

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Chambers of Commerce Association. the Democratic Center (founded in 2013 The fact that Carrasquilla is leading the by Alvaro Uribe). This governing handover from current President Juan coalition is made up of most of the Manuel Santos signals that the incoming traditional and center-right parties in the administration wants to reassure country. Furthermore, President-elect markets and investors about Colombia’s Duque has the political support of pro-growth and business friendly former Presidents Uribe, Andres agenda. Pastrana and Cesar Gaviria. However, the opposition also counts a significant Other important appointments thus far and organized representation with key include that of the economist Andrés national figures, such as Gustavo Petro, Valencia as minister of agriculture; Antanas Mockus, Jorge Robledo and lawyer Nancy Gutierrez as minister of Aída Avella. the interior; economist José Manuel Restrepo as minister of commerce and During its first year, Duque’s industry; surgeon Juan Pablo Uribe as administration will have to tackle key minister of health; geologist Ricardo domestic issues such as justice, tax and Lozano as minister of environment; pension reforms as well as the economist María Angulo as minister of implementation of the Havana peace education; and economist Jonathan agreement with the FARC Malagón as minister of housing. (Revolutionary Armed Forces of President-elect Duque’s predilection for Colombia). naming economists and lawyers to key posts in his administration should come In terms of foreign policy, President- as no surprise given his own elect Duque has had a very clear background as a lawyer who spent agenda. His first foreign trips were to the years with the Inter-American United States and Spain, where he met Development Bank in Washington DC. with leaders in both the business and public sectors. During the coming weeks, the rest of the new cabinet, as well as key During Duque’s recent visit to ambassadors, are expected to be Washington, he met with Vice-President announced. Nevertheless, being an Mike Pence; Secretary of State Mike establishment figure, Duque is expected Pompeo; Jim Carroll, head of the Office to continue naming individuals with of National Drug Control Policy; National experience working with the former Security Adviser John Bolton; Gina Santos, Uribe and Pastrana Haspel, director of the CIA; and Senator governments. Marco Rubio. Similarly, during a recent visit to Miami, he met with Florida’s On the legislative front, the Duque other senator, Bill Nelson, as well as the administration will count with a majority state governor, Rick Scott. The most coalition in congress led by his party, pressing bilateral issues between the

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two countries include combating illegal countries. During these visits, Duque trafficking, eradicating illicit crops has been accompanied by lawyer throughout Colombia, dealing with the Carlos Holmes Trujillo, who has been ongoing crisis in Venezuela, advancing appointed foreign secretary. Holmes hemispheric security and fostering Trujillo has a respected political career, economic ties. having served as a diplomat since the 1990s and standing as the vice- On the multilateral front, Duque met with presidential candidate for the the secretary general of the Democratic Center party in 2014. Organization of American States (OAS), Luis Almagro, as well as the director of It is clear that president-elect Duque’s the International Monetary Fund (IMF), foreign policy will center on reinforcing Christine Lagarde. ties with Colombia’s traditional allies and securing international support for the During this time, Duque also announced administration’s agenda. his intention of withdrawing Colombia from the Union of South American Nations, given the organization’s failure Glenn Ojeda Vega was a 2017 Latin to condemn abuses of power in America Fellow at Young Professionals countries like Venezuela. in Foreign Policy. He is also an emerging markets consultant and These gestures by the president-elect financial analyst in Washington, DC. set a clear tone for a foreign policy that Ojeda Vega earned his BS in Foreign is committed to the democratic and Service from Georgetown University and liberal order advanced by the inter- his Master's in International Relations American system promoted by the OAS. from the Universidad Javeriana in Simultaneously, Duque has also Colombia. participated in multiple academic and business forums, meeting with German Peinado Delgado is a personalities such as Barack Obama, business project manager and writer Mario Vargas Llosa and international relations professional businessman Florentino Pérez. based in Bogota, Colombia. A graduate of the Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana During his visit to Spain, Duque met with and the Universidad Javeriana, Peinado the King Felipe VI; former Prime Delgado has worked throughout both Minister Jose Maria Aznar; the current Colombia and Ecuador. prime minister, Pedro Sánchez; and Madrid’s mayor, Manuela Carmena. These meetings afforded the incoming president the opportunity to convey his intent to reinforce commercial and diplomatic relations between both

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Is Jair Bolsonaro the Man for raping Congresswoman Maria do Rosario because she was “very ugly.” Brazil? Kinga Brudzińska Not that such choice words have October 26, 2018 affected his popularity among ordinary Brazilians. Indeed, support for Brazil heads to the polls on October 28, Bolsonaro increased after he was with Jair Bolsonaro widely tipped to stabbed at a political rally in September. become the country’s next president. During the first round of presidential elections on October 7, Bolsonaro won There can be no doubt that Jair a spectacular 46% of the vote, with his Bolsonaro entered Brazil’s presidential closest rival, Workers’ Party (PT) campaign as a rank outsider. When it candidate Fernando Haddad, polling at comes to populist anti-establishment 29%. Datafolha predicts that Bolsonaro politicians making their mark across will receive 52% on October 28 against Latin America, the far-right his challenger’s 41%. congressman and former army captain is certainly in good company. TAPPING INTO POPULAR ANGER

Take, for example, the rise of Andrés So what explains the meteoric rise of Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s someone like Bolsonaro in a country president-elect. Like Bolsonaro where memories of the last military threatens to do in Brazil, López Obrador dictatorship remain relatively fresh? has broken the center-right’s traditional dominance of Mexican politics. Many Brazilians are weary of the interchange between PT and Brazilian But there the similarities end. In stark Social Democratic Party (PSDB) contrast to López Obrador’s leftist governments. Despite the remarkable message, Bolsonaro has consistently achievements of Luiz Inácio Lula da highlighted his authoritarian sympathies Silva’s PT — rapid economic growth and illiberal social views over the course and an expanding middle class — things of the election campaign. Brazil’s likely were far from plain sailing for his next president is a long-time defender of predecessor Dilma Rousseff. Under her the country’s former military dictatorship leadership, Brazil fell into a deep and a supporter of the armed forces, a recession in 2014 due to economic point underlined by the selection of mismanagement and a decline in global retired general Hamilton Mourão as his commodity prices. And while economic running mate. growth has since returned, conditions remain grim, with more than 12% of the Some of Bolsonaro’s more controversial population unemployed, and millions statements include his preference for a living back below the poverty line. Put dead rather than a gay son, and his simply, trust in the PT is at an all-time declaration that it would not be worth

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low, with many Brazilians holding the been helped by his arrest and charging party responsible for economic hardship with obstruction of justice (a charge and much more. which he categorically denies) and a narrow brush with impeachment. Jair Bolsonaro has effectively tapped into this anger and desire to disrupt the THE MAN status quo, particularly when it comes to corruption and high levels of street Finally, there is Jair Bolsonaro the man, violence. Brazil continues to struggle a passionate and charismatic individual with the repercussions of 2014’s “Lava who stands apart from the relatively Jato” —“Car Wash” — the country’s dour Haddad and Temer. Many biggest ever corruption scandal. The Brazilians have also warmed to his revelations contributed to the backstory — a devout Catholic from a impeachment and eventual removal of small town and working-class Rousseff from office in August 2016, as background. well as the Lula’s imprisonment earlier this year. Bolsonaro has proved particularly adept at using social media on the campaign As things stand, Brazil remains the trail, a significant development given his home to 17 of the world’s most violent small budget and the absence of major cities, with an annual homicide rate of party backers. His Facebook page 30 per 100,000 people. According to currently has 7.8 million followers, five Latinobarometro, support for the police times as many as Fernando Haddad has declined by almost 20% over the (1.5 million), and knocking President past few years, from 53% in 2010 to Temer’s paltry 628,000 into the long 34% in 2017. grass.

Neither do Brazilians have much faith in Bolsonaro’s popularity has also been their democratic institutions. A 2017 poll boosted by his decision to choose the suggests that only 13% of the free-market economist Paulo Guedes as population were satisfied with the state his potential finance minister. This is a of democracy, way below the Latin remarkable development, given that he American average of 30%. Further has advocated economic nationalism polling suggests that 97% of Brazilians throughout his political career. think that the country is governed by an elite that only has its interests at heart. Thanks to this change of heart, Bolsonaro received more votes from The polls also make for grim reading for investors and wealthy Brazilians than he Brazil’s incumbent president Michel perhaps expected in the first round of Temer and his Brazilian Democratic the presidential election. Many believe Movement (MDB), with an approval that he will curtail social spending and rating of just 5%. His cause has hardly

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implement much needed market-friendly Second, Brazilian politics are about reforms. coalition building, so Bolsonaro won’t find it so easy to push his ideas through Jair Bolsonaro is adamant that he is the congress. Finally, Brazilians are known man to make Brazil great again. The for impeaching their presidents when task at hand should not be they cross a red line, so Bolsonaro will underestimated. Far-reaching reforms have to watch out as he navigates his are required to boost the country’s weak political path. economic growth, including the consolidation of public finances and reform of the pension system. Brazil’s Kinga Brudzińska is a senior research next president also needs to restructure fellow for the Future of Europe a business environment that hampers Programme at the GLOBSEC Policy foreign investment. Without such Institute in Bratislava, Slovakia. She measures the country will continue to received a PhD in Political Science from teeter on the brink of one fiscal crisis the University of Warsaw and an MA in after another. Fighting corruption and Economics from the University of improving public security will also be at Economics in Krakow. She also holds a the top of the to-do list. Diploma in Latin American Studies from TEC Monterrey in Mexico. She is an In the absence of party support, expert on the Spanish-speaking world, Bolsonaro will have to quickly learn the EU foreign policy and on issues of art of coalition building and managing international democracy. She is author the different factions that make up Latin of chapters in books, articles in press America’s most fragmented congress. and various analyses on the European This will be no mean feat, with the next Union and Latin America. She is an parliament consisting of 30 parties in the alumna of the ZEIT-Stiftung Ebelin und lower house and 21 in the senate. Gerd Bucerius Global Governance Regardless of each candidate’s Network (Brazil 2014) and a senior ambitions, plans and expectations it will fellow of the Humanity in Action and undoubtedly be difficult for the incoming Lantos Foundation (US Program 2008 president to make Brazil great again. and the US House of Representatives 2009). Prior to joining GLOBSEC, she While it’s true that Bolsonaro’s right- worked at the Polish Institute of wing politics could pose a danger to International Affairs. Brazilian democracy, it does not necessarily mean a collapse or a slide into tyranny.

First, it may be simply that Brazilians are hungry for a strong and charismatic leader — one that would resemble Lula.

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MIDDLE EAST & NORTH protests erupted in response to the fraudulent elections that pitted reformist AFRICA Iranians against the hardline government were largely confined to the capital Tehran and made up of the The Economy Flames Anger middle class. This latest round of in Iran demonstrations is different: Protests Dina Yazdani erupted among low-income Iranians in January 9, 2018 the religious centers of the country like Mashad and Qom that align more The protests in Iran will not bring about closely with conservative hardliners than regime change, but they may force leftist reformists. political elites to address economic corruption that has gone on far too long. RED LINES

Iranians marked the end of 2017 by While the Green Movement (named pouring into streets across the country after the color of Mir-Hussein Mousavi’s to protest against the government of presidential campaign) was largely President Hassan Rouhani in what has composed of pro-democracy activists, become the largest nationwide both moderates and conservatives are demonstrations since 2009. After almost taking part in today’s protests. Economic two weeks of unrest, over 1,000 of grievances have provided Iranians with “seditionists,” as Supreme Leader a common message to unite under. Ayatollah Khamenei calls them, have Both conservatives and reformists are been arrested and at least 21 killed. channeling their economic frustrations Even though it is unclear if there was a toward the government and the single event that triggered the establishment as a whole, seen in widespread protests, the outbreak of slogans like “Death to Rouhani!” and dissent should come as no surprise. “Death to Khamenei!” Many consider Iranian society was a pressure cooker criticizing the supreme leader as a red ready to explode, for all the same line that few in 2009 have dared to reasons that inspired the Arab Spring cross. protests that rocked the Middle East. Iranians understand that declining living Lack of economic opportunities, growing standards are not the fault of the inflation, corruption, a widening gap president alone. While some of the between the people and the elites seem country’s economic woes can be have pushed Iranians over the edge. attributed to Rouhani’s policies, many They are bolder, more fearless and have been institutionalized within the have shown tremendous resilience in system of government and long precede the face of a growing crackdown by his presidency. This past summer during authorities. The 2009 Green Movement a radio interview, the son of a reformist

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leader Mohammad Reza Aref credited Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps his business success to “good genes” (IRGC). from his parents, sparking public outcry and reopening a debate on nepotism in One report claims that embezzlement Iran. Iranians took to Twitter to mock the and corruption cost Iran almost $18 children of elites, or aghazadeh — billion between 2011-2015, which spans Persian for “noble-born.” One tweet the last two years of the Ahmadinejad particularly captured the sentiment of administration and first two years of Iranians well: “What is aghazadeh? A Rouhani’s. According to Transparency person who’s had nothing to do with International, Iran’s average corruption success in his life and was only at the ranking largely remained the same right place, at the right time.” throughout Ahmadinejad’s and Rouhani’s respective terms, Nepotism propels economic corruption demonstrating how both hardliners and in Iran and has long been a source of reformists have perpetuated the grievance toward the government, not to practice. mention a hindrance to economic growth. Both hardliners and reformists “MY LIFE FOR IRAN!” alike benefit from the entrenched culture of nepotism as demonstrated by a report Economic corruption, while widespread, from IranWire, which revealed the high is not the only challenge to Iran’s positions held by relatives of some of economy. The misappropriation of funds Iran’s most affluent elites. is another. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution led by Khamenei’s Nepotism is only one contributing factor predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah to what is rampant economic corruption Khomeini that overthrew the Pahlavi in Iran. News reports expose that while monarchy, the new Islamic Republic has millions of employees of the Central sought to expand its sphere of influence Insurance Company earned only a few in the region and establish itself as a hundred dollars a month, at least eight regional hegemon. of its managers received yearly bonuses over $50,000; others received interest- While at first Khomeini hoped to inspire free loans from state-owned banks, resistance to Western influence, many of which have not been paid back exporting the values of the revolution since the days of Mahmoud eventually narrowed down to the Muslim Ahmadinejad’s presidency. With 80% of world. Iran has expanded its influence in the economy owned by the state, the the Middle East by helping fund Hamas most stable jobs are the government in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the ones. However they are difficult to come Houthis in Yemen, the Shia-led by and secure because of low turnover government in Iraq and Bashar al- rates, with priority often given to those Assad’s regime in Syria. While with connections to political elites or the “exporting the revolution” has been a

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powerful instrument to curry nationalism The ongoing protests emerged outside among Iranians, the latest of the historically urban center of dissent demonstration has shown that Iranians in Iran that was home to the 2009 Green are quickly losing their support for its Movement, the 1999 student protests expansionist foreign policy, especially and even the 1979 revolution — Tehran. as it comes at their expense. Iran’s Instead, they have taken place extensive proxy network comes at a throughout the country while the capital heavy price, and Iranians are tired of has remained uncharacteristically quiet. footing the bill. Among the many slogans chanted throughout the President Rouhani’s recent proposed nationwide protests include “No Gaza, budget for 1397 (Iran’s new year that no Lebanon, no Syria — my life for begins in March) ignores the needs of Iran!” the millions of Iranians living outside of the capital by dramatically slashing cash Tehran’s funding of proxy groups subsidies and infrastructure projects. abroad has also consolidated the status Despite promising to increase the of the Revolutionary Guards, which is budget for infrastructure projects by $31 responsible for training these groups, as billion, if approved by parliament an economic powerhouse in Iran. The Rouhani’s new budget will cut them by IRGC has taken advantage of its $3.1 billion — a 16% decrease from the indispensable role in executing the previous budget. Infrastructure projects country’s foreign policy by expanding its have been a key source of jobs for control over the Iranian economy. It is many Iranians, especially those living in not uncommon for those with ties with rural areas. Economics aside, the IRGC to be awarded non-bid infrastructure development is crucial government contracts, and for outside of Tehran, including new paved competitors to be disqualified on roads and buildings capable of arbitrary grounds. withstanding the country’s frequent earthquakes. Rouhani’s cuts to The economic footprint of the IRGC has subsidies will affect an estimated 30 been a hurdle for privatization efforts, million Iranians, who rely on cash making it hard for entrepreneurs and handouts to supplement their living ordinary businessmen to compete. By costs. With the price of eggs increasing continuing to invest money in an 40% over the past six months alone, it is ambitious foreign policy while neglecting difficult to imagine how they will manage the economic plight of their own people, without government assistance. the government is emboldening the IRGC and, consequently, undermining From 2007 to 2015, the average the economy. household budget has fallen 15%, meaning that Iranians have become WIDENING GAP 15% poorer. However, the average budget of an urban household in Tehran

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has increased around that same time highly educated population, advanced period. According to BBC Persian, the technology and vast resources make it a gap between Tehran and virtually highly desirable market. However, everyone else in the country has nearly America’s aggressive stance carries a doubled over the past few years. risk for private companies. Those that Economic corruption and the have managed to navigate around the misappropriation of funds have played a sanctions language in the US and role in pooling a disproportionate chuck elsewhere have resorted to signing of government money into the capital, memorandums of understanding instead the home of economic and political of actual contracts, leaving the Iranian elites, hardliner and reformist alike. Iran signatories vulnerable and uncertain. beyond Tehran has grown restless from this economic inequality, and Rouhani’s Foreign direct investment stands at only recent budget announcement confirmed $3.5 billion since the signing of the that it will only get worse. nuclear deal, which is relatively minor compared to other countries. Iranians THE NUCLEAR DEAL’S BROKEN are becoming increasingly pessimistic PROMISE that the nuclear deal will live up to its promises, and many believe that the US Compounding the litany of economic is preventing other countries from grievances is the disappointment with opening economic channels. Over 70% the nuclear deal signed in 2015. After of Iranians voted for Rouhani in last years of crippling sanctions, the Joint year’s presidential elections, largely as a Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) mandate for the nuclear deal, in hop that offered hope that Iran could finally join it would eventually usher in economic the global economy, which would attract growth. The countrywide foreign investment, spur economic demonstrations suggest that this hope is growth, lower inflation and, most quickly dissipating. importantly, create jobs. However, the nuclear deal has failed to live up to its In line with Iran’s history of dissent, all promises as the US under President protests eventually turn political. What Donald Trump continues to renege on began as a protest against rising its commitment to sanctions relief. After inflation and declining employment has threatening to rip up the deal during his exploded into a nationwide presidential campaign, Trump has demonstration of dissent against the lobbied even more sanctions against government as a whole. What is unclear Iran as president. is what role reformists will play in the protests. Even though the economy Trump’s hostility toward Iran has made affects rural, low-income Iranians more many foreign companies, not to mention than middle-class Tehranis, American ones who fear decertification, unemployment is high throughout the reluctant to do business with Iran. Iran’s country, especially among young people

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who make up at least half of the Can Europe Save the Iran population. The pro-democracy activists who made up the Green Movement Deal? have the same grievances against the Dina Yazdani government and are also disappointed May 24, 2018 in Rouhani — not just for his annual budget proposal but for failing to live up Iran will rely on world powers to keep to his political and economic promises the nuclear deal alive, undermining he campaigned on. Trump’s attempt to weaken the country.

Rouhani’s control over the government Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has is limited, however, and change can’t wrapped up the first leg of his diplomatic come from his office alone. Chants on tour to work with the signatories of the the streets are directed toward the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action government that includes Rouhani, the (JCPOA, or the Iran nuclear deal), in a supreme leader Ali Khamenei and the final stand for its preservation. Following Islamic Republic as a whole. While Trump’s decision to pull the US out of curbing Trump’s threats of decertifying the agreement on May 8, Zarif met with the nuclear deal and reversing new his counterparts in Beijing and Moscow, sanctions may be beyond Tehran’s soliciting their renewed commitment sphere of influence, it can start by not toward the international pact, as well as neglecting “the other Iran” and adopting European leaders, who stand to lose reforms that promote economic equality. billions if the agreement collapses. Addressing economic corruption is just a starting point and will without doubt Trump’s decision has without a doubt bring more positive outcomes than a dealt a blow to Iran. Nonetheless, military crackdown that will only incite Tehran is optimistic that the deal has not more Iranians to take to the streets. been completely derailed. “From this moment, the JCPOA is between Iran and five countries,” Iranian President Dina Yazdani is a freelance journalist. Hassan Rouhani said in a press She currently works at an international statement just moments after Trump’s NGO and previously served as the announcement. “From this moment, the News Team leader of Aslan Media. P5+1 has lost the 1.’” Raised by a Sunni Malaysian mother and a Shia Iranian father, her main Iran has abandoned hopes it once had interest lies in sectarianism and more under the Obama administration of broadly Middle East politics. She is a gradually rekindling relations by pivoting reporter at Fair Observer. away from the US toward other world powers, particularly Europe. Rouhani announced that Iran would continue to

adhere to the deal as long as European powers took substantive measures to

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preserve it and continue business with nuclear deal would open both the the Islamic Republic despite US country’s economy and society to the sanctions. The UK, Germany and international community. The deal was France have all announced that they will thought to not only bring economic remain committed to the nuclear deal growth, but also strengthen reformist with or without the US. On May 15, leaders like Rouhani who negotiated the European leaders held an emergency agreement and have called for crisis meeting with Zarif and outlined expanding political freedoms inside Iran. steps to get the nuclear deal, in the Hardliners in Iran, who are isolationists words of EU foreign policy chief critical of the West and devoted to Federica Mogherini, “out of intensive Islamic law, are capitalizing on Trump’s care as soon as possible.” withdrawal and have criticized Rouhani for trusting Washington. Instead of A BLOW TO REFORMISTS buckling under pressure by admitting defeat, Rouhani is determined to President Trump had lambasted the resuscitate the deal by bolstering deal for being “one-sided” and simply relations with the P5. “horrible” and sought to penalize Iran from the benefits promised under it. The nuclear deal has become a lifeline While Iran adhered to the agreement by for the reform movement. For as long as destroying its core reactor at Arak, it enables Iran to widen relations with ended uranium enrichment and other world powers and bring in foreign ultimately abandoned its ambitions of investment, reformists will continue to becoming a nuclear power altogether, have leverage over the hardliners. Trump sought to undermine the deal the Rouhani’s election in 2013 and the 2017 moment he stepped into office. In reelection, the latter of which was addition to imposing new sanctions, the considered a successful referendum on US president called for a Muslim ban the nuclear deal, emboldened ordinary that blocked Iranians from entering the Iranians to call for greater social reform. United States; created an atmosphere of Rouhani has echoed Iranians’ calls uncertainty for American companies that publicly and even carried out measures discouraged them from doing business to loosen restrictions on personal with Iran; and appointed a war cabinet freedom, such as divesting of the moral that includes Trump’s hardline national police. security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who The deal provides President Rouhani have both actively called for military with an opportunity to push for more confrontation against the Islamic reform and convince hardliners to work Republic. with the international community rather than against it. Rouhani is now When JCPOA was signed in January depending on Europe, which 2016, Iranians were hopeful that the understands how the reform

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movement’s fate is tied to that of the as sanctions). On the other hand, nuclear deal, to save the agreement. European powers can address Trump’s concerns over the nuclear deal through European leaders are on the frontline a separate, parallel agreement fighting to save the JCPOA. In the negotiated alongside the JCPOA that weeks preceding the US withdrawal, compels Iran to diminish its ballistic French President Emmanuel Macron missile capabilities in exchange for and German Chancellor Angela Merkel sanctions relief. vigorously lobbied Trump against it. Europe not only risks losing a lucrative If Europe hopes to save the nuclear trade partner, but also understands the deal, it will need to learn to stand up to ramifications it would have on political Trump, who has repeatedly sacrificed stability in the Middle East. Without the global security in favor of an “America deal, Iran would restart its nuclear First” approach. The US cannot program, validating Saudi Arabia and continue to dictate international relations Israel’s calls for military containment. and politics. Iran sees Trump’s exit from These three countries’ proxy wars have the nuclear deal as an opportunity to already caused insurmountable damage work and bolster relations with other to the region; a direct war could destroy world powers and prove that it. international agreements can survive without the United States. When Trump CAN EUROPE SAVE THE DEAL? announced US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the The nuclear deal is best positioned to international community came together contain Iran’s ambitions. As long as to carry on with business as usual. Iran there is an international pact with Iran, hopes that it will do the same when it there is a channel for diplomacy. comes to the nuclear deal. European powers understand that as long as this channel is open, they’re more likely to be able to engage Iran on Dina Yazdani is a freelance journalist. other topics, from its ballistic missile She currently works at an international program to its involvement in Syria. NGO and previously served as the News Team leader of Aslan Media. Europe’s best shot at preserving the Raised by a Sunni Malaysian mother nuclear deal is through a carrot and and a Shia Iranian father, her main stick approach toward the US. On the interest lies in sectarianism and more one hand, it can ignore America’s broadly Middle East politics. is a extraterritorial sanctions by employing reporter at Fair Observer. the 1996 Blocking Regulation that threatens to freeze US assets in Europe and in the process protects European companies from US legal rulings (such

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The Role of Fear in Turkey’s most definitely independent of President Erdogan and his Justice and Elections Development Party (AKP). Nathaniel Handy June 23, 2018 Turkey is still a functioning, if dysfunctional, democracy. President Never mind who’s afraid of President Erdogan and the AKP could lose. But Erdogan — what about his supporters’ they probably won’t. This is due in large fear of life without him? part — with all the intimidation, jailing of candidates and control of the national When Turks go to the polls on June 24 media excepted — to his enduring — only a little over a year since the appeal for a large sector of Turkish controversial referendum that paved the society. While fear of Erdogan is well way for a new presidential system of known and well documented, what government — the question of fear will about fear of life without Erdogan? What be central to most narratives. The most is it that AKP voters most fear? dominant of these, certainly outside the country, is the one broadly attached to CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER: the opposition: the fear of another THE OPPOSITION FEAR victory for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his consolidation of power. Fear of President Erdogan has become an almost all-pervasive narrative in This narrative is well worn in Western opposition circles. Critics point to his media. It has many advocates within majoritarian conception of democracy, Turkey and among Turks abroad, as his illiberal instincts, the muzzling of the well as much hard evidence to support media, jailing of journalists and it. There is also — particularly after the opposition politicians, and the steady slim margin of victory in the 2017 weakening of the rule of law as the referendum — the suspicion of potential judiciary and even financial institutions electoral fraud. But against this become more and more beholden to the backdrop is also another awkward, yet president. What is less often cited is the important, truth: President Erdogan still increasing unease of many in his own commands huge support. party.

Were Turkey a true dictatorship, as it is For many members of the ruling Justice increasingly portrayed under Erdogan, and Development Party, the erosion of he would have no electoral challengers, open borders, a soft power foreign except perhaps for a few late entrants policy and democratic foundations within who suddenly and mysteriously realized the country are seen not as an erosion a desire to run for president, despite of traditional Turkish principles, but of being long-standing stalwart supporters principles championed by the AKP itself. of the incumbent. Instead, Turkey has a Look to a major figure such as former genuine field of candidates who are

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Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and Demirtas is the charismatic figurehead we see a man who led policies of “zero for the Kurdish political movement in problems with neighbors” and “strategic Turkey, though he is viewed by many as depth” that have been abandoned. a mouthpiece for the other jailed Kurdish leader, Abdullah Ocalan. The threat to In another clear sign of the division in execute a popular politician is no idle the ruling party, rumors swirled briefly in threat in a country that did just that May of former President Abdullah Gul — following the coup of 1960. Adnan a founder of the AKP — running for Menderes was the leader of the president against Erdogan. In the event, Democratic Party, which ruled for a he didn’t risk the challenge, yet there is decade in the 1950s following an early a sense of potential momentum in this multi-party experiment in the Kemalist election. “It will be the most state. unpredictable election ever,” suggested a political observer in Istanbul who Following the party’s fall in a military wished to remain anonymous. “Not even coup, the coup leaders chose to execute expert public opinion pollsters know Menderes by hanging, an act that still what is going to happen.” casts a long shadow over Turkish politics. It is one small window into the “I personally believe that the chances of minds of those who support President a surprise victory for the opposition have Erdogan and his ruling AKP. significantly increased,” said the observer. He cited the victimization of Like Menderes and his party, Erdogan the Kurdish and left-wing party, the and the AKP came to political Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), and prominence through popular support at the successful left-wing populist the ballot box, not through military campaign of Muharrem Ince, candidate tutelage. They too spoke for a largely for the main opposition Republican disenfranchised provincial electorate of People’s Party (CHP). pious Turks who had never wholly embraced Kemalism. He also believed President Erdogan’s numerous public gaffes, such as Despite all the turmoil of the last few acknowledging that the National years, and all the illiberalism exhibited Intelligence Organization (MIT) has by President Erdogan, his supporters been used to spy on the opposition have the whole 20th century to campaign and threatening the death reference in considering where their penalty for HDP candidate Selahattin interests lie. It was a century dominated Demirtas, had undermined the by the staunchly secularist Kemalist confidence of moderates. elite, supported by a military that was ready to defend the state created by ENDURING THREATS: FEAR OF LIFE founder Kemal Ataturk, even against the WITHOUT ERDOGAN popular will of its citizens. Long years of

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cultural and religious oppression are not combative leader, determined to not easily forgotten. only bring his constituency within the country representation, but real power JUST BECAUSE I’M PARANOID… and influence. Turkey is no stranger to the military coup, but for an attempt to Erdogan is a personification of this have occurred in 2016 was, history. He was himself jailed by the nevertheless, an audacious surprise in a Kemalist establishment in 1998 for the country now wary of such practices. crime of reading a poem by the Turkish Moreover, in the shadow of Menderes, nationalist Ziya Gokalp that spoke of President Erdogan can have been pretty how “the minarets shall be our sure that night of what his fate might so bayonets” — a reference that whiffed of easily have been. Islamism to the Turkish elite of the era. Perhaps even more acutely, the AKP In such a political climate, it is easy — constituency has the failed coup of 2016 perhaps not that surprising — that a to consider now. Though it has been leader would move toward illiberalism, surprisingly quickly forgotten in Western toward a majoritarian vision that rested media against the prominent post-coup on the knowledge that unless you hold purge, what occurred on July 15, 2016, the power, those who do will not is now central to President Erdogan and hesitate to oppress you. Unlike what to his support. might now be seen as the “AKP Spring” of the early 21st century, Erdogan’s For all that he and his ruling circle can trajectory now borrows much from the now appear paranoid, defensive and lessons of the rule of Ataturk himself, illiberal, it cannot be denied — beyond who erred on the side of one man, one conspiracy theories of a false flag party rule — strength and stability for operation — that Erdogan’s the good of the nation. There are many administration was the victim of a violent for whom that message still rings true. attempted coup. It claimed the lives of over 200 people, involved elements in the air force who bombed key Nathaniel Handy is a writer and government buildings, and even the academic with over 10 years of hotel in Marmaris where the president experience in international print and was staying that night. Whatever we broadcast media. He is the author of the may think of the likes of US President chapter “Turkey’s Evolving Relations Donald Trump or British Prime Minister with the Kurdish Regional Government Theresa May, neither has been (KRG) of Iraq since the Arab Spring” in subjected to such action from within Turkey’s Relations with the Middle East: their own state. Political Encounters after the Arab Spring (Isiksal & Goksel, Springer, Consider for a moment what that means 2018); the article “Turkey's Shifting to a man in Erdogan’s position. He is a Relations with its Middle East Neighbors

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During the Davutoglu Era: History, when, following Saudi denials of any Power and Policy” (Bilgi Dergisi Journal, knowledge of Khashoggi’s fate, no 2011); and he presented a paper at the further news was forthcoming. The British Society of Middle Eastern pattern seemed confirmed. The world Studies (BRISMES) annual conference would move on to other dramas. in 2014 on Turkish relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. But the mystery deepened with the continued insistence of the Saudis that they knew nothing and had nothing to Jamal Khashoggi: The report, including the basic facts about how and when he left the consulate, as Martyr Who Made Backlash they claimed. Then, probably to the Possible Saudis’ own surprise, the Turkish Peter Isackson authorities revealed that they had October 19, 2018 evidence not only that the journalist had never left the consulate, but that he was In his last ever article, Jamal Khashoggi most likely murdered inside the lamented the lack of an “independent consulate. international forum” and “transnational media” in the Arab world. Now the media had something to work with. Embarrassed by the revelation, the In his final, posthumous column Saudis had a brief opportunity for published by The Washington Post, damage control by admitting partial Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi responsibility (i.e., the “botched complained about the public’s general interrogation” suggested some days acceptance of attacks by governments later). All they needed to do would be to in the Arab world on freedom of the place the blame on a designated press. They are so frequent and subordinate — the standard procedure widespread that the public has become of “plausible deniability. inured and indifferent. “These actions no longer carry the consequence of a But by then they may have realized that backlash from the international the degree of toxicity of the event was community,” he wrote. “Instead, these such that the only viable strategy would actions may trigger condemnation be to continue stonewalling, hoping that quickly followed by silence.” Khashoggi’s own insight was correct, that his murder would simply “trigger When the press first began to speak of condemnation quickly followed by Khashoggi’s failure to appear after a silence.” visit to the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, many in the media expressed their THE UNRAVELING OF DONALD alarm and ran stories about it for two or TRUMP’S MIDDLE EAST GAMBIT? three days and then began to go quiet

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This is where US President Donald which, according to reports, included a Trump may have been unwittingly major role for Saudi Arabia. responsible for the definitive undermining of the reputation of Saudi After first speculating that there may Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have been “rogue killers,” which most (MBS), on whom Trump, or rather Jared observers believed was an allusion to Kushner, has based his grand vision of the “botched interrogation” thesis, a new Middle East led by Israel and Trump has finally admitted that he Saudi Arabia, with Iran neutralized after “believes Jamal Khashoggi is dead.” He regime change or simply reduced to also tellingly revealed his rubble. disappointment that the story has remained in the public spotlight longer By failing to join one of his most vocal than he and MBS hoped or expected: supporters, Republican Senator Lindsey “This one has caught the imagination of Graham, in expressing his moral the world, unfortunately.” In an act of indignation and forcing the Saudis to uncharacteristic patience, Trump now admit some level of accountability — if insists on waiting for the outcome of only to stabilize the increasingly three investigations before making a embarrassing situation caused by their “strong statement,” possibly in the hope blanket denial — Trump has revealed to that in the meantime Kanye West and the world how focused his own values Kim Kardashian will have drawn “the are on money and power to the imagination of the world” to a more exclusion of justice and human rights. exciting subject. He has run the risk of potentially splitting the fragile unity he had created in the Trump’s willingness to passively support Republican Party around his bombastic as long as possible the Saudis’ personal power. stonewalling illustrates Khashoggi’s concern that the international As we wait to see the chain reaction of community was no longer capable of future events once the already evident providing the “backlash” he felt was facts are brought out into the open, necessary to drive a wedge in Saudi observers will focus on how three Arabia’s despotic control of the press. threads of the story will play out: the As more and more economic partners, damage inside Saudi Arabia to international firms and European Mohammed bin Salman’s hold on power ministers turn away from their (after all he is “only” the crown prince); commitment to the glitzy Future the damage done to Trump within in his Investment Initiative in Saudi Arabia, party and to his party during the midterm something resembling a backlash finally elections in November; and the fate of seems to be taking place. the notorious peace plan for Palestine and Israel, engineered by Kushner If the backlash continues to capture not just the imagination but also the moral

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indignation of the world, Khashoggi’s compliant bending to the wishes of martyrdom may turn out to be a blow for partisan insiders and even to Saudi freedom, opening a slight but possibly Arabian interests. This soft or indirect growing breach in the authoritarian control of information takes different control of the media that MBS has forms, one of which Khashoggi exercised. Could the journalist’s murder mentions in his posthumous article: be for Saudi Arabia what the immolation through the pressure of advertisers, who of Mohamed Bouazizi was for Tunisia’s combine with governments to present Arab Spring in 2010? That seems and enforce an official account of certain unlikely, given the nature and the sheer events and, more commonly, a wealth of the interests in place, but normalized version of social values. symbols and acts of martyrdom have been known to change the course of As the wealthiest man on earth, history, particularly in the Middle East. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos could pay to have Khashoggi write for The Washington HOW FREE IS ANY PRESS? Post, just as he pays for a number of establishment writers who promote Describing how the media is establishment values, while excluding a manipulated in the Arab world, Jamal wide range of celebrated thinkers and Khashoggi tells us: “[T]hese writers known for critiquing those governments, whose very existence values. US commercial news media is relies on the control of information, have locked into a binary logic that pits aggressively blocked the Internet. They Democrats against Republicans, liberals have also arrested local reporters and against conservatives and occasionally pressured advertisers to harm the subdivides the drama into opposing revenue of specific publications.” clans within each of the parties.

In the West it’s different, but only by a Consequently, they confine all degree. As this author recently pointed discussion of politics, society and out, quoting Jacob Rees-Mogg, a economics within the purview of two member of the British Conservative traditional partisan establishment points Party: “Governments want to control of view, creating and often fomenting information. To do this they have false drama that excludes any point of elaborate systems for promoting view, however seriously reasoned, that themselves.” These include putting the fails to fall within the categories of media in a dependent and eventually debate defined by the bi-partisan compliant position. establishment. The news as a source of public debate is organized in the The Washington Post is a prime manner of a sporting event, designed to example of this. The newspaper is foment fandom for one team or the known both for its heroic challenges to other, confining the public’s attention to government (Watergate) and its recognized, official positions on the

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issues that those two teams consider is a dream that people in the West important and focusing the public’s should share and extend. Alas, it interest on the question of who will win remains a dream because reality has and who will lose. not been kind to the idea of independence. Recent history makes it The website Media Bias/Fact Check clear that despite the variety of offers this description of The platforms in the so-called “free world” Washington Post: “They often publish (free of what?), true independence is factual information that utilizes loaded rare. When it does exist, it tends to be words (wording that attempts to aggressively marginalized by its more influence an audience by using appeal successful opposite — commercial to emotion or stereotypes) to favor journalism — which we would be wise to liberal causes.” Of Fox News, it reports: get in the habit of calling our “dependent “They may utilize strong loaded words media.” (wording that attempts to influence an audience by using appeal to emotion or A single sentence in a recent article by stereotypes), publish misleading reports Rick Newman of Yahoo Finance and omit reporting of information that concerning the Khashoggi affair helps to may damage conservative causes. clarify what we mean by Western Some sources in this category may be media’s dependence on established untrustworthy.” interests, both government and private. Attempting to explain “why Trump is No writing is entirely trustworthy. All going soft on Saudi Arabia” (the title of writing reflects someone’s point of view the article), Newman writes: “The and loaded words can be found in every Khashoggi mess, however, could disrupt discourse. But the damage of media Trump’s Iran strategy just as he’s about bias comes more from the deliberate to tighten the screws on the hard-line narrowing of perspective. It achieves a Islamic nation.” deeper effect through the consistent framing of issues in a way that invites In a context where the subject is both the “loaded words” its public expects to Saudi and Iran, an objective observer hear, which provokes an emotional might legitimately pause and wonder response. which “hard-line Islamic nation” he is referring to: Iran or Saudi Arabia? FROM PROPAGANDA TO Obviously it’s Iran. Why should that be? RESPECTABLE FAKE NEWS Because everyone knows and accepts that Iran is the enemy of the US and Jamal Khashoggi left this world Saudi Arabia is its ally. The public is dreaming of “an independent taught to think in binary categories, international forum, isolated from the where only opposites exist (as in a influence of nationalist governments sporting contest). spreading hate through propaganda.” It

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But if you ask any thinking person which How do the public and the nation as a of the two nations cited they would whole make that choice? That’s easy: describe as the most hardline or the “it’s the economy, stupid.” Do we really most “Islamic,” after a bit of thought and prefer Sunni Islam to Shia Islam? Few in research, the more obvious answer the West have even a vague idea of the would be that it’s Saudi Arabia. difference between those two versions of Islam and even fewer care. Do we Not only do women have fewer rights compare their records on human rights than in Shia Iran, but Wahhabi Saudi or despotic rule? Arabia has for decades exported violent Islamic extremism and terrorism on an No, all we need to know is that the unparalleled scale, spawning both al- nation we end up calling the enemy can Qaeda and, to a degree, the Islamic truthfully be accused of practices that State. As military historian Major Danny can be labeled despotic. The fact that Sjursen complains, the extremists who the ally may be equally as despotic, or killed soldiers under his command in even more so, has no importance Afghanistan were “too often armed and because we presume that their leaders funded by the kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” trust and honor us, meaning that they Is that how we choose our allies? will not direct their despotic tendencies to curtail our own sacred freedom. After SEPARATING ALLIES AND ENEMIES all, anyone who does business with us must trust and honor us. What more do Westerners have been conditioned to we need to know? think within the constraints of a culture and political ideology created and From the very time of its creation in promoted by governments working — 1932, Saudi Arabia accepted its role as closely, intimately and, more often than a cog in the wheel of the complex not, outside of public view — with arrangements established between financial and industrial interests. As a powerful financial, political and industrial group, they are more concerned about interests defined in the West. Iran, on opportunities for business and power the other hand, dared to revolt twice relationships than human rights or even against the Western system. First when the lives of their own soldiers. The Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh technique for conditioning the public is, attempted to nationalize Iran’s oil as mentioned above, fairly simple. industry. The democratically elected Binary reasoning permits the leader was quickly overthrown in 1953 presentation of any problem as a choice through the collaborative work of either between good and evil (by American and British intelligence excluding all nuance) or between the agencies. What was Mosaddegh’s real lesser of two evils. This helps us divide crime? A wish for economic the world into two camps: allies and independence, which he felt Iran could enemies. achieve by nationalizing the oil industry.

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The US and Britain made what they in Iran — the same two nations that called the “progressive” move of since the creation of the Saudi nation replacing a democratically elected never ceased to endorse, or at least leader by a monarch, Shah Mohammed benignly tolerate, its despotic theocracy. Reza Pahlavi, a former playboy who easily slipped into the role of Western We must therefore ask ourselves: How puppet and local tyrant. does the establishment, including the media, maintain the public’s perception THE MAKING OF AN ENEMY of Saudi Arabia as a trusted ally and Iran as an existentially defined enemy? When Imam Ruhollah Khomeini led the revolt that forced the shah into exile in As everyone knows, Iran was 1979, the new Islamic regime had finally designated as a core member of George found a way to gain the independence W. Bush’s “axis of evil.” It was also the that had been denied by the West in country John McCain wanted to bomb 1953, but this time with a vengeance without asking questions and the nation and a deep resentment that required the John Bolton is now promising to give combined force of religious conviction “hell to pay.” Donald Trump had no with the political sense of national trouble canceling Barack Obama’s Iran identity to achieve its goal. This deal, not because there was an constituted a perfect recipe for a rigid, objective reason to do so, but because inflexible, theocratic, culturally he knew that the majority of Americans authoritarian form of government, in believed Iran is, by definition, “the contrast to the secularism of enemy.” Mosaddegh. In some sense, Khomeini’s Iran duplicated the template of Saudi Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are Arabia, with similarly massive oil theocracies, but Iran has a reserves but without a royal family. democratically elected government, whereas Saudi is the world’s last The democratic West reacted with its significant absolute monarchy. It doesn’t usual shock and incomprehension at matter how hardline, how Islamic (or seeing another group of people refuse Islamist), how brutal, cruel, unjust and the benefits of economic cooperation committed to violence one or the other with the powers that, in the name of may be. Saudi Arabia wears our democracy and free markets, rule the uniform. It’s on our team. Iran isn’t. In world and control its resources. This the words of English poet John Keats, confirmed in many people’s minds the “that is all ye know on earth and all ye perverse but facile Islamophobic belief need to know.” And for decades the that Muslim populations prefer public has asked no questions, not even theocracy to democracy, even though it after 9/11 when it became clear that was the US and the UK who had put a both Osama bin Laden and 15 of the 19 halt to the growth of secular democracy hijackers were Saudi citizens.

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REALIZING JAMAL KHASHOGGI’S Khashoggi mentions with approval the DREAM fact that “Qatar’s government continues to support international news coverage.” In his final article, Jamal Khashoggi Had the article been published before lamented the lack of an “independent his death, it would have been a international forum” and “transnational sufficient pretext for the Saudis to media” in the Arab world. There is a assassinate him, since MBS made the great diversity of media platforms in the decision in 2017 to brand Qatar — West, but most of them — and those Riyadh’s traditional Gulf partner and ally that are the most watched and read — — a dangerous enemy, which he are neither independent nor truly threatened to destroy and annex. international. Publishing and broadcasting the news that aligns with There are a number of online channels corporate interests and is careful not to that have achieved independence but disturb the ideological taste of its public rarely correspond to Khashoggi’s wish is only a tiny step closer to for “an independent international forum.” independence than many government- This media organization, Fair Observer, funded and run media outlets. actually does fall into that category. By refusing institutional sponsorship and That explains why celebrity news, advertising, and steering clear of any entertainment and sports play such a ideological orientation, Fair Observer prominent role in such media. They fill deserves to be cited as an example of the time that might be more responsibly true independence. It gives voice to the dedicated to raising issues of serious widest variety of serious and frequently concern, issues that would invite people conflicting points of view, always in the to think and eventually act interest of creating perspective, the very democratically, but which might also risk thing most commercial media outlets disturbing the population’s comfort level endeavor to suppress. with an economy and political system managed, unbeknownst to them, by the As an independent publication, Fair corporate interests that program the Observer refuses to put itself in a news. position in which it would be beholden either to governments or private There are some exceptions. The BBC corporate interests. Alas, those two and Al Jazeera have established bastions of power remain the primary reputations for a high but far from sources of the news people consume. perfect level of independence. Al As we have seen, governments and Jazeera projects a more international corporate interests understand that they vision of the world than BBC, which is wield the power not just to present the still encumbered culturally by Britain’s news stories that comfort the status quo colonial heritage and its fundamentally but, more importantly, the power to English-speaking view of the world. shape public discourse and guide

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people’s “thinking,” even on questions Heinemann and Macmillan. He has as basic as: who is our ally and who is published books and articles in a variety our enemy? of journals on culture, learning, language and politics. He is the chief Would Jamal Khashoggi have submitted strategy officer at Fair Observer and the articles to Fair Observer? Nothing would creator of the regular feature, The Daily have stopped him, although without Jeff Devil’s Dictionary. Bezos’ cash to keep the pot boiling, in contrast to The Washington Post, he couldn’t have made a living doing so. Is the Worst Over for Libya? Are there other voices inside or outside Sherif El-Ashmawy Saudi Arabia that can deliver the kind of November 2, 2018 independent and knowledgeable insight

Khashoggi offered us? There are signs that a worst-case

scenario has been avoided in Libya. Perhaps few with the deep insider knowledge that Khashoggi had, but The latest month-long round of inter- there are many valid perspectives that militia fighting south of Tripoli, which we need, more than ever, to learn broke out on August 27 and left at least about. Fair Observer welcomes them. 115 people killed, had two remarkable And because it is a truly “international effects. On the one hand, the level of forum,” it welcomes them from violence, which the capital had not everywhere in the world. witnessed in four years, highlighted the

persistent volatility of the security

situation and, thereby, Libya’s Peter Isackson is an author, media unpreparedness to hold parliamentary producer and chief visionary officer of and presidential elections by December Fair Observer Training Academy. 10 — as set out by the May 29 Paris Educated at UCLA and Oxford declaration to which representatives of University, he settled in France and has Libya’s main rival factions verbally worked in electronic publishing — agreed. On the other hand, the fighting pioneering new methods, tools and provided an opening for the content for learning in a connected renegotiation of Tripoli’s security world. For more than 30 years, he has arrangements. dedicated himself to innovative publishing, coaching, training of trainers Following several unsuccessful attempts and developing collaborative methods in to create stability in a country marred by the field of learning. He has authored, violence and fragmentation since the fall produced and published numerous of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya is innovative multimedia and e-learning entering a new transitional period. The products and partnered with major characteristics of this period will become organizations such as the BBC, clearer over the coming year and will

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have effects on the country’s unified regular security forces and governance structures and security central authorities that Libyans across dynamics. Despite signs of persistent the country regard as legitimate, armed political fragmentation, entrenched groups have significant influence over disagreements between rivals and political institutions and figures, while continued insecurity across the country, political groups have their associated there have been positive developments militias. Political fragmentation also over the past two years that can be built provides an opening for a wide range of upon for a successful transition to criminal and militant groups to flourish. peace. The international community’s efforts to GOVERNANCE-SECURITY NEXUS broker reconciliation efforts in recent months have focused on the need for While Libya’s government structures are Libya to move on toward adopting a split between rival national-level sets of constitution and holding parliamentary authorities, the most effective form of and presidential elections as a step governance is often local. This is due to toward reunifying the country. divisions along tribal, regional and ethnic lines as well as to the living The latest round of fighting in Tripoli memory of political rivalries and armed further exposed the internationally struggles since 2011. These factors, recognized Government of National along with disagreements between Accord’s (GNA) weaknesses and the international stakeholders on how to need to transition to a new form of stabilize Libya, have undermined the governance. As elections are unlikely to UN-led efforts to reunify the country’s be held by the end of the year, there are fragmented state institutions and end growing signs of a potential reshuffle of the turmoil. the GNA’s Presidency Council over the coming months to allow a new body that There has been no shortage of better represents the Libyan international initiatives to broker a stakeholders to oversee elections and political settlement in Libya and bring efforts to reunify state institutions. about stability over the past 18 months. These have engaged national-level BUILDING BLOCKS stakeholders, who mostly had limited influence over their constituencies and Three major positive trends developed constrained capacity to change realities over the past two years and can serve on the ground. This has undermined the as a foundation for the country’s effectiveness of those initiatives. stabilization.

Moreover, political and security First is the partial recovery of Libya’s oil stabilization tracks cannot be separated production. In September 2016, the from each other. In the absence of eastern-based Libyan National Army

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(LNA) took over the Sirte Basin’s oil airport, Tripoli’s port and government terminals, and production restarted in buildings) and handing them over to a late 2016 at the southwestern Murzuq police force. If the new arrangements basin’s oilfields following the resolution are efficiently implemented, they would of communal disputes. These two reduce security risks in the capital and developments paved the way for a steep diminish the likelihood of inter-militia increase in Libya’s oil output, which fighting. reached 1.35 million barrels per day in October 2018 for the first time in five On the national level, there are signs years. that major armed groups lack the intent and capability to engage in large-scale This was only possible through a tacit fighting against each other. These agreement by which the LNA would groups are also deterred by their foreign guard the Sirte Basin’s export terminals allies from escalating hostilities to a and oilfields, which account for 80% of level that would trigger another civil war. Libya’s oil reserves, while the Tripoli- based National Oil Corporation (NOC) Finally, there is a growing international continues to manage the sector. momentum to find a sustainable solution Accordingly, oil revenues would also to Libya’s turmoil. It is true that there are flow into the Tripoli-based central bank. competing views between international Despite recurrent disruption to oil stakeholders over how best to move production and tensions between rival forward. Different countries’ drivers vary authorities over the management of between stemming the flow of illegal revenues, Libyan factions realized the migration toward Europe, preventing the benefits of cooperation to keep oil creation of a safe haven for Islamic revenues — Libya’s principal source of State militants in Libya, reducing income — flowing in. instability in the Sahel region and securing business deals in the oil and Second, there are strong signs that gas, power and reconstruction sectors. designing a more efficient and sustainable security architecture is However, there are signs of efforts underway — though at a slow pace — aimed at reconciling the positions of and that Libya is highly unlikely to international stakeholders regarding descend into another full-scale civil war Libya. For example, France in recent comparable to that of 2014. weeks has become less insistent on the need for Libya to hold elections by the The latest clashes south of Tripoli end of 2018, which brings it closer to prompted the GNA to implement new Italy’s stance that advocates a more security arrangements that consist of careful approach to Libya’s transition. the withdrawal of Tripoli’s principal militias from protecting the capital’s vital Moreover, there is evidence that infrastructure facilities (such as Mitiga coordinated international action can

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have positive effects on the ground and NORTH AMERICA produce more stability. For example, significant international pressure — including from the US — on the We Need a #MeToo Moment for commander of the LNA, Khalifa Haftar, School Shootings compelled him hand back the Ellis Cashmore administration of the Sirte Basin’s oil February 16, 2018 ports to the internationally recognized NOC (after briefly transferring them in Does the #MeToo movement offer a June 2018 to an unrecognized authority model for overcoming our compassion based in Benghazi), thereby resuming fatigue with mass shootings? oil exports. How long will it be before the next mass While Libya’s coming transition is likely killing on American soil rips our hearts to witness persistent political tensions, open and has us begging for a change fragmentation and violence, the in the US gun laws? Be warned: It will scenario of a full-scale civil war has be soon. most likely been avoided, and the country is presented with an opportunity Only last November, a gunman (the to progress, albeit slowly, toward a more killers are almost always male) opened stable order. fire on a small church in Texas, killing 26 people and an unborn child. A month before this, Stephen Paddock sprayed Sherif El-Ashmawy is a political and gunfire on a crowd of 22,000 at a Las security risk analyst focusing on the Vegas concert. Since the shooting at the Middle East and North Africa region. In Columbine High School in Colorado in his current role at Control Risks Group, April 1999, in which 12 children and one a global specialist risk consultancy, he teacher were killed, barely a season has leads the company's analysis on Libya. passed without some sort of atrocity. El-Ashmawy advises multinational companies and organizations on the Mass killings are uniquely terrifying various political, security and because they seem to happen operational risks that they face in Libya. spontaneously, and only later do we He holds a master’s degree in discover they have been planned. They international relations from Sciences Po also happen in the most unlikely places: Paris and a bachelor’s degree in political not the mean streets of Chicago or science and economics from Cairo South Central LA, but in schools or University. universities — places conventionally associated with innocence and enlightenment. Each killing meets with

condemnation of the gun laws and an

instant diagnosis of the killer as a

psychopath. We react with shock,

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though perhaps with less surprise than every teenager has; his was loaded with the time before. The killings disturb us, cartridges. He arrived in an Uber cab but perhaps with diminishing returns. In and pulled out a semiautomatic AR-15 other words, we’re becoming inured to rifle, which he had recently bought, mass killings. completely legally. After he’d completed his killing spree, Cruz walked to a COMPASSION FATIGUE Walmart store and then to a Subway, where he bought a soft drink. In the early 1990s, the term compassion fatigue captured the indifference to He also stopped at a McDonald’s. The charitable appeals on behalf of suffering police eventually arrested him as he people, such as the homeless or walked calmly down a street. The populations afflicted by drought and mundanity of this makes it arguably starvation. The “fatigue” referred to our more chilling than any of the mass exhaustion: We didn’t so much stop killings of recent years. Cruz was caring, just grew weary of the arrested as he walked down the street persistence and the frequency of the having finished his Subway drink. This appeals. Every visit to a supermarket should chill us to the bone every time was accompanied by the jangle of we take our children to school and see money in charity boxes. A walk on the dozens of other kids, many of them high street was impossible without at slurping from cans, with backpacks. It least one approach by a charity worker. should prompt us into wondering if the world is as safe as we imagined. It We marched past them, ignored the should force us to think whether television appeals and guiltlessly threw reasonless seemingly recreational away those envelopes bearing images abominations like this just normal parts of skeletal children. We didn’t feel cruel, of our everyday landscape. hateful or merciless — the repetitive invocation to contribute had simply worn us out. Our minds were transformed and provocations had little or no effect. I The distance between Parkland and our wonder if this is happening again. The homes appears untroublingly great. The killings should provoke us more than truth is, it isn’t. We don’t know our they do. Think about Parkland again. neighbors very well, we have relationships that we count as The suspect, Nikolas Cruz, 19, had friendships but are probably superficial been expelled (what the British call associations, we hug, kiss and greet “excluded”) from Marjory Stoneman others as if long-lost relatives, even Douglas High School in Parkland, though we probably saw them Florida. He returned to the school yesterday. Much of our lives gives an carrying a simple black duffel bag and impression of intimacy where there is the kind of backpack that practically really remoteness. Perhaps this is how

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we satisfy ourselves that “it couldn’t #MeToo became a conduit for the pent- happen here.” We live in a similar state up anger of the ages, a way of shocking of disunity to the United States; we just people, especially women, into like to believe otherwise. realization, a method of conferring strength on groups that might otherwise AN ANTIDOTE consider themselves weak and helpless. The movement stayed sensitive and Is there an antidote to the fatigue? perceptive, not by imposing agendas or Something to vitiate the existential programs, but by simply offering a anesthesia that leaves us insensitive to platform. Values, views, perspectives the pain that belongs to others, but and just plain, simple thoughts swept should be shared? Does the #MeToo around the world virally. #MeToo was movement offer a model? adversarial, but not forceful: Ordinary human beings with smartphones, tablets When sexual misconduct allegations and computers at their fingertips did all against Harvey Weinstein broke last the bidding. It deliberately perplexed year, few people outside Hollywood, or and provoked. That’s exactly what we without a working knowledge of the film need at the moment. industry, would have known about Weinstein. But it became the biggest When psychologists, neuroscientists news story of 2017, and its aftermath and health professionals bamboozle us turned it into arguably the most with endless studies about the addictive comprehensively covered event since properties of screens and the dire September 11, 2001. consequences of staring at them, and about how our preoccupation with digital The #MeToo movement played no small devices will bring about the ruination of part in preventing the Weinstein case community life, we should respond, Me becoming just another addition to the too! They may not have heard of it, of litany of episodes involving powerful course; they usually have little interest in men who use their positions to procure cultural context. But it has been a glory. sexual favors from women. #MeToo used social media to promote If ever we needed an equivalent to jolt awareness that not only had this kind of us out of our tiredness with killing, it is arrangement been commonplace for now. decades, but it was actually going on today. In a self-fulfilling way, it encouraged women, who might Ellis Cashmore is the author of otherwise have remained silent, to "Elizabeth Taylor," "Beyond Black" and reveal themselves and speak openly "Celebrity Culture." He is honorary about their experiences. In the process, professor of sociology at Aston their abusers were named and, University and has previously worked at sometimes, humiliated.

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the universities of Hong Kong and This goes for all of the victims: Their Tampa. absence on campus is simply unbearable.

To End Gun Violence, We I initially feared that Parkland would become a tragedy pitied by the Need Concrete Reform American public and then swiftly Kyrah Simon forgotten. I feared that it would spark a March 15, 2018 debate that would quickly dissipate. I feared that people would return back to Kyrah Simon, a junior at Marjory their lives and worry about which Stoneman Douglas High School and a celebrity was pregnant, which of their survivor of the February 14 shooting, favorite television shows were canceled weighs in on the debate around gun or what political scandal had surfaced. I reform. believe that this time is different. The nation is expressing its outrage online, As a survivor of the shooting at Marjory and media outlets are placing less Stoneman Douglas High School, gun attention on the shooter and more on violence has become personal to me. It the very issues that must be addressed. was an issue that upset me before, but I believe that we finally have a was too distant from my life to really captivated audience. matter. Now it has taken the life of my friend of over 10 years, Helena Ramsay, Laws must be put in place to rid our and 16 other innocent people. For country of these massacres. Florida has myself, the only way to move forward is one of the most lenient gun laws in the to establish concrete gun reform. US. Here, it is too easy to get hold of a rifle. At the age of just 19, Nikolas Cruz Following the shooting, my community was able to purchase an AR-15 and and I personally have struggled to take innocent lives with astounding maintain normalcy. My high school has ease. Although he was mentally been transformed into a cemetery. The disturbed, the real issue is how he was city of Parkland is swarmed by police able to access such a destructive vehicles and has become the topic of weapon in the first place. He blasted every news headline in the nation. apart walls and ripped into the flesh of human beings with less than a thought. The attack has garnered insurmountable From Newtown to Orlando and now grief. Speaking for myself and possibly Parkland, the AR-15 remains the other students, I feel a sense of weapon to blame, yet it can still be overwhelming anxiety and sadness bought over the counter. Why? returning back to campus. Helena’s empty desk is a reminder that I will It is because of organizations like the never see her again, and it is a painful National Rifle Association (NRA) that reality that I am unsure I can accept.

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defend the Second Amendment. Their Trump in Ottawa and representatives, such as spokeswoman Dana Loesch, have labeled the shooting Singapore: The World as a mental-health issue and any Turned Upside Down criticism of gun accessibility as a liberal- Gary Grappo led attack on their freedoms. June 13, 2018

The NRA’s power is intertwined with our The American president hasn’t just government. The pockets of numerous turned his back on and disparaged his conservative politicians are laced with country’s strongest allies — he NRA funds and, in effect, they push for embraced one of its worst sworn lenient gun laws and drown out the enemies. voices of those in opposition. The NRA hand picks politicians and financially Legend has it that in 1781, at the formal supports their campaigns, expecting surrender ceremony following George compensation for their contributions in Washington and the American votes. During the 2016 presidential revolutionaries’ decisive defeat of the elections, Donald Trump received over British Army under Lord General $30 million in NRA contributions, Charles Cornwallis at Yorktown, Senator Marco Rubio over $9,000. Virginia, the British Army band struck up Similarly, Florida Governor Rick Scott the now famous — or perhaps infamous has been a long-time advocate for gun for some — ballad. Britain was the rights and has an A+ rating from the global power of the time. Yet, it had NRA. been defeated by a ragtag army of farmers, merchants and shop-owners I will forever hang on to the belief that as led by a handful of professional soldiers. long as I and my fellow classmates use America has been turning the world our voices, we will be able to pass upside down ever since. stronger gun reforms and ensure that this never happens again. For Helena, In 1945, following a half-century of world for all of the victims and for the children wars, the Great Depression, a genocide, afraid to step foot in school, I will push a holocaust and a run of revolutions on for a better future. several continents, America helped turn the world right side up, bringing together nations to establish a rules-based, Kyrah Simon is a high school junior international order to ensure peace, interested in politics and racial relations. stability and prosperity. Now joined by She may not be the loudest voice in the well over 100 nations, that effort has US gun reform movement, but a largely lived up to its potential, though persistent voice speaking out since the not without hardship and challenges. Ferguson shooting in 2014. The one constant that the world could count on — nearly always — for those

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nearly 75 years was that America would that the US gets “unfairly clobbered” on be there to stand for stability, peace, trade despite “protecting Europe at great human rights, free trade and the rules- financial loss.” Then in Singapore, when based order. pressed by one journalist at the post- meeting press conference about trust Strike up the band again! Donald and verification of Kim’s Trump’s America appears to be denuclearization pledge (lavishly upending that — and in the span of less praised by Trump), the president than one week. Trump first dissed seemed to shrug it off. “Can you ensure America’s closest allies and best friends anything?” America won’t trust its best at the G-7 Summit in Ottawa, including friends to settle trade differences, but it France, which had dispatched its navy can accept the pledge of an avowed and army to fight with the Americans at enemy to eliminate its nuclear weapons. Yorktown. They also include Britain and Sorry Mr. Reagan, “trust, but verify” is Canada — yes, even Canada — as well just old-style diplomacy. Now America as post-World War II allies Germany, has a president who “alone can fix it.” Japan and Italy. The world was left aghast. For imagined and contrived offenses Trump and his administration admonish Days later in Singapore, he met with friends who are members of vital North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, leader of security alliances with the US and enjoy the world’s best known pariah state. top ratings for their human rights There Trump employed his self-touted records. But for the man who violated all dealmaker skills to schmooze, cajole international laws to produce and amass and even pander to the world’s most dozens of nuclear weapons, executed brutal dictator. Granted, his objective his uncle by firing squad, ordered a was vital and even noble — to murder-for-hire hit on his half-brother denuclearize the unpredictable and and operates gulags across the country threatening Hermit Kingdom. But for an estimated 80,000 to 130,000 following a meeting of less than two citizens for offenses against the “dear hours, including a 45-minute one-on- respected comrade” he has a “special session, he announced “a very special bond” and anoints him “honorable.” bond with Kim” and even declared, “I do trust him, yeah.” He wasn’t done either. In his meeting with Kim, Trump promised to suspend POLITICAL WHIPLASH joint US-South Korean exercises, a cornerstone of the US-South Korean The American president didn’t just turn defense alliance. The offer to Kim was his back on and disparage his country’s neither agreed nor discussed with strongest allies; he embraced one of its America’s two staunchest allies in the worst sworn enemies. Following Ottawa, Western Pacific, Japan and South Trump went into attack mode, tweeting Korea. (It was a really bad week for

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Japan, first the gut punch in Ottawa “America First.” He’s not outlined exactly followed by the sucker punch in what that includes. But more important, Singapore.) Yet, one of Trump’s many he and his supporters must understand criticisms of his predecessor’s nuclear what it means. First, this approach will deal with Iran in 2015 was that then- place the US on the same level of other President Barack Obama had failed to self-serving great and near-great adequately consult with and receive powers, most especially China and input from US allies, i.e., the Gulf States Russia, and also would-be challengers and Israel. His apparently spontaneous like Iran and even Turkey. Second, in offer to Kim flies in the face of his earlier such a scenario the world enters into a reproaches of Obama. new era of great power rivalry and competition for greater control — Trump’s supporters assert that the political, economic and military — as American people voted for him to “shake occurred in the late-19th and early 20th things up.” Starting with their revolution, centuries. Third, the great powers then Americans are not averse to shaking seek and recruit smaller states to form things up; it’s in their DNA. But the respective spheres of influence and then shaking mustn’t mean destroying, wait for opportunities to cleave off wiping the chessboard clean with portions of a rival’s sphere. nothing to replace it. It must be accompanied by shaping things up, too. The US, isolated geographically in North That is presenting a strategy for America, will be at a disadvantage. The genuinely addressing challenges. Trump rules-based order — the United Nations, has the shaking part but so far none of the International Monetary Fund, the the shaping. World Trade Organization, the International Criminal Court and other He cannot turn the world upside down recognized international and regional and then fail to offer a replacement bodies currently in place to resolve strategy for ensuring core interests of conflict — will have little sway. The his country and of others — peace, scenario leads to inevitable conflict as it security, stability and economic did with the First and Second World prosperity — and core values of liberty, Wars. Only in the early 21st century, the democracy, rule of law and respect for great powers — and even lesser ones human rights are preserved. For that, it — have nuclear, chemical, biological isn’t only American policies and actions and cyber weapons never imagined in that are necessary. As the pre-1945 era the early 20th. tragically demonstrated, America needs allies and friends to stand with it in FAREWELL TO FRIENDS pursuit of these shared goals. “America First” becomes America Some may proffer that Trump does have “alone.” That cannot be in its own or the an alternative strategy. It’s called international community’s interests. Yet

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Trump seems to be turning his back on possesses nearly 40 years of diplomatic America’s allies and best friends, those and public policy experience in a variety we typically turn to first in a crisis or of public, private and nonprofit conflict for support and consultation. endeavors. As a career member of the Instead, he embraces the world’s best Senior Foreign Service of the US known dictators, autocrats and Department of State, he served as potentates: North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, Envoy and Head of Mission of the Office Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi of the Quartet Representative, the Jinping, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, Honorable Mr. Tony Blair, in Jerusalem. Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Turkey’s Grappo is chairman of the Board of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Directors at Fair Observer. Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte.

Trump can’t be faulted for wanting to Midterm Elections 2018: The address trade imbalances that may disadvantage the US and American War for America’s Soul workers. But must he villainize Atul Singh governments that hold the same November 6, 2018 interests and values as the US? Neither can he be faulted for reaching out to Even as pundits predict and pontificate, Kim. It was a strategic necessity as is the midterm elections are only yet diplomacy with all real and perceived another battle for the commanding adversaries. But must he embrace and heights of America’s torn soul. exalt him and others who represent all that the US has stood against since its In Silicon Valley, the sun is shining and founding? Are these to be America’s it does not seem as if the US midterm new friends and allies? elections are taking place. This author meets few people who discuss or care The shaking up is easiest. It’s the much about politics or the elections. In shaping up — the formulating of this post-truth world created by social strategies, the securing of allies and the media, some still have the hubris to actual building — that is the most declare that their app is the best way to difficult. And in that, Trump is showing change the world. In their view, politics precious little capacity. His country and is too messy and it is a waste of time to the world are the worse for it. meddle with intractable problems involving the government.

Gary Grappo is a former US In other parts of the US, the elections ambassador and a distinguished fellow have a more real feel. The New York at the Center for Middle East Studies at Times has declared the battle for the Korbel School for International Congress to be close. The Washington Studies, University of Denver. He Post analyzes five possible scenarios for Election Day. In his analysis of the

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election, Jon Sopel of the BBC declares Cold War, but also the structure of its that the midterm elections “are ALL economy make it uniquely consumerist, about Donald Trump.” Sopel has a materialist and exceedingly capitalist. point. With the bully pulpit of the White The US has no National Health Service House at his disposal, Air Force One to à la its Anglo-Saxon mother ship, the ferry him around and 55 million followers UK. Decent health care is tied to one’s on Twitter, President Trump is proving job. College fees remain frighteningly to be a formidable and an indefatigable high. Childcare is prohibitively campaigner. expensive.

Historically, sitting presidents suffer in Cash is truly king in the US and even midterm elections. Bill Clinton, George dating apps are no exception. Premium W. Bush and Barack Obama found their members, who pay to play, can swipe till wings clipped after Americans placed the cows come home, while freeloaders their opponents in the US Congress. suffer a rationing of choices. An Arab Opinion polls indicate that this pattern friend, who wishes to remain unnamed, might be repeated and Democrats might remarked aptly, “In Amreeka, everything regain control of the House of is for sale.” So, money matters Representatives, if not the Senate. immensely in the land of the free and Pundits opine that the “pink wave” of a the home of the brave because record number of women candidates Americans cannot lean on the state, the might sweep aside a president with a community or the family as in other reputation for racism and misogyny. Yet parts of the world. And Trump has cut they might be missing two key facts. taxes, leaving families with more money in their pockets. FACT ONE: “THE ECONOMY, STUPID” Furthermore, the American economy is humming along quite nicely. Trump can The “dark genius” James Carville coined make the argument that solid growth, the phrase, “the economy, stupid” in the good job figures, rising consumer 1992 presidential campaign in which confidence, booming stock markets and unheralded Bill Clinton dethroned huge pools of capital flocking into the George H.W. Bush. The elder Bush was US are making America great again. by far the more qualified candidate, but When Americans get around to casting maverick candidate Ross Perot and an their ballots on November 6, they might economic downturn brought his worry that voting for the Democrats downfall. In 2018, Carville’s slogan still might jeopardize if not derail a holds true. flourishing economy. Therefore, they might tell pollsters one thing, but end up Culturally, America is one of the most doing another. “The economy, stupid” capitalist societies on the planet. Not brought Clinton to power. Soon, we will only years of indoctrination courtesy the

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know if it will help Trump retain his hold Davos.” Many find more than an on power. element of truth in Bannon’s argument.

FACT TWO: THOSE PESKY The migrant caravan that is headed IMMIGRANTS from the Guatemala-Mexico border to the Mexico-US one is triggering The US is an immigrant society. Most of subliminal fears among millions of the original inhabitants are conveniently Americans. President Trump has dead or in reservations like endangered responded by sending 5,200 troops to animals in a zoo. Wave after wave of the border, an active-duty force immigrants, largely from Europe, have comparable in size to the American come to American shores and, for military contingent in Iraq. This is the many, the Statue of Liberty defines the first time after the Mexican-American identity of this immigrant nation. War of 1846-48 that troops are back on the border. As journalist Annalisa Merelli brilliantly chronicles, fears of immigrants go back That war ended with the 1848 Treaty of all the way to Benjamin Franklin, Guadalupe Hidalgo and “Mexico ceded Alexander Hamilton and Thomas 55 percent of its territory, including parts Jefferson. Even before the formation of of present-day Arizona, California, New the US, Franklin worried that German Mexico, Texas, Colorado, Nevada, and immigrants might not assimilate well and Utah, to the United States.” This time, strain the social fabric of Pennsylvania. American troops are on the defense, not Worries about the Irish, the Jews and, in offense. Their goal is to save their particular, the Chinese have reared their country from a flood of poor Hispanic heads from time to time. In the late 19th immigrants. century, the populist movement shut the door to Chinese immigration, which only Trump played on this fear of mass opened again during World War II. immigration from south of the border by tweeting a clever video that portrays an Fears of unrestricted immigration run illegal immigrant smiling with glee and high in the US. Not only Republicans but expressing no remorse for killing two also Democrats have told this author policemen. It shows hordes of that such immigration depresses wages immigrants streaming toward the US in the US. Mexican immigrants do the and ends with a rallying cry, “Making hardest jobs in the US for a pittance. America Safe Again!” Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist and son of a blue collar WHAT NEXT? Democrat, points out that this suppresses wages, hurts “the Regardless of how Americans vote in deplorables” and benefits “the party of the midterms, the fundamental problems of American society will persist for now.

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As of now, Democrats are still haunted frayed. Only reasoned discourse, not by the Clintons who simply refuse to go frenzied demagoguery, will reknit these away. They have no new ideas on bonds and end the bitter war for student debt, education, health care, America’s soul. inequality, defense policy and even the environment. An Ivy League cabal of princelings rules the roost in the party Atul Singh is the founder, CEO and that claims to represent the poor and the editor-in-chief of Fair Observer. He has oppressed. And hysterical political taught political economy at the correctness has become the refuge of University of California, Berkeley and its leaders, the vast majority of whom been a visiting professor of humanities cannot think beyond clichés and sound and social sciences at the Indian bites. Institute of Technology, Gandhinagar. He studied philosophy, politics and On the other side, gun-loving and economics at the University of Oxford abortion-opposing Republicans have on the Radhakrishnan Scholarship and lost their cojones. Trump has conducted did an MBA with a triple major in a hostile takeover of the party of free finance, strategy and entrepreneurship trade and imposed mercantilism on it. at the Wharton School. Singh worked as He has hugged the Saudis ever closer, a corporate lawyer in London and led damned Iran and castigated the special operations as an elite officer in European Union. So far, there has been India’s volatile border areas where he no pushback from the Grand Old Party had many near-death experiences. of virtuous family values to any of Trump’s actions that militate against its long-cherished values. California Wildfires: It’s Time

In 2018, both parties have lost their to Tackle the Root of the souls. In the long run, it does not matter Problem who wins the battle for Congress. The Steve Westly midterm elections are just yet another November 23, 2018 battle in a long-drawn-out war between rival values, visions and interests for The real solution to reducing California’s America’s soul. The haves and have- wildfires lies in building a world-class nots, creditors and debtors, the secular economy that moves off carbon-based and the religious, the urban and the fuels to sustainable energy. rural, and so on and so forth are no longer speaking with each other. People Smoky skies and incinerated homes increasingly live in echo chambers and from wildfires are becoming the new are intolerant of those they disagree normal in the United States and other with. The common bonds that civilize countries throughout the world. Bad luck society and enable democracy are alone is not to blame. Climate change is

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creating drier weather and is dissipating small trees and brush — also causes the snow packs that feed our rivers the degradation of these watersheds. throughout the year. This creates deadly We should proactively manage the fire conditions. Worse yet, it now costs watersheds by reforesting areas that 12 times what it did in 1985 to fight capture snow and doing controlled these fires, draining state and local burns. Smarter management can budgets. Californians know that we are substantially reduce wildfire exposure. on the cutting edge of dealing with this problem. We need to get smart about Thirdly, utility companies also need to how to be on the cutting edge of solving make fire prevention a priority. The it. Here are four things our government California Department of Forestry and and utilities should be doing now. Fire Protection determined that PG&E’s power lines caused 16 of the Wine First of all, improved forest Country fires that killed 44 people and management: An ounce of prevention is caused $10 billion in damages last year. worth a pound of cure, and wildfire Here is what utilities can do to be part of management is no different. We can the solution. First, PG&E and other start by taking concrete steps to thin our companies need to use new forests. This requires that we increase technologies such as geospatial data to the logging of smaller-diameter trees ensure tree limbs are not making that are kindling for enormous fires. We contact with power lines. Low cost, high- also need to increase the area in which resolution satellite imagery and drone California allows controlled burns. technologies will make this traditionally Governor Jerry Brown took a major step difficult task much easier. Second, early toward this with an executive order fire detection and early warning to doubling the area where forest growth residents is essential. New technologies can be thinned with controlled burns. using LiDAR are available today that Governor-elect Gavin Newsom should that can detect fires within minutes. follow his example, further increasing Utility companies also need to take a the area where the state allows proactive role in more quickly using controlled burns. massive text/cell phone warning to do earlier evacuations. Third, every utility Secondly, smart watershed should follow San Diego Gas and management: Over one-third of Electric’s and PG&E’s lead by California’s land is forested, and these conducting strategic blackouts during forests house the vast majority of the high-wind events to reduce the risk of watersheds that hold snow mass and power line ignitions. provide water for the state well into the spring. The same poor forest Common sense and preventative management that enable major wildfires solutions are an important step to — such as allowing excessive reducing wildfires, and California should vegetation density and overpopulation of lead in each of these areas. But

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California’s most important contribution to stopping wildfires will be to continue to lead the world in stopping what is causing wildfires — global warming. We are doing this by creating an economy built on sustainable energy. In the 1970s, Californians passed catalytic converter legislation requiring automakers to make cleaner cars. Within a decade, every automaker in the world had retooled assembly plants to meet the regulations. Similarly, in 2015, the California legislature passed a law requiring utilities to produce 50% renewable energy from our electric grid by 2030. Critics scoffed, but we will meet that goal 10 years early.

No one wants more fires. We know how to reduce their likelihood and severity, but the real solution lies in building a world-class economy that moves off carbon-based fuels to sustainable energy. That’s a race we should all want California to win.

Steve Westly is the founder of The Westly Group, a large sustainability venture capital firm, and previously served as the controller and chief fiscal officer of the State of California from 2003 to 2007.

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