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The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013 David Gochis1 1 2 The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013 3 4 David Gochis1, Russ Schumacher2, Katja Friedrich3, Nolan Doesken2, Matt Kelsch1, Juanzhen 5 Sun1, Kyoko Ikeda1, Daniel Lindsey6, Andy Wood1, Brenda Dolan2, Sergey Matrosov3,4, Andrew 6 Newman1, Kelly Mahoney3, Steven Rutledge2, Richard Johnson2, Paul Kucera1, Pat Kennedy2, 7 Daniel Sempere-Torres5 , Matthias Steiner1, Rita Roberts1, Jim Wilson1, Wei Yu1, V. 8 Chandrasekar2, Roy Rasmussen1, Amanda Anderson1, Barbara Brown1 9 10 Submitted to: 11 The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 12 Date Submitted: 7 April, 2014 13 Revision Submitted: 12 August, 2014 14 15 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research 16 2. Colorado State University 17 3. University of Colorado 18 4. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth Systems Research Laboratory 19 5. Centre de Recerca Aplicada en Hidrometeorologia (CRAHI), Universitat Politecnica de 20 Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain 21 6. NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research 1 22 Corresponding author: David J. Gochis, NCAR/UCAR, 3090 Center Green Drive, Boulder, CO 23 80301, email: [email protected] 2 24 CAPSULE 25 A detailed overview of the uncharacteristic meteorological conditions that caused tropical-like, 26 widespread, heavy rainfall and catastrophic flooding across the Colorado Front Range in 27 September 2013. 28 29 ABSTRACT 30 During the second week of September 2013 a seasonally-uncharacteristic weather pattern 31 stalled over the Rocky Mountain Front Range region of northern Colorado bringing with it 32 copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the tropical Eastern 33 Pacific Ocean. This feed of moisture was funneled towards the east facing mountain slopes by 34 a series of mesoscale circulation features resulting in several days of unusually widespread 35 heavy rainfall over steep mountainous terrain. Catastrophic flooding ensued within several 36 Front Range river systems that washed away highways, destroyed towns, isolated communities, 37 necessitated days of airborne evacuations, and resulted in eight fatalities (NWS, 2014). The 38 impacts from heavy rainfall and flooding were felt over a broad region of northern Colorado 39 leading to 18 counties being designated as federal disaster areas and resulting in damages 40 exceeding $2B. This study explores the meteorological and hydrological ingredients that led to 41 this extreme event. After providing a basic timeline of events, synoptic and mesoscale 42 circulation features of the event are discussed. Particular focus is placed on documenting how 43 circulation features, embedded within the larger synoptic flow, served to funnel moist inflow 44 into the mountain front driving several days of sustained orographic precipitation. Operational 45 and research networks of polarimetric radar and surface instrumentation were used to evaluate 3 46 the cloud structures and dominant hydrometeor characteristics. The performance of several 47 quantitative precipitation estimates, quantitative precipitation forecasts, and hydrological 48 forecast products are also analyzed with the intention of identifying what monitoring and 49 prediction tools worked and where further improvements are needed. 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 4 61 Event Synopsis 62 During the period of 9-16 September 2013, a large area of heavy rainfall, with local amounts 63 exceeding 450 mm, fell over a broad region of the Colorado Front Range foothills and adjacent 64 plains (Figures 1 and 2). An event timeline shown in Figure 3 chronicles the sequence of events 65 both leading up to and following the core periods of heavy rainfall and flooding. The most 66 intense, widespread, and persistent rainfall along the Front Range occurred on 11-12 67 September. While flash-flooding from locally heavy rainfall in mountain canyons is not 68 uncommon in this region, many characteristics of the Sept. 2013 floods were exceptional. 69 These characteristics include the protracted duration of heavy rainfall and the widespread 70 spatial extent and prolonged duration of flooding, days to weeks following cessation of rainfall. 71 Not only were flooding impacts felt in narrow mountain canyons, but flooding across the Front 72 Range combined into a large-scale, multi-state flood event as tributary waters swelled and 73 flowed down the South Platte River onto the High Plains across Northeast Colorado and into 74 Nebraska. 75 76 The severe flooding of many regional river systems, localized flash flooding, and the landslides 77 and debris flows that occurred claimed eight lives and produced damage, exceeding US$2 78 billion (Adam Smith, National Climatic Data Center, personal communication and NWS, 2014) 79 to private and public properties in Front Range communities. Federal, state, and local 80 emergency response entities including multiple U.S. National Guard units were activated to 81 assist in rescue operations. Multiple communities in the region experienced massive 82 destruction, and recovery efforts continue as of this writing. The level of destruction caused by 5 83 the September floods of 2013 had not been witnessed in this region for several decades. 84 Compiling information from the Colorado Climate Center, the National Weather Service, the 85 United States Geological Survey, as well as State and Federal disaster response agencies, 86 Sidebar 1 lists some of the major societal impacts and Sidebar 2 details many of the 87 documented rainfall records that were set. As with any large natural disaster, these statistics 88 form only a thin wrapper on the physical and emotional costs incurred to individuals and 89 communities that have had to live through such events. 90 91 This study documents the climatological, meteorological, and surface hydrological processes 92 responsible for producing such widespread destruction. The multi-day event is examined from 93 the perspective of the causative mechanisms for heavy rainfall and associated hydrologic 94 responses. We explore the event in terms of large-scale moisture transport patterns, the 95 mesoscale features that localized heavy rainfall, and the storm- and cloud-scale processes that 96 were observed by a comparatively rich and technologically-advanced observational network, 97 though many of those observations were not available in real-time. In addition, this article 98 recounts the event in the context of operational quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE), 99 quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF), and operational flood forecasts. While the system 100 that produced heavy rainfall occurred over a one-week period (9-16 September) and covered a 101 large, multi-state area, this article primarily focuses on the period of 11-13 September in 102 Boulder and Larimer Counties of Colorado’s northern Front Range, arguably the area most 103 severely impacted by the September floods. It is important to note that several other areas of 104 intense rainfall and flooding took place simultaneously in regions east and south of the 6 105 northern Colorado Front Range, and also in parts of New Mexico and southern Wyoming. A 106 complete description including these other areas is beyond the scope of this study. 107 108 The hydrometeorological processes described herein are organized according to space and time 109 scales over which those processes operated ranging from the large-continental, synoptic- 110 climatic setting down to the scale of small watersheds. The “large-scale” circulation setting (i.e. 111 1000’s of km) in the period leading up to and during the flood event is described along with a 112 chronology of heavy precipitation episodes along with a more “regional”, or mesoscale (i.e., 10- 113 100s of km), description of atmospheric features that played important roles in localizing the 114 regional rainfall patterns and contributed to episodes of particularly intense rainfall. Findings 115 from a focused analysis of “cloud-scale” processes of several different cloud and precipitation 116 observational platforms that were operating during the event are then given. A chronology of 117 the flooding generated by the heavy rainfall follows along with a summary discussion of runoff 118 generation processes that played significant roles in translating rainfall into streamflow. A 119 brief analyses of several of the operational quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) is then 120 provided followed by a short summary of several quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) 121 products and National Weather Service (NWS) operational streamflow predictions. We 122 conclude with a summary of lessons learned from this event so far and enumerate some of the 123 opportunities for incorporating these findings into future hydrometeorological prediction 124 systems. Lastly, while there is much to be learned from the shared experiences of people and 125 institutions in coping with such natural disasters, this is outside the scope of this work. 7 126 Therefore, we only attempt to provide a high-level, comprehensive overview of the 127 hydrometeorological processes occurring during the September 2013 flooding event. 128 129 The Synoptic Setting 130 The large-scale atmospheric pattern that supported persistent heavy rainfall in northern 131 Colorado during 10-16 September 2013 consisted of a blocking ridge over the Canadian Rockies 132 and a slow-moving, cutoff, upper-level cyclonic circulation to its south over the western U.S. 133 (Fig. 4a and b). The blocking anticyclone assisted in keeping the western-U.S. cutoff circulation 134 in place for
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