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Download This PDF File Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business – January-April, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2016 Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business Vol. 18, No. 1 (January-April, 2016): 83-105 Debunking the Monday Irrationality through the External Affection of Investors Rayenda Brahmana,1 Chee-Wooi Hooy,2 and Zamri Ahmad 2 1 Faculty of Economics and Business Universiti Malaysia Sarawak 2 School of Management Universiti Sains Malaysia Abstract: This study aims to reveal the mechanism of the influences of the full moon and high tempera- tures on investors’ Monday irrationality. In contrast to other studies, this research was built under a retroductive approach by using a time series quasi experimental study. Investors were directly assessed for their irrationality by using an adapted psychometric test on 4 occasions. The results indicate that there were indeed effects of the full moon and high temperatures on investors’ irrationality. Because the full moon and high temperatures frequently occurred on Mondays, it is most probably those two variables that were the drivers of the Monday irrationality. In the end, we concluded that the rational behaviour assumption can no longer be held. Instead of rationality, the investors were quasi rational. The utility function of Von Neumann-Morgenstern in decision making has to be replaced by the hedonic utility. Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengungkap mekanisme pengaruh bulan purnama dan suhu ting gi terhadap irasionalitas Senin pada investor. Berbeda dengan studi lain, penelitian ini dibangun di baw ah pendekatan retroductive dengan menggunakan studi eksperimental kuasi runtun waktu. Investor dinilai secara langsung untuk irasionalitas mereka dengan menggunakan tes psikometrik yang dilakukan empat kali. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa memang ada efek bulan purnama dan suhu tinggi pada irasionalitas para investor. Karena bulan purnama dan suhu tinggi sering terjadi pada hari Senin, hal ini sangat mungkin kedua variabel tersebut yang menjadi pendorong irasionalitas pada hari Senin. Pada akhirnya, kami menyimpulkan bahwa asumsi perilaku rasional tidak dapat lagi menjadi pegangan. Bukannya rasionalitas, para investor merupakan pelaku rasional semu. Fungsi utilitas Von Neumann-Morgenstern dalam pengambilan keputusan harus diganti oleh utilitas hedonik. Keywords: experimental economics; high temperature; Monday irrationality; moon phase; psychological biases JEL classification: C93, G02, G19, O16 * Corresponding author’s e-mail: [email protected] 83 ISSN: 11 41-1128 htt p://journal.ugm.ac.id/gamaijb Brahmana et al. Introduction 1992; Yahyazadehfar et al. 2006). Thus, re- search that has investigated it empirically, The rational motive for investment is especially from the psychological point of value optimization, where investors tend to view, is rarely found. Hence, linking the trad- buy low, wait for the price to increase, then ing behavior with psychological perspectives hopefully sell at the peak, and thus make a might give a new explanation for MI. This is profit. This mechanism is modeled by con- in line with what is proposed in the psychol- ventional economics under the assumption ogy literature, such as by Krebs and Blackman of rational behavior. However, this tradi- (1999), who addressed three stimulants of tional tenet has been hugely disputed by be- human behavior, affection, learning, and the havioral scholars; for instance Kahneman and cognitive, in human psychology which can Tversky (1979), who proposed the prospect cause biased or irrational decision making. theory, that stated that the behavior of indi- In the perspective of the prospect viduals was different due to different situa- theory, this MI is driven by psychological fac- tions of uncertainty, and argued that losses tors, and might be caused by a perception bias. hurt more than gains felt good. This theory This means that MI’s occurrence might be due addressed the psychological biases that have to psychological factors such as affection and intervened in the process of editing and cognition. Previous research by Abraham and evaluation in decision making (Daniel et al. Ikenberry (1994), and Wong et al. (1992), 1998; Brahmana et al. 2012b). addressed trading behavior as the explanation One of the tenet violation dossiers of of this MI, yet rarely found that research had traditional economics is the day-of-the-week investigated it empirically; a gap that this anomaly or the Monday Irrationality (hereaf- study wants to fill. Therefore, this research ter MI). First documented by French (1980), aims to investigate the psychological drivers it shows that stock returns on Mondays have of MI from the psychological perspective. significant differences compared to the other Interestingly, the anomalies in our natu- days, indicating that investors behave differ- ral environment are in line with this MI, for ently on Mondays. The importance of the MI instance the research paper of Forster and has been addressed by many scholars. For in- Solomon (2003). By using surface measure- stance, Bell and Levin (1998) found the role ments of maximum and minimum tempera- of MI on the efficiency of the market. Chen tures from the Global Daily Climatologically and Singal (2003) labeled the best day for Network data set, they documented that speculative trading or active trading is dur- many climate stations in the world reported ing the MI. There are also Angel et al. (2003) high temperature levels from Saturday to who mentioned that the best trading day for Monday, similar occasions to MI. Our plot short selling is during the weekend effect. In also showed the same. Temperature season- short, MI has practical importance for active ality in global temperatures documented the investing. Monday temperatures as being relatively Much research into MI has proposed the higher than those of other weekdays. The investors’ behavior as an explanation of the range of the Monday temperatures rises from anomalous market conditions (see Abraham around 26oC up to around 33oC. However, and Ikenberry 1994; Clare et al. 1995; the temperature range for the other days is Berument and Kiymaz 2001; Wong et al. between 16oC up to 30oC; which implies that 84 Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business – January-April, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2016 Mondays are relatively hotter than the other nality. For instance Muhammad and Ismail days on average. This is in line with the MI in (2008) addressed that Malaysian investors the stock market. Mother nature also has an- tended to follow sentiment. It is strengthened other anomaly, where the full moon-new by Wong and Lai (2009) who stated that moon occurs more on Mondays than on other Malaysian investors had representativeness weekdays (see Figure 1). This preliminary bias and overconfidence in their trading ac- finding encourages us to surmise the role of tivities. However, these arguments were re- the full moon on the investors’ MI. If the full futed by Lai and Lai (2010) who found that moon occurs more on Mondays, and contrib- Malaysian investors were rational in terms of utes to human behavior, it is possible that their reference dependence. Lastly, the unique MI is caused by the phases of the moon. environment of Malaysia, because of its po- Malaysia is chosen as the sample for the sition in the equatorial region, means the tem- research because this country offers a unique peratures should be the same throughout the environment for examining the role of exter- year. Hence, it makes this research more in- nal factors on stock trading performance. teresting, as many scholars have found no Firstly, Malaysia is one of the fast-growing relationship between temperatures and stock emerging markets, with a high FDI, stable returns (see Trombley 1997; Kramer and economic growth, and huge market capitali- Runde 1997; Pardo and Valor 2003). As zation (see Goh and Wong 2011). Secondly, in those researchers tested in developed and terms of the behavior of market participants, four-season countries, the findings of this many research papers have found the irratio- research enrich the available literature. Figure 1. Frequency of the New Moon and the Full Moon Across the Weekend 35 30 25 20 Full 15 New 10 5 0 Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Note: Y axis is the numbers of occurrences; Mon is Monday, Tue is Tuesday, Wed is Wednesday, Thu is Thursday, Fri is Friday, Sat is Saturday, and Sun is Sunday 85 Brahmana et al. Friday 32 28 24 20 16 12 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Monday 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Thursday 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 86 Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business – January-April, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2016 Figure 2. Continued Tuesday 32 28 24 20 16 12 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Wednesday 32 28 24 20 16 12 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Note: X axis is the frequency; Y axis is the temperature level The main focus of our study is how 1995; Berument and Kiymaz 2001; Brahmana nature influences the investors’ trading deci- et al. 2012b), based on our knowledge, no sions, whereby full moon phases and tempera- research has examined the relationship, es- ture are the sources of the investors’ irratio- pecially in an experimental study. nality. Those two variables shape the moods This study is different from other stud- and the cognition of investors, which leads ies in 4 senses. Firstly, it takes and elaborates to their stock performances. Note that even the behavioral psychological perspective, though much research has attempted to ex- which states that external factors are the plore the deter minants of this MI (see source of moods, in answering the market Abraham and Ikenberry 1994; Clare et al. anomaly. Secondly, it is constructed under a 87 Brahmana et al. retroductive design where an experimental in their decision making.
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