INTERNATIONAL Equity ADR 2017 Year End Report
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INTERNATIONAL EQUitY ADR 2017 Year End Report COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE (% TOTAL RETURN) FOR PERIODS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 20171 3 MONTHS 1 YEAR 3 YEARS2 5 YEARS2 10 YEARS2 SINCE INCEPTION2,3 HL INTL EQUITY ADR (GROSS OF FEES) 4.06 29.66 10.35 9.05 5.48 8.61 HL INTL EQUITY ADR (NET OF FEES) 3.88 28.79 9.59 8.28 4.71 7.74 MSCI ALL COUNTry WORLD EX-US INDEX4,5 5.06 27.77 8.32 7.28 2.31 5.46 MSCI EAFE INDEX5,6 4.27 25.62 8.29 8.38 2.42 5.07 1The Composite performance returns shown are preliminary; 2Annualized Returns; 3Inception Date: December 31, 1989 corresponds to that of the linked International Equity Composite; 4The Benchmark Index; 5Gross of withholding taxes; 6Supplemental Index. Please read the above performance in conjunction with the footnotes on page 11 of this report. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All performance and data shown are in US dollar terms, unless otherwise noted. SECTOR EXPOSURE (%) TABLE OF CONTENTS HL INTL ADR ACWI EX-US (UNDER) / OVER THE BENCHMARK 2 | Market Review HEALTH CARE 17.0 7.6 3 | Performance and Attribution INFO TECHNOLOGY 20.2 11.5 4 | Perspective and Outlook CASH 2.4 – INDUSTRIALS 12.9 11.9 6 | Portfolio Highlights MATERIALS 7.1 8.2 9 | Portfolio Holdings ENERGY 5.5 6.7 10 | Portfolio Facts CONS STAPLES 7.3 9.6 REAL ESTATE 0.7 3.2 UTILITIES 0.0 2.9 MARKET REVIEW FINANCIALS 19.6 23.1 Markets capped a strong year with TELECOM SERVICES 0.0 4.0 a positive final quarter. Economic CONS DISCRETIONAry 7.3 11.3 growth across all major regions remained positive and synchronized, (12.0)-12.0 (6.0)-6.0 0.00.0 6.06.0 12.012.0 while inflation was subdued. GEOGRAPHIC EXPOSURE (%) For the full year, stocks turned in their strongest gain since the market HL INTL ADR ACWI EX-US (UNDER) / OVER THE BENCHMARK recovery of 2009. EM companies showed the fastest earnings growth EUROPE EMU 33.8 22.3 of any region, currency effects aside. CASH 2.4 – Stocks of the fastest-growing MIDDLE EAST 2.5 0.3 businesses outperformed the OTHER7 1.6 – slowest-growing in the year by an FRONTIER MARKETS8 0.0 – exceptionally wide margin. PACIFIC EX-JAPAN 7.6 8.2 PORTFOLIO HIGHLIGHTS EUROPE EX-EMU 19.8 21.3 The long-term changes wrought CANADA 2.3 6.6 by the internet unevenly affect EMERGING MARKETS 20.1 24.8 the competitive structures of JAPAN 9.9 16.5 industries and the fortunes of their constituents. (12.0)-12.0 (6.0)-6.0 0.00.0 6.06.0 12.012.0 7Includes companies classified in countries outside the Index; 8Includes countries with less-developed markets outside the Index. We increased our holdings in Financials and Information Technology over the year, although our portfolio weights in each sector Sector and geographic allocations are supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant remain very different relative to the International Equity ADR Composite GIPS Presentation. index. Source: Harding Loevner International Equity ADR Model; MSCI Inc. and S&P. MSCI Inc. and S&P do not make any express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any GICS data contained herein. 2017 Year End Report | 1 MARKET REVIEW MARKET PERFORMANCE (USD %) MARKET 4Q 2017 TRAILING 12 MONTHS Markets capped a strong year with a positive final quarter, extending the MSCI All Country World (ACW) ex-US Index’s CANADA 4.5 16.9 streak of positive monthly returns to a record 13 months. Eco- EMERGING MARKETS 7.5 37.7 nomic growth across all major regions remained positive and EUROPE EMU 1.1 29.0 synchronized, while inflation was subdued. In Europe, the EUROPE EX-EMU 3.5 23.6 European Central Bank (ECB) remained accommodative on JAPAN 8.5 24.4 monetary policy, although it signaled a slowing pace of bond buying. China’s economy gathered momentum, shrugging off MIDDLE EAST 4.2 2.6 concerns over government corruption crackdowns and shaky PACIFIC EX-JAPAN 7.0 26.0 property loans, with positive pull-through effects on its trading MSCI ACW EX-US INDEX 5.1 27.8 partners. Japanese economic growth edged higher, while infla- SECTOR PERFORMANCE (USD %) tion remained positive—a critical policy goal. OF THE MSCI ACW EX-US INDEX Japan was the top-performing “region” in the fourth quarter, SECTOR 4Q 2017 TRAILING 12 MONTHS followed by Emerging Markets (EMs), particularly South Af- CONSUMER DISCRETIONAry 6.2 28.6 rica, South Korea, and India. The eurozone lagged, beset by CONSUMER STAPLES 5.5 24.5 election results that renewed uncertainty over the region’s co- ENERGY 7.5 17.2 hesion: two referenda on Catalonia’s independence from Spain bookended an inconclusive German election that left Chancel- FINANCIALS 4.6 26.7 lor Angela Merkel unable as yet to form a coalition government. HEALTH CARE 1.3 19.0 INDUSTRIALS 4.8 29.8 All sectors except Utilities posted positive returns in the quar- INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 6.2 51.5 ter. Materials, Energy, Information Technology (IT), and Con- MATERIALS 8.5 32.6 sumer Discretionary companies in particular benefited from rising expectations for sustained global demand. Health Care REAL ESTATE 5.6 27.0 lagged, as governments and insurers continued to exert their TELECOM SERVICES 1.6 15.1 bargaining power to resist price increases from pharmaceutical UTILITIES -0.3 19.2 companies. Source: FactSet (as of December 31, 2017); MSCI Inc. and S&P. For the full year, stocks turned in their strongest gain since China and South Korea—specifically their contingents of po- the market recovery of 2009. Analysts called for double-digit tent IT companies—led EMs to the best performance by region growth in corporate earnings in all major regions and, unusual- in 2017. A declining US dollar augmented local market returns ly, revised their early forecasts upwards as the year progressed, in most major regions. The euro’s 14% appreciation against the as seen in the chart below. EM companies showed the fastest US dollar boosted the eurozone’s subpar local returns. earnings growth of any region, currency effects aside. The IT sector returned nearly double the index return, as IT companies The MSCI ACW ex-US Growth Index outperformed its Value coun- reported accelerating earnings growth that often exceeded ex- terpart for the year in all regions. Stocks of the fastest-growing pectations. The strongest growth came especially from the larg- businesses outperformed the slowest-growing by an exceptionally est businesses: the internet giants—primarily based in China wide margin of almost 30 percentage points in the year. Many of (or the US)—enjoyed large network effects, while semiconduc- those rapid growers were also the most expensive stocks, on sim- tor manufacturers exploited the benefits of scale and subdued ple rules of thumb, but that did not deter investors from pushing rivalry to improve profitability. them higher. Quality effects on relative performance were modest. MSCI ACW EX-US INDEX EPS GROWTH ESTIMATES (US$) MSCI ACW EX-MSUSC I INDACWE IXndex PER PerformanceFORMANCE by B GYrowth GRO 2017WTH 2017 30%30.0 50.050 25.2% 20%20.0 40.040 30.030 10%10.0 5.6% 20 Return (%) Return 20.0 Estimates (%) 0%0.0 -1.4% -2.6% -4.4% 10.010 -6.5% -10.0-10% 0.00 FFastestastest SSlowestlowest 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Please see the footnote on the following page, which pertains to the charts Source: MSCI Inc., FactSet. Data as of December 31, 2017. displaying performance by Growth, Value, and Quality. 2 MSCI ACW EX-UMSSC IIND ACWxUEX SP IndexERFO PerformanceRMANCE byB YV alueVAlue 2017 2017 Despite our overweight in IT, one of the best-performing sec- 50.050 tors this quarter, we suffered from poor stock selection. Chi- nese internet-search firm Baidu and security software provider 40.040 Check Point Software Technologies both guided to weaker fourth-quarter earnings. Our overweight in Health Care also 30.030 hurt performance, though it was somewhat offset by good rela- Return (%) Return 20.020 tive performance from the Japanese clinical-testing equipment manufacturer Sysmex. 10.010 Viewed by region, we had good stocks in Pacific ex-Japan (DBS 0.00 Least Most and AIA) and in Japan (Fanuc and Sysmex). Stock selection in LeastExpensive Exp. MExpensiveost Exp. EMs was the largest detractor in the quarter, especially within China (Baidu) and Mexico (commercial bank GF Banorte). MSCI ACWxUS Index Performance by Quality 2017 MSCI ACW EX-US INDEX PERFORMANCE BY QUALITY 2017 50.050 40.040 SECTOR PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION 30.030 TRAILING 12 MONTHS INTERNATIONAL EQUITY ADR COMPOSITE VS. MSCI ACW EX-US INDEX Return (%) Return 20.020 3.0 Total Effect: 1.6 10.010 Selection Effect: 0.8 Allocation Effect: 0.8 0.00 1.5 HHighestighest LowestLowest Source: FactSet. Data as of December 31, 2017. MSCI Inc. and S&P. 0.0 The preceding charts divide the market into quintiles according to Hard- Effect (%) ing Loevner’s Quality, Growth, and Value rankings, which are proprietary -1.5 measures determined using objective data. Quality rankings are based on the stability, trend, and level of profitability, as well as balance sheet strength. Growth rankings are based on historical growth of earnings, -3.0 sales, and assets, as well as expected changes in earnings and profit- L L U ST ER CR TH TI OM L ability.